8 ms·

Changing My Mind On Microsoft

104 points by bedris 14y ago

SlipperySlope 14y ago
Essentially ... "Nowadays nobody under thirty writes anything on Microsoft developer tools unless they are demented or brain-dead. Firstly the kids out of the colleges know the platform agnostic stuff well. Secondly when half the computers leaving factories either run iOS or Android (that is are smart-phones) nobody sensible will write in a way that does not allow easy porting to these platforms."
- kitsune_ 14y ago
  Great way to insult your audience.
  - pmelendez 14y ago
    Is fine to be angry.. but please try to maintain the discussion in a good level... your comment would be more appreciated without the vulgarities.
    - kitsune_ 14y ago
      You are right. Edited.
      - pmelendez 14y ago
        No problem... how can you edit a post by the way.. I can't see an option for that
- freehunter 14y ago
  Under-thirty checking in as a user of Microsoft developer tools. There is still little out there that can beat C# all-around. There still is no alternative for Visual Basic.NET. XNA is still a quite popular game development framework. Kids out of college know what their college specialized in. This is either Java or Visual Studio, and chances are when they graduate they'll get jobs at a company making corporate desktop software on Windows. The best way to discourage an aspiring programmer is to tell him/her "yeah it works, but it's not cool."
  - diego_moita 14y ago
    Same. I stopped reading the whole article after that sentence.
  - jobu 14y ago
    He's over-generalizing with that statement, but I would definitely agree that most start-ups are using RoR or LAMP, and not anything from Microsoft.
    - topbanana 14y ago
      Most software isn't written at start-ups, of course.
- pjmlp 14y ago
  The guy seems to be living in an alternate universe, alongside offending everyone that brings bread home with Microsoft tools.
dneb7 14y ago
His attack on using developer tools was harsh, but I'm over 30 so it didn't apply :) But seriously, I'm afraid he is close to the truth. As a career Windows programmer, I have great fear for the future after having tried the 2012 preview -- I've never felt so lost on a computer in my life. For my own selfish sake, I keep praying they'll make some changes before final release.
- maayank 14y ago
  move to greener pastures. Install Linux in a VM and start to program some hobby project on it.
  - dneb7 14y ago
    In my case, I sell my own software. So having a market that will buy my software is first priority. Providing support all day is not how I prefer to make a living. (that's fearful me talking) I'd love to know the percentages of independent Windows devs that make a living selling software vs percentage of Linux devs that can make a living selling software. Sure, big companies will employ both, but how does it work out for the small guys? Edit: I will admit Linux and its ecosystem are looking more and more attractive all the time...
    - maayank 14y ago
      You don't have to go full time into it. Just putting some hours in the week to toy with it. Doesn't have to be Linux - can be Mac[1] and Objective-C as well, just diversify yourself for learning & (maybe, future) profit.
- ehosca 14y ago
  try hitting the "windows" key more often :) case in point, hitting the windows key immediately gets you to the tile view where you can start typing the name of program you want to launch and its instantly there. its a bit of a learning curve (a very small one) but once you're over you'll be glad for not having to browse through the Start> All Programs > XXX > yyy mess ...
huggyface 14y ago
All internal computer now run as virtual machines (not desktops) running on two mondo-powerful Linux servers. The virtualization platform is Citrix. Nobody has a functional box under their desk any more....The company has got rid of the desktop computers entirely (sorry Dell and HP) What? How are they accessing these virtual machines? Mind meld? In most cases where companies use VDIs the desktop machines are the standard old Dells and HPs because they actually cost less than "dumb terminals" (aka thin-clients). And that's accepting the questionable notion that VDIs are the future. Nowadays nobody under thirty writes anything on Microsoft developer tools unless they are demented or brain-dead We have been on a hiring binge lately and it is very difficult to find candidates who know anything but Microsoft tools. Sure they might know github, but there is a very substantial part of the workforce that stills crawls into Microsoft's bosom. In general this blog post is completely detached from reality. There is the "startup" culture, of course, where everyone runs an iMac and develops iOS and Ruby/MongoDB apps for their EC2 cluster, and then there's the many magnitudes bigger general computing world that holds zero similarities.
- deleted 14y ago
  [deleted]
- cs702 14y ago
  How are they accessing these virtual machines? Probably with Citrix-compatible thin clients. There are a ton of those out there. ...it is very difficult to find candidates who know anything but Microsoft tools. That may be true in the US and some parts of Western Europe, such as the UK, but what about the rest of the world? The author of the blog post, John Hempton, is a hedge fund manager who works out of Australia but invests worldwide, and he often thinks and writes in terms of global trends. What is your experience trying to hire candidates outside the US?
  - huggyface 14y ago
