21 ms·
Ask HN: Whatever happened to the “coming wave” of delivery drones?
I feel like a few years ago all the rage was that Amazon and other retailers were going to deliver things via drones, straight to your doorstep
Food delivery companies as well seemed to be testing out robots that would bring your food to you albeit in a more sidewalk bound way
Its been a few years and I have yet to have a single thing drone delivered to my house
What happened to that alternate future? Are companies still working on it? Or did we move on from that idea for some reasons we discovered?
- bbstats 3y agoWe have some where I live (Flytrex in Durham). It's a pretty fun and occasionally useful novelty but - FAA regulations mean a driver has to come watch it deliver the food so - not quite ready for prime time.
- xw4002 3y agoThe sidewalk way exists in some places. https://cocodelivery.com/ https://cocodelivery.com/ https://www.starship.xyz/ https://www.starship.xyz/
- cpach 3y agoIndeed. And where’s my flying car?
- amorriscode 3y agoThere was a recent How I Built This podcast about Zipline who is doing this. They're doing some real deliveries. https://pca.st/6imicbz4 https://pca.st/6imicbz4
- nigamanth 3y agoCouldn't it have been COVID and the markets crashing?
- kylixz 3y agoThere are some companies/efforts in the space: https://www.manna.aero/ https://www.manna.aero/ https://www.flyzipline.com/ https://www.flyzipline.com/ https://wing.com/ https://wing.com/ https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom/2022/05/24/were-bringing-the-convenience-of-drone-delivery-to-4-million-u-s-households-in-partnership-with-droneup https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom/2022/05/24/were-bring... Several more out there still from the initial bust. Regulations make it challenging for beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) autonomous delivery, particularly in the US with the FAA. Also, it's a hard problem in autonomy to nail it every time despite advancements. Less than 1% failure is still potentially catastrophic when you're carrying a few pounds of lithium batteries above people's backyards.
- bhealy 3y agoregulations in ths USA make it challenging, but in EUrope - we're flying at scale. Video here of 1 weekend of deliveries-: https://youtu.be/0lFT_K47Pa4 https://youtu.be/0lFT_K47Pa4
- kylixz 3y agoDefinitely a fan of your work at Manna, Bobby. Love the hardware design and the no-nonsense "get it done" with continuous drone operations in Europe. Things for us to aspire towards as another drone (non-delivery) company.
- randomluck040 3y agoI was working with drones for a while and one issue with carrying weight was distance. If you want a drone capable of carrying weight it has to have a specific size to accommodate the heavy object as well as batteries that get heavier the longer you want to fly and the more power you need to transport said object. Outside of that rules about line of sight were a thing, so you couldn’t just let the drone fly a pre-programmed path but you also needed to see it. There is also a risk of being shot down. I think at the end of the day search and rescue or coast guards might use drones to deliver something very quickly if there is no other way but outside of that I see challenges that are rather hard to overcome.
- Jasper_ 3y agoAre you kidding me? It was all basically vaporware that disappeared when the free money ended. The Kiwi food delivery robots were basically fake -- they only went about 1/8 of a mile automatically. So they'd drive a car to the end of a street with your food and a robot, and then get the robot out of the car, put the food inside, and then the robot would hobble over a couple hundred feet to your door. Absolutely useless. From https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Kiwibots-win-fans-at-UC-Berkeley-as-they-deliver-13895867.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Kiwibots-win-fa... > The Kiwibots do not figure out their own routes. Instead, people in Colombia, the home country of Chavez and his two co-founders, plot “waypoints” for the bots to follow, sending them instructions every five to 10 seconds on where to go > On the ground in Berkeley, people also do a lot of robot support. Traveling at 1 to 1½ mph, the bots would take too long to chug to local restaurants, so Kiwi workers pick up the food at restaurants and take it via bikes or scooters to meeting spots around campus to insert into an insulated bag in the bots’ storage compartment. > The average distance a robot covers for a delivery is about 200 meters (656 feet, or one-eighth of a mile) which makes them fall short of a “last-mile” solution.
- TillE 3y agoMuch like Theranos, basic immutable laws of nature make the whole idea absurd. Namely, that it requires a ton of energy to keep an object aloft. It's just wildly inefficient, and will never see serious usage outside of tiny niches. Not until we get science fiction antigravity or tiny fusion reactors or something.
- sebzim4500 3y agoDoesn't it also require a ton of energy to move a five ton truck to my driveway in order to deliver a 100g charging cable? I'm not sure the laws of physics are on the side of the status quo here.
- l33t233372 3y agoI would bet that even the worst Amazon truck gets more pounds of product per Joule expended than the best drone for any reasonably real world distance/load.
