7 ms·

Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

90 points by OJKoukaz 12y ago

skywhopper 12y ago
What's up with the font on this site? In Google Chrome on Windows 7 it's nearly unreadable. Most of the internal horizontal strokes are just missing from the letters.
- mark-r 12y ago
  Also using Google Chrome on Windows 7, and no problems here. Chrome reports the font as Open Sans, 14px.
- lucb1e 12y ago
  I haven't used Windows for close to a year, but last time I used Chrome on Windows 7 the font rendering was horrible more often than not. Especially blogs, they often want to have their own look with some web font (which then tells google exactly who is visiting the site -- but whatever). They always rendered horrible and I complained about it to a few sites, which then changed it, but complaining to individuals doesn't scale of course.
jsnk 12y ago
Repost from 18 hours ago (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7583256 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7583256)
- bsilvereagle 12y ago
  That's the fastest turn around I've seen.
- dang 12y ago
  I've buried this post as a dupe.
josephpmay 12y ago
Not including insurance was a mistake. The Honda Odyssey has some of the cheapest insurance of any car.
- slantyyz 12y ago
  >> The Honda Odyssey has some of the cheapest insurance of any car. That depends on where you live. I've been told that my insurance rates (clean record) are high for my 2005 Odyssey because of the area I live in (I live just outside of Toronto, Canada).
  - brk 12y ago
    Right, but the Odyssey would be cheaper to insure in your area than a Tesla (theoretically). Insurance costs are very localized, but for any 2 vehicles the coverage cost spread between them is probably comparable in any given region. EG: an Odyssey will always be cheaper to insure than a Model S in any specific region, BUT insuring an Odyssey in Toronto might be more expensive than insuring a Model S in Tulsa.
    - slantyyz 12y ago
      I wasn't disputing the Odyssey's insurance vs. a Tesla, but the claim that "The Honda Odyssey has some of the cheapest insurance of any car." I pay more for insurance than some people I know who drive newer, more expensive cars.
  - sureshv 12y ago
    High for just the Odyssey or higher for all cars in and around Toronto? Collision insurance is usually based on the cost of parts and service. I would be surprised if the Tesla came in cheaper.
    - slantyyz 12y ago
      For all cars, I would imagine. My original point wasn't so much that the Odyssey was cheaper than the Tesla for insurance, but a counterpoint to the idea that the Odyssey is one of the cheapest cars to insure around. I pay more than most of the people I know for insurance, and I have had a clean driving record for almost two decades, with no claims for over a decade. I'm also supposed to be in a lower risk category by driving a minivan and being over 40.
dangero 12y ago
I'm pretty skeptical about resale value on the Model S at 5 or more years out just because their newer models will have major technical advances and the cost of a battery replacement. It's hard to speculate on that right now since the car is too new.
- acgourley 12y ago
  That's an excellent point but I would just temper it with the fact EVs should have lower long term maintenance issues for all non-battery parts. As an aside, I wonder if in 5 years you will be able to upgrade into a more powerful battery.
  - dba7dba 12y ago
    Whenever I'm sitting around waiting for oil change/tuneup/etc for my 2 cars in the family, I am tempted to look into Tesla. Having to sacrifice a Sat/car every few months for oil change really bugs me. Of course oil change itself is quick and cheap, but it’s the time I have to spend. EDIT: I should've clarified that I don't spend a WHOLE Sat for a car oil change. But for a 30min work on the car, you have to go there, wait to drop off car, listen to dealership clerk going on and on about expensive 'preventive' repair I should get (any my family friend mechanic tells me none needed), wait a few hours (because of other customers at same dealership), and get a ride back dealership to pick up the car. That's like 2-5hrs. As for going to non-dealer mechanic, well it is hard to find a good mechanic you can really trust. And such mechanics are usually booked. On my very 1st car last oil change, I got an oil change at a shop I hadn't gone to before, for lack of time. Later I learned the mechanic had jammed the cap to the bottom of the motor oil tank at an odd angle and had just jammed it on, destroying the thread on the tank. One more oil change and it would've meant having to replace the motor oil tank.
    - ankzap 12y ago
