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UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

103 points by cirrus-clouds 4y ago

cirrus-clouds 4y ago
Summary of the FT article: - Investment bank Citigroup forecasts UK inflation will hit 18.6 per cent in January 2023 — the highest peak in almost half a century — because of soaring wholesale gas prices. - The bank predicted that the country’s retail energy price cap — which limits how much the average household pays for heating and electricity — would be raised to £4,567 in January and then £5,816 in April (approx $6880, €6850) compared with the current level of £1,971 a year. It added that the shifts would lead to inflation “entering the stratosphere”. - UK and European wholesale natural gas prices are already trading at close to 10 times normal levels and other forecasters have also raised their inflation predictions. - The energy regulator Ofgem will on Friday (26 Aug) announce the energy price cap for the period between October and January, which most analysts expect to rise to more than £3,500 for a household with average usage of energy — an increase of 75 per cent on current levels. Related article from Reuters: Europe's efforts to shield households from soaring energy costs https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europes-efforts-shield-households-soaring-energy-costs-2022-08-15/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europes-efforts-shie...
LatteLazy 4y ago
A Mix of Brexit, an aging population, massive underinvestment in basically everything, covid mishandling and huge debt means the UK is around year 0 of a lost decade. I will leave if I can.
- cirrus-clouds 4y ago
  On top of that, we have a zombie goverment with no solutions or urgency to tackle the cost-of-living crisis.
  - LatteLazy 4y ago
    And our political system basically guarantees the same people will be in charge until Jan 2025?! 2015 me would never have believed how rapidly things could fall apart.
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- parenthesis 4y ago
  Don't worry! Move up here to Scotland. The SNP assures us that all our problems will be solved as soon as we are independent! (Edit: I probably shouldn't have made this comment. Let's just say I am not disagreeing with you.)
  - ThePadawan 4y ago
    Thank you for still making it. I often make comments I feel I need to, and later succumb to the stupid social network reaction of "oh no 3 people downvoted it, surely that means 3 people hate me and no one agrees". Sometimes things need to be said regardless.
- breckenedge 4y ago
  Since this is also related to higher energy prices, do you think the invasion on Ukraine is also a contributing factor? Although if that were the case, we’d also see as high of inflation in other European countries?
  - weberer 4y ago
    Yes, we're seeing inflation rates across the board above 10%, which is where the UK sits today. Estonia is the highest at 23%. https://www.statista.com/statistics/225698/monthly-inflation-rate-in-eu-countries/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/225698/monthly-inflation...
  - toomuchtodo 4y ago
    Moving to a European country with less industry and a moderate climate closer to the Med would blunt energy costs for someone (lower energy demand = less energy spend).
  - rsynnott 4y ago
    That's definitely a contributor, but, as you say, it's generally worse in the UK than in other large European countries. This whole thing is a bit of a perfect storm for the UK.
    - automatic6131 4y ago
      Have you heard of the plight of an even larger European country? Hint: it rhymes with Burmany. It's bad in the UK, to imagine it's the worst in the UK vs Europe is to show your ignorance.
      - rsynnott 4y ago
        Germany's warning that inflation may hit or slightly exceed 10% by end of year, which, to be clear, is very bad, but is less bad than 18.6%.
  - Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
    CF Industries shut down their two nitrogen fertilizer plants in the U.K. back in September 2021 due to high natural gas prices.
- deleted 4y ago
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- twelfthnight 4y ago
  Honest question: Where would you go?
  - Aromasin 4y ago
    I've recently started the move over to the Netherlands. The things that were keeping me in the UK (the last vestiges of our socialist governmental policies) have been torn to shreds by the current Tory government. I've also lost any hope that the British public will try to fight for it back. It feels like people are accepting a slip back into feudalism with open arms.
  - azangru 4y ago
    Peter Zeihan thinks that the US is in the best position to weather the coming years :-)
    - archagon 4y ago
      The US is at great risk of becoming an authoritarian, single-party dystopia in the coming years. (Yes, I mean the Republicans.)
  - LatteLazy 4y ago
    Most places. I wouldn't work in the Middle East for moral reasons. I'd go to the US or Canada happily. I'd go to the EU. Singapore has a company office and Australia is great from what I saw on holiday. I have a chat scheduled with my boss in Sept, I might start sounding out a transfer.
- throwaway6734 4y ago
  I understand where you're coming from, but try not to get too pessimistic. The UK has made i through much worse and come out the other end.
  - data_maan 4y ago
    Past success is not a good predictor. Probably the Roman senators at the end of the Roman Empire also thought "oh well, we've been dragging our feet lately, but somehow things will work out". I would say the most likely outcome is a further diminishing of the UKs international importance, together with some risk of Scotland breaking apart.
    - throwaway6734 4y ago
      None of the situations we face today are remotely close to the difficulty to those faced by the Romans at the end of the western empire
- Latty 4y ago
  I recently went to a small event for a friend, and among the 30-40 young professionals there, this was the resounding mood: the country is fucked and only getting worse, is there a way out? Just generally no one expects things to get better. Standard of living is going down the drain, building stability by buying a house comes with absurd cost. I think we are heading for a tipping point. Public services are probably already past a point where staff quitting is piling more work on those left, resulting in more people quitting. I suspect there will be a terminal snowball which guts the NHS at least and leaves it unable to function (by design of the Tories, of course). I suspect the brain drain will be similar. Young people don't want to live in some tax haven, they want a country that functions. Brexit has made it harder, but people will find a way eventually. People were talking Canada, the Netherlands, etc... (Notably for here, very much not the US which is seen as having all of the same problems the UK has).
- satysin 4y ago
  I moved from the UK to [redacted]. While I could not predict the pandemic nor the war in Ukraine I did expect things to get worse in the UK post-Brexit which is why when the UK voted to leave back in 2016 my wife and I started planning to move. It took a couple of years to get things all sorted and we moved in August 2018. We are actually back in the UK this week visiting family who asked if we miss living here and my wife and I just looked at each other and said "nope!" in unison. It is hard to explain it in a short post here but the UK just doesn't feel "like home" to me anymore. I am not saying [redacted] is perfect. But our quality of life is much higher in [redacted] than it was in the UK and we are both very happy we followed through and moved.
NickRandom 4y ago