- Analemma_ 3y agoI don't remember where, but I read a lengthy comment from someone in the industry which said there were two main things preventing delivery drones from being a viable market: 1. FAA regulations - delivery drones can't operate within X miles of an airport (technically they can, but it requires a much stricter degree of certification and compliance nobody wants to bother with) 2. Drones need a landing space, so people without yards (like apartment and townhouse dwellers, who make up a lot of the population in exactly the densely populated areas where you'd want to use drones to begin with) can't be served And it turns out that once you exclude "houses within X miles of an airport" and "houses without an LZ", there aren't enough customers left to make delivery drones worth it.
- imglorp 3y agoAlso in the LZ column: trees and power lines. From above, looking down, power lines are almost impossible to spot for human pilots. A CV model steering down from 400 feet would need to avoid such.
- djohnston 3y ago2 is surprising as that’s the opposite of where I’d expect delivery drones to be useful. You don’t need them in dense urban environments where a stocked truck offloads inventory with low mileage. You want them in rural areas where as the crow flies makes a difference and it’s expensive to have a truck driving about sparsely populated areas.
- ajhurliman 3y agoI saw a demo recently where they had a drone flying high and it zip-lined a package down to the destination directly below it, so the drone never had to get close to the ground. I’m not sure if that’s current strategy but it seems like a cool idea to cut down on noise and proximity issues.
- dole 3y agoI think this is the popular route they’re going, to avoid drone theft/vandalism, problem is still the liability of dropping things on people’s heads regardless of CV or other sensors.
- avar 3y agoThe flurry of excitement was before the FAA started actively regulating it. Since then e.g. Amazon is stíll nominally pursuing it, but here's a recent article about how that's going: https://www.businessinsider.com/faa-restrictions-are-curtailing-amazons-drone-delivery-program-2023-2?international=true&r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/faa-restrictions-are-curtail...
- Greenpants 3y agoThere's a lot of research done with drones but the world isn't quite ready yet. Realistically, drones delivering packages will get shot down in the US, simply for being unmanned and flying over people's neighbourhoods. People easily feel threatened. Perhaps more importantly, there's too much that could go wrong. What about legislation where they may fly and how high? What if a drone crashes into someone or something? What if someone's package gets stolen? As much as the technology enthusiasts in us enjoy the concept of delivery drones, most of us humans still prefer a fellow human in the process of delivering packages to handle edge cases where things might go wrong.
- ghaff 3y agoHonestly, I don't expect a lot of skeet practice in general. But you need to beat the cost of USPS and Amazon delivery trucks which seem pretty efficient and--if not zero liability--at least liability that's been well established over a good hundred years. It's theoretically cool but once you get out of medical deliveries to remote areas it's not clear how practical it is.
- nmstoker 3y agoGreat question. I'm not aware of any concrete reasons, but I suppose issues relating to these sorts of points: - despite the sky being generally less constrained than ground delivery there are challenging obstructions, which are potentially far more risky than for ground travel: nudge past many ground obstructions you'd be okay, do the same in the sky, your drone is toast - liability is far greater in the sky if your drone carrying something comes down in an uncontrolled manner (on someone or something) - obstructions are likely to be high at the very points people are willing to come meet the drone (antennas, overhead power lines, washing lines, nets, etc) and they're often hard to spot - unattended drop off is harder for drones in the places where customers are most dense (ie cities) upping the complexity further - potential regulatory issues (but I understand below certain heights it's generally not regulated in many countries) - bad PR from noisy drones! - risks from non customers interfering - challenges with carrying what you're dropping off: if it's heavy you need bigger drones; if it's light you'd be tying up a drone with something small, unless you can figure how to drop off multiple items, or you have a mixture of drone sizes They all seem like they could plausibly be solved but I'm no drone engineer! Maybe it could get going with targeting particular items that are strongly appealing to customers and might narrow the complexities due to being more uniform than a random Amazon basket. I believe an early use in Bhutan was for medical deliveries. Maybe something premium like ice-cream or cocktails might appeal with the right marketing?!
- ghaff 3y agoFor small items, I sometimes get it delivered by an Amazon truck but a lot of the time it just comes from my USPS driver who is putting (mostly junk mail) in my inbox anyway. Anything I get frozen gets sent in a relatively big box with dry ice or ice packs.
- ilamont 3y agoJeff Bezos, 2013: "There's no reason they can't be effectively used as delivery vehicles" "It can't be before 2015, because that's the earliest that we can get the rules from the FAA. But it could be 4 or 5 years." - 10 mile radius from Amazon FC - half hour delivery - Objects up to 5 lbs, which is 86% of items Amazon delivered at that time Said the biggest problems were redundancy, reliability, and safety https://www.cbsnews.com/video/amazon-ceo-unveils-drone-delivery-concept/ https://www.cbsnews.com/video/amazon-ceo-unveils-drone-deliv...