      You should explore alternatives to where you get your oil change done. An oil change shouldn't take more than 15-30 minutes at a good local mechanic.
    - 12y ago
api 12y ago
In the long run EVs have the potential to be radically cheaper than gasoline cars: fewer moving parts, etc.
giarc 12y ago
Why exclude all North American manufacturers? I was hoping the author would address the exclusion.
- Deusdies 12y ago
  Well, generally the North American car manufacturers produce cars of much poorer quality compared to the Japanese, Korean, and European car makers.
  - encoderer 12y ago
    You're not looking at accurate data. Try again. And if it's anecdotal quality you're speaking of, try again there too. I drive a German car, I'm not an American car apologist, but there's no question that the "big 3" have stepped-up their game. Not to mention, all the Japanese, Korean and even some European cars you mention are actually built in the US.
  - runako 12y ago
    I think this is a dated perception. JD Power shows a fair showing of American cars in its 2013 initial quality study: http://autos.jdpower.com/ratings/quality/cars.htm http://autos.jdpower.com/ratings/quality/cars.htm
    - soperj 12y ago
      I've always found JD Power to be a bit biased towards American made cars. Maybe because he worked for Ford and GM, I don't know, but even at their worst, they always seemed to be featured by them.
      - gtaylor 12y ago
        I'm not sure about the American bias, as I see tons of non-US cars in the sedans list, but their truck ratings are a travesty: http://autos.jdpower.com/ratings/quality/trucks.htm http://autos.jdpower.com/ratings/quality/trucks.htm I have been utterly unimpressed with the Silverados and Avalanches. For that kind of money, I expect a lot more than fragile/cheap interiors (Silverado) and the crummy bed on the Avalanche.
electriclove 12y ago
Your Net values for the Ody Touring Elite don't add up. How is the Net for Year 1 for the Ody Elite $16,184? It lists Maintenance at $300, Fuel at $2727, and Depreciation at $10,500. That totals $13,527.
not_that_noob 12y ago
As much as I admire Elon and Tesla, Consumer Reports rated Audi clean diesel at a cheaper cost per mile than Tesla. So the comparison I'd really like to see is Tesla against the Audis.
- dmishe 12y ago
  What exactly did they measure for "cost per mile"? I have an audi tdi and it's a great machine for trips, but tesla is much more expensive up front :)
- rsync 12y ago
  What is the value of not participating in a retrograde technological movement ? What is the value of not having a car that looks brand new and modern with your eyes, and sounds like a chitty-chitty-bang-bang set piece with your ears ? I just got back from Zurich where I saw brand new MY 2014 A6 and A8 cars driving around ... with TDI ... and they sounded like props from an old railroad farce. (full disclosure - I own a gasoline powered A8 currently, so there's no hating going on here ... except against diesel)
  - not_that_noob 12y ago
    In the early days of the automobile, both electric and non-electric propulsion systems were actively researched and developed - see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_electric_vehicle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_electric_vehicle So Tesla stands as the most recent and the coolest of a long line of electric cars. Just as they have refined the concept of an electric automobile, the latest diesel technology that Audi is incorporating is a refined clean-buring diesel technology without the baggage of the old smokers. So I'm not sure which retrograde technological movement you have in mind.
- not_that_noob 12y ago
  My bad - I misremembered - this is the quote from CR: "When it comes to efficiency, the Tesla is a runaway. The A7 gets an impressive 28 mpg overall, but the Model S delivers the equivalent of 84 mpg. That translates into only 4.4 cents per mile for the Tesla (based on an electricity rate of 11 cents per kilowatt- hour) vs. 14.3 cents for the Audi (based on diesel costing $4.00 per gallon)." As you were. EDIT: Ok I now remember why I misremembered. The delta in operating cost is about 10 cents/mile. The delta in price is $18,755 (ignoring rebates, credits, etc.). So you would have to drive 187,550 miles for the Tesla to come out ahead. In other words, the TDI A7 is at a similar TCO to the Tesla, but with extended range and quick fueling.
justinph 12y ago
I'm surprised a Prius V was not included in this matrix. It would seem to fit favorably within the range of features the OP was looking for, but also is efficient, low maintenance, and safe. I love Tesla, but they are just not there yet on cost.
- r00fus 12y ago
