8 ms·

It's nice to hear tradespeople getting paid well with lots of work. I'm happy for them :-)

by kristov 2mo ago

willis936 2mo ago
Yes, that's good. It also prices out a lot of other better uses for their labor. Projects I work on have seen prices soar. I don't consider building the things everyone hates because they promise concentration of wealth and an attack on labor at the expense of building literally anything else to be somehow a big W for labor because a few people get a slightly higher temporary paycheck. Ask the Wagyu cows how they feel about the hand they are dealt.
- bpodgursky 2mo ago
  There's sort of no winning here! AI unemploys middle-class workers: AI is stealing jobs from the middle class! AI employs unionized middle-class workers: AI is stealing cheap labor from the rest of us!
  - paul7986 2mo ago
    And in time AI robots will reduce the need for these blue collar workers who are presently helping replace the white collar workers. Just learned of a new acronym today "NILF," not in the labor force with over one million supposed NILFs out there -- dropped out and gave up.
    - anthk 2mo ago
      Good luck with robots traing to lay up bricks, or doing plumbing in a home.
      - paul7986 2mo ago
        Ummmm in time it's inevitable as in 2026 you do not need any skill to be a computer programmer. AI has replaced that once valuable skill and will continue it's way through ever white collar job til the robots (5 to 10 years) start taking the blue collar jobs away. The blue collar job boom is great present day, but what they are helping build is their machine driven replacement. Maybe this all sounds hyperbolic, but it's what Musk and all the AI overlords have said as far back as a 2013 or prior. Musk and Altman have noted the need for everyone to be on welfare (Universal Basic Income) since then. And no doubt we see this taking shape now within white collar jobs that once we held in high regard like programming being replaced by AI. I just created a whole startup web design, front-end, back-end development, native iPhone app, Android app and more using Codex (previously i hired others to help me a UI Design Front End guy).
        Shitty-kitty 2mo ago
        Vibe coding by people with no programming skills is not going to happen. What will happen is moving to higher and higher code representations. A compiler is already doing 99% of the actual coding when you realize that the only language computers understand is assembly.
        paul7986 2mo ago
        I am a UX Researcher, UX Design and Developer by trade since 2009. I don't know iphone development, python, any back end stuff and or in depth JS stuff. But, Codex does and just by typing I just published a startup in python in two weeks using Codex and it's iPhone app will be available soon. How do you not think AI will not destroy programming jobs if anyone can type to create anything they want or share your screen with Codex and have it guide you via voice? I just feed screenshot after screenshot to Codex to understand what I need to do next. Look forward to being able to share my screen and have it guide me via a voice conversation.
        Shitty-kitty 2mo ago
        What is you opinion of U.I "designed" by someone without UX experience, thru prompting. Most likely you cringe at how bad they are, as do the reset of us. Similarly, programmers have a name for code generated without a coder guiding and reviewing, A.I slop.
        paul7986 2mo ago
        Users don't care if they hear amazing song and don't know its AI Music slop or their favorite new iPhone game is powered by slop. The entrepreneurs pumping out said slop and making some to a lot of money don't care what old time programmers think of their slop. They are making money! Things change and this change is hard for sure ... i'm living it and embracing the change by becoming a vibe coder and starting up businesses. As for UI Gemini created the same type of UI I would've yet I did tell it what was needed following my years/years of design experience (less is always more).
      - bluGill 2mo ago
        Making a brick laying robot is easy. I'm happy to do that if you want to fund my mid-life crisis... Note that I did not promise my brick laying robot can effectively compete with human break layers on cost. I fully expect my robot to be at least double the cost of humans doing the same work, and it will be less flexible than humans as well (meaning you need a different robot for different buildings)
        rootsudo 2mo ago
        How would it be double the cost if it can work day and night and on holidays and during bad weather and not have strikes?
        bluGill 2mo ago
        Double is probably a low estimate. There is a lot of engineering required in the robot. Much of the effort is setup, someone still needs to bring it to the site, and feed the blueprints in. Cleanup is also a lot of the cost. Not to mention mortar is made of sand which is abrasive and will wear it out fast meaning lots of maintenance work. Working day and night isn't helpful as the limit to speed is waiting for the mortar to cure before doing the next row. (Generally you do about 5 rows and then wait a day)
        rootsudo 2mo ago
        could the robots not do more than one site? 5 rows, move to other side, a house if rectangle does have four sides, and a subdivison has multiple houses?
  - palmotea 2mo ago
    > There's sort of no winning here! > AI unemploys middle-class workers: AI is stealing jobs from the middle class! > AI employs unionized middle-class workers: AI is stealing cheap labor from the rest of us! Come on, you've got to know it's not going to employ those "unionized middle-class workers" for long. Their jobs are sort of like these jobs: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/10/business/ai-white-collar-jobs.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/10/business/ai-white-collar-... ("people participat[ing] in feeding their own careers into the A.I. wood chipper...Many people who contract for these companies understand that this is a short-term opportunity...before they themselves are automated out of the job"). And yeah, there's "sort of no winning" when you're gobbling up resources to build stuff people don't like.
