ben_w

8 ms·

1.
by ben_w 3d ago
The people who think as you think indeed have left or never joined. The people still there necessarily think they can make a difference. I never applied to any of them because I didn't think I could make a difference. I currently have
2.
by ben_w 3d ago
> not the AI going "out of control" or whatever and killing the human race All of the "going out of control" examples can be described as examples of "human asked computer to do thing". The only question is
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by ben_w 3d ago
> Do you think we should treat them as liars or threats? I answered that with the analogy you called "spin" and "avoiding the question", and completely misunderstood because "vague insinuation of climate change d
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by ben_w 3d ago
Dunno about "should"; personally I am more scared of the US than China here, but I do know how propaganda can be, makes "should" really difficult. > Will OpenAI and Anthropic open themselves for inspection so we can v
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by ben_w 3d ago
You're not even close to passing the ideological Turing test here.
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by ben_w 3d ago
Rather the opposite.
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by ben_w 3d ago
> Serious response: we have no idea what ASI means or might be like. It's literally sci fi (at the moment). Yes. Unfortunately, this is part of the problem.
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by ben_w 3d ago
Today? As in, you don't foresee any new models or categories? Fine. Providing sychophantic assistance to multiple mutually-incompatible genocidal racial supremicists.
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by ben_w 3d ago
I say same about p(doom): Only makes sense in a time interval, otherwise you have to ask how people categorise a hypothetical AI which fails to overcome the heat death of the universe. (When I say mine is 0.1, this is "in my lifetime a
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by ben_w 3d ago
One of Europe's current (multi-)national security concerns is how much of its various economies are dependent on US software, cloud, and that a Trump executive order sanctioning any subset of those countries may terminate those economi
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by ben_w 3d ago
Different people can be scared by dofferent things, or multiple things. I wouldn't invest (more) in any of the big names today. Even without either p(doom) or bubble concerns, nobody knows how to operationalise "safety" in AI
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by ben_w 3d ago
There's a lot of ways it might go. Won't be too surprised if the next Democrat leadership throws the book at Musk; and give how unpopular Data Centres are generally (and how uninterested Republicans seem to be in EVs), only mildly
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by ben_w 3d ago
The evidence is the acts the AI has already done.
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by ben_w 3d ago
They're trying to make it not be a threat, and are all scared and afraid that their best efforts to make it harmless are not enough. Some are worried by the AI directly bringing doom; others are worried that one of the companies who co
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by ben_w 3d ago
Sure. I don't personally trust any of the CEOs, and I have yet to hear a single person (in general, not just on this topic) who trusts Altman.
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by ben_w 3d ago
You're simultaneously overestimating what was observable in the 70s climate research, and ignoring all the actual research and evaluation test results for AI today. I don't expect people to be familiar with more than "trust m
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by ben_w 3d ago
Eh. If I was rank ordering, I's put: worst [AM, {very large gap …}, al Qaeda, …, USG today, …, China, …, USG under Obama, {very large gap …}, The Culture] best.
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by ben_w 3d ago
Not only but also.
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by ben_w 3d ago
There's plenty of things to worry about, and plenty of people to do the worrying.
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by ben_w 3d ago
Over the Atlantic? Nah, the problem was it was very expensive and not a great experience for the people rich enough to afford it. The US company trying to bring supersonic back are not only focussed on the flight speed, but also the entire
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by ben_w 3d ago
There's plenty of people who think greenhouse gas/global warming campaigns against fossil fuels are "exaggerating", that "earth was warm/the climate changed in the past", that a fee degrees isn't bad,
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by ben_w 3d ago
> Or you know, stop working on it if its that dangerous? Selection effect. Everyone who thinks "the biggest difference I can make is staying in/joining/founding new AI research lab" does that. Everyone who thinks &quo
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by ben_w 3d ago
> But the (b|tr)illionare class? I'd assume they have access to enough legal services to make even the government careful of trampling their first amendment rights. Is the national security gag order process so strong that the gover
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by ben_w 3d ago
I know people at METR and Anthropic. When they tell you they're worried the tech they're working on may kill everyone despite their best efforts, perhaps believe them.
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by ben_w 3d ago
The world isn't the American political nonsense. > What will be funny to me is that normal tech people outside the frontier model companies are about to find themselves without a home on this topic. Already happened, just from agent
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by ben_w 3d ago
Unclear how much more efficient they can be. Bleeding edge models are putting the desk-job competencies of multiple professional fields into something with as many parameters as a single large rodent has synapses.
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by ben_w 3d ago
> Supersonic passenger aircraft were operated profitably Were they? IIRC joint project by British and French national airlines, they expected to sell loads, hardly anyone wanted to buy the planes, the two airlines kept them flying out of
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by ben_w 3d ago
Unclear. How much is China learning from open models? Or the other way around, how much is the US losing worldwide mindshare by refusing to allow non-Americans access to bleeding-edge models and letting China fill in the gap? (Playing catch
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by ben_w 4d ago
The current state of alignment is that we don't know how to make it only as bad as Pol Pot was made by his parents, teachers, genetics, circumstances, etc. This remains true regardless of if it is or isn't kept away from the publi
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by ben_w 5d ago
If people already knew about Goodhart's Law, I wouldn't feel it necessay to give illustrated examples.

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