  I'd second this, but as someone who loves hybrids/EVs, I am very disappointed that a minivan class hybrid doesn't exist in the US (it does in Japan: Toyota Estima Hybrid is apparently a hybrid Sienna). Was forced to buy a standard minivan (we chose Sienna) as the PriusV is too small for our needs.
lafar6502 12y ago
- How do you service your Tesla? Do you have to go to Tesla-authorized shop or can you do it in any workshop? How does it affect repair and maintenance costs if you have no alternatives? - What about the 'guaranteed' buyback option? I'd be afraid that a buyback will be the only option to sell your old Tesla, because they won't be re-sellable on a free market without a costly hw/sw upgrade that can be done ONLY by Tesla. - There's no way to reduce your costs by using third party replacement parts or batteries. - A single failure can ruin your ROI calculations because the repair costs are hard to predict. - The market for used Teslas is limited to areas where the charging network is available
- takeda 12y ago
  > How do you service your Tesla? Do you have to go to Tesla-authorized shop or can you do it in any workshop? How does it affect repair and maintenance costs if you have no alternatives? There's not much to service, and normally you should do it once a year. The mechanics currently don't have schematics for Model S so it probably feels better to have it fixed at the company. I would imagine that you could get brakes replaced at your local mechanic, but I can't think of anything else they could do with it. For example Tesla doesn't even have ODB-II port for diagnostics (it was recently revealed that instead of CanBus they use Ethernet). Things like that make the car is very different and the mechanic might know less about the car than yourself.
  - manacit 12y ago
    It was recently revealed that instead of CanBus they use Ethernet If you're referring to the thread on teslamotorsclub.com[1], they are not using Ethernet for any sort of communication aside from infotainment and there is definitely a CAN bus[2]. There's been speculation that UDP broadcasts from the CAN bus are carried over that network as well, but it's almost certainly used for displaying information and informing various non-essential systems. [1]: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/28185-Successful-connection-on-the-Model-S-internal-Ethernet-network http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/28185-Successf... [2]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7535589 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7535589
  - 12y ago
tasty_freeze 12y ago
First: "I'd only purchased 3 cars before in my life. A Toyota Camry, that I drove for 12 years. ... A Honda Odyssey, that we had owned for 6 years. And a Nissan Leaf, that we had owned for 3 years. " Then: "The RAV4 EV, which we had just purchased, decimated the pack." These two statements aren't compatible. Or somehow I am repeatedly misreading what he is saying.
js2 12y ago
Just to throw some maintenance numbers out there since I happen to own a 2003 Odyssey with over 170k miles and I've kept track of the costs in a spreadsheet. So far I've spent just under $10k in maintenance. The big annoying charge was ~ $4200 at 110k miles in 2010. The transmission failed, so this charge was for a Honda remanufactured transmission and PCM, plus the 105k maintenance (new timing belt). The other significant charges are brakes and tires. It's almost $1k to replace the tires and brake rotors, which on this vehicle have been around every 50k miles. SWAG at fuel costs: 170k / 20 mpg * $3 ~ $25k.
- mrfusion 12y ago
  Isn't that early for the transmission to fail?
  - dnissley 12y ago
    Not for that generation of Odyssey. My parents have one and the transmission just had to have major work at around ~130k.
  - js2 12y ago
    Yes, but not uncommon for that generation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Odyssey_(North_America)#Transmission_issues http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Odyssey_(North_America)#T... I probably won't purchase a Honda again.
    - anonhondaowner 12y ago
      Yikes. Do you think the 2014's are any better? I wonder if I can extend my warranty beyond 100K?
- southphillyman 12y ago
  These are dealership prices I assume. Warrantied work at a third party repair shop would have probably been almost half as expensive. $1K to replace tires and brakes on a honda? Sheesh Credentials: Owner of a 2002 Honda with 210K miles on it currently.
stretchwithme 12y ago
I plugged some more realistic values into Tesla's TCO page and it still is way more expensive than what the 14 year old Toyota I drive :-) http://www.teslamotors.com/true-cost-of-ownership
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
anxman 12y ago