    - triceratops 2mo ago
      But that's true of most carpentry and electrical jobs. In-house carpenters and electricians are a minority.
      - palmotea 2mo ago
        I was responding to the implied symmetry in the GP: the "employs" does not balance out the "unemploys", because the unemployment is likely permanent and the employment temporary. And then there's the fucked up resource allocation: throwing around insane amounts of money, driving up the prices of things the people actually want, to build hated things for investors and billionaires, which is a separate issue.
        triceratops 2mo ago
        The unemployment of electricians and carpenters is permanent? On a long-enough timescale, where we have much more advanced robotics, probably. Not in the near or medium-term. The fucked up resource allocation is itself an indicator of wealth inequality. A generation ago growing companies had to go public to access funding. Now they can find all the capital they need in private markets.
    - SR2Z 2mo ago
  - gib444 2mo ago
    > AI employs unionized middle-class workers: AI is stealing cheap labor from the rest of us! What cheap labour? Tradespeople are not cheap (especially if you factor in the quality of the work). This just makes them even more expensive. Meaning a big impact on homes – you know, the things people and families live in, in order to survive. Pretty important
    - logicchains 2mo ago
      >Meaning a big impact on homes – you know, the things people and families live in, in order to survive. Maybe those people should pay their tradespeople better then. Everybody's all "workers should be paid more" until they're the one paying the worker.
      - gib444 2mo ago
        Everyone should just compete with the trillions of dollars of capital floating around for AI? And it's their fault for suddenly being 'poor'? Sounds like you're assuming people are paying pennies for labour. I don't think that's true at all While we're at it, how much should small bathroom, 2 week renovation cost? $100,000 in labour?
        kasey_junk 2mo ago
        That small bathroom job is literally the worst case scenario for a tradesman. They have to work nearly as hard to line that up as better paying longer term commercial work. The residential buyer is the source of much less repeat work, is harder to deal with, more price conscious and harder to collect from than the commercial buyer they could be working for. Anyone that can competently market, manage, and execute that small job can do the same for better customers.
        SoftTalker 2mo ago
        And even in residential, building million-dollar houses is easier (or at least not harder) and more profitable than building "affordable" starter homes.
  - customguy 2mo ago
    The employment is temporary, what follows a net negative, is the idea. And "AI" as a concept has has no agency. This is all about humans who seek to further concentrate wealth.
    - deleted 2mo ago
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  - vouaobrasil 2mo ago
    That's correct! AI is a negative for society no matter how you look at it. That's the entire idea!
  - anigbrowl 2mo ago
    That's pretty disingenuous. The people losing jobs to AI can't just pivot into the trades. When you think about it, companies announcing they're pivoting into some other area where they have no prior background is usually a bit of a desperation move, aided by the fact that companies don't need to be licensed in any way to offer particular services, other than maybe in the military/national security sector. As for the second point, it's true that this is just old-fashioned supply and demand. I predict the outcome is that there's a rush into the construction/contracting sector followed by a bust due to either the tech bubble popping and construction slowing way down, or the replacement of construction workers by humanoid robots, or perhaps some better form factor like robot spiders that can squeeze into small places - all the benefits of child labor but with double the appendages and double the productivity! However, I'm not worried about the possibility of a robot takeover. The American people's final safeguard against a robot uprising is the irrationality of imperial weights and measures. Robots are digitals and can't do fractions like us higher beings. That's why I'm building my data centers measuring everything in cubits.
    - bluGill 2mo ago
      As an engineer in the US - we already do all the math in metric units. There are conversion functions in the UI layer to transform our units to whatever you want to see. (they also convert metric units if you don't like the units were are using internally)
      - anigbrowl 2mo ago
        Well let me know when US stores stop selling everything in imperial units and framing is done in metric.
- quickthrowman 2mo ago
  > Projects I work on have seen prices soar. Could you be more specific? Things are still competitive in the large commercial electrical market I am bidding in, if you’re bidding to make more than 10-15% you’ll get underbid by someone willing to accept a lower profit margin.
- metalman 2mo ago
  I am, exactly right this minuit, trying to explain that I am not able to quote competitivly for certain types of specialised metal work as there are specialists for that, but am facing insistent inquirys anyway.I do clean sheet custom one of a kind projects as a rule, for which, due to AI recomending my company through some imaculate process, I am exploring how much I can charge for helping the singuarity along, though all in all I am glad I have other skill sets to deploy should we run the whole thing into the ground.
- deleted 2mo ago
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- hyperbovine 2mo ago
  tbf, I don't think Wagyu cows were that thrilled about their lot in life before Wagyu became a thing, either.
  - HeyLaughingBoy 2mo ago
    You may have a unique perspective on that, though...
- heaney-555 2mo ago
  >a lot of other better uses for their labor Who on Earth are you to decide what is the "better" use for labor? And do you scrutinize every construction project or only AI? Is it a waste when contractors build a temporary set for a trashy reality TV show? A factory that makes cosmetics for dogs? Having someone the arbiter of what is the "right" use of labor is communism. In capitalism, people get to decide for themselves what they work on and what they buy.
