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It's really a shame what has happened to Blue Origin. They've gone from a promising space startup to yet another purveyor of perpetual vaporware. Where is the
by FreakyT 5y ago
It's really a shame what has happened to Blue Origin. They've gone from a promising space startup to yet another purveyor of perpetual vaporware.
Where is the BE-4 engine? Delayed, again and again. New Glenn, the rocket that could actually go into orbit? Same. So far their only functioning hardware (New Shephard) is, in effect, a glorified amusement park ride.
Considering that SpaceX has actually made it to orbit multiple times, any rational actor would clearly choose SpaceX over BO.
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 5y agoSlow and steady wins the race. I'm not counting them out, Bezos is so immensely wealthy that if he wants Blue Origin to succeed then it will succeed.
- whatshisface 5y agoSlow and steady wins the race against fast and transient, not, as SpaceX has been, fast and persistent.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- adventured 5y ago> Slow and steady wins the race. Not if it's a 100m or 200m sprint. Try that and you'll finish dead last. If SpaceX had gone with slow and steady, it would have merely given their monopolistic competition - competition particularly well connected in DC - that much more time to try to wipe them out using their preferred approach of avoiding competition via government protection. Blue Origin may yet make something of itself via slow and steady pacing (which Bezos can afford), however it's not winning the race.
- the_third_wave 5y agoThat is like saying that the meek shall inherit the earth - or what is left of it when the bold have taken all they wanted. Slow and steady is just that, slow. There is a place for it, e.g. when refining an established practice like mining or internal combustion engines. Commercial space exploration is a place where rapid advances can be made by visionary explorers, only once you can buy an off-the-shelf space minivan for the whole family the time has come for 'slow and steady'.
- zhdc1 5y agoThe actual saying is closer to "the disciplined shall inherit the earth".
- labster 5y agoCan you give a citation on that? I’ve seen rather, well, creative interpretations of Bible verses online before, and I’m wondering if the text actually supports this translation.
- zhdc1 5y agoBiblehub gives a good overview for alternative translations of πραεῖς in English. See https://biblehub.com/greek/4239.htm https://biblehub.com/greek/4239.htm From them "This difficult-to-translate root (pra-) means more than "meek." Biblical meekness is not weakness but rather refers to exercising God's strength under His control – i.e. demonstrating power without undue harshness." There's also a good discussion at https://hermeneutics.stackexchange.com/questions/2/what-does-meek-mean-in-matthew-55 https://hermeneutics.stackexchange.com/questions/2/what-does...
- the_third_wave 5y agoThe original saying is 'μακάριοι οἱ πραεῖς, ὅτι αὐτοὶ κληρονομήσουσιν τὴν γῆν' [1] which refers to 'οι πραείς' - 'the meek'. [1] taken from Novum Testamentum Graece, κατά ματθαίον 5,5 (pp.9/26X - 28th ed, 2012) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novum_Testamentum_Graece https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novum_Testamentum_Graece
- pmoriarty 5y agoIt's not like immense wealth hasn't been squandered before.
- bawolff 5y agoThe moral of the tortise and the hare fable is that the hare lost because he took breaks. He lost despite having a faster top speed not because of it.
- inglor_cz 5y agoThis is not really a race, as it does not have a well-defined endpoint. Reaching the orbit is just a starting step for some other activity and former champions may fall by the wayside as decades go by. Soviets were once in the lead very clearly, Roskosmos lost that edge a long time ago.
- chasd00 5y agoSlow and steady doesn’t work against persistently fast and right.
- paxys 5y agoEverything SpaceX is successfully launching today was similarly delayed during development. It's too early to write off Blue Origin, especially since Bezos just got involved in it full time.
- mattr47 5y agoBezos was never a scientist, engineer or dreamer. He is an entrepreneur, business savvy guy. Its about the dollar for him (which I'm not saying is a bad thing), versus for Elon it is a dream/passion to get to Mars.
- namelessoracle 5y agoThe kind of guy who saves The Expanse on a whim probably does have at least a hobbyist interest in space. Elon was probably more invested earlier and was paying more attention to what was going on is for sure though. Im not convinced Bezos personal attention is going to do much to help his space company though. Nothing about him seems like it would help other than his wealth. And he hasnt shown a willingness to throw a significant part of his fortune into his space venture. Nothing about this strikes me as anything more than what is a hobby that one of the richest persons in the world is passionate about
- WalterBright 5y agoIf that was true, Bezos would have sent someone else on the test of manned flight rather than risk his own ass.