As a 2013 Model S owner, even I am skeptical of the OP's calculation. The big "what if", as mentioned by other posters, is the depreciation value of the vehicle. EV vehicles typically depreciate more quickly than ICE vehicles and we don't have enough trailing sales data to know appropriate numbers yet. That being said, I love everything about Tesla and even if the car depreciates more quickly than a Mercedes or BMW, I'd still be happy with it.
jstultz 12y ago
I'm skeptical of his estimated electricity cost; as a Bay Area resident, $0.12/kwh seemed low, so at first I thought he might be in an area of the country with lower energy costs, but he states he's actually in Silicon Valley. I'm not sure how his particular usage and rates compare, but the rates for my most recent PG&E bill are as follows: $0.13627 for the first 487.20 kWh $0.15491 for the next 146.6 kWh $0.31949 for the next 340.9 kWh and then up. In my area, according to my bill, average household usage (for the past month) is 400kWh, and 250kWh for "efficient homes." I'd imagine average use is higher in the summer months due to air conditioning, etc, and higher in the winter months due to heating and lighting. So, right off the bat, $0.12/kWh is low, but perhaps rates were a bit lower when he did this analysis, or he lives in an area with cheaper rates? But let's assume that he's an efficient user of electricity, and uses 250 kWh/month for things aside from the car. He estimated 15k miles per year, at 3 miles/kWh, that's 416 kWh per month, which works out to roughlly $65.50/month, or $785/year, not $600. If we instead assume he's an average user in a home that's not "efficient", it goes way up to roughly $92/month, or about $1100/year. Obviously I don't know this person's exact rates for electricity, or his usage, and it may be the case that there are credits associated with having an electric car that can bring his average rates down or prevent him from going into the higher tiers (as he said, he could often charge for free at work), but regardless an estimate of $0.12/kWh seems strikingly low. I'm sure there are areas of the country where that's reasonable, or even high, but I don't think the Bay Area is one of them. Of all the cost analyses of Tesla ownership that I've seen (admittedly few), I have yet to see one that attempts to take into account the higher marginal electricity cost associated with using significantly more electricity.
- stcredzero 12y ago
  I'm skeptical of his estimated electricity cost; as a Bay Area resident, $0.12/kwh seemed low, so at first I thought he might be in an area of the country with lower energy costs, but he states he's actually in Silicon Valley. Maybe he lives in Alameda?
  - jstultz 12y ago
    Do you mean Alameda county, or actually on Alameda, the island? If the former, I live in Alameda county, so that wouldn't explain it. If Alameda the island, why would costs be lower there? (honest question)
deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
meisterbrendan 12y ago
As a potential Model X buyer, I hate the idea of those doors. I currently drive a Subaru Outback and would be replacing it with a Model X so I could cart myself and some friends for weekend skiing or surfing trips. Unless I'm missing something, the gullwing doors preclude a roof rack, which is a deal breaker for me.
analyst74 12y ago
I've also been very interested in true ownership cost of cars, and what I noticed is that for new cars, cost of depreciation overshadows all other costs combined for the first 2~3 years, longer for luxury brands. So there is no point calculating the TCO of new car over more than 3 years, because if you are OK driving an old car, it's always much cheaper to buy used.
pjschlic 12y ago
Am I missing something here? I tried to use his number to run a net present value assessment of a few example cars and came up with wildly different numbers of NPV. I think a Tesla is cool, but if you are trying to save money by buying a 93k Tesla rather than a 50k BMW, you might not be saving all you think you are (assuming a 3% depreciation factor for future money, I didn't see what he was using, looking only at the year 8 when the car is sold back): Tesla S85: [year one] 93,970+8222+1170 [Tax break] -(10000/1.03) [resale] -(30,160/(1.03^8)) [electricity and maintenance] +(600/1.03)+(1900/1.03)+(600/1.03^2)+(650/1.03^3)+(650/1.03^4)+(1300/1.03^5)+(1300/1.03^6)+(1350/1.03^7)+(1350/1.03^8) = -78383 NPV BMW 382d (ICE with greatest depreciation / maintenance): [Year one] 50000+4480+1200 [Resale] -(15000/(1.03^8)) [Gas and maintenance] +(1594/1.03)+(1631/1.03^2)+(1669/1.03^3)+(1706/1.03^4)+(2288/1.03^5)+(4327/1.03^6)+(2365/1.03^7)+(2404/1.03^8) = -59385 NPV Did I make a mistake here?