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/22/citi-projects-uk-inflation-to-breach-18percent-in-january-as-energy-prices-skyrocket.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/22/citi-projects-uk-inflation-t... (alternate link)
jdkee 4y ago
“ It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grams a week. And only yesterday […] it had been announced that the ration was to be reduced to twenty grams a week. Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours? Yes, they swallowed it. [...] The eyeless crature at the other table swallowed it fanatically. passionately, with a furious desire to track down, denounce, and vaporize anyone who should suggest that last week the ration had been thirty grams. Syme, too-in some more double complex way, involving doublethink-Syme, swallow it. Was he, then, alone in the possession of a memory?” George Orwell, 1984.
- tankenmate 4y ago
  Hope is in such short supply in large parts of the UK that false hope, demonstrably false hope, and even doublespeak-esque cynically lying false hope can take hold. And so a chunk of the masses vacillate between "I believe virtually everything I read, and I think that is what makes me more of a selective human than someone who doesn't believe anything."[0] and "Game over man, Game Over."[1] [0] This is Spinal Tap [1] Aliens
CommanderData 4y ago
We have a corrupt government and media that itch each others back. There's still a complete lack of urgency. A potential new prime minister trying to defend profits of energy companies recently on TV just shows you the Modus operandi of the political class. It might push people to riots in the streets.
- mellosouls 4y ago
  Didn't happen with the bankers 10 years ago, I'm not sure that normal people have the inclination or fight.
  - blowski 4y ago
    Some would say they rioted in the ballot box, via the Brexit referendum.
  - yourusername 4y ago
    While a lot of people lost money during the banking crisis a lot of people were unaffected. The current inflation crisis means the bottom quartile will probably start to go hungry and be unable to afford to heat their homes. It's not like those people were saving 20-30% of their income 2 years ago and they're now spending 20% of their income on heating and their groceries got 20% more expensive and fuel (for driving) increased by 50-100%.
  - sudden_dystopia 4y ago
    True but that was “just” a bad recession, but we never actually recovered from it. Now we are the brink of global war, reeling from Covid supply chain issues, and stagflation all on top of a world economy that has been propped up by central banks for the past decade while simultaneously exploding the money supply and essentially making internet rates zero. This is the world on modern monetary theory. Not even once.
  - mattmanser 4y ago
    Most UK cities had big occupy protests, we had one in my city in the UK for quite a while.
rvieira 4y ago
I live in the north of England where temperature varies from 38F in Jan to 57F in August. It's pretty chilly for me, so I tend to spend a considerable amount of gas throughout the year. I'm renting a house, so deep work like insulation gets complicated. My point is that even with a comfortable salary, I will feel ~£600/month in energy. I can only fear for people that earn much less than me.
- Symbiote 4y ago
  Why have you converted the temperatures to Fahrenheit? It hasn't been used in BBC weather forecasts in Britain since the 1960s.
  - rvieira 4y ago
    People living in the UK already know the north is chilly, no need to quantify it. I have the impression that the overwhelming majority of HN is from the US, and "chilly" can mean different things depending where you're from.
    - Hnrobert42 4y ago
      As an American on holiday in the UK, I appreciate the Fahrenheit. My impression of the readership is that it depends on the time of day. When I was in Vietnam, I would wake up to US centric posts full of comments. When I wake up early on the East Coast of the US (~6:30 am) I see more comments from Europe/UK. By mid afternoon, most of the posters seem to be from the US or at least the Americas. I base this on about 5 years of daily HN reading. I infer the posters’ locations from spelling, grammar, but most often their own admission. Nonetheless, this is just anecdata.
  - ghostwriter 4y ago
    it reminds me of this BBC video from 70s regarding the public opinion on the metric system https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykthWUdkhu0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykthWUdkhu0
  - missedthecue 4y ago
TrackerFF 4y ago
Hopefully the current energy crisis (in Europe) will further accelerate development in renewable energy. Seems much of Europe is still chained to LNG, and that demand is even wreaking havoc in countries which have been previously quite self-sustained, or really don't use LNG much themselves - with Norway being a good example.
- pydry 4y ago
  Unfortunately we'd need another 5 years to really make a difference whereas the gas crisis is going to hit us in months.
  - DawnQFunk2 4y ago
    - yourusername 4y ago
      It's a bit more real in Europe. Here in the Netherlands for many people their gas bill went up hundreds of Euro's a month. My electricity and gas rates are 2.5x what they were in 2020. The average family spending a additional 10% of their income of heating isn't what i would call "nothing"
    - pydry 4y ago
      Based upon the price of gas jumps 150% in summer time when Russia coughs. This isnt a crisis. The taps arent even off and it's summer. Russia turning off the taps in winter would be a crisis.
  - Someone1234 4y ago
    True. But 5-years ago this national security reliance on foreign gas prices was well known, and little was done in the intervening time. The worry is that when the current crisis subsides that inaction will yet again fall back into favor. The solutions are, in part: - National gas storage reserve (to buffet price/supply spikes somewhat). - Expansion of green energy. - Programs to reduce usage (e.g. home and business improvements). Luckily for the UK extremely efficient heat pump based heating/cooling solutions that offer greater than 100% efficiency exist[0]. It is just a matter of the political will to covert away from gas to electricity and then retrofitting homes. [0] https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/heat-pump-systems https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/heat-pump-systems
chrisstu 4y ago
A looming catastrophe in the UK and the government is doing nothing. I've seen some crazy stuff here over the last 12 years but this is next level.
- data_maan 4y ago
  No, it is definitely doing something: Arresting people that protest for housing insulation.
  - ehvatum 4y ago
    They’re arrested for being street-blocking twats, to the cheers of everyone with somewhere to be. Pooling donations to install insulation would have been fine. But no. No interest in that.
- weberer 4y ago
  What should they do?
- azangru 4y ago
  > and the government is doing nothing. What do you think the government should do?
  - Latty 4y ago
    Tax those who can afford it to help those that can't. At some point if the rich continue to demand sacrifice of the poor to prop up their gathering of wealth, it'll be guillotines in the streets. Historically Britain's upper class has been sensible at offering compromise to avoid extreme change, but it appears the current crop think their control of the media is enough to keep the population placid while they suffer. So far, they appear to have been right. Who knows how long that'll continue as things get significantly harder for the average person.
    - mathverse 4y ago
