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Data on How America Sold Out Its Computer Science Graduates

77 points by haskellandchill 1y ago

s5300 1y ago
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rayiner 1y ago
I’ve been hearing about this for decades. It keeps happening because republicans need their cheap labor and democrats need foreign voters. The people in power have tremendous political incentives to keep the pipeline flowing.
- bestouff 1y ago
  Does this mean only foreigners aren't brainwashed enough to mostly vote Republican ?
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  - blargthorwars 1y ago
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- poulsbohemian 1y ago
  Given that one must be a citizen to vote, this doesn’t appear to be the right angle through which to call out the Democratic Party. If you were to speak with Democratic Party leadership, I believe the emphasis would be on attractive talent from around the world to keep American businesses competitive. Certainly if there are problems with these visa programs, it’s worthwhile to bring them up to elected officials and push for changes.
  - rayiner 1y ago
    H1Bs get citizenship, and they raise their children in their home cultures. My parents are citizens and have been voting for decades. But they still think and vote like Bangladeshis. I’m not saying it’s some written-out plan. But look at how left wing Indians and Indian politicians in the U.S. are compared to say German Americans. (Socialism was a founding principle of the modern Indian state.) People in the party are acting according to their incentives.
    - esseph 1y ago
      India is overwhelmingly conservative. March 1990 changed everything. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservatism_in_India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservatism_in_India
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- FirmwareBurner 1y ago
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  - danesparza 1y ago
    Look closer, or choose different friends. This is an extremely reductionist view of what's going on right now. If you don't see people in both parties working hard to try to shelter, protect and defend these people, you aren't looking hard enough.
  - intermerda 1y ago
    > Where did you see that? On the news, I only see democrats crying "who's gonna mow my lawn" whenever Donald is deporting illegals, neve republicans. This is a brain rotten to the core on right wing propaganda. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/donald-trump-stephen-miller-washington-white-house-hotel-b2770228.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/donald-trump-stephen-mill... https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-u-turn-deporting-farm-215426920.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-u-turn-deporting-farm-21542... https://archive.ph/1Q4p9 https://archive.ph/1Q4p9
  - pcthrowaway 1y ago
    I haven't seen any criticism of deportations from Democrats because "who's gonna mow my lawn". I'm sure it happens, but I haven't seen it. I've seen an endless feed of Democrats and people further left concerned about the human rights abuses happening right now with ICE and deportations Bold of you to assume any of these people have a lawn to mow.
- delusional 1y ago
  > democrats need foreign voters Is there any proof for this statement? Republicans want cheap labor, they'll tell you that themselves, but I don't believe the Democrats would ever say that they believe in labor immigration to "get more voters". That just sounds like a ludicrous conspiracy.
  - rayiner 1y ago
    Have you forgotten the last 15 years of “demographics is destiny” and “coalition of the ascendant” rhetoric? The rising identity politics? All together with a strong shift in pro-immigration policy from the party since 2008? (In 2004, democrats and republicans had roughly similar views on immigration: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-democrats-became-stuck-on-immigration https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-democrats-became-st....)
    - delusional 1y ago
      I'm not American. This is the first time I'm hearing either "demographics is destiny" or "coalition of the ascendant". "Demographics is destiny" seems to be a quote from a french philosopher from the 1800s, while "coalition of the ascendant" seems to be a description of the coalition Obama sought to build in his second term, an idea swiftly dismantled in 2016. The articles I can find discussing these things don't contain any democrats scheming about using immigrants to overtake the republicans. The only people I find talking about how it will "estrange the republican party from these growing demographics" are republicans. I'm not going to claim that no democrat has ever considered that outcome, but I am going to propose that it seems more likely to me that if that were to happen it would be a result of politics they'd be in favor of anyway. In general, it's pretty popular to help people. I don't think republicans would disagree that part of their coalition is built on higher income individuals, which they hope to grow by raising incomes. They're not doing that as a sort of underhanded tactic, they believe income is good. In the same way I think the Obama democrats do believe in helping immigrants, and obviously that makes them more popular amongst immigrants. That's not a scheme, that's just a policy. I don't think this is nearly as clear cut as you believe it is.
- esseph 1y ago
  They can't vote in Federal elections if they're not citizens.
  - rayiner 1y ago
    In practice, H1B is a pipeline to citizenship, not just for the worker but their immediate family and extended family (due to family sponsorship). One H1 visa to my dad resulted in seven additional Bangladeshis in the U.S. And my dad did not sponsor a fraction of the family members he could have. Moreover, foreign mindsets are durable over generations: https://www.sup.org/books/economics-and-finance/culture-transplant https://www.sup.org/books/economics-and-finance/culture-tran... ("In The Culture Transplant, Garett Jones documents the cultural foundations of cross-country income differences, showing that immigrants import cultural attitudes from their homelands—toward saving, toward trust, and toward the role of government—that persist for decades, and likely for centuries, in their new national homes. Full assimilation in a generation or two, Jones reports, is a myth.").
    - esseph 1y ago
      > "Moreover, foreign mindsets are durable over generation" Right, and most countries are very conservative compared to the US, in particular many of the countries that the average H1B holder is from. India, for example. That means Republican voters. The entire premise is flawed fearmongering.
      - rayiner 1y ago
