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China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

355 points by throwaway_1928 4y ago

RcouF1uZ4gsC 4y ago
Which means that this GitHub repo will soon go down. China has enormous leverage both on GitHub and especially on Microsoft.
- bigcat12345678 4y ago
  I am betting $100 that the repo will stay on.
fuckcensorship 4y ago
https://archive.ph/6fC1Q https://archive.ph/6fC1Q
- Animats 4y ago
  Better coverage in South China Morning Post.[1] [1] https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3185326/china-facing-more-economic-woes-ahead-gdp-release-mortgage https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3185326/c...
  - neonate 4y ago
    https://archive.ph/GFPyG https://archive.ph/GFPyG
toinewx 4y ago
the github repo mentionned in the article (16k stars): https://github.com/WeNeedHome/SummaryOfLoanSuspension https://github.com/WeNeedHome/SummaryOfLoanSuspension
- schleck8 4y ago
  > Have faith in the party and the government. The party and the government will definitely give the people a satisfactory explanation, here is only for statistics, do not have excessive remarks! Then a link to a Mao speech. Weird
  - elteto 4y ago
    They have to remove the risk of being labeled anti-party or dissidents. They do this by appealing to the ideology, at least superficially. Of course, this is a double edge play. Notice how the message boils down to “the party is right! It’s probably the fault of some dark, greedy figure(s) somewhere!”. But by absolving the government from ever being wrong you remove the possibility of them ever improving and fixing themselves. So someone(s) get sent to jail, others are demoted, and everything is swept unde the rug, but the structural problems remain and will appear again and again.
    - refurb 4y ago
      All problems in China are due to reactionary elements that are trying to overthrow the Party! And since the Party represents all Chinese, these elements are clearly attacking the Chinese people themselves so the only solution is to rally around the Party and help it solve the problem! /s
  - mensetmanusman 4y ago
    The protesting citizens do this as a plea for help from the national government. They know that the true believers in the national government need to be kowtowed to. It is a risk to your life to protest the national government, but the national government allows protest to local governments as a means to reduce steam buildup. This results in over the top worship of Mao during local government protests as a hedge, because it creates a potential photo op where the local government is tearing down praise to Mao.
    - TMWNN 4y ago
      >The protesting citizens do this as a plea for help from the national government. They know that the true believers in the national government need to be kowtowed to. Could the plea for help from the national government be sincere? My understanding is that in early Soviet history, many people were sure that if Lenin/Stalin knew about the awful things local commissars were doing, the great leader would surely order such acts to stop. Obviously by the Brezhnev/Andropov years very, very few people would be so gullible as to believe such, and I suppose that it's awfully late in the history of the PRC and CCP to expect otherwise of the Chinese, but the thought at least came to mind. Another way to interpret this would be a (much, much more serious) counterpart, in the US and the West, during the past half decade of the de facto necessity in most parts of online discourse of prefixing anything that is not left of center-adherent with "I hate Trump, but".
m3kw9 4y ago
They can’t block GitHub because a lot of chinese tech firms depend on it. That is something very hard to develop locally because the entire world can contribute
- vkou 4y ago
  They can't block GitHub, but all it takes is one phone call to Redmond, and their problem will go away. Microsoft has no issue with getting rid of politically problematic repos. https://www.technadu.com/github-removes-protest-organizing-app-spain/83581/ https://www.technadu.com/github-removes-protest-organizing-a... - when Microsoft won't respect the right to protest in Spain, they won't give two figs about that same right in China. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en/article/8xe3v5/github-medium-twitter-delete-database-of-ice-agents https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en/article/8xe... - for another example, this time in the US.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - ganyu 4y ago
    What I can tell you is that GitHub is barely accessible in Mainland.
  - sofixa 4y ago
    If you can't see how the two examples you cite are problematic, i don't know what to tell you. There's a difference between protest and sedition, and the Catalan independence movement went full in on treason. The second is doxxy, so it is understandable to an extent.
    - vkou 4y ago
      > the Catalan independence movement went full in on treason There's a few hundred million mainlanders, and the entire leadership of the CCP who feel the same way about Hong Kong. Perhaps Madrid and Beijing should compare notes?
helge9210 4y ago
Let's assume, there is no censorship and anyone can join the boycott. What is the intended successful outcome of the boycott? If noone would do anything (no boycott), some customers would have to pay mortgage for apartments that won't be finished ever. With boycott, the blast radius will be bigger, possibly affecting the banking system. What options do authorities have?
- thriftwy 4y ago
  Go along with the law? People who boycott mortgages get their properties confiscated by court eventually, and if any developments suffer issues government should aid developers to ensure any paid customers get their property done.
  - pessimizer 4y ago
    But the boycotts are rational, because even the Chinese government thinks that the developers are overextended and may fail. They seem to be taking the most careful, benign option.
    - thriftwy 4y ago
