11 ms·

Climate change affects geographies unequally. Seems like Europe and the tropics have been the first to suffer, year after year, and with the UK losing that warm

Climate change affects geographies unequally. Seems like Europe and the tropics have been the first to suffer, year after year, and with the UK losing that warm current in ~47 years, can't help but wonder what is on European minds.

andai 1mo ago
>with the UK losing that warm current in ~47 years What's that going to look like?
- bestouff 1mo ago
  Very hot in summer, very cold in winter.
- afavour 1mo ago
  People might be ice skating on the Thames again.
- AngryData 1mo ago
  Significantly colder in the winter. Im not sure how much it would change summer temps though, it could just affect the amount of rain.
- kuerbel 1mo ago
  Best article I know about this topic is: https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/amoc-explainer/index.html https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/amoc-explainer/index.htm...
- pvaldes 1mo ago
  >with the UK losing that warm current in ~47 years >> What's that going to look like? There is a very graphic way to understand the problem. Some cities in Canada are Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Quebec, Winnipeg or Regina. London and Berlin are closer to the North Pole that any of these ----------------------- Minimum temperature registered in London -17 Celsius. In Quebec and Montreal: -36 and -37.8 Celsius. Berlin is a little closer than London to the North Pole but also more continental, so more like Regina in that sense. Berlin lowest temperature registered is -15 Celsius, and in Regina: -40 Celsius ... And Edinburgh is closer to the North pole than any of these, and a little Northern than Manitoba, where reaching -40 Celsius a few nights is expected each year, and more than 30 Celsius in the summer is normal.
RobotToaster 1mo ago
> with the UK losing that warm current in ~47 years Guess it will cancel out the increased temperature?
- undersuit 1mo ago
  The AMOC delivers warm air year round, it cools the UK from the hotter southern air during the summer.
dgellow 1mo ago
> can't help but wonder what is on European minds The main thing I have in mind is that human civilization is completely fucked. What is needed to ensure things aren’t too horrible in the next century is so drastic and requires such a global coordinated effort that will never happen. There is no technology or super authority that will magically save us from a climate catastrophe this century. Given the vast majority of the world population still see vegetarianism as a joke and not a necessity, and developed countries are ready to sacrifice pretty much everything to the AI compute gods we are truly fucked
- netsharc 1mo ago
  Yeah, conflict is guaranteed. China will probably invade Russia and secure Lake Baikal and vast areas of Siberia. Europe might start shooting at "smugglers" earnestly (sorry to the "collateral damage"). I guess Eric or Barron will follow Project 2025 Edition 10's guideline and invade Greenland to secure their water for USA. And Canada's favorable climate?
- H4cks0r1337 1mo ago
  >the vast majority of the world population still see vegetarianism as a joke and not a necessity I'm pretty convinced that lots of people would be willing to make sacrifices. But not while Mark Zuckerberg is allowed to feed his Angus beef Macadamia nuts on Hawaii and all the invitees fly in separate private jets to COP26 instead of making it an online event. The message of "sacrifice for thee, but not for me!" should not be underestimated here.
  - dgellow 1mo ago
    You can only control your own actions. Reducing your meat consumption by like 80% is very low effort. It’s honestly ridiculous that still has to be argued about
    - abroszka33 1mo ago
      Why would I reduce it? Not going to eat less meat so that Zuck can keep sailing on his mega yacht.
kvgr 1mo ago
Well in my mind is no one else cares and the EU is holier than pope. We are destroying our economy for promile of world polution and are even shamed for using AC.
- Hackbraten 1mo ago
  This narrative is dangerous. If everyone points to their own limited influence and points fingers at the rest of the world, no one is going to act.
  - kergonath 1mo ago
    It’s the "it’s real, but we cannot do anything about it" rung on the climate denialist ladder. Yes, it is dangerous. It is also mainstream. There are several examples in this thread.
    - kvgr 1mo ago
      We are focusing on wrong things. Nuclear and off coal/gas should have been priority for last 50 years. And should be priority next 50. But Russian propaganda entrenched in spy infested austria and germany forces cheap gas upon us… and now we have to pay the price.
      - kergonath 1mo ago
        > Nuclear and off coal/gas should have been priority for last 50 years. No argument from me. It would not have completely saved us but we’d be in a better position now. The absolute priority should be to avoid burning fossil fuels for energy. > But Russian propaganda entrenched in spy infested austria and germany forces cheap gas upon us Indeed. Germany’s energy policy was a huge risk and set Europe back. I am not sure whether Schröder was a useful idiot or a willing pawn, but the fact that there was no reckoning is very disappointing. And all of Merkel’s balancing act came to naught anyway. So much time wasted…
  - Jensson 1mo ago
    Europe is already acting, its the rest of the world that isn't.
deleted 1mo ago
[deleted]
gib444 1mo ago
