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After this strike, the only AWS region in the ME that remains operational is the one in Tel Aviv (a bit ironic if you ask me). UAE has been down for months, Ba
by input_sh 2mo ago
After this strike, the only AWS region in the ME that remains operational is the one in Tel Aviv (a bit ironic if you ask me).
UAE has been down for months, Bahrain is now offline, Saudi Arabia is still under construction.
- cyanydeez 2mo agonot really ironic given the billions of dollars israel gets to defend themselves. Iran, and most of the modern world, are not idiots.
- dundarious 2mo agoRadars and bases along the path of travel from Iran to Israel have been progressively degraded. Various interceptor types also have low stockpiles at present. I'm absolutely not an expert keeping well-informed, but my understanding is that Jordan's recent losses mean much of the path is now relatively clear of air defenses, and Israel would have to mount most/all defenses from their own territory for the first time. But Israel is at-present not engaging in the war, preferring to let US do the work, as a minister recently stated. Regardless, it may be attacked, depending on IDF actions in Lebanon.
- dmix 2mo agoIran also isn't hitting Israel because they know Israel will go after Tehran and the regime more directly. They were the ones to target the Basij police, industrial and steel plants, government buildings etc. America is mostly constraining itself to bombing the coast and military assets, with a focus on the strait. That plus most of Iran's attacks on Israel didn't do anything and likely still won't. Which is why Iran focused on the weaker gulf states even when Israel was involved.
- sudosysgen 2mo agoIran has recently demonstrated the ability to execute accurate strikes in Jordan. If it can do so in Jordan, it can do so in Israel once Israeli air defences are similarly degraded. Doubly so because many missiles meant for Israel were intercepted by Jordan. Iran knows Israel won't stop itself from attacking for too long. So they are going to wait until that point and they are likely going to try the same targeting methodology to paralyze Israeli airbases. If they manage to do so, they will be able to significantly reduce the US/Israeli strike tempo and to be more successful using drones, not even missiles.
- dmix 2mo agoThis assumes Iran is maintaining consistent stockpiles and still has the capability of large attacks, including their fancier missiles which can avoid SAM systems. It's been well reported the number of drones/missiles Iran fired has consistently decreased. Israel and the US destroyed most of their missile factories so Iran is going to be conservative with how they use them. At the peak Iran fired 650 missiles at Israel and only killed 28 people, mostly from hitting a single residential building. These days Iran is only firing small salvos into gulf states and only 20-30 drones at a time. I'd be surprised if they could pull off 2025 numbers when they fired a hundred at Israel.
- sudosysgen 2mo agoIran has been getting consistent impacts on US bases in Jordan essentially every day for the past few weeks, and they are well defended. At the end of the day Iran has more missiles than the US has interceptors. So when you get to the point when you're talking about running out, they just don't need to launch big salvos anymore.
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- overfeed 2mo ago> It's been well reported the number of drones/missiles Iran fired has consistently decreased. One way of interpreting that statistic is that they are running out of munitions. Another way is to consider that stockpiles are not running low, but the initial response was a collection of high-burn, uncoordinated, decentralized tactical actions after an attempted decapitation-strike disrupted top-down C&C. Now that the fog of war has cleared, and communication has been restored, a more strategic regime is now in effect.
- dundarious 2mo agoYes this is essentially what I was thinking. And there have been repeated estimates about Iranian stockpiles that have proven completely wrong. I think they have been able to manufacture throughout the war.
- ChrisMarshallNY 2mo agoI would be worried about staying in the Jumeirah Burj Al Arab, these days. I suspect that Iran knows that going after Dubai would upset a lot of American (and Sunni) billionaires.
- illliillll 2mo agoThe service might be a bit poor, given that Burj Al Arab has already been closed for months since Iran struck it in the beginning of March.
- ChrisMarshallNY 2mo agoAh. Makes sense. I have been deliberately avoiding keeping up with that mess. ...which I now return to...
- thisislife2 2mo agoUAE paid Iran billions of dollars to halt strikes: Report - https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uae-paid-iran-billions-dollars-halt-strikes-report https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uae-paid-iran-billions-do... .
- ChrisMarshallNY 2mo agoDanegeld!
- DonnyV 2mo agoThe north of Israel has been completely evacuated. But yeah Iran didn't do any damage. lol
- emosenkis 2mo agoYou seem to be woefully uninformed on this subject. Far northern Israel was evacuated in 2023 and has long since moved on to reconstruction. No significant damage in the area was directly from Iran, it was all from Hezbollah (their proxy militia in Lebanon).
- spwa4 2mo ago... was at one point partially evacuated. It isn't currently, and hasn't been for years at this point. You may be confused with southern Lebanon, which is.
- dmix 2mo agoThe north of israel also wasn't evacuated for the recent Iran campaign. That was in 2024 and they didn't evacuate for the recent ground invasion they did in Southern Lebanon.