      Chinese government should offer hard guarantees that all properties would eventually be completed, and at the same time that bad lenders may lose theirs. In Russia it's quite common occurrence that a very late project by a failed developer is eventually completed and the lenders get their apartments at last, after regional government intervention. In China it should be even simpler as the money never leave the escrow account. I wonder if there are un-escrow provisions if developer fails to deliver - in theory there should be no risk at all.
      - lazide 4y ago
        Why should they?
        thriftwy 4y ago
TheMagicHorsey 4y ago
I know there are enormous profits to be made in China, but I wonder if American investors ever think to themselves ... by investing in this place I am strengthening a regime that ultimately is the enemy of my values.
- Jaygles 4y ago
  Merchants have no country https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Jefferson/03-07-02-0167 https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Jefferson/03-07-02-0...
- vkou 4y ago
  China is not at all incompatible with those values. And even if it were, that wouldn't be an issue - business interests on the whole have consistently been a strong ally of fascism and authoritarianism.
  - throwaway4aday 4y ago
    The current Chinese government certainly is.
    - vkou 4y ago
      Why? It keeps order, it keeps the proles from getting uppity, and it's not much in the business of wealth redistribution (unlike it's liberal democracy counterparts on the other side of the world). Likewise, business as a whole in the US (and elsewhere) has no issue supporting the more authoritarian and repressive of the two political parties. They prefer it, in fact, because of what it does for them in limiting worker and consumer rights. When you're in the upper class of society, most of the repressive rules don't personally apply to you.
      - throwaway4aday 4y ago
        And yet Chinese citizens of all walks of life have been immigrating to my humble neck of the woods for the past decade (and they're welcome to, everyone I've met is super nice and grateful to be here) while I've heard of 0 people moving from my locale to China, I wonder why that is.
marianatom 4y ago
I was one of those people that thought China would never collapse due to its iron grip on economy and population. But look at recent activities * Chinese GDP shrinks to 0.4% in Q2 2022. Which is still suspicious because Shanghai economic activities declined -40%, and real estate overall activities dropped -30% * Massive mortgage boycott. Also public protests against lost deposits and unable to access bank is being aired out in Chinese social media. Also property bond crash spreading * The 1 billion people data leak has some experts analyzing the data and figuring that the Chinese population is already in decline, and only at 1.2B currently. Which means the population is going to half its size sooner than 2100 * Chinese firms are still selling Russia good its military needs https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-firms-are-selling-russia-goods-its-military-needs-to-keep-fighting-in-ukraine-11657877403 https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-firms-are-selling-russi..., incurring the wraths of normal folks in Europe and other allied countries. * Zero covid practice still going on, with tons of public discontent. There are videos of the people waiting in line to test in the pouring rain and huge wind! * Zeihan gaining more popularity, which implies that people do believe that China is crashing. Foreign investors and companies are pulling out in record numbers * public sector employees taking 30% salary cuts Makes me think there will be a massive public unrest and Chinese government will likely collapse soon. What do people think?
- 01100011 4y ago
  China is at risk of following Japan into stagnation. It is especially likely given the massive wave of manufacturing repatriation going on now. If China loses its position as the world's manufacturer, it will have to rely on its untested military strength to obtain resources to appease its restless population. Interesting times indeed.
  - chii 4y ago
    > China loses its position as the world's manufacturer they will not because the reason japan (and the US) lost theirs is that china was cheap. Where are you going to get this type of labour - skilled but cheap - other than china, in the next 10-30 years? Southeastern asian countries could make up some of the amount, but if they could do it today, they would've dominated already! The repatriation of manufacturing is political propaganda - it won't work economically, as consumers' preferences is overwhelmingly for cheap goods, not expensive patriotism.
Erlangen 4y ago
The censoring is so horrible that Chinese are using other country's name to substitute China. For example, there is a question in Zhihu, "Will China become the next technological powerhouse?". The answer is talking about Russia literally, but it's about China. (Below is the answer translated by deepl). I don't want to talk about China, I want to talk about Russia. Can Russia become the next technological powerhouse? Of course not. Because the ceiling of Russian intelligence or wisdom is Putin. There is no one in Russia who can claim to be more intelligent than Putin. Russia can do without anyone, but not without Putin. Although we do not know whether Putin has any relevant qualifications or experience in the industry, all Russian businesses and professions depend on Putin's guidance and must hold up Putin's ideas and banners, otherwise they will not be able to move forward. Putin is the ceiling of Russia. How can a country with a ceiling become a technological powerhouse? Look at the United States. Who dares to direct the work of Musk, whether Trump or Biden? Who dares to direct the business strategies of Apple and Google? I find that in the US, it seems that anyone can say they are smarter than the president, it seems that anyone can say they are smarter than the president. The technology companies in the US seem to be able to run smoothly without the guidance of Biden's ideas, and they seem to be able to develop technology without raising the banner of Biden's ideas, and they seem to be doing quite well. I find that the US is a country that has no ceiling in terms of intelligence or ingenuity, and that is always improving. Only such a country can become a technological powerhouse.
