10 ms·

All my new code will be closed-source from now on

93 points by mvelbaum 8mo ago

Havoc 8mo ago
>If you want to use my libraries (1M+ downloads/month) in the future, you have to pay. Problem with this is demand like that can vanish once you paygate it.
- ffsm8 8mo ago
  Even more relevant is the rationale behind it. Unless your closed source code will be usable by llms more effectively then what's available today in oss, it's likely going to die off within the next decade or two. There will continue to be a need for software developers for the foreseeable future, but the market will continue to trend toward more and more LLM generated code - no matter how this is seen by us developers.
elbci 8mo ago
Luddite: We need to destroy these mechanical looms that are taking all our jobs leaving us homeless and hungry Marx: Did it occurred to you to destroy the system that make robots doing your job a bad thing?
- diego_moita 8mo ago
  And both of them failed. Both the machines and "the system" are alive and well. Did it occurred to you that you're using machines (computers, internet, HN) created by the system to complain about the system? The bitter truth is that we don't have any good alternative for both the machines and "the system". For Luddites' and Marxists' chagrin, manual weaving was indeed a crappy job and "the system" brought what they'd call "advance in the means of production".
  - elbci 8mo ago
    The marxists got the first man in space while urbanizing (a decimated by WWII) population of serfs without favelas and slums. If that is a "fail", what would you call the 'wonders' brought by the last 30 yrs without them?
  - vidarh 8mo ago
    Whether you think it possible or not, this take misunderstands Marxism at a fundamental level. For Marxists, automation is a good thing - in fact it is a core precondition of socialism. Marx spent half the first chapter of the Communist Manifesto fanboying over capitalism for the productivity increases brought by capitalism. So why do you think it was to the chagrin of Marxists? Marx spent decades cheering on the advancement of industrialisation, and specifically argued (in The German Ideology) that socialism would be impossible without these advances in productive forces.
    - deleted 8mo ago
      [deleted]
    - diego_moita 8mo ago
      Fair enough: the Chinese Marxists seem to love their robots, a lot. But, also, they handle all that automation to the capitalists. Because capitalists are simply much better at doing it. So it seems that, even when it succeeds, socialism can't really get rid of "the system", after all.
      - peepee1982 8mo ago
        You are conflating Marxism with China, which is just a state-capitalist powerhouse using the exact same model of enclosure and rent-seeking we are arguing against. China doesn't "hand over" automation because capitalists are better at it; the state simply socializes the risk and R&D before letting private proxies handle the commercialization. Citing a state-backed monopoly system to prove "the market" is the only way to build tech is total nonsense.
        diego_moita 8mo ago
        China is Marxist, as much as South Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, USSR, Khmer Rouge, Laos, etc. This is objective history. These are the "objective conditions", as Marxists say. These are facts and nothing else exists besides that. Your idealistic, romantic version of Marxism only exists in your head. In 140 years of history, Marxism only generated the Marxist states I listed above.
  - peepee1982 8mo ago
    It is honestly depressing how many people have swallowed the capitalist pill so completely. Most people can't even fathom a world where cooperation actually works better than a cutthroat rat race. It leads to these total room-temperature takes that the system is the only reason we have the internet or Hacker News. It is exhausting watching people parrot the same old clichés because they are too lazy to actually crack a history book. The truth is that foundational tech was almost never market-driven. The architecture of the computer, the internet, and the Web were all products of the public commons. They were created by people motivated by discovery and utility rather than exit liquidity. Capital did not invent these things. It just showed up late, threw a fence around them, and started charging rent on human ingenuity it had nothing to do with. Same goes for the Luddites. They were not anti-machine, they were just anti-starvation. They did not hate the loom. They hated that the loom was being used as a legal weapon to gut their labor rights while the owners hoarded 100 percent of the gains. Using a computer to call this out is not hypocrisy. It is using a tool that was stolen from the human commons to argue for its return. If you think we owe our progress to the current ownership model, you are not paying attention. You have just been programmed by the marketing.
    - sph 8mo ago
      Hell, the whole idea of open-source on which the entire modern tech world is based upon, which the Internet and Hacker News itself thrived upon, is completely antithetical to capitalism. The cambrian explosion of tech exists because someone decided to give intellectual property away for free. I agree with you. My hope and dream is that society is able to move on not by regressing to Luddism, but by restoring technology's position to service the people, as a tool for making life better, rather than to mould, measure and control humanity. Remember the sad meme that the brightest minds of our generations are thinking about how to make people click on ads. It is tragic.
moltar 8mo ago
This is a foreign position to me. I open sourced my code not to make money but because I saw that others can benefit from it. I never made money from open source. If I did my mental model would be that these are charitable donations, not an income stream I can rely on.
- vidarh 8mo ago
  I've "made money" from my relatively limited open source contributions primarily by being moved straight past coding stages when interviewing a few times. That's enough payoff for me. Other than that it's mostly a "why not?" There are some - very limited - pieces of code I keep private relating to my consulting business, but I've seen more downside in keeping code private over the years than not. E.g. lots of code I've written that are locked up in companies that no longer use it that I wish I could still use. The proportion of code I have that would create a moat that makes it worth holding the code back is miniscule.
- arnvald 8mo ago
  That's cool, and I'm happy for you that you are in a position that allows you to get income from other sources, so that you can write OS code in your spare time. Not everyone can or wants to go this way, though, and we got a number of fantastic tools and libraries thanks to people who tried and succeeded in making money from open source. Some folks live off donations, some are paid by their employers to write OS, and some added extra features that allowed them to both offer their tools for free and to monetize them at the same time. It's sad that the last path starts to disappear, at least for some tools. In the end it probably will result in fewer OS libraries, because some number of authors will have to either find another income stream, or abandon their projects.
- jampekka 8mo ago
  The post mentions this: > Some OSS will keep going - wealthy devs doing it for fun or education. That's not a system, that's charity. I'm all for non-monetary motives, but the reality is that most people have to work for a living, leaving quite limited time/energy for volunteering. The scale of OSS that we have today would not (perhaps sadly) be possible without OSS development paying the bills.
mellosouls 8mo ago
The entire argument is framed through an anti-open-source view which sees participation as entirely motivated by money. It's an unfortunate presentation that makes it more difficult to sympathise with - and ultimately it may not matter; either somebody else will fill the gap or the LLMs he resents will help coders create their products without the libraries he seems to think are valueless without a set financial cost.
- sallveburrpi 8mo ago
