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Maybe I have scar tissue from COVID prices but $20k to install a ductless heat pump vs. a $200 to throw a window A/C in or $700 for a portable heat pump. While

• deleted 11mo ago
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• chongli 11mo ago
  This is talking about cold-climate heat pumps. A $200 window AC isn't going to heat your house when it's way below freezing outside. $20k USD is insane though. I live in Ontario and we paid $12k CAD (pre-government subsidy) for a modern heat pump with a backup high efficiency furnace for when temperatures dip down to -40 or lower.
  • dzhiurgis 11mo ago
    Actually its probably most efficient way because you have best control. That said having whole house ducted you also get benefit of fresh air via ERV (arguably more important than heating).
  • danielsju6 11mo ago
    True. We have natural gas and an existing steam radiator setup though, for the two months a year window heat pumps can't keep up. The upfront investment alone would heat my house for 10-20 years. Honestly, just piling more insulation in the attic and doing an energy audit will probably put the ROI out another 10+ years... I'm hoping the newer window units that are being rolled out to the NYC market will be good enough to put downward pressure on the outrageous prices in the installation market. Or maybe I'll just dedicate a weekend to DIYing :P
    • chongli 11mo ago
      There’s another alternative: a mini-split. Larger than a window unit, with a refrigerant lines you run yourself but with the actual refrigerant pre-charged inside the unit, so you don’t need to handle it yourself (which usually requires a license). Mini-splits tend to be much cheaper than full installations.
      • dzhiurgis 11mo ago
        2k NZD to install minisplit vs 160KWh per winter month to heat my bedroom. Thats about $150 in power or 16 yrs to pay itself at COP 5. Or install 1 additional $130 solar panel to make about 650 KWh per year. Makes sense for living room tho.
        • chongli 11mo ago
          Oh you live in New Zealand! Where I live (Canada) if you don’t heat the entire house then the pipes freeze and burst and then the whole house floods.
          • dzhiurgis 11mo ago
            I do heat house main (using hp) just for comfort (and because it’s cheap). And I come from further than saaskwatch so I know what freezing pipes mean haha. My point tho is - hp’s are not panacea in my use case.
            • chongli 11mo ago
              Heat pumps are not inherently expensive though. It depends on how competitive (or not) your HVAC industry is. Sounds like New Zealand has issues with this (probably due to being a small market).
              • dzhiurgis 11mo ago
                High cost of labour is what screws us here in NZ. Tons of cheap heatpump from china sans tariffs and pretty much every house is required to have one. I’d imagine similar in Canada. Either way whenever we discuss energy we should clarify where we post from since circumstances differ wildly.
  • mikepurvis 11mo ago
    Similar for me, also in Ontario. I got a three zone mini split this year that I’m hoping can cover most of the shoulder seasons and keep me from using the gas boiler, though it remains to be seen if that’ll actually pan out; so far the kids have complained that their rooms are a lot less evenly heated when it’s the heat pump running rather than the rads.
• glxxyz 11mo ago
  It's the opposite for me, much bigger ROI on the heatpump than solar. Rural property, 10 years old, ~3,500 sq ft + basement, in Canada where summer can be above 30C (86F) and winter below -30C (-20F). Electricity costs (Canadian) 7.6 ¢/kWh off-peak and 15.8 ¢/kWh on-peak here. I spent C$40K (about US$30k) on a ground source aka 'geothermal' heat pump to replace furnace powered by propane tank. I kept propane for on-demand hot water and whole house generator. I have no options for utilities other than electricity. A couple of years later I spent another C$40k for a 20kW rooftop solar system, with net metering and no battery. Net metering was critical for getting any return at all. A battery is next to useless here- I generate almost all of my solar electricity in May-Oct but use the majority of it in Nov-April. Net metering lets me 'store' excess from summer and use it in winter. Annual costs: Before: C$8,000+ propane (heating + hot water) C$2,500 electricity (cooling + misc) $10,500 total With C$40k investment in geothermal heatpump: C$4,500 electricity (heating + cooling + misc) C$500 propane (hot water) C$5,000 total. With heatpump and then C$40k investment in rooftop solar: C$2,000 electricity (heating + cooling + misc) C$500 propane (hot water) C$2,500 total. So I'm seeing about C$8k/yr saving for C$80k investment. The heatpump saved me over $5k a year and the solar about $2,500 a year. The heatpump has pretty much paid for itself after 5 years, the solar will take at least 15 years (unless prices go way up) although should eventually see some return 15-20 years out. In reality it might have cost even more than that to heat with propane. On the propane furnace we barely heated in winter, burned a lot of firewood to make part of the house livable. I'm trying estimate how much it would cost to heat the house to a comfortable 20C (68F) although the thermostat now with the heatpump is set to 22C (72F) in winter so there's an improvement in comfort as well as the ROI.
