8 ms·

An investigation into egg prices

192 points by Armic 2y ago

paradox242 2y ago
Monopolies, oligopolies and cartels. These are the end-game of any capitalist system where the overriding priority is profit. I am not even going to morally fault any of the individual decisions-makers here. They are playing the game within the system that exists, not as one would like it to be. Step zero in changing this situation is helping people understand that capitalism is designed to maximize profits, not cost or supply. That this happens at all is a temporary side-effect of competition, which itself is an inefficiency when optimizing for profits. Proponents of capitalism will focus on competition as if it were some kind of natural condition that keeps everyone honest. Instead, competition leads to collusion, consolidation, and regulation (regulatory capture) to create as high a barrier as possible to enter the market.
araes 2y ago
Generally correlates with my own view on the subject. After reading two USDA reports on the subject "Chickens and Eggs" [1] and "Egg Markets Overview" [2] it seemed like the markets are not responding to actual supply / demand issues. The losses, while large "sounding" (30 million), are not really that enormous in the context of 369 million egg laying flock, down 2% from the previous year. And most of the losses were heavily constrained to the Ohio (44%) / Illinois (22%) area. [1] https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/fb494842n/q524mj24t/z316rx705/ckeg0125.pdf#:~:text=All%20layers%20in%20the%20United%20States%20on,3.91%20million%20layers%20producing%20egg%2Dtype%20hatching%20eggs. https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/... [2] https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf
- thegrim33 2y ago
  The article you're commenting on states that 115 million egg-laying hens were culled, not 30 million.
  - pests 2y ago
    I admit I have not read the article yet but I have done independent research into these stats previously a few weeks ago. I found the 30m quoted number is the monthly cull amount. I have seen many references to the 115m or similar numbers but have no idea over what time period. I had my own ~120m number come up from my calculations: The industry claims it takes 4-6 months to clean, disinfect, hatch and re-grow, and get the chickens to egg-laying age. If you take the ~30m and ~4-6m period, you end up around ~120-180m "missing" egg-laying chickens in the flock at any time assuming this replacement is taking place at expected levels.
    - Jtsummers 2y ago
      The article's 115 million is over 3 years. Your 30 million monthly represents one sampling period within that same 3 year period.
      - pests 2y ago
        I have since read the article and you are correct, thank you.
      - genewitch 2y ago
        Us cull numbers in 2024 were between 130mm and 180mm depending on who is saying the numbers. But I heard our flock numbers in that period were 10 times that. So I'm not sure what to think. I do know it was easy to get chicks this year, so that confused me even more. Perhaps the lack of grocery eggs was because they were incubated instead? I don't know.
        SoftTalker 2y ago
        > Perhaps the lack of grocery eggs was because they were incubated instead? Grocery eggs aren't even fertilized.
        ryao 2y ago
        Some are: https://www.delish.com/food-news/a63842548/what-are-fertile-eggs-trader-joes/ https://www.delish.com/food-news/a63842548/what-are-fertile-... You will find a number of people who have claimed to have hatched a number of types of birds from store eggs, including chickens.
readthenotes1 2y ago
Alas! I thoroughly enjoyed Kevin Hassett's Face the Nation comedy skit "Perimeter of Dead Chickens". I guess I should have known that it was a misdirect... https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kevin-hassett-face-the-nation-transcript-02-16-2025/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kevin-hassett-face-the-nation-t...
vessenes 2y ago
The article had me at "European Chicken Monopoly In Control of US Egg Market." The rest is interesting, but fairly predictable in outcome. Normally competition will drive prices down when margins are good. In this case, the monopoly breaks that cycle and is like ... "Mmm, I like these margins, thanks."
- vessenes 2y ago
  p.s. It also explains why at my local Pacific Northwest family owned market, there were plenty of $4.99 and $6.99 free range eggs per dozen for sale -- I believe this small chain prefers local suppliers.
reify 2y ago
[flagged]
SoftTalker 2y ago
Egg prices are high compared to what they used to cost but still under $1.00 for a two-egg meal. There's not a protein source that's much cheaper, I think the egg producers are exploiting a certain inelasticity of demand. People don't like the price increases but eggs are still very cheap food.
- lxgr 2y ago
  So in your view, potential monopolistic price fixing is not a concern as long as the absolute per-unit numbers are relatively low? By that logic, we’d probably still be paying double-digit cents per minute for long distance calls. (Less than a dollar - a small price to pay to talk to your loved ones across the country!)
  - PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
    which, btw, would also be OK if that was somewhere close to the actual marginal cost of those calls. But of course, it wasn't even in the same universe, let alone ballpark.
  - francisofascii 2y ago
    The OP is providing a potential reason why people continue to buy eggs and are not rushing to alternatives.
  - SoftTalker 2y ago
    I didn't say it wasn't a concern.
- paulddraper 2y ago
  $1 for 8g of protein? Tuna/sardines are a bargain by that measure.
  - throwaway2037 2y ago
    Eggs only have 4 grams of protein each? It is probably 5.5 to 6 grams per egg. Few Americans that I know can stomach eating sardines at the same rate as eggs.
ericjmorey 2y ago
Harris and Walz campaigned specifically on addressing the issues raised by this article. People didn't care if they even understood. We have someone that's implementing a kleptocracy instead. This is not getting solved for at least a decade, probably 50+ years before another regime change occurs.
- teeray 2y ago
  It does make me wonder what it will take to have a government with an appetite for trust busting again.
  - theWreckluse 2y ago
    It might happen when the pop media allows for it. It's very easy to belive the the Govt and all media are in symbiotic cahoots w each other.
  - stogot 2y ago
    Enjoy reading Teddy Roosevelt book as an inspiration
  - jldugger 2y ago
    Vance was pretty anti-trust, but seemingly more against big tech?
    - Forbo 2y ago
      A lot of good that's doing. Big tech was sitting front row for the inauguration.
