6 ms·
Tesla Q3 2021 Vehicle Production and Deliveries
- hn_throwaway_99 5y agoWow, didn't realize there was such a discrepancy between Model 3/Y volume and Model S/X volume. I expected it to be substantial but not a 25x difference.
- judge2020 5y agoBefore the S/X refresh which started around December 24 2020[0], they had ~16k S/X in q3 and q4 2020[1]. Retooling for the refresh was supposedly going to last only a month, but it turned into them only producing Model S cars starting in June and X orders still have no delivery date[2]. 0: https://insideevs.com/news/460036/tesla-shut-down-model-s-x-production/ https://insideevs.com/news/460036/tesla-shut-down-model-s-x-... 1: https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/1LRLZK_2020_Q4_Quarterly_Update_Deck_-_Searchable_LVA2GL.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22TSLA-Q4-2020-Update.pdf%22#page=7 https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/1LRLZK_2020_Q4_Quarterly_... 2: https://twitter.com/DirtyTesla/status/1443543167098359813 https://twitter.com/DirtyTesla/status/1443543167098359813
- hesdeadjim 5y agoI mean, a Model X with some options hits $110k quick. A fully kitted long range Y is about $65k. That latter number is a lot still, but way, way, way closer in the range of what an above average income earner can afford. There is also the absurdity of spending $100k+ on an asset that depreciates so heavily. My spouse and I make enough money to afford this car without much thought, but there isn’t a chance in hell I’d light that much money on fire.
- tdhz77 5y agoYou could nearly double your range by buying two model Y’s it would give you around 600 miles — a much better price, and theoretically you could tow charge one and charge it, so it’s not out of the realm of possible. To be fairrrr, only people that have range anxiety are those that listen to the oil and gas industry.
- yoz-y 5y agoAt that point maybe somebody could start selling a ginormous battery pack on wheels. Buying a second car just to increase range seems ridiculous.
- tdhz77 5y agoMore ridiculous than buying 1 car for double the price? I’m confused.
- gpm 5y ago> and theoretically you could tow charge one and charge it Charge it... from where? There isn't a free energy source here...
- tdhz77 5y agoThe fact that you can charge an electric vehicle by towing it in gear is common knowledge among those with knowledge of how EVs work - you're basically just relying on regen to put juice back into the battery, using the motor as a generator.
- gpm 5y agoYou can, but it's not an infinite energy machine, the increased resistance to moving forwards is going to suck more energy out of the first vehicles battery than it is going to put into the second, your total range will be strictly less than if you didn't do that.
- purple_ferret 5y agoThey pulled the Model S Plaid Plus, so I'm sure some cancelled orders
- sidcool 5y agoThis is a blowout quarter. They are well on their way to sell maximum cars this year in their history.
- seoaeu 5y agoDoesn't their stock valuation count on basically every year being better than the last for a long time to come?
- toomuchtodo 5y agoYes, and as long as enough investors believe in that thesis, it'll stay where its at. What's Uber's stock price and valuation after burning $30 billion dollars and still not turning a profit? (Uber picked in particular because I'm familiar with their financials)
- sidcool 5y agoHasn't Tesla now been consistently posting profits?
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- SuoDuanDao 5y agoYes, but if their profits stayed consistent at current rates the stock price would be quite high compared to other companies. It's price-to-earnings ratio is 408, meaning it would take 408 years for it to buy all its outstanding stock just from earnings. By contrast Ford's is 16 and Alphabet's (Google's) is 29. The 408 ratio is justified by the assumption that earnings will be a lot higher in coming decades.
- randmeerkat 5y agoSince you’re familiar with Uber’s financials, I have a question. Do you think they’ll be able to survive as a company once interest rates begin rising?
