11 ms·

How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

190 points by fawce 6y ago

bookofjoe 6y ago
https://archive.is/OHRXU https://archive.is/OHRXU
- sp332 6y ago
  This gives me a Cloudflare DNS resolution error.
  - bathtub365 6y ago
    Works on my machine
  - woadwarrior01 6y ago
    Seems to be working for me.
  - kitotik 6y ago
    I get a cloudflare http 403.
  - viceroyalbean 6y ago
    Archive.is is inaccessible via Cloudlfare DNS, see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19828317 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19828317
    - sp332 6y ago
      I was about to say "I don't use Cloudflare DNS" but eventually I remembered that Firefox's DoH defaults to that. Thanks. Options -> Network Settings -> DoH provider
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - christefano 6y ago
    The reason is explained by Cloudflare CEOin the top voted comment at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19828317 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19828317
  - zenexer 6y ago
    That’s because the owner of archive.is blocks DNS resolutions from Cloudflare DNS. They don’t actually use Cloudflare; rather, they have a grudge against Cloudflare, so they return an IP address belonging to Cloudflare when you attempt to resolve through 1.1.1.1. That makes it look as though it’s Cloudflare’s fault when it isn’t. tl;dr archive.is wants Cloudflare to implement ECS, Cloudflare refused due to privacy concerns, archive.is doesn’t allow queries from 1.1.1.1 to resolve correctly.
tyingq 6y ago
The mask guidance is confusing as well. I get they are trying to preserve masks for medical staff. But, they also say it's mainly spread by coughing, sneezing, and resulting spray of bodily fluids. Surely even a scarf around your face would have some benefit? Yes, I get that the virus is small enough to pass through, but some deflection is better than none.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- sonicggg 6y ago
  Something does not add up about the advice. Specially given that Eastern authorities encourage the use of makes by the general public. Which part of the World is better handling this pandemic?
  - bilbo0s 6y ago
    Masks should just be a given. If we consider a place like South Korea, or Singapore, the executive actions contrast wildly with the executive actions that our city, state, and federal governments have taken. If I'm not mistaken, in Singapore they even went so far as to distribute packs of masks to each and every family. I don't ask for that level of efficiency, but it does illustrate an example of effective executive action during times like these.
    - jplayer01 6y ago
      > I don't ask for that level of efficiency, Well, why the crap not? Why is the west so unbelievably bad at handling this epidemic? Why aren't we able to produce our own masks? These things are essential and it was all off-shored to China. Now the west is screwed while life goes on in Asia.
      - bilbo0s 6y ago
        Actually, we do produce masks. Right here in the US. We just didn't order up enough in the ramp up to prepare for the surge the way the government did in Singapore. As to the question of competence, well, I guess maybe I should demand the eastern level of competence out of my leaders. But what good does it do to demand something that you know from the outset your leaders are not capable of? We have the leaders we have. I can't change that right now. The only thing we can do collectively is to try to get the best we can out of them, realizing that it's very likely their best ain't gonna be anywhere near asia level efficiency. Maybe one of the good things to come out of this crisis will be a demand for higher quality stewards. Maybe we'll get much higher quality candidates at election time? But in all honesty, I kind of doubt it.
capableweb 6y ago
> As the coronavirus epidemic spread around the globe, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provided restrictive guidance on who should be tested, archived pages on its website show. While agencies in other countries were advising and conducting widespread testing, the CDC, charged with setting the U.S. standard for who should be tested for the virus, kept its criteria limited Well, "other countries" also did the same. Spain, for example, seems to be the 3rd country with most infected and I got pneumonia about 2 weeks ago. Called the agencies here but they still didn't want to test me, even with pneumonia! Still got a cough since then and they still won't test me. So, the US is not alone. And it does make a bit sense, I didn't require hospitalization, so makes sense they want to save the resources. But I feel like the article author could have done some better research.
- bilbo0s 6y ago
  Well, that's a good point. If you don't have the tests, you don't have the tests. I get that. But then just say, "Sorry guys, we can only test critical cases and emergency personnel right now because we don't have the tests." What's concerning is that it's possible to reach a point where a person presenting with pneumonia, is not a critical case.
  - vladvasiliu 6y ago
    For me it's been pretty clear that governments in many countries have been caught unprepared. Does it really surprise many people that often governments are wont to downplay such situations? It's pretty much the same story with the masks, which is a political scandal in France at the moment.
- rmetzler 6y ago
  Germany does the same. I’m under the impression that there is a big selection bias because I know a lot of friends who have symptoms but can’t get testing because they don’t fit the criteria. And the criteria is having contact with a known corona patient or traveled to a risk area.
  - 6y ago
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
look_lookatme 6y ago
I think a lot of people in medicine, science, economics, policy and the media think what's happening right now is their shining moment, but if you talk to people on the ground -- this is a catastrophe and no one has any clue what's happening and people see that and they are internalizing it. The experts are f* this up and it is going to have long term implications for already eroded public trust in institutions.
- CriticalCathed 6y ago
  Absolutely. One of the worst consequences that we may have to deal with at the end of this is that public trust will go down. In the beginning our leaders failed to act on the guidance of the scientific and medical communities -- almost two months wasted. And now, our leaders are flailing around implementing policy that is not based on reliable data or scientific evidence. They've both failed to react and then when they did react they are in many ways failing to act prudently. Take a look at this editorial written by John Ioannidis. Excerpt that is relevant, though the whole thing is a worthwhile read: >If COVID-19 is not as grave as it is depicted, high evidence standards are equally relevant. Exaggeration and over-reaction may seriously damage the reputation of science, public health, media, and policy makers. It may foster disbelief that will jeopardize the prospects of an appropriately strong response if and when a more major pandemic strikes in the future. [0] Quick BIO rip from wikipedia: >Ioannidis studies scientific research itself, especially in clinical medicine and the social sciences. He is one of the most-cited scientists in literature. His 2005 paper "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False" is the most downloaded paper in the Public Library of Science, and has the highest number of Mendeley readers across all science." >Ioannidis is a Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor of Statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences. He is director of the Stanford Prevention Research Center, and co-director, along with Steven N. Goodman, of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS). He is also the editor-in-chief of the European Journal of Clinical Investigation. He was chairman at the Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine as well as adjunct professor at Tufts University School of Medicine. [0] https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eci.13222 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eci.13222
