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Dogecoin market manipulation?
- nlp 13y agoSo dishonesty. Wow.
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- TomiHiltunen 13y agoSuch
- NotUncivil 13y agoArchived 4chan thread where the leak happened: http://rbt.asia/g/thread/S39865892 http://rbt.asia/g/thread/S39865892. -- Edit -- More logs got leaked at http://pastebin.com/7itGzitH http://pastebin.com/7itGzitH. I have not read them yet, so cannot tell you if there is anything of value in there.
- dylanhassinger 13y agolooks like standard troll box blather to me
- Alex3917 13y agoMeh. The only reason the price is as low as it is currently is that A) $850,000 needs to be added to the market every single day just to keep the price stable B) Coinbase et al. literally can't convert dollars to BTC fast enough. The situation is similar to how whenever Apple releases a new iPhone, it takes literally months until there is enough supply to match the demand. While this market manipulation is blatantly unethical and possibly illegal, in the long run it's going to be larger economic factors that determine the success or failure of the currency.
- rtpg 13y agocan you explain why almost a million dollars needs to be injected into the market to keep the price stable?
- tlrobinson 13y agoThat's the value of the Dogecoins being mined every day: Blocks per day: 60 * 24 = 1440 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=361813.0 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=361813.0) Current block reward: ~500,000 doge (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=361813.0 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=361813.0) Total block rewards per day: 1440 * 500,000 = 720,000,000 doge Current exchange rate: 1 doge = US$0.0017 (http://dogecoin.com/ http://dogecoin.com/) Total block rewards in USD per day: 720,000,000 * 0.0017 = $1,224,000
- hueving 13y agoThat would make sense if every miner immediately sold every coin he/she mined.
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- tlrobinson 13y agoMiners have to pay for electricity and hardware. I doubt they're doing that with Dogecoins.
- ycui1986 13y agoDoge had been the most profitable altcoin to mine several times in the past couple months.
- sireat 13y agoYou will be hard pressed to find any serious miner who is keeping mined Doge instead of converting them to BTC or fiat. Serious mining farms pay for their electricity, thus they will not have amortized their GPUs solely from Doge. Sure, if you are a gamer with "pre-paid" graphics card AND "free" electricity, you may elect to keep your mined Doge.
- kungfooguru 13y agoIllegal?
- fleitz 13y agoPeople are free to coordinate their trades as private players on the market. While it may be illegal I see nothing unethical about it. The entire point of the fucking market is to amass enough capital that you're not 'picking' stocks, if you're trading without an edge I really don't know what to tell you.
- judk 13y agoWelcome to EVE offline!
- hueving 13y agoThe point of a market is not for you to manipulate it. I don't wait to buy milk until I can amass enough capital to drive the price up.
- Anderkent 13y agoThe entire point of the fucking market is to share information. Pump and dump schemes are not information, they're noise.
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- logicallee 13y ago> While it may be illegal I see nothing unethical about it. This is interesting. It shows an attitude about laws as being just suggestions that you can also compare against your morality. I certainly agree on many points, for example people who do things on a small scale that are technically illegal (e.g. sodomy where it was illegal, etc). The context and morality does matter. But in this particular case, the laws exist for quite an important and good reason. Do you know why? It seems to be for the exact case that's happening here. Ignoring the laws shielding the public, because you don't see anything unethical in it, seems, well, akin to ignoring fraud laws because you don't see anything wrong with committing fraud. For example, why shouldn't I be able to print money (on an inkjet printer) - it might be technically illegal, but is it immoral? It's immoral because you make money from people accepting something that is worthless, and devalues people's faith in the real thing. Pump and dump schemes have a similar effect on real investment markets, and are illegal for this reason.
- patrickg_zill 13y agoSome people do hold the coins, though. I am not sure what the percentage is. In my case I have some Doge and have not sold any at this point.
- runn1ng 13y agoWhat the hell am I reading
- chippy 13y ago...and is it worth investing my time trying to understand this?
- drawkbox 13y agoGame theory in action. There will always be manipulation in every market, even in doge. Early hedge fund managers here.
