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It started with a solar boom, many small home scale solar roofs popping up everywhere. Australia has a free trade agreement with much of the world, including Ch
by AnotherGoodName 1mo ago
It started with a solar boom, many small home scale solar roofs popping up everywhere. Australia has a free trade agreement with much of the world, including China, and solar panels have literally dropped to 1/50th of the price they were in 1990 ($10/W to $0.2/W today). A shout out to the work that was done to establish dynamic grid pricing too.
Anyway that caused power prices to reliably go negative during the day as the solar boom led to too much energy being produced. So everyone started buying batteries (you can even get live feed in/out pricing as a consumer). In fact the government even today will pay you a $3000 subsidy to go install a battery. This is in a country where people can buy cheap batteries with no tariffs (free trade's amazing, seriously!). So everyone who could started doing it. For those in apartments etc. that couldn't easily install solar and batteries they won too since the entire power grid is now half the price.
Another consequence of all this, aside from the cheap power prices during a datacenter boom and Hormuz blockade is that fossil fuel usage is plummeting. Particularly gas https://ieefa.org/resources/slump-eastern-australia-gas-demand-shows-no-signs-easing https://ieefa.org/resources/slump-eastern-australia-gas-dema... . No need for a gas peak power plant when the grid is packed with batteries. Which is helpful since one of the main issues with the current blockade is a lack of gas globally.
- pnw 1mo agoIf you read the article, most of the decline in gas consumption in Australia is from changes in industrial usage. Residential demand is only down by 6% and part of that is likely due to the effective ban on gas in new residential construction which started in 2023 in Victoria. Prior to 2023 residential gas usage was increasing.
- testing22321 1mo agoAustralia never had much residential gas usage. Mr he very vast majority of residential homes don’t even have gas. No need for a furnace.
- dalyons 1mo agoPretty much every house in Victoria had gas, and gas furnaces, winter is cold enough
- testing22321 1mo agoI grew up in Victoria in a town of 20,000. Not a single house has gas.
- thrixton 1mo agoA lot of regional towns don't have mains gas so had to rely on deliveries. Living in outer Melbourne, I've always had gas, same with my friends and neighbours, and have always had gas hot water, stove top and heating, it's been the main heat source all my life, going away now with new builds not allowing gas connections, never mind if we have another massive electricity outage like 2022 when we were lucky to have gas for cooking and hot water, good luck charging batteries off solar in winter in a blackout if you're lucky enough to have proper blackout protection.
- stubish 1mo agoI live in a Victorian town of similar size. Houses have mains gas even when they don't have sewage, and it has been this way at least 30 years. I'm guessing the mains gas didn't get to your town. I've visited houses further afield who use bottled gas, and the gas delivery truck is a not uncommon site. But I imagine usage has plummeted and more people getting themselves disconnected to avoid the connection fees, with solar visible on roughly half the roofs.
- Symbiote 1mo agoIt would be useful to know if the industrial use is factories replacing their use with other sources (e.g. I have read that food manufacture is switching to electricity in Denmark, although it can be held up waiting for a grid connection if there's a data centre ahead of it). Or, did they improve their efficiency. Or, have they closed.
- hinkley 1mo agoOr outsourced their pollution to a foreign supplier.
- hdgvhicv 1mo agoCarbon taxes collapse as they don’t account for imports correctly.
- ericd 1mo agoThere is a solution for this, called a CBAM, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. One just went into force across the EU. It should appeal to US politicians, because it advantages the relatively clean US manufacturing base.
- AnotherGoodName 1mo agoIt has a whole section on the impact of power policy though and 15% of power mix to 7% for gas is significant. Coals fall is notable too.
- 0xWTF 1mo agoA 50% price decline doesn't imply there's 50% less demand for petroleum. If 6% less demand is all the margin consumers need to get their supply, then price can drop quickly. It's all in the margins.
- password4321 1mo agoWhat is the best way to learn more about this, are there any examples? This seems a bit counterintuitive to me.
- Waterluvian 1mo agoNot fully sure this is that, but it reminds me of something an American friend explained about their business under the Trump regime (as a rant about how laypeople were deeply under-reacting to the tourism decline): If it takes 100 tourists to pay his bills, taxes, staffing, and other expenses for the day, the next 5 tourists represent the profit. A tourism decline of 10% doesn’t mean 10% less profit, it means the catastrophic inviability of the whole business as it’s currently structured.
- sarchertech 1mo agoThat assumes he has a fixed profit per person. In reality most business can do things like cut hours for staff, postpone upgrades or long term maintenance, cut amenities, raise prices etc… If most businesses were structured in a way that a small decline in customers immediately puts them out of business, any minor economic downturn would be an unrecoverable positive feedback loop for the economy. I’m not saying a 10% drop won’t put a lot people out of business, but it’s not as much of an existential crisis for the economy as a whole as that story makes it seem.