nikhizzle 6y ago
My concern here is that bad decisions were made early on in the US, and there will be no accountability. What do mechanisms for accountability here look like? Will they be used? Edit: And more importantly how will we prevent theses same mistakes from happening again?
- rflrob 6y ago
  Congressional hearings are one big way to hold the executive branch publicly accountable. Then, there’s the election. My sense is that a lot of the bad decisions don’t necessarily rise to the level of negligence, so civil/criminal penalties are unlikely.
  - quietthrow 6y ago
    Are congressional hearing just a tame way of public shaming? Or is there more to it. I feel it’s just a slap on the wrist most of the time.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
davelacy 6y ago
CDC has there shortcomings, no doubt but let’s not forget who’s truly to blame for the mess we’re in now. The trump administration’s disbandment of federal institutions created to combat this and the ongoing denial of a serious problem have led to a collapsing economy and isolation of millions. Good article here for sure but let’s not pass the blame to the CDC. We know who to blame...
- tathougies 6y ago
  Evidence? CDC has more funding than ever. And it's a myth trump got rid of the pandemic team at NSC. They just renamed it the bioterrorism team after people left. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/17/instagram-posts/celebrities-are-sharing-misleading-post-about-trum/ https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/17/instagram-... https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/12/joy-behar/view-co-host-wrongly-says-trump-shut-down-37-globa/ https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/12/joy-behar/...
  - CriticalCathed 6y ago
    You are spreading misinformation yourself. Even your own link doesn't support exactly what you just said. "Renaming" is not what happened. Your link: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/17/instagram-posts/celebrities-are-sharing-misleading-post-about-trum/ https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/17/instagram-...
    - tathougies 6y ago
      > After Ziemer’s departure, the global health team was reorganized as part of an effort by then-National Security Adviser John Bolton From https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/dems-misconstrue-trump-budget-remarks/ https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/dems-misconstrue-trump-bud... > Morrison objected to claims that the office was “dissolved,” writing in the Post on March 16 that the administration “create[d] the counterproliferation and biodefense directorate, which was the result of consolidating three directorates into one, given the obvious overlap between arms control and nonproliferation, weapons of mass destruction terrorism, and global health and biodefense. It is this reorganization that critics have misconstrued or intentionally misrepresented.”
SkyMarshal 6y ago
I hope one thing that comes of this outbreak is that all nations develop the processes and capabilities to quickly stop the spread of outbreaks in general. COVID19 is worse than flu, but not as bad as it could have been. We could get hit with something worse in the future. Imagine a strain of Ebola that gestates asymptomatically longer, or another coronavirus with higher mortality rate. This outbreak is good preparation for that one. Anytime you’re dealing with a harmful exponential growth process like an outbreak, the best way to handle it is to overreact early, quickly and briefly. Kill it hard while it’s still small and easy to kill, or it will get out of control fast. Put everything on lockdown/shelter-in-place for a few weeks - [max(gestation period|time to develop and deploy test kits) + safety factor] - test extensively, isolate and treat the infected, stop the outbreak, and then return to normal. Outbreak stopped dead in its tracks, economic damage is minimized and mostly short-term. This is basically what South Korea did and they got their first COVID19 diagnosis the same day as the US: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BW https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testin... That needs to be become a social and political norm everywhere, not just the Asian countries that have faced a widespread outbreak before.
- JamesBarney 6y ago
  Yeah maybe it'll be in place for next time. But this looks to be about a once in a century event. It happened in 1917 and happening now. I doubt we'll handle it better in 2115.
  - mbreese 6y ago
    I don’t know about that. A lot of lessons were learned in the 1918 flu pandemic that were applied here. For example, I’ve seen the comparison between the Philadelphia and St Louis responses multiple times in how governments were reacting. I’m sure there will be lessons here too. The difference in response of between countries is one obvious comparison. But I think another lesson will be how the virus spread globally. With this virus, we have much more information about how the virus was able to spread globally so quickly.
Munky-Necan 6y ago
My colleagues are out of PPE and now using scarves because we are so under supplied. CDC guidelines were just changed to allow staff to be exposed to COVID patients without properly protecting themselves. I was talking with some physicians and providers when I said that I think this will be the Chernobyl like moment of our era: where the truth is hidden from people to prevent a panic paradoxically exacerbating the current crisis. Shockingly, almost all agreed with me.
- CriticalCathed 6y ago
  This is so completely blowing this crisis out of proportion. I am so confused by the tenor of the discourse on HN. I expected more from this place.
  - XorNot 6y ago
    This pandemic is potentially going to kill a lot more people then Chernobyl did. And permanently injure (via lung function damage) many more.
    - Munky-Necan 6y ago
      The common complications, of those initially hospitalized(note this limits our extrapolation for population), that were observed in Wuhan were ARDS, acute cardiac injury 7.2%, acute kidney injury 3.6% [1]. This is most likely analogous to having a mild heart attack(we need to read the EKG and labs here to elucidate the actual prognosis), which is still concerning because long term prognosis is usually poor. Acute kidney injury usually progresses to chronic kidney injury. On top of both of these you're more than correct that lung function will likely decrease. This virus kills lung tissues and although we have cells that are there to heal lungs, SARS-CoV-2 tissue tropism is highest for these cells (ACE2 receptors on type II pneumocytes). Dr. Facui is one of the most respected scientists in the medical field. He's either in the top ten or right around the top ten of the most referenced. He is the reason why HIV has killed only ~50 million people. I'm building his credibility because he has stated that he hopes we're over reacting to this [2-3]. 1)https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32031570/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32031570/ 2) https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/487639-fauci-if-it-looks-like-youre-overreacting-youre-probably-doing-the https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/487639-fauci-... 3) https://www.axios.com/fauci-coronavirus-overreaction-decc88f5-ab25-4c27-86d2-aff3acea583c.html https://www.axios.com/fauci-coronavirus-overreaction-decc88f...