- nonameiguess 3y agoThere are still pretty serious technical and engineering hurdles to overcome to make this kind of idea feasible. It was always hype without substance. But even assuming these challenges were overcome, which is inevitable eventually even if it's a century from now, I get the feeling this would largely end up getting banned in many places. I think regular people hanging out in their backyards and going for walks in the neighborhood would feel a vague persistent menace if there were constantly drones zipping around overhead. Think about the fact that you can load up a delivery truck with hundreds of packages at a time. Drones don't have that kind of cargo capacity. The fleet would need to be massive to replace truck deliveries. The sky would be full of them.
- Thoeu388 3y agoI seen some drones in Africa delivering small packages into remote villages, mostly medication. It is small RC airplane (not quad copter), dropping parashutes on an airfield. It replaced much bigger Cesnas. And drone delivery is quite successful at Ukraine...
- jurassicfoxy 3y agoMy friend had coffee delivered via drone (Canberra, Australia) and it was pretty fun. Certainly feels less wasteful (energetically) than a car & driver. The massive drone was pretty cool, too. That being said, Canberra is probably the perfect city for a drone delivery service, with so much open space.
- bryanlarsen 3y ago75% of blood deliveries in Rwanda outside Kigali are done via drone (flyzipline.com)
- Arrath 3y agoThis seems like the kind of high importance deliveries that drones could be utilized for, not brining me some munchies at 3am.
- aaron695 3y ago[dead]
- LawTalkingGuy 3y agoThey've built something really difficult and saved a lot of lives, let them make profit off of your desire for munchies.
- rbjorklin 3y agoFor those curious Mark Rober has a decent clip on this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOWDNBu9DkU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOWDNBu9DkU
- netsharc 3y agoIt's probably because exploiting humans with offering them "gig work" is still cheaper... that and bribing^W lobbying lawmakers to allow continuation said exploitation.
- bradgranath 3y agoSame thing that happened to self driving cars, bloodless blood tests, the 'Metaverse', and 'Social Media but with Nice People'. The point of the thing is to have an impossibile to achieve project that is nonetheless popular enough to generate endless rounds of new investment.
- pgorczak 3y agoFrom a European perspective: regulation is just catching up. Risk assessment and safety frameworks have been established and (non-autonomous) beyond line of sight operations are slowly becoming feasible to do on a regular basis. Operating many drones (+ manned vehicles) in the same airspace needs a traffic management solution (U-Space) which is also seeing some initial trial runs now.
- xnx 3y agoWing seems to be making solid real-world progress. They regularly post updates to YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Wing/videos https://www.youtube.com/@Wing/videos
- buzzologist 3y agoWing (Google) and a few others have it open to the public in suburbs in South East Queensland Australia atm. Have ordered a drink through door dash to try it out before and it seems to work pretty well. It wouldn't surprise me if the kinks are being ironed out here before opening it up in bigger markets. There were a fair few complaints about the noise for the logan ones when they first came out but apparently they are "mostly" sorted now. - https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSBrisbane/videos/logan-is-becoming-the-drone-delivery-capital-of-the-world/175969861006747/ https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSBrisbane/videos/logan-is-becom... - https://doordash.news/australia/doordash-and-wing-announce-pilot-program-to-make-drone-delivery-available-via-doordash-app-in-australia/ https://doordash.news/australia/doordash-and-wing-announce-p... - https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/wing-s-drone-delivery-services-land-in-ipswich.html https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/wing-s-drone-...
- protocolture 3y agoYeah my complaint is that they cant see my driveway and wont deliver to me. Its logan, so you know, kids on dirtbikes, dogs, road noise, fireworks, loud music etc I barely notice the drones.
- 8note 3y agoIt's kinda here, Zipline is delivering high value products to places that don't have good infrastructure, and has gotten some big inventions in propeller designs to get rid of noise.
- tyoma 3y agoThe “killer app” (pun intended) for drone delivery was precision delivery of high explosive munitions to their target. Increasingly, they also deliver supplies. At these tasks, they excel and are in so much demand that both sides of the Russian invasion of Ukraine can’t produce enough quantity to meet demand.
- rcxdude 3y agoThere's a trial near me of ground-based autonomous delivery robots (though it doesn't cover my area) which seems to have been pretty successful. People are using it and it seems to work pretty well from what my friends in the area have said. There have of course been a few hiccups but nothing major (it helps that the delivery robots are cute and will ask for help if they are stuck or need something like a button pushing to use a pedestrian crossing). The main limitation is that their range is only about 2 miles so they basically are only really saving you a quick trip to a nearby shop.
