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That not how politics works. It is much slower and hidden process. EU fast tracked Mercosur and other trade deals. China and Japan is slowly dumping US treasury

by Chyzwar 26d ago

That not how politics works. It is much slower and hidden process. EU fast tracked Mercosur and other trade deals. China and Japan is slowly dumping US treasury bills, Canada is in open trade confrontation and is diversifying toward China. Everybody is shifting away from US weapons suppliers. Nobody is willing to help with Iran even on symbolic level.

LeFantome 26d ago
You are both right. The world capitulates more than it should. But the world is also moving away and building contingencies. The world needs leadership. And Canada is helping with that. I do not think that reciprocal tariffs are actually the answer though. They hurt both sides and the US is not a rational enough actor to respond like you hope they will. The answer is in shifting trade away from the US and isolating their economy. It takes longer but it is what will work. And even if their behaviour does not change, their power will fade with their economy.
- bryanlarsen 26d ago
  But what tool do you use to shift trade away from the US to other countries? Tariffs are perhaps the most efficient mechanism.
  - 8note 26d ago
    regulatory alignment is an obvious one there's plenty of barriers without tariffs holding up trade between blocks and countries.
  - chermi 26d ago
    Create and serve better products more efficiently while the US insists preserving unproductive jobs and banning progress is more important than growth and affordability. Learn from what they did well and what they did poorly, copy the good parts.
- swat535 26d ago
  As a Canadian, my hope is that we can build stronger relations with Europe. I don't think anyone can avoid China but I would rather minimize those ties. We can't afford to cut all ties with United States due to our geography and history, however it would be prudent for us to reduce our dependency. I don't think majority of Canadians wish to see the nation in such a vulnerable position again with regards to US. Banking on a single player in terms of security and trade has proven to be a risky endeavor. I have much love for the American people, but I support the actions of our government.
  - senderista 26d ago
    I am an American and I support the actions of your government as well. Capitulation never works against a bully--they will always come back for more.
    - georgemcbay 26d ago
      Also American and I love to see other countries stand up to Trump and give us the collective middle finger in a meaningful way. Sorry we failed you all, world. I hope we are able to elect competent leaders in the future that can mend relationships to some degree, but you all can clearly never again allow us the same amount of global leverage that we had through most of the post-war period.
  - YZF 26d ago
    As a fellow Canadian. Our neighbor is the world's biggest economy. Despite their current "challenges" they are still very close to us in values and culture. Our paths are interlocked. We are not going to decouple from the USA and it's not in our interest to do so. When a Canadian new grad is faced with an option of going to work in SV or in China which do they prefer? Between Chinese values and American values which do we prefer? A society with no freedom of speech? Where people are arbitrarily jailed if they voice an opinion against the government? Where the government places citizens in concentration and re-education camps and runs them over with tanks? I mean to me the choice is clear. How many large American companies have offices in Canada? How many people and what slice of the economy does this support? Lots. So yes, the US has drifted and is drifting from the ideal. And maybe it was never the ideal. But it's much closer to us than China in every imaginable facet and will likely remain so for the next many decades. We need to filter the noise out, definitely stand firmly for what we believe in, but also compromise and look at the longer term.
- tensor 26d ago
  > I do not think that reciprocal tariffs are actually the answer though. They hurt both sides and the US is not a rational enough actor to respond like you hope they will. The answer is in shifting trade away from the US and isolating their economy. It takes longer but it is what will work. And even if their behaviour does not change, their power will fade with their economy. I don't really agree. For one, they did help China, the US eventually caved because US businesses and consumers got really upset. The same can be true here. The admin doesn't care, but the business owners do. They're already being squeezed by tariffs on their parts, further damaging their exports will cause them to complain to the admin. That's something Trump has historically caved on to some extent. Also keep in mind that the way Canada will do tariffs is the way they should be used, not blanket but strategically to have as little impact on Canadians and as much impact on US businesses as possible.