quietthrow 6y ago
This whole corona virus episode has definitely shown one thing. US, under the current govt can’t execute. Despite claims Like “world best”, “most powerful in the world” and whatever else our leaders proclaim it’s all baseless “marketing”. as they say past performance is not a indicator of future performance in the same way we did quite well from 40s/50s onwards for a certain time and build an image based on substance what we had at the time but is now just gone. It’s all a house of cards run on decrepit systems.
- jmeister 6y ago
  The private industry, academia(atleast for STEM) are still worlds best, by a mile
jtms 6y ago
I have a box of n95 masks I bought a few years back while living in Singapore (there is an annual smoke “haze” there from neighboring countries burning forest to clear land for palm oil production). I tried to give them to a nurse to distribute to other medical staff, but they couldn’t use them because they are a year or so beyond the expiration. News to me that masks even have an expiration date.
- s0rce 6y ago
  Pretty much everything has an expiry date because the manufacturer has guaranteed its still effective up to that date. Doing that requires time and money. This doesn't mean the masks doesn't work after the expiry date (although it might be less effective) simply that the performance isn't guaranteed and most likely hasn't been tested sufficiently.
- dempseye 6y ago
  Ask them again in a week.
  - 1996 6y ago
    Or make the offer right now to health workers who've been it's perfectly fine to interact with covid patients without any mask. Perfection is the enemy of the good. The amount of medical waste is shocking - as if tools went from 100% effective 100% safe to 0% effective 100% at midnight. I suppose there is a strong cover-your-ass factor at play, that can only be overridden when they have some skin in the game (as in, risk being infected due to 0 mask)
  - dahart 6y ago
    It’s not likely to change in a week. U.S. hospitals are required by law to not use expired products.
- kps 6y ago
  “CDC/NIOSH believes the following products, despite being past their manufacturer-designated shelf life, should provide the expected level of protection… “3M 1860; 3M 1870; 3M 8210; 3M 9010; 3M 8000; Gerson 1730; Medline/Alpha Protech NON27501; Moldex 1512; Moldex 2201.” https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/release-stockpiled-N95.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/release-stockpiled...
magwa101 6y ago
Oh, data, that pesky thing. I go here, and observe rate of change (log) graphs. I ignore linear body counts, which all the headlines scream: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Italy is flattening and exponential growth becomes exponential decay.
- RobAtticus 6y ago
  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ Italy new cases did flatten to 3500-4000 per day for a few days this past week, but they have since resumed increasing on a daily basis. So I don't think they are out of the woods yet. It may not be exponential, but it is very much super-linear
DoreenMichele 6y ago
From what I gather, the CDC is also largely sweeping the Hepatitis issue under the rug (which is something of a quiet epidemic, but certainly nothing on the scale of covid19). It disproportionately impacts the homeless. The problem appears to have started in San Diego and spread outward from there. I'm aware of the issue because a reporter from San Diego contacted me and interviewed me via email in September 2017 because I run the San Diego Homeless Survival Guide.* Another reporter contacted me when it reached Los Angeles. I received an email last September from something I'm subscribed to indicating it had reached Washington state, though my county was not listed. On a per capita basis, the small town I live in has a worse homeless problem than the big cities that routinely make the news for it. If I had any real power, I would be trying to come up with the means to do a free hygiene event for the homeless and give away hand sanitizer and free haircuts and Hepatitis vaccines, something I had on my mind before covid19 became a thing. I've seen relatively little in the press about it. I have seen at least one article about the resurgence of "Medieval diseases." To my mind, our homeless policies are actively creating a health hazard for the entire nation. CDC policy looks to me like part of the problem. They seem to be sitting on the data about the spread of hepatitis and intentionally not making an effort to publicize it. I imagine it will get swept under the rug entirely in the face of covid19. This seems to me like a good means to compound our problems. I have no idea what do about it. * https://sandiegohomelesssurvivalguide.blogspot.com/2017/09/for-record.html https://sandiegohomelesssurvivalguide.blogspot.com/2017/09/f...
Symmetry 6y ago
Rather than just blaming the CDC, I think the real problem here has been the lack of coordination between the CDC and FDA? CDC: Our test is going to be so much better than the WHO's, we'll test for SARS-CoV-2 in two samples and also test for other simultaneous infections in this third part! FDA: Approved Hospitals: Hey, we can't get that third part to work! CDC: That's ok, just use the first two parts, that's all you really need to diagnose COVID-19. Though I'm sad I won't get any data on simultaneous infections, apparently that was a problem in Northeast China and we want to figure that out for our guidelines. FDA: Only running the first two tests is not what we approved! Verboten! * Laboratory: Let's develop our own SARS-CoV-2 test! FDA: Sure, just make sure to fill out these forms, be sure to send them to us by mail rather than email, and oh, make sure to test against the original SARS to make sure your test doesn't give a false SARS-CoV-2 reading if they patient just has that. Laboratory: Uh, sure. Hey, CDC, can I have a sample of SARS to test against? CDC: NO WHAT ARE YOU CRAZY I'M NOT GIVING YOU THAT! THAT'S SUPER DEADLY!
- ejstronge 6y ago
  > FDA: Sure, just make sure to fill out these forms, be sure to send them to us by mail rather than email, and oh, make sure to test against the original SARS to make sure your test doesn't give a false SARS-CoV-19 reading if they patient just has that. > Laboratory: Uh, sure. Hey, CDC, can I have a sample of SARS to test against? I've been trying to stay on top of the testing saga, but it's been hard with all the daily changes. Do you have news links that describe this hypothetical exchange taking place? EDIT: in particular, the part around the FDA requiring testing against a sample of SARS.
  - Symmetry 6y ago
