5 ms·
Welcome to the Era of Experience [pdf]
- Siah 1y ago[flagged]
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- jgbmlg 1y agoIt's ironic that machine intelligence is advancing during an era when human intelligence is declining.
- unsnap_biceps 1y agoI feel like declining human intelligence is a result of advancing machine intelligence. Computers are a force multiplier and societal pressure towards building intelligence is reduced.
- whatnow37373 1y agoSo the AGI/ASI problem might solve itself: we slowly become incapable of iterating on the problem while existing AI is not nearly advanced enough to pick up the slack. It’s quite beautiful. Once a civilization tries to build machine intelligence it slowly degrades its own capacity during the process thus eventually losing all hope of ever achieving their goal - assuming they still understand their goal at that point. Maybe it’s an algorithm in the Universe to keep us from being naughty.
- dullcrisp 1y agoMaybe machine intelligence only seems to be advancing from the perspective of human intelligence
- teberl 1y agoI like that thought.
- anal_reactor 1y ago> when human intelligence is declining It's not. It's just that previously we were unaware how stupid people are, and now we're starting to understand this.
- baxtr 1y agoIs there scientific evidence for this statement?
- CuriouslyC 1y agoThe human brain optimizes for efficiency, if that extra intelligence doesn't confer survival benefits it'll be lost. I can't imagine that intelligence doesn't confer survival and reproductive benefits though, it's more likely that the gradient of survival and reproduction between the most intelligent and least has shrunk. In a sense civilization is coddling the weak, and humanity is getting weaker for it.
- huijzer 1y agoMaybe on average, but I think it’s probably correlated to inequality. The kid of two Oxford professors will probably be smarter than a kid that grew up in poverty. The school system is aimed at mitigating these differences, but if on average everyone gets less intelligent maybe the school system is working poorly.
- lazide 1y agoEh, or there is a massive effort to push as many people as possible down Maslow’s hierarchy of needs - which also shows up as being less intelligent. Happening right out in the open, and quite blatantly.
- chneu 1y agoIt's not. Everytime there's a new form of media or communication there's an uptick in "bad actors". Think yellow journalism or any of the moral panics around TV programming. Even back when the printing press was invented there was an uptick in troll behavior. One of the Green brothers posited that martin Luther was really just a pamphlet troll. With social media and the Internet, stupid just got louder. I don't think people got stupid.
- croes 1y agoNot just louder, it got in power
- baxtr 1y agoYes. Exactly right. Also well documented. Anyone interested, read the book: Attention Merchants by Wu.
- sdsd 1y agoYes and no. In swaths of the world, we're actually observing a reverse Flynn effect and IQ has been dropping, in some places for decades. Eg: https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a43469569/american-iq-scores-decline-reverse-flynn-effect/ https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a43469569/american-...
- _Algernon_ 1y agoThis started long before the internet.
- trollbridge 1y agoStarted in 2006 in Denmark and seemed to start a few years ago in the U.S… coinciding with smartphones (which I think will make us even dumber).
- jimbob45 1y agoIQ tests are administration-sensitive and have changed dramatically since the beginning of such a Flynn effect study. The population makeup of many countries has changed in recent years to include many immigrants for whom the study would make exceedingly little sense to include. IQ tests do not cover and do not claim to cover a comprehensive view of human intelligence, famously lacking verbal and social components entirely. It is possible past IQ tests were simply overtuned and we’re now seeing the natural correction.
- apwell23 1y ago> era when human intelligence is declining is it ? i am listening to most beautiful music that was ever created. it was created in 2024.
- daseiner1 1y agowould citing lebron james explain away the obesity epidemic?
- bethekidyouwant 1y agoYes, the strongest man who ever lived is alive today. The best player of every sport is alive today . It absolutely supports the theory support the theory that the smartest person ever is alive today, etc. etc..
- daseiner1 1y agowhat music??
- enaaem 1y agoMost people are not stupid. They react to their emotions.
- ChrisArchitect 1y agoRichard Sutton: "Ultimately (this) will become a chapter in the book 'Designing an Intelligence' edited by George Konidaris and published by MIT Press."
- kubb 1y agoWowzers, it’s happening imminently. Great to know that we can expect agents that learn from experience very very soon! When they’re here I’ll make an upvote farming bot that learns from experience how not to get caught and unleash it on HM. After that I’ll make an agent that runs a SaaS company that learns from experience how to make money and I’ll finally be able to chill out and play video games. That last thing I’ll actually do myself, I won’t use an agent, although the experience revolution stared with games. Ironic! But I’ll make an agent that learns from experience what kind of games I like and how to make them. This way I’ll have an endless supply.
- tempodox 1y ago> very very soon! If they're not careful, they'll be sued for copyright violation of the Real Soon Now™ brand.
