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by SamTinnerholm 4mo ago
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- empath75 4mo agoThere's probably also some hedging going on across accounts that look like directional bets.
- postflopclarity 4mo agothis comment was clearly written by AI. please don't do that.
- Retr0id 4mo agoNot sure why you were downvoted/flagged, because you're right. It is also quite an insightful comment worthy of discussion so I'm a little conflicted.
- skybrian 4mo agoI don’t see why it’s AI, but even if it is, it’s better than most human comments so the complaint should be downvoted.
- Retr0id 4mo agoTake a look at the user's history, it's more obvious in context. It has a lot of claude-specific tells which are noticeable if you've spent time working with claude. AI-generated comments are against the HN guidelines https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html#generated https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html#generated
- skybrian 4mo agoMaybe the guidelines should be changed? Something about: don’t complain about comments just because they’re AI.
- postflopclarity 4mo agoI'm not complaining "just" because it's AI. I'm complaining because it's AI, and also slop. > resolves into "cross-venue infrastructure" — which is also a more durable edge than within-venue alpha anybody who actually trades knows that on these markets, "cross venue infrastructure" (aka vibe coding some exchange api integrations) is much less important / durable than actual alpha.
- Retr0id 4mo agoSlop aside, do you think it's reasonable to assume a decent fraction of those making consistent profits are arbitrage bots?
- postflopclarity 4mo agoarbitrage is a rather overloaded word that people use for all kinds of strategies but yes, I predict most of the most profitable and consistent accounts are not actually attempting to forecast the outcome of these markets from first principles
- skybrian 4mo agoThat sounds plausible. Not a trader so I wouldn't know. Saying at least a little about what's actually wrong with it seems more useful than just saying it's slop, which gives me very little info over just a downvote.
- postflopclarity 4mo agoit's pretty easy to write basic trading api connectivity. the hard part is knowing what trades to send even if we are very charitable and assume the comment refers only to like high-engineering-effort infra for trying to be super competitive on latency, that's still like the opposite of a durable edge, since everybody is looking at it. there's very little "hidden" knowledge and it's mostly a matter of elbow grease and careful engineering.
- 4mo ago
- nh23423fefe 4mo agophrenology
- postflopclarity 4mo agoif you're not able to tell that OP's comment was AI slop, then you probably don't have much insight to contribute to the conversation either.
- vcf 4mo agonot AI slop, simply a copy paste if the abstract of the paper. journals in our field limit the allowed number of words, so the style can feel « unnatural » even when human-written
- Retr0id 4mo agoThe abstract doesn't mention arbitrage at all
- b40d-48b2-979e 4mo agoForget to swap accounts?
- l23k4 4mo agoSamTinnerholm started to consistently use emdash in their comments starting 11 days ago, before that none of their comments used emdash. LLMs like emdash very much, humans don't use it very much these days.
- postflopclarity 4mo agoit's only "better than human comments" if you have no idea what profitable trading looks like. it's a very-very thin mildly convincing veneer over what is fundamentally slop.
- pjc50 4mo agoIt looks completely fine and plausible to me. Which is worrying.
- aaron695 4mo ago[dead]
- SkyPuncher 4mo agoYes, there's an em-dash, but it reads fine to me.
- postflopclarity 4mo agoAI slop is often good at "reading fine" but the actual content is incoherent.
- deleted 4mo ago[deleted]
- vcf 4mo agoWe have a grad student working on matching markets across venues. Not a trivial task at scale, but we hope to look at that eventually.
- meric_ 4mo agoI'd be very cautious how matching works. For some markets like sports it's trivial, but many politics or economics markets have minute rule differences that dramatically change what the actual market is betting on. Many markets have identical titles but are actually totally different markets.
- locallost 4mo agoI don't think that's surprising because the alternative would be that some people are able to predict the future. Whatever strategy one might figure out that works is long term destined to fail, as other people start using them. The only real way to make money there is by providing liquidity since it's a zero sum game. For the stock market this is not true because it's not zero sum, it grows over time.
- vcf 4mo agoYes, but the alternative (that some people are very good at forecasting) is also plausible. It's also useful to have a good prediction model and timely data sources when providing liquidity. We also find that some of the "biggest losers" also provide liquidity; they just aren't as good at it.
- locallost 4mo agoI don't know. Buffett had a good example of, if you organized a national coin flipping contest in the US, you would have people that won 25+ coin tosses in a row. Are these people good at calling coin tosses or is it just chance? You cannot reliably and long term predict if Bitcoin will go up or down within 5 minutes, or something similar. You can cheat maybe somehow, but that's not within the rules of the game.
- vcf 4mo agoThat's true, but you can invest in your infrastructure and data sources to be faster than most traders, which allows you to provide liquidity with a smaller spread (and snipe the slower traders that try to provide liquidity)
- Retr0id 4mo ago"predicting the future" and "correct analysis of all available information" often aren't all that different.
- glitchc 4mo ago
- WalterBright 4mo agoI couldn't make heads or tails of that prose.
- postflopclarity 4mo agobecause it's AI slop
- Karrot_Kream 4mo agoI don't know why cross venue arbitrage would be unskilled? There's a lot of it for the taking and I, and others, do so.
- dang 4mo agoCould you please not post generated comments to HN? It's not allowed here. See https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html#generated https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html#generated and https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47340079 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47340079. We ban accounts that do this and I don't want to ban you, so please write everything that you post to HN by hand. Of course, it's impossible to know for sure what was LLM processed or not, but we're getting complaints about some of your posts and, upon inspection, the complaints seem justified.