- lazide 1mo agoUh, why do you think the Fed injects funds the way it does?
- outside2344 1mo agoSo energy demand was increasing? Perhaps electric cars?
- skissane 1mo ago> Residential demand is only down by 6% and part of that is likely due to the effective ban on gas in new residential construction which started in 2023 in Victoria. Prior to 2023 residential gas usage was increasing. There's a lot of people who would get gas if only it were available. My house (in NSW), the gas main ends two streets away, they won't connect me unless I paid them some insane amount of money ($100K or whatever) to extend it to us. My father (different part of NSW), his neighbour had gas, but the gas main stopped outside his neighbours house, and it would have cost him thousands to get it extended so he could connect; then his neighbour on the other side paid those thousands, and they extended the gas main right past his front door, and then he could get connected for $500. Anyway, I think the measured demand isn't always the same as the real demand. Also, there's still a decent chance the Victorian government loses the state election this November–although with Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan, it is less of a sure thing than it was–and the Liberals have already said they will wind back the new gas connection ban.
- stubish 1mo agoWith gas getting more and more expensive here in Victoria, and electricity prices plummeting and already free if you get a decent sized battery, the gas connection ban seems mostly pointless. Nobody will pay $300/year for the connection (+installation) so they can have the privilege of paying for their heating and cooking, and even without a battery you are still looking at 3-4 times the cost with gas heating vs. electric heating with a COP of 3-5. It may become legal, but nothing would change unless they also subsidize the gas providers to lay pipes and keep the existing ones working, because it just wouldn't be profitable to them otherwise. Energy retailers (resellers) already don't want the business, with a number of them electricity only and the rest just doing it as an incentive to attract customers to their electricity offers.
- skissane 1mo agoA lot of people still prefer gas stoves for cooking Yes you can get bottled LPG gas, but it is a pain – you worry about running out, you have to call up and get them to deliver it. With piped gas you just set up a direct debit for the bill and never think about it ever again. Also, some people prefer gas heaters because it is a different kind of heat. My father replaced his wood combustion heater with a gas one, even though he already had reverse cycle air-conditioning. Maybe just using the air conditioner would have been cheaper (he already has rooftop solar–I don't think he has a battery, but could easily put one in), but it wasn't what he wanted.
- nonfamous 1mo agoThere appears to be some language confusion in the replies. FYI in Australia “gas” refers to natural gas (used in domestic cooking and some power stations), not gasoline for cars (which is called “petrol” here).
- rickydroll 1mo agohttps://www.klgates.com/thought-leadership/Natural-Gas-Bans-From-New-York-to-Washington-Courts-Shift-the-Landscape-on-Legality-of-State-and-Local-Gas-Bans-4-7-2025 https://www.klgates.com/thought-leadership/Natural-Gas-Bans-... It's funny how when you cut off someone's revenue, they get all sorts of cranky, even if it's for a social good.
- linksnapzz 1mo agofree trade's amazing, seriously! Time was, mercantilist countries would use foreign colonies for resource extraction; and sell the goods manufactured with these resources back to them. It was great for everyone!
- bborud 1mo ago...and then the "colonies" figured out how to weaponize it and turn the balance in their favor. Or, not quite: the workers are being exploited just like they were during the colonial period. But at least now their rulers have power over our rulers that they didn't have before. So they get to be happy about that as they make novelty items out of toxic plastic for Temu.
- Retric 1mo agoModern China is a vastly better place to live than China of 60+ years ago. Many countries are nicer places to live, but 1+ Billion people are simply better off making the “exploitation” narrative ridiculous.
- nico_h 1mo agoPorque no los dos? Given the number of billionaires in China, it can both be true that workers are exploited, meaning they could earning more for less hours, and that the living conditions are better on average and possibly medianely than the local minima of 1966.
- Retric 1mo ago1960 was way worse than 1966. My point was you can’t reasonably look at thousands of years of horror suddenly ending and then blame the solution for not being perfect.
- soperj 1mo agoHow about before it was partitioned into colonies of various European powers? Population of China 60 years ago was half what it is now (700 Million). Anyway, the answer is both. They were being exploited 60+ years ago, and they're still being exploited now, regardless of if they can take the train away from the factory that they work at to visit their relatives over the holidays.
- vablings 1mo agoI have made this argument several times that capitalism literally solves the issue of solar panels if the market allows arbitrage and true dynamic pricing. Good to see now a working example that capitalism is an excellent system of rewarding those who solve inefficiencies in markets
- wffurr 1mo agoThere were significant state subsidies and regulation changes to encourage home battery installation. That's a lot less "free trade" driven than the GP post indicates. Is that still capitalism being an excellent system?