- thom 13y agoEven ignoring the macro effects, just reading the log and watching people bail out early, it occurred to me that this would be a great case study for students of game theory.
- FireBeyond 13y ago“I feel so awful for those who lost here.” Nothing sweeter than the tears of someone who lost money truing to manipulate other people into losing money ...
- TomiHiltunen 13y agoTrue that!
- fleitz 13y agoThe market is about buying low and selling high, or selling high and buying low. If you trade with out an edge you're a moron. I really hope no one trades actual markets believing they can 'pick' equities.
- Mikeb85 13y ago> I really hope no one trades actual markets believing they can 'pick' equities. I do and make a lot of money doing it. It's not about picking equities per se, it's about finding good trading opportunities - every equity provides good and bad trades, depending on a multitude of factors. You can play any stock both long and short....
- scotty79 13y agoWhat you do, is living in tornado zone and counting each day without tornado as a win attributed to our skill on picking and swapping houses in the zone.
- Mikeb85 13y agoA think a more apt analogy would be comparing it to something like poker. Yes it's risky, but if you know how to navigate markets, it's a controlled risk, in which you can come out ahead more often than not...
- scotty79 13y agoAll risk is controlled until it's not. In my country to ride the bus you buy tickets in the shop. Once you get into the bus you invalidate the ticket by printing date and hour on the ticket with the device installed there. Once in a while (once in few weeks or months depending on your luck and how much you ride) the guy shows up on your ride who checks if everyone has properly invalidated tickets. If you don't have one, you'll get a fine. If you wish you may never buy the tickets and just pay fines when they happen. Every time you ride without the ticket you earn but you take the risk of the fine. You might argue that it's contolled risk since you estimated how often fine happens on average. But everything is awesome until one time you encounter streak of fines that eat up all your previous earnings and some future ones too. It's the same game that those banks that invested in derivatives were playing.
- vijayboyapati 13y agoThis illustrates a simple idea in economics: cartels are hard to maintain because participants will look out for their own self-interest.
- davidvaughan 13y agoIndeed, and by coincidence Izabella Kaminska published an interesting piece on why that's true with reference to cryptocurencies yesterday: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/01/24/1750472/why-its-tough-being-in-an-altcoin-cartel/ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/01/24/1750472/why-its-tough-...
- HarryHirsch 13y agoI don't know the literature, and what assumptions they make in there, but out in the real world the lightbulb cartel lasted from 1924 till 1942 or thereabouts. The keyword to look for is "Phoebus Cartel". Also, recently in the news: the Silicon Valley wage-fixing cartel. They may be hard to maintain, but they do spring up and may exert power while alive.
- ama729 13y agoPhoebus was indeed established in 1924 but: 1) There is a scientific basis for the 10.000 hours, the "greatest" achievement generally attributed to Phoebus[1]: > For a supply voltage V near the rated voltage of the lamp: Light output is approximately proportional to V 3.4 Power consumption is approximately proportional to V 1.6 Lifetime is approximately proportional to V −16 Color temperature is approximately proportional to V 0.42[88] 2) According wikipedia (and this page: http://www.uwcc.wisc.edu/icic/def-hist/history/famous.html http://www.uwcc.wisc.edu/icic/def-hist/history/famous.html )[2]: > In the late 1920s a Swedish-Danish-Norwegian union of companies (the North European Luma Co-op Society) began planning an independent manufacturing centre. Economic and legal threats by Phoebus did not achieve the desired effect, and in 1931 the Scandinavians produced and sold lamps at a considerably lower price than Phoebus. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightbulb#Light_output_and_lifetime http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightbulb#Light_output_and_life... [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoebus_cartel#Demise http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoebus_cartel#Demise
- socillion 13y agoI'm not sure why it's on HN, but it's real. It was originally happening in the public channel #dogecoin-market on Freenode but was then moved to the private channel #marketmakers, which seems to have spurred people to start sharing it everywhere since now it's private. Wolong is the guy who brought the Dogecoin price to where it is now by investing a ton of money into it, and due to that and some charisma he's attracted a cult following. He's now using that cult following to have them do pump/dump ops for him (with their money). Here's his manifesto: http://pastebin.com/RdRAULtT http://pastebin.com/RdRAULtT It's entertaining, I'm waiting for someone to do a solid article on the story. Bear in mind that cryptocurrencies are currently an unregulated wild west, where activities like these are both common and legal. Do not invest anything you are not prepared to lose. edit: just for further corroboration, here's logs from a few days ago: http://pastebin.com/1NTTBCXM http://pastebin.com/1NTTBCXM You can check the charts at http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/cryptsy/dogebtc http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/cryptsy/dogebtc and see how that was responsible for a drop to 212. From memory they were using about 36million dogecoins, which comes out to approximately 78btc or $65,000. My pet theory is that wolong is just building trust at this point so he can eventually have his army of followers buy all his dogecoins at inflated prices, but who knows. No matter what happens, it's very entertaining to watch develop.
