baq

5 ms·

1.
by baq 3d ago
Software is easy until it isn’t - the moment you need serious infra you’re in deep trouble and looking for an experienced partner or a saas solution anyway. The days of b2b saas subscriptions doing one simple thing well for 3 or so users ar
2.
by baq 3d ago
The technical term is ‘meat proxy’
3.
by baq 3d ago
I was just lucky to have found an ancient rhel box when I desperately needed one. Luck is not a process.
4.
by baq 3d ago
The answer is to keep the compiler and the OS image it is running on alongside the source in version control. (Docker alone won’t save you.) Unless you just have an axe to grind?
5.
by baq 3d ago
Surely it isn’t, solving millennium problems on a whim isn’t, either; actually, it’s probably much harder, which is the concern. How hard is it to maneuver an aligned LLM to splice some smallpox into a generic research virus? BSL4 labs do t
6.
by baq 4d ago
if you agree, your p(doom) is 0.
7.
by baq 4d ago
There are governments plural which need to agree to stop and historically I can think of freon, leaded gasoline and IAEA and the latter didn't do as good of a job as it was meant to do (but arguably as good of a job as was politicall
8.
by baq 4d ago
The line of thought goes like this: - p(doom) is 1 - but if we build it, it's only 0.25 - if it realizes, we've got a front row seat
9.
by baq 4d ago
You can order a custom crispred virus for what? $20k? $50k? Or make one yourself, if you know how, which you don't. ...but LLMs do know how; they can design and order one, or tell you how to build a lab to make one. If you ignore this
10.
by baq 4d ago
The idea that a few hundred apes with nothing but a bunch of rocks could one day land on the moon and come back to earth safely must’ve sounded ridiculous a hundred thousand years ago
11.
by baq 4d ago
See you in the desert, friends
12.
by baq 4d ago
No but we can watch AI hack into a BSL4, once
13.
by baq 4d ago
In politics every single person playing the game is acutely aware of the rules. This is why talks are held behind closed doors so the rules can be suspended for a while.
14.
by baq 5d ago
They can do so much more. Astra can beat Minecraft. Not that different from operating a digger. There are diggers which have API interfaces. Pretend or not it doesn’t matter. What matters is what they’re given access to. No sentience, sapie
15.
by baq 6d ago
yes, and they aren't stunts anymore at gpt-6.
16.
by baq 7d ago
Good news! According to some, we don’t have more than 3.5 years in the career path, so that’s 10x less time you have to survive.
17.
by baq 7d ago
black hole? that'd be something. base case is a ton of paperclips.
18.
by baq 8d ago
Kolmogorov looks at this with a ‘duh’ face
19.
by baq 8d ago
They always have and will for the foreseeable future, as will Anthropic and other labs which manage to ascend to the frontier, pretty much by definition. It’s exactly the same with hardware vendors - by the time you can buy the product, the
20.
by baq 8d ago
Doesn’t matter for us.
21.
by baq 8d ago
Bear case? I’m sorry? 70x uplift is a bear case ?
22.
by baq 8d ago
> - First off, to reiterate, WOW. > - Second of all, when does this end? Are we at the dawn of the singularity now? normalcy overhang n. /NOR-muhl-see OH-ver-hang/ The uncanny period during the Singularity when superintellig
23.
by baq 9d ago
10-20x more still needed, and then somewhere to build a couple DCs. Fingers crossed they make it, neither US nor Chinese labs can be trusted, even with open weights.
24.
by baq 10d ago
Humans had multiple occasions to press the 'launch a nuclear holocaust' button and... they didn't. I'd expect aligned AIs to also not press it even when it'd be rational to do so according to their instructions - th
25.
by baq 11d ago
Just like it isn’t possible to get politicians to stop spending other people’s money, it isn’t possible to stop enterprises from making as much money as possible while spending as little as possible on a global scale (it may work locally!)
26.
by baq 12d ago
> Astra is way better than Sol This needs to be evaluated per task, jagged frontier yadda yadda. I would be not at all surprised if sol was better at some things than Astra just like people still use opus 4.6 and for good reasons.
27.
by baq 13d ago
It’s using the computer. I don’t think it’s a farce.
28.
by baq 13d ago
Nobody can escape the dilbert phb law
29.
by baq 13d ago
It’s cursor’s model so plausible, lots of folks use cursor still.
30.
by baq 14d ago
I mean questions like could you predict the decay of Xe-124 correctly? AFAIK theory overestimates the rate

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