        Anglo culture is distinctive both in its liberalism and its conservatism. My Bangladeshi family are well to the right of American republicans when it comes to say tattoos or divorce, but they don’t care about limited government or legal proceduralism. I don’t have to fear monger. The cake is already baked. David Shor estimates that Trump tied or narrowly won foreign-born voters. Mass immigration didn’t kill the GOP, but it changed what kind of conservative party could assemble a winning coalition. And it looks like more like Trump (or Bolsonaro or Modi) and less like Mitt Romney or George H.W. Bush. Hope Obama was worth it!
airocker 1y ago
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- airocker 1y ago
  Conclusion The data points cited in the article are mostly accurate, based on available government reports (e.g., USCIS, ICE, NACE). However, the interpretations and causal claims are ideologically framed and often lack nuance: Sound in identifying employment and wage challenges for new CS graduates. Oversimplified in attributing these challenges mainly or solely to foreign workers. Questionable in presenting policy recommendations as the only “truth-based” solution. If you're looking for a deeper, balanced understanding, consider consulting: National Science Board’s Science & Engineering Indicators Brookings Institution or Cato Institute reports (for contrasting views) NACE and NCES for graduate outcomes and education data
- meindnoch 1y ago
  And? You want an applause or what?
  - airocker 1y ago
    Just so others don’t have to do it. I did not think this post was hn worthy so wanted to save some time for others. Maybe hn needs to do it automatically
- tomhow 1y ago
  Please don’t do this on HN. Even before LLMs were commonplace we eschewed summaries or TL;DRs.
  - airocker 1y ago
    Sure, but llm may be more unbiased and give high quality summary. But I won’t do it again, I am sure you have thought about it much more than I have.
    - tomhow 1y ago
N1H1L 1y ago
There are a lot of errors in that article. Like line 1, the idea that foreign students get jobs before Americans do. Quite the opposite in real life. Go to any school, and see the employment rates in that school for US vs foreign students. Also H1B pays FICA taxes, that exemption is only for OPT. The OPT exemption can be easily removed.
- seanmcdirmid 1y ago
  Grad students (foreign and non-foreign) also don't pay FICA (or at least, they didn't when I was in grad school). Not that it matters much, grad student pay is nothing to dream about.
- carom 1y ago
  That first point is not comparing students, it is saying that the H1B visas issued that year all have jobs lined up (which is a requirement of the visa). Those jobs are what the new graduates would normally be competing for.
  - N1H1L 1y ago
    And you have to apply to get that job. And the vast majority of companies would prefer a US citizen or an LPR for that job, because there is no guarantee that you will get the visa approved.
tayo42 1y ago
>The percentage of computer science graduates ... For those who specialized in computer programming, Isn't computer programing all of computer science. This seems like a weird distinction to make? The job market just seems to suck, if it didnt i dont think things like this would come up. I dont think immigration is the reason for the job market sucking. theres no jobs to apply to, theres no jobs to take from americans in the first place
- DaSHacka 1y ago
  > I dont think immigration is the reason for the job market sucking. theres no jobs to apply to, theres no jobs to take from americans in the first place Are you sure about that? Microsoft recently laid off 9,000 American workers while applying for 14,000 H1B visa workers [0]. They are transparently offshoring jobs from Americans to foreign workers. [0] https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/microsoft-applied-to-fill-thousands-of-foreign-worker-positions-in-months-before-mass-layoffs/ar-AA1IfD1r https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/microsoft-applied-to...
  - tayo42 1y ago
    That article says that isn't rellly accurate for Microsoft. But where are the job listings that h1b applicants are using. It seems like job availability is just down overall
- Karliss 1y ago
  Universities provide various specializations for the computer related programs: actual computer Science (math and algorithms with focus on research), computer networks and other IT infrastructure stuff, computer hardware, software engineering (the process of designing, architecting and managing the lifecycle of large scale software projects) for those that approach software like engineering project, and of course there is actual programming.
- bregma 1y ago
  > Isn't computer programing all of computer science. In the same way accountancy is all of math.
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zer00eyz 1y ago
Soham got 5 jobs. More than 5 jobs... He kept them for a while too. We didn't lie to comp sci grads, they have the skills to DO the job, but the interview is a whole other skill that they have to learn. There is a gauntlet to be run of goofy interview questions and qualifiers. I dont know any one in the last few years who hasn't gone back to leetcode and the like to brush up if they needed to look. Then you get posts like this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35079183 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35079183 https://emaggiori.com/employed-in-tech-for-years-but-almost-never-worked/ https://emaggiori.com/employed-in-tech-for-years-but-almost-... Staff doing nothing or not pulling their weight is far more common than people think. Managers are resistant to firing staff, not because of HR, or emotional reasons. Rather many of them don't want to deal with the judgement of their peers (why did you make the bad hire to start with), and the judgement of their team/group. Office politics at the director level and above in a large organization is BRUTAL.
- laluser 1y ago
  Not a great comparison, but agree that it just takes passing some goofy interviews. That guy lied his way through all of his interviews.
bitmasher9 1y ago
I don’t understand why we care if foreign born individuals are coding out software. We all use foreign written code daily. Any student will look at the job prospects of their major before selecting it. We aren’t lying to them. I won’t feel bad for a student fresh out of college that “only” received a job offer for 95k, when that’s above the US median household income. I’m skeptical the lower job placement rate is due to H1B, and it might be more related to larger labor market trends.
azinman2 1y ago
“eliminate the STEM OPT extension” I won’t get into h1b which gets plenty of air time, but this is the first time I’ve ever heard anyone wanting to eliminate OPT. This is beyond idiotic. Foreigners come and get educated in the US; if we didn’t have OPT they’d have to go back to their home country and contribute there. Instead with OPT we give them a chance to integrate into American companies, making the US more competitive as a whole. This is a massive strategic advantage. Places like MIT/CalTech/CMU are heavily made up of foreigners. We need the best and brightest minds from the world; only pulling from 350M vs 8B is a giant mistake.