  • mattmaroon 11mo ago
    Solar in northernly climates is still not practical. (I’m Canada adjacent.)
    • glxxyz 11mo ago
      People told me that, but I did the calculations myself and the impact on my energy bills is real. Net metering is essential though, so not everyone can do it. Compared to say SoCal I generate 2/3 as much per year, much less evenly- a lot more in summer than winter, whereas further south there's less variation year round. Cooler temperatures improve solar panel efficiency too. There are online solar potential calculators if you want to compare for yourself.
• kalleboo 11mo ago
  For comparison, I just bought a house here in Japan. Installed 6 minisplit heat pumps across various rooms in the house. All together it cost me 750,000 yen ($5,000) for the hardware and 90,000 yen ($600) for the install.
  • steveBK123 11mo ago
    In US the labor & markup is a huge component. I got HVAC drop-in replacement quotes ranging from $7k to $14k for what upon some quick research was about $3k in hardware.
    • orwin 11mo ago
      Can you do the installation yourself? In my country i have to make a HVAC technician come to check the installation and sign a paper before i can start mine (200€ for a 15 minutes job, but it's less than the 2-4k it would cost to not do it myself) [edit] i say that because my hardware is 2.5k euros, so ~3k¯dollars, so we probably have the same high end stuff, and i guarantee you it's not hard to install, and it can be quite fast if you have help from your SO.
      • steveBK123 11mo ago
        Central air system with indoor blower & outdoor condenser generally don't come with pre-charged lines so self-install without certification isn't really an option in US.
        • mothballed 11mo ago
          I got my EPA 608 universal for free after 2 night of cramming and an online proctored test. Skillcat, I think they charge like $50 if you want a printed card, worth it to me because I wanted to be able to walk into supply houses and buy refrigerant.
          • theoreticalmal 11mo ago
• prasadjoglekar 11mo ago
  This. The quotes I got for a single 2 ton heat pump with a oil backup ranged from $15K to $45K. It's insane and really made me look into the DIY installs. Even if I broke 2 of those it would still be cheaper than one professional one. Solar install is another scam. All those companies want to steer you into a PPA rather than let you buy panels.
  • ricardobayes 11mo ago
    Yup, got similar quotes. I'm really not going to pay that for a day's work (2 people). The price difference over installing A/C is staggering and don't know where it comes from.
    • coffeebeqn 11mo ago
      That is insane. I paid 1000EUR for an install on two floors (two indoor units) plus a few hundred for extra copper pipe not included in the quote. Took two guys about 7h. At least an hour of that was figuring out how to get power to the unit with a big enough fuse (my bad)
• jofla_net 11mo ago
  Its most simply summed up as what I call the tradesman's protection racket. On one side of the coin you have any moron, calling himself a repair man which can and does end in disastrous jobs which can be unsafe. This though has much lower pricing. The flip side is, basically a protection racket where suppliers only sell to you if you have a 'loicense' and the hurdles required to become said VIP are so high, giving your body to a master tradesman to get a piece of paper over many years and be allowed to practice installing said systems results in a huge shortage of qualified people. Prices then skyrocket. I wish I could live in a world somewhere in the middle, but as I've seen both ends of the spectrum, they both suck for different reasons.
  • adwn 11mo ago
    Have you considered that the second path you outlined, "giving your body to a master tradesman to get a piece of paper over many years" (in the figurative sense), is in general a necessary prerequisite to avoid the first path of any moron being allowed to "[call] himself a repair man which can and does end in disastrous jobs"? > I wish I could live in a world somewhere in the middle […] This world would just be a mixture of both, with many more semi-skilled tradesmen doing many more half-assed jobs, but not having to train as long.
    • bluGill 11mo ago
      I've done a lot of that type of work myself. It isn't hard to learn how to do it right from books - and I have passed inspection reports to prove it. I've also seen those professionals do a terrible job - to the point inspectors admitted to hurrying my job because they knew the next would be a mess.
      • adwn 11mo ago
        I believe you. But not everyone is an autodidact. Most people, for whom becoming an electrician or plumber is the best option among all viable careers, do not have the discipline, aptitude, and intelligence to learn the theoretical and practical knowledge of a trade completely on their own. And vice versa, people who would be able to pull this of, typically have options that are better-paying, higher-status, or less physically demanding.