      The problem with the approach of "tax this and tax that" is that it often ends up hurting the lower and middle classes the most. I am very skeptical about any new taxes aiming for wealth distribution that are not very explicit about who should pay that tax.
_448 4y ago
With two candidates for the next UK PM having polar opposite views on how to fix the economy, who do you think is more correct in their proposal: Sunak or Truss?
- kshacker 4y ago
  Care to explain the opposite views? They both come from the same party so presumably have lot in common as opposed to Labor and LibDems.
  - philipwhiuk 4y ago
    Truss thinks trickle down economics of cutting taxing to business will generate growth and stimulate prospects for poor people. Sunak thinks taxing businesses and the well off so that we can fund support to the less well off is the right approach. Labour and Lib Dems are further left in that they want to cut off any growth in electricity prices and maybe nationalise electricity firms.
    - kshacker 4y ago
      Yeah did not expect any different from Labor and Lib Dems, was curious about the 2 candidates. Interesting to see Sunak taking a non "modern conservative" approach, quite different from Grover Norquist school of thought. Wonder if any R candidate from the American side would even be able to take such a stance.
- Latty 4y ago
  Assuming one has to be "more correct" is a fool's errand. You are talking about the dregs of an already corrupt and ideologically (rather than evidence) driven party that was further culled to only those who were willing to support the current inept and corrupt PM. The Tories are so out of ideas and people with any talent or charisma, they think these two are the best they have to offer. Both have literally nothing to address this except doubling down on fantasy economics that we can see hasn't worked up to this point.
- simonswords82 4y ago
rob_c 4y ago
- philipwhiuk 4y ago
  Right because the virus caused Russia to invade more of Ukraine?
  - rob_c 4y ago
    Out of the blue yes, for no reason yes, no change that would force their hand yes, nothing impacting the global economy yes ...
- jbd28 4y ago
  - rob_c 4y ago
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  Meanwhile: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/18/silent-crisis-soaring-excess-deaths-gripping-britain-tip-iceberg/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/18/silent-crisis-so...
  - rob_c 4y ago
    Yes the 5% of mostly under 50s in the UK who refused any jab are all secretly dying... Oh wait, im still here... Edit: there will be much more to come when gran can't afford to heat herself at winter. The marginal "200k we think we maybe saved" will be shadowed by the damage of the next 2-5 years I fear. I would love to be wrong. Edit2: apologies I was trying to be whitty, unlike those in charge of policy.
jongjong 4y ago
I've been whining about how unjust and non-meritocratic the current economy has been for the last 5 years and look at that... These insane inflation numbers are proving me right. I'm quite sure the inflation will continue too. My detractors were in fact gaslighting me the whole time, as I suspected. The people at the top today are incompetent and lack principles. No better than the corrupt dictators of uncivilized nations. I almost get satisfaction seeing them driving that sinking ship all the way to the seafloor. That's the most meritocratic thing I've seen in a decade.
- evandijk70 4y ago
  Why are these numbers proving you right? Those people that made an decision to transition to a sustainable lifestyle by: - Isolate their house and/or live in a small, well isolated apartment - Buy solar panels and a heatpump. - Save gas by wearing an extra sweater and setting the thermostat a bit lower. are affected far less by this massive inflation. Of course, for the 37% in the UK that do not own a house (probably because they cannot afford it) and/or convince their landlord to isolate their property, it is unjust. Since more people own their house than rent it seems that this particular inflation wave makes the economy more just rather than less just, given that the biggest polluters are hit the the hardest.
  - M2Ys4U 4y ago
    Even for the people that own their own home there's also the capital required to install insulation, solar panels or a heat pump. How many of those home owners do you think have tens of thousands of pounds just laying around that they can spend on those upgrades? (and that's after taking in to consideration the grants available)
    - evandijk70 4y ago
      If you look at the amount of cars driving around in the UK (similarly priced as all the upgrades combined), probably most homeowners. Also, if someone does not have sufficient capital, there are subsidised lease options for all upgrades.
data_maan 4y ago
Three things: 1 Renewables: The solution exists already but no gov't (in particular the UK) is implementing it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/100%25_renewable_energy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/100%25_renewable_energy 2 The UK gov't rather is arresting people demonstrating for housing insulation. This is probably the dumbest thing a gov't can do, since insulation is a "bipartisan" issue and everybody would profit from it. 3 On top of this the UK is on the verge of picking a fight with the EU and risking a trade war by its illegal and unilateral changes to the Brexit agreement. NI political issues aside, no sane gov't would do that at this point in time.
- automatic6131 4y ago
  If you glue yourself to a road, you could be supporting an end to pedophilia, but I'll still cheer the coppers arresting you so I can go where I want.
  - data_maan 4y ago
    Somehow this sounds to me like you would rather support pedophilia than see your precious right to "go where you want" restricted. Standard hedonism of the typical climate change deniers here. Go on, people, nothing to see ...
    - alt227 4y ago
      A common short sited assumption to make. In no way did the parent suggest he supported it, just an example that the average person cares mostly about things that directly affect their lives regardless of the bigger causes at play.
- Reason077 4y ago
  > "Renewables: The solution exists already but no gov't (in particular the UK) is implementing it" The UK govt has done better than most on renewables in the past decade. Wind energy in particular. In 2020, wind power supplied 24.8% of all UK electricity, and this will continue to increase as major new wind farms - some of the largest in the world - come online in the coming years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_Kingd... The UK grid should begin to have periods of 100% fossil-free generation by 2025: https://www.nationalgrideso.com/news/great-britain-track-periods-zero-carbon-electricity-2025 https://www.nationalgrideso.com/news/great-britain-track-per...
throwaway22032 4y ago
We should probably ban loads of our low paid workers from entering the country, print a load of money and give it to people, tell the remaining workers to stay at home, change all of our working practices so that they don't match our infrastructure, and unilaterally sever trade with partners that sell us energy. What could possibly go wrong?
- yrgulation 4y ago
  "ban loads of our low paid workers" wait until you learn how much lower people are getting paid now that they depend on a work visa. hint: a lot less than europeans coming in pre-brexit.
  - ak_111 4y ago
    You need to factor in the cost of training them and their quality of service. For example European drivers usually have better English skills or have worked in similar coffee shops before, used to driving in Europe, familiar with cleaning and construction regulations, ...