    - sanktanglia 2y ago
      Vance is in bed with thiel he is explicitly allied with big tech
- generalizations 2y ago
  We'll see. We're only a couple months into this 'regime' - might be interesting to try a different strategy for a little while. H&W may have campaigned on this, but there's two things critical to good advertising: offering what people want, and offering it credibly.
cantrecallmypwd 2y ago
I bet Agri Stats is involved to some degree with price fixing above the baseline of supply intersecting demand.
almosthere 2y ago
It's like with anything else. You can SAY monopolies are illegal, but if you allow them to exist, then owning and controlling the market is, legal. Any small competition that eventually gets large enough will just be bought out by the next one up in the food chain (literally).
- rekabis 2y ago
  And yet, this is the inevitable end-game of unfettered capitalism: to monopolize a market and prevent new entrants so as to eliminate competition and lock-in customers to a single producer that can set prices to whatever they want. If the orange Cheeto was truly interested in combatting corruption, he would break apart this entire industry clear down to individual factories and processing plants, and implement laws to prevent anyone from ever buying out anyone else. Consolidation would be impossible, only organic growth would still be legal. Or just put the entire industry under public control by nationalizing the industry. Without investors and CEOs to Hoover up those profits, prices could crater by 80% or more without affecting production or maintenance.
  - genewitch 2y ago
    Lol "if cheeto wants to end corruption he'd do <socialist things>" I'm in awe, friend.
    - Dylan16807 2y ago
      If you consider breaking up big companies to be "socialist", then there is no problem with that type of "socialism" except associations that only exist in your head because you are considering every kind of "socialism" to be the same thing.
      - latency-guy2 2y ago
        > Or just put the entire industry under public control by nationalizing the industry. Explain what these words in the sequence they were presented mean. Are you sure you're right, at all?
fwip 2y ago
> In other words, the current egg crisis is what the Sovietization of American business looks like. On the contrary - there's nothing more American than corporations abusing their oligopoly status for financial gain.
- villedespommes 2y ago
  I also think it's a very poor choice of words. If Sovietization meant introducing inefficiencies and bureaucracy in the egg supply chain, this is not even remotely what the article claims is going on here: the eggs producers are very intentionally (rather than incompetently or bureaucratically) throttling the egg production because it's more profitable to produce less If the authors meant monopolization of the egg supply, well, that's also pretty far from being uniquely a Soviet phenomenon. It was a really dumb thing to bring up and it chips away at the authors' credibility. Edits: grammar
dm03514 2y ago
First of all I think this article was put together quite well, it was succinct had a great flow and was very easy to follow. The data was laid out to support the case; overall it was great to read. Understanding a problem requires a holistic view of the larger system. An egg producer may say prices are higher Because supply is lower due to culling. Part of that statement is true. The author then zooms out to better understand the larger system. The truth of a matter deviates significantly from one party’s assertions. it’s scary to me that people lack the skills, the desire or incentives to understand and objectively seek understanding of what’s happening around us especially in highly charged US political landscape. This isn’t like pure scientific pursuit of knowledge but a more practical day to day ability to question, understand and gather new information with the purpose of developing an objective understanding of the world.
- bsder 2y ago
  > Understanding a problem requires a holistic view of the larger system. It does, but the result is extremely uncomfortable. And the solving it will require actions that are even more uncomfortable. You have to come to grips with the fact that there are monopolies at every single level. There is no inventory anywhere except bottom. There is no over capacity at any level. Consequently, supply and demand simply do not work. There is no "excess supply" to use to make extra profit by eating the extra demand. There is no upstart supplier who can absorb the extra demand. The big suppliers can ratchet up prices with zero consequences. What are you gonna do about it? > it’s scary to me that people lack the skills, the desire or incentives to understand and objectively seek understanding of what’s happening around us especially in highly charged US political landscape. They don't lack the skills. They have chosen to treat politics like sportsball rather than something to actively think about.
  - Marsymars 2y ago
    > What are you gonna do about it? Substitute tofu?
    - Centigonal 2y ago
jongjong 2y ago
It sounds like it may be the result of standard corporate business practices. Lower prices, take on debt if necessary, until smaller players cannot compete, buy them all up for cheap, then once most of the smaller competitors are out of business (bought out or bankrupt), start pumping up the prices again and use the proceeds to pay off debts. Insiders can dump stocks based on record profit valuations.
- chii 2y ago
  > start pumping up the prices again what stops new entrants from reaping this price rise? Your monopoly would have to prevent new entrants from even starting. That would be where monopoly laws come into effect.
  - jongjong 2y ago
    They can, and the incentive is there but re-entering the market by starting from scratch is tough and takes time. They have to get the land, build the barns/hangars to keep the chickens, apply for licenses, buy equipment, find chicken feed distributors, find customers, etc... Then who knows, maybe by the time they're set up again and just starting to become profitable after a few years, the big corporation who control the egg market will pull the plug and send prices diving again... Pushing all the new entrants to bankruptcy then again the big corporation will be buying up their assets for cheap using cheap debt... Keep repeating over and over, just lobby politicians to add more red tape to control how long it takes to set up a business... That way the big corporation has a certain time window during which they can accumulate massive profits which they can later use to buy up competitors... They also use the interest rates to time everything. Take out a loan to buy businesses when interest rates are at their peak then ride the interest rates on the way down as you refinance and pay off your loans and watch your margins soar... All while your competitors are scrambling to try to take advantage of the high prices and spending tons of money setting up businesses which will belong to you in a few years' time.