- smoldesu 5y agoThe other day I heard someone say that Rivian intends to deliver 40,000 vehicles next year, total. Musk runs his mouth on a lot of stuff, but it's pretty hard to knock his manufacturing when he's got a 20x lead on the competition. Hell, I was blown away by how quickly Starlink went from concept to reality, but figures like these really help put the scale into perspective. It's like capitalism down to a science, for better and worse.
- sschueller 5y agoHow many cybertrucks can they deliver next year?
- NikolaNovak 5y agoNot to disagree,but for different perspective 1. How long has Tesla been manufacturing vs Rivian 2. How does Tesla compare to Toyota I feel it's all apples and oranges both ways. They're all in different manufacturing maturity place
- judge2020 5y ago> They're all in different manufacturing maturity place That's true, but the electric car race began with the Model 3 and is going to continue to outpace Rivian 50x next year if the volume expectation are correct [on both sides]. Rivian coming out with these cars is unlikely to capture much of the market anyways, given they're both over $65k. It's like Rivian's 10 years behind Tesla in maturity (besides their range figures), and their only saving grace might be the Amazon electric delivery vehicle contract.
- terafo 5y agoFor reference: they did 139k in Q3 2020 and 184k in Q1 2021. That's pretty nice growth, but still much less than any major car company.
- p49k 5y agoAverage price per vehicle is much higher than other brands. In terms of revenue in dollars, It seems they are on track to surpass Nissan next year, no?
- nuclearnice1 5y agoNissan is forecasting 9.75 trillion yen (88 billion usd) in net revenue for 2021. Tesla had automotive revenues of 19 billion usd in the first two quarters of 2021.
- p49k 5y agoYou're cherry-picking data to make Tesla's numbers and potential look worse than they actually are. The first two quarters are much slower for car sales; for example in 2020, Tesla shipped 178k units in Q1+Q2 and 319k units in Q3+Q4. Tesla had sales of 31.5B in 2020, and have 73% growth between Q3 2020 and 2021, which indicates they could hit 50B in 2021, and could hit close to 90B in 2022 if they continue the same YoY growth. Nissan is stagnant. It's reasonable to assume that Tesla is on track to surpass Nissan next year (2022).
- nuclearnice1 5y ago> You're cherry-picking data to make Tesla's numbers and potential look worse than they actually are. This accusation is false.
- maxharris 5y agoThese numbers do not include Giga Texas or Giga Berlin, both of which are nearing completion. Each of these factories are estimated to ramp to 500k vehicles/year in the first phase (going far higher in the years to follow). Giga Texas alone has around 8 million square feet of factory space, whereas GM has around 33.9 million square feet factory space, dedicated purely to ICE vehicle production, in its 10 US factories. I expect that around 900k Teslas will be produced and sold in 2021. The new factories easily bring that up to something around 1.8m-2m in 2022. At present, Toyota produces something on the order of 10m gasoline vehicles per year, and roughly zero EVs.
- thesis 5y agoIsn’t this even more impressive with the current chip shortage affecting every other car manufacturer on the planet?
- therouwboat 5y agoOther manufacturers also make a lot more cars.
- judge2020 5y agoThe chip shortage is easily explained by this[0]. Tesla didn't pull shenanigans like other auto manufacturers, so they aren't nearly as affected. 0: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26931498 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26931498
- terafo 5y agoAnd they are more vertically integrated on semiconductor side than other auto manufacturers.
- oxplot 5y agoNot sure where I read this but Tesla seems to rely a lot more on software than specialized chips so they can swap them out for another one that's available, with lot less effort than other manufacturers.
- c54 5y agoDoes anyone know of any analysis of Tesla’s quality control? This[0] thread on twitter was pretty interesting but I’d love something more encompassing [0] https://twitter.com/snazzyq/status/1434936396096028674?s=21 https://twitter.com/snazzyq/status/1434936396096028674?s=21
- 6gvONxR4sf7o 5y agoFor reference (because if you’re like me you have no scale for this), this is about 10% of what Toyota does, which is way closer than I’d expected.