- ACCount36 1y ago
  One of the big advantages US has is that it's on the receiving end of brain drain. A lot of the best talent worldwide wants to go to US, learn in the US and work in the US.
- corimaith 1y ago
  More like they come to America because there aren't enough opportunities or good enough facilities back at home, get years of experience and knowledge, then go back home and start a billion dollar business that starts competing with said American companies they were just working for.
  - azinman2 1y ago
    I’d love to see the data on this. There aren’t that many billion dollar businesses, period, especially compare to the number of people on OPT. If the US is a great place with more opportunity, then the pressure is to stay versus go back. When the US becomes anti-foreigner, then we all lose.
- waitwhatwhoa 1y ago
  The STEM OPT _extension_ is an additional year on top of the one year that all graduates get. I believe the article is arguing for getting rid of that extension, not all OPT.
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KingOfCoders 1y ago
It seems to miss foreign students?
ylow 1y ago
This is using statistics to tell a preconceived story. Underlying this a notion that foreign workers are simply “imported” like they are dug out of the ground or something. How do these STEM OPT people find jobs? Guess what. They interview like everyone else does. 1: Every big tech interview I have been in the visa status is not even a question in the interview process. There is just a simple gate that “can you legally work in the US”? The hiring committee is not even thinking about visa (that’s a HR problem) 2: Are there confounders in that foreign workers are less likely to negotiate? Absolutely. 3: are there confounders in that people who come to US for study are likely already a self selected bunch who are striving to succeed? What are the typical grade distributions between foreign STEM students and US STEM students? Is grade a confounding variable? What happens if we control for GPA? And finally does H1B abuse happen? Absolutely. There is a lot of nuance that are not captured by surface level statistics. But nuance does not make outrage.
- delusional 1y ago
  I think that nuance is fairly unwarranted when you observe the American system through the lens the laws ask you to view it through. The American H1B system isn't about importing foreign workers that do a good job, it's about importing foreign workers that do a job no American could do. The system demands you look for some American do do the job first, and only if you fail to find one can you import one from overseas. In that view, all the talk about GPA fall flat, because it doesn't matter if the foreign worker is better than an American worker, you are supposed to pick the American worker anyway.
  - lazide 1y ago
    Bwaha. I have never met an H1B in tech that was doing a job that an American could not do. The ‘mandatory interviews for Americans’ are just transparent scams.
    - potato3732842 1y ago
      That's because the system was sold with a lie or has otherwise been co-opted with revisions over the years. It was supposed to be for hiring wernher von braun type world leading experts in their field. It was never supposed to be for hiring a bunch of code plumbers, which is what 99.9% of this industry consists of.
jppope 1y ago
I applaud the courage to call out this as a problem. With that said I believe that there is a lot more nuance on this issue than the article is willing to provide, or more importantly research needed to be done to be rigorous on this topic. There definitely is some truth here about the H1B1 program in the job market. There are some companies who are absolutely shameless abusers too. I think that all of us working in the industry know that a comp sci degree alone is not enough to provide the training for many of these roles. As an aside, I think there's another equally important issue that should also be raised along with employment. A large number of our graduate+ degrees in STEM go to foreign nationals. The issue is not providing education to foreign nationals in and of itself, but that many of these degrees (public schools) are funded by tax payers, and we are depriving our country of an educated population while educating citizens in other countries who compete with our country globally. Private schools can and should do whatever is in their mission, but public schools should have some accountability to our citizens and tax payers. We all have a right to get value for the money that we put into things like our public university system, which is supposed to be training future leaders of our country. Of course with that longwinded answer I have to say... Tech is like the weather, just wait for a minute its all going to change anyway, so don't stress all of this.
- garden_hermit 1y ago
  Generally speaking, foreign students subsidize public universities by paying full sticker price for tuition, whereas US students are either in state (paying less) or often receive scholarships and support. Foreign students are not stealing “slots” from Americans. If anything, their tuition dollars make more slots available.
  - v5v3 1y ago
    In some countries foreign students are charged a higher price for a course than domestic students.
    - newswasboring 1y ago
      That includes USA. Most programs charge foreign students more as they don't get any state subsidies.
nineplay 1y ago
"How the American engineering degree, sold as a solid ticket to the American dream, has become less solid for recent graduates trying to find that first job." As opposed to what? All the other recent graduates with non-engineering degrees who are drowning in job offers? It's tough out here for everyone. This kind of hyperbole doesn't help. "How the American engineering degree, sold as a solid ticket to the American dream" It wasn't "sold" as though there were some cigarette smoking ad men behind it. People went after _software_ engineering degrees when they saw a bunch of 20 year olds in Mountain View with 6 figure incomes. The other branches of engineering have always been hit or miss. And "American Dream" - really? Has anyone used that term unironically since The Great Gatsby came out?
- MangoToupe 1y ago
  > It wasn't "sold" as though there were some cigarette smoking ad men behind it. You must be joking, although I can't interpret the second half of the sentence. University is absolutely sold as a product giving you a chance at employment in the US, even if the "education" is completely unrelated to the work.
- davemp 1y ago
  > It wasn't "sold" as though there were some cigarette smoking ad men behind it. There was a whole “Learn to Code” pitch from politicians saying that literally anyone could have a good job if only they learned to code.
PeterStuer 1y ago