- aw3c2 13y ago> Do not invest anything you are not prepared to lose. Let me fix that for you: > Do not gamble anything you are not prepared to lose.
- gnur 13y agoInvesting always is a gamble.
- XorNot 13y agoGambling is when the game is purely driven by luck. Investing is when the instrument has measurable properties and explanations for why it will become more valuable - i.e. you invest in making your factory larger, so it can produce product more cheaply. Betting on completely unregulated currency markets (which have good reasons that they shouldn't have any value at all) is gambling, because you're entirely depending on irrationality. That said...quite a few businesses with that model.
- sarreph 13y agoI love the irony of the term selfish that keeps getting thrown around by these hypocrites.
- Oculus 13y agoIs the main idea behind this scheme to get other participants to lower the price and since the orchestrators got their positions earlier they profit or do they simply need the volume of the masses to make their scheme profitable? If it's the latter, couldn't they just get a large enough loan and move the markets with their own funds seeing as Dogecoin is still a relatively small market?
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- sputnikus 13y agoIt's fun to hear many people saying: "Jamaican bobsleigh donations raised Dogecoin prices", while it's just series of small speculative attacks on cryptocurrency happening.
- jonknee 13y agoIt would be shocking if there was not manipulation in a completely unregulated market. We can't stop manipulation in regulated markets, without any rules it's the wild west.
- javert 13y agoI think this is precisely the right conclusion to draw, plus the fact that the manipulation is harmless unless you intentionally expose yourself to the risk.
- carrja99 13y agoI feel sorry for the people participating in this market manipulation. I made a good chunk of BTC thanks to wolong's forewarning of his upcoming pump he made days ago but left it at that. The character started insisting 10k doge tips for him to answer questions on irc, then moved to a private channel where to get an invite you basically have to prove you at least have 10 BTC and are willing to let him ultimately execute trades on your behalf. There are lots of fools in that channel who will soon find themselves parted with their money.
- easy_rider 13y agoThis seems to be the channel in question [1]. [1] http://irc.netsplit.de/channels/details.php?net=freenode&room=%23dogecoin-market http://irc.netsplit.de/channels/details.php?net=freenode&roo...
- tomasquintero 13y agoit's not #dogecoin-market, that's the public channel that they push positive messages to. They run their schemes in #marketmakers, an invite-only channel on freenode.
- Zikes 13y agoI've always thought of dogecoin as the "CJ" of cryptocurrencies, and I'm still not entirely sure I'm mistaken about that. In that context, this is a much tamer "conspiracy" than I expected.
- SwellJoe 13y agoThe amusing/sad thing is that so many folks don't realize that only a few of the "market movers" actually profit. Those who don't have the inside inside track, will lose when those who make the call to buy and sell. The whole "we move the market" thing is accurate...but, the suckers who think they're part of moving the market are just the people giving money to "-wolong-". I have a hard time feeling sorry for people losing money in such a scheme, because they intended to take money from others...but, still, the biggest asshole in this scenario is the leader of the pump.
- GrinningFool 13y agoIn this case... he's also looking to build a system that will let him control multiple wallets. The best part is that people are going to essentially hand wallets over to him to manage this, in both BTC and DOGE. He's not going to come out behind, no matter how it goes .