- sseagull 3y agoI live in an area with Wing drone delivery. On a typical day I hear approximately zero drones flying, and we have only personally used it 5-6 times in 3 years (mostly as a novelty to impress kids that are visiting). There isn't that great a selection of stuff that you can get, and some stores have come and gone from the app. It's just not that useful. We live in the suburbs, and a weekly trip to the grocery store or big box store (5-10 min drives) can get so much more and at a better price than buying things individually. It's kind of like milk delivery - it made sense before refrigeration but after that, you would buy weekly and just store it. And right now delivery is free, but it would be even worse if/when it isn't. One area where it could work is coffee/tea delivery (Starbucks, etc). These are things you buy individually and typically everyday. But AFAIK we don't have that and its not on the horizon.
- mattkevan 3y agoWe have autonomous robots that deliver groceries where we live, through a company called Starship. They definitely felt like the future when they first arrived, zipping along the pavement or waiting patiently to cross a road. My daughter loves counting them as we drive past.
- carabiner 3y agoGreat video on the current state of drone air delivery: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMqbj4Kj-z0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMqbj4Kj-z0 Basically Amazon is massively hampered by FAA regulations that say they can't fly drones beyond operator line of sight. In other words, the remote pilot must be able to see the drone at all times. It's also that drone delivery was never meant to replace all deliveries. It's only specific use cases where it is economical, such as delivery to a lone, rural house, where sending a car would be time consuming and expensive. You can get waivers for the line of sight rule but it requires sophisticated auto-avoidance tech that they're still working on (that must handle automated avoidance in rain or shine, night and day, clouds or not, winds and so on). So it's massively hard problem that was never meant to be a whole "wave" of next gen delivery.
- dheera 3y ago> Food delivery companies as well seemed to be testing out robots that would bring your food to you albeit in a more sidewalk bound way Former delivery robot startup cofounder (Robby Technologies) here. To be honest hardware was by far the most time-consuming thing. I wanted to spend 80%+ of our engineering time and funds on software but it turned out that we ended up spending 80%+ of the time dealing with electromechanical issues, supply chain issues, bad USB cables, motor controller issues, shitty crimping jobs, thermal management, plastic breakage, bad PCBs, bad BMS, bad lithium cells, snapping drive belts, malfunctioning locks, malfunctioning cameras, manufacturer-mislabeled motor wires, sensors that didn't meet specs, antenna placement and RF interference, and lots more. Then there was the operational overhead of figuring out how to charge, move, and store all of them, and how to get things in/out of them when businesses weren't willing to walk from the store to the sidewalk to drop something in a robot, and the customers weren't always willing to come outside to grab their stuff. Then there were robots that got stuck in potholes and the like, and had to be rescued by driving out to them. All that while trying to scale up manufacturing, which never really happened beyond a certain scale. Guess how much time we had left for writing autonomous software. The thing is, autonomous driving, especially on the sidewalk is actually much easier than the hardware problem of figuring out how to design, build, and scale a new type of vehicle from scratch. The main issue is we, and likely all the other companies, were stuck in a hellhole of hardware problems that something was always "on fire" hardware-wise. In retrospect I see the companies that went to the roads instead of the sidewalks had it slightly easier on the hardware side: they could just buy a reliable car and mod it, and get to work on software. Safety-wise, of course, they have it much harder, it's a trade-off.
- mNovak 3y agoThanks for sharing your story honestly. These are things I wish investors understood -- building good HW is just not as sexy as computer vision on the pitch deck
- doug_life 3y agoI live in a Durham, NC and there is a small radius where a company called Flytrex does drone food delivery. We use it every couple weeks since they have almost no fees unlike Uber Eats. From what I understand they place the order, drive a car to pick up your food, drive back to the launch pad, then load and send the drone. It then drops the food using a long cable that leaves behind a reusable bag in your front lawn. It’s surprisingly accurate since it has about a 15ft diameter circle to hit in my front yard to avoid trees and the house. The one downside is the weight limit and weather. If you go over something like 8 pounds then the drone will fly what it can and someone will follow begging in a car with the remainder. Bad weather means car delivery.
- silisili 3y agoFascinating. But curious how it can operate without higher fees? There's still the person driving to the place, waiting for the order, then driving back to launch. In fact, it almost feels like this would be more expensive in many cases than just bringing it straight over. Burning VC money?
