9 ms·

It’s happening not just in Spain but across most of Europe, the USA, and East Asia. But lots of Europe and the USA have immigration to offset the population dec

by ronnier 24d ago

It’s happening not just in Spain but across most of Europe, the USA, and East Asia. But lots of Europe and the USA have immigration to offset the population decline. China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, are in dramatic population declines. Even India has stared to level off and expected to decline.

xyzelement 24d ago
Do you think the causes are the same across the regions?
- ronnier 24d ago
  Yes.
- jdw64 24d ago
  I think it's the same issue—wealth inequality. I believe this single issue can explain all of modern society's problems
  - lurk2 24d ago
    > wealth inequality. I believe this single issue can explain all of modern society's problems If anything the trend is the other way; countries that are significantly more economically egalitarian tend to have lower fertility rates. Here is a map of wealth inequality based on the Gini coefficient: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient Here is another showing total fertility rate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fer...
    - jdw64 24d ago
      I consider this a typical case of statisticians massaging the data. In fact, I believe the Gini coefficient itself is flawed modeling. Even statisticians don't really use it much these days, right? The Gini index on Wikipedia actually reflects consumption inequality. Also, high-fertility countries fundamentally have low contraception usage, low women's rights, and short periods of education. This is because labor is crucial in typical agrarian to light-industry economies. Conversely, low-fertility countries are characterized by extended education and delayed job stability. The reason is simple: work that generates high added value requires a significant amount of time spent on education. Generally, the OECD doesn't view the decline in fertility rates in developed countries as being driven by just a single variable either. Rather, there is a clear established relationship: higher housing costs correspond to a lower TFR (Total Fertility Rate) [1]. Classes exempt from these housing expenses—namely, individuals whose parents hold substantial real estate and assets—clearly have more children. Actually, this kind of research has been conducted extensively in East Asian countries like Korea and Japan, yielding very similar conclusions. [1] https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/society-at-a-glance-2024_918d8db3-en/full-report/fertility_748a5055.html https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/society-at-a-glance-202...
      - lurk2 24d ago
        > Rather, there is a clear established relationship: higher housing costs correspond to a lower TFR (Total Fertility Rate) [1]. Classes exempt from these housing expenses—namely, individuals whose parents hold substantial real estate and assets—clearly have more children. This report is 122 pages. A cursory search did not turn up anything to support either of your claims. What page of the report are you drawing this conclusion from?
        jdw64 24d ago
        > Fertility The total fertility rate (TFR) indicates the average number of children born per woman over a lifetime given current age‑specific fertility rates, assuming no female mortality during reproductive years. The population is replaced at a total fertility rate of about 2.1 children per woman. >Increasing housing costs affect fertility 33pages It’s clearly something that’s also in the table of contents.
    - jdw64 24d ago
      Let's consider programming, which represents an entry into a high value-added industry. To monetize programming, you fundamentally need to offer something more valuable than existing open-source software, or target a niche that open-source fails to address. However, this industry has now matured, and countless talented young individuals in the US have already contributed heavily to the open-source ecosystem. As a result, it is exceedingly difficult for developers in non-English speaking countries to sell programs that are inferior to free open-source alternatives. This is exacerbated by the very nature of software, which can be instantly and perfectly replicated. (Physical capital, on the other hand, is much easier for the establishment to control through protectionism. For instance, to foster the growth of Hyundai Motors, my country, South Korea, restricted American car imports, effectively forcing citizens to drive lower-quality domestic cars. That kind of national sacrifice was required.) Consequently, citizens of non-English speaking countries face a double burden: the time required to master English, added to the time needed to learn programming and accumulate foundational experience. By the time they build this experience and reach a stable level of professional competency, they are typically in their early 30s. This inherently forces a delay in marriage and family formation.
  - grumbelbart2 24d ago