jmyeet 2y ago
We see this all the time. There is some shock or reduction to supply and the price goes up but it always goes up way more than the supply change would necessarily warrant. Then it takes forever to return to normal (if it ever does). Interestingly, in the early weeks of the Kamala Harris campaign last year, she actually advocated to fighting or stopping "price gouging", something that was wildly popular: 66% of respondents on a Harris Poll approved [1]. After bringing on her brother-in-law and the former Biden campaign staff however, she never mentioned it again because Wall Street didn't like it. Now you will find all sorts of articles online from serious outlets about how price gouging won't work and they'll simply put a bullhorn in front of economists who say that but there is precedent, namely when Nixon put in a freeze on prices and wages [2]. Now one can agree or disagree with such a policy, whether it's a long term fix or not and so on but we can still say the following: 1. There is absolutely opportunistic price gouging going on, way more than the avian flu would otherwise warrant. This is true for so many things beyond eggs; and 2. Life is becoming unaffordable, especially with housing and food. Ordinary people feel this. Politicians who address those issues will resonate with voters; and 3. Gutting the executive branch, which is currently going on, will only make this worse as there will be even less enforcement of price-fixing than there currently is. [1]: https://theharrispoll.com/briefs/america-this-week-wave-240/ https://theharrispoll.com/briefs/america-this-week-wave-240/ [2]: https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/09/22/nixons-famous-price-freeze-did-stop-inflation/ https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/09/22/nixons-famous-price-...
- unclebucknasty 2y ago
  Have no idea why this was downvoted. >from serious outlets about how price gouging won't work I think you meant to say "price freezes", "anti-gouging regulation" or similar.
- paulddraper 2y ago
  If anything, there is a shortage of eggs (some stores near me have run out), which means prices should be higher not lower.
  - SoftTalker 2y ago
tptacek 2y ago
This is kind of an odd article in that it pulls NASS stats for egg-laying pullets to make a case for steady egg production, but NASS publishes a monthly breakdown of raw (dozen) egg production, and if you graph that, you see we've been cruising along at the lowest production rates we've had in over 10 years, despite tens of millions in added population.
mech975 2y ago
I went to the trouble of finding monthly egg production totals for the US based on "NASS quick stats." https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/80AF9DAE-99AE-31D0-8F1C-EC9E572FE8B5 https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/80AF9DAE-99AE-31D0-... Hopefully yall can make heads or tails of the data. The querying tool is also linked at https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/#80AF9DAE-99AE-31D0-8F1C-EC9E572FE8B5 https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/#80AF9DAE-99AE-31D0-8F1C-EC...
- ryao 2y ago
  That data means that reversing the rule that prevented meat chicken eggs from being sold will have a negligible impact on the crisis: https://www.yahoo.com/news/national-chicken-council-asks-fda-015800118.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/national-chicken-council-asks-fda... It also means this is not going to be a huge impact either: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/turkey-export-15000-tonnes-eggs-us-amid-bird-flu-disruptions-2025-02-19/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/turkey-export-15... That import is 240,000,000 eggs if my math is right. If it is spread over a few months we will barely notice it. If it were achieved in a single month, it might be more noticeable. I am reasoning mostly based on significant figures. I did not compare historical lows to production figures to try to get an idea of what actual demand is and I assume there is a bit of a smoothing effect that allows a surplus and shortfall in adjacent months to cancel.
- araes 2y ago
  Here's a chart of the egg production from the data you found (Jan 2013 to Jan 2025). [1] Added 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order curve fits to give an idea of the general trends in production. [1] https://i.imgur.com/OikRTHL.png https://i.imgur.com/OikRTHL.png
  - akutlay 2y ago
    This seems to align with the article. The article states 3 to 5 percent decline after 2021. I see about the same in this graph.
robofanatic 2y ago
> More hens, less income! Layoff some hens
- Dban1 2y ago
  more layoff, less layegg
  - robofanatic 2y ago
    Hire more roosters
ryao 2y ago
Interestingly, the investigation appears to have begun right after egg prices started to drop: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us No one appears to be reporting the drop yet, which is fair since it is not clear the trend will continue as fundamentals have not changed beyond possible imports from Turkey.
- joshribakoff 2y ago
  5 dozen lucerne eggs is $50 here in SF at Safeway, as of this morny. A few weeks to a month ago, I recall it being $5-$6 for one dozen.
  - ryao 2y ago
    The drop is very recent and refers to upstream prices for contracts, which might have not even been delivered to stores yet. I had been watching the contract prices and successfully predicted increases in my local prices based on it, although the increases tended to lag behind the contract pricing changes by a week or more. I had been expecting another increase when the drop occurred so it is unclear to me whether the drop prevented another increase or is something we will see passed to us in the next week or two. That said, Safeway is an expensive store. Shop at Aldi. It is cheaper. Aldi is so much cheaper that you likely could have groceries delivered from it via Instacart and still save money.
KennyBlanken 2y ago
A local discount grocery chain near me hasn't had shortages nor have they inflated prices. Store brand eggs are $6 for 18. This is in an area where groceries are normally quite expensive. Naturally they could have it be a loss leader, but then I would expect them to be curtailing quantities. The shelves are fully stocked every time I'm there. The other chains, all more expensive, have half or third stocked shelves and a dozen eggs is $7-8 and up. The egg "shortage" is manufactured bullshit. There's only a handful of major egg producers and they're clearly in collusion. Just like the shortages that supposedly lasted a while during the pandemic; CEOs were bragging on earnings that they had raised prices more than their costs went up, and they kept them high after costs dropped - they decided to keep them high because people would pay that. Apparently they don't care that a lot of things folks in poverty / low income buy...aren't discretionary spending.