    Probably with Citrix-compatible thin clients. There are a ton of those out there. Why would you post this reply when I specifically address that in the next two sentences? That may be true in the US and some parts of Western Europe, such as the UK, but what about the rest of the world? India is overwhelmingly Microsoft-centric. Eastern Europe is overwhelmingly Microsoft-centric. Much of Russia is very Microsoft-centric. But nonetheless your oddly defensive argument (know the author?) sounds suspiciously like the "oh yeah, they're big in Germany" retort. But anyways what I am replying to is what I see as a immediately ridiculous claim that people under 30 don't know Microsoft, when the overwhelming proof says otherwise. The author of the blog post, John Hempton, is a hedge fund manager who works out of Australia but invests worldwide, and he often thinks and writes in terms of global trends This is one of the stranger appeals to authority that I've yet read. When I think "technology trends expert" I don't think "hedge fund manager". That someone invests money gives them zero authority on technology trends. I should add to notice that my business is hedge fund technology, so the circle is kind of complete here.
gitarr 14y ago
I agree with most of the article, but the "The Ubuntu Unity failure" was only a temporary one. The author says it got better, but in reality Unity already overtook Windows' UI and it will overtake Apples UI with one of its next iterations. As a younger (though not that young) developer I have to agree that using MS developer tools is the wrong way of doing things for most new software, not all of them though, it sure has its uses. But I am strongly against proprietary software that only runs on one OS as that will only lose you business. Even the game platform Steam seems to have gotten to that point, a Linux port is on its way.
- dneb7 14y ago
  The great thing about propietary software and one OS (Windows specifically, OS X too though) is people using those operating systems expect to pay for their software. I'd love to come out with a Linux version of my software, but I'd then be competing with 10 free versions, and worse, a mindset that expects everything to be free. I gotta eat!
  - freehunter 14y ago
    This is the same issue with mobile development that the author seems to be pushing everyone towards. Your app might really be worth $50, but guess what... you'll be selling it for $0.99 or you won't be selling it at all.
  - dman 14y ago
    Before you classify a whole community of users as cheapskates look at the data - http://www.inatux.com/?r=humble-indie-bundle-shows-gnu-linux-gaming-statistics http://www.inatux.com/?r=humble-indie-bundle-shows-gnu-linux...
    - dneb7 14y ago
      Thanks for that -- a bit surprising really (current stats show Linux users out giving the other two). Is that because they are more willing to pay for software as Linux goes mainstream, or desperate for games? (honest question)
powertower 14y ago
> My personal gripe was how poorly Microsoft thought about and handled security issues. My Linux computer is as far as I know virus free. He is comparing Windows 95 to Ubuntu 11.04 (if you follow the link in that sentence)! > They [devs] did not bother developing for other platforms because those platforms were economically irrelevant and the Microsoft developer tools worked. Then he doesn't even make the connection to virus writers targeting Windows between 199x-200x. > Windows security issues are everywhere and it did not need to be so. Sorry, but that's mostly due to the desktop market size and Windows' share of it. Everything after Windows XP had security at its core. Blame the users who are clueless, that are emailing viruses to all their contacts, download Trojans and warez with backdoors, etc. And again, he is comparing decades old MS OSs to latest versions of Linux and OS X. > Nowadays nobody under thirty writes anything on Microsoft developer tools unless they are demented or brain-dead. Completely false statement.
- archangel_one 14y ago
  > > Windows security issues are everywhere and it did not need to be so. > Sorry, but that's mostly due to the desktop market size and Windows' share of it. No, it's not. It's mostly due to Microsoft ignoring security for years because it wasn't important to them. They didn't have to have everyone running as root by default in all versions of Windows before Vista (AFAIK in XP Home you can't actually set up restricted users). They didn't have to have lots of open ports offering things like RPC to the world. They didn't have to have all files executable by default, based solely off the hidden part of the filename in AnnaKournikova.jpg.exe. There are now supposed to be 300M Android devices worldwide, which is within an order of magnitude of Windows' numbers 10 years ago, and you don't see Android phones being compromised remotely within fifteen minutes of being connected to a network. There's no equivalent of Blaster or Sasser or anything close to that level. It's partly due to Windows' market share that it got targeted so heavily, but those opportunities wouldn't have been there if they hadn't ignored security for so long.
  - powertower 14y ago