  > which sees participation as entirely motivated by money. I think it’s rather that people need to eat. He admits that some wealthy devs will continue to work for free (do charity basically) but for those who want to make a living from OSS it will be harder and harder. But yea as you said ultimately it probably won’t matter that much.
  - ptero 8mo ago
    > I think it’s rather that people need to eat. They do and always did. But open source was originally not about that, but about building something cool and letting others build on that. And, crucially, about GPL preventing large companies from extinguishing your work "because copyright". I remember Bill Gates calling GPL a spreading virus that tech world has to fight. Sometime along this path monetizing open source became a thing. Now it is apparently becoming less lucrative. OK. That's the nature of changes, but IMO it does not kill open source. It might eventually make it even better, as commercial open source has become too widespread and money corrupts. My 2c.
    - jowea 8mo ago
      I think free software was more about that about that. Open source always was about getting financially motivated companies onboard.
      - ptero 8mo ago
        I am not absolutely sure, but I do not think so. Being old(ish) I recall in the early 90s Stallman advocating for (and mostly winning the argument in the tech circles at the time) open source as the primary tool for freedom to build things. With financial motivation possible, but completely orthogonal to the development of the open source software. And how his argument (he was also a strong proponent of freedom to fork and improve in ways that the original developer did not do/want/agree with) was used against him in the early Emacs-XEmacs wars. When he tried to advocate that developers should support his Emacs version because he was the one who built Emacs (with tech retort being that his version sucks, he does not want to let others change it, so the community will build the features they want in XEmacs, thank you very much). I think viable financial models of the last 15-20 years morphed open source into something different (in a kind of embrace-extend way). But I think that "extinguish" is very hard with OSS, so with financial models becoming less viable, open source might morph back somewhat. Or not; we shall see.
deleted 8mo ago
[deleted]
rhplus 8mo ago
> My prediction: a new marketplace emerges, built for agents… Libraries become APIs with meters. So… SaaS and how every cloud provider already monetizes open-source code?
- vidarh 8mo ago
  It also seems like a weird prediction when agents make reproducing the API from a spec easier and easier. If an API is accessible, you can point your coding agent at it to refine a spec and local test suite. You'd expect libraries-as-API (libraries that's previously be offered in code form but where people try to limit code access by offering it only as an API, as opposed to SaaS's where the API provided access to a larger system, gatekept data, or running infrastructure) to get incredibly hard to monetize too, unless they're extremely complex.
Ekaros 8mo ago
Monetizing open source never made sense for me. Mostly because I operate from selfish viewpoint. Why would I pay for something that is provided for free? It is starting to seem like I was right. You have to fund it from selling a product. Or be one of the few that are valuable enough to be paid for running it. But those are exceedingly rare in total population and don't make scalable business model.
- ossa-ma 8mo ago
  Like he said a lot of OSS works on tiered features, most is free, premium at a premium. But the main issue is that doesn't work anymore if LLMs have been trained entirely on the free and can generate the premium with ease.
  - CubsFan1060 8mo ago
    Part of me says that that could be handled with licenses, though for that to work the code probably no longer qualifies as open source either. Also, I'd guess, the sort of people who are comfortable with asking an LLM to build the premium features are, uh, morally flexible enough to not care about licenses in the first place.
  - sallveburrpi 8mo ago
    > generate the premium with ease I don’t think this will be possible for many open core projects. Often the premium features are the more complex and difficult ones. If you could generate those you don’t need the project at all anymore you can just generate the whole thing. Of course that is the wet dream of VCs and would make programmers completely obsolete but I don’t think it’s realistic (at least not anytime soon)
- CubsFan1060 8mo ago
  It's almost always locking some features behind subscription. Obviously, SSO is the best choice for most deployments. Enterprises (who will probably pay the most) will require SSO. Open Source is the "free taste". Everyone knows, uses, and likes Grafana. When your company is looking for something, you'll recommend it because you're familiar with it. Your company will want things like SCIM or similar, and pay them for it. It's harder for products that are trying to sell to smaller companies/individuals, but it still applies.
hagbard_c 8mo ago
Yes, well, none of your code will be used by me from now on so we're even. So long and thanks for all the fish.
ramon156 8mo ago
What a way to boast about yourself
OutOfHere 8mo ago
[flagged]
theturtletalks 8mo ago
I feel the same way as this person, but I’m leaning even more into open-source. I’m building an open-source SaaS for every vertical and even though it’s open-source, we offer cloud hosting, yet most users deploy on their servers. Our cloud hosting is just one source of monetization, our main monetization is a decentralized marketplace around these SaaS. My point is, monetizing open-source is really hard. Tailwind was giving bricks away for free while selling you a house. Given enough time, people used those bricks to build houses and gave them away for free.
YetAnotherNick 8mo ago
Tailwind makes more money than ever through donation, but that isn't a business. It's the tailwind proprietary themes that wasn't doing well. It's just bad to say tailwind is losing because of AI.
- barnabee 8mo ago
  Tailwind being funded is evidence to me that there’s still far too much money in making software compared to the rest of society, not too little as the author would like us to think.
  - YetAnotherNick 8mo ago
    What does it even mean. It's not funded, companies donate there is a huge difference.
deleted 8mo ago
[deleted]
conartist6 8mo ago
I'm writing OSS code with the intent to replace git. I know my position is very different, but to me openness is not a critical vulnerability when facing big companies but my secret weapon. For me the best outcome is taking over all the market currently held by git and GitHub, and the worst outcome would be that Microsoft somehow pulls an embrace-extend-extinguish on us. But my goal, and I think I've been successful here, is to slam the door in the face of anyone who would be able to easily improve on my work and therefore would be able to undercut my value proposition with theirs. We want to be the first people offering a strongly differentiated service by building a platform that does not in any way sit on top of the MS platform, so that nothing we do is actually a direct benefit to them anyway and we actually get consumers excited about change! This is the same death grip that Microsoft currently has on OSS. They made their tools so ubiquitous that even their most vigorous competitors make things that just feel like knock-offs because the competitors can't afford not to build on top of the same open core as MS: git and LSP. If you can't beat them you have to join them, and so I know exactly what I need to do to win: tweak the economic incentives until joining me is preferable to competing with me, and then instead of charity we'll simply take GitHub's billions in revenue as our revenue.
- s1mplicissimus 8mo ago
  I agree githubs dominant position is an issue very much worth gnawing at. What's wrong with git though?
  - steve1977 8mo ago
    And how would OP differentiate from example Forgejo?
    - conartist6 8mo ago
