9 ms·

I think the subtext of the last few weeks is the Anthropic was becoming severely capacity constrained (or approaching that). They seem to have had to sign two s

I think the subtext of the last few weeks is the Anthropic was becoming severely capacity constrained (or approaching that). They seem to have had to sign two somewhat adverse contracts with Amazon and Google in short succession. suddenly model quality is back up again.

Onavo 5mo ago
Well to a certain extent it also blunts competition, Gemini is less of a threat if their main investor is also backing Anthropic. The issue is when the pyramid scheme collapses...
- ValentineC 5mo ago
  Both Amazon and Google provide the Claude models via their Kiro and Antigravity IDEs respectively. It could also be investing in their attempt to own the IDE space.
- inquirerGeneral 5mo ago
  [dead]
tiffanyh 5mo ago
That’s what’s needed when you go from $9B in ARR … to $30B in ARR literally just one quarter later. That kind of insane growth & demand is unprecedented at that scale. https://www.anthropic.com/news/google-broadcom-partnership-compute https://www.anthropic.com/news/google-broadcom-partnership-c...
- iLoveOncall 5mo ago
  Run-rate revenue is not ARR. For all we know they could have a revenue of $100 and claim a run-rate revenue of $30B. Given the fact that both Altman and Amodei are pathological liars, there's absolutely no reason to believe that Anthropic has $30B ARR.
  - siva7 5mo ago
    the fact!?
    - applfanboysbgon 5mo ago
      I don't follow Anthropic closely enough to know what claims its CEO has made, but it is factual that Altman is a pathological liar. You can observe this for yourself by reading and listening to the things he says and then comparing them to reality. We have years of evidence to look back on. The chasm between Altman's reality and everyone else's is so large and so well-known that it was one of the chief factors cited by the board when he was fired. (I would then argue that he was re-hired specifically because others involved with OpenAI understood that it is literally his job to lie and that OpenAI would not be where it is today as a corporate behemoth rather than a research non-profit without a world-class liar marketing it, but that is merely conjecture.)
    - kllrnohj 5mo ago
      I mean.. kinda everything about Mythos for example? Anthropic has a good product, but they also pretty consistently say some stupid ass shit if you're being generous, and blatant lies if you aren't
      - Danox 5mo ago
        Stand clear of the blast crater not everyone in tech bought the con…
  - senordevnyc 5mo ago
    For all we know they could have a revenue of $100 and claim a run-rate revenue of $30B. Can you explain how that’d work? What would the $30B figure be based on if they only have $100 in revenue?
    - DavidSJ 5mo ago
      There are about 30 million seconds in a year. If they made $100 over the last hundred milliseconds, then that’s $30B annualized. (That said, their numbers are much realer than that.)
- an0malous 5mo ago
  What is all this AI doing? People are spending 10’s to 100’s of billions and no service or technology seems better or cheaper. Everything is more expensive and worse.
  - inquirerGeneral 5mo ago
    [dead]
  - Jagerbizzle 5mo ago
    I'm burning an insane number of tokens 8-12 hours a day for the dramatic improvement of some internal tooling at a big tech company. Using it heavily for an unannounced future project as well. I presume I'm not the only one.
    - hellisothers 5mo ago
      Same and it is working really well (I say contra to most individual reporting).
      - andriy_koval 5mo ago
        I have some coworker who says something similar, he vibe coded tons of cryptic code, which indeed solves some problem though could be way more compact and well structured. Now it is hitting complexity limitation, since llm now cant comprehend it, and human cant comprehend it by large a margin.
