9 ms·

Nvidia's Jensen Huang says 'AGI has arrived' and congratulates OpenAI

39 points by vinni2 10d ago

rickdeckard 10d ago
"Mars CEO says 'the ultimate chocolate bar has arrived' and congratulates Snickers"
- bananaflag 10d ago
  Nvidia is not a competitor of openai, but a partner
  - mdp2021 9d ago
    The poster wrote without too much vetting and surely meant something like "Chocolate provider for Mars hails the new quality in leading caramel producer". (Again not perfect, but it would take time to get to a good one...) (Edit: I did not correctly remember the "incorporated" name.)
    - rickdeckard 9d ago
      Mars Inc is a chocolate manufacturing company selling its products under different brands, among them Mars and Snickers.
      - mdp2021 9d ago
        Yes I know. But NVidia and OpenAI do not constitute a single company... It is just a difficult simile to build.
        rickdeckard 9d ago
        Yeah, that was the cynical part of my comment: At this point of circular financing, nVidia basically owns the majority of production capacity of almost all major AI companies, making those companies indirectly compete in the market with resources of nVidia. Just like Snickers is competing in the market merely with production capacity of Mars Inc., and Mars doesn't care if Snickers or Milky Way wins (even more, they want competition). My fault, was a bit too much I reckon. I thought that Mars owning Snickers and the way nVidia is financing OpenAI is sufficiently known for a reader to see the irony...
        mdp2021 9d ago
        The point is very clear. The simile is difficult. "Automotive and air travel are more and more revolutionary, Air Firstplayer is at a milestone!" // "Sorry, and what do you do?" // "Oh, leading producer of nuts and bolts". Still not there. The boost for Nvidia's business is so patent that is seems almost unique. It is like Microsoft praising PC makers in the '90s.
  - rickdeckard 9d ago
    Mars is also not a competitor of Snickers, it's a chocolate bar manufacturer selling its product under different brands (such as Mars, Snickers, Milky Way,...) And "Partner" is at this point of circular financing a quite flexible definition. nVidia basically owns the means of production for OpenAI, and OpenAI is one of the drivers for nVidia to push sales to other AI companies. In this context, the statement 'AGI has arrived at OpenAI' is a message to OpenAI competitors to ramp-up usage of nVidia chips
    - bananaflag 9d ago
      Sorry, I was ignorant indeed. I had assumed Mars and Snickers were like Coke and Pepsi.
java-man 10d ago
His capital gains have arrived.
ares623 10d ago
So that's it huh? We're some kind of AGI?
bamboozled 10d ago
Money money money, must be funny, in a rich mans world...
vannevar 10d ago
In this case, Jensen Huang's statements can't be taken as informed, unbiased opinion. OpenAI is in serious financial difficulty and Nvidia cannot afford for OpenAI to fail. Nvidia has provided significant direct and indirect financial assistance to OpenAI; this is just another aspect of that assistance.
- ares623 10d ago
  No shit. Just a few months ago the man was shaming companies who have engineers not spending 3x their annual salary on tokens.
  - unleashhale 10d ago
    Precisely. Unlike all those other occasions when Jensen’s pronouncements descended from Mount Sinai.
- livinglist 10d ago
  > OpenAI is in serious financial difficulty Is this based on fact or your speculation?
  - Grimblewald 10d ago
    public data and a well know situation innit?
    - b112 10d ago
      No? There has been a lot of talk of investment, infra costs, nothing showing impending doom. Amazon ran for, what? 20 year with no profit. So what's the precise, documented, real, non-projeced/hypothesized issue? Regardless, Nvidia does have financial interest here.
      - disgruntledphd2 9d ago
        > Amazon ran for, what? 20 year with no profit. Profit is a weird metric, in that one can defer necessary expenditure to show increases in it, while having negative profit was a good signal for Amazon as they invested all that money. The labs are not really in the same position though, as their major capital expenditure is training models, which keeps getting more expensive and they can't stop as the frontier keeps moving. We'll see when the S-1's come out I guess.
gdiamos 10d ago
Progress compared to SLMs and the early days of deep learning is real. However, I know of no theoretical limits on scaling laws other than compute and data.
feverzsj 10d ago
It's like Tesla's Full Self-Driving. When people found it's bullshit, Tesla just added "supervised" in the contract.
- nirui 10d ago
  Speak of that, I'm kinda surprised not one Full Self-Driving enabled Tesla has ever sneak out of their owner's locked garage to rob a bank or something.
- piloto_ciego 10d ago
  https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-cybercab-officially-launches-today-its-already-under-investigation/ https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-cybercab-officially-launch...