    I find that unlikely, as it happens in countries with somewhat balanced wealth as well (and countries with the highest fertility rates have the highest wealth imbalance).
    - jdw64 24d ago
      [dead]
  - avadodin 24d ago
    The poorest immigrant lives like a king of old —let alone the childless jobless Spaniard he works for. Elon earning five billion credits every second has nothing to do with it.
    - jdw64 24d ago
      I generally don't think highly of people who make this argument. It relies on the simplistic framing of the "end of absolute poverty." In fact, this is the exact same rhetoric used by CCP apologists. While it is true that the modern poor enjoy better consumption, this argument completely ignores the economic concepts of positional goods and relative deprivation. Consider the biological imperative of finding a mate. The competitive factors for securing a partner are now broadcast and scaled across the entire society. The core of what kings of old enjoyed wasn't "air conditioning" or "refrigerators." Kings owned territory (real estate), wielded power, and monopolized the infrastructural capital that allowed them to pass down an overwhelming survival advantage to their lineage. Does a modern immigrant live like a king just because they use an iPhone? The modern poor merely consume cheap manufactured goods; they have been completely stripped of the physical foundation required to form a family (housing) and the control over their generational reproduction. The idea that Elon Musk amassing wealth has nothing to do with the working class is laughable. When wealth concentrates at the very top, that capital inevitably flows into supply-constrained, zero-sum assets—namely, real estate in prime locations and elite educational opportunities. Why do you think the cost of living in Silicon Valley is so absurdly high? The capital accumulated by billionaires like Musk and other asset holders astronomically pumps up (inflates) the prices of these "positional goods." Human family formation is not determined by comparing oneself to a 16th-century serf. It is strictly determined by one's "relative status" within their contemporary community. No matter how much absolute caloric intake increases, if you cannot secure the asset advantage required to raise a child to a "middle-class standard" within your current community, a rational human being will simply give up on reproduction.
      - avadodin 24d ago
        You indirectly call my argument Socialist and you are not entirely wrong since I read many texts from marxists.org as a teenager. It is still an odd accusation given that it is you defending the innocent victims of systemic oppression here.
  - xyzelement 24d ago
    Why do you think this? Spain has a lower fertility rate than the US and most of western Europe. Does it have greater wealth inequality?
    - jdw64 24d ago
      ??The statistics speak for themselves. In Spain, the top 1% holds 21% of the total wealth, 30% of the low-income demographic are the working poor, and 45% are irregular workers. Isn't the US in a similar situation? Regardless of other arguments, when you consider the OECD statistics demonstrating the impact of housing costs on fertility rates, I firmly believe that wealth inequality is indeed the root cause. [1] https://bristoluniversitypressdigital.com/view/journals/jpsj/aop/article-10.1332-17598273Y2026D000000064/article-10.1332-17598273Y2026D000000064.xml?rskey=40BObz&result=25#3 https://bristoluniversitypressdigital.com/view/journals/jpsj...
bpodgursky 24d ago
To degrees, but Spain's fertility rate is appalling even by modern western standards. ~1.1 vs ~1.6 in the US. It's a huge difference and closer to the East Asia collapses than to the US.
- munksbeer 24d ago
  One thing to look for in the EU is free movement of people. Young people can and do migrate to regions that pay them more. It would be interesting to look at Spanish youth migration to see if the younger workers (i.e. those more likely to have children) have moved elsewhere. That would create a further dent on the stats.
  - tuesdaynight 24d ago
    Isn't Spain one of the desired places for young people in Europe? I always saw people going to Spain, Germany or Switzerland for bigger salaries (e.g., people emigranting from Portugal)
    - import 24d ago
      Overall life quality is better in Spain, but not the salary at all.
    - ricardobayes 23d ago
      Nuh-uh. Sadly tens of thousands (official figures around 70-80k) of young people emigrate from Spain each year.
subarctic 24d ago
Is the idea that population growth will continue indefinitely? Eventually you run into limits
- ronnier 24d ago
  It’s not an idea. Just an observation of what’s happening with populations around the world, there’s lots of data on it.
  - defrost 24d ago
    I believe (perhaps incorrectly) that the GP was asking should population just keep increasing .. many people have been looking to slow population growth for some time and would see it finally starting to slow and perhaps peak and then fall in 2050 as a good outcome.

