Jlagreen

8 ms·

1.
by Jlagreen 10d ago
I hope that AI will never: - have emotions - have self-awareness - express creativity Why? Because that would be the end of humanity. In such a case, AI will feel "superior" like humans do to other animals. And we know how that wi
2.
by Jlagreen 17d ago
if TSMC decided to charge more then Nvidia would profit the most. Simple reason is that TSMC has to offer same pricing to all customers or face regulation issues. But expensive wafers is an issue for those with lower margins not the king of
3.
by Jlagreen 17d ago
I suggest looking into Nvidia's DGX and DSX systems. Basically, everything of a data center except for RAM+SSD comes now from Nvidia as a vendor. Nvidia's margin is so high because they deliver way more than just a GPU.
4.
by Jlagreen 17d ago
Nvidia already announced in 2023 a partnerhsip for a 2 GW system in India. That was before even Blackwell was released. Back then that was a bigger deal than any Hyperscaler. Do people seriously think that data centers and AI compute is onl
5.
by Jlagreen 17d ago
Everyone looks way to narrow on nations. AI compute and AI usage is a global thing. Look at South Korea in the 70s and today. Technology helped South Korea to leapfrog many Western companies in a few decades. It will happen again. Many 3rd
6.
by Jlagreen 17d ago
And the most important part of it, no matter who or what or which, it all comes down to AI compute or token generation. And which company profits the most from exponential growth in token generation? Here we go, I just drew a "circle&q
7.
by Jlagreen 17d ago
Nvidia doesn't have to remain a monopoly to get all the profit. In the smartphone market, Apple isn't #1 in units but generates 75% of the profit of the whole market. Would you rather be #1 in units or profit? There is a reason wh
8.
by Jlagreen 24d ago
Everyone is looking what Big Tech is doing with their cashflow without understanding what is really going on. What is the TAM of AI and therefore the future AI compute demand? Answer this question and you might understand what is going on.
9.
by Jlagreen 1mo ago
The analogy with IBM mainframe completely ignores Murphy's law which came up and lead to the small and fast chips we have today. But Murphy's law is dead. No future chip will leapfrog easily current chips because we have reached h
10.
by Jlagreen 8mo ago
And what about the extra energy consumption of the RTX 5070 TI vs. a iGPU? If you go GPU cloud then you can save on energy as well in your PC. Less energy means also less noise by the way. To get an idea, if you go gaming via cloud then fas
11.
by Jlagreen 10mo ago
How many customers do you think AMD and AVGO have in AI? Nvidia having 4 customers at 60% is good news because it was 90% 2 years ago.
12.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
There is one answer to this question which is called options. Selling short term OTM CCs with half of premium being used to buy ITM Calls (1/3 protection of the CC), OTM Calls (protection against gap up) and longterm OTM Puts (earn mon
13.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
All Tech companies including OpenAI have initiatives for their own chips. Nobody talks about Intel. Tech companies have the following options: 1. Buy Nvdia high performance stack with stable and fast support and deploy your SW developers to
14.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
On huge GPU clusters running inferencing the utilization of GPUs is key. Imagine you have 1 million GPUs and you have 99% utilization of theoretical performance in the system with inferencing. That would mean 10k of GPUs are basically idle
15.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
AMD was desperate enough to sell 10% of their company to get 1 customer. The issue here is now, that every large customer of AMD will now probably ask for equity. AMD has put itself into a pit hole with that deal. If I were Hyperscaler CEO,
16.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
My cost base of Nvidia is $1 so for me to lose is that Nvidia gets back to way before COVID valuation. Nvidia is more worth than $1 per share on gaming alone.
17.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
And you have that right. And now imagine what will happen when OpenAI makes deals with Nvidia and AMD. Do you think Hyperscalers will just watch? I expect Musk to make a $1 trillion deal soon. I guess, that's why he wants to get the $1
18.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
So, it's basically trying to catch up again: https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/solutions/quantum-computing/ Or some interesting news here: https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-powers
19.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
Nvidia already has an ecosystem with 2 milliond developers in robotics. Nvidia's CUDA for robotics started 11 years ago. And just like with CUDA no one else has currently the resources to go there because at the moment you have to inve
20.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
The console market is low margin because they seem to find someone ready to take low margin (e.g. AMD). Nvidia was in console market before but left it due to low margin. Nvidia only sells old low development chip with probably good margin
21.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
and what is China's market for High Tech chips outside of China? Will you buy an AI GPU coming from China on which you will train your sensitive data? People, really create some facts without checking some simple basic things. Huwai wa
22.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
Nvidia would probably not fail because they work already very closely with TSMC and have teams sitting there directly. Also Nvidia could even afford to burn 100s of billions of dollars since they are becoming the most profitable company in
23.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
Nvidia had $130b revenue last year, this year (2025) it will breach $200b with >90% of it being AI related. Estimates for next year are $300b. Sources are rumors about the supply of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs for 2025 and 2026 with estimat
24.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
DC GPUs from Nvidia are sold at $30-40k per piece. You might want to rethink your calculations. Nvidia is going to sell >5 million Blackwells this year and will do $200b in revenue with that alone. Nvidia has a high net profit margin of
25.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
AWS for Amazon was a logical step because who is AWS largest customer? Amazon of course. If you build large eCommerce like Amazon then of course you need huge IT infrastructure for it. Amazon was kind of forced to build the IT infrastructu
26.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
The worlds spends several trillions per year on public and private R&D. The AI frenzy could go on for a decade without making any money simple by R&D spend world wide. That's what people don't get. We're still primari
27.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
Except for ATI, Nvidia drove all of them out of business. There is a reason why Nvidia dominates all GPU markets.
28.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
That's because Nvidia is offering a full ecosystem stack with HW, SW and networking clusters. And that gives customers the most flexibility. Nvidia dominates training and is highly competitive in inferencing. At the same time, SW impro
29.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
Exactly, and Nvidia doesn't have to talk to the press, right? Or send them anything for free? The issue is that the press wants to show how a 8GB new card is slower than a 12GB older card in putting both in higher resolution comparison
30.
by Jlagreen 1y ago
Jensen opens every large meeting with the sentence "we will be out of business in 30 days, if you don't get things right". This is Nvidia's mantra for 3 decades and remains so even today. There is a reason why Nvidia dom

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