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1. Most people from Venezuela are happy Maduro is out. A striking difference with people from Ukraine about the invasion. This is the most important thing about
by aglavine 9mo ago
1. Most people from Venezuela are happy Maduro is out. A striking difference with people from Ukraine about the invasion. This is the most important thing about this and most people here in comments ignore it.
2. Maduro wasn't even the president. He was someone who took the country illegally with cartel people.
3. Why? Maduro was smuggling drugs in USA. Huge operations. And I guess there must be geopolitical reasons. You want China and Russia be there? And people from Venezuela were the biggest migration wave in the World last decades. You want millions of refugees?
- woooooo 9mo agoFirst off, I'll give you credit for at least trying to justify this, it puts you ahead of the administration that can't even bother. Second off, only #3b above (geopolitics) could possibly count at all. We support dozens of dictators, don't give a darn about their people as long as it's geopolitically useful. So I've been conditioned to assume it's bullshit when someone says "we're doing it for the people there". Third, and to your #3.. it's Venezuela. No disrespect to the people there but it's not exactly the lynchpin of international relations. Is this really worth it? For some crude which is really high in sulfur and not even that important given fracking? Even if I'm a Henry Kissinger psychopath, this still doesn't make sense.
- aglavine 9mo agoI am not saying USA did this for the people. I am saying that a wide majority of Venezolans are totally happy about this and most people here aren't concerned about this at all. They just want to talk about their pet political point. About what are the reasons behind this I (and most people commenting here) can only have educated guess, but I wouldn't discard so easily to weaken cartels as a reason. It is the third (Cuba and Nicaragua the others) Country they got to totally control and the most important and they are powerful and organized enough to keep spreading, and they are supported by China.
- woooooo 9mo agoThanks for engaging in good faith, but you know that China is selling more cars to all of Latin America than us currently, right? Will this engagement deepen Latin American trust and respect for the US or the opposite? China makes it very clear that they do not give a shit about politics and just want to do good business, they're deepening ties that way. What's our plan? Invade random countries and tell them they better not cross us? How long does that work?
- aglavine 9mo agoFull diaclosure: I am from Argentina. I interact daily with exilees from Venezuela. They are coworkers, they drive my Uber. They are totally happy about this. About trust and respect, I don't see any change. Leftist will keep their mantra and Normal people will mind their business. About the 'master plan'. No one commenting here really knows. As I mentioned to avoid criminal cartels controlling three countries and spreading it is not something I would discard. Imagine if they get nukes. Or they can start to systematicallly buy politicians in USA, as they do in Mexico.
- lukan 9mo ago"I am saying that a wide majority of Venezolans are totally happy about this" How do you know that? What I know anecdotically from other persons from latin america is, they are happy for Maduro to be gone, but fear of venezuela becoming a US colony.
- aglavine 9mo agoMaduro lost elections. 8 millions of exilees can't love him. And I interact daily with exilees. You can disagree. It is hard to believe narco dictators have too much love from people anyway.
- lukan 9mo agoNo doubt that exilees do not love him. But it was about a "wide majority" who hold that opinion. There are lots of russian refugees for example as well and they are not a fan of Putin. But back at home he still seems to enjoy majority support in a broad sense at least and I have no inside knowledge into Venezuela at all.
- speakfreely 9mo ago> Is this really worth it? For some crude which is really high in sulfur and not even that important given fracking? The US doesn't need their oil. It's about stopping China from getting it.
- yunnpp 9mo agoI am still confused about this. Is the goal for US companies to extract Venezuelan oil, or is it to suppress Venezuelan oil exports altogether? Or are both goals orthogonal?
- aglavine 9mo agoI don't think oil has something to do with this. As I have mentioned I think the main reason is the cartel has become too powerful and menacing, controlling three countries and expanding.
- yunnpp 9mo agoThis argument doesn't stand a chance. The US military and intelligence is far outmatched. The drugs war is just a pretext.
- MisterMower 9mo agoIncreasing the supply of oil will lower its price. Bringing production in Venezuela back online will have this effect. Historically they have produced three million barrels per day, currently that number is closer to one million. Russia is funding its war in Ukraine with profits on thier oil production. All else being equal, this makes it harder for them to keep doing that. They reportedly spent $6 billion on air defense systems in Venezuela, not for no reason. Lower oil prices also reduce China’s dependence on Russia for energy. Reducing the incentive for those two countries two cooperate would be in US interests. Energy is fungible and lower oil prices will help reduce the cost to operate AI data centers. On the margin it will improve their profitability and reduce public backlash about rising electricity prices in the US. A large portion of the migrant crisis in the US has been driven by Venezuelan refugees fleeing Maduro’s gross mismanagement of the country. If the subsequent government can bring prosperity back to the country it also reduces illegal immigration in the US, something the current US administration clearly supports. Lots of positive things could result here and you don’t have to be a “Kissinger psychopath” to imagine them and hope they materialize.