    - blitzar 4y ago
      "Of course foreigners steal your job, but maybe, if someone without contacts, money, or speaking the language steals your job, you're shit." ~ Louis C. K. But sadly yes, Europeans tend to have better English than the English.
      - Dma54rhs 4y ago
        Wealthier class makes in always incredibly difficult for foreigners to take the jobs. Through paperwork, qualifications and red tape. You can see how angry they get here when the topic of visas for Indian tech workers come up. Suddenly everyone stays they are cheating, bringing wages down etc.
      - yrgulation 4y ago
        There are no more europeans coming in. Ye know, low wage and visa restrictions don't work when it comes to people moving in from high income economies.
spaceman_2020 4y ago
Inflation aside, does anyone think that they’ve really screwed with society with the lockdowns, the money printing, the vaccine mandates, and the work from home mandates? Everything feels very broken. Nobody wants to work. Even people who have been asked to come to the office are screwing off at least 1-2 days of the week and no one is able to do a thing. A massive group of people are essentially walking around with zero faith in their government. If they’re not hostile, they’re apathetic. Money is still completely wonky. All older economic indicators have stopped meaning anything because money has stopped meaning all that much. Healthcare feels even more broken than before. You’ve got more deaths than ever and chronic sufferers are the worst hit. I feel very pessimistic when I look at the world right now. Everything feels very chaotic and I don’t see a way out of the disorder.
- throwaway22032 4y ago
  Yes, this matches how I feel. The world was just very different pre-2020. It's all just gone phone call nonsense. Everyone is slacking off, productivity is through the floor, endless queues for everything, shortages, public transport use way down, etc. I haven't even had a proper full time job since then because as far as I can tell literally 0 work from office jobs exist any more. They just went extinct. The idea of even using an indicator like inflation to capture this is weird because there's been a qualitiative, not quantitative, change in what life is. It's not just "before but a different % of things".
  - phantomathkg 4y ago
    Explain why you think people is slacking, please?
    - spaceman_2020 4y ago
      I can’t say why. But work seems to have no “gravity”. Like in my brother’s government job, coming into office was a given. You could have serious career repercussions if you were slacking off. Then the lockdown happened and work moved online. Everyone was slacking off, including the managers. Now they’ve got in-office mandates again but some of the workers just don’t come in when they don’t fee like it and just log in from home. And no one seems to care or even mind. Work has started feeling optional, not essential.
O__________O 4y ago
For selection of non-paywall sources, click Google News search below: https://www.google.com/search?q=UK+inflation+to+hit+18.6%25+next+year&tbm=nws https://www.google.com/search?q=UK+inflation+to+hit+18.6%25+...
phantomathkg 4y ago
http://archive.today/t0oH2 http://archive.today/t0oH2
rdevsrex 4y ago
As many pundits have noted, the UK needs to negotiate good trade deals before its bargaining positions weakens further. Looking at the forecast, it might already be too late for that.
linuxftw 4y ago
Inflation isn't causing this. Inflation is devaluing of the currency. What's causing this is increased acquisition costs due to public policy. 6K seems reasonable for a family's annual energy bill. Frankly, it seems on the lower end for such a climate. What's really absurd in the UK is property prices. You'd be able to afford all the energy you desire if you weren't paying 10x what it should cost for housing.
- TomNomNom 4y ago
  I strongly disagree that nearly 20% of the median household income (£31,400 [0]) is reasonable for a family's annual energy bill. Median income for the poorest 20% is £14,600 - the chances they could afford £6k a year on energy are slim. Are you really suggesting that housing costs should average around £1400 per year (about one tenth the average annual rent [1]), but energy costs more than 4 times that amount are reasonable? [0] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householddisposableincomeandinequality/financialyearending2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personal... [1] https://homelet.co.uk/homelet-rental-index https://homelet.co.uk/homelet-rental-index
  - linuxftw 4y ago
    > Are you really suggesting that housing costs should average around £1400 per year Relative to wages in the UK, absolutely. The working class is getting absolutely fleeced over there. > I strongly disagree that nearly 20% of the median household income Same thing here, there's two sides to every equation. The UK has to import almost all of it's energy, importing is expensive. It seems to me, global energy demands are outstripping supply, and energy is going to become a permanently larger portion of everyone's budget. The way of life we've enjoyed the last 70+ years in the western world, that life is quickly changing.
- arcturus17 4y ago
  On exactly what assumptions and calculations could you come to the conclusion that 6k GBP / year is reasonable energy spend for an average household in the UK?
simonswords82 4y ago
I know it might seem obvious to some that the bill is annual but I wish BBC/FT et al would be clear that this is an annual figure
- blitzar 4y ago
  Its a catch 22 - people are too stupid to understand £0.50 per kWh up from £0.28 per kWh will be the new price cap so they do the really stupid average annual bill. However, it turns out people see the headline say £3,000 or whatever, and believe that is what their bill will actually be, irrespecitve of their usage.
HunchedOver 4y ago
The young will be expected pick up the tab for the old, despite owning none of the assets. It would not be a surprise if there are policies announced to further tax the young to give 'Granny' more free money off her bills (the existing winter fuel allowance is not means tested), and further free transport round major cities (over 60s travel London free). Then there's the echoes of the lockdown nightmare, mass punishment of the young so the old could feel safer. The response to any complaints about this generational vampirism is always of course; "you'll be old one day". Inheritance is rare to appear, all too often you hear that Granny has given it all to the local cat sanctuary. Patience is running thin and apathy is higher than ever. If you're young, this country actively punishes and steals from you, then tells you to stop complaining. Finding hope in anyone under 60 is a tough task.
- beeboop 4y ago
  We already see indirect youth tax in the USA in the form of social security - millennials will never see the benefits from their life-long contributions that the current retired age group is seeing. As it is currently benefits will decline 22% in 2034, and even further by the time millennials hit 65+.
  - dogma1138 4y ago
    In the UK national insurance is 13.5% from the employee and 15.5% from the employer… And all you get is £170 a week pension if you are lucky. So the social security equivalent in the UK comes to about 28% of the salary of most UK workers. It does only kick in if you are paid more than £240 a week for the employee part and £170 for the employer part, and does taper off for the employee to 3.5% for income above £4300 a month but for all intents and purposes this hold true for most workers.
jwilk 4y ago
Archived copy without paywall: https://archive.today/t0oH2 https://archive.today/t0oH2