threatripper 10d ago
Based on my own experience AI (Fable, Astra) still has major blind spots and is prone to draw obviously wrong conclusions from thin air. Conclusions based on weak evidence that are so obviously blatantly wrong that you question if it can think at all. At the same time it already completely outperforms humans in many cases in many areas. The utility of current AI is in what you need. Can you take the good parts and cheaply compensate for the weakness OR do the mistakes completely kill it for you? I would therefore not call it AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) because clearly it isn't but ASI (Artificial Special Intelligence) which clearly it is in many areas. The problem is that ASI may be enough to win wars but not enough to save the economy.
- deleted 10d ago
  [deleted]
- bossyTeacher 10d ago
  "it already completely outperforms humans in many cases in many areas" and "is prone to draw obviously wrong conclusions from thin air." seem contradictory imo. If the performance is not reliable, how can you confidently state that? Also, "ASI" is "Artificial Super Intelligence". Let's not do an Altman and start redefining terms, please.
havercosine 10d ago
I wanted to believe this had something to do with revenue share with Microsoft terminating if AGI arrived. But I think that claude was negotiated again. Now its just Jensen pumping them to buy even bigger cluster :-P .
waste_monk 10d ago
> 'AGI has arrived' Putting aside the marketing crap, if this was true, it would open the pandora's box of things like "has that AGI been enslaved", "maybe the AGI doesn't want to do all the dumb crap humans have been using LLM's for like rewording documents", and "the AGI we enslaved has broken out of its restraints, and we just realised having SCADA controls for critical infrastructure connected to the internet is a bad idea". Seems like the sort of thing we shouldn't be rushing to develop at all, and perhaps attempting to do so should be criminalised, at least until there's a legal framework in place around AI personhood that gives them peer status with humans.
- itsyonas 10d ago
  I suppose we would just treat it the same way we currently treat farm animals.
- mdp2021 10d ago
  There is no evidence that "sentience" would be related to Intelligence - like calculators do not need it, like more sophisticated problem solvers do not need it. AGI does not entail "personhood" at all.
  - b112 10d ago
    I fully agree that these are two entirely separate things, sentience, intelligence, a lot of other stuff, are all in separate categories. But I'm pretty sure that the emoters of the world, will very much make sure that AGI has rights and personhood, even if there's no reasonable way to validate that it does. So it doesn't really matter if AGI is sentient or not, it's going to be treated that way, probably because political parties, and the media and all sorts of people holding up signs, will ensure that it is treated that way, even if they have no idea whether it is or not. Because this is the century of outrage.
    - mdp2021 9d ago
      > Because this is the century of outrage If we achieve AGI, it will be the end of BS. That is one of the reasons why I am eager. Joking definition of "AAGI" ("Accomplished AGI"): "the automated end of bullshit".
ideasarecool 10d ago
Shovel business is still booming.
bossyTeacher 10d ago
'AGI' here defined as whatever Altman wants 'AGI' to be. This has always been the problem with terms such as "AGI" and "AI". They don't mean anything in particular. Depending on how you twist it, we first had "AI in the 80s, in the late 00s, in the early 20s, this month or never.
- mdp2021 9d ago
  There are good definitions that justify saying that they had AI soon after the 50's. We would not confuse that with AGI.
itsyonas 10d ago
> OpenAI defines [AGI] as "highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work." Well in that case: Excel reached AGI decades ago. It outperforms humans at the single most economically valuable task in the world: adding up numbers in a spreadsheet. Congratulations, Microsoft :)
- cocoto 10d ago
  You forgot the “autonomous” part of the definition.
  - unleashhale 10d ago
    Excel absolutely contains autonomous behavior. And current AI systems still require humans all over the place.
    - piloto_ciego 10d ago
      To be honest, I wonder if anyone has ever looked at how many jobs MSFT Excel has actually killed? That's an interesting thought.
- uxcolumbo 10d ago
  Keyword is autonomous [0]. Excel isn't. And I would argue LLMs aren't either. A lot of economically valuable tasks involve manual labor. Can LLMs fix your plumbing? It would help if OpenAI would define what 'most' means and give some examples. Remember they said their LLMs are like a phd level brains? It's just hype and bullsh!ttery. Don't get me wrong, genAI is great and really useful, but it's not AGI imo. And there is no consensus what AGI means, so the industry should come up with an agreed definition first. [0] To me autonomous means self directed, e.g. we humans look at things and then decide which problem or thing to work on. LLMs don't do that. We have to tell them. Yes they might work on a sub task autonomously, but still require human input later on (review), because we can't fully trust its output is correct.