  - Gud 2mo ago
    Uhm, aren't we all allowed to have an opinion on what's best for mankind? FWIW I am a high voltage test engineer. I used to be an electrician. I would prefer to build the substations that power machines for the benefit of all mankind, rather than data centers that feed the already wealthy. For example, keep the lights on for schools. You have a warped view of the world if you believe anything should be allowed to be built just because someone has the capital to build it.
    - munksbeer 2mo ago
      These sort of moral grandstanding arguments are annoying.
      - Gud 2mo ago
        There is no "moral grandstanding". I wish to live in a functional society.
        munksbeer 2mo ago
        You're framing it so you can't lose by making the argument seem like a moral choice between "have data centres" or "live in a functional society". That's a fallacy, and it is moral grandstanding. It's a useful way to win internet arguments (and internet points), but it is just a debate ending strategy.
        2mo ago
- higginsniggins 2mo ago
  wouldn't the analogy be Wagyu farmers?
- DEF14A 2mo ago
  "It also prices out a lot of other better uses for their labor...." "Projects I work on..."
  - estearum 2mo ago
    Considering we are in a gigantic housing shortage, it would be great if a house didn't have to compete for talent with a data center.
    - Permit 2mo ago
      The housing shortage has nothing to do with a lack of electrical engineers or plumbers. It’s entirely self inflicted and cheaper electricians will not change that. More directly: I doubt there will be a meaningful increase in housing in states that have banned construction of new data centers (NY, Maine) than those where data centers are allowed to be built.
      - estearum 2mo ago
        You don't work in construction do you? Lack of skilled tradesmen is a widespread problem and a major source of project delay (on top of massively higher housing production costs). I assume next comes the zoning-causes-all-shortages and if only we could fix zoning then we'd solve housing – a thesis for which there's zero evidence.
        AngryData 2mo ago
        That "lack" of labor is the norm because construction is a boom-bust business and nobody wants to pay to retain talent and skills they aren't actively profiting off. And very few want to spend time training new people when they are currently earning 3x their normal rate working a boom cycle. If the AI boom crashes, how many of these people will get laid off and unable to find comparable paying work for years afterward? Even if it picks up again 5 years later, many of those people have moved on to new careers. And the only way to get them back, even temporarily, is pay them way more than their current career to pay for their losses and hardships of quiting their current career path. So ultimately boils down to "pay people more" because you aren't just incentivizing people to work for you specifically during a boom cycle, you are also trying to poach workers out of other industries for a job they know is temporary.
- jorblumesea 2mo ago
  resi has been drained pretty hard in the last 10 years, this just adds more fuel to the fire.
goodpoint 2mo ago
For the next 6 months until they get all replaced by robots
- goatlover 2mo ago
  Doubt we'll see electricians, plumbers or carpenters being replaced anytime soon.
  - saturn8601 2mo ago
    Factory workers maybe but all processes have to be redesigned with design for robotic automation in mind. That will displace a lot of people and they will naturally go into the trades since the skills translate more easily so while I agree they wont be replaced there may be downward pricing pressure. I hear China is doing a lot of this already to stave off their upcoming demographic collapse. I haven't seen raw details or videos though other than demonstration stuff (anyone have anything to share?)
    - bluGill 2mo ago
      “Every time you ask for another dollar in wages, a thousand more robots start looking more practical.” -Roger B. Smith (GM CEO in the 1980s). Factories have been automating for decades. Last factory tour I took they said in 1950 this plant had over 2000 employees working, now (2019) about 200. Then he pointed to the laser cutter which alone replaced 150 workers with just 2. This factory is not considered very automated by modern standards either.
      - saturn8601 2mo ago
        Yes I am very familiar with auto automation. They are amazing. Tesla went so overboard that maybe the ROI isn't even there for some processes (installing wheels on a car by industrial robot? They repeated the mistakes GM made in the 70s and 80s with being too early and robots being ripped out and left in the parking lots. Already products are designed for robotic automation: reduce fasteners, make a single piece do more, make sure a blind one armed dumb person can put the thing together(thats basically the industrial single arm robots you have in factories today). Still maybe this time is different...but to be fair I put the caveat that you must design the product from the ground up for this new kind of potential automation. (I was talking about the new bipedal vision robots not the old school industrial robot arms) What that looks like? Well the Chinese are probably cooking something up for sure and hopefully somewhere in the US its happening as well.
emsign 2mo ago
[flagged]
- jareklupinski 2mo ago
  > home owneer and landlords don't get any contracts anymore and prices skyrocket for normal people i like how you differentiated "normal people"
- deleted 2mo ago
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- duplessitous 2mo ago
  >50% of the US population live in single-family, detached houses. It is one thing to be combative, it is another to be combative and wrong. "normal" people live in detached homes
  - therealdrag0 2mo ago
    What’s the detachment of the home have to do with it?
    - duplessitous 2mo ago