> but wonder what is on European minds UK here. It really feels like this year has been a massive wake-up call, a follow-up to the one of 2022 (and 2018, 2019, 2021...) Some fire services have had their busiest months on record this year. In an extraordinary (and controversial) move, they convinced the government to use the phone Emergency Alert system to alert the entire country about the risk of fires. Prior to summer, in the North of England, it was extremely windy and gloomy from September to May. Very very few blue skies. The other day, we went from a 2-day mini heat wave (35c & 28c) to gloomy cloud in 2 days - it's just so bizarre. We've just had our 5th or 6th heatwave of the summer A train derailed yesterday due to a buckled rail. Another derailed, cause of which is suspected to be heat/drought related. Luckily no fatalities. We've had more wildfires than 2022 and drought is more widespread. I often can't have my window open at night when it's 29c inside because of the fires 10-20 miles away. I have no A/C I'm wondering if our future is gales and grey for 9 months then heatwaves and drought? I know the North of England is historically gloomy, but it 'feels' different of late. It feels like we do not have the money to begin to prepare and fix things that need fixing to continue the life we have. We haven't built a reservoir since 1990 despite massive population increase. Our rail network is not prepared for heat waves or long periods of drought or long periods of rain or long periods of ice/snow. London buses mostly have no A/C, ditto rest of the country. Many people don't have money for A/C at home - not even sure our electricity network could handle it. And about 100 other issues...
- fifilura 1mo ago
  Did Nigel Farange change his mind?
  - spwa4 1mo ago
    Why would it matter at all? Top CO2 emitters: Country Share Cumulative Cumulative (Gt) China 33% 33% 11.4-13.1 United States 11.7% 44.7% 16.0-18.1 India 8% 52.7% 19.1-21.2 Russia 5.1% 57.8% 21.1-23.2 Japan 2.5% 60.3% 22.1-24.2 UK 0.8% 0.3-0.4 (no cumulative figure) Note that, first, there really is not much point to doing anything if you don't reduce by at least 52% in 3 years or less (less than that, or more time, will not make the difference between IPCC >2 and <2 scenarios). Hence without drastic reductions from the Chinese government (not promises, not "look at our beautiful new solar field", ONLY we're stopping these HUNDREDS of coal mines WITHIN 2 years) you've pretty much already lost, since a lot of countries lower on the list will definitely be increasing, and have declared it colonization for the west to demand they stop. Oh, by the way, you also must convince many African countries to stop that whole "electricity for our people" thing, otherwise the needed reduction is also a pipedream. Note that just stopping CO2 output does not matter if it just gets transplanted somewhere else. In other words: the only way to make a difference is to stop first coal and then oil from being dug up in the first place, and let the CO2 emissions "take care of themselves". Otherwise CO2 emission reductions are local, not global, and so without reducing coal mining and oil pumping reductions do not matter and will not make any difference to global warming. The only countries in the EU that have any influence at all is Norway, and they would have to just give up between 20% and 40% of their national income (France and the Netherlands are rounding errors, and Russia is not EU), and that's a typical figure. And just so we're clear: reducing GDP by 20% to 40% will require a multiple of that in average wage reductions (so let's say at least 50%), without rents reducing by a single cent. You know, to give some idea what you're actually asking for from Norwegians. In other words: this will not happen, there is no way in hell the governments involved will agree to even half of what's needed. And the UK, in fact all western governments other than Norway, US, Canada and Mexico have no influence and cannot realistically make a meaningful contributions to stopping climate change. And even those countries that can contribute will have to give up A LOT and it won't matter unless you get China, Russia and Saudi Arabia to follow suit. Oh and if you do get this going, it'll cause a lot of pain in most of the world.
dariosalvi78 1mo ago
> can't help but wonder what is on European minds that only a big catastrophe, possibly a global war, will make people think again
- KellyCriterion 1mo ago
  other two options: a) Asteroid strike b) Arrival of Aliens (in a sense of "evident to everywhone on earth")
- throwawayqqq11 1mo ago
  Next year, el nino may hit and the extremes will set new records again. I wonder if einstein was right and human stupidity is infinite. On the other side, we can achieve alot as a society when the narratives are positive.
  - spwa4 1mo ago
    El nino hit this year and will be back to normal next year: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-08-13/risk-of-super-el-nino-now-95-percent-as-california-braces-for-impacts https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-08-13/risk-of-... But first we get to experience (probably) record rainfall in autumn and winter.
    - layer8 1mo ago
      The current El Niño hasn’t “hit” in Europe yet. Its effects in Europe will most likely be felt in the first quarter of 2027. I’d assumed that’s what the parent was referring to.
      - kergonath 1mo ago
        El Niño does not really hit Europe in any way. It influences several things, like the jet streams, but the effects on Europe are very indirect and much milder than in the Pacific. They are also delayed by a couple of months.
  - 1mo ago
wiz21c 1mo ago
I tell anyone I meet to seriously consider what immigration will be like when anthropogenic global warming will get stronger. I'm neither pro/against immigration but I know many people are scared by immigration (as is demonstrated in many EC countries by the progression of far right parties). I also tell them to remember that food prices and insurances prices will inevitably go up. And I won't much more that that because everything else fails (even the death of 1000 persons in my country during this years heat waves just make people say "bah, that's life")
- polotics 1mo ago
  Some who think right now that immigration is bad, may later be amongst the ones that decide to emigrate. Then they will know.
  - spwa4 1mo ago
    Are you somehow under the illusion that countries that "send" immigrants now will be accepting of return immigrants in the future? Whether they be the same people that left or other people coming in? This is 100% a one way street for most governments.
- irthomasthomas 1mo ago
  I think you may have cause and affect reversed. It seems to me that fear of migrants grows proportional to the funding of far right parties.