- doug_durham 9mo agoOk, but at the cost of American freedoms? We are a country ruled by laws not people. Everything about this operation violated this principle. Are you willing to give up your freedoms in order to create cheap oil so that your scenarios play out? My ancestors didn't die on the battlefield to support such things.
- aglavine 9mo agoVenezuela was not a sovereign state, it wasn't people's will at all to have Maduro as head of state, rather the opposite is true.
- MisterMower 9mo agoWhat freedoms did you lose today? The Patriot Act was signed into law two decades ago. I can’t remember the last time Congress passed a declaration of war prior to the President engaging in military action. I’m sympathetic to your sentiment but that train left the station likely before you were born.
- dboreham 9mo ago> ahead of the administration that can't even bother It's possible they have tried to justify, but via Fox News and Truth Social. Neither of which you and I read, I presume.
- tdeck 9mo ago> Most people from Venezuela are happy Maduro is out. Based on what? There's a poll already about the US bombing Venezuela and kidnapping Maduro? There's a big difference between removing a leader through a legitimate domestic process and this.
- semiquaver 9mo agoWhat legitimate domestic process are you envisioning? He lost an election and stayed in power anyway. Any domestic process to remove him would look like a coup.
- tdeck 9mo agoThere have been uprisings that weren't coups in many countries in the world.
- monerozcash 9mo agoAnd if that doesn't work? You could, for example, envision a situation where 10% of the people are well treated and armed by the government. It'd be very hard for an unarmed ill-treated 90% to conduct any kind of uprising if the government was sufficiently well organized and brutal.
- whateveracct 9mo ago> He lost an election and stayed in power anyway Hey, we had a guy who tried to do that too! Thank goodness it didn't work out.
- IncreasePosts 9mo agoWe did. And if he was successful, and then started threatening Canada, I think I'd be totally fine with Canada performing a special operation and taking him to stand trial.
- tommica 9mo agoNot everything is about your country
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- augusto-moura 9mo agoThat is a one-sided list if I can see one, you basically copying and pasting the justification for invasion
- ToValueFunfetti 9mo agoThey were responding to a comment that asked what the justification for invasion was; it would be weird if it was anything else
- augusto-moura 9mo agoYou shouldn't be searching for the reasoning only on the official sources. Oil is clearly the biggest variable on this, not Maduro per se
- googlryas 9mo agoEveryone claimed we invaded Iraq back in the early 2000s to take their oil, but the US spent a whole bunch of money on the military operations, and opened up oil and gas to basically every other country, including geopolitical rivals like China and Russia. Maybe "oil" is too simple of an explanation.
- ineedaj0b 9mo agoOil is important but as lever to pull on because it affects China. The invasion is meant to orient the US to fight China. We are cutting away the Middle East war baggage, trying to end the Ukraine war baggage so we can focus on China. Russia would be a nice ally against China. China was moving around Lat Am and we are removing the communists from the hemisphere. China likes oil. Loves oil but can’t get enough oil which is why it’s building solar and nuclear so quickly. The US can clamp down on the oil if Venezuela is an ally. So the US wants a strong Venezuela that can’t be used against us. It’s hard to conduct war without oil. The US has a strong incentive to make sure Venezuela comes out strong, and the Chinese have a strong incentive to not let that happen. tldr: it’s all about china
- aglavine 9mo ago
- sweezyjeezy 9mo agoI think one of the best arguments against US interventionalism when it comes to tyrants is just how 'variable' (let's say) the outcomes have been over the years. For every Panama, there's two or three Guatamalas, Irans or most recently Iraq. Generally the hard part is not the removal of the head of state, which for the US is usually pretty quick. It's what beurocratic structures remain functional and whether the power vacuum created brings something better and more robust, or just decades of violence.
- wrsh07 9mo agoI think Sarah Paine on dwarkesh has noted that it tends to go well when the countries already have fairly robust institutions and tends to go badly when they don't As I'm not a historian, I can only note that it hasn't gone well recently even when multiple successive presidents want it to
- nonethewiser 8mo agoIn Iraq/Afghanistan, the US dismantled the institutions and tried to build new ones. In Venezuela, it appears they are simply moving the gun to the head of Maduro's replacement.
- rambojohnson 9mo ago"huge operations", wtf are you talking about? get off newsweek.
- the_gastropod 9mo agoWith such a slam dunk case, it should have been a cakewalk to get UN buy-in, or at the very minimum, Republican-controlled congressional approval.
- nubg 9mo agoUN is deadlocked with Russia and China
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- ycombinary 9mo agoYou have to be pretty naive at this point to believe any of these points are actually real reasons behind this action, esp. 1 or 2.
- aglavine 9mo agoI never said that. I said that a wide majority of Venezolans are happy and this was barely mentioned in the comments.