      By being nothing at all like them. The best current analog for the kind of code forge we'd build is Unison's forge, e.g. here's a library hosted on it: https://share.unison-lang.org/@ceedubs/folds https://share.unison-lang.org/@ceedubs/folds Notice that lines and columns are completely absent in this UX! It's a forge for semantic trees of code rather than text files of code. I think they're only scratching the surface of what you can do when you shatter the line/col paradigm. Most importantly you have to use the Unison programming language to use the Unison code forge. I won't have this limitation at all. Anything you can parse into a standard syntax tree you'll be able to host on my semantic forge, and also I'll be able to put a fully-featured code editor right in the forge site so contributors can get started without ever even leaving their browser.
frackii 8mo ago
My OSS project wasn’t nearly as well used, but it also was making someone else money, and I also put a lot of time into it without getting paid. I never had the time or understanding to setup a business around it, so in the end I just got rid of everything. No more open source unless it’s purely for my own enjoyment. I’m VERY appreciative of free and open source projects and organizations that don’t try to make money. The FSF, GNU, Linux- I love these! I would love if the world just focused on these! I would use a Linux desktop and phone if they were in that Apple sweetspot (iOS 26 not included) of ease for techs and non-techs. What I’ve noticed about successful open-source projects is that they have: - a strong leader, who has dedicated their life to it, not as a secondary initiative, and who one day knows they must hand the reins to another - a willing team that continues to bring in “new meat” - a project that sells itself by filling a need that will remain for some time by many - no need or desire for money Those that end in failure involve: - a leader/team that sees it as part-time volunteer work, and they do it because it makes them feel good about themselves; they are giving back - the assumption that one day maybe they’ll get paid
KronisLV 8mo ago
> Look at Tailwind: 75 million downloads/month, more popular than ever, revenue down 80%, docs traffic down 40%, 75% of engineering team laid off. Someone submitted a PR to add LLM-optimized docs and Wathan had to decline - optimizing for agents accelerates his business's death. He's being asked to build the infrastructure for his own obsolescence. So what are the actual solutions, now that the cat is out of the bag? Much like in the post, you could make it source available and have a free license for non-profits and development, but ask money for commercial usage, or different feature sets (like iframe-resizer, which we recently bought for a project, saved a bunch of time, but the AI models still were trained on it and knew how to use it). Or provide support, like many FOSS DBs and OSes should, same for libraries, maybe to have PostgreSQL dethrone Oracle and the likes just a little bit more. Or maybe some ask-for-funding stuff defined at library level with the expectation that the AIs would present this information to whoever uses them. I don't particularly celebrate https://docs.npmjs.com/cli/v9/commands/npm-fund https://docs.npmjs.com/cli/v9/commands/npm-fund but I get why it's there - similarly we might get IDE plugins and CLI tools and such to present a summary of what libraries or projects were used/suggested in a task/chat session and how to give them money, much like how you'd get references to website sources when trying to ask AI to research something. > My prediction: a new marketplace emerges, built for agents. Want your agent to use Tailwind? Prisma? Pay per access. This probably already exists in the form of MCP solutions for up to date documentation for specific libraries and so on, to mitigate hallucinations. Either way, we need to start implementing actual solutions so we don't keep ending up with https://staltz.com/software-below-the-poverty-line.html https://staltz.com/software-below-the-poverty-line.html all the time. And not just some "human contract" approach of expecting that someone will go to your docs manually and see the banner that they can give you money for more bells and whistles or something. To me, that feels like wishful thinking. AI or not, people's work should be rewarded and that needs some sort of standardization - and I hold that view even in regards to answering feature requests on GitHub, like if someone demands something, they should immediately have the option to place money into an escrow for when/if a solution is presented to them (or get the money back if not). If they don't, you have no obligation to help them unless from the goodness of your own heart and the innate desire to do so. Similarly, if I use 10 libraries, I should be able to say "Okay I have 50 bucks, I want to donate to all of these projects by executing a single npm command and confirming a PayPal payment or something." Incidentally, that's also the first step towards building the Torment Nexus (capitalist incentives will find a way to turn this into a hellscape), but go figure.
theboywho 8mo ago
While the observations might be true, I’m not sure going closed source is going to help here. If optimizing docs for AI makes you less visible, guess what else makes you less visible : not even being accessible. Just because AI is "taking advantage" of projects being open source doesn’t mean the solution is direct closed source. Going with the most direct solution to a problem is an indication you might not have spent time thinking deeper about the problem
throwaway150 8mo ago
I don't mean to trivialize the OP's experience. This is definitely a very important matter and serious issue in the industry. So forgive me for raising a much smaller, side point. > I've contributed millions of lines of carefully written OSS code over the past decade I have never tracked my own output, but I would be surprised if I have written even a single million lines of code, let alone several. Out of curiosity, is this common? Have people here actually written millions of lines of code themselves? Even assuming two million lines over thirty years, that still averages to around 180 lines per day, every day. It is doable but it is a very high level of sustained output. I am not doubting the OP. Just noting that this represents an extraordinary amount of coding by any measure.
- Madmallard 8mo ago
  I've been coding for 20 years and I don't think come close personally. Some napkin math: 100-200 python scripts (maybe 250 lines on average) Work within 10 or so large repositories. (Probably no more than 5000 lines in any repo) (maybe 750 lines on average) 20 or so hobby project games largest being around 30,000 lines (maybe average around 6000?) 15 websites with back-ends (maybe average around 2000 lines) 50 or so school projects (maybe 100 lines on average?) Two work projects one a games website around 15,000 and the other a .Net application around 20,000 Looks like around 235,000
- Ekaros 8mo ago
  Also I find it interesting describing it carefully written. To me that most likely would indicate something that has been reviewed, rewritten and reconsidered multiple times. Thus bringing down the total number of lines. As there would be significant time spend on same lines. Or would anyone disagree that carefully written code takes more time and in the end probably results lot less lines produced in total?
- ZoneZealot 8mo ago
  It's almost like the kind of extra filler that an LLM adds because it doesn't understand the meaning behind the words...
- capitol_ 8mo ago
deadnetslop 8mo ago
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wewewedxfgdf 8mo ago
Tailwind is down because it solved the same problem that AI does - CSS is super complex, write only code and largely not memorable. AI is perfect for writing CSS because you can tell it your intent and it does it. There just is not the need for frameworks/libs to make it less complex.
- csomar 8mo ago
  I have just written an article about this (submitted by someone else: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46565409 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46565409) What you are saying is wrong and countered with hard data: LLMs produce and increase the use of tailwind not decrease it. Confirmed by the founder himself.
  - nairboon 8mo ago
    Where is the hard data?
  - deleted 8mo ago
    [deleted]
  - BoredPositron 8mo ago
    And you think LLMs can't produce tailwind components? Because that's the problem they are facing, not tailwind usage itself.
shevy-java 8mo ago
Bye Marc - please stay in the proprietary world too. Others will do the open source development from this point on.
- cindyllm 8mo ago