103 points by cirrus-clouds 4y ago

Summary of the FT article: - Investment bank Citigroup forecasts UK inflation will hit 18.6 per cent in January 2023 — the highest peak in almost half a century — because of soaring wholesale gas prices. - The bank predicted that the country’s retail energy price cap — which limits how much the average household pays for heating and electricity — would be raised to £4,567 in January and then £5,816 in April (approx $6880, €6850) compared with the current level of £1,971 a year. It added that the shifts would lead to inflation “entering the stratosphere”. - UK and European wholesale natural gas prices are already trading at close to 10 times normal levels and other forecasters have also raised their inflation predictions. - The energy regulator Ofgem will on Friday (26 Aug) announce the energy price cap for the period between October and January, which most analysts expect to rise to more than £3,500 for a household with average usage of energy — an increase of 75 per cent on current levels. Related article from Reuters: Europe's efforts to shield households from soaring energy costs https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europes-efforts-shield-households-soaring-energy-costs-2022-08-15/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europes-efforts-shie...

LatteLazy 4y ago

A Mix of Brexit, an aging population, massive underinvestment in basically everything, covid mishandling and huge debt means the UK is around year 0 of a lost decade. I will leave if I can.

cirrus-clouds 4y ago
On top of that, we have a zombie goverment with no solutions or urgency to tackle the cost-of-living crisis.
- LatteLazy 4y ago
  And our political system basically guarantees the same people will be in charge until Jan 2025?! 2015 me would never have believed how rapidly things could fall apart.
- deleted 4y ago
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parenthesis 4y ago
Don't worry! Move up here to Scotland. The SNP assures us that all our problems will be solved as soon as we are independent! (Edit: I probably shouldn't have made this comment. Let's just say I am not disagreeing with you.)
- ThePadawan 4y ago
  Thank you for still making it. I often make comments I feel I need to, and later succumb to the stupid social network reaction of "oh no 3 people downvoted it, surely that means 3 people hate me and no one agrees". Sometimes things need to be said regardless.
breckenedge 4y ago
Since this is also related to higher energy prices, do you think the invasion on Ukraine is also a contributing factor? Although if that were the case, we’d also see as high of inflation in other European countries?
- weberer 4y ago
  Yes, we're seeing inflation rates across the board above 10%, which is where the UK sits today. Estonia is the highest at 23%. https://www.statista.com/statistics/225698/monthly-inflation-rate-in-eu-countries/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/225698/monthly-inflation...
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  Moving to a European country with less industry and a moderate climate closer to the Med would blunt energy costs for someone (lower energy demand = less energy spend).
- rsynnott 4y ago
  That's definitely a contributor, but, as you say, it's generally worse in the UK than in other large European countries. This whole thing is a bit of a perfect storm for the UK.
  - automatic6131 4y ago
    Have you heard of the plight of an even larger European country? Hint: it rhymes with Burmany. It's bad in the UK, to imagine it's the worst in the UK vs Europe is to show your ignorance.
    - rsynnott 4y ago
      Germany's warning that inflation may hit or slightly exceed 10% by end of year, which, to be clear, is very bad, but is less bad than 18.6%.
- Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
  CF Industries shut down their two nitrogen fertilizer plants in the U.K. back in September 2021 due to high natural gas prices.
deleted 4y ago
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twelfthnight 4y ago
Honest question: Where would you go?
- Aromasin 4y ago
  I've recently started the move over to the Netherlands. The things that were keeping me in the UK (the last vestiges of our socialist governmental policies) have been torn to shreds by the current Tory government. I've also lost any hope that the British public will try to fight for it back. It feels like people are accepting a slip back into feudalism with open arms.
- azangru 4y ago
  Peter Zeihan thinks that the US is in the best position to weather the coming years :-)
  - archagon 4y ago
    The US is at great risk of becoming an authoritarian, single-party dystopia in the coming years. (Yes, I mean the Republicans.)
- LatteLazy 4y ago
  Most places. I wouldn't work in the Middle East for moral reasons. I'd go to the US or Canada happily. I'd go to the EU. Singapore has a company office and Australia is great from what I saw on holiday. I have a chat scheduled with my boss in Sept, I might start sounding out a transfer.
throwaway6734 4y ago
I understand where you're coming from, but try not to get too pessimistic. The UK has made i through much worse and come out the other end.
- data_maan 4y ago
  Past success is not a good predictor. Probably the Roman senators at the end of the Roman Empire also thought "oh well, we've been dragging our feet lately, but somehow things will work out". I would say the most likely outcome is a further diminishing of the UKs international importance, together with some risk of Scotland breaking apart.
  - throwaway6734 4y ago
    None of the situations we face today are remotely close to the difficulty to those faced by the Romans at the end of the western empire
Latty 4y ago
I recently went to a small event for a friend, and among the 30-40 young professionals there, this was the resounding mood: the country is fucked and only getting worse, is there a way out? Just generally no one expects things to get better. Standard of living is going down the drain, building stability by buying a house comes with absurd cost. I think we are heading for a tipping point. Public services are probably already past a point where staff quitting is piling more work on those left, resulting in more people quitting. I suspect there will be a terminal snowball which guts the NHS at least and leaves it unable to function (by design of the Tories, of course). I suspect the brain drain will be similar. Young people don't want to live in some tax haven, they want a country that functions. Brexit has made it harder, but people will find a way eventually. People were talking Canada, the Netherlands, etc... (Notably for here, very much not the US which is seen as having all of the same problems the UK has).
satysin 4y ago
I moved from the UK to [redacted]. While I could not predict the pandemic nor the war in Ukraine I did expect things to get worse in the UK post-Brexit which is why when the UK voted to leave back in 2016 my wife and I started planning to move. It took a couple of years to get things all sorted and we moved in August 2018. We are actually back in the UK this week visiting family who asked if we miss living here and my wife and I just looked at each other and said "nope!" in unison. It is hard to explain it in a short post here but the UK just doesn't feel "like home" to me anymore. I am not saying [redacted] is perfect. But our quality of life is much higher in [redacted] than it was in the UK and we are both very happy we followed through and moved.