andai 1mo ago

>with the UK losing that warm current in ~47 years What's that going to look like?

bestouff 1mo ago
Very hot in summer, very cold in winter.
afavour 1mo ago
People might be ice skating on the Thames again.
AngryData 1mo ago
Significantly colder in the winter. Im not sure how much it would change summer temps though, it could just affect the amount of rain.
kuerbel 1mo ago
Best article I know about this topic is: https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/amoc-explainer/index.html https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/amoc-explainer/index.htm...
pvaldes 1mo ago
>with the UK losing that warm current in ~47 years >> What's that going to look like? There is a very graphic way to understand the problem. Some cities in Canada are Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Quebec, Winnipeg or Regina. London and Berlin are closer to the North Pole that any of these ----------------------- Minimum temperature registered in London -17 Celsius. In Quebec and Montreal: -36 and -37.8 Celsius. Berlin is a little closer than London to the North Pole but also more continental, so more like Regina in that sense. Berlin lowest temperature registered is -15 Celsius, and in Regina: -40 Celsius ... And Edinburgh is closer to the North pole than any of these, and a little Northern than Manitoba, where reaching -40 Celsius a few nights is expected each year, and more than 30 Celsius in the summer is normal.

RobotToaster 1mo ago

> with the UK losing that warm current in ~47 years Guess it will cancel out the increased temperature?

undersuit 1mo ago
The AMOC delivers warm air year round, it cools the UK from the hotter southern air during the summer.