- trollbridge 1y agoThere are days when I feel like I’m a not-so-advanced LLM, just spewing forth text in documents nobody is going to read.
- shiandow 1y agoWe don't need an agent to do all that. We just need it to get better at building agents.
- quantumHazer 1y agoIs it me or this is yet another PR stunt masked as a serious article with LaTeX and all the fancy things? The graph doesn’t even make sense. I’m burning out from all this hypester type of thing, it’s really really tiring.
- TheFragenTaken 1y agoThere should be a term for this. I semi-unironically trust content written in Computer Modern, even if I know it's insane.
- Jensson 1y agoMaybe it was generated by an LLM?
- tempodox 1y ago> I’m burning out The constant barrage of excrement makes critical thinking ever harder, which is by design (it has been proven that pumping out BS en masse is way easier than debunking it). Stop using your brain already and just buy what they tell you. Thinking is done by machines now. As is pumping out BS about how good machines are at thinking.
- gwern 1y agoWhat fancy things? There's not a single equation in the whole thing. (I don't think this is even using Computer Modern, is it? It looks like a considerably thicker serif, and some of the characters like the lower-case 'g' look different.) Or are you referring to 'having 4 short, simple footnotes' as 'fancy' now? And also the graph makes perfect sense and tracks my own impression of RL history, what are you talking about?
- quantumHazer 1y agoWhy not use a blog dot google dot com domain or whatever? Why choose a format that resembles a published article instead? As for the graph, it’s too generic, it doesn’t provide any real value, other than a certain pseudo-appeal reminiscent of paper-style visuals. In my humble opinion, it’s designed to mislead people who fall for hype, much like some of Google’s recent pseudo-scientific blog posts on machine learning. I have deep respect for Sutton and his work, but this kind of things are a hard pass for me.
- artninja1988 1y agoRelated: https://www.deepmind.com/publications/reward-is-enough https://www.deepmind.com/publications/reward-is-enough. Not sure if I buy the reward is enough hypothesis though. Imo an AI with a fixed reward function doesn't seem like agi to me
- albertzeyer 1y agoThat link is dead now? But I guess you mean this? https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370221000862 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S000437022... "Reward is enough", David Silver, Satinder Singh, Doina Precup, Richard S. Sutton, 2021.
- apandy02 1y ago"Imo an AI with a fixed reward function doesn't seem like agi to me" They specifically talk about this in the position paper and describe the need for a "flexible" reward function that's adaptive. It's very hand-wavy and doesn't really describe how they would do this, but there's a lot of research along these lines. "agi" is also not really the subject of the paper.
- numpad0 1y ago...yeah? It'll be great if machines could learn and adapt on-the-fly instead of just compressing the scrapes for 1 epoch over the course of few months into a 1TB download. Making machines learn and adapt on-line is what AI was always about.
- tempodox 1y agoI suspect this text was generated by an LLM.
- yapyap 1y ago[dead]
- baq 1y agoAny such article or book must be read with https://ai-2027.com/ https://ai-2027.com/ in the back of the mind. Exponential processes are… exponentially… dependent on starting conditions, but if takeoff really happens this decade, we’ll be at the destination before Winds of Winter.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- simianwords 1y agoI want to clarify whether the "learn from experience" is still done through RL offline and not autonomously and continuously? I think the core idea from the paper is that while we have already hit the ceiling of normal kind of data; there's a new kind of data from agents acting in the real world and users (or some one else?) providing rewards based on some ground truth. Somehow I misinterpreted from this paper that this kind of learning would be autonomous and continuous.
- kkfx 1y agoHonestly? Well, we entering an era (beside possible global war, famine, ... etc) where knowledge application will be more and more automated, while knowledge creation will be human. Meaning we need less strong arms and more strong brains. Not something that new anyway, the "information age" already makes clear intelligent people could do pretty anything they want to do, while less intelligent are constrained in what they can actually do even if they want. Experience means essentially automation in the chapter terms, something we have already "solved" could be automated by some machine. To solve new things we need humans. That's is. Small potatoes new knowledge, meaning knowledge emerging merely crossing per-existing knowledge like from a literature review paper could be a machine game, it's not really creation of new knowledge in the end. BUT the real point is another: who own the model? LLMs state a clear thing, we need open knowledge just to train them, copyright can't be sustained anymore. But once a model is created who own it? Because the current model is dramatically dangerous since training is expensive and not much exiting, so while it could be a community procedure in practice is a giant-led process, and the giant own the result while harvesting anything from anyone. The effect implied by such evolution are much more startling then the mere automation risk in Lisanne Bainbridge terms https://ckrybus.com/static/papers/Bainbridge_1983_Automatica.pdf https://ckrybus.com/static/papers/Bainbridge_1983_Automatica... or short/mid term job losses.
- 0xCE0 1y agoI hate that "scientific papers" do not have date of publication.