by ronnier 24d ago

xyzelement 24d ago

Do you think the causes are the same across the regions?

ronnier 24d ago
Yes.
jdw64 24d ago
I think it's the same issue—wealth inequality. I believe this single issue can explain all of modern society's problems
- lurk2 24d ago
  > wealth inequality. I believe this single issue can explain all of modern society's problems If anything the trend is the other way; countries that are significantly more economically egalitarian tend to have lower fertility rates. Here is a map of wealth inequality based on the Gini coefficient: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient Here is another showing total fertility rate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fer...
  - jdw64 24d ago
    I consider this a typical case of statisticians massaging the data. In fact, I believe the Gini coefficient itself is flawed modeling. Even statisticians don't really use it much these days, right? The Gini index on Wikipedia actually reflects consumption inequality. Also, high-fertility countries fundamentally have low contraception usage, low women's rights, and short periods of education. This is because labor is crucial in typical agrarian to light-industry economies. Conversely, low-fertility countries are characterized by extended education and delayed job stability. The reason is simple: work that generates high added value requires a significant amount of time spent on education. Generally, the OECD doesn't view the decline in fertility rates in developed countries as being driven by just a single variable either. Rather, there is a clear established relationship: higher housing costs correspond to a lower TFR (Total Fertility Rate) [1]. Classes exempt from these housing expenses—namely, individuals whose parents hold substantial real estate and assets—clearly have more children. Actually, this kind of research has been conducted extensively in East Asian countries like Korea and Japan, yielding very similar conclusions. [1] https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/society-at-a-glance-2024_918d8db3-en/full-report/fertility_748a5055.html https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/society-at-a-glance-202...
    - lurk2 24d ago
      > Rather, there is a clear established relationship: higher housing costs correspond to a lower TFR (Total Fertility Rate) [1]. Classes exempt from these housing expenses—namely, individuals whose parents hold substantial real estate and assets—clearly have more children. This report is 122 pages. A cursory search did not turn up anything to support either of your claims. What page of the report are you drawing this conclusion from?
      - jdw64 24d ago
        > Fertility The total fertility rate (TFR) indicates the average number of children born per woman over a lifetime given current age‑specific fertility rates, assuming no female mortality during reproductive years. The population is replaced at a total fertility rate of about 2.1 children per woman. >Increasing housing costs affect fertility 33pages It’s clearly something that’s also in the table of contents.
  - jdw64 24d ago
    Let's consider programming, which represents an entry into a high value-added industry. To monetize programming, you fundamentally need to offer something more valuable than existing open-source software, or target a niche that open-source fails to address. However, this industry has now matured, and countless talented young individuals in the US have already contributed heavily to the open-source ecosystem. As a result, it is exceedingly difficult for developers in non-English speaking countries to sell programs that are inferior to free open-source alternatives. This is exacerbated by the very nature of software, which can be instantly and perfectly replicated. (Physical capital, on the other hand, is much easier for the establishment to control through protectionism. For instance, to foster the growth of Hyundai Motors, my country, South Korea, restricted American car imports, effectively forcing citizens to drive lower-quality domestic cars. That kind of national sacrifice was required.) Consequently, citizens of non-English speaking countries face a double burden: the time required to master English, added to the time needed to learn programming and accumulate foundational experience. By the time they build this experience and reach a stable level of professional competency, they are typically in their early 30s. This inherently forces a delay in marriage and family formation.
- grumbelbart2 24d ago
  I find that unlikely, as it happens in countries with somewhat balanced wealth as well (and countries with the highest fertility rates have the highest wealth imbalance).
  - jdw64 24d ago
    [dead]
- avadodin 24d ago
  The poorest immigrant lives like a king of old —let alone the childless jobless Spaniard he works for. Elon earning five billion credits every second has nothing to do with it.
  - jdw64 24d ago
    I generally don't think highly of people who make this argument. It relies on the simplistic framing of the "end of absolute poverty." In fact, this is the exact same rhetoric used by CCP apologists. While it is true that the modern poor enjoy better consumption, this argument completely ignores the economic concepts of positional goods and relative deprivation. Consider the biological imperative of finding a mate. The competitive factors for securing a partner are now broadcast and scaled across the entire society. The core of what kings of old enjoyed wasn't "air conditioning" or "refrigerators." Kings owned territory (real estate), wielded power, and monopolized the infrastructural capital that allowed them to pass down an overwhelming survival advantage to their lineage. Does a modern immigrant live like a king just because they use an iPhone? The modern poor merely consume cheap manufactured goods; they have been completely stripped of the physical foundation required to form a family (housing) and the control over their generational reproduction. The idea that Elon Musk amassing wealth has nothing to do with the working class is laughable. When wealth concentrates at the very top, that capital inevitably flows into supply-constrained, zero-sum assets—namely, real estate in prime locations and elite educational opportunities. Why do you think the cost of living in Silicon Valley is so absurdly high? The capital accumulated by billionaires like Musk and other asset holders astronomically pumps up (inflates) the prices of these "positional goods." Human family formation is not determined by comparing oneself to a 16th-century serf. It is strictly determined by one's "relative status" within their contemporary community. No matter how much absolute caloric intake increases, if you cannot secure the asset advantage required to raise a child to a "middle-class standard" within your current community, a rational human being will simply give up on reproduction.
    - avadodin 24d ago
      You indirectly call my argument Socialist and you are not entirely wrong since I read many texts from marxists.org as a teenager. It is still an odd accusation given that it is you defending the innocent victims of systemic oppression here.
- xyzelement 24d ago
  Why do you think this? Spain has a lower fertility rate than the US and most of western Europe. Does it have greater wealth inequality?
  - jdw64 24d ago
    ??The statistics speak for themselves. In Spain, the top 1% holds 21% of the total wealth, 30% of the low-income demographic are the working poor, and 45% are irregular workers. Isn't the US in a similar situation? Regardless of other arguments, when you consider the OECD statistics demonstrating the impact of housing costs on fertility rates, I firmly believe that wealth inequality is indeed the root cause. [1] https://bristoluniversitypressdigital.com/view/journals/jpsj/aop/article-10.1332-17598273Y2026D000000064/article-10.1332-17598273Y2026D000000064.xml?rskey=40BObz&result=25#3 https://bristoluniversitypressdigital.com/view/journals/jpsj...