90 points by OJKoukaz 12y ago

What's up with the font on this site? In Google Chrome on Windows 7 it's nearly unreadable. Most of the internal horizontal strokes are just missing from the letters.

mark-r 12y ago
Also using Google Chrome on Windows 7, and no problems here. Chrome reports the font as Open Sans, 14px.
lucb1e 12y ago
I haven't used Windows for close to a year, but last time I used Chrome on Windows 7 the font rendering was horrible more often than not. Especially blogs, they often want to have their own look with some web font (which then tells google exactly who is visiting the site -- but whatever). They always rendered horrible and I complained about it to a few sites, which then changed it, but complaining to individuals doesn't scale of course.

jsnk 12y ago

Repost from 18 hours ago (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7583256 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7583256)

bsilvereagle 12y ago
That's the fastest turn around I've seen.
dang 12y ago
I've buried this post as a dupe.

josephpmay 12y ago

Not including insurance was a mistake. The Honda Odyssey has some of the cheapest insurance of any car.

slantyyz 12y ago
>> The Honda Odyssey has some of the cheapest insurance of any car. That depends on where you live. I've been told that my insurance rates (clean record) are high for my 2005 Odyssey because of the area I live in (I live just outside of Toronto, Canada).
- brk 12y ago
  Right, but the Odyssey would be cheaper to insure in your area than a Tesla (theoretically). Insurance costs are very localized, but for any 2 vehicles the coverage cost spread between them is probably comparable in any given region. EG: an Odyssey will always be cheaper to insure than a Model S in any specific region, BUT insuring an Odyssey in Toronto might be more expensive than insuring a Model S in Tulsa.
  - slantyyz 12y ago
    I wasn't disputing the Odyssey's insurance vs. a Tesla, but the claim that "The Honda Odyssey has some of the cheapest insurance of any car." I pay more for insurance than some people I know who drive newer, more expensive cars.
- sureshv 12y ago
  High for just the Odyssey or higher for all cars in and around Toronto? Collision insurance is usually based on the cost of parts and service. I would be surprised if the Tesla came in cheaper.
  - slantyyz 12y ago
    For all cars, I would imagine. My original point wasn't so much that the Odyssey was cheaper than the Tesla for insurance, but a counterpoint to the idea that the Odyssey is one of the cheapest cars to insure around. I pay more than most of the people I know for insurance, and I have had a clean driving record for almost two decades, with no claims for over a decade. I'm also supposed to be in a lower risk category by driving a minivan and being over 40.

dangero 12y ago

I'm pretty skeptical about resale value on the Model S at 5 or more years out just because their newer models will have major technical advances and the cost of a battery replacement. It's hard to speculate on that right now since the car is too new.

acgourley 12y ago
That's an excellent point but I would just temper it with the fact EVs should have lower long term maintenance issues for all non-battery parts. As an aside, I wonder if in 5 years you will be able to upgrade into a more powerful battery.
- dba7dba 12y ago
  Whenever I'm sitting around waiting for oil change/tuneup/etc for my 2 cars in the family, I am tempted to look into Tesla. Having to sacrifice a Sat/car every few months for oil change really bugs me. Of course oil change itself is quick and cheap, but it’s the time I have to spend. EDIT: I should've clarified that I don't spend a WHOLE Sat for a car oil change. But for a 30min work on the car, you have to go there, wait to drop off car, listen to dealership clerk going on and on about expensive 'preventive' repair I should get (any my family friend mechanic tells me none needed), wait a few hours (because of other customers at same dealership), and get a ride back dealership to pick up the car. That's like 2-5hrs. As for going to non-dealer mechanic, well it is hard to find a good mechanic you can really trust. And such mechanics are usually booked. On my very 1st car last oil change, I got an oil change at a shop I hadn't gone to before, for lack of time. Later I learned the mechanic had jammed the cap to the bottom of the motor oil tank at an odd angle and had just jammed it on, destroying the thread on the tank. One more oil change and it would've meant having to replace the motor oil tank.
  - ankzap 12y ago
    You should explore alternatives to where you get your oil change done. An oil change shouldn't take more than 15-30 minutes at a good local mechanic.
  - 12y ago

api 12y ago

In the long run EVs have the potential to be radically cheaper than gasoline cars: fewer moving parts, etc.

giarc 12y ago

Why exclude all North American manufacturers? I was hoping the author would address the exclusion.