    From here: >The officials at the FDA instructed him to test his test against the MERS and SARS viruses, which are also coronaviruses. It wasn’t a terrible idea, Greninger thought. Why not develop a test that catches all these deadly coronaviruses all at once? It did seem strange, however, that the FDA was asking for this in an emergency use application: by this point, COVID-19 cases had appeared in six states. (The FDA did not respond to a list of questions about the process.) >Still, Greninger complied. He called the CDC to inquire about getting some genetic material from a sample of SARS. The CDC, Greninger says, politely turned him down: the genetic material of the extremely contagious and deadly SARS virus was highly restricted. https://www.gq.com/story/inside-americas-coronavirus-testing-crisis https://www.gq.com/story/inside-americas-coronavirus-testing...
susanhi 6y ago
We have 330 million people in US. China has ramped their mask production to 200 million masks a day. Had US government had the foresight and common sense to contract mask manufacturers to even produce half of what China is producing - let’s say 100 million masks, we could have had enough for everyone to have a mask in 3-4 days. Universal masks for everyone (not only health care workers) together with hygiene protocol should be the way to “flatten the curve”. This would at the very least inhibit spread by those who have coronavirus but don’t know it yet (asymptomatic). But instead, we’re having these mass shelter in place orders that are destroying our economy, killing businesses and destroying people’s livelihoods. And I still haven’t heard of massive government contracts to mask manufacturers at the scale needed to provide masks for everyone.
- true_religion 6y ago
  The problem is that the majority of masks manufactures are in China because that’s where the population regularly wears them for the simple flu. Understandably the Chinese government would be unwilling to contract their strategic supply of manufacturing out when they need it for themselves.
  - mygo 6y ago
    China offered us lower prices, and the lower prices were great. But right now China isn’t selling us those low priced masks. And we do not need China to produce masks. We know from basic economic theory that there are manufacturers who would either ramp up production or go into production if the demand increased. With China seemingly out of the US mask business for who knows how long there are also fewer available suppliers — another motivator. Domestic manufacturers should be happy to take our money — it’s simply a matter of timing. We knew of the mask shortage at least by January. I know this, because I was following the news around then, and went to the local stores and saw with my own eyes that they were out of stock. I could only get them at Home Depot. Not Walgreens, not Target, not Wal Mart. Had we been contracting manufacturers to produce masks starting then, we wouldn’t be experiencing as many shortages as we are today, assuming it doesn’t take 2 months for pre-existing manufacturers to ramp up production. The botched timing in ramping up domestic production in response to a known shortage is the biggest issue, not the fact that China hasn’t been taking new orders for going on 3 months.
mrdrozdov 6y ago
The actual title is: How the CDC’s Restrictive Testing Guidelines Hid the Coronavirus Epidemic This is very different from guidelines in general. Encouraging people to avoid large crowds, wash their hands and wipe surfaces, and possibly self-quarantine could have made a huge impact earlier on. Instead, people kept going to bars, concerts, and traveling. A lot could have been done, and testing is only part of the story.
- dang 6y ago
  Yes, we've reverted the title now. Submitters: "Please use the original title, unless it is misleading or linkbait; don't editorialize." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html (Submitted title was "CDC Guidelines Hid the Coronavirus Epidemic")
  - mrdrozdov 6y ago
    Cheers.
asiachick 6y ago
I'm still trying to understand why Japan's numbers are so low. You can argue they aren't testing but if the infection rate is similar then the death rate should be similar was well regardless of testing or not. They aren't staying home. Restaurants, bars, and events are still open. Trains are still packed at rush hour. Festivals are still happening. They're planning on starting school in April. I can only see a few possibilities (1) the numbers are false and Japan's death rate is going to accelerate (2) the numbers are true but it's still coming (3) Something about Japanese culture already limits the spread. I don't believe this one. Japanese might wear masks but not all of them wear masks and they are not N95 masks. Japanese are also known to go to work sick, go to cafes sick, visit friends and family sick. Places are crowded. Open and over crowded offices everywhere. (4) Something about Japanese genetics makes them less likely to have a strong reaction I have no idea how to tell which of those it is except to see where they are in a few weeks. If the death rate rises it was (1) or (2). If not then it must be (3) or (4)? Here's their latest graph. The 2 shallow lines at the bottom are Singapore (bottom) and Japan (2nd from bottom). The rest are Italy, Spain, Germany, France going left to right at the top. https://rpr.c.yimg.jp/im_sigg.R1UwQuI2tgBhV1fzJ5o7A---x799-n1/amd/20200322-00169120-roupeiro-001-27-view.jpg https://rpr.c.yimg.jp/im_sigg.R1UwQuI2tgBhV1fzJ5o7A---x799-n...
- austinnoone 6y ago
  Could it be iodine in their diet from seaweed?
- gkanai 6y ago
  I am also confused by Japan's situation. The one thing that I don't think Japan can fake is the death rate. As long as the death rate does not significantly rise, somehow Japan is keeping control of the virus without the significant changes to life that were necessary in other places.
- catalogia 6y ago
  > "I don't believe this one. Japanese might wear masks but not all of them wear masks and they are not N95 masks." Substandard masks are better than no masks, and many people wearing masks is better than few people wearing masks. These are not "all or nothing" matters.
jsight 6y ago
Is anyone else bothered by how many of these articles are behind paywalls?
neonate 6y ago
https://archive.md/tp9HA https://archive.md/tp9HA
dang 6y ago
Related article: https://thedispatch.com/p/timeline-the-regulationsand-regulatorsthat https://thedispatch.com/p/timeline-the-regulationsand-regula... (via https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22656060 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22656060 but no comments there)
bionhoward 6y ago
Metagenomics would solve these issues. Of course we have these problems when a new disease comes along if we have to invent new diagnostics for it. Metagenomics isn’t new, you just sequence the everything and look to see what DNA/RNA is in the environment. That’s orders of magnitude more data because it doesn’t require labels, you don’t need to know in advance what you’re looking for... The devices to do this are getting cheaper faster than Moore’s law. Just takes the will to set up the programs
AndrewBissell 6y ago
In late January my wife and daughter visited Disneyland, and there were a handful of COVID-19 cases reported in SoCal around the same time. On the Sunday they were due to fly back, my daughter came down with a very strong cough (she said it was even "hurting her throat") and a high fever of around 102F. We had been following the outbreak in China and my wife called the CDC to inquire about getting her tested for COVID-19. They said they had no ability to get her tested, that we should not be concerned at all that it might actually be COVID-19, and she should visit a clinic. The clinic said it was probably just the flu, and told her to go ahead and fly back but to wear a mask. This was absolutely criminal incompetence on the CDC's part.