    I think you've missed the point on multiple fronts... > and you don't see Android phones being compromised remotely within fifteen minutes of being connected to a network. Again, why do you (and others) keep comparing today's Linux/Android/OS X OS with a 10-15 year old Windows OS. Windows security has been at its core since after XP, and by all knowledgeable accounts is just as good as Linux's ... as long as you know how to use it / deal with it. Today 95% of the problem is clueless Windows admins, and bad user decisions. As far as my own experience goes, I've ran Windows 3.1, 95, 98, 2000, XP, Vista, and all the rest never having been compromised. So it is possible at least. What you're doing is the same when people complain about IE 6 vs. the latest version of Chrome... IE6 came out in 2001, and at that time was the most standards-compliant and feature full of all the browsers on the market (well, except for IE 5.5 for MacOS). > They didn't have to have everyone running as root by default in all versions of Windows before Vista (AFAIK in XP Home you can't actually set up restricted users). They didn't have to have lots of open ports offering things like RPC to the world. They didn't have to have all files executable by default, based solely off the hidden part of the filename in AnnaKournikova.jpg.exe. Of course they had to do all that. The Windows users back then were generally not very savvy and anything that got in their way was a disaster waiting to happen. Also it was a different time. Even today most Windows home users don't even understand the file-system with it's drives, devices, directories, subs, and files. And you wanted them to understand user security and how it plays with applications that they ran? No. > but those opportunities wouldn't have been there if they hadn't ignored security for so long. I guess they should have gotten a time machine to the future to pull all that work and knowledge back to the past. Windows XP should have been based off Windows 7. My point is that what is possible today, was not possible 10, 15, or 20 years ago both from a tech and user point of view... Just because someone can do OS security good today, dosn't mean you can blame someone else for not doing it good decades ago.
tiernano 14y ago
> Nowadays nobody under thirty writes anything on Microsoft developer tools unless they are demented or brain-dead. Hmmm.... i am 29, i write C# and .NET for a living... there are a few lads in the office that are .NET Dev, under 30... I must be in a black hole then...
- selter01 14y ago
  or brain-dead
  - bstewartnyc 14y ago
    How does one know?
- IanDrake 14y ago
  Or making better money compared to your peers.
RyanMcGreal 14y ago
I made the decision to jump ship from Microsoft developer products about five years ago. I could already see the writing on the wall. I swapped the remaining proprietary tools I was using on Windows XP over to open source alternatives and jumped from VB6 and .NET over to Python. Then, when it was time to replace my PC, I installed Ubuntu 8.10 instead of Vista. Never looked back.
cs702 14y ago
Whether one agrees or not with the facts and reasoning of the author (a successful hedge-fund manager with a widely followed blog), this blog post is important in and of itself because of what it represents: a tectonic shift in the business community's perception of Microsoft. The business community is now openly doubting the future relevance of the Windows platform!
- brador 14y ago
  What else can run those business softwares? Not just Excel, but the legacy stuff. So long as they need it they'll pay. And, unfortunately, business needs whatever is backwards compatible with Windows XP.
  - Tloewald 14y ago
    So did you read the article? Your "points" are addressed quite thoroughly.
  - jiggy2011 14y ago
    I wonder what would happen if some company decided to throw a lot of money at the Wine Project and release some enterprise platform based on Linux that boasted full compatibility with old Windows desktop software?
- bryanlarsen 14y ago
  No, this is historically very typical for Microsoft. Windows ME sucked. Windows XP was great. Windows Vista sucked. Windows 7 was great. At least that was the perception. Reality is more nuanced, of course. And business is very conservative, they never upgrade immediately. For business, the alternative to Windows 8 is Windows 7 or Windows XP. It isn't OS X or Linux or Android. Microsoft does better if they switch to 8, but they don't lose if they don't.
  - Tloewald 14y ago
    I agree that Microsoft has several chances to get Windows 8 (I.e. the tablet plus computer OS) right, so this is just strike 1. That said, Windows is already a minority computing platform (in terms of new devices sold) so perhaps it cannot be as complacent as it has been in the past. If Windows 8 flops monumentally, when Windows 9 ships in 2014 we may all be docking our pads or phones to a keyboard and/or 2160p wallscreen to use virtualized Windows (when we have to) running legacy software and ten year old microsoft licenses.
fingerprinter 14y ago
> Nowadays nobody under thirty writes anything on Microsoft developer tools unless they are demented or brain-dead. I see most people saying he is wrong here, though I can't think why. Are there people who thing A. writing software for windows? B. are targeting the windows phone? C. deploying to a cloud (private or public) using Windows servers? If you are targeting a phone, it is most def either iOS or Android, probably both. If MS, a distant third (and at that point you'll probably be using PhoneGap, Titanium or HTML5). The number of people actively developing new desktop apps for Windows has to be tiny. Maybe even smaller than tiny. And if you are deploying to anything other than Ubuntu, you're crazy (and potentially fiscally irresponsible...BizSpark not withstanding). I get that some people might be using the dev tools, though I would wager (no numbers on this, just gut) that the number of MS Web Devs is far, far fewer than the same open source web devs (PHP, Ruby, Python, NodeJS, Clojure etc). So, I don't get why people say he is off base. Frankly, the only people I can see still using MS stuff are the big corporates. IMO, MS is riding the long tail into obscurity. Though, with their financials, it would still be a long, long tail.