dgellow 1mo ago

> can't help but wonder what is on European minds The main thing I have in mind is that human civilization is completely fucked. What is needed to ensure things aren’t too horrible in the next century is so drastic and requires such a global coordinated effort that will never happen. There is no technology or super authority that will magically save us from a climate catastrophe this century. Given the vast majority of the world population still see vegetarianism as a joke and not a necessity, and developed countries are ready to sacrifice pretty much everything to the AI compute gods we are truly fucked

netsharc 1mo ago
Yeah, conflict is guaranteed. China will probably invade Russia and secure Lake Baikal and vast areas of Siberia. Europe might start shooting at "smugglers" earnestly (sorry to the "collateral damage"). I guess Eric or Barron will follow Project 2025 Edition 10's guideline and invade Greenland to secure their water for USA. And Canada's favorable climate?
H4cks0r1337 1mo ago
>the vast majority of the world population still see vegetarianism as a joke and not a necessity I'm pretty convinced that lots of people would be willing to make sacrifices. But not while Mark Zuckerberg is allowed to feed his Angus beef Macadamia nuts on Hawaii and all the invitees fly in separate private jets to COP26 instead of making it an online event. The message of "sacrifice for thee, but not for me!" should not be underestimated here.
- dgellow 1mo ago
  You can only control your own actions. Reducing your meat consumption by like 80% is very low effort. It’s honestly ridiculous that still has to be argued about
  - abroszka33 1mo ago
    Why would I reduce it? Not going to eat less meat so that Zuck can keep sailing on his mega yacht.

kvgr 1mo ago

Well in my mind is no one else cares and the EU is holier than pope. We are destroying our economy for promile of world polution and are even shamed for using AC.

Hackbraten 1mo ago
This narrative is dangerous. If everyone points to their own limited influence and points fingers at the rest of the world, no one is going to act.
- kergonath 1mo ago
  It’s the "it’s real, but we cannot do anything about it" rung on the climate denialist ladder. Yes, it is dangerous. It is also mainstream. There are several examples in this thread.
  - kvgr 1mo ago
    We are focusing on wrong things. Nuclear and off coal/gas should have been priority for last 50 years. And should be priority next 50. But Russian propaganda entrenched in spy infested austria and germany forces cheap gas upon us… and now we have to pay the price.
    - kergonath 1mo ago
      > Nuclear and off coal/gas should have been priority for last 50 years. No argument from me. It would not have completely saved us but we’d be in a better position now. The absolute priority should be to avoid burning fossil fuels for energy. > But Russian propaganda entrenched in spy infested austria and germany forces cheap gas upon us Indeed. Germany’s energy policy was a huge risk and set Europe back. I am not sure whether Schröder was a useful idiot or a willing pawn, but the fact that there was no reckoning is very disappointing. And all of Merkel’s balancing act came to naught anyway. So much time wasted…
- Jensson 1mo ago
  Europe is already acting, its the rest of the world that isn't.

deleted 1mo ago

[deleted]

gib444 1mo ago

> but wonder what is on European minds UK here. It really feels like this year has been a massive wake-up call, a follow-up to the one of 2022 (and 2018, 2019, 2021...) Some fire services have had their busiest months on record this year. In an extraordinary (and controversial) move, they convinced the government to use the phone Emergency Alert system to alert the entire country about the risk of fires. Prior to summer, in the North of England, it was extremely windy and gloomy from September to May. Very very few blue skies. The other day, we went from a 2-day mini heat wave (35c & 28c) to gloomy cloud in 2 days - it's just so bizarre. We've just had our 5th or 6th heatwave of the summer A train derailed yesterday due to a buckled rail. Another derailed, cause of which is suspected to be heat/drought related. Luckily no fatalities. We've had more wildfires than 2022 and drought is more widespread. I often can't have my window open at night when it's 29c inside because of the fires 10-20 miles away. I have no A/C I'm wondering if our future is gales and grey for 9 months then heatwaves and drought? I know the North of England is historically gloomy, but it 'feels' different of late. It feels like we do not have the money to begin to prepare and fix things that need fixing to continue the life we have. We haven't built a reservoir since 1990 despite massive population increase. Our rail network is not prepared for heat waves or long periods of drought or long periods of rain or long periods of ice/snow. London buses mostly have no A/C, ditto rest of the country. Many people don't have money for A/C at home - not even sure our electricity network could handle it. And about 100 other issues...