"We need to stop pretending that flooding the labor market with foreign workers is somehow beneficial to American students." I do not think anyone is making that point. Clearly a gated and scarce employee pool is always in the advantage of the employee. You can agree or not, but the point is expanded availability of highly skilled labor from CS Graduates benefits the US companies hiring them, not just by removing some scarcity in the supply, but also having an expanded talent pool increases quality available. From a geo political perspective, would you rather have these people working to build up US industry, or have them starting and staffing competition in their home countries? "Brain drain" fueled by unlimited reserve currency dollars is very real. Lastly, those non-US graduates pay a very hefty sum for the 'privilege' of attending school in the US. Having worked with academics from around the globe, including US, I can state with some certainty the US degree courses are not qualitatively very different from what is available elsewhere at a fraction of the cost (US education costs are insane!). But they do carry the implicit promise of an easyer way to higher paying US jobs. So all in all, everyone in the US benefits from the system, except the lower 66th percentile of native US CS graduates.
- potato3732842 1y ago
  > do not think anyone is making that point. There are a whole lot of weasels who are adding a bunch of filler words and alternate phrasing to stuff that amounts to something akin to that point or some point built around that core. >From a geo political perspective, would you rather have these people working to build up US industry, If it tears the nation apart what does it matter? >Lastly, those non-US graduates pay a very hefty sum for the 'privilege' of attending school in the US. First off, most H1B workers do not have american degrees so this blanket assertion is laughable on its face. Second, even when they do have US degrees enriches institutions and people that at best about half the country approves of and approximately nobody not getting paid by them approves of the economic model of. >except the lower 66th percentile of native US CS graduates. Now reconcile this with the prevailing HN wisdom that the american middle class ought to pay a lot of taxes to benefit the lower classes as is the case in europe. What makes one ok but not the other? This nation is in the shit is is because of you and people like you who adopt or condone policy positions based on something other than principals.
newswasboring 1y ago
> That's equal to 82% of our graduating class who are guaranteed jobs even before any Americans walk across the stage for their diploma. This is such a weird phrasing. These people are not "guaranteed" jobs. They get a job and then apply for a visa which is granted because they have offer letters. In fact the whole article reads like American government is somehow giving these people jobs rather than allowing them to work on jobs they have already gotten. The most uncharitable reading of this is usual racist dog whistle.
- intermerda 1y ago
  Top comment on that article > This is just so completely outrageous. > And Trump just approved another wave of Indians on H1B's for next year. They would rather be poor and underdeveloped than have immigrants start more than half of billion dollar+ startups. “If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you.” ― Lyndon B. Johnson
  - franktankbank 1y ago
    > half of billion dollar+ startups. Billion dollar raises, not billion dollar profitable business. What exactly are these startups doing besides mega grifting and creating more useless layers of tech?
    - shivasaxena 1y ago
      People said same thing about Uber not being profitable. While it was clear to people like Gurly that Uber is creating immense value for its owners.
fooker 1y ago
> That's equal to 82% of our graduating class who are guaranteed jobs ... Guaranteed jobs? Sir, this is not France ;)
xyst 1y ago
yup, trying to unionize with H1B workers nearly impossible as well as a majority of them feel this will threaten their sponsorship/visa. The wage suppression is real.
jltsiren 1y ago
A slightly different take: The key information is halfway down the page, in the figure that shows the number of new graduates and new temporary workers each year. The number of new temporary workers has been relatively stable, while the number of new graduates has been climbing steadily. There was a shortage of software developers in the 2010s. The industry hired more people from abroad than there were graduates from CS programs. Still, CS graduates had better job prospects than their peers in other fields. The market responded to the shortage by increasing the supply of CS graduates, and that increase in domestic supply kept entry-level wages from rising faster than inflation. The job market changed in the 2020s. A country with a more reactive immigration policy would have noticed the worsening job prospects of new graduates and routinely lowered the supply of new immigrant workers in that field. The US could not do that, as American legislators apparently don't believe in such central planning. The government can make employment-based immigration easier or harder overall, but it lacks convenient tools for targeted interventions in specific fields. People who chose CS when the job market was hot are now graduating in record numbers. You could say in retrospect that the market overreacted and allocated too much resources to software. And it's quite likely that the market will now overreact in the other direction, as it did after the dot-com bust. Immigration policy can help smoothen these market overreactions, as you can get immigrant workers much faster than new graduates. But that requires dedicated effort from the government.
- chii 1y ago
  > People who chose CS when the job market was hot and that is their own "fault" for chasing money. The top graduates will still get good outcomes. It's the mediocre money chasers who would do poorly in a down market. The exact same thing happened to the dotcom boom/bust. You'd think people would learn.
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quantum_state 1y ago
Alarming statistics … many big companies also set up so-called engineering centers outside of the US and ship IT works there, often sidelining talent they already have in the US. Combining these practices, it would not be surprising the same happened to manufacturing will happen to many other professions.
pcthrowaway 1y ago
> Let that sink in: Half of our computer programming graduates are not in full-time jobs within six months of graduation. In the supposed golden age of technology, when every company claims to be desperately seeking tech talent, half of our trained programmers still need work. Is this author suggesting that a CS degree is equivalent to programmer training?
ReptileMan 1y ago
Just price the H1B properly. 300K/year per visa from the company to the government adjusted for inflation. This will make sure that only the cream of the crop will come.
- franktankbank 1y ago
  Be careful what you wish for. H1B and other visas are fraught with kickback schemes. Upping the number might be just what's wanted by the current set of fraudsters.