- jgeralnik 14y ago
  (Anecdotal counterpoint) For the vast majority of the students at my university, visual studio is the reach-to solution for any problem. They would much rather figure out how to write ASP.NET because visual studio is "awesome" than go around running node.js (what's that?) from a command line.
  - skrebbel 14y ago
    Yeah, but many of those are going to be the lazy and uninfluential engineers anyway. I'm more interested in why people who do look further than the most obvious option would or would not choose .NET.
  - spamizbad 14y ago
    Anecdotal counterpoint to your counterpoint - I saw the same thing 10 years ago when I was in school (Comp-Sci students gobbling up Visual Studio). It seems the more things change the more they stay the same... Despite this: -Qualified .NET developers continue to be difficult to find. Also, they make slightly less money than their Java counter-parts for reasons I don't fully understand. -The 00's are regarded as Microsoft's "lost decade" -Microsoft's tools gained little traction among startups... although MS-based ones do exist. The most notable being StackExcahnge however that was created by industry veterans not out-of-college whippersnappers. Don't count on computer science students to create Microsoft's future. Many will drop the major for something easier.
steve8918 14y ago
I read Bronte Capital all the time. He is a hedge fund manager in Australia, and it very good at sniffing out fraudulent stocks or short-worthy stocks and shorting them. I'm not too confident in his ability to assess technology though, and I think he may be a bit premature on this MSFT call. I do believe that Windows 8 is a mistake made out of desperation. Given that the change in interface will confuse a lot of people, I think enterprise will be wary of making the switch because of all the massive retraining it will require. Any type of little change in enterprise environments will always require retraining, so I think enterprise adoption will be very slow to adopt. Maybe MSFT will wake up and change the interface back and have some sort of switch to change back-and-forth before it ships a final version though.
- mcguire 14y ago
  * Prediction: this will wind up with a lower corporate take up rate than Vista (ie next to none).* * Prediction 2: this will accelerate, rather than slow down, the rate at which enterprises take their enterprise specific software into platform independent programs* * Prediction 3: by stuffing this up Microsoft has just about lost its bet on moving the retail computer market into docking cloud computers. Apple will do this. And they will do it by stealth.* Unfortunately, Microsoft seems to have survived Vista experience without too much injury. And having had some experience with enterprise platform movements, accelerating a "glacial" speed is still pretty slow. And finally, I still have doubts about Apple's capability and interest in the general "retail computer market". (Although I could be wrong about that.)
b0 14y ago
I think the guy's opinion is in line with the "popular internet opinion" but as usual that doesn't really match reality. I deal with a lot of small-medium businesses in the UK, and the reality is as follows: Chunks of VBA plumbing between Project, Excel, Word, Outlook powering lots of businesses, humming away on 2-3 year old Dell desktops under dusty desks in offices, written by people who don't understand or give a shit about "the cloud", "features" and "touch". A few of these places have a "server" (another dell wedged in a corner) or a few "servers" (3-4 dells or HP's possibly with exchange wedged under a desk and managed by a 3rd party). Most of this junk runs on hodge-podges of Windows XP, Vista and 7 with the odd Windows 2003 server. There are a few bespoke applications floating around but they are mainly knocked up in Access or VB6 and there are a couple of ASP.Net WebForms on internal servers with SQL Server or SQL Express. A couple of people have iPads (usually execs). Everyone has one or two phones. Work phones are mainly Android and Windows phones (CE and 7.5). Personal phones are all pretty much iPhones or Nokia feature phones. A few things you don't see: * Linux. Anywhere. Apart from a few of the cheaper organisations hosting it and their POP3 on a £2.99 a month hosting plan. They don't even know that as their "web design" company deals with all that. * Office 365. People just don't trust it or complain it's too expensive or don't know it exists. * Mac desktops or laptops. Never seen a single one, apart from one running Windows. * Amazon or EC2. That's where we get our books from... * Google apps. Nope not one. That's the real world and they'll quite happily buy Windows 8 and use it as they have for the last N versions.
jiggy2011 14y ago
The "nobody under 30 writes MS" statement is obviously false at it's core but perhaps it means something slightly different? I imagine most of the under-30 devs working on MS software are being hired by established companies to work on enterprise type software or for consultancies building websites using ASP.net etc. What about people under 30 who are starting their own businesses from scratch? For example startups, they tend to be using stuff like Ruby/Python/JS etc. So the question is , what happens when the old guard start to retire? How many will stick with MS because that is what they have used to that point , or will there be interest in switching to newer tools to build newer systems?
- kenjackson 14y ago