      It specifies that these are not condos, these are homes on lots. "Normal" people live on properties with a yard, not apartments I guess us "Normal" people prefer to discuss all relevant information and not just post jaded comments that defy reality
      - therealdrag0 2mo ago
        I still don’t understand sorry. Wouldn’t detached homes still need electricians and carpenters and their pricing be impacted by their demand elsewhere?
fl4regun 2mo ago
just don't forget these are temporary, eventually there will be "enough" data centers, and none of these jobs will exist, so if you are planning a 20 year + career, don't count on this being the norm.
- jeffbee 2mo ago
  Nah. If USA returns to its senses we are going to need tons of tradespeople to build all the stuff we need for the billion Americans.
  - danny_codes 2mo ago
    It seems unlikely there will be a billion Americans. Population growth is 0.3% and will likely decline further as native FTR declines.
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  - ElProlactin 2mo ago
    > If USA returns to its senses we are going to need tons of tradespeople to build all the stuff we need for the billion Americans You're missing the /s? The only thing that has been keeping the US population from declining is immigration, and the US isn't exactly the most welcoming country anymore.
    - oblio 2mo ago
      Fairly sure last year was the first year of US population decline in a long time.
      - apothegm 2mo ago
        Yes. Because until now it was propped up by immigration — and mostly legal immigration — which has dropped precipitously.
Theodores 2mo ago
Allegedly many an American 'believes' that Jesus will be back some time right about now. They are serious about this belief, however, it is never explained as to how he waves a magic wand and fixes the many, many entirely man-made problems we have. But now I see the light. Jesus was a carpenter, right? I am imagining that Jesus, with his carpentry skills, is driving right now in his Chevy truck to the job site, to help erect that data centre for one of our billionaire overlords. Just saying, it could happen, and is probably needed to happen, if this data centre build out is to get anywhere near completion.
- zapataband1 2mo ago
  supply side jesus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Jesus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Jesus
- krapp 2mo ago
  >however, it is never explained as to how he waves a magic wand and fixes the many, many entirely man-made problems we have. It's explained in the Book of Revelations - Jesus comes back and kills everyone who isn't Christian (and actually most Christians too) with plagues and fire and violence and burns the world down to ashes. And then (something something multi-headed dragon something something Whore of Babylon) a giant cube-shaped crystal city drops down from space lit by God's radiance and all of the dead Christians come back wearing white robes to live there and eat and drink and praise Jesus forever and never leave because why would you? And belief in this is legitimately a big part of why we will never take climate change seriously.
  - smalltorch 2mo ago
    >Jesus comes back and kills everyone who isn't Christian (and actually most Christians too) I don't recall this part what's the reference
    - krapp 2mo ago
      Are you under the impression that after the seven seals and seven trumpets and four horsemen and oceans turning to blood and earthquakes and famines and everything leading to a new Heaven and new Earth that most people will survive unscathed? The entire thesis of Christian eschatology is that everyone who isn't Christian burns in hell. And Matthew says regarding the end times "Many will say to me in that day, Lord, Lord, have we not prophesied in thy name? and in thy name have cast out devils? and in thy name done many wonderful works? And then will I profess unto them, I never knew you: depart from me, ye that work iniquity." Maybe you should read your Bible again, it's pretty clear that Heaven is meant to be a very exclusive club that even most Christians won't get into.
HDBaseT 2mo ago
Tradespeople have always been getting paid well with lots of work. Most electricians will make more than the average sysadmin, senior developer or network engineer here. The amount of people getting into trades over the past decade has dropped drastically. There is no reason a fully qualified, even residential electrician cannot make 200k a year. Electricians aren't even the highest paid trade, plumbers are.
- someothherguyy 2mo ago
  > There is no reason a fully qualified, even residential electrician cannot make 200k a year Where? BLS Data https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/electricians.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/electric... "The median annual wage for electricians was $62,350 in May 2024. The median wage is the wage at which half the workers in an occupation earned more than that amount and half earned less. The lowest 10 percent earned less than $39,430, and the highest 10 percent earned more than $106,030." Seems like there is overwhelming reason for one to not make $200k/year.
- dahart 2mo ago
  > Tradespeople have always been getting paid well with lots of work. > Most electricians will make more than the average sysadmin, senior developer or network engineer here. Where are you getting this? The median plumber in the US makes just under $63k, which is below the ~$65k median pay for all jobs in the US. The median sysadmin makes over $96k - a more than 50% higher median. The top 10% bracket for sysadmins is also 50% higher than plumbers. Why are people claiming that plumbers and tradespeople are raking it in when they’re clearly not? > The amount of people getting into trades over the past decade has dropped drastically The BLS projections for the next decade have plumbers at 4% growth and sysadmins at -4% - in decline. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/plumbers-pipefitters-and-steamfitters.htm#tab-1 https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/plumbers... https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/network-and-computer-systems-administrators.htm#tab-1 https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...