- themafia 9mo ago> He was someone who took the country illegally with cartel people. That's an allegation. We are from a nation of laws where this behavior within it's borders would be in violation of the constitution. > Maduro was smuggling drugs in USA Shall we talk about what the CIA has been doing in Venezuela for decades? > You want China and Russia be there? The worst form of whataboutism. > And people from Venezuela were the biggest migration wave in the World last decades. Is that because they hate Maduro or because they need money? > You want millions of refugees? We already have them. Can we /please/ talk about WHY without getting distracted by nonsense drug dealing claims?
- lurk2 9mo agoThis style of commentary is obnoxious and not appropriate for this forum.
- themafia 9mo agoAsking questions in good faith is not appropriate? If difference exist between two people then the quickest way to resolve them is to reveal them. It seems some people prefer to paw around in the dark out of deference. I did not believe this was part of the "hacker ethic."
- lurk2 9mo ago> Asking questions in good faith is not appropriate? You aren't asking questions in good faith, you're trying to score points. > It seems some people prefer to paw around in the dark out of deference. You're doing it here, implying that I'm a deferential coward instead of stating it outright. I would urge you to review the site guidelines. The only reason this site is worth visiting in the first place is because it isn't ordinarily full of the sort of Reddit-style commentary you're engaging in right now. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- ath3nd 9mo agoThoroughly answering somebody's questions and refuting their points is not appropriate for this forum? We should all agree with each other and sing along how lucky Venezuelans are that US, the self proclaimed world police, came to steal their oil and bomb their capital (terrorism/war crime)?
- MangoToupe 9mo ago> Most people from Venezuela are happy Maduro is out. Is there any evidence of this?
- aglavine 9mo agoMaduro lost elections. 8 millions of exilees can't love him. And I interact daily with exilees. There are already videos if people celebrating in Caracas and all over the World. You can disagree. It is hard to believe narco dictators have too much love from people anyway.
- MangoToupe 9mo agoTypically exilees are exiled for a reason
- aglavine 9mo agoThey would be impoverished, imprisoned or dead have they not fled. Hard to believe people who stayed are happy about this. And exilees are 20% of Venezuela's population. It was a massive wave.
- MangoToupe 9mo agoWell yes, this is how you treat shitty people
- solenoid0937 9mo agoPlease read the HN guidelines[1] if you would like to continue engaging with the community. Calling exilees "abusive shitbags"[2] and "shitty people" is not the kind of discourse we accept here. [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html [2]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46484264 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46484264
- lurk2 9mo ago> Maduro was smuggling drugs in USA. Huge operations. What evidence is there of that?
- xg15 9mo agoEven with those who are happy that Maduro is gone, I can't imagine they could be happy about the US "running" the country and siphoning off the oil.
- googlryas 9mo agoNormal Venezuelans saw absolutely zero benefit from whatever oil revenue there was, so even in the worst case scenario, which is not a given, their lives would not be different.
- xg15 9mo agoWell, in which scenario WOULD they see benefit from the oil? It's always slightly odd that a country with the largest oil reserves in the world doesn't manage to stock up its supermarkets. I don't want to excuse corruption and cronyism, but surely, the US sanctions at least deserve a mention?
- jdgoesmarching 9mo agoI swear these comments could be copy-pasted from NYT op-eds in 2004 regarding Iraq.
- SanjayMehta 9mo agoThey're all greased by oil.
- N_Lens 9mo agoI think there's massive astroturfing with the usual talking points about drug trafficking, Maduro a dictator, Venezuelans are "Happy" plastered everywhere to try and distract from the naked fact of the oil.
- spacechild1 9mo ago> Why? Maduro was smuggling drugs in USA. Huge operations. What are you talking about? The war on drugs is just a bad excuse. Trump keeps claiming that Venezuela is responsible for the fentanyl crisis, which is demonstrably wrong. And if the US administration was so worried about drugs, why did Trump pardon Juan Orlando Hernández, ex-president of Honduras, who had been sentenced to 45 years for drug trafficking? https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9qewln7912o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9qewln7912o
- potsandpans 9mo agoIf Russia rolled into the United States tomorrow and deposed Trump, _most people_ would "be happy" trump was out. It's not important at all. I've seen this exact line repeated all over the Internet today, almost like it's not a real sentiment and instead a pre seeded talking point to muddy the waters. It is amusing to see the consent factory so efficiently spit this shit out though.
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- tdeck 9mo agoMost people in Crimea supported annexation by Russia. Does that make that one OK?
- mlindner 9mo agoThey didn't actually though.
- johnnyanmac 9mo ago1) the method the US performed is irrespective of popular sentiment. If we were to buck the rules, I'm not sure if Venezuela would make the top 10 targets. 3) Trump pardoned the Honduras president. The drug smuggling excuse is moot. This is a power grab, as usual. And it came from Trump's mouth. We're no better than Russia if we choose to go with this narrative.
- bean469 9mo ago> Maduro was smuggling drugs in USA Do you have sources for this not including the official White House position?
- ajjahs 9mo ago[dead]