  What about people under 30 who are starting their own businesses from scratch? For example startups, they tend to be using stuff like Ruby/Python/JS etc. As someone who was under 30 during Microsoft's heyday (90s) I can say that most developers under 30 then also didn't use MS tools. Borland tools ruled the roost until VC6 and VB6 (around '98). And most young developers out of school back then knew Unix, not Windows. My point is that it's a myth that there existed some time when all young developers used MS tools. In fact I'd argue that in terms of mindshare MS devtools are near their all-time high in popularity now -- it's that the Windows OS isn't as popular as it once was among the under-30 crowd.
- jmcqk6 14y ago
  I'm in a startup that uses C# and ruby, ASP.NET MVC, and PostgreSQL. All software we right has to pass tests on windows and linux (we'll add os x when we get an os x computer). I know we're not conventional, but we feel like these are the best tools. Anything else is just an argument from popularity and isn't worth our time.
skrebbel 14y ago
> Nowadays nobody under thirty writes anything on Microsoft developer tools unless they are demented or brain-dead. I'm 29 now, switched to mostly doing C# two years ago, and I love it. Its mix of pragmatism, familiarity and modern constructs is unparalleled, and no other truly modern language has this good IDE support. The only thing I don't love about it is the vendor lock-in, but in reality this is a smaller problem for many applications than it seems.
- skrebbel 14y ago
  Self-reply here: naturally, none of this means that the author is wrong on the big picture. I wouldn't be surprised if MS indeed is very much dying. Sad, cause I like their dev tools.
- jmcqk6 14y ago
  Yeah, the author is apparently unaware that C# is one of the few truly multi-platform languages, which runs on Android, iPhone, OS X, Linux, windows of course, and whatever other platform the mono people have since added. I don't even get the complaint about vendor lock-in. What does using C# lock you into (especially compared to the use of other languages)? Sure, it's possible to use C# in such a way that you're stuck with microsoft tech, but it's not mandated that this is the case.
  - giulianob 14y ago
    It can be a bit of an effort though to get your code to run on multiple platforms w/ C#. Mono is awesome but it's not perfect by any means.
    - irahul 14y ago
      > Mono is awesome but it's not perfect by any means. If by perfect, you mean doesn't implement whole of .net, then yes. For me, this is good enough http://www.mono-project.com/Compatibility http://www.mono-project.com/Compatibility I am not looking to play catch-up with MS's implementation(good to see mono mentioned WPF as no plans to implement) What I don't like about .net in general is it's still catching up on package and dependency management.
stcredzero 14y ago
> In the late 1990s Windows developed huge market power. Whilst not strictly a monopoly the company had plenty of monopoly characteristics. Sure you could buy a Macintosh - but that market was so small that people did not develop software for Macs and hence Macs were for people who did not need a wide range of software. So is this, in addition to careful attention to typography, the explanation for why Macs were big with designers? (Many designers do the vast majority of their work in a handful of programs, and one in particular.)
RandallBrown 14y ago
Platform agnostic tools have hardly done anything on the desktop or mobile. If you're writing a mac app without Cocoa or a Windows app without .NET (or other various Microsoft technologies) you're going to have a bad time. Python and Ruby might be first class languages on the web, but they're never going to be on the desktop/mobile. (Yes I know about things like RubyMotion) No devs under 30 work on Microsoft stuff? Even if you take that to mean "No dev under 30 wants to work on Microsoft stuff", that is ridiculous.
sixothree 14y ago
How can I say this gently.. Windows 8 looks like ass. I don't know a single person running it today. Things do not look good for Microsoft in this release cycle. I don't think the following one will be any better.
varelse 14y ago
Say what you want about Microsoft, and acknowledging the past decade has been a real disappointment, I wouldn't count them out just yet... If I compare Microsoft's handling of the OEM PC industry of the 1990s to Google's handling of the Android ecosystem, the latter is utterly laughable in comparison cough Nexus 7 Screen issues cough. That alone is reason enough for me to think they could return. They just need the right leadership. And if you think such a transition is impossible, compare the Apple of today to the Apple before Steve Jobs returned...
ybother 14y ago
Wait, so he's saying that he's moving from MSFT to AAPL because AAPL has better lock-in? Personally, I'm staying with MSFT because MSFT has already learned the follies of relying on lock-in and is moving on where AAPL is repeating MSFT of the 90's mistakes.
Patient0 14y ago
To my mind, Microsoft ought to be putting all of their corporate weight behind Mono. CLR, F#, C# are all technically superior to JVM, Scala and Java IMHO and many others. But what holds alot of people back from .Net in the enterprise is that they want Linux in the server room, not Windows. If Microsoft really put their weight behind Mono then I think lots of enterprise customers would ditch Java in favour of .Net
geon 14y ago
> Nowadays nobody under thirty writes anything on Microsoft developer tools unless they are demented or brain-dead The gamedev community is very MS centered. There are a few people doing handheld stuff, or homebrew console hacking, but the majority use Windows and Direct X. A lot of people use C#, or even develop for the Xbox 360.