- rbanffy 2mo ago> Which is why Iran focused on the weaker gulf states even when Israel was involved. Also, Israel will not abandon (or be abandoned) by the US, but the others might want to cut their losses if supporting the US becomes costlier than being neutral. The game being played is extremely interesting, with high stakes and no margin for error. Too bad people die.
- dmix 2mo agoBoth Kuwait and Bahrain did airstrikes in Iran today with intelligence and air support from UAE. The gulf states being low risk targets will likely be a short term thing for Iran in the long run as well. https://x.com/WSJ/status/2080693251682795705 https://x.com/WSJ/status/2080693251682795705
- rbanffy 2mo agoThe US will not be able to sustain a military presence in the Middle East for much longer. Dedollarisation is happening and when it hits a tipping point, they won’t be able to sustain their current debt financing and interest on treasury bonds will rise sharply to compensate for that. Won’t be pretty, as no empire has ever fallen peacefully.
- flyinglizard 2mo agoThe Israelis are the only ones that can, and want, to strike back. Besides no one weeps for missiles falling on Israeli cities, so that doesn’t serve the Iranians at all. Lots of much softer targets for Iranian missiles which can’t do anything to Iran.
- achenet 2mo agoForgive the uninformed question, but doesn't Saudi Arabia also have significant armed forces? Given that Iran has closed the Straights of Hormuz and attacked several other Arab states, and has conducted strikes in Saudia Arabia itself, wouldn't that give Saudia Arabia a solid reason to strike back?
- overfeed 2mo agoSaudi Arabia has carried out airstrikes in Iran - but geography is a good reason not to want to escalate hostilities, despite the generational animus between the countries.
- 8note 2mo agolast time ksa went to war it was against yemen, and didnt go very well.
- tibbydudeza 2mo agoA show army - the monarchy don't trust an army of rural peasants - they might get ideas and stage a coup.
- vjvjvjvjghv 2mo agoFrom what I have read, their armed forces aren’t very motivated. There are stories about pilot trainings where the pilots were a bunch of rich guys that got into their jet, took off with full afterburner, did some fun loops and landed after using up their fuel. Saudi has the advantage that they have the US doing the dirty work for them. No need to do much themselves.
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- RazorBucksICO 2mo ago[flagged]
- red-iron-pine 2mo ago[flagged]
- RazorBucksICO 2mo agoBizarre in the sense of mostly performative tit for tat strikes instead of some kind of serious strategy to win and to win for good. And in the case of Iran, the strikes are telegraphed in advance in almost comedic fashion. “OK, we’re starting operation True Promise n. We’re launching missiles. We’re about to do it, guys. OK is everyone ready? For the missiles? These are the targets, but next time it could be more serious, OK?” This does not resemble what I would imagine a fight for civilization survival to look like. I’m talking about the stakes being you win or you, your family, and every man, woman and infant you know is going to be killed or starved in concentration camps.
- bluealienpie 2mo agoIsrael has densely populated urban neighborhoods that would be completely wiped out in a conventional attack. Tehran would be destroyed with nukes but so would every major Israeli city. The scale of country size is immense. If Israel thought that nuclear weapons were a viable option, they would use them already. That’s the reason for the tit for tat. They both have capacity to attacks that would devastate each other countries. Smotrich would rather the US take the brunt of attack and losses their ME bases.
- ButlerianJihad 2mo agoIt is really comedic! When the US sent over that bunker-buster bomber run, I noticed this for sure! The US and Iran's leadership basically choreographed this over X, and the misdirection, with one bomber's transponder flying in the opposite direction, was nearly adorable! And the later "retaliation" against local bases by Iran was in the same, choreographed public fashion. At this point it seems to be a very respectful gentleman's conflict. It's very unlike some of the wars we've got entangled in, for sure. It seems like both sides sort of acknowledge that if we don't play fair, if it's not choreographed, if we don't stick to the rules, we really possess the power for world-ending, horrific conflict.
- trhway 2mo agoAMZN could have for example bought a "Gepard" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard) - easily shoots down cruise missiles and drones. Just a couple millions would have saved billions.
- TheGamerUncle 2mo agoThat would imply two things: One> An executive has to care about a cost center, then proceeds to invest in prevention instead of looking like a hero after, instead of putting off a fire an getting a promotion or bonus. Which is nigh impossible. Two> Our tech overlords try to push for our cyberpunk present to at least look kinda cool. Which they also refuse todo.
- dyauspitr 2mo agoSo you’re saying American corporations should start having their own military divisions. (I realize it’s a stretch from what you’re suggesting but if you think about it, not really)
- trhway 2mo agoI'm not saying they should. I'm saying they unavoidably would https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47981423 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47981423 , https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47776031 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47776031
- rolph 2mo agoit may surprise you just how well equipped corporate security divisions can be. government contractors may be embedded in high stakes situations.
- sudosysgen 2mo agoThere are plenty of comparable systems in US bases that nevertheless were frequently hit.
- dredmorbius 2mo agoDog-pod grids: <https://diamond-age.bib.bz/security-measures-adopted-by-atlantis-shanghai https://diamond-age.bib.bz/security-measures-adopted-by-atla...>