Deusdies 12y ago
Well, generally the North American car manufacturers produce cars of much poorer quality compared to the Japanese, Korean, and European car makers.
- encoderer 12y ago
  You're not looking at accurate data. Try again. And if it's anecdotal quality you're speaking of, try again there too. I drive a German car, I'm not an American car apologist, but there's no question that the "big 3" have stepped-up their game. Not to mention, all the Japanese, Korean and even some European cars you mention are actually built in the US.
- runako 12y ago
  I think this is a dated perception. JD Power shows a fair showing of American cars in its 2013 initial quality study: http://autos.jdpower.com/ratings/quality/cars.htm http://autos.jdpower.com/ratings/quality/cars.htm
  - soperj 12y ago
    I've always found JD Power to be a bit biased towards American made cars. Maybe because he worked for Ford and GM, I don't know, but even at their worst, they always seemed to be featured by them.
    - gtaylor 12y ago
      I'm not sure about the American bias, as I see tons of non-US cars in the sedans list, but their truck ratings are a travesty: http://autos.jdpower.com/ratings/quality/trucks.htm http://autos.jdpower.com/ratings/quality/trucks.htm I have been utterly unimpressed with the Silverados and Avalanches. For that kind of money, I expect a lot more than fragile/cheap interiors (Silverado) and the crummy bed on the Avalanche.

electriclove 12y ago

Your Net values for the Ody Touring Elite don't add up. How is the Net for Year 1 for the Ody Elite $16,184? It lists Maintenance at $300, Fuel at $2727, and Depreciation at $10,500. That totals $13,527.

not_that_noob 12y ago

As much as I admire Elon and Tesla, Consumer Reports rated Audi clean diesel at a cheaper cost per mile than Tesla. So the comparison I'd really like to see is Tesla against the Audis.

dmishe 12y ago
What exactly did they measure for "cost per mile"? I have an audi tdi and it's a great machine for trips, but tesla is much more expensive up front :)
rsync 12y ago
What is the value of not participating in a retrograde technological movement ? What is the value of not having a car that looks brand new and modern with your eyes, and sounds like a chitty-chitty-bang-bang set piece with your ears ? I just got back from Zurich where I saw brand new MY 2014 A6 and A8 cars driving around ... with TDI ... and they sounded like props from an old railroad farce. (full disclosure - I own a gasoline powered A8 currently, so there's no hating going on here ... except against diesel)
- not_that_noob 12y ago
  In the early days of the automobile, both electric and non-electric propulsion systems were actively researched and developed - see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_electric_vehicle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_electric_vehicle So Tesla stands as the most recent and the coolest of a long line of electric cars. Just as they have refined the concept of an electric automobile, the latest diesel technology that Audi is incorporating is a refined clean-buring diesel technology without the baggage of the old smokers. So I'm not sure which retrograde technological movement you have in mind.
not_that_noob 12y ago
My bad - I misremembered - this is the quote from CR: "When it comes to efficiency, the Tesla is a runaway. The A7 gets an impressive 28 mpg overall, but the Model S delivers the equivalent of 84 mpg. That translates into only 4.4 cents per mile for the Tesla (based on an electricity rate of 11 cents per kilowatt- hour) vs. 14.3 cents for the Audi (based on diesel costing $4.00 per gallon)." As you were. EDIT: Ok I now remember why I misremembered. The delta in operating cost is about 10 cents/mile. The delta in price is $18,755 (ignoring rebates, credits, etc.). So you would have to drive 187,550 miles for the Tesla to come out ahead. In other words, the TDI A7 is at a similar TCO to the Tesla, but with extended range and quick fueling.

justinph 12y ago

I'm surprised a Prius V was not included in this matrix. It would seem to fit favorably within the range of features the OP was looking for, but also is efficient, low maintenance, and safe. I love Tesla, but they are just not there yet on cost.