- boppo1 4y ago
  Do you mean the author is not talking about Putin but about Xi and that this is veiled criticism?
- bigcat12345678 4y ago
  Links please? I'll have to keep this in my archive for funniest workaround of censorship...
  - ganyu 4y ago
    Somewhere under this thread: https://www.zhihu.com/question/307148675 https://www.zhihu.com/question/307148675 Remember to ORDER BY time DESC
CoastalCoder 4y ago
The linked story kind of buries the context info: > Nomura said the refusal to pay mortgages stems from the widespread practice in China of selling homes before they’re built. Funds from presales are kept in escrow accounts to use for construction. But confidence that projects will be completed has weakened as developers’ cash woes intensified. > “Inappropriate usage of presale proceeds and the lack of adequate supervision of escrow accounts by local regulators and banks are likely associated with these mortgage suspension cases,” Zerlina Zeng, a senior analyst at CreditSights, wrote in a note.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- ganyu 4y ago
  Short (?) intro for those who don't know how it works in CN: 1. Local govts are in heavy debt and sell land to pay back their debt. 2. Real estate corps pay a hell lot of money (don't care where they get them) to purchase a land ownership (for 70 years max) from the govt. 3. Before construction even begins, the real estate corps start selling the houses to citizens. 4. Citizens pay up to 40% of the total price on their own, and ask the bank to lend them the rest of the 60% and get it paid back in the NEXT 30 YEARS (often paying as much as twice as the original price). 5. The bank gives 60% directly to the real estate corp. So in fact the citizen IS OWING MONEY TO THE BANK, and not to the estate corp. 6. Often, the real estate corp uses this money to pay back previous loans, or use this money to purchase more land from the local govt. So current (future) constructions pretty much depends on whether this Ponzi scheme could continue. 7. With the money earned from selling the land, the local govt could pay back the loan and ask for more, in order to build more infrastructure so as to pull up estate prices, from which it can earn more by selling more land. 8. ...until no typical citizen will be able to afford it.
  - sbierwagen 4y ago
    >get it paid back in the NEXT 30 YEARS Why emphasize that? 30 year mortgages are common in the US. At current rates of 5.5%, the total paid in interest will be bigger than the original loan. Of course, most US mortgages are taken out on housing units that actually exist.
pessimizer 4y ago
Sounds like the government caused this boycott by trying to rein in the exact activity that the boycotts are protesting. If they're censoring it, it's probably because they're trying to soften the effect on overextended banks. If the government hadn't insisted on functioning in the first place, the mortgage holders would still be in ignorant bliss. If China could afford to damage these banks (or if the people who run them fail to have the right connections and attitude), it seems like it would actually benefit the government to publicize these boycotts as further support for the crackdown. In the US, we'd just call the papers and get them to all run stories about a new trend among right-wing conspiracy theorists to stop paying their mortgages, relate them somehow to tax protesters and sovereign citizens, call them freeloaders, and insist that the figures being spread around about the number of people involved are probably from covert Russian sources. edit: I mean, after that we'd start censoring, demonetizing, think-tank fact-checking and downranking, but only after accusing everyone involved of being a terrorist.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
spywaregorilla 4y ago
The slow motion train wreck of evergrande continues at its glacial pace
whycombinetor 4y ago
The US mortgage delinquency rate was 2.13% in Q1 2022 ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS ). It was 4% in 2016, 3% in 2018. Why should an observer/investor be worried that "Non-performing loans [...] could reach as much as [...] 1.4% of the outstanding mortgage balance"?
- ailun 4y ago
  The situation is a bit different. It's common in China to pay for unfinished apartments. So the bank has nothing to foreclose on, and the property development company becomes even less likely to finish the property. The fear is that more people will protest by stopping payment in a downward spiral.
- nonethewiser 4y ago
  What are you trying to say here?
- HWR_14 4y ago
  Your numbers don't measure the same thing. Non-performing is a subset of delinquent, meaning likely to end in foreclosure. If you don't pay your mortgage, you go to delinquent and then a few months later to non-performing.
  - whycombinetor 4y ago
    Thank you - indeed I should be comparing against https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QBPLNTLNNCUR https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QBPLNTLNNCUR which is only 0.8%.
kornhole 4y ago
What if a debt rebellion was also happening in the US, but few of us knew it was happening? https://debtcollective.org/ https://debtcollective.org/ https://www.orbooks.com/catalog/creditocracy/ https://www.orbooks.com/catalog/creditocracy/
autokad 4y ago
I first heard this story from sources that were not so friendly to China, so I didn't put a lot of credence into the sources, but now its coming from bloomberg. I hope the people ultimately get the houses they paid for. What a terrible thing it would be to put 20-40% down for a home and to never have it delivered. I would assume there is going to be some sort of bailout?
