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Yeah some real main character energy from Dario as usual. I'll never get why he thinks China would just sit there and let the US dominate them in AI when all i
by m_ke 2mo ago
Yeah some real main character energy from Dario as usual.
I'll never get why he thinks China would just sit there and let the US dominate them in AI when all it would take is a few of their boats blockading Taiwan to put a stop to it all.
- sterlind 2mo agowouldn't stop AI companies from continuing to develop using their current infrastructure. the West could retaliate by halting shipments of photoresist and other materials to China. meanwhile, Intel second-sources Nvidia and starts pumping out GPUs. the economic fallout would be devastating as trade wars and export bans on both sides make Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs look like NAFTA.
- chrismsimpson 2mo agoThe rest of the world would likely side with China. The export ban on Fable wasn’t even extended to five eyes countries. US is going to find itself isolated and irrelevant. And not a moment too soon.
- matheusmoreira 2mo agoI do wonder what the world will look like under a chinese hegemony though...
- greekrich92 2mo agoNo worse than under US hegemony
- thesmtsolver2 2mo agoMuch much worse: see Tibet or Hong Kong
- owebmaster 2mo agoHow is Hong Kong worse than say, Puerto Rico?
- tw1984 2mo agocare to explain why all governors of Hong Kong under the british rule were white males?
- Foobar8568 2mo agoBecause the only period HK got a wind of freedom was after the signature of the retrocession still .... SARS.
- one33seven 2mo agoVietnam, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan...
- worldthruword 2mo ago[flagged]
- TheArcane 2mo agocertainly better than this one. Look at Africa under western neocolonialism vs China's infrastructure loans
- thesmtsolver2 2mo agoAs someone from India and someone who knows people from Tibet, Chinese hegemony will be much much worse. There is no HN equivalent in China where users advocate that US hegemony will be better.
- alightsoul 2mo agoOn the other hand, India is enemies with China and Tibet is a highly oppressed region. I wonder what the average Chinese in china thinks.
- ido 2mo agoThe average German in Nazi Germany probably didnt think the Nazis were too bad either (of course the average citizen wasn't Jewish, gay, communist or other undesirables). That the average Chinese think things are “just fine” doesn’t mean they are.
- alightsoul 2mo agoUnlike Nazis, I don't see that Chinese communists have expansionist goals to seize territory. Nazis wanted all of Europe. Do Chinese communists want all of say southeast Asia?
- verdverm 2mo agoWe are moving from unipolar hegemony to multipolar. There will be upwards of a dozen poles in time
- matheusmoreira 2mo agoDoubt. China is clearly on a level of its own compared to virtually every other country out there other than the USA.
- verdverm 2mo agoI find it unlikely to be a duoply of hegemony for long, some countries to watch are Germany, Japan, India, Nigeria, and Brazil. You could broaden the geography to continents were I expect major players to emerge on each. We are only a few decades since the "end of history" and much has changed. What do things look like beyond 2050?
- matheusmoreira 2mo ago> Brazil Brazil is basically the world's soy farm. It's at least half a century behind the times. I still have no idea how it managed to insert itself into the BRICS economic block. The notion that it's on the same level as China, India or Russia is just comical.
- verdverm 2mo ago> Brazil is basically the world's soy farm To reduce a culture and country like this comes off as bigotry In example, Brazil has the #3 airplane producer in the world Or consider why the US is doing all it can to prevent their payment system from becoming widely used? I was intentional about putting the perspective in the future over today as the poles of the world are evolving
- owebmaster 2mo agoOP is one of many Brazilians that hates Brazil, which ironically is the reason why the country historically can't grow to its full potential
- a34729t 2mo agobetter dim sum, hopefully. the local chinese food is a crime against gastronomy.
- marcus_holmes 2mo agoChina is very inward-looking, though. It's not really interested in world domination in the same sense that Europe was or even the USA was/is.
- nativeit 2mo agoChina has been aggressively developing infrastructure and financial services all over Africa and the rest of Asia. https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106866 https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106866
- fnord77 2mo agoresource extraction stealth colonialism
- d5lt5 2mo agoThe alternative is western colonialism Africa experienced before, and bombing campaigns.
- CaptWorld 2mo agoWestern colonialism is better than eastern colonialism tho. Look at the Russian orgs in Africa.
- marcus_holmes 2mo agoBetter for whom? Certainly not the colonised...
- CaptWorld 2mo agoYeah for the ones who get colonized, western ones were better than eastern ones. Japanese ones would've made Britishers look like kids when they were occupying eastern India.
- chrismsimpson 2mo agoYou’re already seeing it. Strategic bilateralism.
- petre 2mo agoKeep an eye on Central Asia and Pakistan then? They are heavily infuenced by China.
- FooBarWidget 2mo agoIt's called Tang and Ming dynasty. We already know.
- verdverm 2mo ago> the West could retaliate by halting shipments of China quickly retaliated last time by stopping shipments of rare earths and magnets. The West has no answer for this, really up the river without a paddle for such critical supply chain elements.
- 0cf8612b2e1e 2mo agoI was led to believe that the US does have internal sources of these, but they are largely undeveloped. For years the processing could not economically compete with China so shutdown. Which is to say, given internal subsidies, the US could eventually produce some on its own. Unless I misunderstood the situation.