104 points by bedris 14y ago

Essentially ... "Nowadays nobody under thirty writes anything on Microsoft developer tools unless they are demented or brain-dead. Firstly the kids out of the colleges know the platform agnostic stuff well. Secondly when half the computers leaving factories either run iOS or Android (that is are smart-phones) nobody sensible will write in a way that does not allow easy porting to these platforms."

kitsune_ 14y ago
Great way to insult your audience.
- pmelendez 14y ago
  Is fine to be angry.. but please try to maintain the discussion in a good level... your comment would be more appreciated without the vulgarities.
  - kitsune_ 14y ago
    You are right. Edited.
    - pmelendez 14y ago
      No problem... how can you edit a post by the way.. I can't see an option for that
freehunter 14y ago
Under-thirty checking in as a user of Microsoft developer tools. There is still little out there that can beat C# all-around. There still is no alternative for Visual Basic.NET. XNA is still a quite popular game development framework. Kids out of college know what their college specialized in. This is either Java or Visual Studio, and chances are when they graduate they'll get jobs at a company making corporate desktop software on Windows. The best way to discourage an aspiring programmer is to tell him/her "yeah it works, but it's not cool."
- diego_moita 14y ago
  Same. I stopped reading the whole article after that sentence.
- jobu 14y ago
  He's over-generalizing with that statement, but I would definitely agree that most start-ups are using RoR or LAMP, and not anything from Microsoft.
  - topbanana 14y ago
    Most software isn't written at start-ups, of course.
pjmlp 14y ago
The guy seems to be living in an alternate universe, alongside offending everyone that brings bread home with Microsoft tools.

dneb7 14y ago

His attack on using developer tools was harsh, but I'm over 30 so it didn't apply :) But seriously, I'm afraid he is close to the truth. As a career Windows programmer, I have great fear for the future after having tried the 2012 preview -- I've never felt so lost on a computer in my life. For my own selfish sake, I keep praying they'll make some changes before final release.

maayank 14y ago
move to greener pastures. Install Linux in a VM and start to program some hobby project on it.
- dneb7 14y ago
  In my case, I sell my own software. So having a market that will buy my software is first priority. Providing support all day is not how I prefer to make a living. (that's fearful me talking) I'd love to know the percentages of independent Windows devs that make a living selling software vs percentage of Linux devs that can make a living selling software. Sure, big companies will employ both, but how does it work out for the small guys? Edit: I will admit Linux and its ecosystem are looking more and more attractive all the time...
  - maayank 14y ago
    You don't have to go full time into it. Just putting some hours in the week to toy with it. Doesn't have to be Linux - can be Mac[1] and Objective-C as well, just diversify yourself for learning & (maybe, future) profit.
ehosca 14y ago
try hitting the "windows" key more often :) case in point, hitting the windows key immediately gets you to the tile view where you can start typing the name of program you want to launch and its instantly there. its a bit of a learning curve (a very small one) but once you're over you'll be glad for not having to browse through the Start> All Programs > XXX > yyy mess ...

huggyface 14y ago

All internal computer now run as virtual machines (not desktops) running on two mondo-powerful Linux servers. The virtualization platform is Citrix. Nobody has a functional box under their desk any more....The company has got rid of the desktop computers entirely (sorry Dell and HP) What? How are they accessing these virtual machines? Mind meld? In most cases where companies use VDIs the desktop machines are the standard old Dells and HPs because they actually cost less than "dumb terminals" (aka thin-clients). And that's accepting the questionable notion that VDIs are the future. Nowadays nobody under thirty writes anything on Microsoft developer tools unless they are demented or brain-dead We have been on a hiring binge lately and it is very difficult to find candidates who know anything but Microsoft tools. Sure they might know github, but there is a very substantial part of the workforce that stills crawls into Microsoft's bosom. In general this blog post is completely detached from reality. There is the "startup" culture, of course, where everyone runs an iMac and develops iOS and Ruby/MongoDB apps for their EC2 cluster, and then there's the many magnitudes bigger general computing world that holds zero similarities.