- mjburgess 13y agoI guess it's like a pyramid scheme where everyone knows its a pyramid scheme and believes theyre close enough to the top that they'll still profit.
- clarkm 13y agoThe real winners in these schemes are the exchanges. Since they profit from every trade that's made, anything that increases volume and volatility is good for their books.
- keeran 13y agoMarket manipulation happens everywhere, why is this special?
- KVFinn 13y agoAnyone have a link to a tl;dr on how market manipulation like this works? It seems like crypto-currencies are ripe for for this of thing and it doesn't take much money to do it. Presumably the hidden information you have from being part of a cabal means it's different than just changing your risk distribution like a Martingale betting strategy does.
- socillion 13y agoThe way it works is to use a giant bid or ask wall to push the price around. Say the asset has bids at 220 and asks at 222, and you want to push the price downwards. You put up an ask of an amount equivalent to maybe 6hours volume at 224 (an "ask wall"). Anyone selling will put their orders below that wall, and as you slowly move the wall downwards people will sell into the market in the expectation that they can buy again once you've pushed the price lower than where they sold. This relies on the large wall not being an attractive offer for someone who has the purchasing power to obliterate it, which is where it occasionally fails. Generally, if the market starts to move against it with any force, it's pulled or moved further back behind other orders. Another way this can be used is by putting up a wall on the opposite side of your real order to drive demand - i.e. in the scenario above, you might be trying to buy at 220. If you put up a huge wall at 224, people will be more willing to fill your order at 220 than if the orderbook was much thinner. It seems this is called spoofing in the financial world.
- HNaTTY 13y agoThat was a good explanation, except for the fact that I think you're referring to eg 220, 222, and 224 as the Satoshi/DOGE exchange rate, and by pushing the price downwards, you'll actually get more Satoshi for each DOGE. Pushing the price "down" to 224 from 220 is very confusing and caused me to have to read your post several times to make sure I understood correctly.
- socillion 13y agoI mean that putting a large sell order at 224 would make the buys (at the moment, at 220) move lower as the orders are filled by other people selling to them. You could then move the wall downwards, say to 221, when the sells in the orderbook had also moved downwards from 222. At this point the market's state would be something like buys at 218, sells at 220, and your wall at 221, effectively having pushed the market downwards from where you started. I hope this made what I meant a bit clearer.
- driverdan 13y agoThere are a number of pump and dumpers manipulating the altcoin market. I'm surprised there aren't more people doing it.
- tomphoolery 13y agoWho the fuck cares? It's fucking dogecoin. It's the "slot machine" of cryptocurrencies.
- bakhy 13y agoanother free market triumph ;)
- Nekomata3 13y agoINDEED
- Geee 13y agoIt's interesting that this could all be 'fake'. You don't actually need 'followers' to do this. If you lead the public to think that there's a massive pump/dump going on, you can make the public follow your orders. Obviously you need to discuss on public forums, or 'leak by accident'.
- pmorici 13y agoTo bad there isn't this kind of transparency in the real supposedly regulated markets. There is manipulation there all the time only we never hear about it because it isn't being done by some guy in a public IRC channel.
- gigq 13y agoI'm not sure if people think crypto currency market manipulation is new but this was going on far before Dogecoin came out. http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/12/05/in-the-murky-world-of-bitcoin-fraud-is-quicker-than-the-law/ http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/12/05/in-the-murky-world-of... https://twitter.com/Fontase https://twitter.com/Fontase
- kolev 13y agoGee, I totally get somebody putting money into Bitcoin or mining Litecoin, but the rest are honest scamcoins (or at least - circuscoins). If you mine, then it's probably okay, although it still costs you real money (energy, hardware, opportunity cost, etc.), but to put money (fiat or bitcoins) into it - you need to be completely out of your mind!
- Marazan 13y agoWhat makes Bitcoin and Litecoin not scam coins?