- relativ575 5y agoHe's always been a big space nerd. "While at Princeton, Bezos attended O’Neill’s seminars and ran the campus chapter of “Students for the Exploration and Development of Space.” Through Blue Origin, which he has called his “most important work,” Bezos is developing detailed plans to realize O’Neill’s vision." - [0] [0] https://www.princeton.edu/news/2021/04/16/documentary-featuring-princeton-visionary-physicist-gerard-oneill-premieres https://www.princeton.edu/news/2021/04/16/documentary-featur...
- 5y ago
- elif 5y agoForget orbit, SpaceX has paid for it's ISS contract about 3x in savings over Soyuz. Congress would be dumb to pick a new horse now.
- meepmorp 5y ago> Congress would be dumb to pick a new horse now. You're not optimizing for the same outcomes as Congress. NASA is a jobs agency.
- Arrath 5y agoA 'jobs agency' that has produced a whole lot of technical advancements, maybe.
- voxic11 5y agoWhat advancements have its current flagship program (SLS) produced? Maybe they do produce some but congress clearly wants them to produce jobs not anything else.
- jvanderbot 5y agoYou know congress funds a lot more for space than SLS, right?
- voxic11 5y agobut sls is the program with the most funding currently right?
- wumpus 5y agoHave you noticed that most critics aren't complaining about all of NASA, but mainly about SLS/Orion? On reddit, what usually happens is that SLS defenders try to misrepresent attacks on SLS as an attack on all of NASA, parenthood, and apple pie. And so the world turns.
- jccooper 5y agoBlue Origin isn't vaporware. They have engines, they have rocket bodies, they have tooling, etc. But they are, apparently, firmly in development hell, with no public indication of trying to change that.
- squarefoot 5y agoThe point is that Blue Origin isn't going to have anything ready by 2023 which is the year the crewed Artemis 2 mission should get the go. They might not be vaporware, but they're still several years behind SpaceX.
- vanattab 5y agoWhat 2023? Is there even a lunar lander prototype built yet? Launching a manned mission to the moon next year does not seem realistic to me. Edit: lol forgot it was 2021 not 2022, still seems unreasonable to me though.
- nickik 5y agoThe definition of vapoware is things that are delayed continously after they should have been released. The BE-4 fits into that.
- completelylegit 5y agovaporware is a product that has been announced but never materializes.
- yellowapple 5y agoRight, like the BE-4 engine.
- voakbasda 5y agoA project is not vaporware until it gets canceled without delivering.
- yborg 5y agoIt's telling that Bezos has chosen to take this fight to Washington DC - his only real hope is to kneecap SpaceX politically. It's not that Blue Origin lacks engineering know-how, it's that they brought in a ULA executive to run things and so he's running the ULA playbook - maximize profits by delaying things indefinitely to keep that taxpayer money flowing. Blue Origin wants SpaceX to play by its rules and slow to a crawl so they can compete. Elon Musk, for all his faults, wants to accomplish something and is personally driving things to get that done and is unwilling to settle for vanity wins and big talk to impress fellow billionaires at Davos. Unless Jeff can convince Elon to focus on salad fights over how high is up I'd say this competition is long over.
- peterkos 5y agoReminds me of a quote from the WeWork documentary: "When you can land two rockets concurrently on barges and you smoke pot, you're seen as 'quirky and likeable'. When you don't go public and your investors lose money, all of a sudden they decide that smoking pot is a criminal activity." [1:30:30]
- jvanderbot 5y agoBlue Origin is doing non-launch things. They are working on a lander system and studying lunar mission concepts at a level of seriousness that does deserve some respect. https://www.discovermagazine.com/the-sciences/a-telescope-on-the-moon-could-illuminate-the-dark-ages-of-the-universe https://www.discovermagazine.com/the-sciences/a-telescope-on... I appreciate SpaceX's focus and god bless em for what they're doing in that sector, but there are other things to space than just delivery driving.
- tibyat 5y ago>a glorified amusement ride. Oh dear god that is too perfect. I had higher hopes for them as well, somehow they seem to lack direction.
- mr_toad 5y agoIs Blue Origin slow, or is SpaceX really, really fast?
- monk_e_boy 5y agoYes and yes. I expect Blue Origin are playing catch up with star ship. New Glenn could only self land the booster, not the upper stage. There's no way that could compete with star ship, it almost doesn't compete with falcon heavy.
- wolf550e 5y agohttps://arstechnica.com/science/2021/07/blue-origin-is-developing-reusable-second-stage-other-advanced-projects/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/07/blue-origin-is-devel...
- bryanlarsen 5y agoBlue Origin is slow, but doesn't stand out when compared to Old Space. SLS, for instance, is also taking a very long time. SpaceX is really, really fast.