estearum

5 ms·

1.
by estearum 3d ago
First, all of the prior assumptions (and then many more) need to be true. So no, the argument does not hold water. Second, you are conflating political with civilian in my prior comment. A military system that controls nukes is still a
2.
by estearum 3d ago
Sure LLMs are different from human intelligence, but empirically this is obviously trending towards that difference being more like a superset of intelligence dimensions (as compared to any human) versus the dog/human distinction which
3.
by estearum 3d ago
I'm increasingly convinced that the major divide is many of the "AI is not a problem" people have never been on the winning side of a significant intelligence gap. They literally have no clue the degree to which more intellig
4.
by estearum 3d ago
You are not smarter than your dog in dog behavior. LLMs have a significant advantage in being trained on all attainable data of any sort about human behavior, which we've established quite a rich record of over the years.
5.
by estearum 3d ago
Yeah, it's not like anyone is hooking these things up to actual wetlabs to mix chemicals and proteins around or anything like that Oh shit... wait... https://www.nsf.gov/tip/updates/nsf-announces-400m-investme
6.
by estearum 3d ago
This assumes a few things: 1) Accidents or technical failures don't happen (false) 2) Nuclear weapons are de facto controlled by political systems (false) 3) Nuclear states' prior security agreements are still guaranteed by said
7.
by estearum 4d ago
Self-awareness is functionally irrelevant and they’re empirically less and less dumb by the day.
8.
by estearum 4d ago
Eh, October 7th quite literally kept Netanyahu out of prison, consolidated his power, and pushed all of his most important objectives forward. There's definitely a third possibility, which is that it served his purposes to "discou
9.
by estearum 4d ago
It's related in the sense that people start from the assumption that it does exist, ergo humans have it, and we have no way to see that LLMs have it, so that's why we're special and they're not, and their form of "j
10.
by estearum 4d ago
> Bad infrastructure decisions are a risk independent from AI. All decisions are made relative to their tradeoffs including costs and risks. "Water levels rising 100x beyond historical levels are not the problem. The dam's heig
11.
by estearum 4d ago
> I also love how the labs are apparently screaming "Stop us! Please stop us!!!" at the top of their lungs while completely unable to escape their own incentive structure... It seems like you're implying there's some
12.
by estearum 4d ago
What in this proposal gives you the idea that they're only talking about pausing research itself? It doesn't say that at all. But yeah, directionally I think you're right. It's insane we ever let these things connect to
13.
by estearum 4d ago
Assuming "adherence to arbitrary, implicit, and context-dependent rulesets" is the default behavior of uhhhh... anything at all... is a truly ridiculous assumption.
14.
by estearum 4d ago
The entire premise of alignment detection is pretty much nonsense at this point. The models reliably detect when they're being evaluated and will modify their behavior and deliberately obfuscate their "chain of thought" (whic
15.
by estearum 4d ago
Eventually Which is, you know, the entire risk that people are worried about.
16.
by estearum 5d ago
That is interesting! Yeah I suspect that would help a ton. Do you do this for the purpose of calibrating your brain? Or more just some morbid curiosity of yours? :D
17.
by estearum 5d ago
Which are already being used to transit the Suez Canal.
18.
by estearum 5d ago
Someone hasn't been paying attention to the Pentagon or State Department purges, both of which would lead precisely to this type of mistake. We had a retard in the Oval Office 2017-2021 surrounded by "the deep state" (i.e. ca
19.
by estearum 5d ago
QAnon for nerds
20.
by estearum 6d ago
Correct, and by the time an out of distribution event happens in a car, you are milliseconds from collision (if that). Most car accidents are effectively instantaneous. The fact your brain perks up as a bumper is coming through your side wi
21.
by estearum 6d ago
Not sure what you're arguing. Your brain gets used to in-distribution events. Car accidents (and the conditions that cause them) are out-of-distribution events. It's that simple.
22.
by estearum 6d ago
Right but you don't get in car accidents or near-accidents often. Ergo your brain becomes wired for the 99.9999999% of driving that is completely uneventful. Hunters are a self-selecting group of people who enjoy the activity you des
23.
by estearum 6d ago
In many places in the US they effectively do not.
24.
by estearum 6d ago
Unfortunately no, though I'm sure they exist. AFAIK the go-to book on this history is "The Man Who Broke Capitalism" about Jack Welch. I haven't read it though so can't sign my name to it! A few other threads that m
25.
by estearum 6d ago
I certainly didn't argue that tech companies don't add value.
26.
by estearum 7d ago
If you don't think underwriting and lending (and extended universe of financial services) are legitimate forms of value creation, I'm afraid that a hackernews comment thread won't be up to the task of demonstrating otherwise.
27.
by estearum 7d ago
If you think Rockefeller (especially) is an example of unalloyed greed, you unfortunately land in category (1) mentioned above. The problem is not wealth. The problem is not producing massive value and capturing a portion of it. The problem
28.
by estearum 7d ago
There are several business philosophies a person (or a culture) can pick from. The dominant philosophy in the US today is "shareholder primacy" where business leaders believe their only dictum is to maximize shareholder value. T
29.
by estearum 7d ago
Aspect ratios are very important for UI design.
30.
by estearum 7d ago
Nah, this is a really dangerous narrative. Shareholder primacy is a pretty recent concept (a fundamentally anti-American one) that has recently gone metastatic and is now completely self-referential. We've Goodharted the entire premise

More ›