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janlucien 8mo ago
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ZoneZealot 8mo ago
It's an incredibly complex topic, and I do feel for people who are now seeing a massive disruption to the existing ways to monetise their own work (they should be able to live comfortably). It's quite ironic that they used an LLM to write or at least entirely re-format their post, when their topic is about the impact these systems have on the ongoing sustainability of the humans behind the work. I personally don't use LLMs and generative models, I find their output way too untrustworthy and their practice of mining the data of others unsettling. Not that anything on the internet can be inherently trusted anyway.
stego-tech 8mo ago
Frustratingly, while I sympathize with their very real plight, I also have to agree with OP’s ultimate decision. OSS was exploited by hyperscalers to build trillion-dollar industries atop of, but without ever suitably compensating, the creators of much of those tools for their work or sharing in the profit. Before AI, the community was already at a breaking point between private enterprise spouting “supply chain” bullshit at them to demand fixes and attention, or steamrolled small devs to prop up a big corp’s trademark or product, all the while never actually paying enough for the proper development and support of those products - look at NPM (leftpad and kik) as prime examples. Now you have these same big tech ghouls scraping small sites into oblivion with hostile bots, making token predictors that are deliberately engineered to never, ever direct someone to a primary source or site except as an absolute last resort (to keep folks “in app” for engagement metrics), and openly pitching AI coding agents as replacements for human coders forever. In that context, it’s no fucking wonder that the OSS community is becoming increasingly hostile to the very norms that have left most of them broke and increasingly destitute. Hell, for up-and-coming devs emerging from bootcamps, the mantra of “contribute to OSS” makes zero sense in a Capitalist marketplace that’s pivoting hard towards AI-as-human-replacement; as the OP points out, why bother training your own replacement? OSS won’t die, but this is a particularly painful chapter that emphasizes it cannot support itself through the (non-existent) generosity of Capital. Alternate funding schemes and organization models are needed to prepare and support it for the future, be they government grants, Academia sponsors, or outright Gov-funded Private or Public Corporations (e.g., BBC, Corporation for Public Broadcasting (RIP), etc). Updates to OSS licensing schemes barring use-cases or with more substantial teeth for commercial use are also needed, toeing the line between empowering users of general computing and extracting reasonable payments from businesses or enterprises.
ahmetomer 8mo ago
There's no complexity in understanding an OSS author wanting to make money out of their hard work. People forget that OSS is about providing something useful to the world for free because they choose to do so. And anyone who doesn't want to follow this, or chooses to transition to a new model, should be respected with their decision. Accusing them of "greed" is to be out of touch and out of taste. This is as much a personal matter as it is about the current and future state of OSS in general.
oliwarner 8mo ago
But I use open source software because I can see and alter what's running. When you do this in a community of other developers, even as a user, you get a lot of stuff for free. I write FOSS software because I want to use it. I know the economics require give and take. Yes, LLMs are all take. Yes, they bastardise the licenses and abuse the model. But they don't change why I want to use open source software. They don't change the fact that people need to keep writing it to keep receiving it. Long story short, I think a lot fewer people are going to use Marc's software. He might be okay with the commercial realities of this (it might be a runaway success) but I think as non-developers get more acquainted with LLMs, being able to ask a bot to change how your system works is going to be more popular, not less, even if it's not the model RMS wanted.
poisonborz 8mo ago
TLDR: author only sees OSS as a sort of marketing funnel for paid tiers and business fame
perrygeo 8mo ago
I've never thought of open source as something you can make money on directly. It's hard to see how it benefits an IC economically, besides getting some recognition and a sense of pride. Open source has always felt explicitly like a benefit for companies. - They get free code, buy vs build is irrelevant when you can just pip install. - Systems become largely homogenized, thus contributors are replaceable. - They get an established pool of workers who know the technology already, no training required. - They get free labor from contributors outside their organization maintaining their dependencies for them in perpetuity. It's a great deal for employers! Especially if they forbid their employees from contributing back! If you work out the game theory, there's literally no reason for a company to do anything but sit back and siphon the benefits for themselves. This doesn't really change with LLMs, it just makes the end game much more explicit. The goal was always to capture the intellectual output of open source contributors for private profit. Always. Now that it's actually happening, who's really shocked?
- flowerthoughts 8mo ago
  > when you can just pip install. To add: This is okay in early organizations. In larger organizations, the risk of malicious code entering your systems is much greater. So I think FOSS benefits small companies more than large companies, which seems good.
TrevorFSmith 8mo ago
The essence of free software is and always has been charity. Some people attempt to interface with capitalism via "open source" but that game is rigged to make previous winners continue to win so you missed the boat. It's a mistake to link coding to how you get food, shelter, safety, etc. Do it for fun or not at all.
burnt-resistor 8mo ago
This is pissing into the wind because in, the long run, AI will write the functionality it wanted to use instead because there are no magic or special libraries. Furthermore, it will eventually (over a long enough timescale) eat deeper down the stack by writing programming languages (with most incomprehensible to humans*), designing chips, designing systems, deploying code, planning datacenters, and designing products... this the manifestation of a gradual technological "singularity". * This is how billionaire techbros will finally push most humans out of tech. All they're doing now by putting up roadblocks is collectively punishing humans from competing with AI. On the other side of the token, don't give away things and expect payment. Give things away because it's cool, not as a primary survival strategy based on mythological expectations of gratuity. It comes across as bitter giver's remorse. And unprofessional poison spewed onto social media also wrecks their professional reputation and drives customers away.
pan69 8mo ago
What do we think the future is going to looks like? "I need a caching component in my stack. Oh, I just let AI create it from scratch, so AI can also run it, maintain it etc." or "I need a caching component in my stack. Oh, let me just grab an existing, well maintained and supported cache component and let AI write the glue logic to run it, maintain it etc." Personally I think it will be the second one. There definitely is a case for generating one off tools but I don't think AI will replace established, well written and maintained software (being it open-source or not). Not all software is equal. I can get 80% of my new SaaS to be generated by AI as it's mostly considered boilerplate and mostly the same as any other SaaS. It's the 20% that makes it unique OR something that AI can't touch like a special relationship with a supplier or a first to market position etc.
CamperBob2 8mo ago
Well, bye
nialv7 8mo ago
Millions of lines of code in a decade?! One million would be 400 loc every working day. And he said millions. And that's only counting code he open sourced. I don't believe it is possible to "carefully" write thousands of lines of code every single day.

