17 ms·
What is the bull case here? They close the gap to Anthropic and become a 4th place player?
by chambo622 2y ago
What is the bull case here? They close the gap to Anthropic and become a 4th place player?
- blackeyeblitzar 2y agoUnique data set. And Elon. And with Elon, comes a great set of talent. From https://x.ai/about https://x.ai/about > Our team is led by Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX. Collectively our team contributed some of the most widely used methods in the field, in particular the Adam optimizer, Batch Normalization, Layer Normalization, and the discovery of adversarial examples. We further introduced innovative techniques and analyses such as Transformer-XL, Autoformalization, the Memorizing Transformer, Batch Size Scaling, μTransfer, and SimCLR. We have worked on and led the development of some of the largest breakthroughs in the field including AlphaStar, AlphaCode, Inception, Minerva, GPT-3.5, and GPT-4. They are already competitive despite the late start: https://x.ai/blog/grok-1.5v https://x.ai/blog/grok-1.5v
- infotainment 2y agoDoes it, though? That was probably true pre-X™, but it seems like the primary selection metric has gone from “competence” to “doesn’t ever contradict Elon”
- threeseed 2y agoBut we know from Google that unless you can definitively solve the "is this sentence real or a joke" datasets like Twitter, Reddit etc are going to be more trouble than they are worth. And Elon's recent polarising nature and the callous nature with which he disbanded the Tesla Supercharger team means that truly talented people aren't going to be as attracted to him as in his early days. They are only going to be there for the money.
- LegitShady 2y ago>Twitter Supercharger team interesting.
- lynx23 2y agoI still fondly remember the story an OpenAI rep told about fine-tuning with company slack history. Given a question like "Can you do this and that please." the system answered (after being fine-tuned with said history) "Sure, I'll do it tomorrow." Teaches you to carefully select your training data.
- jokethrowaway 2y agoThe datasets should not be used for knowledge but to train a language model. Using it for knowledge is bonkers. Why not buy some educational textbook company and use 99.9% correct data? Oh and use RAG while you are at it so you can point to the origin of the information. The real evolution still has to come though, we need to build a reasoning engine (Q*?) which will just use RAG for knowledge and language models to convert its thought into human language
- dagmx 2y agoHow does one differentiate knowledge from the language model in an LLM? At least in a way that would provide a benefit?
- kolinko 2y agoYou use formal verification for logic and rags for source data. In other words - say you have a model that is semi-smart, often makes mistakes in logic, but sometimes gives valid answers. You use it to “brainstorm” physical equations and then use formal provers to weed out the correct answer. Even if the llm is correct 0.001% of the time, it’s still better than the current algorithms which are essentially brute forcing.
- dagmx 2y agoI’m still confused as to the value of training on tweets though in that scenario? If you need to effectively provide this whole secondary dataset to have better answers, what value do the tweets add to training other than perhaps sentiment analysis or response stylization?
- talldayo 2y agoI mean, he can try. The world already has a number of AI corporations headed up by totalitarian megalomaniacs though, the market may eventually reward some other course of action.
- klyrs 2y agoIf there's one place Musk has proven his worth, it's entering a crowded market late and taking the same approach as the competition. Ah, nevermind. He's just pissing away investor money. Must be fun!
- bagels 2y agoWhat unique dataset? Tweets?
- LeoPanthera 2y agoYup. They're going to have the greatest training set of trolls, shitposts, and propaganda. The only universe they're going to end up understanding is the one inside Elon's head.
- duskwuff 2y agoI, for one, eagerly await the new insights into the universe which will be unlocked by training an AI on dril's tweets.
- sundalia 2y agoUnique? You mean tweets? Yeah sure It's 6B down the drain. Saying grok 1.5 is competitive is a joke, if it was any good it would be ranked well in chatbot arena (https://chat.lmsys.org/ https://chat.lmsys.org/). Elon is a master in hyping underperforming things and this is no exception.
- nomel 2y agoNo, there is no ranking for Grok. It’s not participating. It would be hard to judge rate of improvement at this point, since the company has only been around for 1.25 years, and grok 1.5 is yet to be released for general access.