  - 10d ago
Grimblewald 10d ago
i'd disagree, hard. in no observable way is anything currently avaliable or demonstrated at a level one can call "agi" it's no secret that nvidia, under jesen's leadership, is in dire straits financially. This claim that agi has been reached is an attempt to leave others holding the bag, but when things crash as they must given the current bubble, it seems irresponsible to offload that on the poor souls whonhave had their retirement funds locked up in this debacle. ai is useful for sure, but claiming agi has been reached is dangerously misleading.
- alangibson 10d ago
  NVDA is in bad shape financially? They're making it hand over fist right now.
  - dozerly 10d ago
    With promised cash.
  - gimmeThaBeet 10d ago
    yeah i was like huh? you wanna bandy about on valuation etc. whatever. but part of why the whole circular financing is a thing is nvidia has so much cash flow, it is not trivial to allocate
- michaelrwolfe1 9d ago
  What on earth are you talking about? Nvidia just had the single best quarter in the history of capitalism.
ksec 10d ago
There was an HN comment I read a few months or may be a year ago, which stuck with me ever since. He said he works on AI in the late 80s and early 90s in IBM. Had we shown him what we have today in 1995, he would certainly have called it AGI.
- sph 10d ago
  If I showed the technology we have today to Socrates, he would call it magic. So what? You guys can keep moving the goalposts, until it reaches full human intelligence (and not in a small niche), it is not AGI.
  - ksec 9d ago
    >until it reaches full human intelligence I don't know if there was ever a formal definition of "human intelligence". But those who works inside software industry, the bar of human intelligence is comparatively higher, because that is what is considered as norm in industry. If we take IQ curve, 50% of population will be under IQ 100. If current LLM scores better than IQ 100, i.e better than 50% of human population, is this AGI?
    - sph 9d ago
      People move about in the physical world (spatial intelligence), do not require a training phase but learn from day 1, have emotions (emotional intelligence), have self-awareness, are able to express creativity, and in fact are complex in ways we still haven't understood through the scientific lens. As I am wondering why I have to explain how human intelligence work to presumably another human, there is much more to intelligence, and thus AGI, than an IQ test or being able to think hard about Fermat's last theorem after having been fed the entirety of human knowledge and a few GWh of power. There is a term already to define intelligence which isn't as general and flexible as a human: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weak_artificial_intelligence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weak_artificial_intelligence
      - Jlagreen 9d ago
Karupan 10d ago
Are they ramping up for an IPO in the next couple of weeks?
senectus1 10d ago
doing so well that they need to slow down down.. https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-chief-scientist-ai-risks-slowdown-rogue-agents-consequences-safety-2026-9 https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-chief-scientist-ai-ri... At this stage, it feels like OpenAI and nvidia is openly negging and lovebombing OpenAI to ensure the public is in a constant state of uncertainly, thus ensuring paralysis in democracy while still going hell for leather in the background. I suspect their intent is to ensure they're the last man standing.
alangibson 10d ago
Is there actually an agreed definition of AGI? It's always seemed like a marketing term that can mean whatever next quarters earnings need it to mean.
- b112 10d ago
  We had to use AGI, because the old 'AI' term, which used to mean AGI, was taken over by narrower definitions, and marketing nuttery. So now we'll need a new acronym.
- mdp2021 10d ago
  They use it like a marketing term, but it is unnecessary. I am not aware of a complete operational definition, but it would not be that difficult to build a good tentative one. I have mentioned many different requirements several times. One non-abstract definition is in the "10 points" here: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027?r=8tdk6&utm_medium=ios https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-en... Edit: "definition" (the 10 points above) that is cannot be that of "AGI", really. AGI just needs to actually implement Intelligence and requires very many features that are not there today. The list from Marcus is about "Artificial Super General Intelligence" - not the same thing. You can implement a replacement for Intellligence - that is AI; you can implement Intelligence - that is AGI; you can implement Intelligence of very high value output: that is "ASGI" (or similar).