- verdverm 2mo agoI believe we both share this understanding, the problems are 1. China controls ~90% today 2. The US will find it difficult to build out because of how dirty and environmentally damaging mining and processing are. I did see some research last week about a better way to process rare earths, but it is still research and will need to be industrialized. Regardless, it will take many years (decade+?) to become self sufficient and China is already willing to and increasingly restricting them
- verdverm 2mo agohttps://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49084690 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49084690 https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/trump-may-need-allow-chinese-minerals-us-industry-struggles-meet-2027-deadline-2026-07-27/ https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/trump-may-need-allo...
- tw1984 2mo agoChina controls way more things, from medical needles to pharmaceutical ingredient. Lots of them can be made in the west or west friendly countries, but that takes time, money, infrastructure and good execution. Yes, identical to what is covered in China's belt and road initiatives. See the gap now?
- soperj 2mo agoChina would just start buying oil again, and stop using it from their strategic reserve. Hello $200 barrels of oil.
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- rubslopes 2mo agoThis Onion meme is perfect; you could easily replace Sam with Dario: https://theonion.com/sam-altman-if-i-dont-end-the-world-someone-far-more-dangerous-will/ https://theonion.com/sam-altman-if-i-dont-end-the-world-some...
- cassianoleal 2mo agoYou don’t need to replace them. Dario is the “someone” in question.
- brokenmachine 2mo agoWhat exactly happens to a "losing" country when it has been AI "dominated"?
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- crossroadsguy 2mo agoYou already have examples. Venezuela, Iran, Ukraine, Libya… maybe Japan? The list is sort of long. Juxtapose or something.
- brokenmachine 2mo agoAnd here I was thinking that all of those had nothing to do with AI.
- crossroadsguy 2mo agoOh. I thought a whole lot of the point and discussion of this post was AI being potentially weaponised and becoming means of economic and military control and coercion. Or did I really miss something?
- brokenmachine 2mo agoWhich of those country examples have AI being used as a means of economic and military control and coercion? Ukraine and Iran, no. I'm not familiar with the others.
- mctaylor 2mo agoYes and no. Yes because it's more about oil than AI, no because AI is the oil industry and their supporting vested financial interests' (not so secret) plan to keep demand for fossil fuel high if/when the climate change deniers lose. "We would love to use green energy, but all the batteries and solar panels come from China and China is evil, and we need all the energy we can get to run the data centres we need to spy on our citizens so they don't revolt once the environment is literally on fire, we can't feed them, provide enough energy to cool them, and refuse to build enough housing to house them."
- windexh8er 2mo agoDario is more of a threat to the US, in terms of advancements in AI, than China. In Dario's mind anything that can't be controlled competitively is a threat to Anthropic, so he positions his FUD strawman so that Dario doesn't have to worry about the competition. And then he can artificially inflate token costs so his IPO can happen. Dario doesn't actually care about ethics, alignment or availability of LLMs - he just likes to use those words to sound like he does. Yet we've all seen how Anthropic actually acts vs what they say. The scary part very few are talking about is that every compute device is Turing complete. So everything from the phone in your pocket to a DGX Spark is a threat to national security now since, technically, every device can run any model (how well is not a question of concern when you start to argue hardware should be gated just the same as Dario likes to gate models). I mean, along these lines of thinking Linux should not be available to the masses! What if someone runs some code that's not approved by the benevolent dictator for life, Dario? People will say: that can't happen, but the reality is it already is. If everyone has reasonable access to compute to run models that are mostly capable comparative to burning Anthropic tokens, why wouldn't they? It's risk reduction and price protection. Yet we can't buy those systems because of future production already being purchased by these organizations. But back to the models themselves... We played this game with Metasploit back in the day: many who had no clue claimed exploit tools should be regulated and only available for use by those blessed, illegal elsewhere (I believe the closest this got was the Wassenaar delegation in the US, but only through collateral inclusion of "cyber weapons "). Except in that timeframe the authors of these tools weren't advocating for protection. Today the world is fine, systems improved because of security FOSS tooling. The same thing will happen with LLMs. Unless, that is, Dario gets his way. I'm not a fan of Altman but I think he's standing back watching this play out knowing what Dario is doing: either he succeeds and OAI benefits or Dario ends up the Chicken Little of AI and Anthropic fails to launch (their IPO). The reality is Dario is only doing this because this is a real risk to his business. China's constraints in building competitively have given them an advantage: they are doing more with less. And if you think that their distilling from US models was in any way anti-competitive or illegal, then I guess maybe "deal with it", much akin to Anthropic, Google and OAI's response around taking the (copyright) content in the first place with no repercussions. People who don't work in the AI bubble don't care at all about any of these people. They could all be gone overnight and the world would continue to innovate, probably in a much more productive manner, without them.
- wbl 2mo ago11 carriers are not just for show.
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- otabdeveloper4 2mo agoCould have fooled me, judging by the Iran and Yemen performance.
- fakedang 2mo agoIran showed us that they apparently are.
- wbl 2mo agoDon't confuse political limitations and lack of a theory of victory with the inability to achieve a goal. A blockade needs ships those ships can be destroyed.
- xnx 2mo agoSaying "all it would take" and then describing an act of war is an interesting opinion.