190 points by fawce 6y ago

bookofjoe 6y ago

https://archive.is/OHRXU https://archive.is/OHRXU

sp332 6y ago
This gives me a Cloudflare DNS resolution error.
- bathtub365 6y ago
  Works on my machine
- woadwarrior01 6y ago
  Seems to be working for me.
- kitotik 6y ago
  I get a cloudflare http 403.
- viceroyalbean 6y ago
  Archive.is is inaccessible via Cloudlfare DNS, see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19828317 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19828317
  - sp332 6y ago
    I was about to say "I don't use Cloudflare DNS" but eventually I remembered that Firefox's DoH defaults to that. Thanks. Options -> Network Settings -> DoH provider
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- christefano 6y ago
  The reason is explained by Cloudflare CEOin the top voted comment at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19828317 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19828317
- zenexer 6y ago
  That’s because the owner of archive.is blocks DNS resolutions from Cloudflare DNS. They don’t actually use Cloudflare; rather, they have a grudge against Cloudflare, so they return an IP address belonging to Cloudflare when you attempt to resolve through 1.1.1.1. That makes it look as though it’s Cloudflare’s fault when it isn’t. tl;dr archive.is wants Cloudflare to implement ECS, Cloudflare refused due to privacy concerns, archive.is doesn’t allow queries from 1.1.1.1 to resolve correctly.

tyingq 6y ago

The mask guidance is confusing as well. I get they are trying to preserve masks for medical staff. But, they also say it's mainly spread by coughing, sneezing, and resulting spray of bodily fluids. Surely even a scarf around your face would have some benefit? Yes, I get that the virus is small enough to pass through, but some deflection is better than none.

deleted 6y ago
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sonicggg 6y ago
Something does not add up about the advice. Specially given that Eastern authorities encourage the use of makes by the general public. Which part of the World is better handling this pandemic?
- bilbo0s 6y ago
  Masks should just be a given. If we consider a place like South Korea, or Singapore, the executive actions contrast wildly with the executive actions that our city, state, and federal governments have taken. If I'm not mistaken, in Singapore they even went so far as to distribute packs of masks to each and every family. I don't ask for that level of efficiency, but it does illustrate an example of effective executive action during times like these.
  - jplayer01 6y ago
    > I don't ask for that level of efficiency, Well, why the crap not? Why is the west so unbelievably bad at handling this epidemic? Why aren't we able to produce our own masks? These things are essential and it was all off-shored to China. Now the west is screwed while life goes on in Asia.
    - bilbo0s 6y ago
      Actually, we do produce masks. Right here in the US. We just didn't order up enough in the ramp up to prepare for the surge the way the government did in Singapore. As to the question of competence, well, I guess maybe I should demand the eastern level of competence out of my leaders. But what good does it do to demand something that you know from the outset your leaders are not capable of? We have the leaders we have. I can't change that right now. The only thing we can do collectively is to try to get the best we can out of them, realizing that it's very likely their best ain't gonna be anywhere near asia level efficiency. Maybe one of the good things to come out of this crisis will be a demand for higher quality stewards. Maybe we'll get much higher quality candidates at election time? But in all honesty, I kind of doubt it.

capableweb 6y ago

> As the coronavirus epidemic spread around the globe, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provided restrictive guidance on who should be tested, archived pages on its website show. While agencies in other countries were advising and conducting widespread testing, the CDC, charged with setting the U.S. standard for who should be tested for the virus, kept its criteria limited Well, "other countries" also did the same. Spain, for example, seems to be the 3rd country with most infected and I got pneumonia about 2 weeks ago. Called the agencies here but they still didn't want to test me, even with pneumonia! Still got a cough since then and they still won't test me. So, the US is not alone. And it does make a bit sense, I didn't require hospitalization, so makes sense they want to save the resources. But I feel like the article author could have done some better research.

bilbo0s 6y ago
Well, that's a good point. If you don't have the tests, you don't have the tests. I get that. But then just say, "Sorry guys, we can only test critical cases and emergency personnel right now because we don't have the tests." What's concerning is that it's possible to reach a point where a person presenting with pneumonia, is not a critical case.
- vladvasiliu 6y ago
  For me it's been pretty clear that governments in many countries have been caught unprepared. Does it really surprise many people that often governments are wont to downplay such situations? It's pretty much the same story with the masks, which is a political scandal in France at the moment.
rmetzler 6y ago
Germany does the same. I’m under the impression that there is a big selection bias because I know a lot of friends who have symptoms but can’t get testing because they don’t fit the criteria. And the criteria is having contact with a known corona patient or traveled to a risk area.
- 6y ago

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look_lookatme 6y ago

I think a lot of people in medicine, science, economics, policy and the media think what's happening right now is their shining moment, but if you talk to people on the ground -- this is a catastrophe and no one has any clue what's happening and people see that and they are internalizing it. The experts are f* this up and it is going to have long term implications for already eroded public trust in institutions.

CriticalCathed 6y ago
Absolutely. One of the worst consequences that we may have to deal with at the end of this is that public trust will go down. In the beginning our leaders failed to act on the guidance of the scientific and medical communities -- almost two months wasted. And now, our leaders are flailing around implementing policy that is not based on reliable data or scientific evidence. They've both failed to react and then when they did react they are in many ways failing to act prudently. Take a look at this editorial written by John Ioannidis. Excerpt that is relevant, though the whole thing is a worthwhile read: >If COVID-19 is not as grave as it is depicted, high evidence standards are equally relevant. Exaggeration and over-reaction may seriously damage the reputation of science, public health, media, and policy makers. It may foster disbelief that will jeopardize the prospects of an appropriately strong response if and when a more major pandemic strikes in the future. [0] Quick BIO rip from wikipedia: >Ioannidis studies scientific research itself, especially in clinical medicine and the social sciences. He is one of the most-cited scientists in literature. His 2005 paper "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False" is the most downloaded paper in the Public Library of Science, and has the highest number of Mendeley readers across all science." >Ioannidis is a Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor of Statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences. He is director of the Stanford Prevention Research Center, and co-director, along with Steven N. Goodman, of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS). He is also the editor-in-chief of the European Journal of Clinical Investigation. He was chairman at the Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine as well as adjunct professor at Tufts University School of Medicine. [0] https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eci.13222 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eci.13222

nikhizzle 6y ago

My concern here is that bad decisions were made early on in the US, and there will be no accountability. What do mechanisms for accountability here look like? Will they be used? Edit: And more importantly how will we prevent theses same mistakes from happening again?