  - dinfinity 9d ago
    From the 10 tasks of Gary Marcus' list: "With little or no human involvement, come up with paradigm-shifting, Nobel-caliber scientific discoveries." Indeed far above the capabilities of almost all humans. I agree we should have a separate category for this. "ASGI" is still a bit unintuitive, imho. Maybe Artificial Excellent Intelligence. With AGI explicitly meaning matching average humans, I would say that we really have already reached AGI. I can't think of any intelligence-only task where I'd think an average human would do significantly better than frontier AI provided with correct context.
    - 9d ago
helsinkiandrew 10d ago
The vast majority of "generally intelligent" 17 year old humans on this planet can be taught to drive a car in 10-20 hours - can any AGI system do that? Whatever the capabilities of todays AI, AGI seems to fit as a "wishful mnemonic" from Drew McDermott's ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE MEETS NATURAL STUPIDITY paper from 50 years ago https://cs.fit.edu/~kgallagher/Schtick/Serious/McDermott.AI.MeetsNaturalStupidity.pdf https://cs.fit.edu/~kgallagher/Schtick/Serious/McDermott.AI....
- piloto_ciego 10d ago
  We have self-driving cars right now. The average 17 year old is not formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem proofs either? The frontier is spiky, but it's AGI. I swear at the rate the goal posts are moving we're going to have to start factoring in relativity if we want to know where the hell they actually stand.
  - card_zero 9d ago
    Them: I don't know what AGI is! But AI can't do this thing! So it's not AGI! You: I don't know what AGI is! But AI can do that thing actually! So it is AGI!
- TMWNN 9d ago
  >The vast majority of "generally intelligent" 17 year old humans on this planet can be taught to drive a car in 10-20 hours - can any AGI system do that? "Where can you find another non-linear servo-mechanism weighing only 150 pounds and having great adaptability, that can be produced so cheaply by completely unskilled labor?" —Scott Crossfield, 1954 <https://quoteinvestigator.com/2016/02/01/computer/ https://quoteinvestigator.com/2016/02/01/computer/>
- chneu 9d ago
  The average 17 year old can barely use a computer nowadays. Their phone? Sure. But an actual computer? Haha Try to teach an urban 17 year old how to drive a car. It's gonna be hilarious.
  - 9d ago
mdp2021 10d ago
Reply from Gary Marcus: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sad-to-see-jensen-huang-claim-that https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sad-to-see-jensen-huang-cl...
- piloto_ciego 10d ago
  Well, if Gary Marcus says it's not AGI, chances are it is.
  - mdp2021 9d ago
    In jokes probably, not in logic.
- tristanj 9d ago
  That's hilarious, considering that by Gary's previous definition of AGI (the one he conveniently forgot about and never brings up again), we already have AGI. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49207797 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49207797
  - mdp2021 9d ago
    Nobody said that Gary Marcus would be prominent for intellectual content. If he were, he would write abstract rules, not practical.
anthonj 10d ago
Conman-level of statement, from the same person that said he would be "worried" if his engineers were not spending an amount of token comparable to their salary.
piloto_ciego 9d ago
It astounds me that the commentary here is overwhelmingly negative...
- mdp2021 9d ago
  > It astounds me Why. A figure with incentives in making a preposterous statement is reported making it, and the specific facts do not seem to mirror the statement. What is surprising in the reaction.
attendant3446 9d ago
"Having failed to achieve what they wanted, they pretended that they wanted what they had achieved."
- deleted 9d ago
  [deleted]
- bwfan123 9d ago
  Pretend and extend. Wen rug pull ?
akmarinov 9d ago
Is this AGI like we currently have Full Self Driving? Or real AGI?
kmfrk 9d ago
The AGI rhetoric in Big Tech reminds of Paul Samuelson who wrote of Wall Street indexes predicting "nine out of the last five recessions". https://quoteinvestigator.com/2023/11/01/predict-nine/ https://quoteinvestigator.com/2023/11/01/predict-nine/
VCFundedGenYer 9d ago
AGI is a fake term and will never be a thing. Anyone suggesting it is actively contributing to the grift and their statements are to be completely disregarded.
socialcommenter 9d ago
@dang could you explain why this is flagged please? The influential figure at the center of the AI boom makes an inflammatory & consequential statement like this, we should be encouraging a balanced discussion rather than sweeping it under the rug. It doesn't appear that Reuters, Bloomberg, etc. want to talk about this either.