        vbezhenar 5mo ago
        Just wait a month, Opus 4.8 will comprehend it for sure.
        overfeed 5mo ago
        it will comprehend it well enough to complicate it further into a rats-nest that only Opus 4.9 can comprehend, and so on. Good luck if you run into a bug before the N+1 version launches.
Sol- 5mo ago
Perhaps the adversity of the contracts cancels out with their sudden success and increase in valuation and it ends up a wash compared to the counterfactual scenario where they would have speculated on high growth early on.
data-ottawa 5mo ago
It takes me 6 minutes minimum to get a response in the last 3 days, I don’t think model capacity is better.
- __turbobrew__ 5mo ago
  It seems like they shifted heavily to prioritizing enterprise users. Starting in the last day or two I started getting much faster responses on an enterprise plan.
deleted 5mo ago
[deleted]
mrandish 5mo ago
> suddenly model quality is back up again. I agree about the core motivation behind these deals, however I'm skeptical as to how "suddenly" we'll see substantial improvements. Despite their size, I'd be surprised if Google or Amazon had uncommitted chunks of Anthropic-scale, top-tier AI compute sitting around waiting to be activated. They're already over-subscribed and waiting for new data centers (and power plants) to come online. I suspect Anthropic will get a modest amount of new capacity right away with more added over coming quarters. These two deals don't change the total amount of AI compute available on planet Earth over the next 18 months. Anthropic parting with high-value equity has now made them the new highest bidder for an already over-bid resource. I suspect the net impact will be Amazon & Google pushing prices even higher on everyone else as they reallocate compute to their new top whale.
- HWR_14 5mo ago
  > Despite their size, I'd be surprised if Google or Amazon had uncommitted chunks of Anthropic-scale, top-tier AI compute sitting around waiting to be activated. I doubt it was idle capacity. But for a chunk of equity in Anthropic I imagine they are willing to deprioritize other, possibly internal, uses. Certainly anything that's not contractually obligated could be on the chopping block.
- dannyw 5mo ago
  When people are moving from other models (e.g. GPT, Gemini, etc) the compute that is previously powering that inference now becomes available. Of course, I'm certainly doubtful that Google would break commits and give OpenAI GPUs to Anthropic, but the underlying effect is present and probably sorted out somehow. It's not completely net new compute for the world.
elAhmo 5mo ago
You really think that for companies of this size, signing a contract would immediately reflect in you as end user noticing improved model quality?
scoot 5mo ago
> suddenly model quality is back up again Is that not down to this? https://www.anthropic.com/engineering/april-23-postmortem https://www.anthropic.com/engineering/april-23-postmortem
ux266478 5mo ago
They should probably look at moving away from general purpose hardware for their actual products, and reserve GP hardware for RnD. You don't need frontier nodes to run circles around GPGPUs, an ASIC made with 28nm is more than enough to embarrass an H100 (and much cheaper) AI is in such desperate need to adopt software-hardware co-development practices, it's infuriating watching the industry drag its feet about it. We are wasting so much electricity and absolutely wrecking the "free" market just because these companies are incentivized to work at an unsustainable breakneck speed in getting shit to market.
dakolli 5mo ago
another llm user exhibiting the behavior of a gambling addict "That table is cold this week" "that machine is't hot, you wont win on it" Every month llm users are coming up with reasons why they think the model is under preforming from some occulted reasoning only they perceive. Maybe you're just frying your brain by using llms the way you do.
sovenyr 5mo ago
[dead]