- wmoxam 26d ago
  > I do not think that reciprocal tariffs are actually the answer though. They hurt both sides and the US is not a rational enough actor to respond like you hope they will. Reciprocal tariffs will be crafted to specifically to avoid damaging the Canadian economy. Input to Canadian manufacturing for example won't be touched, but other sectors where the product is more of a luxury or there's an easy replacement available will be targeted. Perhaps the digital services tax or similar will make a return.
- neilpmas 26d ago
  It's just for a headline. There is a folder with what they will actually tariff hidden in their treasury somewhere. Expect it to smash red states and things they want to protect - Expect Harley Davidson to take a kicking again. They can't reveal the contents of the folder until they are willing to announce the tariffs - it doesn't work.
- thfuran 26d ago
  >The answer is in shifting trade away from the US and isolating their economy. Don’t tariffs on imports from US help speed that along?
- bikezen 26d ago
  > I do not think that reciprocal tariffs are actually the answer though. They hurt both sides and the US is not a rational enough actor to respond like you hope they will. Disagree, the timing is right before important upcoming midterms, and Canada can chose to target potential swing states with the direct results of what happens when you vote republican.
  - spiderfarmer 26d ago
    I’m convinced republicans don’t have the mental capacity to reason.
    - bikezen 26d ago
      Dont entirely disagree, but in the special elections in the last month several districts that were trump ~20pts flipped, so there's a chance people did flip.
    - losteric 26d ago
      Their primary information channels have been captured and corrupted. They are isolated and misled. This is the penultimate form of domestic fascist propaganda. Your reductive statement just fodders further divisiveness and apathy. We've dealt with propaganda and political change in the past. What worked has always been outreach and engagement, slow deprogramming, in person.
      - bikezen 26d ago
        It was hard enough to deprogram people hooked into Fox news. Now try it with people who have an even worse form on their phones via twitter and/or facebook.
      - spiderfarmer 25d ago
        I'm not from the US, but it seems to me the political divide and compromised information channels are just part of the problem. I would like to remind that you also have: - A corrupt, multi-tier judicial system - A staggering amount of money in politics - A woefully misguided superiority complex - Acceptance that the people have no power anymore - A complete lack of willpower to go out and protest - An underfunded and underperforming education system You guys need a guy like Zohran Mamdami as president.
- bluegatty 26d ago
  Reciprocal tariffs are a negotiating move. They are not a rational equilibrium tactic. The op missed: "There are no deals" here, there are 'some adjustments on some things, partially implemented'.
- muddi900 25d ago
  I think people disregard how economically massive the US is. China will have to grow it's overall GDP 3 times to get on the same level as US GDP per capita. US is the world's consumer. If you make something anywhere in the world, US is the "final boss". Because Americans consume so much. It is not just easy to just do reciprocal tariffs. America does not export all that much stuff. There is a nuclear option of taxing services, where the US does have a surplus. But that would plunge the global economy into further chaos. Such that the Iran war effects will look quaint. They can also do something wild like not honoring US IP protections, but that idea is way out there.
benjiro29 26d ago