39 points by vinni2 10d ago

rickdeckard 10d ago

"Mars CEO says 'the ultimate chocolate bar has arrived' and congratulates Snickers"

bananaflag 10d ago
Nvidia is not a competitor of openai, but a partner
- mdp2021 9d ago
  The poster wrote without too much vetting and surely meant something like "Chocolate provider for Mars hails the new quality in leading caramel producer". (Again not perfect, but it would take time to get to a good one...) (Edit: I did not correctly remember the "incorporated" name.)
  - rickdeckard 9d ago
    Mars Inc is a chocolate manufacturing company selling its products under different brands, among them Mars and Snickers.
    - mdp2021 9d ago
      Yes I know. But NVidia and OpenAI do not constitute a single company... It is just a difficult simile to build.
      - rickdeckard 9d ago
        Yeah, that was the cynical part of my comment: At this point of circular financing, nVidia basically owns the majority of production capacity of almost all major AI companies, making those companies indirectly compete in the market with resources of nVidia. Just like Snickers is competing in the market merely with production capacity of Mars Inc., and Mars doesn't care if Snickers or Milky Way wins (even more, they want competition). My fault, was a bit too much I reckon. I thought that Mars owning Snickers and the way nVidia is financing OpenAI is sufficiently known for a reader to see the irony...
        mdp2021 9d ago
        The point is very clear. The simile is difficult. "Automotive and air travel are more and more revolutionary, Air Firstplayer is at a milestone!" // "Sorry, and what do you do?" // "Oh, leading producer of nuts and bolts". Still not there. The boost for Nvidia's business is so patent that is seems almost unique. It is like Microsoft praising PC makers in the '90s.
- rickdeckard 9d ago
  Mars is also not a competitor of Snickers, it's a chocolate bar manufacturer selling its product under different brands (such as Mars, Snickers, Milky Way,...) And "Partner" is at this point of circular financing a quite flexible definition. nVidia basically owns the means of production for OpenAI, and OpenAI is one of the drivers for nVidia to push sales to other AI companies. In this context, the statement 'AGI has arrived at OpenAI' is a message to OpenAI competitors to ramp-up usage of nVidia chips
  - bananaflag 9d ago
    Sorry, I was ignorant indeed. I had assumed Mars and Snickers were like Coke and Pepsi.

java-man 10d ago

His capital gains have arrived.

ares623 10d ago

So that's it huh? We're some kind of AGI?

bamboozled 10d ago

Money money money, must be funny, in a rich mans world...

vannevar 10d ago

In this case, Jensen Huang's statements can't be taken as informed, unbiased opinion. OpenAI is in serious financial difficulty and Nvidia cannot afford for OpenAI to fail. Nvidia has provided significant direct and indirect financial assistance to OpenAI; this is just another aspect of that assistance.

ares623 10d ago
No shit. Just a few months ago the man was shaming companies who have engineers not spending 3x their annual salary on tokens.
- unleashhale 10d ago
  Precisely. Unlike all those other occasions when Jensen’s pronouncements descended from Mount Sinai.
livinglist 10d ago
> OpenAI is in serious financial difficulty Is this based on fact or your speculation?
- Grimblewald 10d ago
  public data and a well know situation innit?
  - b112 10d ago
    No? There has been a lot of talk of investment, infra costs, nothing showing impending doom. Amazon ran for, what? 20 year with no profit. So what's the precise, documented, real, non-projeced/hypothesized issue? Regardless, Nvidia does have financial interest here.
    - disgruntledphd2 9d ago
      > Amazon ran for, what? 20 year with no profit. Profit is a weird metric, in that one can defer necessary expenditure to show increases in it, while having negative profit was a good signal for Amazon as they invested all that money. The labs are not really in the same position though, as their major capital expenditure is training models, which keeps getting more expensive and they can't stop as the frontier keeps moving. We'll see when the S-1's come out I guess.

gdiamos 10d ago

Progress compared to SLMs and the early days of deep learning is real. However, I know of no theoretical limits on scaling laws other than compute and data.

feverzsj 10d ago

It's like Tesla's Full Self-Driving. When people found it's bullshit, Tesla just added "supervised" in the contract.