Onavo 5mo ago

Well to a certain extent it also blunts competition, Gemini is less of a threat if their main investor is also backing Anthropic. The issue is when the pyramid scheme collapses...

ValentineC 5mo ago
Both Amazon and Google provide the Claude models via their Kiro and Antigravity IDEs respectively. It could also be investing in their attempt to own the IDE space.
inquirerGeneral 5mo ago
[dead]

tiffanyh 5mo ago

That’s what’s needed when you go from $9B in ARR … to $30B in ARR literally just one quarter later. That kind of insane growth & demand is unprecedented at that scale. https://www.anthropic.com/news/google-broadcom-partnership-compute https://www.anthropic.com/news/google-broadcom-partnership-c...

iLoveOncall 5mo ago
Run-rate revenue is not ARR. For all we know they could have a revenue of $100 and claim a run-rate revenue of $30B. Given the fact that both Altman and Amodei are pathological liars, there's absolutely no reason to believe that Anthropic has $30B ARR.
- siva7 5mo ago
  the fact!?
  - applfanboysbgon 5mo ago
    I don't follow Anthropic closely enough to know what claims its CEO has made, but it is factual that Altman is a pathological liar. You can observe this for yourself by reading and listening to the things he says and then comparing them to reality. We have years of evidence to look back on. The chasm between Altman's reality and everyone else's is so large and so well-known that it was one of the chief factors cited by the board when he was fired. (I would then argue that he was re-hired specifically because others involved with OpenAI understood that it is literally his job to lie and that OpenAI would not be where it is today as a corporate behemoth rather than a research non-profit without a world-class liar marketing it, but that is merely conjecture.)
  - kllrnohj 5mo ago
    I mean.. kinda everything about Mythos for example? Anthropic has a good product, but they also pretty consistently say some stupid ass shit if you're being generous, and blatant lies if you aren't
    - Danox 5mo ago
      Stand clear of the blast crater not everyone in tech bought the con…
- senordevnyc 5mo ago
  For all we know they could have a revenue of $100 and claim a run-rate revenue of $30B. Can you explain how that’d work? What would the $30B figure be based on if they only have $100 in revenue?
  - DavidSJ 5mo ago
    There are about 30 million seconds in a year. If they made $100 over the last hundred milliseconds, then that’s $30B annualized. (That said, their numbers are much realer than that.)
an0malous 5mo ago
What is all this AI doing? People are spending 10’s to 100’s of billions and no service or technology seems better or cheaper. Everything is more expensive and worse.
- inquirerGeneral 5mo ago
  [dead]
- Jagerbizzle 5mo ago
  I'm burning an insane number of tokens 8-12 hours a day for the dramatic improvement of some internal tooling at a big tech company. Using it heavily for an unannounced future project as well. I presume I'm not the only one.
  - hellisothers 5mo ago
    Same and it is working really well (I say contra to most individual reporting).
    - andriy_koval 5mo ago
      I have some coworker who says something similar, he vibe coded tons of cryptic code, which indeed solves some problem though could be way more compact and well structured. Now it is hitting complexity limitation, since llm now cant comprehend it, and human cant comprehend it by large a margin.
      - vbezhenar 5mo ago
        Just wait a month, Opus 4.8 will comprehend it for sure.
        overfeed 5mo ago
        it will comprehend it well enough to complicate it further into a rats-nest that only Opus 4.9 can comprehend, and so on. Good luck if you run into a bug before the N+1 version launches.

Sol- 5mo ago

Perhaps the adversity of the contracts cancels out with their sudden success and increase in valuation and it ends up a wash compared to the counterfactual scenario where they would have speculated on high growth early on.

data-ottawa 5mo ago

It takes me 6 minutes minimum to get a response in the last 3 days, I don’t think model capacity is better.

__turbobrew__ 5mo ago
It seems like they shifted heavily to prioritizing enterprise users. Starting in the last day or two I started getting much faster responses on an enterprise plan.

deleted 5mo ago

[deleted]

mrandish 5mo ago

> suddenly model quality is back up again. I agree about the core motivation behind these deals, however I'm skeptical as to how "suddenly" we'll see substantial improvements. Despite their size, I'd be surprised if Google or Amazon had uncommitted chunks of Anthropic-scale, top-tier AI compute sitting around waiting to be activated. They're already over-subscribed and waiting for new data centers (and power plants) to come online. I suspect Anthropic will get a modest amount of new capacity right away with more added over coming quarters. These two deals don't change the total amount of AI compute available on planet Earth over the next 18 months. Anthropic parting with high-value equity has now made them the new highest bidder for an already over-bid resource. I suspect the net impact will be Amazon & Google pushing prices even higher on everyone else as they reallocate compute to their new top whale.

HWR_14 5mo ago
> Despite their size, I'd be surprised if Google or Amazon had uncommitted chunks of Anthropic-scale, top-tier AI compute sitting around waiting to be activated. I doubt it was idle capacity. But for a chunk of equity in Anthropic I imagine they are willing to deprioritize other, possibly internal, uses. Certainly anything that's not contractually obligated could be on the chopping block.
dannyw 5mo ago
When people are moving from other models (e.g. GPT, Gemini, etc) the compute that is previously powering that inference now becomes available. Of course, I'm certainly doubtful that Google would break commits and give OpenAI GPUs to Anthropic, but the underlying effect is present and probably sorted out somehow. It's not completely net new compute for the world.

elAhmo 5mo ago

You really think that for companies of this size, signing a contract would immediately reflect in you as end user noticing improved model quality?

scoot 5mo ago

> suddenly model quality is back up again Is that not down to this? https://www.anthropic.com/engineering/april-23-postmortem https://www.anthropic.com/engineering/april-23-postmortem

ux266478 5mo ago

They should probably look at moving away from general purpose hardware for their actual products, and reserve GP hardware for RnD. You don't need frontier nodes to run circles around GPGPUs, an ASIC made with 28nm is more than enough to embarrass an H100 (and much cheaper) AI is in such desperate need to adopt software-hardware co-development practices, it's infuriating watching the industry drag its feet about it. We are wasting so much electricity and absolutely wrecking the "free" market just because these companies are incentivized to work at an unsustainable breakneck speed in getting shit to market.

dakolli 5mo ago

another llm user exhibiting the behavior of a gambling addict "That table is cold this week" "that machine is't hot, you wont win on it" Every month llm users are coming up with reasons why they think the model is under preforming from some occulted reasoning only they perceive. Maybe you're just frying your brain by using llms the way you do.

sovenyr 5mo ago

[dead]