s5300 1y ago

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rayiner 1y ago

I’ve been hearing about this for decades. It keeps happening because republicans need their cheap labor and democrats need foreign voters. The people in power have tremendous political incentives to keep the pipeline flowing.

bestouff 1y ago
Does this mean only foreigners aren't brainwashed enough to mostly vote Republican ?
- deleted 1y ago
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- blargthorwars 1y ago
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poulsbohemian 1y ago
Given that one must be a citizen to vote, this doesn’t appear to be the right angle through which to call out the Democratic Party. If you were to speak with Democratic Party leadership, I believe the emphasis would be on attractive talent from around the world to keep American businesses competitive. Certainly if there are problems with these visa programs, it’s worthwhile to bring them up to elected officials and push for changes.
- rayiner 1y ago
  H1Bs get citizenship, and they raise their children in their home cultures. My parents are citizens and have been voting for decades. But they still think and vote like Bangladeshis. I’m not saying it’s some written-out plan. But look at how left wing Indians and Indian politicians in the U.S. are compared to say German Americans. (Socialism was a founding principle of the modern Indian state.) People in the party are acting according to their incentives.
  - esseph 1y ago
    India is overwhelmingly conservative. March 1990 changed everything. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservatism_in_India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservatism_in_India
- deleted 1y ago
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FirmwareBurner 1y ago
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- danesparza 1y ago
  Look closer, or choose different friends. This is an extremely reductionist view of what's going on right now. If you don't see people in both parties working hard to try to shelter, protect and defend these people, you aren't looking hard enough.
- intermerda 1y ago
  > Where did you see that? On the news, I only see democrats crying "who's gonna mow my lawn" whenever Donald is deporting illegals, neve republicans. This is a brain rotten to the core on right wing propaganda. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/donald-trump-stephen-miller-washington-white-house-hotel-b2770228.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/donald-trump-stephen-mill... https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-u-turn-deporting-farm-215426920.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-u-turn-deporting-farm-21542... https://archive.ph/1Q4p9 https://archive.ph/1Q4p9
- pcthrowaway 1y ago
  I haven't seen any criticism of deportations from Democrats because "who's gonna mow my lawn". I'm sure it happens, but I haven't seen it. I've seen an endless feed of Democrats and people further left concerned about the human rights abuses happening right now with ICE and deportations Bold of you to assume any of these people have a lawn to mow.
delusional 1y ago
> democrats need foreign voters Is there any proof for this statement? Republicans want cheap labor, they'll tell you that themselves, but I don't believe the Democrats would ever say that they believe in labor immigration to "get more voters". That just sounds like a ludicrous conspiracy.
- rayiner 1y ago
  Have you forgotten the last 15 years of “demographics is destiny” and “coalition of the ascendant” rhetoric? The rising identity politics? All together with a strong shift in pro-immigration policy from the party since 2008? (In 2004, democrats and republicans had roughly similar views on immigration: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-democrats-became-stuck-on-immigration https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-democrats-became-st....)
  - delusional 1y ago
    I'm not American. This is the first time I'm hearing either "demographics is destiny" or "coalition of the ascendant". "Demographics is destiny" seems to be a quote from a french philosopher from the 1800s, while "coalition of the ascendant" seems to be a description of the coalition Obama sought to build in his second term, an idea swiftly dismantled in 2016. The articles I can find discussing these things don't contain any democrats scheming about using immigrants to overtake the republicans. The only people I find talking about how it will "estrange the republican party from these growing demographics" are republicans. I'm not going to claim that no democrat has ever considered that outcome, but I am going to propose that it seems more likely to me that if that were to happen it would be a result of politics they'd be in favor of anyway. In general, it's pretty popular to help people. I don't think republicans would disagree that part of their coalition is built on higher income individuals, which they hope to grow by raising incomes. They're not doing that as a sort of underhanded tactic, they believe income is good. In the same way I think the Obama democrats do believe in helping immigrants, and obviously that makes them more popular amongst immigrants. That's not a scheme, that's just a policy. I don't think this is nearly as clear cut as you believe it is.
esseph 1y ago
They can't vote in Federal elections if they're not citizens.
- rayiner 1y ago
  In practice, H1B is a pipeline to citizenship, not just for the worker but their immediate family and extended family (due to family sponsorship). One H1 visa to my dad resulted in seven additional Bangladeshis in the U.S. And my dad did not sponsor a fraction of the family members he could have. Moreover, foreign mindsets are durable over generations: https://www.sup.org/books/economics-and-finance/culture-transplant https://www.sup.org/books/economics-and-finance/culture-tran... ("In The Culture Transplant, Garett Jones documents the cultural foundations of cross-country income differences, showing that immigrants import cultural attitudes from their homelands—toward saving, toward trust, and toward the role of government—that persist for decades, and likely for centuries, in their new national homes. Full assimilation in a generation or two, Jones reports, is a myth.").
  - esseph 1y ago
    > "Moreover, foreign mindsets are durable over generation" Right, and most countries are very conservative compared to the US, in particular many of the countries that the average H1B holder is from. India, for example. That means Republican voters. The entire premise is flawed fearmongering.
    - rayiner 1y ago
      Anglo culture is distinctive both in its liberalism and its conservatism. My Bangladeshi family are well to the right of American republicans when it comes to say tattoos or divorce, but they don’t care about limited government or legal proceduralism. I don’t have to fear monger. The cake is already baked. David Shor estimates that Trump tied or narrowly won foreign-born voters. Mass immigration didn’t kill the GOP, but it changed what kind of conservative party could assemble a winning coalition. And it looks like more like Trump (or Bolsonaro or Modi) and less like Mitt Romney or George H.W. Bush. Hope Obama was worth it!