fifilura 1mo ago
Did Nigel Farange change his mind?
- spwa4 1mo ago
  Why would it matter at all? Top CO2 emitters: Country Share Cumulative Cumulative (Gt) China 33% 33% 11.4-13.1 United States 11.7% 44.7% 16.0-18.1 India 8% 52.7% 19.1-21.2 Russia 5.1% 57.8% 21.1-23.2 Japan 2.5% 60.3% 22.1-24.2 UK 0.8% 0.3-0.4 (no cumulative figure) Note that, first, there really is not much point to doing anything if you don't reduce by at least 52% in 3 years or less (less than that, or more time, will not make the difference between IPCC >2 and <2 scenarios). Hence without drastic reductions from the Chinese government (not promises, not "look at our beautiful new solar field", ONLY we're stopping these HUNDREDS of coal mines WITHIN 2 years) you've pretty much already lost, since a lot of countries lower on the list will definitely be increasing, and have declared it colonization for the west to demand they stop. Oh, by the way, you also must convince many African countries to stop that whole "electricity for our people" thing, otherwise the needed reduction is also a pipedream. Note that just stopping CO2 output does not matter if it just gets transplanted somewhere else. In other words: the only way to make a difference is to stop first coal and then oil from being dug up in the first place, and let the CO2 emissions "take care of themselves". Otherwise CO2 emission reductions are local, not global, and so without reducing coal mining and oil pumping reductions do not matter and will not make any difference to global warming. The only countries in the EU that have any influence at all is Norway, and they would have to just give up between 20% and 40% of their national income (France and the Netherlands are rounding errors, and Russia is not EU), and that's a typical figure. And just so we're clear: reducing GDP by 20% to 40% will require a multiple of that in average wage reductions (so let's say at least 50%), without rents reducing by a single cent. You know, to give some idea what you're actually asking for from Norwegians. In other words: this will not happen, there is no way in hell the governments involved will agree to even half of what's needed. And the UK, in fact all western governments other than Norway, US, Canada and Mexico have no influence and cannot realistically make a meaningful contributions to stopping climate change. And even those countries that can contribute will have to give up A LOT and it won't matter unless you get China, Russia and Saudi Arabia to follow suit. Oh and if you do get this going, it'll cause a lot of pain in most of the world.

dariosalvi78 1mo ago

> can't help but wonder what is on European minds that only a big catastrophe, possibly a global war, will make people think again

KellyCriterion 1mo ago
other two options: a) Asteroid strike b) Arrival of Aliens (in a sense of "evident to everywhone on earth")
throwawayqqq11 1mo ago
Next year, el nino may hit and the extremes will set new records again. I wonder if einstein was right and human stupidity is infinite. On the other side, we can achieve alot as a society when the narratives are positive.
- spwa4 1mo ago
  El nino hit this year and will be back to normal next year: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-08-13/risk-of-super-el-nino-now-95-percent-as-california-braces-for-impacts https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-08-13/risk-of-... But first we get to experience (probably) record rainfall in autumn and winter.
  - layer8 1mo ago
    The current El Niño hasn’t “hit” in Europe yet. Its effects in Europe will most likely be felt in the first quarter of 2027. I’d assumed that’s what the parent was referring to.
    - kergonath 1mo ago
      El Niño does not really hit Europe in any way. It influences several things, like the jet streams, but the effects on Europe are very indirect and much milder than in the Pacific. They are also delayed by a couple of months.
- 1mo ago

wiz21c 1mo ago

I tell anyone I meet to seriously consider what immigration will be like when anthropogenic global warming will get stronger. I'm neither pro/against immigration but I know many people are scared by immigration (as is demonstrated in many EC countries by the progression of far right parties). I also tell them to remember that food prices and insurances prices will inevitably go up. And I won't much more that that because everything else fails (even the death of 1000 persons in my country during this years heat waves just make people say "bah, that's life")

polotics 1mo ago
Some who think right now that immigration is bad, may later be amongst the ones that decide to emigrate. Then they will know.
- spwa4 1mo ago
  Are you somehow under the illusion that countries that "send" immigrants now will be accepting of return immigrants in the future? Whether they be the same people that left or other people coming in? This is 100% a one way street for most governments.
irthomasthomas 1mo ago
I think you may have cause and affect reversed. It seems to me that fear of migrants grows proportional to the funding of far right parties.