adventured

6 ms·

1.
by adventured 4d ago
As the breakneck growth slows, the multiples will compress, and the companies will pull back on spending accordingly as they watch their stocks decline and investors demand more conservative spending behavior. The Internet didn't stop
2.
by adventured 6d ago
There was a ~18 month period of time where prices went up 50-100% at stores like CVS and Walgreens. The large subscription price increases are merely matching the real inflation explosion we're seeing from the debasement of the USD due
3.
by adventured 6d ago
The cultural fervor they're groundswelling isn't a psyop. That part is already out of their control. It's an enormous mistake. Maybe once they've accomplished market capture via regulation they won't care that it&#x
4.
by adventured 8d ago
Billions of long-term users for the most important technology in human history isn't a premise of fake cash in a circular economy. You might as well pretend there's no money in search or social media. 1999. That Google, it has no
5.
by adventured 8d ago
It's not really: it means those out in front. OpenAI, Anthropic, China
6.
by adventured 8d ago
Samsung is now essentially tied for being the world's most profitable company with Nvidia ($62b operating profit last quarter, vs $63b for Nvidia). They're drowning in cash. They're doing the same thing Nvidia has been doing:
7.
by adventured 8d ago
Why hasn't Baidu taken over the world's search market? What moat does Google have that's so special in search? You need to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to scale globally in search. And you have to take the market awa
8.
by adventured 12d ago
They've fired up the same irrational hordes that brought us flat earthing, anti-vax, and 5G Covid. It's just another parade of extreme ignorance. And yes, the SF crowd is comically oblivious to what they're dealing with, ivor
9.
by adventured 12d ago
See: advertising & marketing. Or: political propaganda. Or: bumper stickers. Or political party emails / calls to action. Humans are constantly prompted by The Joneses and perceived authority figures (boss, religion, politics, peer
10.
by adventured 12d ago
Anthropic has the appearance/rep of being non-cooperative with the military industrial complex. OpenAI doesn't have that reputation. That's all.
11.
by adventured 15d ago
The US doesn't require that you lend it money, it possesses the global reserve currency. It'll take it from you via currency debasement. That's a world problem whether the world likes it or not. There is still no viable (real
12.
by adventured 15d ago
Oracle fits in Nvidia's pocket at this point: $67b sales, $22b op income. Vs of course Nvidia: $302b sales, $197b op income. Oracle was never as big of a deal as that brief market cap run implied. The herd pushed it up for no reason. T
13.
by adventured 15d ago
The US can safely reduce its deficit spending by $1 trillion and absolutely nothing big will happen. The US typically adds that much annual GDP every 16-24 months at this point. The notion that somehow the gigantic ~$31 trillion economy wil
14.
by adventured 15d ago
Actual supply hasn't done anything consequential. Extreme increases in generation + publishing are not occurring in a way that impacts the typical user. The typical TikTok user is not seeing a 10x or 100x increase in published tiktoks
15.
by adventured 15d ago
I believe you're spot on. We now have exceptionally capable local image generation models for example. Are the masses rushing to produce a thousand fold increase in the output of any sort of generative images? Not even in the slightest
16.
by adventured 16d ago
We already know the answer, it's identical to the answer for: what if everybody had UBI. Most of the population wouldn't do anything with it. They got 5g mainframes in the palm of their hands and they watch sports, play Candy Crus
17.
by adventured 22d ago
I use Fable for writing code and some planning. I use GPT for planning/roadmaps and code review, it checks Fable. I use Gemini for stray conversations. Gemini has a better conversational style than GPT, less robotic; it hallucinates mo
18.
by adventured 22d ago
There is drastically more power and profit in the software ultimately. Apple is in the software first, the hardware second. Everyone at Apple has been trained to understand this for decades, and Jobs pointed it out endlessly. Apple's r
19.
by adventured 22d ago
Assume a $800 billion valuation. $100 billion ad network. $30 billion op income. 26x price to op income ratio. It's right there for them to grab, or someone else to grab. Their valuation does make sense if you believe: 1) they can reta
20.
by adventured 22d ago
The good enough level isn't ever arriving. We're in the first or second inning for LLMs. They will rapidly subdivide in complexity, they will not stagnate in the next decade. Beyond the model, when would you freeze processor perfo
21.
by adventured 22d ago
The anecdote is likely a false rip of the actual story: [2017] Speaking at an event Tuesday, Scott Forstall, who lead Apple's iOS software division under Jobs, recounted the surprising history behind the company's first touchscree
22.
by adventured 23d ago
Most likely it'll bifurcate. The US will be (is) forced to work with everyone not named China or Russia, to ensure it can compete with China's concentrated industrial might. That means making iPhones in India, or Mexico, or Vietna
23.
by adventured 23d ago
They're trying to find a moat in the AI era, for their relatively gigantic news business (and they're among the few still standing giants in news). Most of these organizations are very scared of what AI might do to them.
24.
by adventured 23d ago
The best response is always: "That's not up to you." When people claim they have nothing to hide, always point out that's not up to their determination. That freaks them out, it disarms their shrink-from-confrontation mo
25.
by adventured 27d ago
There's nothing special about 'natural' intelligence as opposed to 'artificial' intelligence, such that we need to concern ourselves with anthropomorphizing mattering any longer. Those days are over. The age of the
26.
by adventured 27d ago
Microsoft's main business... is extracting money from the government. Please, elaborate on where Microsoft is getting a hundred billion dollars plus per year from the government. By an extreme margin Microsoft's main business is p
27.
by adventured 29d ago
OpenAI needs to immediately move to acquire Cerebras. Nvidia's extreme margin is the opportunity for OpenAI's cost reduction. Buying Cerebras would pay for itself and they should take all of its future production (after filling re
28.
by adventured 29d ago
Looking back nearly 80 years, what has been the limit to transistor demand so far? Unlimited. What has been the limit to electricity demand globally? Unlimited. We can't get enough and never will. Costs have to become pretty severe to
29.
by adventured 29d ago
Taalas will be one of the great disaster investments of the early AI era. It'll be a near total write-down. The absolute worst market time to etch a model to a chip is right now (very rapid iteration). There is no scenario where they c
30.
by adventured 1mo ago
$55 ($9.95 CD + $45 activation) in August 1996 = $116 today, per the BLS inflation adjustment calculator. Gold was ~$400 back in 1996. Now it's ~11 times that. An expensive game however you gib it.

More ›