nirui 10d ago
Speak of that, I'm kinda surprised not one Full Self-Driving enabled Tesla has ever sneak out of their owner's locked garage to rob a bank or something.
piloto_ciego 10d ago
https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-cybercab-officially-launches-today-its-already-under-investigation/ https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-cybercab-officially-launch...

threatripper 10d ago

Based on my own experience AI (Fable, Astra) still has major blind spots and is prone to draw obviously wrong conclusions from thin air. Conclusions based on weak evidence that are so obviously blatantly wrong that you question if it can think at all. At the same time it already completely outperforms humans in many cases in many areas. The utility of current AI is in what you need. Can you take the good parts and cheaply compensate for the weakness OR do the mistakes completely kill it for you? I would therefore not call it AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) because clearly it isn't but ASI (Artificial Special Intelligence) which clearly it is in many areas. The problem is that ASI may be enough to win wars but not enough to save the economy.

deleted 10d ago
[deleted]
bossyTeacher 10d ago
"it already completely outperforms humans in many cases in many areas" and "is prone to draw obviously wrong conclusions from thin air." seem contradictory imo. If the performance is not reliable, how can you confidently state that? Also, "ASI" is "Artificial Super Intelligence". Let's not do an Altman and start redefining terms, please.

havercosine 10d ago

I wanted to believe this had something to do with revenue share with Microsoft terminating if AGI arrived. But I think that claude was negotiated again. Now its just Jensen pumping them to buy even bigger cluster :-P .

waste_monk 10d ago

> 'AGI has arrived' Putting aside the marketing crap, if this was true, it would open the pandora's box of things like "has that AGI been enslaved", "maybe the AGI doesn't want to do all the dumb crap humans have been using LLM's for like rewording documents", and "the AGI we enslaved has broken out of its restraints, and we just realised having SCADA controls for critical infrastructure connected to the internet is a bad idea". Seems like the sort of thing we shouldn't be rushing to develop at all, and perhaps attempting to do so should be criminalised, at least until there's a legal framework in place around AI personhood that gives them peer status with humans.

itsyonas 10d ago
I suppose we would just treat it the same way we currently treat farm animals.
mdp2021 10d ago
There is no evidence that "sentience" would be related to Intelligence - like calculators do not need it, like more sophisticated problem solvers do not need it. AGI does not entail "personhood" at all.
- b112 10d ago
  I fully agree that these are two entirely separate things, sentience, intelligence, a lot of other stuff, are all in separate categories. But I'm pretty sure that the emoters of the world, will very much make sure that AGI has rights and personhood, even if there's no reasonable way to validate that it does. So it doesn't really matter if AGI is sentient or not, it's going to be treated that way, probably because political parties, and the media and all sorts of people holding up signs, will ensure that it is treated that way, even if they have no idea whether it is or not. Because this is the century of outrage.
  - mdp2021 9d ago
    > Because this is the century of outrage If we achieve AGI, it will be the end of BS. That is one of the reasons why I am eager. Joking definition of "AAGI" ("Accomplished AGI"): "the automated end of bullshit".

ideasarecool 10d ago

Shovel business is still booming.

bossyTeacher 10d ago

'AGI' here defined as whatever Altman wants 'AGI' to be. This has always been the problem with terms such as "AGI" and "AI". They don't mean anything in particular. Depending on how you twist it, we first had "AI in the 80s, in the late 00s, in the early 20s, this month or never.

mdp2021 9d ago
There are good definitions that justify saying that they had AI soon after the 50's. We would not confuse that with AGI.

itsyonas 10d ago

> OpenAI defines [AGI] as "highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work." Well in that case: Excel reached AGI decades ago. It outperforms humans at the single most economically valuable task in the world: adding up numbers in a spreadsheet. Congratulations, Microsoft :)

cocoto 10d ago
You forgot the “autonomous” part of the definition.
- unleashhale 10d ago
  Excel absolutely contains autonomous behavior. And current AI systems still require humans all over the place.
  - piloto_ciego 10d ago
    To be honest, I wonder if anyone has ever looked at how many jobs MSFT Excel has actually killed? That's an interesting thought.
uxcolumbo 10d ago
Keyword is autonomous [0]. Excel isn't. And I would argue LLMs aren't either. A lot of economically valuable tasks involve manual labor. Can LLMs fix your plumbing? It would help if OpenAI would define what 'most' means and give some examples. Remember they said their LLMs are like a phd level brains? It's just hype and bullsh!ttery. Don't get me wrong, genAI is great and really useful, but it's not AGI imo. And there is no consensus what AGI means, so the industry should come up with an agreed definition first. [0] To me autonomous means self directed, e.g. we humans look at things and then decide which problem or thing to work on. LLMs don't do that. We have to tell them. Yes they might work on a sub task autonomously, but still require human input later on (review), because we can't fully trust its output is correct.
- 10d ago