*Nobody is willing to help with Iran even on symbolic level* Most people do not realize how much of a shift that is. In the past there was always a ton of EU countries helping the US out, in whatever crap the US started. And a lot of European soldiers died. Those soldiers did not help Europe but the US, because of being allies. Even when some European countries got called names for not helping in Iraq because they called out that the whole Weapons Of Mass destruction was a load of bull** . It did not stop others from helping the US. Yet, now, what we see as "help" is so minimal, and even countries like Spain not just refusing but active blocking. It shows how much relationships have deteriorated. Trump thinks of Europa like a vassal state, and every time we say no or delay, it drives him nuts. Or our best "yes", if often a "well, we need to have agreement in all the countries, see you in a few years". Do not think its coincidence, its done deliberately. In the past when the US said something, beyond maybe France, most countries quickly followed. This is gone ... We know the world has changed, and the old order is finished.
- cudgy 26d ago
  [flagged]
  - smallmancontrov 26d ago
    Trump also didn't go around trying to drum up support for Iran. His attitude going into the war was "I won't let anyone butt in to steal credit for my impending glorious victory." It only turned into "how dare our allies abandon us!" once it turned into a quagmire/loss, at which point it would have been a tough sell under better circumstances. I still agree that everyone is pulling away and for good reasons, prominent among which is being pushed/shoved, but I also can't stand to see Trump's victim narrative gain traction when he chose to go it alone for the dumbest possible reason.
  - metabagel 26d ago
    No, they wouldn't. Trump has treated Europe shamefully and built a tremendous amount of ill will.
  - 8note 26d ago
Animats 26d ago
That's happening. The rest of the world is moving away from the US as a trading partner. Trump is just too flaky to deal with. Canada now exports oil to China instead of the US, for example. The EU is moving towards self-sufficiency in financial services. What the Trump Administration does not get is that the US is no longer central to the world economy. Everyone else has a lot more productive capacity now. Trump is running on a 1980s world view.
- lowbloodsugar 26d ago
  The US is desperately selling currency so it can buy the Yen so that Japan doesn’t ditch its US treasuries.
  - juiceland 26d ago
    Investing in your customer so they buy your product seems to be the signature move as of late.
  - frm88 26d ago
    And even that was a betrayal of European allies since the US sold Euros without notifyong the ECB. Lagarde will see to it that such a thing never happens again. The trust, though, is gone. https://www.ft.com/content/d9922d0b-51a0-48be-811b-42e08f90985a?syn-25a6b1a6=1 https://www.ft.com/content/d9922d0b-51a0-48be-811b-42e08f909...
- ColdStream 26d ago
  Exactly, the move away from the US is both fast and slow. Fast on the things that could be swapped for an alternative straight away/short term. Slow in that there are something that will take decades to move away from and are actively being worked on but quietly. This is the problem of the 2nd Trump admin, the first time was considered a fluke incident and didn't pan out so bad as there was a lot of longer term folks keeping things sort of in check. The 2nd time, it was apparent that there is a significant enough faction of the US population that will ensure this kind of power structure keeps coming back. Trump is but the first of many to operate like he does. There will be more like him. I must warn some people, who knows which side of politics that will come from. Don't think 'your side' is above it, this kind of rhetoric and rot and creep in a lot quicker than one would think.
sandworm101 26d ago
>> That not how politics works. It is much slower and hidden process. And canada's prime minister is former head of the Bank of England. If there is a deep state, a system of backroom negotiations based on personal connections, Carney is part of that network. Carney is a respected friend of the people who control international monetary policy. Trump is a transactional acquaintance of royals, all whom look down on him as an uncouth commoner. Canada is not the underdog in this fight.
jmspring 26d ago
And the current administration brought this on.
crossroadsguy 25d ago
UK - India (almost; sort of) free trade deal. For a country like India even talking on this topic is like not a different railway track, but going on sea route from a train route - it's that day and night. But I do agree with the OP that the protest/retaliation is scattered and slow and poor.
inigyou 25d ago
Didn't Japan rapidly dump US treasury bills because of the oil crisis (which the US caused), forcing the Fed to do its first currency exchange intervention in decades to avoid a complete meltdown of US currency, which still might not have been avoided?

