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Here's a much better article from the Finnish public broadcaster giving more context: https://yle.fi/a/74-20161606 https://yle.fi/a/74-20161606 My comments: T
by vesinisa 1y ago
Here's a much better article from the Finnish public broadcaster giving more context: https://yle.fi/a/74-20161606 https://yle.fi/a/74-20161606
My comments:
The important thing to note that at this point it's just a political posturing and an announcement of intent. They haven't shown any concrete technical plan how this would actually be executed.
> "Of course, we are very pragmatic and realistic, we cannot do this in five years. Planning will continue until the end of the decade, and maybe in 2032 we can start construction."
Once they have the cost estimates and effects on existing rail traffic studied, I bet construction will never start.
- Vinnl 1y agoTo be fair, if we imagine a future in which this did happen, the start would also look like this, so who knows.
- cladopa 1y ago>Once they have the cost estimates and effects on existing rail traffic studied, I bet construction will never start. It is not that hard. Countries like Spain have already two different gauges and have the necessary technology in the trains to change between different systems.
- varsketiz 1y agoOne of the main goals of this is to not have the russian gauge available in case russians attack, so that logistics deeper into Finland cant happen easily with the same train, so backwards compatability is not desired.
- potato3732842 1y agoIt's not like this results in a categorical difference in difficulty. Gauge switching infrastructure is common at borders. Yeah stopping and switching is slower than driving right through but it's not the end of the world in the long tail of military logistics.
- theshrike79 1y agoRussian military logistics _heavily_ depend on trains, everything that can go on a train, does so. Flight and vehicle stuff is mostly an afterthought. Any hindrance we can put on the Finnish-Russian border to stop them just unloading 12 cars of fresh troops in the middle of the country is a good thing.
- paddy_m 1y agoAnother fun note about Russian logistics, they aren't palletized or mechanized. Thought being that cranes don't look good in parades. The train side seems smart or at least interesting, the pallets incredibly dumb. https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1507056013245128716 https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1507056013245128716
- jabl 1y agoWhy invest in forklifts, container infrastructure etc. if your military has a near-endless supply of uneducated conscripts you can order to shuffle around shells and other items? (Of course a more thorough analysis would probably come to the conclusion that better logistics is worth it. There's still an opportunity cost for those conscripts who could do something else instead, like dying in zerg rushes on the Ukrainian front. And even though those conscripts are 'free' they still require chow and a place to sleep etc.)
- smallstepforman 1y ago“ endless supply of uneducated conscripts “ Now you’re just being silly.
- bluGill 1y agoRegardless of how much education they have - they are treated as uneducated.
- kranke155 1y ago
- dotancohen 1y agoBut if the Spanish can muster dual gauge trains, what's to prevent the Russians from doing the same? Or is the Finnish gauge a state secret?
- theshrike79 1y agoThe difference between Finnish and Russian gauge is 4mm IIRC the diff to European standard is closer to 10cm, still doable but a hurdle compared to just driving a trainload of troops to the middle of Helsinki it's a bit harder
- dotancohen 1y ago> The difference between Finnish and Russian gauge is 4mm What is the acceptable tolerance? It doesn't sound like a huge engineering effort to design a boogie compatible with both without requiring switching.
- anticensor 1y agoYes, the acceptable tolerance is -4mm+7mm.
- iggldiggl 1y agoWhere? Finland specifically, or elsewhere? Both my local tram system in Germany as well as DB as the national infrastructure operator in Germany have construction tolerances of only +/- 2 mm. Maintenance tolerances on the other hand can be quite a bit larger, at least in the plus direction (on the order of 15/20/25 mm).
- lazide 1y agoSure, but thats Germans. I'm surprised it isn't specc'd in 10ths.
- 1y ago
- adrianmsmith 1y ago> One of the main goals of this is to not have the russian gauge available in case russians attack This doesn't seem like it can be a goal given > maybe in 2032 we can start construction I mean unless the plan is to assume Russia won't attack until e.g. 2040 when construction will be complete && Russia can't implement multi-gauge trains that Spain is already using now?
