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It's probably not a bad idea. Steel is one of the things that an industrialized country needs to produce to protect its own sovereignty. Letting it shut down an
by Deukhoofd 2mo ago
It's probably not a bad idea. Steel is one of the things that an industrialized country needs to produce to protect its own sovereignty. Letting it shut down and just hope you'll always be able to import enough steel from other countries is a bad long-term strategy. You'd be left unable to fend for yourself.
- 0x3f 2mo agoYou can make this same argument about a great number of things. Why is steel any more critical than food or vaccines or the like? Indeed we got caught short of vaccines recently, and had some nontrivial consideration of running a military op against NATO member over it.
- Deukhoofd 2mo agoFood tends to be a lot easier to produce, and many countries do often subsidize their food production, as well as have mercantilistic policies to ensure food production is kept locally. Vaccines is a more interesting one, and would be something that might indeed be of interest to a nation. On the other hand I don't think many governments are that concerned about another pandemic, sometimes the discourse regarding it very much sounds like "what are the odds it'll happen again"
- 0x3f 2mo agoI don't really care for farm subsidies either, but even ignoring that: it's quite a different level of intervention than compulsory purchase. Same with the vaccines. We didn't respond to that crisis by nationalizing AstraZeneca. My rhetorical point is just that steel gets special treatment probably because it's politically expedient. There are large, politically-relevant parts of the country that are still emotionally tied to the idea that we're an industrial nation. People under the age of 30 still go on about Thatcher and the miners. There's no real shortage of steel around the world that I know of. We could just stockpile it instead, for example. And in the hypothetical tail-risk scenario this is all supposed to insure against... how do we even get the raw materials for making steel anyway?
- ben_w 2mo ago> There's no real shortage of steel around the world that I know of. We could just stockpile it instead, for example. And in the hypothetical tail-risk scenario this is all supposed to insure against... how do we even get the raw materials for making steel anyway? The more I learn about steel, the more I realise it's not one single thing but a whole collection of different families of things, each with different tradeoffs. e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-strength_low-alloy_steel#Classifications https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-strength_low-alloy_steel#...
- vablings 2mo agoOne big thing about steel is actually traceability, certain industries require very specific steels. One example that always comes to mind is Sheffield Forgemaster's who are one of the few places in the world that can make absolutely gargantuan sized castings for nuclear reactors and marine equipment
- XorNot 2mo agoVaccines aren't something you need urgently in a crisis. A wartime effort has to keep supplies moving daily, or the front collapses. Whereas the need for vaccines is heavily deferred - your population is already vaccinated in peacetime, and you are unlikely to need to make a novel vaccine over the course of a war, nor vaccinate new population during one either: that large vaccinated population providing herd immunity gives you a lot of runway for children with less access.
- pjc50 2mo ago> Vaccines aren't something you need urgently in a crisis .. what were you doing in 2020? > you are unlikely to need to make a novel vaccine over the course of a war The lab leak people are probably wrong, but in the present era we're a lot closer to "hook AI up to a CRISPR machine and generate a biological weapon" than we have ever been. Everyone seems to assume that we might get in a war that we recognize and can fight with the tools of WW2, ships and tanks, rather than a war we don't recognize fought with weapons we don't understand and have no counter for. Or, more likely, simply get bought out at the top. Why fire a missile when you can buy a political party for a mere £5m?
- XorNot 2mo ago> .. what were you doing in 2020? Waiting several years for widespread vaccine availability, and practicing good hygiene and social distancing. Viruses aren't so good at seizing and holding territory.
- ben_w 2mo agoAs I recall, the economic damage of the pandemic was ~ "it's worth spending ten billion dollars to make the vaccinations arrive one day sooner": https://www.newsweek.com/operation-warp-speed-what-deal-opinion-1520816 https://www.newsweek.com/operation-warp-speed-what-deal-opin... (And that was just the cost to the USA, not the world as a whole).
- XorNot 2mo ago
- ben_w 2mo ago> On the other hand I don't think many governments are that concerned about another pandemic, sometimes the discourse regarding it very much sounds like "what are the odds it'll happen again" Gambler's fallacy will keep striking until we do better, won't it.
- matt727 2mo agoThe food example, is the exact reason for large farming subsidies in the European Union. These were implemented as a founding initiative, due to the experience of food shortages during the second world war. A great number of things could be considered critical. Due to the nature of when access could be cut off, the main thing countries likely worry about being able to access, is things humans need to stay alive, and things needed to wage war.
- 0x3f 2mo agoFarming subsidies are one of the most criticized parts of the EU. My comment isn't in support of it. But even so, subsidy is quite different from compulsory purchase. The question is: why is steel special. Not in a no-action-vs-some-action way, but why so aggressive? Ironically I think it's the same for both steel and farmers: they provide votes.
- XorNot 2mo agoBecause like, every basic war machine is made from it? Like how is this a question? There's been two world wars and access to or stockpiling of steel has been a critical strategic factor in both. Most consumable military assets are made from steel, for example and it underpins most machine tools and factory components as well.
- lazide 2mo agoAlso all non-flying forms of transport.
- handelaar 2mo agoFor lots of reasons but if you're the UK and you're honest with yourself and you are only allowed to pick exactly one reason that steel is absolutely critical? Royal Navy.