93 points by mvelbaum 8mo ago

Havoc 8mo ago

>If you want to use my libraries (1M+ downloads/month) in the future, you have to pay. Problem with this is demand like that can vanish once you paygate it.

ffsm8 8mo ago
Even more relevant is the rationale behind it. Unless your closed source code will be usable by llms more effectively then what's available today in oss, it's likely going to die off within the next decade or two. There will continue to be a need for software developers for the foreseeable future, but the market will continue to trend toward more and more LLM generated code - no matter how this is seen by us developers.

elbci 8mo ago

Luddite: We need to destroy these mechanical looms that are taking all our jobs leaving us homeless and hungry Marx: Did it occurred to you to destroy the system that make robots doing your job a bad thing?

diego_moita 8mo ago
And both of them failed. Both the machines and "the system" are alive and well. Did it occurred to you that you're using machines (computers, internet, HN) created by the system to complain about the system? The bitter truth is that we don't have any good alternative for both the machines and "the system". For Luddites' and Marxists' chagrin, manual weaving was indeed a crappy job and "the system" brought what they'd call "advance in the means of production".
- elbci 8mo ago
  The marxists got the first man in space while urbanizing (a decimated by WWII) population of serfs without favelas and slums. If that is a "fail", what would you call the 'wonders' brought by the last 30 yrs without them?
- vidarh 8mo ago
  Whether you think it possible or not, this take misunderstands Marxism at a fundamental level. For Marxists, automation is a good thing - in fact it is a core precondition of socialism. Marx spent half the first chapter of the Communist Manifesto fanboying over capitalism for the productivity increases brought by capitalism. So why do you think it was to the chagrin of Marxists? Marx spent decades cheering on the advancement of industrialisation, and specifically argued (in The German Ideology) that socialism would be impossible without these advances in productive forces.
  - deleted 8mo ago
    [deleted]
  - diego_moita 8mo ago
    Fair enough: the Chinese Marxists seem to love their robots, a lot. But, also, they handle all that automation to the capitalists. Because capitalists are simply much better at doing it. So it seems that, even when it succeeds, socialism can't really get rid of "the system", after all.
    - peepee1982 8mo ago
      You are conflating Marxism with China, which is just a state-capitalist powerhouse using the exact same model of enclosure and rent-seeking we are arguing against. China doesn't "hand over" automation because capitalists are better at it; the state simply socializes the risk and R&D before letting private proxies handle the commercialization. Citing a state-backed monopoly system to prove "the market" is the only way to build tech is total nonsense.
      - diego_moita 8mo ago
        China is Marxist, as much as South Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, USSR, Khmer Rouge, Laos, etc. This is objective history. These are the "objective conditions", as Marxists say. These are facts and nothing else exists besides that. Your idealistic, romantic version of Marxism only exists in your head. In 140 years of history, Marxism only generated the Marxist states I listed above.
- peepee1982 8mo ago
  It is honestly depressing how many people have swallowed the capitalist pill so completely. Most people can't even fathom a world where cooperation actually works better than a cutthroat rat race. It leads to these total room-temperature takes that the system is the only reason we have the internet or Hacker News. It is exhausting watching people parrot the same old clichés because they are too lazy to actually crack a history book. The truth is that foundational tech was almost never market-driven. The architecture of the computer, the internet, and the Web were all products of the public commons. They were created by people motivated by discovery and utility rather than exit liquidity. Capital did not invent these things. It just showed up late, threw a fence around them, and started charging rent on human ingenuity it had nothing to do with. Same goes for the Luddites. They were not anti-machine, they were just anti-starvation. They did not hate the loom. They hated that the loom was being used as a legal weapon to gut their labor rights while the owners hoarded 100 percent of the gains. Using a computer to call this out is not hypocrisy. It is using a tool that was stolen from the human commons to argue for its return. If you think we owe our progress to the current ownership model, you are not paying attention. You have just been programmed by the marketing.
  - sph 8mo ago
    Hell, the whole idea of open-source on which the entire modern tech world is based upon, which the Internet and Hacker News itself thrived upon, is completely antithetical to capitalism. The cambrian explosion of tech exists because someone decided to give intellectual property away for free. I agree with you. My hope and dream is that society is able to move on not by regressing to Luddism, but by restoring technology's position to service the people, as a tool for making life better, rather than to mould, measure and control humanity. Remember the sad meme that the brightest minds of our generations are thinking about how to make people click on ads. It is tragic.

moltar 8mo ago

This is a foreign position to me. I open sourced my code not to make money but because I saw that others can benefit from it. I never made money from open source. If I did my mental model would be that these are charitable donations, not an income stream I can rely on.

vidarh 8mo ago
I've "made money" from my relatively limited open source contributions primarily by being moved straight past coding stages when interviewing a few times. That's enough payoff for me. Other than that it's mostly a "why not?" There are some - very limited - pieces of code I keep private relating to my consulting business, but I've seen more downside in keeping code private over the years than not. E.g. lots of code I've written that are locked up in companies that no longer use it that I wish I could still use. The proportion of code I have that would create a moat that makes it worth holding the code back is miniscule.
arnvald 8mo ago
That's cool, and I'm happy for you that you are in a position that allows you to get income from other sources, so that you can write OS code in your spare time. Not everyone can or wants to go this way, though, and we got a number of fantastic tools and libraries thanks to people who tried and succeeded in making money from open source. Some folks live off donations, some are paid by their employers to write OS, and some added extra features that allowed them to both offer their tools for free and to monetize them at the same time. It's sad that the last path starts to disappear, at least for some tools. In the end it probably will result in fewer OS libraries, because some number of authors will have to either find another income stream, or abandon their projects.
jampekka 8mo ago
The post mentions this: > Some OSS will keep going - wealthy devs doing it for fun or education. That's not a system, that's charity. I'm all for non-monetary motives, but the reality is that most people have to work for a living, leaving quite limited time/energy for volunteering. The scale of OSS that we have today would not (perhaps sadly) be possible without OSS development paying the bills.

mellosouls 8mo ago

The entire argument is framed through an anti-open-source view which sees participation as entirely motivated by money. It's an unfortunate presentation that makes it more difficult to sympathise with - and ultimately it may not matter; either somebody else will fill the gap or the LLMs he resents will help coders create their products without the libraries he seems to think are valueless without a set financial cost.