- kibwen 1y agoEven if Russia's conquest of Ukraine were to end tomorrow, they would take a few years to recover before mounting their next offensive. And Finland isn't first in line on their list of next invasion targets, that would be either Georgia, Moldova, or the Baltics. And in any case, just as in computer security, a security posture does not need to be unassailable, it just needs to be expensive enough to deter the enemy. NATO countries (well, the ones that haven't already been compromised by Russia) will be happy to fund the gauge switch, as would the EU in general for the sake of greater economic integration. Meanwhile, it increases the costs on Russia and slows their advance. It's a win no matter what.
- vintermann 1y agoRussia can't just attack anywhere it wants to. Putin is not Kim Il-sung, he can't count on any order to be blindly obeyed. It took years of propaganda, unfortunately armed with a couple of actually good points (mostly supplied by the neonazi nationalist wing in Ukraine, who wanted a war), before he could try actually invading. He had to walk a dangerous game with his own, in particular with his own neonazi supporter Prigozhin, who could easily have come up on top in their inevitable conflict. He's absolutely not harmless, but neither should we allow ourselves to be distracted by phony countermeasures against the Russian threat, like this gauge shift thing clearly is in my opinion.
- kibwen 1y agoAs you suggest, Russia's invasion of Ukraine was bolstered by Russian sympathizers in the east. Every country bordering Russia is incentivized to break free of any sort of alignment with Russia in order to reduce the threat of local insurgency which will aid Russia in its invasion. For example, the Baltic countries removing Russian from their list of official languages, in addition to decoupling from the Russian power grid. There are a lot of steps to be taken, and a lot of them will take decades. Fortunately, Russia's capacity to wage war measured against their number of potential targets means that it would take them decades to reconquer it all, assuming Europe steps up to fund the defense. Train gauge alignment is just one of many steps towards this end, and the sooner the better.
- culopatin 1y agoWouldn’t it be simpler to make a “train moat” by disconnecting rails from Russia? Or would they run the trains on dirt for a mile and re attach?
- bobthepanda 1y agoBuilding temporary bridges in wartime is pretty normal.
- qingcharles 1y agoAlways loved going over the border from France as a kid and they would lift the whole train up and slide the old wheels out and put the new ones in and off you go!
- WesolyKubeczek 1y agoOr they will start with a few of the most important lines that connect the countries and ports.
- theshrike79 1y agoThat was the plan, one rail that can go from somewhere in Finland all the way to central Europe without stopping to change rail gauges.
- WesolyKubeczek 1y agoSee also: Rail Baltica These projects are sloooooooow
- oblio 1y agoFear of a foreign invasion by a country much larger than your, and one that occupied you once for 200 years and attacked you again just 20 years after independence tends to clear the mind.
- dotancohen 1y agoCrazy thing is, I don't live in Finland yet this description could describe our situation almost identically as well. And I can think of yet _another_ place on Earth with a similar situation.
- pydry 1y agoFear of foreign invasion is also why the Soviet Union invaded during the Winter War ("Greater Finland" irredentism was a thing, and St Petersburg was militarily exposed). Fear is why Finland allied with the Nazis. Fear is why the Soviet Union also signed a pact with the Nazis and invaded Ukraine. It's easy to justify anything with fear.
- StefanBatory 1y agoFear is why Finland allied with the Nazis. ... or maybe because Fins got invaded by Soviets.
- pydry 1y agoThey didnt stop being allied to the Nazis after the winter war was over. Fear maintained that alliance. Just like fear of "greater finland" made the Soviets invade in the first place. It's fear all the way down. The only difference is the validity of those fears. Obviously your country's enemies' fears were always invalid while your country's allies' fears were always justified.
- mopsi 1y ago> Just like fear of "greater finland" made the Soviets invade in the first place. And the fear of Poland made the Nazis invade Poland, right? Their propaganda no doubt presented things this way, but that was far from the truth. Much like Nazis had to stage a Polish attack on German radio station[1] to justify their invasion of Poland, the USSR had to fabricate the shelling of Mainila[2] to justify the invasion of Finland, because neither Poland nor Finland were apparently threatening enough on their own. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelling_of_Mainila https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelling_of_Mainila
- tarvaina 1y agoAlso it is one party (The Finns) presenting a rail initiative competing with their government partner's (National Coalition) older initiative. It is very unlikely that they both will be implemented.
- dotancohen 1y agoUnderestimating the Finns' ability to just get stuff done seems to be a common motif throughout history.