NickRandom 4y ago

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/22/citi-projects-uk-inflation-to-breach-18percent-in-january-as-energy-prices-skyrocket.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/22/citi-projects-uk-inflation-t... (alternate link)

jdkee 4y ago

“ It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grams a week. And only yesterday […] it had been announced that the ration was to be reduced to twenty grams a week. Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours? Yes, they swallowed it. [...] The eyeless crature at the other table swallowed it fanatically. passionately, with a furious desire to track down, denounce, and vaporize anyone who should suggest that last week the ration had been thirty grams. Syme, too-in some more double complex way, involving doublethink-Syme, swallow it. Was he, then, alone in the possession of a memory?” George Orwell, 1984.

tankenmate 4y ago
Hope is in such short supply in large parts of the UK that false hope, demonstrably false hope, and even doublespeak-esque cynically lying false hope can take hold. And so a chunk of the masses vacillate between "I believe virtually everything I read, and I think that is what makes me more of a selective human than someone who doesn't believe anything."[0] and "Game over man, Game Over."[1] [0] This is Spinal Tap [1] Aliens

CommanderData 4y ago

We have a corrupt government and media that itch each others back. There's still a complete lack of urgency. A potential new prime minister trying to defend profits of energy companies recently on TV just shows you the Modus operandi of the political class. It might push people to riots in the streets.

mellosouls 4y ago
Didn't happen with the bankers 10 years ago, I'm not sure that normal people have the inclination or fight.
- blowski 4y ago
  Some would say they rioted in the ballot box, via the Brexit referendum.
- yourusername 4y ago
  While a lot of people lost money during the banking crisis a lot of people were unaffected. The current inflation crisis means the bottom quartile will probably start to go hungry and be unable to afford to heat their homes. It's not like those people were saving 20-30% of their income 2 years ago and they're now spending 20% of their income on heating and their groceries got 20% more expensive and fuel (for driving) increased by 50-100%.
- sudden_dystopia 4y ago
  True but that was “just” a bad recession, but we never actually recovered from it. Now we are the brink of global war, reeling from Covid supply chain issues, and stagflation all on top of a world economy that has been propped up by central banks for the past decade while simultaneously exploding the money supply and essentially making internet rates zero. This is the world on modern monetary theory. Not even once.
- mattmanser 4y ago
  Most UK cities had big occupy protests, we had one in my city in the UK for quite a while.

rvieira 4y ago

I live in the north of England where temperature varies from 38F in Jan to 57F in August. It's pretty chilly for me, so I tend to spend a considerable amount of gas throughout the year. I'm renting a house, so deep work like insulation gets complicated. My point is that even with a comfortable salary, I will feel ~£600/month in energy. I can only fear for people that earn much less than me.

Symbiote 4y ago
Why have you converted the temperatures to Fahrenheit? It hasn't been used in BBC weather forecasts in Britain since the 1960s.
- rvieira 4y ago
  People living in the UK already know the north is chilly, no need to quantify it. I have the impression that the overwhelming majority of HN is from the US, and "chilly" can mean different things depending where you're from.
  - Hnrobert42 4y ago
    As an American on holiday in the UK, I appreciate the Fahrenheit. My impression of the readership is that it depends on the time of day. When I was in Vietnam, I would wake up to US centric posts full of comments. When I wake up early on the East Coast of the US (~6:30 am) I see more comments from Europe/UK. By mid afternoon, most of the posters seem to be from the US or at least the Americas. I base this on about 5 years of daily HN reading. I infer the posters’ locations from spelling, grammar, but most often their own admission. Nonetheless, this is just anecdata.
- ghostwriter 4y ago
  it reminds me of this BBC video from 70s regarding the public opinion on the metric system https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykthWUdkhu0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykthWUdkhu0
- missedthecue 4y ago

TrackerFF 4y ago

Hopefully the current energy crisis (in Europe) will further accelerate development in renewable energy. Seems much of Europe is still chained to LNG, and that demand is even wreaking havoc in countries which have been previously quite self-sustained, or really don't use LNG much themselves - with Norway being a good example.

pydry 4y ago
Unfortunately we'd need another 5 years to really make a difference whereas the gas crisis is going to hit us in months.
- DawnQFunk2 4y ago
  - yourusername 4y ago
    It's a bit more real in Europe. Here in the Netherlands for many people their gas bill went up hundreds of Euro's a month. My electricity and gas rates are 2.5x what they were in 2020. The average family spending a additional 10% of their income of heating isn't what i would call "nothing"
  - pydry 4y ago
    Based upon the price of gas jumps 150% in summer time when Russia coughs. This isnt a crisis. The taps arent even off and it's summer. Russia turning off the taps in winter would be a crisis.
- Someone1234 4y ago
  True. But 5-years ago this national security reliance on foreign gas prices was well known, and little was done in the intervening time. The worry is that when the current crisis subsides that inaction will yet again fall back into favor. The solutions are, in part: - National gas storage reserve (to buffet price/supply spikes somewhat). - Expansion of green energy. - Programs to reduce usage (e.g. home and business improvements). Luckily for the UK extremely efficient heat pump based heating/cooling solutions that offer greater than 100% efficiency exist[0]. It is just a matter of the political will to covert away from gas to electricity and then retrofitting homes. [0] https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/heat-pump-systems https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/heat-pump-systems

chrisstu 4y ago

A looming catastrophe in the UK and the government is doing nothing. I've seen some crazy stuff here over the last 12 years but this is next level.

data_maan 4y ago
No, it is definitely doing something: Arresting people that protest for housing insulation.
- ehvatum 4y ago
  They’re arrested for being street-blocking twats, to the cheers of everyone with somewhere to be. Pooling donations to install insulation would have been fine. But no. No interest in that.
weberer 4y ago
What should they do?
azangru 4y ago
> and the government is doing nothing. What do you think the government should do?
- Latty 4y ago
  Tax those who can afford it to help those that can't. At some point if the rich continue to demand sacrifice of the poor to prop up their gathering of wealth, it'll be guillotines in the streets. Historically Britain's upper class has been sensible at offering compromise to avoid extreme change, but it appears the current crop think their control of the media is enough to keep the population placid while they suffer. So far, they appear to have been right. Who knows how long that'll continue as things get significantly harder for the average person.
  - mathverse 4y ago
    The problem with the approach of "tax this and tax that" is that it often ends up hurting the lower and middle classes the most. I am very skeptical about any new taxes aiming for wealth distribution that are not very explicit about who should pay that tax.