- reaperman 2y ago
  In Houston we also have eggs for $0.34/each as you do ... but those same eggs were $0.21 each in January. So perhaps your $6 per 18 is the new raised price? Our cheapest eggs have increased in price by 62% in the past 60 days.
  - kjkjadksj 2y ago
    It depends on the grocers contracts. Trader joes is famously selling eggs at $3.50 a dozen since they negotiated a good price a while ago.
ccorcos 2y ago
> fake “animal welfare” program designed to reduce overall flock numbers rather than improve hen’s lives. I love examples like this showing how this moral cultural movements are often just propaganda for nefarious purposes. People talk about recycling being pushed by the plastics industry but I’m sure there are more in the environmental side of things.
- AftHurrahWinch 2y ago
  Did you read the linked evidence that the "animal welfare" program was fake? What part of it did you interpret as fake? What evidence supports your conclusion that this is an example of "propaganda for nefarious purposes"? I agree with the description in the linked document - defendants presented "substantial evidence that grocery stores and other customers demanded animal-welfare standards", companies like McDonald's, Walmart, and Kroger demanded or required the animal welfare standards, the program was developed with input from a "Scientific Advisory Committee" of experts in animal reproductive welfare, and there was pressure from animal-rights groups and consumers for better treatment of hens. https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ilnd.263305/gov.uscourts.ilnd.263305.713.0_5.pdf https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ilnd.26... > For their part, Defendants argued at trial that the UEP Certified Program was a bona fide effort to satisfy customer demand. In Defendants’ view, the UEP Certified Program was a natural response to pressure from animal-welfare groups, buyers, and end consumers. According to Defendants, they felt pressure to make life better for hens. > In that vein, Defendants presented substantial evidence that the grocery stores and other customers demanded animal-welfare standards. So did consumers. And so did animal-rights groups. > For example, before adoption of the UEP Certified Program, Cal-Maine lost McDonald’s as a customer after McDonald’s demanded producers expand the size of cages for their hens. See Defs.’ Ex. 182. And within a few years of the creation of the UEP Certified Program, grocery chains like Walmart and Kroger would purchase eggs only from UEP Certified producers. See Defs.’ Exs. 329, 374, 639. > According to Defendants, they were simply responding to market demand when they implemented the cage-space restrictions in the UEP Certified Program. The jury heard evidence that the UEP Certified Program was a legitimate animal-welfare program. Specifically, Defendants pointed out that the UEP created the standard after following the guidance of a Scientific Advisory Committee. > That Committee consisted of an all-star team. See 11/1/23 Trial Tr., at 3085:25 (Dckt. No. 657) (Armstrong) (“I was very, very pleased. We put our dream team together.”). It was chaired by a leader in the field, Dr. Jeffrey Armstrong, who has degrees in physiology, and specializes in the reproductive physiology of farm animals. See 11/1/23 Trial Tr., at 3074:19-25 (Dckt. No. 657) (Armstrong). Reproductive physiology of farm animals is what it sounds like – how animal reproduction works. Id. at 3075:1-10. > In sum, the jury learned about the UEP Certified program, and about its standards. And the jury heard dueling views about the purpose of the program. > Again, Plaintiffs alleged that the UEP Certified Program was a backdoor way to restrict supply. Plaintiffs told the jury that the program required the birds to have more space. More space equals fewer hens in each cage. And fewer hens means fewer eggs.
bokkies 2y ago
I have 20 hens and 2 roosters (living in a country village where neighbours like the authentic rural vibes) I buy 50kg of feed every 6 weeks for (equivalent)$23. Outside of winter we average 7-12 eggs a day and in winter about 2-4 a day. What we sell covers the cost of feed (except for winter)The birds free range all day and have large compost heaps and worm farms to gorge themselves on. Before moving to the country we had 4 hens in a city garden which worked out to a greater cost per egg due to the lesser free-ranging opportunities but still cheaper than a caged egg from a supermarket. Once you have your own hens you'll never go back to factory eggs!
- aaronbaugher 2y ago
  True. Also, as someone with 30 hens which will soon be coming into peak spring production, I look forward to selling my extra eggs at current prices, assuming they don't fall soon. It never fails: when egg prices go up, I get family and friends hitting me up to buy some eggs at $3/dozen; and then when the store prices fall below that, I don't hear from them and I'm feeding the extras to my dogs. It's funny how some things (real estate) are supposed to keep going up in price, and it's a disaster that requires government intervention if they don't, while for other things (eggs) just the opposite is true. I suppose it depends on who benefits from each.
ndsipa_pomu 2y ago
One solution would be for customers to boycott the big egg producers and refuse to buy their eggs even when they do flood the market with cheaper ones when they aim to put small producers out of business. However, that does require egg consumers to stick to their guns and only buy from the independants.
kjkjadksj 2y ago
Anyone frequenting more than one grocery store can quickly see its not a supply and demand issue setting prices. A few grocery stores never budged setting prices and charged the same and then the frantic news cycle caused people to buy 4x the amount of eggs they need, causing inventory shortages. And then there are other stores that saw this as an opportunity to raise egg prices to like $13 a dozen. Those eggs basically go unsold. I think at this point the biggest factor in the egg supply crunch is that its so publicized and making people act poorly. As a result we see the effective number of available eggs crash as some of these are marked up and go unsold and some linger in someones fridge for a month before consumption. If everyone just bought their usual load of eggs maybe there wouldn’t even be a supply issue.