It's nice to hear tradespeople getting paid well with lots of work. I'm happy for them :-)

by kristov 2mo ago

It's nice to hear tradespeople getting paid well with lots of work. I'm happy for them :-)

Yes, that's good. It also prices out a lot of other better uses for their labor. Projects I work on have seen prices soar. I don't consider building the things everyone hates because they promise concentration of wealth and an attack on labor at the expense of building literally anything else to be somehow a big W for labor because a few people get a slightly higher temporary paycheck. Ask the Wagyu cows how they feel about the hand they are dealt.

bpodgursky 2mo ago
There's sort of no winning here! AI unemploys middle-class workers: AI is stealing jobs from the middle class! AI employs unionized middle-class workers: AI is stealing cheap labor from the rest of us!
- paul7986 2mo ago
  And in time AI robots will reduce the need for these blue collar workers who are presently helping replace the white collar workers. Just learned of a new acronym today "NILF," not in the labor force with over one million supposed NILFs out there -- dropped out and gave up.
  - anthk 2mo ago
    Good luck with robots traing to lay up bricks, or doing plumbing in a home.
    - paul7986 2mo ago
      Ummmm in time it's inevitable as in 2026 you do not need any skill to be a computer programmer. AI has replaced that once valuable skill and will continue it's way through ever white collar job til the robots (5 to 10 years) start taking the blue collar jobs away. The blue collar job boom is great present day, but what they are helping build is their machine driven replacement. Maybe this all sounds hyperbolic, but it's what Musk and all the AI overlords have said as far back as a 2013 or prior. Musk and Altman have noted the need for everyone to be on welfare (Universal Basic Income) since then. And no doubt we see this taking shape now within white collar jobs that once we held in high regard like programming being replaced by AI. I just created a whole startup web design, front-end, back-end development, native iPhone app, Android app and more using Codex (previously i hired others to help me a UI Design Front End guy).
      - Shitty-kitty 2mo ago
        Vibe coding by people with no programming skills is not going to happen. What will happen is moving to higher and higher code representations. A compiler is already doing 99% of the actual coding when you realize that the only language computers understand is assembly.
        paul7986 2mo ago
        I am a UX Researcher, UX Design and Developer by trade since 2009. I don't know iphone development, python, any back end stuff and or in depth JS stuff. But, Codex does and just by typing I just published a startup in python in two weeks using Codex and it's iPhone app will be available soon. How do you not think AI will not destroy programming jobs if anyone can type to create anything they want or share your screen with Codex and have it guide you via voice? I just feed screenshot after screenshot to Codex to understand what I need to do next. Look forward to being able to share my screen and have it guide me via a voice conversation.
        Shitty-kitty 2mo ago
        What is you opinion of U.I "designed" by someone without UX experience, thru prompting. Most likely you cringe at how bad they are, as do the reset of us. Similarly, programmers have a name for code generated without a coder guiding and reviewing, A.I slop.
        paul7986 2mo ago
        Users don't care if they hear amazing song and don't know its AI Music slop or their favorite new iPhone game is powered by slop. The entrepreneurs pumping out said slop and making some to a lot of money don't care what old time programmers think of their slop. They are making money! Things change and this change is hard for sure ... i'm living it and embracing the change by becoming a vibe coder and starting up businesses. As for UI Gemini created the same type of UI I would've yet I did tell it what was needed following my years/years of design experience (less is always more).
    - bluGill 2mo ago
      Making a brick laying robot is easy. I'm happy to do that if you want to fund my mid-life crisis... Note that I did not promise my brick laying robot can effectively compete with human break layers on cost. I fully expect my robot to be at least double the cost of humans doing the same work, and it will be less flexible than humans as well (meaning you need a different robot for different buildings)
      - rootsudo 2mo ago
        How would it be double the cost if it can work day and night and on holidays and during bad weather and not have strikes?
        bluGill 2mo ago
        Double is probably a low estimate. There is a lot of engineering required in the robot. Much of the effort is setup, someone still needs to bring it to the site, and feed the blueprints in. Cleanup is also a lot of the cost. Not to mention mortar is made of sand which is abrasive and will wear it out fast meaning lots of maintenance work. Working day and night isn't helpful as the limit to speed is waiting for the mortar to cure before doing the next row. (Generally you do about 5 rows and then wait a day)
        rootsudo 2mo ago
        could the robots not do more than one site? 5 rows, move to other side, a house if rectangle does have four sides, and a subdivison has multiple houses?
- palmotea 2mo ago
  > There's sort of no winning here! > AI unemploys middle-class workers: AI is stealing jobs from the middle class! > AI employs unionized middle-class workers: AI is stealing cheap labor from the rest of us! Come on, you've got to know it's not going to employ those "unionized middle-class workers" for long. Their jobs are sort of like these jobs: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/10/business/ai-white-collar-jobs.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/10/business/ai-white-collar-... ("people participat[ing] in feeding their own careers into the A.I. wood chipper...Many people who contract for these companies understand that this is a short-term opportunity...before they themselves are automated out of the job"). And yeah, there's "sort of no winning" when you're gobbling up resources to build stuff people don't like.
  - triceratops 2mo ago
    But that's true of most carpentry and electrical jobs. In-house carpenters and electricians are a minority.
    - palmotea 2mo ago
      I was responding to the implied symmetry in the GP: the "employs" does not balance out the "unemploys", because the unemployment is likely permanent and the employment temporary. And then there's the fucked up resource allocation: throwing around insane amounts of money, driving up the prices of things the people actually want, to build hated things for investors and billionaires, which is a separate issue.
      - triceratops 2mo ago
        The unemployment of electricians and carpenters is permanent? On a long-enough timescale, where we have much more advanced robotics, probably. Not in the near or medium-term. The fucked up resource allocation is itself an indicator of wealth inequality. A generation ago growing companies had to go public to access funding. Now they can find all the capital they need in private markets.
  - SR2Z 2mo ago
- gib444 2mo ago
  > AI employs unionized middle-class workers: AI is stealing cheap labor from the rest of us! What cheap labour? Tradespeople are not cheap (especially if you factor in the quality of the work). This just makes them even more expensive. Meaning a big impact on homes – you know, the things people and families live in, in order to survive. Pretty important
  - logicchains 2mo ago
    >Meaning a big impact on homes – you know, the things people and families live in, in order to survive. Maybe those people should pay their tradespeople better then. Everybody's all "workers should be paid more" until they're the one paying the worker.
