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Perhaps it doesn't come naturally for others and is therefore a bit of a struggle to shift into, but I love being unsure. It's great. It's a thing that's totall

by jjulius 23d ago

Perhaps it doesn't come naturally for others and is therefore a bit of a struggle to shift into, but I love being unsure. It's great. It's a thing that's totally okay to be. The reality of life is that we're all unsure about a great deal, and it's quite a nice feeling to acknowledge uncertainty, sit within it and feel okay.

tolerance 23d ago
People typically do not approach existential uncertainties with such intrepidness. I think this is the case for most people who hate AI. This article glosses over that.
- jjulius 23d ago
  I suppose I am one of the people who could technically be lumped into the "hate AI" category, and yet I find myself incredibly comfortable with the uncertainty around where things are going. Perhaps it's because, as I previously mentioned, I have always enjoyed the feeling of uncertainty (and I recognize that's not the norm for most), but it's also because the entire thing feels so hyperbolic from all angles that I can't help but assume that whatever happens will be somewhere "in the middle" of all the rhetoric everyone's spouting from everywhere. I also have a very, "The world's gonna do what the world's gonna do, the best I can do is find my path through and flow with it," attitude about, well... most things. Maybe that helps? Maybe I'm talking out of my ass rn? I'm unsure! :)
  - tolerance 23d ago
    No, I think that you're on to something and I wish you kept the original version of this part of your comment (yes I caught your edit and have it on my clipboard still!) because it touched on what I think about the whole "existential" bit of my own comment a bit more direct (but I think your edit expresses your attitude more sophisticatedly). Few people have anything that comes anywhere near any sort of philosophical foundation that they can rely on to weather their anxieties. If anything they only strengthen their sensibility to express—and compound—their worries.
  - n4r9 23d ago
    I would be the same way if either: I didn't have dependents and heavy responsibilities, or: I had enough in savings to last a few years without income. I'm fascinated to see where software engineering is going to go, but I can't be comfortable about a threat to my ability to pay my mortgage and give my family a decent life.
- grebc 23d ago
  There’s absolutely nothing existential about a program that guesses the next word based on the last.
  - tptacek 23d ago
    There is if you're a software developer!
    - the_great_talke 23d ago
      [flagged]
      - tolerance 23d ago
        For what it's worth...I launched tptacek's Markdown viewer, mdv, like yesterday.
  - arjie 23d ago
    Truly such a first-order Markov chain would not be a threat but it turns out that they have built a program that guesses the next word based on the last few hundred thousand and it turns out that it works pretty well for writing software.
    - grebc 23d ago
      Keep diving down the chain brother, I’m sure you’ll find the singularity down there somewhere.
  - ricketycricket 23d ago
    There’s absolutely nothing existential about a tiny powder that just combusts very quickly.
  - thephyber 20d ago
    What is the current unemployment rate of Computer Science new grads?
tptacek 23d ago
The observation here is basically a corollary to the idea that people experience loss outcomes differently than gain outcomes. It's not complicated or fuzzy.
lazyasciiart 23d ago
It is flat out not a nice feeling to experience uncertainty about things like "can I pay for someone to look after my child so I can go to work?" and "will I have food to eat this weekend?". For some people, "will AI mean my job goes away next year?" leads directly to those concrete uncertainties, and they understand that, and that is why they don't enjoy the uncertainty they are currently feeling. I'm guessing that for you, those first two concerns have not come up?
- jjulius 23d ago
  Sure! Uncertainty is a spectrum, and there are certainly moments where it's not a nice feeling. I'm a father, and I'd be lying if I said I haven't had those feelings over the years. My (making it very clear here that one's mileage will obviously vary) approach? I don't know what's going to happen. Maybe I'll need to figure out childcare, maybe I won't. Maybe I'll have food to eat this weekend, maybe I won't. Maybe my job will go away next year, maybe it won't. Today, there's work, and I'll do that work as best I can. Today, there's evidence things are changing, and I can be aware of that. Today, I can do something prudent to make myself more resilient towards whatever may or may not happen. Tomorrow, if something happens, I can react accordingly. The mind wants certainty, but that's not always available, so I observe the "wanting". The best I can do is act based on what's in front of me, and sitting in the negative emotions around existential thoughts doesn't help me, nor my family (it's natural to have them, but I acknowledge them and let them pass by). The best I can do is to do. If things change, I change. Everything in nature/life is ephemeral, and I have done my best throughout my life to set myself up to be as adaptable as possible. Edit: To reduce this and get a bit Tao-ish, you don't need to know the exact shape of the river downstream as long as you're capable of steering when you get there.
  - jancsika 23d ago
    > I don't know what's going to happen. Maybe I'll need to figure out childcare, maybe I won't. Maybe I'll have food to eat this weekend, maybe I won't. Maybe my job will go away next year, maybe it won't. Today, there's work, and I'll do that work as best I can. Today, there's evidence things are changing, and I can be aware of that. Today, I can do something prudent to make myself more resilient towards whatever may or may not happen. Tomorrow, if something happens, I can react accordingly. I take it you've never worked on realtime software. :) For most Americans with kids, if they don't figure out childcare they will miss deadlines. By missing deadlines they risk systemic failures: failure to make enough income to eat, keep their job, pay for healthcare, etc. It's easy to get Tao-ish about meeting deadlines when your buffer is above 100k.
63stack 23d ago
I'm pretty sure I could post "standing in the fire is painful and bad for your health" and there would at least be one person in the comments saying "I actually like standing in the fire".
- jjulius 23d ago
  Of course you would! I'm sure you'd see some firefighters or arsonists who would respond in such a manner. It's a very natural thing for some people to find a positive of some kind in things that many people find to be a negative.