sallveburrpi 8mo ago
> which sees participation as entirely motivated by money. I think it’s rather that people need to eat. He admits that some wealthy devs will continue to work for free (do charity basically) but for those who want to make a living from OSS it will be harder and harder. But yea as you said ultimately it probably won’t matter that much.
- ptero 8mo ago
  > I think it’s rather that people need to eat. They do and always did. But open source was originally not about that, but about building something cool and letting others build on that. And, crucially, about GPL preventing large companies from extinguishing your work "because copyright". I remember Bill Gates calling GPL a spreading virus that tech world has to fight. Sometime along this path monetizing open source became a thing. Now it is apparently becoming less lucrative. OK. That's the nature of changes, but IMO it does not kill open source. It might eventually make it even better, as commercial open source has become too widespread and money corrupts. My 2c.
  - jowea 8mo ago
    I think free software was more about that about that. Open source always was about getting financially motivated companies onboard.
    - ptero 8mo ago
      I am not absolutely sure, but I do not think so. Being old(ish) I recall in the early 90s Stallman advocating for (and mostly winning the argument in the tech circles at the time) open source as the primary tool for freedom to build things. With financial motivation possible, but completely orthogonal to the development of the open source software. And how his argument (he was also a strong proponent of freedom to fork and improve in ways that the original developer did not do/want/agree with) was used against him in the early Emacs-XEmacs wars. When he tried to advocate that developers should support his Emacs version because he was the one who built Emacs (with tech retort being that his version sucks, he does not want to let others change it, so the community will build the features they want in XEmacs, thank you very much). I think viable financial models of the last 15-20 years morphed open source into something different (in a kind of embrace-extend way). But I think that "extinguish" is very hard with OSS, so with financial models becoming less viable, open source might morph back somewhat. Or not; we shall see.

deleted 8mo ago

[deleted]

rhplus 8mo ago

> My prediction: a new marketplace emerges, built for agents… Libraries become APIs with meters. So… SaaS and how every cloud provider already monetizes open-source code?

vidarh 8mo ago
It also seems like a weird prediction when agents make reproducing the API from a spec easier and easier. If an API is accessible, you can point your coding agent at it to refine a spec and local test suite. You'd expect libraries-as-API (libraries that's previously be offered in code form but where people try to limit code access by offering it only as an API, as opposed to SaaS's where the API provided access to a larger system, gatekept data, or running infrastructure) to get incredibly hard to monetize too, unless they're extremely complex.

Ekaros 8mo ago

Monetizing open source never made sense for me. Mostly because I operate from selfish viewpoint. Why would I pay for something that is provided for free? It is starting to seem like I was right. You have to fund it from selling a product. Or be one of the few that are valuable enough to be paid for running it. But those are exceedingly rare in total population and don't make scalable business model.

ossa-ma 8mo ago
Like he said a lot of OSS works on tiered features, most is free, premium at a premium. But the main issue is that doesn't work anymore if LLMs have been trained entirely on the free and can generate the premium with ease.
- CubsFan1060 8mo ago
  Part of me says that that could be handled with licenses, though for that to work the code probably no longer qualifies as open source either. Also, I'd guess, the sort of people who are comfortable with asking an LLM to build the premium features are, uh, morally flexible enough to not care about licenses in the first place.
- sallveburrpi 8mo ago
  > generate the premium with ease I don’t think this will be possible for many open core projects. Often the premium features are the more complex and difficult ones. If you could generate those you don’t need the project at all anymore you can just generate the whole thing. Of course that is the wet dream of VCs and would make programmers completely obsolete but I don’t think it’s realistic (at least not anytime soon)
CubsFan1060 8mo ago
It's almost always locking some features behind subscription. Obviously, SSO is the best choice for most deployments. Enterprises (who will probably pay the most) will require SSO. Open Source is the "free taste". Everyone knows, uses, and likes Grafana. When your company is looking for something, you'll recommend it because you're familiar with it. Your company will want things like SCIM or similar, and pay them for it. It's harder for products that are trying to sell to smaller companies/individuals, but it still applies.

hagbard_c 8mo ago

Yes, well, none of your code will be used by me from now on so we're even. So long and thanks for all the fish.

ramon156 8mo ago

What a way to boast about yourself

OutOfHere 8mo ago

[flagged]

theturtletalks 8mo ago

I feel the same way as this person, but I’m leaning even more into open-source. I’m building an open-source SaaS for every vertical and even though it’s open-source, we offer cloud hosting, yet most users deploy on their servers. Our cloud hosting is just one source of monetization, our main monetization is a decentralized marketplace around these SaaS. My point is, monetizing open-source is really hard. Tailwind was giving bricks away for free while selling you a house. Given enough time, people used those bricks to build houses and gave them away for free.

YetAnotherNick 8mo ago

Tailwind makes more money than ever through donation, but that isn't a business. It's the tailwind proprietary themes that wasn't doing well. It's just bad to say tailwind is losing because of AI.

barnabee 8mo ago
Tailwind being funded is evidence to me that there’s still far too much money in making software compared to the rest of society, not too little as the author would like us to think.
- YetAnotherNick 8mo ago
  What does it even mean. It's not funded, companies donate there is a huge difference.

deleted 8mo ago

[deleted]

conartist6 8mo ago

I'm writing OSS code with the intent to replace git. I know my position is very different, but to me openness is not a critical vulnerability when facing big companies but my secret weapon. For me the best outcome is taking over all the market currently held by git and GitHub, and the worst outcome would be that Microsoft somehow pulls an embrace-extend-extinguish on us. But my goal, and I think I've been successful here, is to slam the door in the face of anyone who would be able to easily improve on my work and therefore would be able to undercut my value proposition with theirs. We want to be the first people offering a strongly differentiated service by building a platform that does not in any way sit on top of the MS platform, so that nothing we do is actually a direct benefit to them anyway and we actually get consumers excited about change! This is the same death grip that Microsoft currently has on OSS. They made their tools so ubiquitous that even their most vigorous competitors make things that just feel like knock-offs because the competitors can't afford not to build on top of the same open core as MS: git and LSP. If you can't beat them you have to join them, and so I know exactly what I need to do to win: tweak the economic incentives until joining me is preferable to competing with me, and then instead of charity we'll simply take GitHub's billions in revenue as our revenue.

s1mplicissimus 8mo ago
I agree githubs dominant position is an issue very much worth gnawing at. What's wrong with git though?
- steve1977 8mo ago
  And how would OP differentiate from example Forgejo?
  - conartist6 8mo ago
    By being nothing at all like them. The best current analog for the kind of code forge we'd build is Unison's forge, e.g. here's a library hosted on it: https://share.unison-lang.org/@ceedubs/folds https://share.unison-lang.org/@ceedubs/folds Notice that lines and columns are completely absent in this UX! It's a forge for semantic trees of code rather than text files of code. I think they're only scratching the surface of what you can do when you shatter the line/col paradigm. Most importantly you have to use the Unison programming language to use the Unison code forge. I won't have this limitation at all. Anything you can parse into a standard syntax tree you'll be able to host on my semantic forge, and also I'll be able to put a fully-featured code editor right in the forge site so contributors can get started without ever even leaving their browser.