    - gib444 2mo ago
      Everyone should just compete with the trillions of dollars of capital floating around for AI? And it's their fault for suddenly being 'poor'? Sounds like you're assuming people are paying pennies for labour. I don't think that's true at all While we're at it, how much should small bathroom, 2 week renovation cost? $100,000 in labour?
      - kasey_junk 2mo ago
        That small bathroom job is literally the worst case scenario for a tradesman. They have to work nearly as hard to line that up as better paying longer term commercial work. The residential buyer is the source of much less repeat work, is harder to deal with, more price conscious and harder to collect from than the commercial buyer they could be working for. Anyone that can competently market, manage, and execute that small job can do the same for better customers.
        SoftTalker 2mo ago
        And even in residential, building million-dollar houses is easier (or at least not harder) and more profitable than building "affordable" starter homes.
- customguy 2mo ago
  The employment is temporary, what follows a net negative, is the idea. And "AI" as a concept has has no agency. This is all about humans who seek to further concentrate wealth.
  - deleted 2mo ago
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- deleted 2mo ago
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- vouaobrasil 2mo ago
  That's correct! AI is a negative for society no matter how you look at it. That's the entire idea!
- anigbrowl 2mo ago
  That's pretty disingenuous. The people losing jobs to AI can't just pivot into the trades. When you think about it, companies announcing they're pivoting into some other area where they have no prior background is usually a bit of a desperation move, aided by the fact that companies don't need to be licensed in any way to offer particular services, other than maybe in the military/national security sector. As for the second point, it's true that this is just old-fashioned supply and demand. I predict the outcome is that there's a rush into the construction/contracting sector followed by a bust due to either the tech bubble popping and construction slowing way down, or the replacement of construction workers by humanoid robots, or perhaps some better form factor like robot spiders that can squeeze into small places - all the benefits of child labor but with double the appendages and double the productivity! However, I'm not worried about the possibility of a robot takeover. The American people's final safeguard against a robot uprising is the irrationality of imperial weights and measures. Robots are digitals and can't do fractions like us higher beings. That's why I'm building my data centers measuring everything in cubits.
  - bluGill 2mo ago
    As an engineer in the US - we already do all the math in metric units. There are conversion functions in the UI layer to transform our units to whatever you want to see. (they also convert metric units if you don't like the units were are using internally)
    - anigbrowl 2mo ago
      Well let me know when US stores stop selling everything in imperial units and framing is done in metric.
quickthrowman 2mo ago
> Projects I work on have seen prices soar. Could you be more specific? Things are still competitive in the large commercial electrical market I am bidding in, if you’re bidding to make more than 10-15% you’ll get underbid by someone willing to accept a lower profit margin.
metalman 2mo ago
I am, exactly right this minuit, trying to explain that I am not able to quote competitivly for certain types of specialised metal work as there are specialists for that, but am facing insistent inquirys anyway.I do clean sheet custom one of a kind projects as a rule, for which, due to AI recomending my company through some imaculate process, I am exploring how much I can charge for helping the singuarity along, though all in all I am glad I have other skill sets to deploy should we run the whole thing into the ground.
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hyperbovine 2mo ago
tbf, I don't think Wagyu cows were that thrilled about their lot in life before Wagyu became a thing, either.
- HeyLaughingBoy 2mo ago
  You may have a unique perspective on that, though...
heaney-555 2mo ago
>a lot of other better uses for their labor Who on Earth are you to decide what is the "better" use for labor? And do you scrutinize every construction project or only AI? Is it a waste when contractors build a temporary set for a trashy reality TV show? A factory that makes cosmetics for dogs? Having someone the arbiter of what is the "right" use of labor is communism. In capitalism, people get to decide for themselves what they work on and what they buy.
- Gud 2mo ago
  Uhm, aren't we all allowed to have an opinion on what's best for mankind? FWIW I am a high voltage test engineer. I used to be an electrician. I would prefer to build the substations that power machines for the benefit of all mankind, rather than data centers that feed the already wealthy. For example, keep the lights on for schools. You have a warped view of the world if you believe anything should be allowed to be built just because someone has the capital to build it.
  - munksbeer 2mo ago
    These sort of moral grandstanding arguments are annoying.
    - Gud 2mo ago
      There is no "moral grandstanding". I wish to live in a functional society.
      - munksbeer 2mo ago
        You're framing it so you can't lose by making the argument seem like a moral choice between "have data centres" or "live in a functional society". That's a fallacy, and it is moral grandstanding. It's a useful way to win internet arguments (and internet points), but it is just a debate ending strategy.
        2mo ago
higginsniggins 2mo ago
wouldn't the analogy be Wagyu farmers?
DEF14A 2mo ago
"It also prices out a lot of other better uses for their labor...." "Projects I work on..."
- estearum 2mo ago
  Considering we are in a gigantic housing shortage, it would be great if a house didn't have to compete for talent with a data center.
  - Permit 2mo ago
    The housing shortage has nothing to do with a lack of electrical engineers or plumbers. It’s entirely self inflicted and cheaper electricians will not change that. More directly: I doubt there will be a meaningful increase in housing in states that have banned construction of new data centers (NY, Maine) than those where data centers are allowed to be built.
    - estearum 2mo ago
      You don't work in construction do you? Lack of skilled tradesmen is a widespread problem and a major source of project delay (on top of massively higher housing production costs). I assume next comes the zoning-causes-all-shortages and if only we could fix zoning then we'd solve housing – a thesis for which there's zero evidence.
      - AngryData 2mo ago
        That "lack" of labor is the norm because construction is a boom-bust business and nobody wants to pay to retain talent and skills they aren't actively profiting off. And very few want to spend time training new people when they are currently earning 3x their normal rate working a boom cycle. If the AI boom crashes, how many of these people will get laid off and unable to find comparable paying work for years afterward? Even if it picks up again 5 years later, many of those people have moved on to new careers. And the only way to get them back, even temporarily, is pay them way more than their current career to pay for their losses and hardships of quiting their current career path. So ultimately boils down to "pay people more" because you aren't just incentivizing people to work for you specifically during a boom cycle, you are also trying to poach workers out of other industries for a job they know is temporary.
jorblumesea 2mo ago
resi has been drained pretty hard in the last 10 years, this just adds more fuel to the fire.