- nonethewiser 4y ago
  > I first heard this story from sources that were not so friendly to China, so I didn't put a lot of credence into the sources, but now its coming from bloomberg. You should reexamine your assumptions about these sources. Sounds like they deserve credit for reporting it earlier.
  - autokad 4y ago
    sorry, I should have said earlier, but I didnt want to get in a rabbit hole. I pay attention to lots of sources, to see what they say, and sometimes they can end up in the penalty box. This particular source makes a lot of grandiose claims that I cannot verify, so trust--. I don't completely discount them but my baysean trust for them was lower.
- strawhatguy 4y ago
  The problem’s fairly serious. As I understand it, real estate is really the only form of investment open to the Chinese people, and often, the property is bought and sold under the ‘greater fool theory’: no one actually lives in these buildings. Many don’t have working utilities. It is, (or was) an appreciating asset, handed from one to another until you can actually buy a livable place, or just make a ton of money off of, or Use it to buy foreign property, ie something more real. So when building stopped altogether, due to government crackdown of developer loans, there aren’t any new entrants, and no greater fool to buy the worthless property, a lot of wealth might disappear in China. It’s like US 2008, but much worse. Or perhaps US 2023… who knows?
  - autokad 4y ago
jollybean 4y ago
We saw the same thing happen in Korea and Japan after their post war construction, they moved up the ladder, worked hard, but then when they got a taste of real success there was a huge amount of speculation. In the late 1980's Japanese real estate was the most valuable in the world, then it collapsed and they have not recovered. This is a big secular shift for China. All of the previous projections were wrong, just like those indicating Japan would take over the world in the 1980's. This is where China comes out of 'catch up' mode, and is now finding it's 'reality equilibrium' with the rest of the world.
- chii 4y ago
  > is now finding it's 'reality equilibrium' with the rest of the world. the one big difference with all the previous examples is that China is authoritarian, where as the others were all (at least on paper) democratic. China _could_ mandate the population to perform actions that the other tiger economies couldn't. I would be hesitant to assume that historical economic performance of japan and korea would give much indication to what future economic performance would be in china.
  - dendriti 4y ago
    You should read about the political history of South Korea before making the claim that Korea was democractic (yes you hedged with "on paper" but that is meaningless).
cfn 4y ago
"The Cyberspace Administration of China didn’t immediately respond to a *faxed* request for comment."
lakomen 4y ago
I think someone is downvote stalking me, because I write things about their beloved USA they don't like. But I'll write this: whenever I read about China and censorship I just can't forget how the EU and UK are censoring Russian media. So when you're in a glasshouse don't throw stones. Always the hypocritical "look China bad us good". I'm so tired of the propaganda - an EU resident. Before you start judging a person for being dirty, make sure you're not dirty yourself.
- nsv 4y ago
  Censorship should be criticized in all forms. Two wrongs don't make a right. It's not a dichotomy.
- mint2 4y ago
  Censoring the media of a state that literally is in a proxy war with you and essentially has been since Putin came to power, although the west didn’t realize what was happening until recently, seems reasonable. If someone was stealing and breaking stuff every time they came over to your house, you wouldn’t let them in anymore either. Utter unrestricted access to all from everywhere is a odd notion. Is it also somehow hypocritical to censor isis propaganda?
- exceptione 4y ago
  That is because you mistake Russian media for free and truth seeking media. You probably missed the closing down of many news agencies in the past years (that have seen a growing repression from Putin), and perhaps you missed the exodus of journalists and shutdown of the last independent media from Russia. The only thing you can get is the propaganda from the Kremlin. That propaganda is the crucial part of the Russian warfare. It functions to sow doubt about the truth. It is instrumental to get people to believe that Ukraine downed MH17. If Russia commits war crimes, its media start to spout different explanations, often mutually exclusive ones. Lies, damned lies, stupid lies, but it takes a lot of effort to deconstruct even the most plainly stupid ones of them. The effect is that you see a variety of nonsense, which makes you think about it as it sows confusion. This is known as the Firehose of Falsehoods. You are not sure anymore, some of your friends might buy one of the lies, while another one might stick better with you because it fits your beliefs better. This has nothing to do with understanding the truth. You cannot compare our free press to the russian media. I am very critical about our media, also because they seem to be ignorant about the dynamics of our media which the Kremlin perfectly knows to exploit. One of the pitfalls we have been observing is the one of False Balance, where you present the statements of one side as is, although it is complete garbage. Deconstructing false statements takes time, knowledge and a deep understanding of the context of events. Now look at the financial incentives and you see why we have got a huge problem in our western societies that rely on commercial entities to provide our news. The bad news is: Firehose of Falsehoods is extremely effective! Look at Trump and his relationships with truth. He gives a new meaning to it. Now you might think you are smart and special, so propaganda has no effect on you. Just like everyone else thinks. It is a poison, there is no reason to drink it.