192 points by Armic 2y ago

Monopolies, oligopolies and cartels. These are the end-game of any capitalist system where the overriding priority is profit. I am not even going to morally fault any of the individual decisions-makers here. They are playing the game within the system that exists, not as one would like it to be. Step zero in changing this situation is helping people understand that capitalism is designed to maximize profits, not cost or supply. That this happens at all is a temporary side-effect of competition, which itself is an inefficiency when optimizing for profits. Proponents of capitalism will focus on competition as if it were some kind of natural condition that keeps everyone honest. Instead, competition leads to collusion, consolidation, and regulation (regulatory capture) to create as high a barrier as possible to enter the market.

araes 2y ago

Generally correlates with my own view on the subject. After reading two USDA reports on the subject "Chickens and Eggs" [1] and "Egg Markets Overview" [2] it seemed like the markets are not responding to actual supply / demand issues. The losses, while large "sounding" (30 million), are not really that enormous in the context of 369 million egg laying flock, down 2% from the previous year. And most of the losses were heavily constrained to the Ohio (44%) / Illinois (22%) area. [1] https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/fb494842n/q524mj24t/z316rx705/ckeg0125.pdf#:~:text=All%20layers%20in%20the%20United%20States%20on,3.91%20million%20layers%20producing%20egg%2Dtype%20hatching%20eggs. https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/... [2] https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf

thegrim33 2y ago
The article you're commenting on states that 115 million egg-laying hens were culled, not 30 million.
- pests 2y ago
  I admit I have not read the article yet but I have done independent research into these stats previously a few weeks ago. I found the 30m quoted number is the monthly cull amount. I have seen many references to the 115m or similar numbers but have no idea over what time period. I had my own ~120m number come up from my calculations: The industry claims it takes 4-6 months to clean, disinfect, hatch and re-grow, and get the chickens to egg-laying age. If you take the ~30m and ~4-6m period, you end up around ~120-180m "missing" egg-laying chickens in the flock at any time assuming this replacement is taking place at expected levels.
  - Jtsummers 2y ago
    The article's 115 million is over 3 years. Your 30 million monthly represents one sampling period within that same 3 year period.
    - pests 2y ago
      I have since read the article and you are correct, thank you.
    - genewitch 2y ago
      Us cull numbers in 2024 were between 130mm and 180mm depending on who is saying the numbers. But I heard our flock numbers in that period were 10 times that. So I'm not sure what to think. I do know it was easy to get chicks this year, so that confused me even more. Perhaps the lack of grocery eggs was because they were incubated instead? I don't know.
      - SoftTalker 2y ago
        > Perhaps the lack of grocery eggs was because they were incubated instead? Grocery eggs aren't even fertilized.
        ryao 2y ago
        Some are: https://www.delish.com/food-news/a63842548/what-are-fertile-eggs-trader-joes/ https://www.delish.com/food-news/a63842548/what-are-fertile-... You will find a number of people who have claimed to have hatched a number of types of birds from store eggs, including chickens.

readthenotes1 2y ago

Alas! I thoroughly enjoyed Kevin Hassett's Face the Nation comedy skit "Perimeter of Dead Chickens". I guess I should have known that it was a misdirect... https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kevin-hassett-face-the-nation-transcript-02-16-2025/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kevin-hassett-face-the-nation-t...

vessenes 2y ago

The article had me at "European Chicken Monopoly In Control of US Egg Market." The rest is interesting, but fairly predictable in outcome. Normally competition will drive prices down when margins are good. In this case, the monopoly breaks that cycle and is like ... "Mmm, I like these margins, thanks."

vessenes 2y ago
p.s. It also explains why at my local Pacific Northwest family owned market, there were plenty of $4.99 and $6.99 free range eggs per dozen for sale -- I believe this small chain prefers local suppliers.

reify 2y ago

[flagged]

SoftTalker 2y ago

Egg prices are high compared to what they used to cost but still under $1.00 for a two-egg meal. There's not a protein source that's much cheaper, I think the egg producers are exploiting a certain inelasticity of demand. People don't like the price increases but eggs are still very cheap food.

lxgr 2y ago
So in your view, potential monopolistic price fixing is not a concern as long as the absolute per-unit numbers are relatively low? By that logic, we’d probably still be paying double-digit cents per minute for long distance calls. (Less than a dollar - a small price to pay to talk to your loved ones across the country!)
- PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
  which, btw, would also be OK if that was somewhere close to the actual marginal cost of those calls. But of course, it wasn't even in the same universe, let alone ballpark.
- francisofascii 2y ago
  The OP is providing a potential reason why people continue to buy eggs and are not rushing to alternatives.
- SoftTalker 2y ago
  I didn't say it wasn't a concern.
paulddraper 2y ago
$1 for 8g of protein? Tuna/sardines are a bargain by that measure.
- throwaway2037 2y ago
  Eggs only have 4 grams of protein each? It is probably 5.5 to 6 grams per egg. Few Americans that I know can stomach eating sardines at the same rate as eggs.

ericjmorey 2y ago

Harris and Walz campaigned specifically on addressing the issues raised by this article. People didn't care if they even understood. We have someone that's implementing a kleptocracy instead. This is not getting solved for at least a decade, probably 50+ years before another regime change occurs.