- fonix 3y agoIm in a different Flytrex delivery area and I don’t have exact answers but probably some insight. There is a strip mall or two with like 15 restaurants and these are the ones on their service so the driving is really under a mile. Also they seemingly have a new 30% off code for one particular restaurant every few days, likely to funnel orders and make the “last mile” delivery person able to batch pick up. The drone really only took under 4 minutes to fly to my house (I was on the outer edge of the delivery ring so it’s gotta be the furthest atm). They don’t have to deal with traffic or 3rd party delivery drivers. From hitting order to my first bite was under 30 minutes (on my second order, my first order was super late but they comped me - the first delivery they have a member watch the drone land in your yard to ensure it’s working).
- JeremyNT 3y agoThis seems necessarily what is going on here. They still have all the human labor except for the last ~10 minutes of driving time.
- PhaedrusV 3y agoThe technology hasn't demonstrated the required level of reliability yet. Several companies are getting close, and and early attempts by the companies listed in this thread have paved the way for the FAA to start rolling out the process for scalable compliance. Up until very recently it's all been "approval by waiver/exception", which is very slow, while the FAA figures out along with everyone else what success looks like. Currently there's approvals in limited areas in the US for testing, and several companies are approved for significant steps towards our shared dream of 5 minute burrito deliveries to our back patios. Nobody has gotten approved for blanket deliveries yet; the safety levels aren't quite there. Plug: End State Solutions consults and supports companies in developing the conops, safety case, and approval packages. Reach out once your drone company has a design you're ready to freeze for the approval process and we'll help you out. Our team got Insitu and Matternet the first ever commercial UAS type certificates issued by the FAA.
- er4hn 3y agoZeyi Yang from China Report at MIT Tech Review had a story on how well it's going in China: https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/05/23/1073500/drone-food-delivery-shenzhen-meituan/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/05/23/1073500/drone-fo.... The BLUF is it still requires a fair amount of human labor and it works way better when it can go to a designated pickup point. His teaser for the article also had a more detailed story about how he kept on getting human drivers delivering him milk teas when he wanted a drone, but that might just be an aside about the cost of human labor in China and how the system schedules the delivery method.
- dralley 3y ago>The BLUF is it still requires a fair amount of human labor and it works way better when it can go to a designated pickup point. If you need a designated pickup point, it would seem like the already-existing Amazon pickup box system would be a better choice.
- CSMastermind 3y agoI think that Wendover has the best summary: https://youtu.be/J-M98KLgaUU https://youtu.be/J-M98KLgaUU Here's the tl;dr: The "last foot" problem is the biggest killer. Getting a drone into the air and to its target is not the hard problem - getting a package safely to the ground at someone's home is. It would require either a very specific neighborhood or a big advance in computer vision and AI tech. Where we have seen success in this space are places with dedicated delivery zones in controlled environments where existing transport infrastructure is not a good alternative. Also this quote: "most people are simply willing to wait two or three days to receive their package while ALL customers wants their packages delivered as cheaply and simply as possible." Uber eats and door dash largely solve the problem that drone delivery was supposed to solve and if you're going to have autonomous delivery doing it via ground robots is much easier than trying to do it from a drone.
- ghaff 3y agoAnd I'm pretty sure none of those prepared food or even meal kit companies actually made money so once the free money evaporated people weren't generally willing to pay what it cost to get a cold soggy hamburger delivered.
- kgwxd 3y agoRon Swanson quietly saved us all. You wouldn't know it, because he'll seek no credit.
- orangepurple 3y agoI posit two major reasons. 1. Command and control - Human in the loop is still a necessity because common delivery environments are too complex for an algorithm to navigate successfully so far. 2. Energy - it takes too long to recharge a drone battery pack. Flying is very energy intensive and there just isn't a way to refuel fast enough from the hub for this to make sense yet. The tested, working alternative is to use a two stroke engine but the pollution per mile from those is astronomical.
- romusha 3y agoIt wasn't going to happen to begin with cuz it was a dumb idea conceived by teenagers
- breaker1 3y agoThey... failed to deliver (I'll see myself out)
- mortenjorck 3y agoI interviewed a few months ago with one of the leaders in the space, and when I asked the HM my standard “what do you see as the biggest challenge facing the business right now” I got a surprising answer: “the weather.” My sense is that drone delivery has the same weather dependency as self-driving cars, only greatly magnified.
- rkagerer 3y agoI'm not surprised at all - that was the every first constraint that came to mind when I first heard about this idea.
- onlyrealcuzzo 3y agoLabor ~60% of delivery cost: https://www.dispatchtrack.com/blog/last-mile-delivery-costs-breakdown https://www.dispatchtrack.com/blog/last-mile-delivery-costs-... If people have the option to get a package ~10% slower for ~60% cheaper, they'll take the slower option the vast majority of the time. I would have assumed that the savings in labor would be eaten by drones using more energy, but it looks like drones can actually be significantly more energy efficient than light-trucks for delivery: https://engineering.cmu.edu/news-events/news/2022/09/16-last-mile-drones.html https://engineering.cmu.edu/news-events/news/2022/09/16-last... Energy is the second biggest input in delivery cost.