_448 4y ago

With two candidates for the next UK PM having polar opposite views on how to fix the economy, who do you think is more correct in their proposal: Sunak or Truss?

kshacker 4y ago
Care to explain the opposite views? They both come from the same party so presumably have lot in common as opposed to Labor and LibDems.
- philipwhiuk 4y ago
  Truss thinks trickle down economics of cutting taxing to business will generate growth and stimulate prospects for poor people. Sunak thinks taxing businesses and the well off so that we can fund support to the less well off is the right approach. Labour and Lib Dems are further left in that they want to cut off any growth in electricity prices and maybe nationalise electricity firms.
  - kshacker 4y ago
    Yeah did not expect any different from Labor and Lib Dems, was curious about the 2 candidates. Interesting to see Sunak taking a non "modern conservative" approach, quite different from Grover Norquist school of thought. Wonder if any R candidate from the American side would even be able to take such a stance.
Latty 4y ago
Assuming one has to be "more correct" is a fool's errand. You are talking about the dregs of an already corrupt and ideologically (rather than evidence) driven party that was further culled to only those who were willing to support the current inept and corrupt PM. The Tories are so out of ideas and people with any talent or charisma, they think these two are the best they have to offer. Both have literally nothing to address this except doubling down on fantasy economics that we can see hasn't worked up to this point.
simonswords82 4y ago

rob_c 4y ago

philipwhiuk 4y ago
Right because the virus caused Russia to invade more of Ukraine?
- rob_c 4y ago
  Out of the blue yes, for no reason yes, no change that would force their hand yes, nothing impacting the global economy yes ...
jbd28 4y ago
- rob_c 4y ago
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
spaceman_2020 4y ago
Meanwhile: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/18/silent-crisis-soaring-excess-deaths-gripping-britain-tip-iceberg/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/18/silent-crisis-so...
- rob_c 4y ago
  Yes the 5% of mostly under 50s in the UK who refused any jab are all secretly dying... Oh wait, im still here... Edit: there will be much more to come when gran can't afford to heat herself at winter. The marginal "200k we think we maybe saved" will be shadowed by the damage of the next 2-5 years I fear. I would love to be wrong. Edit2: apologies I was trying to be whitty, unlike those in charge of policy.

jongjong 4y ago

I've been whining about how unjust and non-meritocratic the current economy has been for the last 5 years and look at that... These insane inflation numbers are proving me right. I'm quite sure the inflation will continue too. My detractors were in fact gaslighting me the whole time, as I suspected. The people at the top today are incompetent and lack principles. No better than the corrupt dictators of uncivilized nations. I almost get satisfaction seeing them driving that sinking ship all the way to the seafloor. That's the most meritocratic thing I've seen in a decade.

evandijk70 4y ago
Why are these numbers proving you right? Those people that made an decision to transition to a sustainable lifestyle by: - Isolate their house and/or live in a small, well isolated apartment - Buy solar panels and a heatpump. - Save gas by wearing an extra sweater and setting the thermostat a bit lower. are affected far less by this massive inflation. Of course, for the 37% in the UK that do not own a house (probably because they cannot afford it) and/or convince their landlord to isolate their property, it is unjust. Since more people own their house than rent it seems that this particular inflation wave makes the economy more just rather than less just, given that the biggest polluters are hit the the hardest.
- M2Ys4U 4y ago
  Even for the people that own their own home there's also the capital required to install insulation, solar panels or a heat pump. How many of those home owners do you think have tens of thousands of pounds just laying around that they can spend on those upgrades? (and that's after taking in to consideration the grants available)
  - evandijk70 4y ago
    If you look at the amount of cars driving around in the UK (similarly priced as all the upgrades combined), probably most homeowners. Also, if someone does not have sufficient capital, there are subsidised lease options for all upgrades.

data_maan 4y ago

Three things: 1 Renewables: The solution exists already but no gov't (in particular the UK) is implementing it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/100%25_renewable_energy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/100%25_renewable_energy 2 The UK gov't rather is arresting people demonstrating for housing insulation. This is probably the dumbest thing a gov't can do, since insulation is a "bipartisan" issue and everybody would profit from it. 3 On top of this the UK is on the verge of picking a fight with the EU and risking a trade war by its illegal and unilateral changes to the Brexit agreement. NI political issues aside, no sane gov't would do that at this point in time.

automatic6131 4y ago
If you glue yourself to a road, you could be supporting an end to pedophilia, but I'll still cheer the coppers arresting you so I can go where I want.
- data_maan 4y ago
  Somehow this sounds to me like you would rather support pedophilia than see your precious right to "go where you want" restricted. Standard hedonism of the typical climate change deniers here. Go on, people, nothing to see ...
  - alt227 4y ago
    A common short sited assumption to make. In no way did the parent suggest he supported it, just an example that the average person cares mostly about things that directly affect their lives regardless of the bigger causes at play.
Reason077 4y ago
> "Renewables: The solution exists already but no gov't (in particular the UK) is implementing it" The UK govt has done better than most on renewables in the past decade. Wind energy in particular. In 2020, wind power supplied 24.8% of all UK electricity, and this will continue to increase as major new wind farms - some of the largest in the world - come online in the coming years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_Kingd... The UK grid should begin to have periods of 100% fossil-free generation by 2025: https://www.nationalgrideso.com/news/great-britain-track-periods-zero-carbon-electricity-2025 https://www.nationalgrideso.com/news/great-britain-track-per...

throwaway22032 4y ago

We should probably ban loads of our low paid workers from entering the country, print a load of money and give it to people, tell the remaining workers to stay at home, change all of our working practices so that they don't match our infrastructure, and unilaterally sever trade with partners that sell us energy. What could possibly go wrong?