teeray 2y ago
It does make me wonder what it will take to have a government with an appetite for trust busting again.
- theWreckluse 2y ago
  It might happen when the pop media allows for it. It's very easy to belive the the Govt and all media are in symbiotic cahoots w each other.
- stogot 2y ago
  Enjoy reading Teddy Roosevelt book as an inspiration
- jldugger 2y ago
  Vance was pretty anti-trust, but seemingly more against big tech?
  - Forbo 2y ago
    A lot of good that's doing. Big tech was sitting front row for the inauguration.
  - sanktanglia 2y ago
    Vance is in bed with thiel he is explicitly allied with big tech
generalizations 2y ago
We'll see. We're only a couple months into this 'regime' - might be interesting to try a different strategy for a little while. H&W may have campaigned on this, but there's two things critical to good advertising: offering what people want, and offering it credibly.

cantrecallmypwd 2y ago

I bet Agri Stats is involved to some degree with price fixing above the baseline of supply intersecting demand.

almosthere 2y ago

It's like with anything else. You can SAY monopolies are illegal, but if you allow them to exist, then owning and controlling the market is, legal. Any small competition that eventually gets large enough will just be bought out by the next one up in the food chain (literally).

rekabis 2y ago
And yet, this is the inevitable end-game of unfettered capitalism: to monopolize a market and prevent new entrants so as to eliminate competition and lock-in customers to a single producer that can set prices to whatever they want. If the orange Cheeto was truly interested in combatting corruption, he would break apart this entire industry clear down to individual factories and processing plants, and implement laws to prevent anyone from ever buying out anyone else. Consolidation would be impossible, only organic growth would still be legal. Or just put the entire industry under public control by nationalizing the industry. Without investors and CEOs to Hoover up those profits, prices could crater by 80% or more without affecting production or maintenance.
- genewitch 2y ago
  Lol "if cheeto wants to end corruption he'd do <socialist things>" I'm in awe, friend.
  - Dylan16807 2y ago
    If you consider breaking up big companies to be "socialist", then there is no problem with that type of "socialism" except associations that only exist in your head because you are considering every kind of "socialism" to be the same thing.
    - latency-guy2 2y ago
      > Or just put the entire industry under public control by nationalizing the industry. Explain what these words in the sequence they were presented mean. Are you sure you're right, at all?

fwip 2y ago

> In other words, the current egg crisis is what the Sovietization of American business looks like. On the contrary - there's nothing more American than corporations abusing their oligopoly status for financial gain.

villedespommes 2y ago
I also think it's a very poor choice of words. If Sovietization meant introducing inefficiencies and bureaucracy in the egg supply chain, this is not even remotely what the article claims is going on here: the eggs producers are very intentionally (rather than incompetently or bureaucratically) throttling the egg production because it's more profitable to produce less If the authors meant monopolization of the egg supply, well, that's also pretty far from being uniquely a Soviet phenomenon. It was a really dumb thing to bring up and it chips away at the authors' credibility. Edits: grammar

dm03514 2y ago

First of all I think this article was put together quite well, it was succinct had a great flow and was very easy to follow. The data was laid out to support the case; overall it was great to read. Understanding a problem requires a holistic view of the larger system. An egg producer may say prices are higher Because supply is lower due to culling. Part of that statement is true. The author then zooms out to better understand the larger system. The truth of a matter deviates significantly from one party’s assertions. it’s scary to me that people lack the skills, the desire or incentives to understand and objectively seek understanding of what’s happening around us especially in highly charged US political landscape. This isn’t like pure scientific pursuit of knowledge but a more practical day to day ability to question, understand and gather new information with the purpose of developing an objective understanding of the world.

bsder 2y ago
> Understanding a problem requires a holistic view of the larger system. It does, but the result is extremely uncomfortable. And the solving it will require actions that are even more uncomfortable. You have to come to grips with the fact that there are monopolies at every single level. There is no inventory anywhere except bottom. There is no over capacity at any level. Consequently, supply and demand simply do not work. There is no "excess supply" to use to make extra profit by eating the extra demand. There is no upstart supplier who can absorb the extra demand. The big suppliers can ratchet up prices with zero consequences. What are you gonna do about it? > it’s scary to me that people lack the skills, the desire or incentives to understand and objectively seek understanding of what’s happening around us especially in highly charged US political landscape. They don't lack the skills. They have chosen to treat politics like sportsball rather than something to actively think about.
- Marsymars 2y ago
  > What are you gonna do about it? Substitute tofu?
  - Centigonal 2y ago

jongjong 2y ago

It sounds like it may be the result of standard corporate business practices. Lower prices, take on debt if necessary, until smaller players cannot compete, buy them all up for cheap, then once most of the smaller competitors are out of business (bought out or bankrupt), start pumping up the prices again and use the proceeds to pay off debts. Insiders can dump stocks based on record profit valuations.

chii 2y ago
> start pumping up the prices again what stops new entrants from reaping this price rise? Your monopoly would have to prevent new entrants from even starting. That would be where monopoly laws come into effect.
- jongjong 2y ago
  They can, and the incentive is there but re-entering the market by starting from scratch is tough and takes time. They have to get the land, build the barns/hangars to keep the chickens, apply for licenses, buy equipment, find chicken feed distributors, find customers, etc... Then who knows, maybe by the time they're set up again and just starting to become profitable after a few years, the big corporation who control the egg market will pull the plug and send prices diving again... Pushing all the new entrants to bankruptcy then again the big corporation will be buying up their assets for cheap using cheap debt... Keep repeating over and over, just lobby politicians to add more red tape to control how long it takes to set up a business... That way the big corporation has a certain time window during which they can accumulate massive profits which they can later use to buy up competitors... They also use the interest rates to time everything. Take out a loan to buy businesses when interest rates are at their peak then ride the interest rates on the way down as you refinance and pay off your loans and watch your margins soar... All while your competitors are scrambling to try to take advantage of the high prices and spending tons of money setting up businesses which will belong to you in a few years' time.

