vcf

6 ms·

1.
by vcf 2mo ago
Prohibitively expensive is all relative. Pre-Fable, I was getting fine on the 5x plan for 1-2 concurrent long-running tasks plus interactive work (I do a lot of coding for work, but it is not my full work day). I don’t think a cache miss ev
2.
by vcf 2mo ago
It launches these tasks in the background. It became really good at it a couple of months ago, now it sets monitors on timer (not something I instructed, so I assumed it’s part of the system prompt for this kind of tasks) and then just wait
3.
by vcf 2mo ago
I used to have some hooks for local notification, but lately I find that claude is pretty good at notifying through the app with remote control (but definitely not perfect)
4.
by vcf 2mo ago
I run a lot of data science-type analyses that can take up to hours at a time to run, so Claude is « monitoring » tasks most of the time. I have it on remote-control so I get notified when a task is done or need clarification, but most impo
5.
by vcf 2mo ago
I almost never went back to read the history, but now I often have Claude go through the history when I wonder how we got to a certain point. It can point me to the relevant issues as well. Squashing is fine, up to a point.
6.
by vcf 2mo ago
Similar for me, I don’t want to babysit agents . I’m sticking with Python for the libraries (data science ecosystem), but I find that imposing ty and a few reasonable ruff rules (imposed with pre-commit so the agent can fix things automatic
7.
by vcf 2mo ago
I agree that the style is somewhat generic, but for things like new release announcements, I find that the common structure allows me to skim through much faster. I value that and am happy with that tradeoff.
8.
by vcf 3mo ago
Me too, I rarely hit limits anymore on the $100 Max, except for the brief period with Fable
9.
by vcf 3mo ago
At my university, students with verified disabilities are allowed to use a university-provided laptop (properly locked-down, with allowed tools such as screen readers). But these are special cases. Computers for everyone would be costly and
10.
by vcf 4mo ago
It's simpler when looking at prediction markets because of bounded payoffs and the zero-sum nature, so these are pure trading gains. In equity markets, you have both the trading and investment components to account for. Market makers l
11.
by vcf 4mo ago
Yes. It's not only that, as we also find very successful traders who take directional bets on elections and sports. But among the most successful traders, a large fraction are acting as market makers. Note that acting like one is not e
12.
by vcf 4mo ago
Thanks! No, we haven't looked at the capital "locked" in these markets (which is important considering there is no margin trading, at least not yet). Most markets have a short horizon, but some have very long ones. It gets ve
13.
by vcf 4mo ago
That's true, but you can invest in your infrastructure and data sources to be faster than most traders, which allows you to provide liquidity with a smaller spread (and snipe the slower traders that try to provide liquidity)
14.
by vcf 4mo ago
not AI slop, simply a copy paste if the abstract of the paper. journals in our field limit the allowed number of words, so the style can feel « unnatural » even when human-written
15.
by vcf 4mo ago
Yes, when you submit for publication. In our field, you rarely see one for pre-prints, unless you have one to disclose.
16.
by vcf 4mo ago
Yes, but the alternative (that some people are very good at forecasting) is also plausible. It's also useful to have a good prediction model and timely data sources when providing liquidity. We also find that some of the "biggest
17.
by vcf 4mo ago
Yes, power laws are everywhere. The exact shape of each distribution varies, however, and little is known empirically about the distribution of trading profits in financial markets.
18.
by vcf 4mo ago
We don't know the exact benchmark, but your insight is correct. We provide a simulation similar to what you have in mind towards the end of the paper, but you can generate almost any distribution you want by fine-tuning a simulation...
19.
by vcf 4mo ago
Because it's not required and not common practice in our field at this stage. But none of us (I'm one of the authors) is affiliated with or has a financial interest in any prediction market platform.
20.
by vcf 4mo ago
Not meant to sound like AI, but most academic journals limit abstracts to 100 words, so they rarely feel natural... I agree: insiders are hard to study because they are finite and short-lived. We're pretty confident there are insiders
21.
by vcf 4mo ago
We have a grad student working on matching markets across venues. Not a trivial task at scale, but we hope to look at that eventually.
22.
Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket(papers.ssrn.com)
173 points by vcf 4mo ago|155 comments
23.
by vcf 4mo ago
We study trading gains and losses on Polymarket, the largest prediction market. Using 588 million trades ($67 billion in volume), we show that the gains are highly concentrated: the top 1% of users capture 76.5% of profits. Successful trad
24.
by vcf 4mo ago
Interesting read. Regarding the relationship between volume and accuracy, there need not be one in limit-order-book markets like Kalshi and Polymarkets. In theory, as long as quotes are accurate and adjust quickly to new information, there
25.
by vcf 5mo ago
Thanks! I will look into these bugs, it’s a PIA because you can only debug those while there is a live game… Same with auto-refresh, it should work but for some reason it’s inconsistent.
26.
by vcf 5mo ago
I took the lazy way out and use a dependency for that. I’ll look into it and see if I can either push a fix upstream or reimplement myself.
27.
by vcf 5mo ago
One repo per project. It makes it easier when I want to share or make public. I have 100+ repos in my account and I don’t find that cumbersome.
28.
by vcf 5mo ago
Thanks, fixed!
29.
by vcf 5mo ago
Not player stats, only team stats. I'll have to see if player-level stats are available in the API.
30.
by vcf 5mo ago
I had the same thought, went ahead when I found an existing Python module to access the API.

More ›