- zokier 1y agoThere is one reason for optimism here: Finnish rail network is in quite poor shape and needs major work done anyways. So switching gauge allows funneling more EU funding into these projects that would need to be done either way. I imagine that e.g. the infamous Suomi-rata and ELSA projects will be revived as gauge switch.
- ljlolel 1y agoAnd would deter Russian invasion (supply lines rule everything around me) which would significantly reduce their large military spending.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago> would deter Russian invasion Does Russia still own a lot of 5-foot rolling stock? (Genuine question.) That’s what Finland is on [1]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_ft_and_1520_mm_gauge_railways https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_ft_and_1520_mm_gauge_railw...
- jabl 1y agoThere's enough tolerance that you can run 1520mm rolling stock on 1524mm track and vice versa.
- FpUser 1y agoNow you owe me a coffee and a keyboard
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- logifail 1y ago> funneling more EU funding I'm sure EU taxpayers will be presented with a solid business case demonstrating value for money before our €billions are spent on a project such as this. Oh, wait, this is the EU. Most likely a deal would be thrashed out between key players via Whatsapp but that "due to their ephemeral nature"[0] we aren't entitled to read any of their messages. [0] see https://www.politico.eu/article/pfizergate-ursula-von-der-leyen-eu-commission-pfizer-albert-bourla-covid-19/ https://www.politico.eu/article/pfizergate-ursula-von-der-le...
- sbuttgereit 1y agoOn the other hand.... "Unification to standard gauge on May 31 – June 1, 1886 [United States] In 1886, the southern railroads agreed to coordinate changing gauge on all their tracks. After considerable debate and planning, most of the southern rail network was converted from 5 ft (1,524 mm) gauge to 4 ft 9 in (1,448 mm) gauge, then the standard of the Pennsylvania Railroad, over two days beginning on Monday, May 31, 1886. Over a period of 36 hours, tens of thousands of workers pulled the spikes from the west rail of all the broad gauge lines in the South, moved them 3 in (76 mm) east and spiked them back in place.[6] The new gauge was close enough that standard gauge equipment could run on it without problem. By June 1886, all major railroads in North America, an estimated 11,500 miles (18,500 km), were using approximately the same gauge. To facilitate the change, the inside spikes had been hammered into place at the new gauge in advance of the change. Rolling stock was altered to fit the new gauge at shops and rendezvous points throughout the South. The final conversion to true standard gauge took place gradually as part of routine track maintenance.[6] Now, the only broad-gauge rail tracks in the United States are on some city transit systems." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Track_gauge_in_the_United_States#Unification_to_standard_gauge_on_May_31_%E2%80%93_June_1,_1886 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Track_gauge_in_the_United_Stat...
- Gravityloss 1y agoAmazing. I wonder if one can do anything like this with the current concrete sleepers and thermite welded tracks.
- IAmBroom 1y agoThe welds could be cut and rewelded, obviously. The sleepers are molded with preset widths, however, and would need replacement.
- close04 1y agoProbably the biggest challenge is that there is way more rail traffic today and it's more tightly coupled in logistics chains and people's day to day lives. Disruptions are more expensive and harder to tolerate. And that's on top of the technical challenges, tolerances leave less room for error today.
- mimsee 1y agoThe costs were already studied in 2023 and were deemed cost ineffective[0]. The report contained three main strategies (VE1, VE2, VE3) with A & B plans for the first two. Costs would be in the range of 10-15+ billion with 15-20+ years allocated for construction time[1, p. 47]. [0]: https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/-/1410829/report-shows-that-changing-the-track-gauge-would-not-be-cost-effective https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/-/1410829/report-shows-that-cha... [1]: https://api.hankeikkuna.fi/asiakirjat/697c1f25-332b-40ed-9d61-ce3e801e051c/073c1b82-40a1-45df-93d6-3301a88b778e/RAPORTTI_20230412070136.PDF https://api.hankeikkuna.fi/asiakirjat/697c1f25-332b-40ed-9d6...
- Gravityloss 1y agoI agree that a new line at least from Tornio to Oulu would make sense. There's also a lot of heavy industry in the Gulf of Bothnia, like Raahe and Kokkola.
- dang 1y agoOk, we've changed to that URL from https://www.trenvista.net/en/news/rnhs/finland-migration-standard-gauge/ https://www.trenvista.net/en/news/rnhs/finland-migration-sta... above. Thanks!