rflrob 6y ago
Congressional hearings are one big way to hold the executive branch publicly accountable. Then, there’s the election. My sense is that a lot of the bad decisions don’t necessarily rise to the level of negligence, so civil/criminal penalties are unlikely.
- quietthrow 6y ago
  Are congressional hearing just a tame way of public shaming? Or is there more to it. I feel it’s just a slap on the wrist most of the time.
deleted 6y ago
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davelacy 6y ago

CDC has there shortcomings, no doubt but let’s not forget who’s truly to blame for the mess we’re in now. The trump administration’s disbandment of federal institutions created to combat this and the ongoing denial of a serious problem have led to a collapsing economy and isolation of millions. Good article here for sure but let’s not pass the blame to the CDC. We know who to blame...

tathougies 6y ago
Evidence? CDC has more funding than ever. And it's a myth trump got rid of the pandemic team at NSC. They just renamed it the bioterrorism team after people left. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/17/instagram-posts/celebrities-are-sharing-misleading-post-about-trum/ https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/17/instagram-... https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/12/joy-behar/view-co-host-wrongly-says-trump-shut-down-37-globa/ https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/12/joy-behar/...
- CriticalCathed 6y ago
  You are spreading misinformation yourself. Even your own link doesn't support exactly what you just said. "Renaming" is not what happened. Your link: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/17/instagram-posts/celebrities-are-sharing-misleading-post-about-trum/ https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/17/instagram-...
  - tathougies 6y ago
    > After Ziemer’s departure, the global health team was reorganized as part of an effort by then-National Security Adviser John Bolton From https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/dems-misconstrue-trump-budget-remarks/ https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/dems-misconstrue-trump-bud... > Morrison objected to claims that the office was “dissolved,” writing in the Post on March 16 that the administration “create[d] the counterproliferation and biodefense directorate, which was the result of consolidating three directorates into one, given the obvious overlap between arms control and nonproliferation, weapons of mass destruction terrorism, and global health and biodefense. It is this reorganization that critics have misconstrued or intentionally misrepresented.”

SkyMarshal 6y ago

I hope one thing that comes of this outbreak is that all nations develop the processes and capabilities to quickly stop the spread of outbreaks in general. COVID19 is worse than flu, but not as bad as it could have been. We could get hit with something worse in the future. Imagine a strain of Ebola that gestates asymptomatically longer, or another coronavirus with higher mortality rate. This outbreak is good preparation for that one. Anytime you’re dealing with a harmful exponential growth process like an outbreak, the best way to handle it is to overreact early, quickly and briefly. Kill it hard while it’s still small and easy to kill, or it will get out of control fast. Put everything on lockdown/shelter-in-place for a few weeks - [max(gestation period|time to develop and deploy test kits) + safety factor] - test extensively, isolate and treat the infected, stop the outbreak, and then return to normal. Outbreak stopped dead in its tracks, economic damage is minimized and mostly short-term. This is basically what South Korea did and they got their first COVID19 diagnosis the same day as the US: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BW https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testin... That needs to be become a social and political norm everywhere, not just the Asian countries that have faced a widespread outbreak before.

JamesBarney 6y ago
Yeah maybe it'll be in place for next time. But this looks to be about a once in a century event. It happened in 1917 and happening now. I doubt we'll handle it better in 2115.
- mbreese 6y ago
  I don’t know about that. A lot of lessons were learned in the 1918 flu pandemic that were applied here. For example, I’ve seen the comparison between the Philadelphia and St Louis responses multiple times in how governments were reacting. I’m sure there will be lessons here too. The difference in response of between countries is one obvious comparison. But I think another lesson will be how the virus spread globally. With this virus, we have much more information about how the virus was able to spread globally so quickly.

Munky-Necan 6y ago

My colleagues are out of PPE and now using scarves because we are so under supplied. CDC guidelines were just changed to allow staff to be exposed to COVID patients without properly protecting themselves. I was talking with some physicians and providers when I said that I think this will be the Chernobyl like moment of our era: where the truth is hidden from people to prevent a panic paradoxically exacerbating the current crisis. Shockingly, almost all agreed with me.

CriticalCathed 6y ago
This is so completely blowing this crisis out of proportion. I am so confused by the tenor of the discourse on HN. I expected more from this place.
- XorNot 6y ago
  This pandemic is potentially going to kill a lot more people then Chernobyl did. And permanently injure (via lung function damage) many more.
  - Munky-Necan 6y ago
    The common complications, of those initially hospitalized(note this limits our extrapolation for population), that were observed in Wuhan were ARDS, acute cardiac injury 7.2%, acute kidney injury 3.6% [1]. This is most likely analogous to having a mild heart attack(we need to read the EKG and labs here to elucidate the actual prognosis), which is still concerning because long term prognosis is usually poor. Acute kidney injury usually progresses to chronic kidney injury. On top of both of these you're more than correct that lung function will likely decrease. This virus kills lung tissues and although we have cells that are there to heal lungs, SARS-CoV-2 tissue tropism is highest for these cells (ACE2 receptors on type II pneumocytes). Dr. Facui is one of the most respected scientists in the medical field. He's either in the top ten or right around the top ten of the most referenced. He is the reason why HIV has killed only ~50 million people. I'm building his credibility because he has stated that he hopes we're over reacting to this [2-3]. 1)https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32031570/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32031570/ 2) https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/487639-fauci-if-it-looks-like-youre-overreacting-youre-probably-doing-the https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/487639-fauci-... 3) https://www.axios.com/fauci-coronavirus-overreaction-decc88f5-ab25-4c27-86d2-aff3acea583c.html https://www.axios.com/fauci-coronavirus-overreaction-decc88f...