- vablings 1mo agoSubsidy in capitalism is not contrary to capitalism and free market, quite the opposite infact. Often capitalism has the tendency to stay locked in on a current sub-optimal path due to risk profiles of various transitions and regulations, the point of government in this case is to allow that state transition to have a more appealing risk profile to allow furtherance of X goal. There are several thousands of examples of everyday technology that has been driven into your hands directly as of a result of government spending and investment that has markedly made your life more livable and enjoyable
- UltraSane 1mo agoa $3,000 battery subsidy is the opposite of free trade.
- Sabinus 1mo agoNo it isn't. The 3k goes to the consumer to buy the battery from their preferred/cheapest global supplier, not to Australian manufacturing.
- arcticfox 1mo agoThis only makes sense way downstream of massive subsidies, not the least of which is China determining at a federal level that they wanted to produce an obscene amount of solar panels. And now it's complicated because the ideal move would just be to say "thank you" and buy all the cheap panels and batteries, but that hollows out your own industry.
- leonidasrup 1mo agoAustralia produced 42% of it's electricity from domestic coal in 2025. https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/australia#what-sources-does-australia-get-its-electricity-from https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/australia#what-sou...
- AnotherGoodName 1mo agoWhich is incredible since it was 70% in fyi 2013/2013 https://ieefa.org/resources/slump-eastern-australia-gas-demand-shows-no-signs-easing https://ieefa.org/resources/slump-eastern-australia-gas-dema... (See section on power mix which mention coal at the bottom).
- stanislavb 1mo agoAnother effect - although wholesale prices are falling for the energy itself - energy providers increased their daily "power grid use" fees. As a result, having electricity at home is still more expensive compared to before.
- stubish 1mo agoWe have inflation. Everything is going up, except electricity. Interestingly, one of the retailers offering free power already in Victoria gives a $1 kick pack if you use no power during the (rather long) peak period. So users with large enough batteries are paying just $0.30 a day connection fee and nothing else. Limits coming in will I think restrict free power to 25kWh/day, so smaller or energy efficient households.
- brikym 1mo agoAustralia actually advanced the tech a lot in the 80s with PERC coming from UNSW but as a nation did nothing with it. One member on the research team transferred the knowledge to China where he got state backing to commercialize it.
- ColdStream 1mo agoIt has hit so cheap that here in Victoria that as of 1st October there will be 3 hours of free electricity in the middle of the day. Capped at 24KW a day but that is still impressive. As such, we can load up the washer/dryer and just schedule them for an 11am start.
- stubish 1mo agoIt has been available from two retailers for several months already. Pricing is such it doesn't make economic sense unless you have a battery due to higher peak and shoulder prices (So get a battery! Even with loan interest payments it pays for itself)
- grebc 1mo agoElectricity is not half the price.
- wolvoleo 1mo agoFree Trade is amazing when it works. But it doesn't in many cases. Even with those solar panels: China has put many western manufacturers out of business by selling them under cost price with government support. It's cool for the consumer but it's an artificial trick that actually reduces the free market viability. They did this with a reason. Either to raise prices later or to create a dependency. Even if you don't pay directly you pay for it in other ways like geopolitical power.
- neeiicirjdj 1mo agoIf only western governments invested in saving the planet, then the Chinese would have had some competition. Their monopoly doesn’t seem like a Chinese governance problem and nor does it seem like an issue with the free market. The panels are sold above cost price.. unlike a lot of AI tokens
- pennomi 1mo agoVirtually free, clean, decentralized energy is a far greater advantage than any of those disadvantages. It’s a strategic failure for the US to pass up on China’s solar overproduction and subsidization. As the saying goes, don’t interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake.
- stubish 1mo agoSelling under our cost price. Not selling under their cost price. China can destroy western manufactures even while making a profit.
- robocat 1mo agoOh no - those bastards started selling something cheaper than we can. The irony of China beating us at capitalism
- jiehong 1mo agoSolar panels and batteries aren’t something you use up daily and have to buy constantly. So, if by creating a dependency you mean they hope you buy again in 20 years, sure, but it’s not petrol style dependency, and those batteries and panels can be recycled locally instead of sent back to China.
- aaron695 1mo ago[dead]
- duxup 1mo agoIf they pay you 3k to install a battery, what’s the cost of the battery overall?
- AnotherGoodName 1mo agoAUD$6k (just under USD$4k) after rebate installed with inverter for the 10kwh Fox-ESS listed here https://www.solarchoice.net.au/solar-batteries/is-home-battery-storage-worth-it/ https://www.solarchoice.net.au/solar-batteries/is-home-batte... Fwiw the reason the ~$6k price point is common in that list is because the rebate is 30% up to $3k including install+inverter. So that's the price point everyone's trying to aim for. You could get smaller systems but may as well maximize that rebate. Australia's average daily household usage is 15kwh. So 10kwh works well in a country that doesn't need significant night time heating, just daytime (when powers cheap) air conditioning.