goodpoint 2mo ago

For the next 6 months until they get all replaced by robots

goatlover 2mo ago
Doubt we'll see electricians, plumbers or carpenters being replaced anytime soon.
- saturn8601 2mo ago
  Factory workers maybe but all processes have to be redesigned with design for robotic automation in mind. That will displace a lot of people and they will naturally go into the trades since the skills translate more easily so while I agree they wont be replaced there may be downward pricing pressure. I hear China is doing a lot of this already to stave off their upcoming demographic collapse. I haven't seen raw details or videos though other than demonstration stuff (anyone have anything to share?)
  - bluGill 2mo ago
    “Every time you ask for another dollar in wages, a thousand more robots start looking more practical.” -Roger B. Smith (GM CEO in the 1980s). Factories have been automating for decades. Last factory tour I took they said in 1950 this plant had over 2000 employees working, now (2019) about 200. Then he pointed to the laser cutter which alone replaced 150 workers with just 2. This factory is not considered very automated by modern standards either.
    - saturn8601 2mo ago
      Yes I am very familiar with auto automation. They are amazing. Tesla went so overboard that maybe the ROI isn't even there for some processes (installing wheels on a car by industrial robot? They repeated the mistakes GM made in the 70s and 80s with being too early and robots being ripped out and left in the parking lots. Already products are designed for robotic automation: reduce fasteners, make a single piece do more, make sure a blind one armed dumb person can put the thing together(thats basically the industrial single arm robots you have in factories today). Still maybe this time is different...but to be fair I put the caveat that you must design the product from the ground up for this new kind of potential automation. (I was talking about the new bipedal vision robots not the old school industrial robot arms) What that looks like? Well the Chinese are probably cooking something up for sure and hopefully somewhere in the US its happening as well.