Which means that this GitHub repo will soon go down. China has enormous leverage both on GitHub and especially on Microsoft.

bigcat12345678 4y ago
I am betting $100 that the repo will stay on.

fuckcensorship 4y ago

https://archive.ph/6fC1Q https://archive.ph/6fC1Q

Animats 4y ago
Better coverage in South China Morning Post.[1] [1] https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3185326/china-facing-more-economic-woes-ahead-gdp-release-mortgage https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3185326/c...
- neonate 4y ago
  https://archive.ph/GFPyG https://archive.ph/GFPyG

toinewx 4y ago

the github repo mentionned in the article (16k stars): https://github.com/WeNeedHome/SummaryOfLoanSuspension https://github.com/WeNeedHome/SummaryOfLoanSuspension

schleck8 4y ago
> Have faith in the party and the government. The party and the government will definitely give the people a satisfactory explanation, here is only for statistics, do not have excessive remarks! Then a link to a Mao speech. Weird
- elteto 4y ago
  They have to remove the risk of being labeled anti-party or dissidents. They do this by appealing to the ideology, at least superficially. Of course, this is a double edge play. Notice how the message boils down to “the party is right! It’s probably the fault of some dark, greedy figure(s) somewhere!”. But by absolving the government from ever being wrong you remove the possibility of them ever improving and fixing themselves. So someone(s) get sent to jail, others are demoted, and everything is swept unde the rug, but the structural problems remain and will appear again and again.
  - refurb 4y ago
    All problems in China are due to reactionary elements that are trying to overthrow the Party! And since the Party represents all Chinese, these elements are clearly attacking the Chinese people themselves so the only solution is to rally around the Party and help it solve the problem! /s
- mensetmanusman 4y ago
  The protesting citizens do this as a plea for help from the national government. They know that the true believers in the national government need to be kowtowed to. It is a risk to your life to protest the national government, but the national government allows protest to local governments as a means to reduce steam buildup. This results in over the top worship of Mao during local government protests as a hedge, because it creates a potential photo op where the local government is tearing down praise to Mao.
  - TMWNN 4y ago
    >The protesting citizens do this as a plea for help from the national government. They know that the true believers in the national government need to be kowtowed to. Could the plea for help from the national government be sincere? My understanding is that in early Soviet history, many people were sure that if Lenin/Stalin knew about the awful things local commissars were doing, the great leader would surely order such acts to stop. Obviously by the Brezhnev/Andropov years very, very few people would be so gullible as to believe such, and I suppose that it's awfully late in the history of the PRC and CCP to expect otherwise of the Chinese, but the thought at least came to mind. Another way to interpret this would be a (much, much more serious) counterpart, in the US and the West, during the past half decade of the de facto necessity in most parts of online discourse of prefixing anything that is not left of center-adherent with "I hate Trump, but".

m3kw9 4y ago

They can’t block GitHub because a lot of chinese tech firms depend on it. That is something very hard to develop locally because the entire world can contribute

vkou 4y ago
They can't block GitHub, but all it takes is one phone call to Redmond, and their problem will go away. Microsoft has no issue with getting rid of politically problematic repos. https://www.technadu.com/github-removes-protest-organizing-app-spain/83581/ https://www.technadu.com/github-removes-protest-organizing-a... - when Microsoft won't respect the right to protest in Spain, they won't give two figs about that same right in China. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en/article/8xe3v5/github-medium-twitter-delete-database-of-ice-agents https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en/article/8xe... - for another example, this time in the US.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- ganyu 4y ago
  What I can tell you is that GitHub is barely accessible in Mainland.
- sofixa 4y ago
  If you can't see how the two examples you cite are problematic, i don't know what to tell you. There's a difference between protest and sedition, and the Catalan independence movement went full in on treason. The second is doxxy, so it is understandable to an extent.
  - vkou 4y ago
    > the Catalan independence movement went full in on treason There's a few hundred million mainlanders, and the entire leadership of the CCP who feel the same way about Hong Kong. Perhaps Madrid and Beijing should compare notes?

helge9210 4y ago

Let's assume, there is no censorship and anyone can join the boycott. What is the intended successful outcome of the boycott? If noone would do anything (no boycott), some customers would have to pay mortgage for apartments that won't be finished ever. With boycott, the blast radius will be bigger, possibly affecting the banking system. What options do authorities have?

thriftwy 4y ago
Go along with the law? People who boycott mortgages get their properties confiscated by court eventually, and if any developments suffer issues government should aid developers to ensure any paid customers get their property done.
- pessimizer 4y ago
  But the boycotts are rational, because even the Chinese government thinks that the developers are overextended and may fail. They seem to be taking the most careful, benign option.
  - thriftwy 4y ago
    Chinese government should offer hard guarantees that all properties would eventually be completed, and at the same time that bad lenders may lose theirs. In Russia it's quite common occurrence that a very late project by a failed developer is eventually completed and the lenders get their apartments at last, after regional government intervention. In China it should be even simpler as the money never leave the escrow account. I wonder if there are un-escrow provisions if developer fails to deliver - in theory there should be no risk at all.
    - lazide 4y ago
      Why should they?
      - thriftwy 4y ago

TheMagicHorsey 4y ago

I know there are enormous profits to be made in China, but I wonder if American investors ever think to themselves ... by investing in this place I am strengthening a regime that ultimately is the enemy of my values.