by Chyzwar 26d ago

LeFantome 26d ago

You are both right. The world capitulates more than it should. But the world is also moving away and building contingencies. The world needs leadership. And Canada is helping with that. I do not think that reciprocal tariffs are actually the answer though. They hurt both sides and the US is not a rational enough actor to respond like you hope they will. The answer is in shifting trade away from the US and isolating their economy. It takes longer but it is what will work. And even if their behaviour does not change, their power will fade with their economy.

bryanlarsen 26d ago
But what tool do you use to shift trade away from the US to other countries? Tariffs are perhaps the most efficient mechanism.
- 8note 26d ago
  regulatory alignment is an obvious one there's plenty of barriers without tariffs holding up trade between blocks and countries.
- chermi 26d ago
  Create and serve better products more efficiently while the US insists preserving unproductive jobs and banning progress is more important than growth and affordability. Learn from what they did well and what they did poorly, copy the good parts.
swat535 26d ago
As a Canadian, my hope is that we can build stronger relations with Europe. I don't think anyone can avoid China but I would rather minimize those ties. We can't afford to cut all ties with United States due to our geography and history, however it would be prudent for us to reduce our dependency. I don't think majority of Canadians wish to see the nation in such a vulnerable position again with regards to US. Banking on a single player in terms of security and trade has proven to be a risky endeavor. I have much love for the American people, but I support the actions of our government.
- senderista 26d ago
  I am an American and I support the actions of your government as well. Capitulation never works against a bully--they will always come back for more.
  - georgemcbay 26d ago
    Also American and I love to see other countries stand up to Trump and give us the collective middle finger in a meaningful way. Sorry we failed you all, world. I hope we are able to elect competent leaders in the future that can mend relationships to some degree, but you all can clearly never again allow us the same amount of global leverage that we had through most of the post-war period.
- YZF 26d ago
  As a fellow Canadian. Our neighbor is the world's biggest economy. Despite their current "challenges" they are still very close to us in values and culture. Our paths are interlocked. We are not going to decouple from the USA and it's not in our interest to do so. When a Canadian new grad is faced with an option of going to work in SV or in China which do they prefer? Between Chinese values and American values which do we prefer? A society with no freedom of speech? Where people are arbitrarily jailed if they voice an opinion against the government? Where the government places citizens in concentration and re-education camps and runs them over with tanks? I mean to me the choice is clear. How many large American companies have offices in Canada? How many people and what slice of the economy does this support? Lots. So yes, the US has drifted and is drifting from the ideal. And maybe it was never the ideal. But it's much closer to us than China in every imaginable facet and will likely remain so for the next many decades. We need to filter the noise out, definitely stand firmly for what we believe in, but also compromise and look at the longer term.
tensor 26d ago
> I do not think that reciprocal tariffs are actually the answer though. They hurt both sides and the US is not a rational enough actor to respond like you hope they will. The answer is in shifting trade away from the US and isolating their economy. It takes longer but it is what will work. And even if their behaviour does not change, their power will fade with their economy. I don't really agree. For one, they did help China, the US eventually caved because US businesses and consumers got really upset. The same can be true here. The admin doesn't care, but the business owners do. They're already being squeezed by tariffs on their parts, further damaging their exports will cause them to complain to the admin. That's something Trump has historically caved on to some extent. Also keep in mind that the way Canada will do tariffs is the way they should be used, not blanket but strategically to have as little impact on Canadians and as much impact on US businesses as possible.
wmoxam 26d ago
> I do not think that reciprocal tariffs are actually the answer though. They hurt both sides and the US is not a rational enough actor to respond like you hope they will. Reciprocal tariffs will be crafted to specifically to avoid damaging the Canadian economy. Input to Canadian manufacturing for example won't be touched, but other sectors where the product is more of a luxury or there's an easy replacement available will be targeted. Perhaps the digital services tax or similar will make a return.
neilpmas 26d ago
It's just for a headline. There is a folder with what they will actually tariff hidden in their treasury somewhere. Expect it to smash red states and things they want to protect - Expect Harley Davidson to take a kicking again. They can't reveal the contents of the folder until they are willing to announce the tariffs - it doesn't work.
thfuran 26d ago
>The answer is in shifting trade away from the US and isolating their economy. Don’t tariffs on imports from US help speed that along?
bikezen 26d ago
> I do not think that reciprocal tariffs are actually the answer though. They hurt both sides and the US is not a rational enough actor to respond like you hope they will. Disagree, the timing is right before important upcoming midterms, and Canada can chose to target potential swing states with the direct results of what happens when you vote republican.
- spiderfarmer 26d ago
  I’m convinced republicans don’t have the mental capacity to reason.
  - bikezen 26d ago
    Dont entirely disagree, but in the special elections in the last month several districts that were trump ~20pts flipped, so there's a chance people did flip.
  - losteric 26d ago
    Their primary information channels have been captured and corrupted. They are isolated and misled. This is the penultimate form of domestic fascist propaganda. Your reductive statement just fodders further divisiveness and apathy. We've dealt with propaganda and political change in the past. What worked has always been outreach and engagement, slow deprogramming, in person.
    - bikezen 26d ago
      It was hard enough to deprogram people hooked into Fox news. Now try it with people who have an even worse form on their phones via twitter and/or facebook.
    - spiderfarmer 25d ago
      I'm not from the US, but it seems to me the political divide and compromised information channels are just part of the problem. I would like to remind that you also have: - A corrupt, multi-tier judicial system - A staggering amount of money in politics - A woefully misguided superiority complex - Acceptance that the people have no power anymore - A complete lack of willpower to go out and protest - An underfunded and underperforming education system You guys need a guy like Zohran Mamdami as president.
bluegatty 26d ago
Reciprocal tariffs are a negotiating move. They are not a rational equilibrium tactic. The op missed: "There are no deals" here, there are 'some adjustments on some things, partially implemented'.
muddi900 25d ago
I think people disregard how economically massive the US is. China will have to grow it's overall GDP 3 times to get on the same level as US GDP per capita. US is the world's consumer. If you make something anywhere in the world, US is the "final boss". Because Americans consume so much. It is not just easy to just do reciprocal tariffs. America does not export all that much stuff. There is a nuclear option of taxing services, where the US does have a surplus. But that would plunge the global economy into further chaos. Such that the Iran war effects will look quaint. They can also do something wild like not honoring US IP protections, but that idea is way out there.