frackii 8mo ago

My OSS project wasn’t nearly as well used, but it also was making someone else money, and I also put a lot of time into it without getting paid. I never had the time or understanding to setup a business around it, so in the end I just got rid of everything. No more open source unless it’s purely for my own enjoyment. I’m VERY appreciative of free and open source projects and organizations that don’t try to make money. The FSF, GNU, Linux- I love these! I would love if the world just focused on these! I would use a Linux desktop and phone if they were in that Apple sweetspot (iOS 26 not included) of ease for techs and non-techs. What I’ve noticed about successful open-source projects is that they have: - a strong leader, who has dedicated their life to it, not as a secondary initiative, and who one day knows they must hand the reins to another - a willing team that continues to bring in “new meat” - a project that sells itself by filling a need that will remain for some time by many - no need or desire for money Those that end in failure involve: - a leader/team that sees it as part-time volunteer work, and they do it because it makes them feel good about themselves; they are giving back - the assumption that one day maybe they’ll get paid

KronisLV 8mo ago

> Look at Tailwind: 75 million downloads/month, more popular than ever, revenue down 80%, docs traffic down 40%, 75% of engineering team laid off. Someone submitted a PR to add LLM-optimized docs and Wathan had to decline - optimizing for agents accelerates his business's death. He's being asked to build the infrastructure for his own obsolescence. So what are the actual solutions, now that the cat is out of the bag? Much like in the post, you could make it source available and have a free license for non-profits and development, but ask money for commercial usage, or different feature sets (like iframe-resizer, which we recently bought for a project, saved a bunch of time, but the AI models still were trained on it and knew how to use it). Or provide support, like many FOSS DBs and OSes should, same for libraries, maybe to have PostgreSQL dethrone Oracle and the likes just a little bit more. Or maybe some ask-for-funding stuff defined at library level with the expectation that the AIs would present this information to whoever uses them. I don't particularly celebrate https://docs.npmjs.com/cli/v9/commands/npm-fund https://docs.npmjs.com/cli/v9/commands/npm-fund but I get why it's there - similarly we might get IDE plugins and CLI tools and such to present a summary of what libraries or projects were used/suggested in a task/chat session and how to give them money, much like how you'd get references to website sources when trying to ask AI to research something. > My prediction: a new marketplace emerges, built for agents. Want your agent to use Tailwind? Prisma? Pay per access. This probably already exists in the form of MCP solutions for up to date documentation for specific libraries and so on, to mitigate hallucinations. Either way, we need to start implementing actual solutions so we don't keep ending up with https://staltz.com/software-below-the-poverty-line.html https://staltz.com/software-below-the-poverty-line.html all the time. And not just some "human contract" approach of expecting that someone will go to your docs manually and see the banner that they can give you money for more bells and whistles or something. To me, that feels like wishful thinking. AI or not, people's work should be rewarded and that needs some sort of standardization - and I hold that view even in regards to answering feature requests on GitHub, like if someone demands something, they should immediately have the option to place money into an escrow for when/if a solution is presented to them (or get the money back if not). If they don't, you have no obligation to help them unless from the goodness of your own heart and the innate desire to do so. Similarly, if I use 10 libraries, I should be able to say "Okay I have 50 bucks, I want to donate to all of these projects by executing a single npm command and confirming a PayPal payment or something." Incidentally, that's also the first step towards building the Torment Nexus (capitalist incentives will find a way to turn this into a hellscape), but go figure.

theboywho 8mo ago

While the observations might be true, I’m not sure going closed source is going to help here. If optimizing docs for AI makes you less visible, guess what else makes you less visible : not even being accessible. Just because AI is "taking advantage" of projects being open source doesn’t mean the solution is direct closed source. Going with the most direct solution to a problem is an indication you might not have spent time thinking deeper about the problem

throwaway150 8mo ago

I don't mean to trivialize the OP's experience. This is definitely a very important matter and serious issue in the industry. So forgive me for raising a much smaller, side point. > I've contributed millions of lines of carefully written OSS code over the past decade I have never tracked my own output, but I would be surprised if I have written even a single million lines of code, let alone several. Out of curiosity, is this common? Have people here actually written millions of lines of code themselves? Even assuming two million lines over thirty years, that still averages to around 180 lines per day, every day. It is doable but it is a very high level of sustained output. I am not doubting the OP. Just noting that this represents an extraordinary amount of coding by any measure.

Madmallard 8mo ago
I've been coding for 20 years and I don't think come close personally. Some napkin math: 100-200 python scripts (maybe 250 lines on average) Work within 10 or so large repositories. (Probably no more than 5000 lines in any repo) (maybe 750 lines on average) 20 or so hobby project games largest being around 30,000 lines (maybe average around 6000?) 15 websites with back-ends (maybe average around 2000 lines) 50 or so school projects (maybe 100 lines on average?) Two work projects one a games website around 15,000 and the other a .Net application around 20,000 Looks like around 235,000
Ekaros 8mo ago
Also I find it interesting describing it carefully written. To me that most likely would indicate something that has been reviewed, rewritten and reconsidered multiple times. Thus bringing down the total number of lines. As there would be significant time spend on same lines. Or would anyone disagree that carefully written code takes more time and in the end probably results lot less lines produced in total?
ZoneZealot 8mo ago
It's almost like the kind of extra filler that an LLM adds because it doesn't understand the meaning behind the words...
capitol_ 8mo ago

deadnetslop 8mo ago

[dead]

wewewedxfgdf 8mo ago

Tailwind is down because it solved the same problem that AI does - CSS is super complex, write only code and largely not memorable. AI is perfect for writing CSS because you can tell it your intent and it does it. There just is not the need for frameworks/libs to make it less complex.

csomar 8mo ago
I have just written an article about this (submitted by someone else: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46565409 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46565409) What you are saying is wrong and countered with hard data: LLMs produce and increase the use of tailwind not decrease it. Confirmed by the founder himself.
- nairboon 8mo ago
  Where is the hard data?
- deleted 8mo ago
  [deleted]
- BoredPositron 8mo ago
  And you think LLMs can't produce tailwind components? Because that's the problem they are facing, not tailwind usage itself.