r00fus 12y ago
I'd second this, but as someone who loves hybrids/EVs, I am very disappointed that a minivan class hybrid doesn't exist in the US (it does in Japan: Toyota Estima Hybrid is apparently a hybrid Sienna). Was forced to buy a standard minivan (we chose Sienna) as the PriusV is too small for our needs.

lafar6502 12y ago

- How do you service your Tesla? Do you have to go to Tesla-authorized shop or can you do it in any workshop? How does it affect repair and maintenance costs if you have no alternatives? - What about the 'guaranteed' buyback option? I'd be afraid that a buyback will be the only option to sell your old Tesla, because they won't be re-sellable on a free market without a costly hw/sw upgrade that can be done ONLY by Tesla. - There's no way to reduce your costs by using third party replacement parts or batteries. - A single failure can ruin your ROI calculations because the repair costs are hard to predict. - The market for used Teslas is limited to areas where the charging network is available

takeda 12y ago
> How do you service your Tesla? Do you have to go to Tesla-authorized shop or can you do it in any workshop? How does it affect repair and maintenance costs if you have no alternatives? There's not much to service, and normally you should do it once a year. The mechanics currently don't have schematics for Model S so it probably feels better to have it fixed at the company. I would imagine that you could get brakes replaced at your local mechanic, but I can't think of anything else they could do with it. For example Tesla doesn't even have ODB-II port for diagnostics (it was recently revealed that instead of CanBus they use Ethernet). Things like that make the car is very different and the mechanic might know less about the car than yourself.
- manacit 12y ago
  It was recently revealed that instead of CanBus they use Ethernet If you're referring to the thread on teslamotorsclub.com[1], they are not using Ethernet for any sort of communication aside from infotainment and there is definitely a CAN bus[2]. There's been speculation that UDP broadcasts from the CAN bus are carried over that network as well, but it's almost certainly used for displaying information and informing various non-essential systems. [1]: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/28185-Successful-connection-on-the-Model-S-internal-Ethernet-network http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/28185-Successf... [2]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7535589 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7535589
- 12y ago

tasty_freeze 12y ago

First: "I'd only purchased 3 cars before in my life. A Toyota Camry, that I drove for 12 years. ... A Honda Odyssey, that we had owned for 6 years. And a Nissan Leaf, that we had owned for 3 years. " Then: "The RAV4 EV, which we had just purchased, decimated the pack." These two statements aren't compatible. Or somehow I am repeatedly misreading what he is saying.

js2 12y ago

Just to throw some maintenance numbers out there since I happen to own a 2003 Odyssey with over 170k miles and I've kept track of the costs in a spreadsheet. So far I've spent just under $10k in maintenance. The big annoying charge was ~ $4200 at 110k miles in 2010. The transmission failed, so this charge was for a Honda remanufactured transmission and PCM, plus the 105k maintenance (new timing belt). The other significant charges are brakes and tires. It's almost $1k to replace the tires and brake rotors, which on this vehicle have been around every 50k miles. SWAG at fuel costs: 170k / 20 mpg * $3 ~ $25k.

mrfusion 12y ago
Isn't that early for the transmission to fail?
- dnissley 12y ago
  Not for that generation of Odyssey. My parents have one and the transmission just had to have major work at around ~130k.
- js2 12y ago
  Yes, but not uncommon for that generation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Odyssey_(North_America)#Transmission_issues http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Odyssey_(North_America)#T... I probably won't purchase a Honda again.
  - anonhondaowner 12y ago
    Yikes. Do you think the 2014's are any better? I wonder if I can extend my warranty beyond 100K?
southphillyman 12y ago
These are dealership prices I assume. Warrantied work at a third party repair shop would have probably been almost half as expensive. $1K to replace tires and brakes on a honda? Sheesh Credentials: Owner of a 2002 Honda with 210K miles on it currently.

stretchwithme 12y ago

I plugged some more realistic values into Tesla's TCO page and it still is way more expensive than what the 14 year old Toyota I drive :-) http://www.teslamotors.com/true-cost-of-ownership

deleted 12y ago
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anxman 12y ago

As a 2013 Model S owner, even I am skeptical of the OP's calculation. The big "what if", as mentioned by other posters, is the depreciation value of the vehicle. EV vehicles typically depreciate more quickly than ICE vehicles and we don't have enough trailing sales data to know appropriate numbers yet. That being said, I love everything about Tesla and even if the car depreciates more quickly than a Mercedes or BMW, I'd still be happy with it.