- emodendroket 3y agoI doubt the cost for the drone is 0% of the cost of having a guy operate a truck.
- emacsen 3y agoNot 0%, but a drone center can have a few people operating many drones, so the labor cost is distributed there too.
- emacsen 3y agoThis is unintuivite at first, but makes sense. As we approach last mile, economies of scale begin to not only diminish, but invert. Let me put it another way... it's very inefficient to move cargo by a fleet of cars vs a fleet of trucks, and it's even more efficient to move cargo by train. But it would be terribly inefficient to move that train to your home. A UPS truck is more efficient than a train, and a guy on a bike might be more efficient than a UPS truck, other than labor. But if we can get an autonomous vehicle, then the labor goes away, and if the delivery drone is electric, then it can largely be very efficient- going point to point in a straight line. I hadn't thought about it before, but it makes so much sense.
- poopsmithe 3y agoLong story short, It's the FAA's fault. Initially they said, "no, you can't do that" because there are no regulations for that. With pressure from companies, the FAA took years to create the rules to make drone deliveries legal. Finally there is some regulatory framework. Drones have to be specifically designed and manufactured to pass the FAA's certification program. We've all seen capable drones from Amazon's marketing, but does it please the FAA? A drone can't do the job until the FAA signs off on that make/model. It's not easy to do and requires developing a craft with all sorts of safety features. Companies are making progress, and I think the most insightful videos to watch on the topic come from Zipline. They're already operating in Rwanda with support from their government. They have a streamlined service and make 100s of deliveries per day.
- jebarker 3y agoZipline's work in Rwanda is really inspiring. I love that they are doing real good in the world first and can leverage that to grow their commercial business.
- Shawnj2 3y agoZip line also works because it’s for rural areas that don’t have a good road network, in the US driving would almost certainly be faster.
- MostlyStable 3y agoI imagine it depends on the size of delivery. Even with extremely good roads, zipline would probably be faster (I can't imagine that flying in a straight line is _ever_ slower than driving), just lower bandwidth. Single small package? Zipline is probably much faster. Many and/or large packages? Driving is almost certainly faster. Good roads don't change this basic fact, they just change the break even point.
- lolinder 3y agoTo be fair, this sounds like the FAA is doing its job. Tiny consumer drones are one thing, but if there are going to be fleets of drones carrying packages all over my city, I'll take a slow and thorough FAA over move fast and break things.
- HumblyTossed 3y agoThe people who pumped it up made enough money from the pump that they moved on to the next shiny.
- press-any-key 3y agoThe first time a drone is ingested into a jet engine, the news headlines will explode and all drones will be grounded for a long time, if not forever. Only takes one not following rules.
- jillesvangurp 3y agoA brief survey of the replies in this comment thread (beyond the dismissive comments) reveals that there are in fact several small scale and ongoing uses of delivery drones in a variety of urban and rural settings. It's obviously not a mass market yet but there are enough of those that you can't simply dismiss the technology as unworkable. Because clearly there are some minor successes here and there. There are a few things where you could expect some progress to happen over time: - FAA regulations are evolving and called out as an obstacle. But that's just the US of course. Keep an eye on countries like China which is in any case where a lot of the components are being developed. They are not waiting for FAA approval over there. And that's also the reason you can expect the FAA to be adapting over time. - Cost is a big factor. The war time use of drones is a case where the use case justifies a higher cost as it means exposing less humans to enemy fire. Losses are high and yet it seems a highly successful niche use for drones even with the current state of the art in technology. Drones are being used successfully in places like the Ukraine, Yemen, and in other conflict zones. As cost comes down, that also opens up more civilian use cases. - Battery tech is improving. CATL recently launched a 500wh/kg battery product intended for drone companies. Mass production of these is probably going to be a few years down the line. But the technology is shipping this year and not just some proof of concept kind of thing. For most current drones, that would be a doubling of battery capacity; which is a big deal of course. Bigger batteries are under development by a range of companies. Higher capacity, faster charging, lower cost, etc. batteries are coming to market. - Several cities now have autonomous taxis. Both inside and outside the US. China especially seems very bullish and aggressive on this front. Mostly that's aimed at human transport but the extension to goods delivery seems like it's a logical next step. This stuff seems to be ramping up in more and more cities over the next decade or so. - A lot of factories already deploy autonomous vehicles on factory floors. Particularly automotive companies have been investing in this. Mostly that's about delivering parts in the workplace. - Companies like Tesla, Boston Dynamics, etc. have been developing autonomous robots that can move around and operate in more chaotic places. It seems like these could ultimately also get involved in delivery use cases. So, the future is coming. It might not be in the form some people are expecting. Or happening at the (unrealistic) pace they seem to be expecting it. Hardware just isn't like software. It takes time to develop and it takes more time to ramp up manufacturing. And you don't do that before you have a market. The road from a handful to hundreds to thousands to hundreds of thousands units is just very long and not a straight line. There is a lot of stuff happening right now. And we're past the point where you can dismiss a lot of this stuff as impossible because there are countless working proofs of concept and real world products challenging that notion already.