- t0mpr1c3 2mo agoEzcept that the shipyards closed in the 1970s.
- 1970-01-01 2mo agoSteel comes from iron, which you can't grow. It's more critical than food, which you can grow. Same for vaccines.
- 0x3f 2mo ago> Steel comes from iron, which you can't grow Right, and where is the iron coming from in the scenario where we can't import steel?
- 1970-01-01 2mo agoAs it is top-critical, you're recycling it, opening new mines, and taking it by force.
- 0x3f 2mo agoDon't most of these contingencies apply to steel in the first place?
- 1970-01-01 2mo agoNope. The entire point here is facing the decision on which of these contingencies will apply.
- remus 2mo agoObviously there are a lot of important things you need to keep a country running, but steel is a key input a in a huge number of very important sectors (infrastructure, military, automotive etc.) so having some ability to produce your own steel seems a sensible hedge.
- cucumber3732842 2mo ago>Why is steel any more critical than food or vaccines or the like? Countries that import large shares of their food and medical supply chains are constantly trying to develop domestic capacity.
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- jarym 2mo agoYep, same can be said of manufacturing capability in general. If you don't have a manufacturing base then inevitably when there's a war you may find yourself unable to build defense components.
- t0mpr1c3 2mo agoSupply chains are so diversified that self sufficiency is only feasible for countries the size of US and China. Russia has been forced to cannibalize jet planes because sanctions have starved it of spare parts. Even the US Navy gets its ships built in South Korea now. Britain's remaining industries are very niche. With a small domestic market, you can't get economies of scale. You have to specialize.
- dukeyukey 2mo agoThe UK is still the world's 5th largest economy. It's a large domestic market, just not a hyperscale one.
- ksec 2mo agoExcept out of the top 5, UK has the lowest manufacturing basis while 80%+ of GDP are service based.
- warumdarum 2mo ago27th?
- wqaatwt 2mo ago[dead]
- t0bia_s 2mo agoThats what comrades tried many times in history, allways with deadly costs.
- Incipient 2mo ago
- georgeecollins 2mo agoLet's imagine a hypothetical symmetrical war between two modern countries. One can disable the other's satellites and maintain their own fleet. The other can't get access to any third parties' satellites. You aren't going to send your steel navy out when one side can see you from space and you can't, almost regardless of the numbers. Your big army of steel tanks is useless against a bunch of drones directed by distribute satellites.
- wongarsu 2mo agoIn a defensive war, a steel navy sitting in spitting distance of your shores and an army of steel tanks will still do a lot to keep the enemy at bay. And you can swap the tank turrets for Gatling guns on some of your newly produced tanks to help against drones You wouldn't be able to win the war in your scenario, but you could still do a lot to make sure the other side isn't winning either.
- georgeecollins 2mo agoIf machine guns were useful against drones Russia would be winning in Ukraine. Check out Russia's Black Sea fleet to learn the fate of your navy sitting by your shores.
- 8note 2mo agorussia is currently holding just about all the land it wants in Ukraine They might not be taking Kiev for a hundred years, but the fortress belt is well within reach in the next couple of years If they were to negotiate an end tomorrow, Russia certainly wouldnt be giving up territory in ukraine. i dont see how thats not winning
- afavour 2mo agoIf you’re looking at win vs loss you also need to look at what you got in return for what you gave. A ton of casualties and further international isolation aren’t really worth the middling gains Russia could negotiate for peace today. Which is probably one of the reasons they still haven’t, sunk cost fallacy and all that.
- ekjhgkejhgk 2mo agoI was told by economists that the invisible hand would solve this!
- lazide 2mo agoSometimes a pimp slap is what is needed, but no one ever signs up for one voluntarily.
- caycep 2mo agowould it be situational re economies, though? i.e. if you have a lot of financial resources and can buy 1000 ships cheaply for the cost of propping up your steel industry to build 100 ships, should you buy 1000 ships (or the steel needed to build them quickly) to instead?
- idiotsecant 2mo agoDrone and satellites don't hold territory.
- morkalork 2mo agoSteel on its own is inert and useless, you need to retain the entire downstream manufacturing ecosystem that consumes it. Like cars for example, producing steel but letting all your vehicle manufacturers sell off to foreign owners just so you can import BYDs doesn't do you any good.
- tonyedgecombe 2mo agoThe UK car industry had been doing quite well until Brexit.
- neilwilson 2mo agoHaving said that if you have no source of iron ore and no self sufficient energy production you’re stuffed anyway. The UK ran out of both a fair while ago
- lazide 2mo agoNotably, things like that is why they had their colonies.
- t0mpr1c3 2mo agoBritain didn't run out of coal, it's just in deep seams that are uneconomic to extract compared to strip-mined lignite. Newcastle is proverbially built on top of the stuff. Although renewable energy sources and electric arc furnaces that consume scrap are preferred these days.
- warumdarum 2mo agoIts also not price competitive as producedin the uk. No high energy industry will survive in europe
- warumdarum 2mo agoA political movement that destabilizes the living situation for large parts of the population feeding them to the populists to archieve a lofty abstract goal, thats almost poetic.