benjiro29 26d ago

*Nobody is willing to help with Iran even on symbolic level* Most people do not realize how much of a shift that is. In the past there was always a ton of EU countries helping the US out, in whatever crap the US started. And a lot of European soldiers died. Those soldiers did not help Europe but the US, because of being allies. Even when some European countries got called names for not helping in Iraq because they called out that the whole Weapons Of Mass destruction was a load of bull** . It did not stop others from helping the US. Yet, now, what we see as "help" is so minimal, and even countries like Spain not just refusing but active blocking. It shows how much relationships have deteriorated. Trump thinks of Europa like a vassal state, and every time we say no or delay, it drives him nuts. Or our best "yes", if often a "well, we need to have agreement in all the countries, see you in a few years". Do not think its coincidence, its done deliberately. In the past when the US said something, beyond maybe France, most countries quickly followed. This is gone ... We know the world has changed, and the old order is finished.

cudgy 26d ago
[flagged]
- smallmancontrov 26d ago
  Trump also didn't go around trying to drum up support for Iran. His attitude going into the war was "I won't let anyone butt in to steal credit for my impending glorious victory." It only turned into "how dare our allies abandon us!" once it turned into a quagmire/loss, at which point it would have been a tough sell under better circumstances. I still agree that everyone is pulling away and for good reasons, prominent among which is being pushed/shoved, but I also can't stand to see Trump's victim narrative gain traction when he chose to go it alone for the dumbest possible reason.
- metabagel 26d ago
  No, they wouldn't. Trump has treated Europe shamefully and built a tremendous amount of ill will.
- 8note 26d ago

Animats 26d ago

That's happening. The rest of the world is moving away from the US as a trading partner. Trump is just too flaky to deal with. Canada now exports oil to China instead of the US, for example. The EU is moving towards self-sufficiency in financial services. What the Trump Administration does not get is that the US is no longer central to the world economy. Everyone else has a lot more productive capacity now. Trump is running on a 1980s world view.

lowbloodsugar 26d ago
The US is desperately selling currency so it can buy the Yen so that Japan doesn’t ditch its US treasuries.
- juiceland 26d ago
  Investing in your customer so they buy your product seems to be the signature move as of late.
- frm88 26d ago
  And even that was a betrayal of European allies since the US sold Euros without notifyong the ECB. Lagarde will see to it that such a thing never happens again. The trust, though, is gone. https://www.ft.com/content/d9922d0b-51a0-48be-811b-42e08f90985a?syn-25a6b1a6=1 https://www.ft.com/content/d9922d0b-51a0-48be-811b-42e08f909...
ColdStream 26d ago
Exactly, the move away from the US is both fast and slow. Fast on the things that could be swapped for an alternative straight away/short term. Slow in that there are something that will take decades to move away from and are actively being worked on but quietly. This is the problem of the 2nd Trump admin, the first time was considered a fluke incident and didn't pan out so bad as there was a lot of longer term folks keeping things sort of in check. The 2nd time, it was apparent that there is a significant enough faction of the US population that will ensure this kind of power structure keeps coming back. Trump is but the first of many to operate like he does. There will be more like him. I must warn some people, who knows which side of politics that will come from. Don't think 'your side' is above it, this kind of rhetoric and rot and creep in a lot quicker than one would think.

sandworm101 26d ago

>> That not how politics works. It is much slower and hidden process. And canada's prime minister is former head of the Bank of England. If there is a deep state, a system of backroom negotiations based on personal connections, Carney is part of that network. Carney is a respected friend of the people who control international monetary policy. Trump is a transactional acquaintance of royals, all whom look down on him as an uncouth commoner. Canada is not the underdog in this fight.

jmspring 26d ago

And the current administration brought this on.

crossroadsguy 25d ago

UK - India (almost; sort of) free trade deal. For a country like India even talking on this topic is like not a different railway track, but going on sea route from a train route - it's that day and night. But I do agree with the OP that the protest/retaliation is scattered and slow and poor.

inigyou 25d ago

Didn't Japan rapidly dump US treasury bills because of the oil crisis (which the US caused), forcing the Fed to do its first currency exchange intervention in decades to avoid a complete meltdown of US currency, which still might not have been avoided?