- press-any-key 3y agoWhen a drone gets ingested by a jet engine, all drones will be grounded for a long time, if not forever. It only takes one not following the rules.
- gwbas1c 3y agoEvery time I've heard about drone delivery; it was either implied or directly stated that it would take a long time to be generally available. It's easy to forget that, historically, "tech" would often take decades to develop. (The rapid changes we saw in the 1990s and early 2000s is unusual.) One thing that I think would be interesting is "hybrid" drone delivery: A delivery truck could drive to a central location, and then a "swarm" of drones could drop off packages at homes within a small radius.
- john_q_public 3y agoI would argue that the changes you refer to around the turn of the millennium were not in fact all that rapid, but rather the more publicly visible phase of a more gradual change that started no later than 1969 (when ARPANET went live), perhaps well before that date.
- destructuredObj 3y agoGround delivery drones are making great strides. They're not uncommon in larger restaurants where I live, and they're also being used in the hotel industry for making deliveries from the front desk to someone's room. I expect we'll be seeing street delivery drones like this soon as well in very high density urban areas. Aerial drone delivery however ends up requiring additional infrastructure and is far too expensive for what it's trying to accomplish, particularly because of the small payload requirements. Maybe that will change in the near future, but I still think we're a long way away.
- thedougd 3y agoThere are food delivery drones near me. Two recent data points: 1) They’re expanding the delivery territory. 2) They’re still using pilots with line of sight to make the delivery. I think that’s odd. Maybe someone is moving the goalposts, or maybe there’s not a clear roadmap to broad approval.
- tdeck 3y agoWhen you say "line of sight" do you mean via camera, or that someone literally has to drive out and watch the drone land? The latter seems to not make much sense but that's what I think of when I read the phrase.
- thedougd 3y agoSomeone drives out and watches the drone land. If you order drinks, they bring them in the car.
- JohnFen 3y agoWhich seems to eliminate all of the benefits of drone delivery. If someone is driving out anyway, they could just deliver the stuff directly.
- thedougd 3y agoWell of course. I assume it's to prove the concept safe to gain approval to fly without a person present. But here we are, no such approval, and they're expanding territory. Why? To be challenged by more diversity in delivery situations? It doesn't seem like they have a clear path to success.
- alexfromapex 3y agoThe margins aren’t there yet
- naikrovek 3y agoit was determined that the drones created too much wind, worsening the global airspeed crisis. hard to justify them after that.
- ggm 3y agodelivery of drugs across flood ravaged infrastructure, or for temporary wifi/cell antenna (ruinously costly in battery life) -check. checking wildlife with lower impact, finding wildlife and feral animals and lost hikers -check taking aerial photos for weddings and documentaries -check routine, bladerunner-esque floods of drones sending me parcels.. un-checked.
- marricks 3y agoIt's funny cause those talks happened when labor was relatively cheaper, similar with the "we'll just replace fast food workers with robots." Now that labor is even less readily available we're talking about it... less. And that's even off that back of low interest rates and easier money for such initiatives.
- protocolture 3y ago[flagged]
- bamboozled 3y ago[flagged]
- john_q_public 3y ago[flagged]
- MengerSponge 3y agoDrones are promising for longer-range deliveries, where they gain some competitive efficiencies. The Rangelov brothers' Dronamics is doing really cool work in that space. https://foundersfactory.com/articles/dronamics/ https://foundersfactory.com/articles/dronamics/
- hot_gril 3y agoFed increased rates, and the idea didn't make sense without so much free money.
- dudeomfgstfux 3y agoI was thinking about this as everyone is talking about A.I. Taking over and being the next big thing. Ironic how I googled about drones and this came up
- solumunus 3y agoAs with most of robotics, it's cheaper and easier to get humans to do it.
- hmmmcurious1 3y agoThey're working quite well in Ukraine
- animal531 3y agoIt's a bit like all the "new" airship startups, every year or so (for the last 25) I've heard of another one starting up.