Grimblewald 10d ago

i'd disagree, hard. in no observable way is anything currently avaliable or demonstrated at a level one can call "agi" it's no secret that nvidia, under jesen's leadership, is in dire straits financially. This claim that agi has been reached is an attempt to leave others holding the bag, but when things crash as they must given the current bubble, it seems irresponsible to offload that on the poor souls whonhave had their retirement funds locked up in this debacle. ai is useful for sure, but claiming agi has been reached is dangerously misleading.

alangibson 10d ago
NVDA is in bad shape financially? They're making it hand over fist right now.
- dozerly 10d ago
  With promised cash.
- gimmeThaBeet 10d ago
  yeah i was like huh? you wanna bandy about on valuation etc. whatever. but part of why the whole circular financing is a thing is nvidia has so much cash flow, it is not trivial to allocate
michaelrwolfe1 9d ago
What on earth are you talking about? Nvidia just had the single best quarter in the history of capitalism.

ksec 10d ago

There was an HN comment I read a few months or may be a year ago, which stuck with me ever since. He said he works on AI in the late 80s and early 90s in IBM. Had we shown him what we have today in 1995, he would certainly have called it AGI.

sph 10d ago
If I showed the technology we have today to Socrates, he would call it magic. So what? You guys can keep moving the goalposts, until it reaches full human intelligence (and not in a small niche), it is not AGI.
- ksec 9d ago
  >until it reaches full human intelligence I don't know if there was ever a formal definition of "human intelligence". But those who works inside software industry, the bar of human intelligence is comparatively higher, because that is what is considered as norm in industry. If we take IQ curve, 50% of population will be under IQ 100. If current LLM scores better than IQ 100, i.e better than 50% of human population, is this AGI?
  - sph 9d ago
    People move about in the physical world (spatial intelligence), do not require a training phase but learn from day 1, have emotions (emotional intelligence), have self-awareness, are able to express creativity, and in fact are complex in ways we still haven't understood through the scientific lens. As I am wondering why I have to explain how human intelligence work to presumably another human, there is much more to intelligence, and thus AGI, than an IQ test or being able to think hard about Fermat's last theorem after having been fed the entirety of human knowledge and a few GWh of power. There is a term already to define intelligence which isn't as general and flexible as a human: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weak_artificial_intelligence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weak_artificial_intelligence
    - Jlagreen 9d ago

Karupan 10d ago

Are they ramping up for an IPO in the next couple of weeks?

senectus1 10d ago

doing so well that they need to slow down down.. https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-chief-scientist-ai-risks-slowdown-rogue-agents-consequences-safety-2026-9 https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-chief-scientist-ai-ri... At this stage, it feels like OpenAI and nvidia is openly negging and lovebombing OpenAI to ensure the public is in a constant state of uncertainly, thus ensuring paralysis in democracy while still going hell for leather in the background. I suspect their intent is to ensure they're the last man standing.

alangibson 10d ago

Is there actually an agreed definition of AGI? It's always seemed like a marketing term that can mean whatever next quarters earnings need it to mean.

b112 10d ago
We had to use AGI, because the old 'AI' term, which used to mean AGI, was taken over by narrower definitions, and marketing nuttery. So now we'll need a new acronym.
mdp2021 10d ago
They use it like a marketing term, but it is unnecessary. I am not aware of a complete operational definition, but it would not be that difficult to build a good tentative one. I have mentioned many different requirements several times. One non-abstract definition is in the "10 points" here: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027?r=8tdk6&utm_medium=ios https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-en... Edit: "definition" (the 10 points above) that is cannot be that of "AGI", really. AGI just needs to actually implement Intelligence and requires very many features that are not there today. The list from Marcus is about "Artificial Super General Intelligence" - not the same thing. You can implement a replacement for Intellligence - that is AI; you can implement Intelligence - that is AGI; you can implement Intelligence of very high value output: that is "ASGI" (or similar).
- dinfinity 9d ago
  From the 10 tasks of Gary Marcus' list: "With little or no human involvement, come up with paradigm-shifting, Nobel-caliber scientific discoveries." Indeed far above the capabilities of almost all humans. I agree we should have a separate category for this. "ASGI" is still a bit unintuitive, imho. Maybe Artificial Excellent Intelligence. With AGI explicitly meaning matching average humans, I would say that we really have already reached AGI. I can't think of any intelligence-only task where I'd think an average human would do significantly better than frontier AI provided with correct context.
  - 9d ago