Jaygles 4y ago
Merchants have no country https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Jefferson/03-07-02-0167 https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Jefferson/03-07-02-0...
vkou 4y ago
China is not at all incompatible with those values. And even if it were, that wouldn't be an issue - business interests on the whole have consistently been a strong ally of fascism and authoritarianism.
- throwaway4aday 4y ago
  The current Chinese government certainly is.
  - vkou 4y ago
    Why? It keeps order, it keeps the proles from getting uppity, and it's not much in the business of wealth redistribution (unlike it's liberal democracy counterparts on the other side of the world). Likewise, business as a whole in the US (and elsewhere) has no issue supporting the more authoritarian and repressive of the two political parties. They prefer it, in fact, because of what it does for them in limiting worker and consumer rights. When you're in the upper class of society, most of the repressive rules don't personally apply to you.
    - throwaway4aday 4y ago
      And yet Chinese citizens of all walks of life have been immigrating to my humble neck of the woods for the past decade (and they're welcome to, everyone I've met is super nice and grateful to be here) while I've heard of 0 people moving from my locale to China, I wonder why that is.

marianatom 4y ago

I was one of those people that thought China would never collapse due to its iron grip on economy and population. But look at recent activities * Chinese GDP shrinks to 0.4% in Q2 2022. Which is still suspicious because Shanghai economic activities declined -40%, and real estate overall activities dropped -30% * Massive mortgage boycott. Also public protests against lost deposits and unable to access bank is being aired out in Chinese social media. Also property bond crash spreading * The 1 billion people data leak has some experts analyzing the data and figuring that the Chinese population is already in decline, and only at 1.2B currently. Which means the population is going to half its size sooner than 2100 * Chinese firms are still selling Russia good its military needs https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-firms-are-selling-russia-goods-its-military-needs-to-keep-fighting-in-ukraine-11657877403 https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-firms-are-selling-russi..., incurring the wraths of normal folks in Europe and other allied countries. * Zero covid practice still going on, with tons of public discontent. There are videos of the people waiting in line to test in the pouring rain and huge wind! * Zeihan gaining more popularity, which implies that people do believe that China is crashing. Foreign investors and companies are pulling out in record numbers * public sector employees taking 30% salary cuts Makes me think there will be a massive public unrest and Chinese government will likely collapse soon. What do people think?

01100011 4y ago
China is at risk of following Japan into stagnation. It is especially likely given the massive wave of manufacturing repatriation going on now. If China loses its position as the world's manufacturer, it will have to rely on its untested military strength to obtain resources to appease its restless population. Interesting times indeed.
- chii 4y ago
  > China loses its position as the world's manufacturer they will not because the reason japan (and the US) lost theirs is that china was cheap. Where are you going to get this type of labour - skilled but cheap - other than china, in the next 10-30 years? Southeastern asian countries could make up some of the amount, but if they could do it today, they would've dominated already! The repatriation of manufacturing is political propaganda - it won't work economically, as consumers' preferences is overwhelmingly for cheap goods, not expensive patriotism.

Erlangen 4y ago

The censoring is so horrible that Chinese are using other country's name to substitute China. For example, there is a question in Zhihu, "Will China become the next technological powerhouse?". The answer is talking about Russia literally, but it's about China. (Below is the answer translated by deepl). I don't want to talk about China, I want to talk about Russia. Can Russia become the next technological powerhouse? Of course not. Because the ceiling of Russian intelligence or wisdom is Putin. There is no one in Russia who can claim to be more intelligent than Putin. Russia can do without anyone, but not without Putin. Although we do not know whether Putin has any relevant qualifications or experience in the industry, all Russian businesses and professions depend on Putin's guidance and must hold up Putin's ideas and banners, otherwise they will not be able to move forward. Putin is the ceiling of Russia. How can a country with a ceiling become a technological powerhouse? Look at the United States. Who dares to direct the work of Musk, whether Trump or Biden? Who dares to direct the business strategies of Apple and Google? I find that in the US, it seems that anyone can say they are smarter than the president, it seems that anyone can say they are smarter than the president. The technology companies in the US seem to be able to run smoothly without the guidance of Biden's ideas, and they seem to be able to develop technology without raising the banner of Biden's ideas, and they seem to be doing quite well. I find that the US is a country that has no ceiling in terms of intelligence or ingenuity, and that is always improving. Only such a country can become a technological powerhouse.