jstultz 12y ago

I'm skeptical of his estimated electricity cost; as a Bay Area resident, $0.12/kwh seemed low, so at first I thought he might be in an area of the country with lower energy costs, but he states he's actually in Silicon Valley. I'm not sure how his particular usage and rates compare, but the rates for my most recent PG&E bill are as follows: $0.13627 for the first 487.20 kWh $0.15491 for the next 146.6 kWh $0.31949 for the next 340.9 kWh and then up. In my area, according to my bill, average household usage (for the past month) is 400kWh, and 250kWh for "efficient homes." I'd imagine average use is higher in the summer months due to air conditioning, etc, and higher in the winter months due to heating and lighting. So, right off the bat, $0.12/kWh is low, but perhaps rates were a bit lower when he did this analysis, or he lives in an area with cheaper rates? But let's assume that he's an efficient user of electricity, and uses 250 kWh/month for things aside from the car. He estimated 15k miles per year, at 3 miles/kWh, that's 416 kWh per month, which works out to roughlly $65.50/month, or $785/year, not $600. If we instead assume he's an average user in a home that's not "efficient", it goes way up to roughly $92/month, or about $1100/year. Obviously I don't know this person's exact rates for electricity, or his usage, and it may be the case that there are credits associated with having an electric car that can bring his average rates down or prevent him from going into the higher tiers (as he said, he could often charge for free at work), but regardless an estimate of $0.12/kWh seems strikingly low. I'm sure there are areas of the country where that's reasonable, or even high, but I don't think the Bay Area is one of them. Of all the cost analyses of Tesla ownership that I've seen (admittedly few), I have yet to see one that attempts to take into account the higher marginal electricity cost associated with using significantly more electricity.

stcredzero 12y ago
I'm skeptical of his estimated electricity cost; as a Bay Area resident, $0.12/kwh seemed low, so at first I thought he might be in an area of the country with lower energy costs, but he states he's actually in Silicon Valley. Maybe he lives in Alameda?
- jstultz 12y ago
  Do you mean Alameda county, or actually on Alameda, the island? If the former, I live in Alameda county, so that wouldn't explain it. If Alameda the island, why would costs be lower there? (honest question)

deleted 12y ago

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meisterbrendan 12y ago

As a potential Model X buyer, I hate the idea of those doors. I currently drive a Subaru Outback and would be replacing it with a Model X so I could cart myself and some friends for weekend skiing or surfing trips. Unless I'm missing something, the gullwing doors preclude a roof rack, which is a deal breaker for me.

analyst74 12y ago

I've also been very interested in true ownership cost of cars, and what I noticed is that for new cars, cost of depreciation overshadows all other costs combined for the first 2~3 years, longer for luxury brands. So there is no point calculating the TCO of new car over more than 3 years, because if you are OK driving an old car, it's always much cheaper to buy used.

pjschlic 12y ago

Am I missing something here? I tried to use his number to run a net present value assessment of a few example cars and came up with wildly different numbers of NPV. I think a Tesla is cool, but if you are trying to save money by buying a 93k Tesla rather than a 50k BMW, you might not be saving all you think you are (assuming a 3% depreciation factor for future money, I didn't see what he was using, looking only at the year 8 when the car is sold back): Tesla S85: [year one] 93,970+8222+1170 [Tax break] -(10000/1.03) [resale] -(30,160/(1.03^8)) [electricity and maintenance] +(600/1.03)+(1900/1.03)+(600/1.03^2)+(650/1.03^3)+(650/1.03^4)+(1300/1.03^5)+(1300/1.03^6)+(1350/1.03^7)+(1350/1.03^8) = -78383 NPV BMW 382d (ICE with greatest depreciation / maintenance): [Year one] 50000+4480+1200 [Resale] -(15000/(1.03^8)) [Gas and maintenance] +(1594/1.03)+(1631/1.03^2)+(1669/1.03^3)+(1706/1.03^4)+(2288/1.03^5)+(4327/1.03^6)+(2365/1.03^7)+(2404/1.03^8) = -59385 NPV Did I make a mistake here?