- kolev 13y agoNothing of essence, of course. I strongly believe Bitcoin is a bubble that will burst this year although I definitely recognize the innovation and awareness of certain problems that it brought. But at least you see some legitimacy and a level of assurance in VCs putting money into Bitcoin startups where Dogecoin and the likes are just honest scams, not even bubbles. What kind of a person would put money into something called BBQCoin or Junkcoin?
- wmf 13y agoThere's an argument that the world needs one cryptocurrency but not two. Therefore the first one (Bitcoin) is not a scam, but all others are.
- GFischer 13y agoYour second point doesn't necessarily derive from the first. I can understand standardizing on only one cryptocurrency, but why not one that addresses many of Bitcoins' limitations? I'm not saying it should be Dogecoin, actually I hope not, but it could be.
- wmf 13y agoI agree that the one cryptocurrency doesn't have to be Bitcoin. What I left unsaid is that so far none of the altcoins provide enough improvement over Bitcoin that it's worth breaking compatibility.
- bredren 13y agoPumping is going on in every crypto currency right now. If it isn't as straightforward as a chat log, it is being done more subtly in other ways. Alt-currencies, (i.e. not bitcoin) seem to have more pump and dump going on.
- msantos 13y agoI guess this Wolong person is taking the scam serious.. > Wolong To Launch A Forum > The plan is to make the forum private and tight-knit; thereby locking out trolls. According to him, the entrance fee will be between $25-$30 USD http://www.dailydoge.org/2014/01/wolong-to-launch-a-forum/ http://www.dailydoge.org/2014/01/wolong-to-launch-a-forum/
- ck2 13y agoIt will be back at 200 in the morning, they did buyers a favorite to discount it before it halves in 15 days.
- FredericJ 13y agoRelated must-watch: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kuM_NTTxAc http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kuM_NTTxAc
- thechut 13y agoThis is the exact same thing that happened in bitcoin markets early on. When the capitalization of the market is so low and a small number of people control a large amount of the currency/commodity there really isn't much you can do about it.
- Nekomata3 13y agolol
- Nekomata3 13y agocongrats hacker news for again being part of 4chan ruse
- felipelalli 13y ago"Bitcoin é foda, o resto é moda." a rhyme in Portuguese which means "Bitcoin is awesome, the rest is fashion."
- GFischer 13y agoWell, "foda" means something else entirely in Portuguese, tough I can't claim to understand the meaning of the quote :) . http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=foda http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=foda
- icedchai 13y agoAll cryptocurrencies are being manipulated. You would be naive to believe otherwise. (and Dogecoin is for lulz anyway!)
- Nekomata3 13y agowithout wolong doge wouldn't be over 200
- kudu 13y agoI reported this to a freenode staffer. He said they didn't appreciate this kind of activity much and that they would investigate it.
- plantain 13y agoIt seems quite likely the dogecoin reddit moderators are involved with this due to absolute radio silence about market manipulation on the subreddit.
- oelmekki 13y agoTo be fair, people on /r/dogecoin don't care much about day to day value, they're in for the long run and the fun.
- empraptor 13y agoI was curious so searched for manipulation on the dogecoin subreddit. Got the following as first hit. I don't know enough about reddit algo to speculate why it doesn't show up on front page of the subreddit. http://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/comments/1w7otj/dogecoin_market_manipulation_leaked_irc_logs/ http://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/comments/1w7otj/dogecoin_ma...
- retrogradeorbit 13y ago-wolong- is probably on the other side of the trades buying up cheap. Herding a flock of sheep to shear.
- TomiHiltunen 13y agoFunny how these crypto currency people bash on the Wallstreet but then pull of the same stunts with official unmonitored currencies.
- parksy 13y agoWho is to say it isn't Wall Street traders pulling these stunts?
- MildlySerious 13y agoNotice how every single entity is taking part in this.
- elwell 13y agoOr fake anti-dogecoin propaganda. ... I can't believe we're even still talking about dogecoin, this is insane.
- gattler 13y agoClick: http://www.reddit.com/r/shibedojo http://www.reddit.com/r/shibedojo (<- We trade Doge the pro way)
- listofranco 13y agoWow so it's wolf of wall st online err-Wolf of Reddit?