quietthrow 6y ago

This whole corona virus episode has definitely shown one thing. US, under the current govt can’t execute. Despite claims Like “world best”, “most powerful in the world” and whatever else our leaders proclaim it’s all baseless “marketing”. as they say past performance is not a indicator of future performance in the same way we did quite well from 40s/50s onwards for a certain time and build an image based on substance what we had at the time but is now just gone. It’s all a house of cards run on decrepit systems.

jmeister 6y ago
The private industry, academia(atleast for STEM) are still worlds best, by a mile

jtms 6y ago

I have a box of n95 masks I bought a few years back while living in Singapore (there is an annual smoke “haze” there from neighboring countries burning forest to clear land for palm oil production). I tried to give them to a nurse to distribute to other medical staff, but they couldn’t use them because they are a year or so beyond the expiration. News to me that masks even have an expiration date.

s0rce 6y ago
Pretty much everything has an expiry date because the manufacturer has guaranteed its still effective up to that date. Doing that requires time and money. This doesn't mean the masks doesn't work after the expiry date (although it might be less effective) simply that the performance isn't guaranteed and most likely hasn't been tested sufficiently.
dempseye 6y ago
Ask them again in a week.
- 1996 6y ago
  Or make the offer right now to health workers who've been it's perfectly fine to interact with covid patients without any mask. Perfection is the enemy of the good. The amount of medical waste is shocking - as if tools went from 100% effective 100% safe to 0% effective 100% at midnight. I suppose there is a strong cover-your-ass factor at play, that can only be overridden when they have some skin in the game (as in, risk being infected due to 0 mask)
- dahart 6y ago
  It’s not likely to change in a week. U.S. hospitals are required by law to not use expired products.
kps 6y ago
“CDC/NIOSH believes the following products, despite being past their manufacturer-designated shelf life, should provide the expected level of protection… “3M 1860; 3M 1870; 3M 8210; 3M 9010; 3M 8000; Gerson 1730; Medline/Alpha Protech NON27501; Moldex 1512; Moldex 2201.” https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/release-stockpiled-N95.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/release-stockpiled...

magwa101 6y ago

Oh, data, that pesky thing. I go here, and observe rate of change (log) graphs. I ignore linear body counts, which all the headlines scream: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Italy is flattening and exponential growth becomes exponential decay.

RobAtticus 6y ago
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ Italy new cases did flatten to 3500-4000 per day for a few days this past week, but they have since resumed increasing on a daily basis. So I don't think they are out of the woods yet. It may not be exponential, but it is very much super-linear

DoreenMichele 6y ago

From what I gather, the CDC is also largely sweeping the Hepatitis issue under the rug (which is something of a quiet epidemic, but certainly nothing on the scale of covid19). It disproportionately impacts the homeless. The problem appears to have started in San Diego and spread outward from there. I'm aware of the issue because a reporter from San Diego contacted me and interviewed me via email in September 2017 because I run the San Diego Homeless Survival Guide.* Another reporter contacted me when it reached Los Angeles. I received an email last September from something I'm subscribed to indicating it had reached Washington state, though my county was not listed. On a per capita basis, the small town I live in has a worse homeless problem than the big cities that routinely make the news for it. If I had any real power, I would be trying to come up with the means to do a free hygiene event for the homeless and give away hand sanitizer and free haircuts and Hepatitis vaccines, something I had on my mind before covid19 became a thing. I've seen relatively little in the press about it. I have seen at least one article about the resurgence of "Medieval diseases." To my mind, our homeless policies are actively creating a health hazard for the entire nation. CDC policy looks to me like part of the problem. They seem to be sitting on the data about the spread of hepatitis and intentionally not making an effort to publicize it. I imagine it will get swept under the rug entirely in the face of covid19. This seems to me like a good means to compound our problems. I have no idea what do about it. * https://sandiegohomelesssurvivalguide.blogspot.com/2017/09/for-record.html https://sandiegohomelesssurvivalguide.blogspot.com/2017/09/f...

Symmetry 6y ago

Rather than just blaming the CDC, I think the real problem here has been the lack of coordination between the CDC and FDA? CDC: Our test is going to be so much better than the WHO's, we'll test for SARS-CoV-2 in two samples and also test for other simultaneous infections in this third part! FDA: Approved Hospitals: Hey, we can't get that third part to work! CDC: That's ok, just use the first two parts, that's all you really need to diagnose COVID-19. Though I'm sad I won't get any data on simultaneous infections, apparently that was a problem in Northeast China and we want to figure that out for our guidelines. FDA: Only running the first two tests is not what we approved! Verboten! * Laboratory: Let's develop our own SARS-CoV-2 test! FDA: Sure, just make sure to fill out these forms, be sure to send them to us by mail rather than email, and oh, make sure to test against the original SARS to make sure your test doesn't give a false SARS-CoV-2 reading if they patient just has that. Laboratory: Uh, sure. Hey, CDC, can I have a sample of SARS to test against? CDC: NO WHAT ARE YOU CRAZY I'M NOT GIVING YOU THAT! THAT'S SUPER DEADLY!

ejstronge 6y ago
> FDA: Sure, just make sure to fill out these forms, be sure to send them to us by mail rather than email, and oh, make sure to test against the original SARS to make sure your test doesn't give a false SARS-CoV-19 reading if they patient just has that. > Laboratory: Uh, sure. Hey, CDC, can I have a sample of SARS to test against? I've been trying to stay on top of the testing saga, but it's been hard with all the daily changes. Do you have news links that describe this hypothetical exchange taking place? EDIT: in particular, the part around the FDA requiring testing against a sample of SARS.
- Symmetry 6y ago
  From here: >The officials at the FDA instructed him to test his test against the MERS and SARS viruses, which are also coronaviruses. It wasn’t a terrible idea, Greninger thought. Why not develop a test that catches all these deadly coronaviruses all at once? It did seem strange, however, that the FDA was asking for this in an emergency use application: by this point, COVID-19 cases had appeared in six states. (The FDA did not respond to a list of questions about the process.) >Still, Greninger complied. He called the CDC to inquire about getting some genetic material from a sample of SARS. The CDC, Greninger says, politely turned him down: the genetic material of the extremely contagious and deadly SARS virus was highly restricted. https://www.gq.com/story/inside-americas-coronavirus-testing-crisis https://www.gq.com/story/inside-americas-coronavirus-testing...