jmyeet 2y ago

We see this all the time. There is some shock or reduction to supply and the price goes up but it always goes up way more than the supply change would necessarily warrant. Then it takes forever to return to normal (if it ever does). Interestingly, in the early weeks of the Kamala Harris campaign last year, she actually advocated to fighting or stopping "price gouging", something that was wildly popular: 66% of respondents on a Harris Poll approved [1]. After bringing on her brother-in-law and the former Biden campaign staff however, she never mentioned it again because Wall Street didn't like it. Now you will find all sorts of articles online from serious outlets about how price gouging won't work and they'll simply put a bullhorn in front of economists who say that but there is precedent, namely when Nixon put in a freeze on prices and wages [2]. Now one can agree or disagree with such a policy, whether it's a long term fix or not and so on but we can still say the following: 1. There is absolutely opportunistic price gouging going on, way more than the avian flu would otherwise warrant. This is true for so many things beyond eggs; and 2. Life is becoming unaffordable, especially with housing and food. Ordinary people feel this. Politicians who address those issues will resonate with voters; and 3. Gutting the executive branch, which is currently going on, will only make this worse as there will be even less enforcement of price-fixing than there currently is. [1]: https://theharrispoll.com/briefs/america-this-week-wave-240/ https://theharrispoll.com/briefs/america-this-week-wave-240/ [2]: https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/09/22/nixons-famous-price-freeze-did-stop-inflation/ https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/09/22/nixons-famous-price-...

unclebucknasty 2y ago
Have no idea why this was downvoted. >from serious outlets about how price gouging won't work I think you meant to say "price freezes", "anti-gouging regulation" or similar.
paulddraper 2y ago
If anything, there is a shortage of eggs (some stores near me have run out), which means prices should be higher not lower.
- SoftTalker 2y ago

tptacek 2y ago

This is kind of an odd article in that it pulls NASS stats for egg-laying pullets to make a case for steady egg production, but NASS publishes a monthly breakdown of raw (dozen) egg production, and if you graph that, you see we've been cruising along at the lowest production rates we've had in over 10 years, despite tens of millions in added population.

mech975 2y ago

I went to the trouble of finding monthly egg production totals for the US based on "NASS quick stats." https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/80AF9DAE-99AE-31D0-8F1C-EC9E572FE8B5 https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/80AF9DAE-99AE-31D0-... Hopefully yall can make heads or tails of the data. The querying tool is also linked at https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/#80AF9DAE-99AE-31D0-8F1C-EC9E572FE8B5 https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/#80AF9DAE-99AE-31D0-8F1C-EC...

ryao 2y ago
That data means that reversing the rule that prevented meat chicken eggs from being sold will have a negligible impact on the crisis: https://www.yahoo.com/news/national-chicken-council-asks-fda-015800118.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/national-chicken-council-asks-fda... It also means this is not going to be a huge impact either: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/turkey-export-15000-tonnes-eggs-us-amid-bird-flu-disruptions-2025-02-19/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/turkey-export-15... That import is 240,000,000 eggs if my math is right. If it is spread over a few months we will barely notice it. If it were achieved in a single month, it might be more noticeable. I am reasoning mostly based on significant figures. I did not compare historical lows to production figures to try to get an idea of what actual demand is and I assume there is a bit of a smoothing effect that allows a surplus and shortfall in adjacent months to cancel.
araes 2y ago
Here's a chart of the egg production from the data you found (Jan 2013 to Jan 2025). [1] Added 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order curve fits to give an idea of the general trends in production. [1] https://i.imgur.com/OikRTHL.png https://i.imgur.com/OikRTHL.png
- akutlay 2y ago
  This seems to align with the article. The article states 3 to 5 percent decline after 2021. I see about the same in this graph.

robofanatic 2y ago

> More hens, less income! Layoff some hens

Dban1 2y ago
more layoff, less layegg
- robofanatic 2y ago
  Hire more roosters

ryao 2y ago

Interestingly, the investigation appears to have begun right after egg prices started to drop: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us No one appears to be reporting the drop yet, which is fair since it is not clear the trend will continue as fundamentals have not changed beyond possible imports from Turkey.

joshribakoff 2y ago
5 dozen lucerne eggs is $50 here in SF at Safeway, as of this morny. A few weeks to a month ago, I recall it being $5-$6 for one dozen.
- ryao 2y ago
  The drop is very recent and refers to upstream prices for contracts, which might have not even been delivered to stores yet. I had been watching the contract prices and successfully predicted increases in my local prices based on it, although the increases tended to lag behind the contract pricing changes by a week or more. I had been expecting another increase when the drop occurred so it is unclear to me whether the drop prevented another increase or is something we will see passed to us in the next week or two. That said, Safeway is an expensive store. Shop at Aldi. It is cheaper. Aldi is so much cheaper that you likely could have groceries delivered from it via Instacart and still save money.

