sudosysgen

5 ms·

1.
by sudosysgen 1mo ago
This is not entirely true. There are plenty of people of that opinion but there were plenty of people that thought that the US would be able to achieve air supremacy, and then destroy the missile cities, which would eventually mean Iran wou
2.
by sudosysgen 1mo ago
This is not clear at all. The MMA program, which is the MQ9 replacement, is mostly the same mission set, but has a slightly lower per unit price tag and lower capability - there is a good chance that the MQ9B ends up being the MQ9 replaceme
3.
by sudosysgen 1mo ago
MDMA is far, far easier to make than a virus from nothing. People can make it in their basement.
4.
by sudosysgen 1mo ago
I am aware, I personally knew someone who did so a decade ago. This is very different from synthesizing and culturing a virus from a sequence. Also, you wouldn't use CRISPR for this, you'd make a plasmid. The best defense for thes
5.
by sudosysgen 1mo ago
Why would they need help from an LLM to design a sequence when there are sequences for many existing highly pathogenic viruses and well understood ways to make them more harmful? Besides, biology grad students rarely or never have access to
6.
by sudosysgen 1mo ago
The genetic sequence for smallpox is publicly available. The bottleneck in causing maximum harm is that you need a large, expensive, well stocked lab and a lot of expertise. LLMs helping people generate a sequence just isn't the bottle
7.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
They didn't go straight, though. Chinese companies have been working for years on ICE. In fact, the largest companies were focused on ICE cars, and many were outcompeted by domestic EV upstarts. Chinese cars have been sold worldwide fo
8.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
Sure, none of that is inherent. But do note that China never caught up in internal combustion engines. They had to wait for a fundamental paradigm change to catch up, and were not able to copy ICE technology to a satisfactory level. Similar
9.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
There is definitely comparative advantage in certain technologies which depend on a niche supply chain with deep materials science experience, simply due to experience and network economies. China has many such advantages too. Lithography i
10.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
The cost is not just pure development. There are very high switching costs, and downstream opportunity costs affecting the entire ecosystem. As an example, Nikon was competitive with ASML in DUV for a while, but no one was willing to switch
11.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
The steelman of the argument is that, due to legacy in technology and comparative advantage, unless they expect a serious supply chain tech, many core technologies will be too expensive to duplicate for China and so there will be areas wher
12.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
Mythos is Fable without safeguards. Open weight models are already essentially at the Mythos level, and with extra post training a well resourced actor could deploy would almost certainly be significantly better than Mythos at hacking. What
13.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
As the private/working reserves are set to reach operational minimums in a month or less at the current pace, the SPR will have to increase draw rate or there will have to be further demand destruction. If it goes to 7mn a week, below
14.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
It changes how many attempts you get until the attack surfaces changes to react to a failed attack, and it does so in a way that is not predictable to the attacker.
15.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
> "defenders have to be right 100% of the time, while attackers only have to be right once" If you have an adaptive system that can react to attacks flexible (say, your own AI agent), then no, that's not correct. It is cor
16.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
No, he refused the DoW demand to use Anthropic models without limits. But Anthropic still agreed to military usage of their models, including for strike planning.
17.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
There are plenty of comparable systems in US bases that nevertheless were frequently hit.
18.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
Iran has been getting consistent impacts on US bases in Jordan essentially every day for the past few weeks, and they are well defended. At the end of the day Iran has more missiles than the US has interceptors. So when you get to the point
19.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
Iran has recently demonstrated the ability to execute accurate strikes in Jordan. If it can do so in Jordan, it can do so in Israel once Israeli air defences are similarly degraded. Doubly so because many missiles meant for Israel were inte
20.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
It's not, but it's not coincidence either. The reason for the US entanglements in the Persian Gulf intensifying are because it's a choke point for oil, and the reason the US feels freer to mess around is because the US became
21.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
Anthropic had Mythos-Preview for many months internally, but from available sources was an active work in progress, and it seems they started releasing it via Project Glasswing to partners before the final checkpoint was available.
22.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
https://www.kimi.com/blog/kimi-k3 "The full model weights will be released by July 27, 2026."
23.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
Many of these techniques haven't been published very long ago - it often takes a good 6-8 months for techniques to percolate. But also, they come at a complexity cost and, seemingly, also at a stability cost.
24.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
The article says weights will be released in the coming days, and hints it's likely around 50-70B active params.
25.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
It's an open model, you can just wait a few days and you'll get to choose who to hand it over to, or given the resources you can run it on your own box.
26.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
If you read DeepSeek's papers, you'll find a litany of architectural features that allow for a greatly reduced cache hit price by shrinking the size of the KV-cache.
27.
by sudosysgen 2mo ago
The literal interpretation of that sentence is "when it is second or third, it is only behind Fable 5 or 5.6 Sol". And indeed they give benchmarks where it is ahead of one but not both models.
28.
by sudosysgen 3mo ago
Much of this is probably true. However, Mythos is not a hacking focused model, and while Anthropic seems to train their models on CTFs etc... while others like Zhipu seem not to or not nearly as much, that does mean that it's entirely
29.
by sudosysgen 3mo ago
A lot of bad actors are both technically sophisticated and have more than enough resources to post train their model. Morally I think it's still the right choice, but consequence wise I doubt it's going to make a big difference.
30.
by sudosysgen 3mo ago
> What can Iran do if other countries consider Iranian ship as free for the taking as retaliation for Iran attacking ships in the strait of hormuz? This is exactly what Trump tried. The US was boarding Iranian ships thousands of kilomete

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