deleted 14y ago
[deleted]
cs702 14y ago
How are they accessing these virtual machines? Probably with Citrix-compatible thin clients. There are a ton of those out there. ...it is very difficult to find candidates who know anything but Microsoft tools. That may be true in the US and some parts of Western Europe, such as the UK, but what about the rest of the world? The author of the blog post, John Hempton, is a hedge fund manager who works out of Australia but invests worldwide, and he often thinks and writes in terms of global trends. What is your experience trying to hire candidates outside the US?
- huggyface 14y ago
  Probably with Citrix-compatible thin clients. There are a ton of those out there. Why would you post this reply when I specifically address that in the next two sentences? That may be true in the US and some parts of Western Europe, such as the UK, but what about the rest of the world? India is overwhelmingly Microsoft-centric. Eastern Europe is overwhelmingly Microsoft-centric. Much of Russia is very Microsoft-centric. But nonetheless your oddly defensive argument (know the author?) sounds suspiciously like the "oh yeah, they're big in Germany" retort. But anyways what I am replying to is what I see as a immediately ridiculous claim that people under 30 don't know Microsoft, when the overwhelming proof says otherwise. The author of the blog post, John Hempton, is a hedge fund manager who works out of Australia but invests worldwide, and he often thinks and writes in terms of global trends This is one of the stranger appeals to authority that I've yet read. When I think "technology trends expert" I don't think "hedge fund manager". That someone invests money gives them zero authority on technology trends. I should add to notice that my business is hedge fund technology, so the circle is kind of complete here.

gitarr 14y ago

I agree with most of the article, but the "The Ubuntu Unity failure" was only a temporary one. The author says it got better, but in reality Unity already overtook Windows' UI and it will overtake Apples UI with one of its next iterations. As a younger (though not that young) developer I have to agree that using MS developer tools is the wrong way of doing things for most new software, not all of them though, it sure has its uses. But I am strongly against proprietary software that only runs on one OS as that will only lose you business. Even the game platform Steam seems to have gotten to that point, a Linux port is on its way.

dneb7 14y ago
The great thing about propietary software and one OS (Windows specifically, OS X too though) is people using those operating systems expect to pay for their software. I'd love to come out with a Linux version of my software, but I'd then be competing with 10 free versions, and worse, a mindset that expects everything to be free. I gotta eat!
- freehunter 14y ago
  This is the same issue with mobile development that the author seems to be pushing everyone towards. Your app might really be worth $50, but guess what... you'll be selling it for $0.99 or you won't be selling it at all.
- dman 14y ago
  Before you classify a whole community of users as cheapskates look at the data - http://www.inatux.com/?r=humble-indie-bundle-shows-gnu-linux-gaming-statistics http://www.inatux.com/?r=humble-indie-bundle-shows-gnu-linux...
  - dneb7 14y ago
    Thanks for that -- a bit surprising really (current stats show Linux users out giving the other two). Is that because they are more willing to pay for software as Linux goes mainstream, or desperate for games? (honest question)

powertower 14y ago

> My personal gripe was how poorly Microsoft thought about and handled security issues. My Linux computer is as far as I know virus free. He is comparing Windows 95 to Ubuntu 11.04 (if you follow the link in that sentence)! > They [devs] did not bother developing for other platforms because those platforms were economically irrelevant and the Microsoft developer tools worked. Then he doesn't even make the connection to virus writers targeting Windows between 199x-200x. > Windows security issues are everywhere and it did not need to be so. Sorry, but that's mostly due to the desktop market size and Windows' share of it. Everything after Windows XP had security at its core. Blame the users who are clueless, that are emailing viruses to all their contacts, download Trojans and warez with backdoors, etc. And again, he is comparing decades old MS OSs to latest versions of Linux and OS X. > Nowadays nobody under thirty writes anything on Microsoft developer tools unless they are demented or brain-dead. Completely false statement.