shevy-java 8mo ago

Bye Marc - please stay in the proprietary world too. Others will do the open source development from this point on.

cindyllm 8mo ago
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janlucien 8mo ago

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ZoneZealot 8mo ago

It's an incredibly complex topic, and I do feel for people who are now seeing a massive disruption to the existing ways to monetise their own work (they should be able to live comfortably). It's quite ironic that they used an LLM to write or at least entirely re-format their post, when their topic is about the impact these systems have on the ongoing sustainability of the humans behind the work. I personally don't use LLMs and generative models, I find their output way too untrustworthy and their practice of mining the data of others unsettling. Not that anything on the internet can be inherently trusted anyway.

stego-tech 8mo ago

Frustratingly, while I sympathize with their very real plight, I also have to agree with OP’s ultimate decision. OSS was exploited by hyperscalers to build trillion-dollar industries atop of, but without ever suitably compensating, the creators of much of those tools for their work or sharing in the profit. Before AI, the community was already at a breaking point between private enterprise spouting “supply chain” bullshit at them to demand fixes and attention, or steamrolled small devs to prop up a big corp’s trademark or product, all the while never actually paying enough for the proper development and support of those products - look at NPM (leftpad and kik) as prime examples. Now you have these same big tech ghouls scraping small sites into oblivion with hostile bots, making token predictors that are deliberately engineered to never, ever direct someone to a primary source or site except as an absolute last resort (to keep folks “in app” for engagement metrics), and openly pitching AI coding agents as replacements for human coders forever. In that context, it’s no fucking wonder that the OSS community is becoming increasingly hostile to the very norms that have left most of them broke and increasingly destitute. Hell, for up-and-coming devs emerging from bootcamps, the mantra of “contribute to OSS” makes zero sense in a Capitalist marketplace that’s pivoting hard towards AI-as-human-replacement; as the OP points out, why bother training your own replacement? OSS won’t die, but this is a particularly painful chapter that emphasizes it cannot support itself through the (non-existent) generosity of Capital. Alternate funding schemes and organization models are needed to prepare and support it for the future, be they government grants, Academia sponsors, or outright Gov-funded Private or Public Corporations (e.g., BBC, Corporation for Public Broadcasting (RIP), etc). Updates to OSS licensing schemes barring use-cases or with more substantial teeth for commercial use are also needed, toeing the line between empowering users of general computing and extracting reasonable payments from businesses or enterprises.

ahmetomer 8mo ago

There's no complexity in understanding an OSS author wanting to make money out of their hard work. People forget that OSS is about providing something useful to the world for free because they choose to do so. And anyone who doesn't want to follow this, or chooses to transition to a new model, should be respected with their decision. Accusing them of "greed" is to be out of touch and out of taste. This is as much a personal matter as it is about the current and future state of OSS in general.

oliwarner 8mo ago

But I use open source software because I can see and alter what's running. When you do this in a community of other developers, even as a user, you get a lot of stuff for free. I write FOSS software because I want to use it. I know the economics require give and take. Yes, LLMs are all take. Yes, they bastardise the licenses and abuse the model. But they don't change why I want to use open source software. They don't change the fact that people need to keep writing it to keep receiving it. Long story short, I think a lot fewer people are going to use Marc's software. He might be okay with the commercial realities of this (it might be a runaway success) but I think as non-developers get more acquainted with LLMs, being able to ask a bot to change how your system works is going to be more popular, not less, even if it's not the model RMS wanted.

poisonborz 8mo ago

TLDR: author only sees OSS as a sort of marketing funnel for paid tiers and business fame

perrygeo 8mo ago

I've never thought of open source as something you can make money on directly. It's hard to see how it benefits an IC economically, besides getting some recognition and a sense of pride. Open source has always felt explicitly like a benefit for companies. - They get free code, buy vs build is irrelevant when you can just pip install. - Systems become largely homogenized, thus contributors are replaceable. - They get an established pool of workers who know the technology already, no training required. - They get free labor from contributors outside their organization maintaining their dependencies for them in perpetuity. It's a great deal for employers! Especially if they forbid their employees from contributing back! If you work out the game theory, there's literally no reason for a company to do anything but sit back and siphon the benefits for themselves. This doesn't really change with LLMs, it just makes the end game much more explicit. The goal was always to capture the intellectual output of open source contributors for private profit. Always. Now that it's actually happening, who's really shocked?

flowerthoughts 8mo ago
> when you can just pip install. To add: This is okay in early organizations. In larger organizations, the risk of malicious code entering your systems is much greater. So I think FOSS benefits small companies more than large companies, which seems good.

TrevorFSmith 8mo ago

The essence of free software is and always has been charity. Some people attempt to interface with capitalism via "open source" but that game is rigged to make previous winners continue to win so you missed the boat. It's a mistake to link coding to how you get food, shelter, safety, etc. Do it for fun or not at all.

burnt-resistor 8mo ago

This is pissing into the wind because in, the long run, AI will write the functionality it wanted to use instead because there are no magic or special libraries. Furthermore, it will eventually (over a long enough timescale) eat deeper down the stack by writing programming languages (with most incomprehensible to humans*), designing chips, designing systems, deploying code, planning datacenters, and designing products... this the manifestation of a gradual technological "singularity". * This is how billionaire techbros will finally push most humans out of tech. All they're doing now by putting up roadblocks is collectively punishing humans from competing with AI. On the other side of the token, don't give away things and expect payment. Give things away because it's cool, not as a primary survival strategy based on mythological expectations of gratuity. It comes across as bitter giver's remorse. And unprofessional poison spewed onto social media also wrecks their professional reputation and drives customers away.

pan69 8mo ago

What do we think the future is going to looks like? "I need a caching component in my stack. Oh, I just let AI create it from scratch, so AI can also run it, maintain it etc." or "I need a caching component in my stack. Oh, let me just grab an existing, well maintained and supported cache component and let AI write the glue logic to run it, maintain it etc." Personally I think it will be the second one. There definitely is a case for generating one off tools but I don't think AI will replace established, well written and maintained software (being it open-source or not). Not all software is equal. I can get 80% of my new SaaS to be generated by AI as it's mostly considered boilerplate and mostly the same as any other SaaS. It's the 20% that makes it unique OR something that AI can't touch like a special relationship with a supplier or a first to market position etc.

CamperBob2 8mo ago

Well, bye

nialv7 8mo ago

Millions of lines of code in a decade?! One million would be 400 loc every working day. And he said millions. And that's only counting code he open sourced. I don't believe it is possible to "carefully" write thousands of lines of code every single day.