- Hackbraten 3y agoDHL was the only major German logistics company that openly talked about their delivery drone research project, which had been going on for years until they killed it in 2021. They never gave a specific reason for pulling out, but people with industry knowledge said that one of the reasons was that due to limitations of airspace vs. billions of packages the German logistics industry handles, drone delivery at scale is not going to be a thing.
- babelchips 3y agoI saw this video clip recently and it looks like people are building the infrastructure in the background. Reliable ground based sensors are an important area being addressed. https://twitter.com/thehbarbull/status/1659167041062944770/mediaviewer https://twitter.com/thehbarbull/status/1659167041062944770/m...
- ryanmercer 3y agoI don't know if it has been shared in this thread but Mark Rober did a video earlier this year about drones actively doing medical deliveries in Africa https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOWDNBu9DkU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOWDNBu9DkU
- paulcole 3y agoExploiting people is cheap enough for now.
- rchaud 3y agoI fully expect "discourse" on this topic to magically find its way back into the news cycle should labour strikes in the US spread to UPS and other freight unions.
- walleeee 3y agoIt was always a gimmick with a very limited cost-effective timeline. In the future we will (rightly) view DoorDash and the like as a relic of a uniquely profligate era, I suspect, whether it is a drone or a car/driver delivering. Sending life-saving medicine to a remote township with a drone makes sense. Drone-drop pizzas do not, given planetary circumstances. For that matter, neither does the whole institution of single-meal delivery.
- bhealy 3y agoDrone delivery is alive and well - and high volume from my company Manna Drone Delivery. Doing about 300 flights a day now in DUblin, and expanding soon to 1,000 a day. Video of a weekends worth of deliveries here-: https://youtu.be/0lFT_K47Pa4 https://youtu.be/0lFT_K47Pa4
- nvm0n1 3y agoThat's in a small town not Dublin proper, right? Gotta say that's a huge number of deliveries for a weekend in a place with only 30,000 people living there. Was that weekend during a special offer?
- jaclaz 3y agoDo you have an actual video of one of your drones flying and delivering stuff?
- papower 3y agoTake a look at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCnpxmhWRuw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCnpxmhWRuw - pretty high level but does show the deliveries in action.
- sethammons 3y agohttps://www.wired.com/story/drones-have-transformed-blood-delivery-in-rwanda/ https://www.wired.com/story/drones-have-transformed-blood-de... Not groceries, but blood delivery in Africa is a thing
- monkaiju 3y agoIm sure it turned out just not to be profitable, and thank goodness. Would be absolutely hellish having them buzzing around regularly.
- hombre_fatal 3y agoI have a hard time seeing how drones would be compatible with any society that places any value on silence or has any stance against noise pollution. For example, how many people would have to hear the drone zipping by to deliver someone some hair scrunchies or paperclips or whatever? The asymmetry makes no sense to me long before you get into the other issues.
- JohnFen 3y agoThe noise issue is why I am very resistant to the entire idea of drone delivery. Drones are very noisy, and the kind of noise they make is particularly irritating and tends to go through walls pretty well. The idea of having to hear them around my home on a daily basis is far from appealing.
- QuantumG 3y agoIt's a problem you could solve with ion-wind and far-field wireless power transfer... or just blimps.
- amai 3y agoAll the drones are in Ukraine and are delivering bombs to the the enemy.
- BWStearns 3y agoA ton of companies wanted to basically do intracity delivery but with with drones. It’s crazy hard airspace, hard from a technical standpoint wrt obstacle avoidance, and ultimately you’re competing against going downstairs and getting your own toothpaste. There’s not a ton of margin. There were also a lot of efforts at more rural delivery schemes but mostly they’re working with quadcopter or hybrid designs which requires a ton of mass being dedicated to power. This restricts your flight time to about 30min and payload to a couple pounds (with some trade off function allowing more or less of one or the other). Even without regulation this means your delivery radius is on the order of a couple miles which means you’re competing against getting in the car or waiting a day. I think the drone delivery concept is (without magic batteries) DOA if you’re talking about electric powered drones to areas that already have good 0-2 day options to get the thing you’re talking about delivering. Using gas powered autonomous drones to deliver large payloads to remote areas with decent landing spots seems viable. I’m working on an air to ground glider drone prototype that can maybe be useful for “too far/logistically difficult for fast ground delivery but doesn’t have a prepared strip” but that requires being dropped from an aircraft so it needs to be worth the fractional cost of the flight etc. Tl;dr: The power required to fly things, battery power density, and the geographical distribution of demand for delivery don’t seem to love each other.
- badpun 3y agoI'm not sure people would tolerate their cities being filled with constant annoying drone buzzing.
- trenchgun 3y agoCurrently delivery drones are working overtime in Ukraine.