airocker 1y ago

[flagged]

airocker 1y ago
Conclusion The data points cited in the article are mostly accurate, based on available government reports (e.g., USCIS, ICE, NACE). However, the interpretations and causal claims are ideologically framed and often lack nuance: Sound in identifying employment and wage challenges for new CS graduates. Oversimplified in attributing these challenges mainly or solely to foreign workers. Questionable in presenting policy recommendations as the only “truth-based” solution. If you're looking for a deeper, balanced understanding, consider consulting: National Science Board’s Science & Engineering Indicators Brookings Institution or Cato Institute reports (for contrasting views) NACE and NCES for graduate outcomes and education data
meindnoch 1y ago
And? You want an applause or what?
- airocker 1y ago
  Just so others don’t have to do it. I did not think this post was hn worthy so wanted to save some time for others. Maybe hn needs to do it automatically
tomhow 1y ago
Please don’t do this on HN. Even before LLMs were commonplace we eschewed summaries or TL;DRs.
- airocker 1y ago
  Sure, but llm may be more unbiased and give high quality summary. But I won’t do it again, I am sure you have thought about it much more than I have.
  - tomhow 1y ago

N1H1L 1y ago

There are a lot of errors in that article. Like line 1, the idea that foreign students get jobs before Americans do. Quite the opposite in real life. Go to any school, and see the employment rates in that school for US vs foreign students. Also H1B pays FICA taxes, that exemption is only for OPT. The OPT exemption can be easily removed.

seanmcdirmid 1y ago
Grad students (foreign and non-foreign) also don't pay FICA (or at least, they didn't when I was in grad school). Not that it matters much, grad student pay is nothing to dream about.
carom 1y ago
That first point is not comparing students, it is saying that the H1B visas issued that year all have jobs lined up (which is a requirement of the visa). Those jobs are what the new graduates would normally be competing for.
- N1H1L 1y ago
  And you have to apply to get that job. And the vast majority of companies would prefer a US citizen or an LPR for that job, because there is no guarantee that you will get the visa approved.

tayo42 1y ago

>The percentage of computer science graduates ... For those who specialized in computer programming, Isn't computer programing all of computer science. This seems like a weird distinction to make? The job market just seems to suck, if it didnt i dont think things like this would come up. I dont think immigration is the reason for the job market sucking. theres no jobs to apply to, theres no jobs to take from americans in the first place

DaSHacka 1y ago
> I dont think immigration is the reason for the job market sucking. theres no jobs to apply to, theres no jobs to take from americans in the first place Are you sure about that? Microsoft recently laid off 9,000 American workers while applying for 14,000 H1B visa workers [0]. They are transparently offshoring jobs from Americans to foreign workers. [0] https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/microsoft-applied-to-fill-thousands-of-foreign-worker-positions-in-months-before-mass-layoffs/ar-AA1IfD1r https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/microsoft-applied-to...
- tayo42 1y ago
  That article says that isn't rellly accurate for Microsoft. But where are the job listings that h1b applicants are using. It seems like job availability is just down overall
Karliss 1y ago
Universities provide various specializations for the computer related programs: actual computer Science (math and algorithms with focus on research), computer networks and other IT infrastructure stuff, computer hardware, software engineering (the process of designing, architecting and managing the lifecycle of large scale software projects) for those that approach software like engineering project, and of course there is actual programming.
bregma 1y ago
> Isn't computer programing all of computer science. In the same way accountancy is all of math.

deleted 1y ago

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zer00eyz 1y ago

Soham got 5 jobs. More than 5 jobs... He kept them for a while too. We didn't lie to comp sci grads, they have the skills to DO the job, but the interview is a whole other skill that they have to learn. There is a gauntlet to be run of goofy interview questions and qualifiers. I dont know any one in the last few years who hasn't gone back to leetcode and the like to brush up if they needed to look. Then you get posts like this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35079183 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35079183 https://emaggiori.com/employed-in-tech-for-years-but-almost-never-worked/ https://emaggiori.com/employed-in-tech-for-years-but-almost-... Staff doing nothing or not pulling their weight is far more common than people think. Managers are resistant to firing staff, not because of HR, or emotional reasons. Rather many of them don't want to deal with the judgement of their peers (why did you make the bad hire to start with), and the judgement of their team/group. Office politics at the director level and above in a large organization is BRUTAL.

laluser 1y ago
Not a great comparison, but agree that it just takes passing some goofy interviews. That guy lied his way through all of his interviews.

bitmasher9 1y ago

I don’t understand why we care if foreign born individuals are coding out software. We all use foreign written code daily. Any student will look at the job prospects of their major before selecting it. We aren’t lying to them. I won’t feel bad for a student fresh out of college that “only” received a job offer for 95k, when that’s above the US median household income. I’m skeptical the lower job placement rate is due to H1B, and it might be more related to larger labor market trends.

azinman2 1y ago

“eliminate the STEM OPT extension” I won’t get into h1b which gets plenty of air time, but this is the first time I’ve ever heard anyone wanting to eliminate OPT. This is beyond idiotic. Foreigners come and get educated in the US; if we didn’t have OPT they’d have to go back to their home country and contribute there. Instead with OPT we give them a chance to integrate into American companies, making the US more competitive as a whole. This is a massive strategic advantage. Places like MIT/CalTech/CMU are heavily made up of foreigners. We need the best and brightest minds from the world; only pulling from 350M vs 8B is a giant mistake.