boppo1 4y ago
Do you mean the author is not talking about Putin but about Xi and that this is veiled criticism?
bigcat12345678 4y ago
Links please? I'll have to keep this in my archive for funniest workaround of censorship...
- ganyu 4y ago
  Somewhere under this thread: https://www.zhihu.com/question/307148675 https://www.zhihu.com/question/307148675 Remember to ORDER BY time DESC

CoastalCoder 4y ago

The linked story kind of buries the context info: > Nomura said the refusal to pay mortgages stems from the widespread practice in China of selling homes before they’re built. Funds from presales are kept in escrow accounts to use for construction. But confidence that projects will be completed has weakened as developers’ cash woes intensified. > “Inappropriate usage of presale proceeds and the lack of adequate supervision of escrow accounts by local regulators and banks are likely associated with these mortgage suspension cases,” Zerlina Zeng, a senior analyst at CreditSights, wrote in a note.

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ganyu 4y ago
Short (?) intro for those who don't know how it works in CN: 1. Local govts are in heavy debt and sell land to pay back their debt. 2. Real estate corps pay a hell lot of money (don't care where they get them) to purchase a land ownership (for 70 years max) from the govt. 3. Before construction even begins, the real estate corps start selling the houses to citizens. 4. Citizens pay up to 40% of the total price on their own, and ask the bank to lend them the rest of the 60% and get it paid back in the NEXT 30 YEARS (often paying as much as twice as the original price). 5. The bank gives 60% directly to the real estate corp. So in fact the citizen IS OWING MONEY TO THE BANK, and not to the estate corp. 6. Often, the real estate corp uses this money to pay back previous loans, or use this money to purchase more land from the local govt. So current (future) constructions pretty much depends on whether this Ponzi scheme could continue. 7. With the money earned from selling the land, the local govt could pay back the loan and ask for more, in order to build more infrastructure so as to pull up estate prices, from which it can earn more by selling more land. 8. ...until no typical citizen will be able to afford it.
- sbierwagen 4y ago
  >get it paid back in the NEXT 30 YEARS Why emphasize that? 30 year mortgages are common in the US. At current rates of 5.5%, the total paid in interest will be bigger than the original loan. Of course, most US mortgages are taken out on housing units that actually exist.

pessimizer 4y ago

Sounds like the government caused this boycott by trying to rein in the exact activity that the boycotts are protesting. If they're censoring it, it's probably because they're trying to soften the effect on overextended banks. If the government hadn't insisted on functioning in the first place, the mortgage holders would still be in ignorant bliss. If China could afford to damage these banks (or if the people who run them fail to have the right connections and attitude), it seems like it would actually benefit the government to publicize these boycotts as further support for the crackdown. In the US, we'd just call the papers and get them to all run stories about a new trend among right-wing conspiracy theorists to stop paying their mortgages, relate them somehow to tax protesters and sovereign citizens, call them freeloaders, and insist that the figures being spread around about the number of people involved are probably from covert Russian sources. edit: I mean, after that we'd start censoring, demonetizing, think-tank fact-checking and downranking, but only after accusing everyone involved of being a terrorist.

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spywaregorilla 4y ago

The slow motion train wreck of evergrande continues at its glacial pace

whycombinetor 4y ago

The US mortgage delinquency rate was 2.13% in Q1 2022 ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS ). It was 4% in 2016, 3% in 2018. Why should an observer/investor be worried that "Non-performing loans [...] could reach as much as [...] 1.4% of the outstanding mortgage balance"?

ailun 4y ago
The situation is a bit different. It's common in China to pay for unfinished apartments. So the bank has nothing to foreclose on, and the property development company becomes even less likely to finish the property. The fear is that more people will protest by stopping payment in a downward spiral.
nonethewiser 4y ago
What are you trying to say here?
HWR_14 4y ago
Your numbers don't measure the same thing. Non-performing is a subset of delinquent, meaning likely to end in foreclosure. If you don't pay your mortgage, you go to delinquent and then a few months later to non-performing.
- whycombinetor 4y ago
  Thank you - indeed I should be comparing against https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QBPLNTLNNCUR https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QBPLNTLNNCUR which is only 0.8%.

kornhole 4y ago

What if a debt rebellion was also happening in the US, but few of us knew it was happening? https://debtcollective.org/ https://debtcollective.org/ https://www.orbooks.com/catalog/creditocracy/ https://www.orbooks.com/catalog/creditocracy/

autokad 4y ago

I first heard this story from sources that were not so friendly to China, so I didn't put a lot of credence into the sources, but now its coming from bloomberg. I hope the people ultimately get the houses they paid for. What a terrible thing it would be to put 20-40% down for a home and to never have it delivered. I would assume there is going to be some sort of bailout?