by jjulius 23d ago

tolerance 23d ago

People typically do not approach existential uncertainties with such intrepidness. I think this is the case for most people who hate AI. This article glosses over that.

jjulius 23d ago
I suppose I am one of the people who could technically be lumped into the "hate AI" category, and yet I find myself incredibly comfortable with the uncertainty around where things are going. Perhaps it's because, as I previously mentioned, I have always enjoyed the feeling of uncertainty (and I recognize that's not the norm for most), but it's also because the entire thing feels so hyperbolic from all angles that I can't help but assume that whatever happens will be somewhere "in the middle" of all the rhetoric everyone's spouting from everywhere. I also have a very, "The world's gonna do what the world's gonna do, the best I can do is find my path through and flow with it," attitude about, well... most things. Maybe that helps? Maybe I'm talking out of my ass rn? I'm unsure! :)
- tolerance 23d ago
  No, I think that you're on to something and I wish you kept the original version of this part of your comment (yes I caught your edit and have it on my clipboard still!) because it touched on what I think about the whole "existential" bit of my own comment a bit more direct (but I think your edit expresses your attitude more sophisticatedly). Few people have anything that comes anywhere near any sort of philosophical foundation that they can rely on to weather their anxieties. If anything they only strengthen their sensibility to express—and compound—their worries.
- n4r9 23d ago
  I would be the same way if either: I didn't have dependents and heavy responsibilities, or: I had enough in savings to last a few years without income. I'm fascinated to see where software engineering is going to go, but I can't be comfortable about a threat to my ability to pay my mortgage and give my family a decent life.
grebc 23d ago
There’s absolutely nothing existential about a program that guesses the next word based on the last.
- tptacek 23d ago
  There is if you're a software developer!
  - the_great_talke 23d ago
    [flagged]
    - tolerance 23d ago
      For what it's worth...I launched tptacek's Markdown viewer, mdv, like yesterday.
- arjie 23d ago
  Truly such a first-order Markov chain would not be a threat but it turns out that they have built a program that guesses the next word based on the last few hundred thousand and it turns out that it works pretty well for writing software.
  - grebc 23d ago
    Keep diving down the chain brother, I’m sure you’ll find the singularity down there somewhere.
- ricketycricket 23d ago
  There’s absolutely nothing existential about a tiny powder that just combusts very quickly.
- thephyber 20d ago
  What is the current unemployment rate of Computer Science new grads?

tptacek 23d ago

The observation here is basically a corollary to the idea that people experience loss outcomes differently than gain outcomes. It's not complicated or fuzzy.

lazyasciiart 23d ago

It is flat out not a nice feeling to experience uncertainty about things like "can I pay for someone to look after my child so I can go to work?" and "will I have food to eat this weekend?". For some people, "will AI mean my job goes away next year?" leads directly to those concrete uncertainties, and they understand that, and that is why they don't enjoy the uncertainty they are currently feeling. I'm guessing that for you, those first two concerns have not come up?

jjulius 23d ago
Sure! Uncertainty is a spectrum, and there are certainly moments where it's not a nice feeling. I'm a father, and I'd be lying if I said I haven't had those feelings over the years. My (making it very clear here that one's mileage will obviously vary) approach? I don't know what's going to happen. Maybe I'll need to figure out childcare, maybe I won't. Maybe I'll have food to eat this weekend, maybe I won't. Maybe my job will go away next year, maybe it won't. Today, there's work, and I'll do that work as best I can. Today, there's evidence things are changing, and I can be aware of that. Today, I can do something prudent to make myself more resilient towards whatever may or may not happen. Tomorrow, if something happens, I can react accordingly. The mind wants certainty, but that's not always available, so I observe the "wanting". The best I can do is act based on what's in front of me, and sitting in the negative emotions around existential thoughts doesn't help me, nor my family (it's natural to have them, but I acknowledge them and let them pass by). The best I can do is to do. If things change, I change. Everything in nature/life is ephemeral, and I have done my best throughout my life to set myself up to be as adaptable as possible. Edit: To reduce this and get a bit Tao-ish, you don't need to know the exact shape of the river downstream as long as you're capable of steering when you get there.
- jancsika 23d ago
  > I don't know what's going to happen. Maybe I'll need to figure out childcare, maybe I won't. Maybe I'll have food to eat this weekend, maybe I won't. Maybe my job will go away next year, maybe it won't. Today, there's work, and I'll do that work as best I can. Today, there's evidence things are changing, and I can be aware of that. Today, I can do something prudent to make myself more resilient towards whatever may or may not happen. Tomorrow, if something happens, I can react accordingly. I take it you've never worked on realtime software. :) For most Americans with kids, if they don't figure out childcare they will miss deadlines. By missing deadlines they risk systemic failures: failure to make enough income to eat, keep their job, pay for healthcare, etc. It's easy to get Tao-ish about meeting deadlines when your buffer is above 100k.

63stack 23d ago

I'm pretty sure I could post "standing in the fire is painful and bad for your health" and there would at least be one person in the comments saying "I actually like standing in the fire".

jjulius 23d ago
Of course you would! I'm sure you'd see some firefighters or arsonists who would respond in such a manner. It's a very natural thing for some people to find a positive of some kind in things that many people find to be a negative.