susanhi 6y ago

We have 330 million people in US. China has ramped their mask production to 200 million masks a day. Had US government had the foresight and common sense to contract mask manufacturers to even produce half of what China is producing - let’s say 100 million masks, we could have had enough for everyone to have a mask in 3-4 days. Universal masks for everyone (not only health care workers) together with hygiene protocol should be the way to “flatten the curve”. This would at the very least inhibit spread by those who have coronavirus but don’t know it yet (asymptomatic). But instead, we’re having these mass shelter in place orders that are destroying our economy, killing businesses and destroying people’s livelihoods. And I still haven’t heard of massive government contracts to mask manufacturers at the scale needed to provide masks for everyone.

true_religion 6y ago
The problem is that the majority of masks manufactures are in China because that’s where the population regularly wears them for the simple flu. Understandably the Chinese government would be unwilling to contract their strategic supply of manufacturing out when they need it for themselves.
- mygo 6y ago
  China offered us lower prices, and the lower prices were great. But right now China isn’t selling us those low priced masks. And we do not need China to produce masks. We know from basic economic theory that there are manufacturers who would either ramp up production or go into production if the demand increased. With China seemingly out of the US mask business for who knows how long there are also fewer available suppliers — another motivator. Domestic manufacturers should be happy to take our money — it’s simply a matter of timing. We knew of the mask shortage at least by January. I know this, because I was following the news around then, and went to the local stores and saw with my own eyes that they were out of stock. I could only get them at Home Depot. Not Walgreens, not Target, not Wal Mart. Had we been contracting manufacturers to produce masks starting then, we wouldn’t be experiencing as many shortages as we are today, assuming it doesn’t take 2 months for pre-existing manufacturers to ramp up production. The botched timing in ramping up domestic production in response to a known shortage is the biggest issue, not the fact that China hasn’t been taking new orders for going on 3 months.

mrdrozdov 6y ago

The actual title is: How the CDC’s Restrictive Testing Guidelines Hid the Coronavirus Epidemic This is very different from guidelines in general. Encouraging people to avoid large crowds, wash their hands and wipe surfaces, and possibly self-quarantine could have made a huge impact earlier on. Instead, people kept going to bars, concerts, and traveling. A lot could have been done, and testing is only part of the story.

dang 6y ago
Yes, we've reverted the title now. Submitters: "Please use the original title, unless it is misleading or linkbait; don't editorialize." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html (Submitted title was "CDC Guidelines Hid the Coronavirus Epidemic")
- mrdrozdov 6y ago
  Cheers.

asiachick 6y ago

I'm still trying to understand why Japan's numbers are so low. You can argue they aren't testing but if the infection rate is similar then the death rate should be similar was well regardless of testing or not. They aren't staying home. Restaurants, bars, and events are still open. Trains are still packed at rush hour. Festivals are still happening. They're planning on starting school in April. I can only see a few possibilities (1) the numbers are false and Japan's death rate is going to accelerate (2) the numbers are true but it's still coming (3) Something about Japanese culture already limits the spread. I don't believe this one. Japanese might wear masks but not all of them wear masks and they are not N95 masks. Japanese are also known to go to work sick, go to cafes sick, visit friends and family sick. Places are crowded. Open and over crowded offices everywhere. (4) Something about Japanese genetics makes them less likely to have a strong reaction I have no idea how to tell which of those it is except to see where they are in a few weeks. If the death rate rises it was (1) or (2). If not then it must be (3) or (4)? Here's their latest graph. The 2 shallow lines at the bottom are Singapore (bottom) and Japan (2nd from bottom). The rest are Italy, Spain, Germany, France going left to right at the top. https://rpr.c.yimg.jp/im_sigg.R1UwQuI2tgBhV1fzJ5o7A---x799-n1/amd/20200322-00169120-roupeiro-001-27-view.jpg https://rpr.c.yimg.jp/im_sigg.R1UwQuI2tgBhV1fzJ5o7A---x799-n...

austinnoone 6y ago
Could it be iodine in their diet from seaweed?
gkanai 6y ago
I am also confused by Japan's situation. The one thing that I don't think Japan can fake is the death rate. As long as the death rate does not significantly rise, somehow Japan is keeping control of the virus without the significant changes to life that were necessary in other places.
catalogia 6y ago
> "I don't believe this one. Japanese might wear masks but not all of them wear masks and they are not N95 masks." Substandard masks are better than no masks, and many people wearing masks is better than few people wearing masks. These are not "all or nothing" matters.

jsight 6y ago

Is anyone else bothered by how many of these articles are behind paywalls?

neonate 6y ago

https://archive.md/tp9HA https://archive.md/tp9HA

dang 6y ago

Related article: https://thedispatch.com/p/timeline-the-regulationsand-regulatorsthat https://thedispatch.com/p/timeline-the-regulationsand-regula... (via https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22656060 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22656060 but no comments there)

bionhoward 6y ago

Metagenomics would solve these issues. Of course we have these problems when a new disease comes along if we have to invent new diagnostics for it. Metagenomics isn’t new, you just sequence the everything and look to see what DNA/RNA is in the environment. That’s orders of magnitude more data because it doesn’t require labels, you don’t need to know in advance what you’re looking for... The devices to do this are getting cheaper faster than Moore’s law. Just takes the will to set up the programs

AndrewBissell 6y ago

In late January my wife and daughter visited Disneyland, and there were a handful of COVID-19 cases reported in SoCal around the same time. On the Sunday they were due to fly back, my daughter came down with a very strong cough (she said it was even "hurting her throat") and a high fever of around 102F. We had been following the outbreak in China and my wife called the CDC to inquire about getting her tested for COVID-19. They said they had no ability to get her tested, that we should not be concerned at all that it might actually be COVID-19, and she should visit a clinic. The clinic said it was probably just the flu, and told her to go ahead and fly back but to wear a mask. This was absolutely criminal incompetence on the CDC's part.