bpodgursky 24d ago

To degrees, but Spain's fertility rate is appalling even by modern western standards. ~1.1 vs ~1.6 in the US. It's a huge difference and closer to the East Asia collapses than to the US.

munksbeer 24d ago
One thing to look for in the EU is free movement of people. Young people can and do migrate to regions that pay them more. It would be interesting to look at Spanish youth migration to see if the younger workers (i.e. those more likely to have children) have moved elsewhere. That would create a further dent on the stats.
- tuesdaynight 24d ago
  Isn't Spain one of the desired places for young people in Europe? I always saw people going to Spain, Germany or Switzerland for bigger salaries (e.g., people emigranting from Portugal)
  - import 24d ago
    Overall life quality is better in Spain, but not the salary at all.
  - ricardobayes 23d ago
    Nuh-uh. Sadly tens of thousands (official figures around 70-80k) of young people emigrate from Spain each year.

subarctic 24d ago

Is the idea that population growth will continue indefinitely? Eventually you run into limits

ronnier 24d ago
It’s not an idea. Just an observation of what’s happening with populations around the world, there’s lots of data on it.
- defrost 24d ago
  I believe (perhaps incorrectly) that the GP was asking should population just keep increasing .. many people have been looking to slow population growth for some time and would see it finally starting to slow and perhaps peak and then fall in 2050 as a good outcome.