yrgulation 4y ago
"ban loads of our low paid workers" wait until you learn how much lower people are getting paid now that they depend on a work visa. hint: a lot less than europeans coming in pre-brexit.
- ak_111 4y ago
  You need to factor in the cost of training them and their quality of service. For example European drivers usually have better English skills or have worked in similar coffee shops before, used to driving in Europe, familiar with cleaning and construction regulations, ...
  - blitzar 4y ago
    "Of course foreigners steal your job, but maybe, if someone without contacts, money, or speaking the language steals your job, you're shit." ~ Louis C. K. But sadly yes, Europeans tend to have better English than the English.
    - Dma54rhs 4y ago
      Wealthier class makes in always incredibly difficult for foreigners to take the jobs. Through paperwork, qualifications and red tape. You can see how angry they get here when the topic of visas for Indian tech workers come up. Suddenly everyone stays they are cheating, bringing wages down etc.
    - yrgulation 4y ago
      There are no more europeans coming in. Ye know, low wage and visa restrictions don't work when it comes to people moving in from high income economies.

spaceman_2020 4y ago

Inflation aside, does anyone think that they’ve really screwed with society with the lockdowns, the money printing, the vaccine mandates, and the work from home mandates? Everything feels very broken. Nobody wants to work. Even people who have been asked to come to the office are screwing off at least 1-2 days of the week and no one is able to do a thing. A massive group of people are essentially walking around with zero faith in their government. If they’re not hostile, they’re apathetic. Money is still completely wonky. All older economic indicators have stopped meaning anything because money has stopped meaning all that much. Healthcare feels even more broken than before. You’ve got more deaths than ever and chronic sufferers are the worst hit. I feel very pessimistic when I look at the world right now. Everything feels very chaotic and I don’t see a way out of the disorder.

throwaway22032 4y ago
Yes, this matches how I feel. The world was just very different pre-2020. It's all just gone phone call nonsense. Everyone is slacking off, productivity is through the floor, endless queues for everything, shortages, public transport use way down, etc. I haven't even had a proper full time job since then because as far as I can tell literally 0 work from office jobs exist any more. They just went extinct. The idea of even using an indicator like inflation to capture this is weird because there's been a qualitiative, not quantitative, change in what life is. It's not just "before but a different % of things".
- phantomathkg 4y ago
  Explain why you think people is slacking, please?
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago
    I can’t say why. But work seems to have no “gravity”. Like in my brother’s government job, coming into office was a given. You could have serious career repercussions if you were slacking off. Then the lockdown happened and work moved online. Everyone was slacking off, including the managers. Now they’ve got in-office mandates again but some of the workers just don’t come in when they don’t fee like it and just log in from home. And no one seems to care or even mind. Work has started feeling optional, not essential.

O__________O 4y ago

For selection of non-paywall sources, click Google News search below: https://www.google.com/search?q=UK+inflation+to+hit+18.6%25+next+year&tbm=nws https://www.google.com/search?q=UK+inflation+to+hit+18.6%25+...

phantomathkg 4y ago

http://archive.today/t0oH2 http://archive.today/t0oH2

rdevsrex 4y ago

As many pundits have noted, the UK needs to negotiate good trade deals before its bargaining positions weakens further. Looking at the forecast, it might already be too late for that.

linuxftw 4y ago

Inflation isn't causing this. Inflation is devaluing of the currency. What's causing this is increased acquisition costs due to public policy. 6K seems reasonable for a family's annual energy bill. Frankly, it seems on the lower end for such a climate. What's really absurd in the UK is property prices. You'd be able to afford all the energy you desire if you weren't paying 10x what it should cost for housing.

TomNomNom 4y ago
I strongly disagree that nearly 20% of the median household income (£31,400 [0]) is reasonable for a family's annual energy bill. Median income for the poorest 20% is £14,600 - the chances they could afford £6k a year on energy are slim. Are you really suggesting that housing costs should average around £1400 per year (about one tenth the average annual rent [1]), but energy costs more than 4 times that amount are reasonable? [0] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householddisposableincomeandinequality/financialyearending2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personal... [1] https://homelet.co.uk/homelet-rental-index https://homelet.co.uk/homelet-rental-index
- linuxftw 4y ago
  > Are you really suggesting that housing costs should average around £1400 per year Relative to wages in the UK, absolutely. The working class is getting absolutely fleeced over there. > I strongly disagree that nearly 20% of the median household income Same thing here, there's two sides to every equation. The UK has to import almost all of it's energy, importing is expensive. It seems to me, global energy demands are outstripping supply, and energy is going to become a permanently larger portion of everyone's budget. The way of life we've enjoyed the last 70+ years in the western world, that life is quickly changing.
arcturus17 4y ago
On exactly what assumptions and calculations could you come to the conclusion that 6k GBP / year is reasonable energy spend for an average household in the UK?

simonswords82 4y ago

I know it might seem obvious to some that the bill is annual but I wish BBC/FT et al would be clear that this is an annual figure

blitzar 4y ago
Its a catch 22 - people are too stupid to understand £0.50 per kWh up from £0.28 per kWh will be the new price cap so they do the really stupid average annual bill. However, it turns out people see the headline say £3,000 or whatever, and believe that is what their bill will actually be, irrespecitve of their usage.

HunchedOver 4y ago

The young will be expected pick up the tab for the old, despite owning none of the assets. It would not be a surprise if there are policies announced to further tax the young to give 'Granny' more free money off her bills (the existing winter fuel allowance is not means tested), and further free transport round major cities (over 60s travel London free). Then there's the echoes of the lockdown nightmare, mass punishment of the young so the old could feel safer. The response to any complaints about this generational vampirism is always of course; "you'll be old one day". Inheritance is rare to appear, all too often you hear that Granny has given it all to the local cat sanctuary. Patience is running thin and apathy is higher than ever. If you're young, this country actively punishes and steals from you, then tells you to stop complaining. Finding hope in anyone under 60 is a tough task.

beeboop 4y ago
We already see indirect youth tax in the USA in the form of social security - millennials will never see the benefits from their life-long contributions that the current retired age group is seeing. As it is currently benefits will decline 22% in 2034, and even further by the time millennials hit 65+.
- dogma1138 4y ago
  In the UK national insurance is 13.5% from the employee and 15.5% from the employer… And all you get is £170 a week pension if you are lucky. So the social security equivalent in the UK comes to about 28% of the salary of most UK workers. It does only kick in if you are paid more than £240 a week for the employee part and £170 for the employer part, and does taper off for the employee to 3.5% for income above £4300 a month but for all intents and purposes this hold true for most workers.

jwilk 4y ago

Archived copy without paywall: https://archive.today/t0oH2 https://archive.today/t0oH2