nonethewiser 4y ago
> I first heard this story from sources that were not so friendly to China, so I didn't put a lot of credence into the sources, but now its coming from bloomberg. You should reexamine your assumptions about these sources. Sounds like they deserve credit for reporting it earlier.
- autokad 4y ago
  sorry, I should have said earlier, but I didnt want to get in a rabbit hole. I pay attention to lots of sources, to see what they say, and sometimes they can end up in the penalty box. This particular source makes a lot of grandiose claims that I cannot verify, so trust--. I don't completely discount them but my baysean trust for them was lower.
strawhatguy 4y ago
The problem’s fairly serious. As I understand it, real estate is really the only form of investment open to the Chinese people, and often, the property is bought and sold under the ‘greater fool theory’: no one actually lives in these buildings. Many don’t have working utilities. It is, (or was) an appreciating asset, handed from one to another until you can actually buy a livable place, or just make a ton of money off of, or Use it to buy foreign property, ie something more real. So when building stopped altogether, due to government crackdown of developer loans, there aren’t any new entrants, and no greater fool to buy the worthless property, a lot of wealth might disappear in China. It’s like US 2008, but much worse. Or perhaps US 2023… who knows?
- autokad 4y ago

jollybean 4y ago

We saw the same thing happen in Korea and Japan after their post war construction, they moved up the ladder, worked hard, but then when they got a taste of real success there was a huge amount of speculation. In the late 1980's Japanese real estate was the most valuable in the world, then it collapsed and they have not recovered. This is a big secular shift for China. All of the previous projections were wrong, just like those indicating Japan would take over the world in the 1980's. This is where China comes out of 'catch up' mode, and is now finding it's 'reality equilibrium' with the rest of the world.

chii 4y ago
> is now finding it's 'reality equilibrium' with the rest of the world. the one big difference with all the previous examples is that China is authoritarian, where as the others were all (at least on paper) democratic. China _could_ mandate the population to perform actions that the other tiger economies couldn't. I would be hesitant to assume that historical economic performance of japan and korea would give much indication to what future economic performance would be in china.
- dendriti 4y ago
  You should read about the political history of South Korea before making the claim that Korea was democractic (yes you hedged with "on paper" but that is meaningless).

cfn 4y ago

"The Cyberspace Administration of China didn’t immediately respond to a *faxed* request for comment."

lakomen 4y ago

I think someone is downvote stalking me, because I write things about their beloved USA they don't like. But I'll write this: whenever I read about China and censorship I just can't forget how the EU and UK are censoring Russian media. So when you're in a glasshouse don't throw stones. Always the hypocritical "look China bad us good". I'm so tired of the propaganda - an EU resident. Before you start judging a person for being dirty, make sure you're not dirty yourself.

nsv 4y ago
Censorship should be criticized in all forms. Two wrongs don't make a right. It's not a dichotomy.
mint2 4y ago
Censoring the media of a state that literally is in a proxy war with you and essentially has been since Putin came to power, although the west didn’t realize what was happening until recently, seems reasonable. If someone was stealing and breaking stuff every time they came over to your house, you wouldn’t let them in anymore either. Utter unrestricted access to all from everywhere is a odd notion. Is it also somehow hypocritical to censor isis propaganda?
exceptione 4y ago
That is because you mistake Russian media for free and truth seeking media. You probably missed the closing down of many news agencies in the past years (that have seen a growing repression from Putin), and perhaps you missed the exodus of journalists and shutdown of the last independent media from Russia. The only thing you can get is the propaganda from the Kremlin. That propaganda is the crucial part of the Russian warfare. It functions to sow doubt about the truth. It is instrumental to get people to believe that Ukraine downed MH17. If Russia commits war crimes, its media start to spout different explanations, often mutually exclusive ones. Lies, damned lies, stupid lies, but it takes a lot of effort to deconstruct even the most plainly stupid ones of them. The effect is that you see a variety of nonsense, which makes you think about it as it sows confusion. This is known as the Firehose of Falsehoods. You are not sure anymore, some of your friends might buy one of the lies, while another one might stick better with you because it fits your beliefs better. This has nothing to do with understanding the truth. You cannot compare our free press to the russian media. I am very critical about our media, also because they seem to be ignorant about the dynamics of our media which the Kremlin perfectly knows to exploit. One of the pitfalls we have been observing is the one of False Balance, where you present the statements of one side as is, although it is complete garbage. Deconstructing false statements takes time, knowledge and a deep understanding of the context of events. Now look at the financial incentives and you see why we have got a huge problem in our western societies that rely on commercial entities to provide our news. The bad news is: Firehose of Falsehoods is extremely effective! Look at Trump and his relationships with truth. He gives a new meaning to it. Now you might think you are smart and special, so propaganda has no effect on you. Just like everyone else thinks. It is a poison, there is no reason to drink it.