• NedF 11mo ago
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• matwood 11mo ago
  COVID prices just aren't a good comparison. I needed to replace a tankless water heater and was quoted $4k. I laughed, paid $1100 for a top of the line one and had my neighbor help me who used to be a plumber. Took 30 minutes and a bottle of a tequila for my neighbor.
• nine_k 11mo ago
  Of the $20k, let's assume $5k is the hardware. Now $15k is the work. Let's consider the installation a highly skilled job, commanding $100/hour. This is 150 hours, or a tad more than 6 business days for a team of 3, working with full load 8 hours a day. Does a split system indeed take so much work? What is so effort-intensive?
  • Nition 11mo ago
    Absolutely not. A basic ductless heat pump takes three or four hours to install by a couple of workers.
  • brianwawok 11mo ago
    That’s just how US HVaC places price. It’s a racket. I got 45k quotes for 5k of hardware for an 8 hour max job. Good reason to learn DIY
  • JeremyPOsborne 11mo ago
    2-3 hours planning, parts list, client management, 4-6 hrs to run electrical, 2-4 hrs to mount condenser, 4-8 hrs for medium line set, 4-8 hrs air handler, duct, platform integration, 1-2 hrs with thermostat and condensate protection, 1-2 hours nitrogen testing and pull vacuum, 1 hr documenting photos for incentive programs, 1 hr spending time educating customer about the system. Messing up a parts order and figuring out a solution 4 hrs too often. Total: 28 hrs, or 2-3 days of 2 people depending on the travel from their shop to customers home. I agree. Let's get that down to 12-16 hrs or single day and the best shops and installers can do that. CA Labor law allow about 6-7 hrs of work on site as installers often have to start at their shop. $3-4k of labor cost for small-mid size. Best might be be 2-3K labor cost. Minor equipment 1-2K, permit and testing required $1K. Then 50% gross margin is the target, net costs $2.5K indirect labor, $2K sales cost, project management, trucks, insurance, software, 10-20% net margin. Just added the details in a comment above. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45705876 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45705876
• CalRobert 11mo ago
  Why not pick up a few mini splits from Home Depot and slap them in yourself?
  • stavros 11mo ago
    I think the better question here is "why can't I pay a fair price for an expert to do this for me?". What has happened to the market?
    • antonymoose 11mo ago
      One question I would have is how distorted is your area, economically? I live in the Appalachian mountains, so one would think it should be reasonable labor rates for an area with a middle-low cost of living. Except that we have a lake the next town over which is entirely covered in millionaire lake houses, so anyone working a trade here can and will charge obscene rates to local, normal people because they can command that rate from a rich transplant that is price insensitive. You can occasionally find a good, reasonable guy or company still, but you’ll be calling around for days to find them. Having previously spent a decade in a hot-market (Charleston, SC) you’ll find similar stories, there are plenty of workers in the area, but they’re almost always expecting to charge rates to wealthy price-insensitive transplants.
      • stavros 11mo ago
        You've kind of exposed me, I'm not in the US, my question was in the first person but it was more that I'm curious as to the causes of what the commenters report. You may be right about the area just being HCoL, though.
        • CalRobert 11mo ago
          Note that in some places (the EU for instance) self-installation is illegal since you need an F-gas certified installer. Of course, this may result in higher emissions than letting people DIY it, since it discourages switching away from gas....
• everdrive 11mo ago
  We just got quoted $20k for the minimum setup for our house. Meanwhile, I have two "free" window units which probably cost me an additional $300 in the summer. I really want heat pumps, but I just can't see how I can justify it for $20k.
• tibbon 11mo ago
  Agreed. They feel massively overpriced. Covid and government rebates had everyone using them as cash cows. I installed a 24k btu one for my recording studio myself. Took me 3 hours. It’s a cheap Mr Cool one, but seems good enough for me and has been problem free. $1300 from Costco. The quotes I got were $10-30k for one to five head units around my house. Nope! If I’m going to spend that much I’m going to be looking into geothermal for heating
• coffeebeqn 11mo ago
  That’s wild. Is it something that plugs into a central air so not the usual consumer heat pump? I just got a nice heat pump in Finland for two floors with two indoor units for about $3000 with install. It should handle 99% of our heating needs. The most expensive units on the market are about $3000-4000 and for install I got quoted $1k fixed without shopping around. That includes drilling through two brick outside walls. The units are all made in China and labor is cheaper in the US if anything. Where are these prices coming from ? The materials they install are small copper pipes and insulation and a 16A capable electric cable and some plastic. Maybe $100-200. I feel like you guys are getting screwed.