ACCount36 1y ago
One of the big advantages US has is that it's on the receiving end of brain drain. A lot of the best talent worldwide wants to go to US, learn in the US and work in the US.
corimaith 1y ago
More like they come to America because there aren't enough opportunities or good enough facilities back at home, get years of experience and knowledge, then go back home and start a billion dollar business that starts competing with said American companies they were just working for.
- azinman2 1y ago
  I’d love to see the data on this. There aren’t that many billion dollar businesses, period, especially compare to the number of people on OPT. If the US is a great place with more opportunity, then the pressure is to stay versus go back. When the US becomes anti-foreigner, then we all lose.
waitwhatwhoa 1y ago
The STEM OPT _extension_ is an additional year on top of the one year that all graduates get. I believe the article is arguing for getting rid of that extension, not all OPT.
- 1y ago

KingOfCoders 1y ago

It seems to miss foreign students?

ylow 1y ago

This is using statistics to tell a preconceived story. Underlying this a notion that foreign workers are simply “imported” like they are dug out of the ground or something. How do these STEM OPT people find jobs? Guess what. They interview like everyone else does. 1: Every big tech interview I have been in the visa status is not even a question in the interview process. There is just a simple gate that “can you legally work in the US”? The hiring committee is not even thinking about visa (that’s a HR problem) 2: Are there confounders in that foreign workers are less likely to negotiate? Absolutely. 3: are there confounders in that people who come to US for study are likely already a self selected bunch who are striving to succeed? What are the typical grade distributions between foreign STEM students and US STEM students? Is grade a confounding variable? What happens if we control for GPA? And finally does H1B abuse happen? Absolutely. There is a lot of nuance that are not captured by surface level statistics. But nuance does not make outrage.

delusional 1y ago
I think that nuance is fairly unwarranted when you observe the American system through the lens the laws ask you to view it through. The American H1B system isn't about importing foreign workers that do a good job, it's about importing foreign workers that do a job no American could do. The system demands you look for some American do do the job first, and only if you fail to find one can you import one from overseas. In that view, all the talk about GPA fall flat, because it doesn't matter if the foreign worker is better than an American worker, you are supposed to pick the American worker anyway.
- lazide 1y ago
  Bwaha. I have never met an H1B in tech that was doing a job that an American could not do. The ‘mandatory interviews for Americans’ are just transparent scams.
  - potato3732842 1y ago
    That's because the system was sold with a lie or has otherwise been co-opted with revisions over the years. It was supposed to be for hiring wernher von braun type world leading experts in their field. It was never supposed to be for hiring a bunch of code plumbers, which is what 99.9% of this industry consists of.

jppope 1y ago

I applaud the courage to call out this as a problem. With that said I believe that there is a lot more nuance on this issue than the article is willing to provide, or more importantly research needed to be done to be rigorous on this topic. There definitely is some truth here about the H1B1 program in the job market. There are some companies who are absolutely shameless abusers too. I think that all of us working in the industry know that a comp sci degree alone is not enough to provide the training for many of these roles. As an aside, I think there's another equally important issue that should also be raised along with employment. A large number of our graduate+ degrees in STEM go to foreign nationals. The issue is not providing education to foreign nationals in and of itself, but that many of these degrees (public schools) are funded by tax payers, and we are depriving our country of an educated population while educating citizens in other countries who compete with our country globally. Private schools can and should do whatever is in their mission, but public schools should have some accountability to our citizens and tax payers. We all have a right to get value for the money that we put into things like our public university system, which is supposed to be training future leaders of our country. Of course with that longwinded answer I have to say... Tech is like the weather, just wait for a minute its all going to change anyway, so don't stress all of this.

garden_hermit 1y ago
Generally speaking, foreign students subsidize public universities by paying full sticker price for tuition, whereas US students are either in state (paying less) or often receive scholarships and support. Foreign students are not stealing “slots” from Americans. If anything, their tuition dollars make more slots available.
- v5v3 1y ago
  In some countries foreign students are charged a higher price for a course than domestic students.
  - newswasboring 1y ago
    That includes USA. Most programs charge foreign students more as they don't get any state subsidies.

nineplay 1y ago

"How the American engineering degree, sold as a solid ticket to the American dream, has become less solid for recent graduates trying to find that first job." As opposed to what? All the other recent graduates with non-engineering degrees who are drowning in job offers? It's tough out here for everyone. This kind of hyperbole doesn't help. "How the American engineering degree, sold as a solid ticket to the American dream" It wasn't "sold" as though there were some cigarette smoking ad men behind it. People went after _software_ engineering degrees when they saw a bunch of 20 year olds in Mountain View with 6 figure incomes. The other branches of engineering have always been hit or miss. And "American Dream" - really? Has anyone used that term unironically since The Great Gatsby came out?

MangoToupe 1y ago
> It wasn't "sold" as though there were some cigarette smoking ad men behind it. You must be joking, although I can't interpret the second half of the sentence. University is absolutely sold as a product giving you a chance at employment in the US, even if the "education" is completely unrelated to the work.
davemp 1y ago
> It wasn't "sold" as though there were some cigarette smoking ad men behind it. There was a whole “Learn to Code” pitch from politicians saying that literally anyone could have a good job if only they learned to code.