KennyBlanken 2y ago

A local discount grocery chain near me hasn't had shortages nor have they inflated prices. Store brand eggs are $6 for 18. This is in an area where groceries are normally quite expensive. Naturally they could have it be a loss leader, but then I would expect them to be curtailing quantities. The shelves are fully stocked every time I'm there. The other chains, all more expensive, have half or third stocked shelves and a dozen eggs is $7-8 and up. The egg "shortage" is manufactured bullshit. There's only a handful of major egg producers and they're clearly in collusion. Just like the shortages that supposedly lasted a while during the pandemic; CEOs were bragging on earnings that they had raised prices more than their costs went up, and they kept them high after costs dropped - they decided to keep them high because people would pay that. Apparently they don't care that a lot of things folks in poverty / low income buy...aren't discretionary spending.

reaperman 2y ago
In Houston we also have eggs for $0.34/each as you do ... but those same eggs were $0.21 each in January. So perhaps your $6 per 18 is the new raised price? Our cheapest eggs have increased in price by 62% in the past 60 days.
- kjkjadksj 2y ago
  It depends on the grocers contracts. Trader joes is famously selling eggs at $3.50 a dozen since they negotiated a good price a while ago.

ccorcos 2y ago

> fake “animal welfare” program designed to reduce overall flock numbers rather than improve hen’s lives. I love examples like this showing how this moral cultural movements are often just propaganda for nefarious purposes. People talk about recycling being pushed by the plastics industry but I’m sure there are more in the environmental side of things.

AftHurrahWinch 2y ago
Did you read the linked evidence that the "animal welfare" program was fake? What part of it did you interpret as fake? What evidence supports your conclusion that this is an example of "propaganda for nefarious purposes"? I agree with the description in the linked document - defendants presented "substantial evidence that grocery stores and other customers demanded animal-welfare standards", companies like McDonald's, Walmart, and Kroger demanded or required the animal welfare standards, the program was developed with input from a "Scientific Advisory Committee" of experts in animal reproductive welfare, and there was pressure from animal-rights groups and consumers for better treatment of hens. https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ilnd.263305/gov.uscourts.ilnd.263305.713.0_5.pdf https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ilnd.26... > For their part, Defendants argued at trial that the UEP Certified Program was a bona fide effort to satisfy customer demand. In Defendants’ view, the UEP Certified Program was a natural response to pressure from animal-welfare groups, buyers, and end consumers. According to Defendants, they felt pressure to make life better for hens. > In that vein, Defendants presented substantial evidence that the grocery stores and other customers demanded animal-welfare standards. So did consumers. And so did animal-rights groups. > For example, before adoption of the UEP Certified Program, Cal-Maine lost McDonald’s as a customer after McDonald’s demanded producers expand the size of cages for their hens. See Defs.’ Ex. 182. And within a few years of the creation of the UEP Certified Program, grocery chains like Walmart and Kroger would purchase eggs only from UEP Certified producers. See Defs.’ Exs. 329, 374, 639. > According to Defendants, they were simply responding to market demand when they implemented the cage-space restrictions in the UEP Certified Program. The jury heard evidence that the UEP Certified Program was a legitimate animal-welfare program. Specifically, Defendants pointed out that the UEP created the standard after following the guidance of a Scientific Advisory Committee. > That Committee consisted of an all-star team. See 11/1/23 Trial Tr., at 3085:25 (Dckt. No. 657) (Armstrong) (“I was very, very pleased. We put our dream team together.”). It was chaired by a leader in the field, Dr. Jeffrey Armstrong, who has degrees in physiology, and specializes in the reproductive physiology of farm animals. See 11/1/23 Trial Tr., at 3074:19-25 (Dckt. No. 657) (Armstrong). Reproductive physiology of farm animals is what it sounds like – how animal reproduction works. Id. at 3075:1-10. > In sum, the jury learned about the UEP Certified program, and about its standards. And the jury heard dueling views about the purpose of the program. > Again, Plaintiffs alleged that the UEP Certified Program was a backdoor way to restrict supply. Plaintiffs told the jury that the program required the birds to have more space. More space equals fewer hens in each cage. And fewer hens means fewer eggs.

bokkies 2y ago

I have 20 hens and 2 roosters (living in a country village where neighbours like the authentic rural vibes) I buy 50kg of feed every 6 weeks for (equivalent)$23. Outside of winter we average 7-12 eggs a day and in winter about 2-4 a day. What we sell covers the cost of feed (except for winter)The birds free range all day and have large compost heaps and worm farms to gorge themselves on. Before moving to the country we had 4 hens in a city garden which worked out to a greater cost per egg due to the lesser free-ranging opportunities but still cheaper than a caged egg from a supermarket. Once you have your own hens you'll never go back to factory eggs!

aaronbaugher 2y ago
True. Also, as someone with 30 hens which will soon be coming into peak spring production, I look forward to selling my extra eggs at current prices, assuming they don't fall soon. It never fails: when egg prices go up, I get family and friends hitting me up to buy some eggs at $3/dozen; and then when the store prices fall below that, I don't hear from them and I'm feeding the extras to my dogs. It's funny how some things (real estate) are supposed to keep going up in price, and it's a disaster that requires government intervention if they don't, while for other things (eggs) just the opposite is true. I suppose it depends on who benefits from each.

ndsipa_pomu 2y ago

One solution would be for customers to boycott the big egg producers and refuse to buy their eggs even when they do flood the market with cheaper ones when they aim to put small producers out of business. However, that does require egg consumers to stick to their guns and only buy from the independants.

kjkjadksj 2y ago

Anyone frequenting more than one grocery store can quickly see its not a supply and demand issue setting prices. A few grocery stores never budged setting prices and charged the same and then the frantic news cycle caused people to buy 4x the amount of eggs they need, causing inventory shortages. And then there are other stores that saw this as an opportunity to raise egg prices to like $13 a dozen. Those eggs basically go unsold. I think at this point the biggest factor in the egg supply crunch is that its so publicized and making people act poorly. As a result we see the effective number of available eggs crash as some of these are marked up and go unsold and some linger in someones fridge for a month before consumption. If everyone just bought their usual load of eggs maybe there wouldn’t even be a supply issue.