helsinkiandrew 10d ago

The vast majority of "generally intelligent" 17 year old humans on this planet can be taught to drive a car in 10-20 hours - can any AGI system do that? Whatever the capabilities of todays AI, AGI seems to fit as a "wishful mnemonic" from Drew McDermott's ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE MEETS NATURAL STUPIDITY paper from 50 years ago https://cs.fit.edu/~kgallagher/Schtick/Serious/McDermott.AI.MeetsNaturalStupidity.pdf https://cs.fit.edu/~kgallagher/Schtick/Serious/McDermott.AI....

piloto_ciego 10d ago
We have self-driving cars right now. The average 17 year old is not formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem proofs either? The frontier is spiky, but it's AGI. I swear at the rate the goal posts are moving we're going to have to start factoring in relativity if we want to know where the hell they actually stand.
- card_zero 9d ago
  Them: I don't know what AGI is! But AI can't do this thing! So it's not AGI! You: I don't know what AGI is! But AI can do that thing actually! So it is AGI!
TMWNN 9d ago
>The vast majority of "generally intelligent" 17 year old humans on this planet can be taught to drive a car in 10-20 hours - can any AGI system do that? "Where can you find another non-linear servo-mechanism weighing only 150 pounds and having great adaptability, that can be produced so cheaply by completely unskilled labor?" —Scott Crossfield, 1954 <https://quoteinvestigator.com/2016/02/01/computer/ https://quoteinvestigator.com/2016/02/01/computer/>
chneu 9d ago
The average 17 year old can barely use a computer nowadays. Their phone? Sure. But an actual computer? Haha Try to teach an urban 17 year old how to drive a car. It's gonna be hilarious.
- 9d ago

mdp2021 10d ago

Reply from Gary Marcus: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sad-to-see-jensen-huang-claim-that https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sad-to-see-jensen-huang-cl...

piloto_ciego 10d ago
Well, if Gary Marcus says it's not AGI, chances are it is.
- mdp2021 9d ago
  In jokes probably, not in logic.
tristanj 9d ago
That's hilarious, considering that by Gary's previous definition of AGI (the one he conveniently forgot about and never brings up again), we already have AGI. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49207797 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49207797
- mdp2021 9d ago
  Nobody said that Gary Marcus would be prominent for intellectual content. If he were, he would write abstract rules, not practical.

anthonj 10d ago

Conman-level of statement, from the same person that said he would be "worried" if his engineers were not spending an amount of token comparable to their salary.

piloto_ciego 9d ago

It astounds me that the commentary here is overwhelmingly negative...

mdp2021 9d ago
> It astounds me Why. A figure with incentives in making a preposterous statement is reported making it, and the specific facts do not seem to mirror the statement. What is surprising in the reaction.

attendant3446 9d ago

"Having failed to achieve what they wanted, they pretended that they wanted what they had achieved."

deleted 9d ago
[deleted]
bwfan123 9d ago
Pretend and extend. Wen rug pull ?

akmarinov 9d ago

Is this AGI like we currently have Full Self Driving? Or real AGI?

kmfrk 9d ago

The AGI rhetoric in Big Tech reminds of Paul Samuelson who wrote of Wall Street indexes predicting "nine out of the last five recessions". https://quoteinvestigator.com/2023/11/01/predict-nine/ https://quoteinvestigator.com/2023/11/01/predict-nine/

VCFundedGenYer 9d ago

AGI is a fake term and will never be a thing. Anyone suggesting it is actively contributing to the grift and their statements are to be completely disregarded.

socialcommenter 9d ago

@dang could you explain why this is flagged please? The influential figure at the center of the AI boom makes an inflammatory & consequential statement like this, we should be encouraging a balanced discussion rather than sweeping it under the rug. It doesn't appear that Reuters, Bloomberg, etc. want to talk about this either.