- joeberg8 2y agoYou really think investors like sequoia and a16z are dumb enough to fall for Elon hyping things up? They know who he is and They’ve seen him operate at levels basically no other entrepreneur can snd are betting on that
- croes 2y ago>Collectively our team contributed some of the most widely used methods in the field, So they hired some guys from other AI companies.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- belter 2y agoElon Musk is planning to invoice the AI ....to Tesla and X a la Adam Neumann.... https://www.ft.com/content/2a96995b-c799-4281-8b60-b235e84aefe4 https://www.ft.com/content/2a96995b-c799-4281-8b60-b235e84ae...
- newswasboring 2y agoIsn't that ... illegal? He's just using one investor's money to another.
- sangnoir 2y agoWell, Elon Musk is holding AI development ransom unless he's granted sufficient shares in Tesla to take his holdings above 25%. So I suppose they can give him billions to solve for self-driving the "easy" way, or the "hard" way. How this is not a conflict of interest, I do not know; then again it may explain why Elon wants to reincorporate Tesla in Texas - away from Delaware courts
- belter 2y agoIt worked for Adam
- bboygravity 2y agoWhy 4th place? Got a crystal ball of substantiation or is this another case of ordinary Elon bashing?
- chambo622 2y agoI would be asking the same question if another company formed in the past year raised $6B to train LLMs. For example, Mistral raised a significantly smaller round at a much lower valuation. Just trying to learn how others see this.
- threeseed 2y agoBecause Microsoft/OpenAI, Google and Meta have unlimited money and servers to throw at AI. As do Amazon and Apple who aren't just sitting back doing nothing. So I think even 4th place is putting it nicely. Far more likely to be 6th at best.
- bboygravity 2y agoBecause winning tech-development or even AI/AGI is about who has the most money and servers?! Since when? If that's the case then why are Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and even Google not nr 1 right now? IMO the deciding factor for success is super obviously leadership. Hence why xAI got 6 billy thrown at it.
- Jensson 2y ago> If that's the case then why are Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and even Google not nr 1 right now? Microsoft is nr 1 right now, via OpenAI. Microsoft was behind on AI so they sent their compute for 49% of OpenAI and full access to OpenAI's models.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- darth_avocado 2y agoThe bull case is… they will have FSD by the end of the year… 2017…
- _cenw 2y ago2017 in base 16?
- pandemic_region 2y agothat's 7E1.
- mkl 2y ago8215. We have a while to wait yet.
- artemonster 2y agoI still dont understand why elmo is not being investigated for fraud for all these obscenely unreal claims and promises he has made over the years. this is a clear and cut definition of fraud, for which "female steve jobs" and another e-trucking clown CEO are doing their time. why not elmo?
- bboygravity 2y agoUnreal claims? Getting a deadline wrong?
- darksaints 2y agoOMG, Elon’s simps are so fucking delusional. No, being wrong about a deadline is not fraud. Selling something with a promised deadline attached to it, and being wrong about that deadline for 6+ years is fraud.
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 2y agoHe is. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-autopilot-probe-us-prosecutors-focus-securities-wire-fraud-2024-05-08/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-...
- aaron695 2y ago> What is the bull case here? The real bull case - Elon doesn't kowtow to mentally ill basement nerds and the media/politicians trying to not lose power. Can you image someone running in to tell Elon the fat nerds on HN are in a tizzy about Grok telling people to eat rocks? Other bull case he's obviously silo-ing Twitter for unique training data. Reddit can only ask nicely you don't train off them. Twitter with a good AI could become quite strong. I'm not as bullish on this, but... Twitter is all the cutting edge news. ChatGPT was happy to be years out of date. No one cares Russia has finally manned up and launched a tactical nuke 24 hours after it happens, something new will be trending. This is Twitters strength, to the minute data. One of the AI's will have to specialize in this.
- zer0c00ler 2y ago[dead]
- tim333 2y agoI guess like OpenAI but without Altman taking it over.