  • dns_snek 11mo ago
    It would be helpful to provide the rated thermal power of your heat pump. You might need a 3kW heat pump while they need a 16kW one.
    • coffeebeqn 11mo ago
      7.5kW - around 105m2
• steveBK123 11mo ago
  Northeast US here. My 30 year old central air which covers 1 floor of my home went out recently so I got a bunch of replacement quotes, most vendors I asked for both a traditional central air & a heat pump central air quote. The quotes were generally 50% more expensive for the heat pump option. Vendor A: $12.5k AC, $17.7K Heat Pump + extra electrical work for the heat strips. Vendor B: $8K AC, $11K Heat Pump + they don't think the existing ductwork is sufficient for comfortable heating and would recommend redoing some of it. And I wouldn't qualify for any tax credits because it doesn't cover full home (there are upper floors without ducts that already are on mini splits & baseboard heat). Also worth noting the range of HVAC quotes for the same spec cooling in the same home are insane. Every quote I got seemed to widen the range.
• sevensor 11mo ago
  My house came with ghastly inefficient heating (ceiling cable) and no AC. Mini splits were worth every penny.
• retrochameleon 11mo ago
  I recall the extra cost for heat pumps being criticized for being artificial by Technology Connections. The installers are to blame.
  • derektank 11mo ago
    How are installers able to discourage competitors from driving down prices?
• JeremyPOsborne 11mo ago
  Some are trying to cut HVAC install costs in half, and a lot of people are already working on it including Jetson (where the author works) and disclaimer my company Electric Air. Average install is about $20K in California (varies by state). Here’s how that usually breaks down: - Equipment: $3–5K for a basic swap (some go up to $10K for single system) - Direct labor: $3–4K (about 15–20%) - Materials: $2–3K - Permits and testing: around $1K total That leaves about a 45% margin to cover overhead: - Indirect labor: $2.5K (installers when not installing, install managers, attending city inspector visits, call backs when installers make mistakes) - Sales: $2K (around 10%) - Project management: $500 - Trucks: $500 - Misc costs: $1.5K (insurance, software, payment processing, etc.) Total overhead: $7K: Net margin: 10% 10% net margin at the end of the year isn't egregious. That’s how a typical small-mid HVAC shop runs. The best HVAC shops can make these numbers be much more competitive. How do we make it better: - Bulk order equipment - Streamline direct labor - Use virtual site visits instead of in-person sales calls Do all that and you can bring a $20K install down close to half, while paying installers better and speeding up electrification.
  • harmmonica 11mo ago
    I'm not sure if you're going to get downvoted here for the advertisement (not by me because I find it useful and interesting), but can you be specific about what "streamline direct labor" means? Also, with the virtual site visit, are you guaranteeing the customer that the estimate you give virtually will be the ultimate price? Any chance you can you take on solar next because if we could get a solar system for half the price we'd sign right up. All we hear about is how cheap solar is now, but the labor costs have risen more than any hardware price decreases.
    • JeremyPOsborne 11mo ago
      Yeah, really trying not to advertise. But add disclaimer. Thanks for letting me know it's a bit much. I tried to tone it down. Let me know if it's better or i should delete. streamline labor: Aligning pay incentives with installers, ensure right parts and materials, make sure customer are not indecisive on the first day, mimic the 15% of installs that are side jobs as much as possible. Virtual site visits aren't 100%. But allows us to get a price quickly, and check electrical capability. It's a bit of a test for customers, if they are interested in snapping 5 or so photos, they probably won't buy from us. Half the time, we then go out for a site visit in-person but we're only visiting 50% of the customers. It's less expensive, however our conversion rates go down because we're not winning the customer with our personality, etc. If we can verify directly from photos and go straight to contract, we send out a install manager to confirm after the signature. Basically, if some giant obstacle that will stops the install, we can cancel at no cost to the customer and we do that all very quickly so they can select another bid if that happens. Solar is tough, I am a renewable energy engineer from Australia and yes, we can half the cost of solar as seen in Australia. I think Australian are simply less fussy and legally charged than governments and home owners in US and simple installs. I now believe large central PV will likely be more successful here. 40% of electricity is often coming from solar and wind in CA and we can just keep doing that and we'll be fine.
• reverendjames 11mo ago
  I live in Asia and I'm in charge of air conditioning at my company. A ductless A/c is approximately $1,200 installed. $20k? You should put a split unit in each room. If one breaks, go sleep in the other room. I have 6 of them installed in my apartment.
  • danielsju6 11mo ago
    The $20k quote was for two ductless units, with two heads each, which would just cover the bedrooms in my home. Quite the racket here in the US. They’re still a luxury product.