emsign 2mo ago

[flagged]

jareklupinski 2mo ago
> home owneer and landlords don't get any contracts anymore and prices skyrocket for normal people i like how you differentiated "normal people"
deleted 2mo ago
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duplessitous 2mo ago
>50% of the US population live in single-family, detached houses. It is one thing to be combative, it is another to be combative and wrong. "normal" people live in detached homes
- therealdrag0 2mo ago
  What’s the detachment of the home have to do with it?
  - duplessitous 2mo ago
    It specifies that these are not condos, these are homes on lots. "Normal" people live on properties with a yard, not apartments I guess us "Normal" people prefer to discuss all relevant information and not just post jaded comments that defy reality
    - therealdrag0 2mo ago
      I still don’t understand sorry. Wouldn’t detached homes still need electricians and carpenters and their pricing be impacted by their demand elsewhere?

fl4regun 2mo ago

just don't forget these are temporary, eventually there will be "enough" data centers, and none of these jobs will exist, so if you are planning a 20 year + career, don't count on this being the norm.

jeffbee 2mo ago
Nah. If USA returns to its senses we are going to need tons of tradespeople to build all the stuff we need for the billion Americans.
- danny_codes 2mo ago
  It seems unlikely there will be a billion Americans. Population growth is 0.3% and will likely decline further as native FTR declines.
  - deleted 2mo ago
    [deleted]
- ElProlactin 2mo ago
  > If USA returns to its senses we are going to need tons of tradespeople to build all the stuff we need for the billion Americans You're missing the /s? The only thing that has been keeping the US population from declining is immigration, and the US isn't exactly the most welcoming country anymore.
  - oblio 2mo ago
    Fairly sure last year was the first year of US population decline in a long time.
    - apothegm 2mo ago
      Yes. Because until now it was propped up by immigration — and mostly legal immigration — which has dropped precipitously.

Theodores 2mo ago

Allegedly many an American 'believes' that Jesus will be back some time right about now. They are serious about this belief, however, it is never explained as to how he waves a magic wand and fixes the many, many entirely man-made problems we have. But now I see the light. Jesus was a carpenter, right? I am imagining that Jesus, with his carpentry skills, is driving right now in his Chevy truck to the job site, to help erect that data centre for one of our billionaire overlords. Just saying, it could happen, and is probably needed to happen, if this data centre build out is to get anywhere near completion.

zapataband1 2mo ago
supply side jesus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Jesus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Jesus
krapp 2mo ago
>however, it is never explained as to how he waves a magic wand and fixes the many, many entirely man-made problems we have. It's explained in the Book of Revelations - Jesus comes back and kills everyone who isn't Christian (and actually most Christians too) with plagues and fire and violence and burns the world down to ashes. And then (something something multi-headed dragon something something Whore of Babylon) a giant cube-shaped crystal city drops down from space lit by God's radiance and all of the dead Christians come back wearing white robes to live there and eat and drink and praise Jesus forever and never leave because why would you? And belief in this is legitimately a big part of why we will never take climate change seriously.
- smalltorch 2mo ago
  >Jesus comes back and kills everyone who isn't Christian (and actually most Christians too) I don't recall this part what's the reference
  - krapp 2mo ago
    Are you under the impression that after the seven seals and seven trumpets and four horsemen and oceans turning to blood and earthquakes and famines and everything leading to a new Heaven and new Earth that most people will survive unscathed? The entire thesis of Christian eschatology is that everyone who isn't Christian burns in hell. And Matthew says regarding the end times "Many will say to me in that day, Lord, Lord, have we not prophesied in thy name? and in thy name have cast out devils? and in thy name done many wonderful works? And then will I profess unto them, I never knew you: depart from me, ye that work iniquity." Maybe you should read your Bible again, it's pretty clear that Heaven is meant to be a very exclusive club that even most Christians won't get into.

HDBaseT 2mo ago

Tradespeople have always been getting paid well with lots of work. Most electricians will make more than the average sysadmin, senior developer or network engineer here. The amount of people getting into trades over the past decade has dropped drastically. There is no reason a fully qualified, even residential electrician cannot make 200k a year. Electricians aren't even the highest paid trade, plumbers are.

someothherguyy 2mo ago
> There is no reason a fully qualified, even residential electrician cannot make 200k a year Where? BLS Data https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/electricians.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/electric... "The median annual wage for electricians was $62,350 in May 2024. The median wage is the wage at which half the workers in an occupation earned more than that amount and half earned less. The lowest 10 percent earned less than $39,430, and the highest 10 percent earned more than $106,030." Seems like there is overwhelming reason for one to not make $200k/year.
dahart 2mo ago
> Tradespeople have always been getting paid well with lots of work. > Most electricians will make more than the average sysadmin, senior developer or network engineer here. Where are you getting this? The median plumber in the US makes just under $63k, which is below the ~$65k median pay for all jobs in the US. The median sysadmin makes over $96k - a more than 50% higher median. The top 10% bracket for sysadmins is also 50% higher than plumbers. Why are people claiming that plumbers and tradespeople are raking it in when they’re clearly not? > The amount of people getting into trades over the past decade has dropped drastically The BLS projections for the next decade have plumbers at 4% growth and sysadmins at -4% - in decline. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/plumbers-pipefitters-and-steamfitters.htm#tab-1 https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/plumbers... https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/network-and-computer-systems-administrators.htm#tab-1 https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...