PeterStuer 1y ago

"We need to stop pretending that flooding the labor market with foreign workers is somehow beneficial to American students." I do not think anyone is making that point. Clearly a gated and scarce employee pool is always in the advantage of the employee. You can agree or not, but the point is expanded availability of highly skilled labor from CS Graduates benefits the US companies hiring them, not just by removing some scarcity in the supply, but also having an expanded talent pool increases quality available. From a geo political perspective, would you rather have these people working to build up US industry, or have them starting and staffing competition in their home countries? "Brain drain" fueled by unlimited reserve currency dollars is very real. Lastly, those non-US graduates pay a very hefty sum for the 'privilege' of attending school in the US. Having worked with academics from around the globe, including US, I can state with some certainty the US degree courses are not qualitatively very different from what is available elsewhere at a fraction of the cost (US education costs are insane!). But they do carry the implicit promise of an easyer way to higher paying US jobs. So all in all, everyone in the US benefits from the system, except the lower 66th percentile of native US CS graduates.

potato3732842 1y ago
> do not think anyone is making that point. There are a whole lot of weasels who are adding a bunch of filler words and alternate phrasing to stuff that amounts to something akin to that point or some point built around that core. >From a geo political perspective, would you rather have these people working to build up US industry, If it tears the nation apart what does it matter? >Lastly, those non-US graduates pay a very hefty sum for the 'privilege' of attending school in the US. First off, most H1B workers do not have american degrees so this blanket assertion is laughable on its face. Second, even when they do have US degrees enriches institutions and people that at best about half the country approves of and approximately nobody not getting paid by them approves of the economic model of. >except the lower 66th percentile of native US CS graduates. Now reconcile this with the prevailing HN wisdom that the american middle class ought to pay a lot of taxes to benefit the lower classes as is the case in europe. What makes one ok but not the other? This nation is in the shit is is because of you and people like you who adopt or condone policy positions based on something other than principals.

newswasboring 1y ago

> That's equal to 82% of our graduating class who are guaranteed jobs even before any Americans walk across the stage for their diploma. This is such a weird phrasing. These people are not "guaranteed" jobs. They get a job and then apply for a visa which is granted because they have offer letters. In fact the whole article reads like American government is somehow giving these people jobs rather than allowing them to work on jobs they have already gotten. The most uncharitable reading of this is usual racist dog whistle.

intermerda 1y ago
Top comment on that article > This is just so completely outrageous. > And Trump just approved another wave of Indians on H1B's for next year. They would rather be poor and underdeveloped than have immigrants start more than half of billion dollar+ startups. “If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you.” ― Lyndon B. Johnson
- franktankbank 1y ago
  > half of billion dollar+ startups. Billion dollar raises, not billion dollar profitable business. What exactly are these startups doing besides mega grifting and creating more useless layers of tech?
  - shivasaxena 1y ago
    People said same thing about Uber not being profitable. While it was clear to people like Gurly that Uber is creating immense value for its owners.

fooker 1y ago

> That's equal to 82% of our graduating class who are guaranteed jobs ... Guaranteed jobs? Sir, this is not France ;)

xyst 1y ago

yup, trying to unionize with H1B workers nearly impossible as well as a majority of them feel this will threaten their sponsorship/visa. The wage suppression is real.

jltsiren 1y ago

A slightly different take: The key information is halfway down the page, in the figure that shows the number of new graduates and new temporary workers each year. The number of new temporary workers has been relatively stable, while the number of new graduates has been climbing steadily. There was a shortage of software developers in the 2010s. The industry hired more people from abroad than there were graduates from CS programs. Still, CS graduates had better job prospects than their peers in other fields. The market responded to the shortage by increasing the supply of CS graduates, and that increase in domestic supply kept entry-level wages from rising faster than inflation. The job market changed in the 2020s. A country with a more reactive immigration policy would have noticed the worsening job prospects of new graduates and routinely lowered the supply of new immigrant workers in that field. The US could not do that, as American legislators apparently don't believe in such central planning. The government can make employment-based immigration easier or harder overall, but it lacks convenient tools for targeted interventions in specific fields. People who chose CS when the job market was hot are now graduating in record numbers. You could say in retrospect that the market overreacted and allocated too much resources to software. And it's quite likely that the market will now overreact in the other direction, as it did after the dot-com bust. Immigration policy can help smoothen these market overreactions, as you can get immigrant workers much faster than new graduates. But that requires dedicated effort from the government.

chii 1y ago
> People who chose CS when the job market was hot and that is their own "fault" for chasing money. The top graduates will still get good outcomes. It's the mediocre money chasers who would do poorly in a down market. The exact same thing happened to the dotcom boom/bust. You'd think people would learn.

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

quantum_state 1y ago

Alarming statistics … many big companies also set up so-called engineering centers outside of the US and ship IT works there, often sidelining talent they already have in the US. Combining these practices, it would not be surprising the same happened to manufacturing will happen to many other professions.

pcthrowaway 1y ago

> Let that sink in: Half of our computer programming graduates are not in full-time jobs within six months of graduation. In the supposed golden age of technology, when every company claims to be desperately seeking tech talent, half of our trained programmers still need work. Is this author suggesting that a CS degree is equivalent to programmer training?

ReptileMan 1y ago

Just price the H1B properly. 300K/year per visa from the company to the government adjusted for inflation. This will make sure that only the cream of the crop will come.

franktankbank 1y ago
Be careful what you wish for. H1B and other visas are fraught with kickback schemes. Upping the number might be just what's wanted by the current set of fraudsters.