archangel_one 14y ago
> > Windows security issues are everywhere and it did not need to be so. > Sorry, but that's mostly due to the desktop market size and Windows' share of it. No, it's not. It's mostly due to Microsoft ignoring security for years because it wasn't important to them. They didn't have to have everyone running as root by default in all versions of Windows before Vista (AFAIK in XP Home you can't actually set up restricted users). They didn't have to have lots of open ports offering things like RPC to the world. They didn't have to have all files executable by default, based solely off the hidden part of the filename in AnnaKournikova.jpg.exe. There are now supposed to be 300M Android devices worldwide, which is within an order of magnitude of Windows' numbers 10 years ago, and you don't see Android phones being compromised remotely within fifteen minutes of being connected to a network. There's no equivalent of Blaster or Sasser or anything close to that level. It's partly due to Windows' market share that it got targeted so heavily, but those opportunities wouldn't have been there if they hadn't ignored security for so long.
- powertower 14y ago
  I think you've missed the point on multiple fronts... > and you don't see Android phones being compromised remotely within fifteen minutes of being connected to a network. Again, why do you (and others) keep comparing today's Linux/Android/OS X OS with a 10-15 year old Windows OS. Windows security has been at its core since after XP, and by all knowledgeable accounts is just as good as Linux's ... as long as you know how to use it / deal with it. Today 95% of the problem is clueless Windows admins, and bad user decisions. As far as my own experience goes, I've ran Windows 3.1, 95, 98, 2000, XP, Vista, and all the rest never having been compromised. So it is possible at least. What you're doing is the same when people complain about IE 6 vs. the latest version of Chrome... IE6 came out in 2001, and at that time was the most standards-compliant and feature full of all the browsers on the market (well, except for IE 5.5 for MacOS). > They didn't have to have everyone running as root by default in all versions of Windows before Vista (AFAIK in XP Home you can't actually set up restricted users). They didn't have to have lots of open ports offering things like RPC to the world. They didn't have to have all files executable by default, based solely off the hidden part of the filename in AnnaKournikova.jpg.exe. Of course they had to do all that. The Windows users back then were generally not very savvy and anything that got in their way was a disaster waiting to happen. Also it was a different time. Even today most Windows home users don't even understand the file-system with it's drives, devices, directories, subs, and files. And you wanted them to understand user security and how it plays with applications that they ran? No. > but those opportunities wouldn't have been there if they hadn't ignored security for so long. I guess they should have gotten a time machine to the future to pull all that work and knowledge back to the past. Windows XP should have been based off Windows 7. My point is that what is possible today, was not possible 10, 15, or 20 years ago both from a tech and user point of view... Just because someone can do OS security good today, dosn't mean you can blame someone else for not doing it good decades ago.

tiernano 14y ago

> Nowadays nobody under thirty writes anything on Microsoft developer tools unless they are demented or brain-dead. Hmmm.... i am 29, i write C# and .NET for a living... there are a few lads in the office that are .NET Dev, under 30... I must be in a black hole then...

selter01 14y ago
or brain-dead
- bstewartnyc 14y ago
  How does one know?
IanDrake 14y ago
Or making better money compared to your peers.

RyanMcGreal 14y ago

I made the decision to jump ship from Microsoft developer products about five years ago. I could already see the writing on the wall. I swapped the remaining proprietary tools I was using on Windows XP over to open source alternatives and jumped from VB6 and .NET over to Python. Then, when it was time to replace my PC, I installed Ubuntu 8.10 instead of Vista. Never looked back.

cs702 14y ago

Whether one agrees or not with the facts and reasoning of the author (a successful hedge-fund manager with a widely followed blog), this blog post is important in and of itself because of what it represents: a tectonic shift in the business community's perception of Microsoft. The business community is now openly doubting the future relevance of the Windows platform!

brador 14y ago
What else can run those business softwares? Not just Excel, but the legacy stuff. So long as they need it they'll pay. And, unfortunately, business needs whatever is backwards compatible with Windows XP.
- Tloewald 14y ago
  So did you read the article? Your "points" are addressed quite thoroughly.
- jiggy2011 14y ago
  I wonder what would happen if some company decided to throw a lot of money at the Wine Project and release some enterprise platform based on Linux that boasted full compatibility with old Windows desktop software?
bryanlarsen 14y ago
No, this is historically very typical for Microsoft. Windows ME sucked. Windows XP was great. Windows Vista sucked. Windows 7 was great. At least that was the perception. Reality is more nuanced, of course. And business is very conservative, they never upgrade immediately. For business, the alternative to Windows 8 is Windows 7 or Windows XP. It isn't OS X or Linux or Android. Microsoft does better if they switch to 8, but they don't lose if they don't.
- Tloewald 14y ago
  I agree that Microsoft has several chances to get Windows 8 (I.e. the tablet plus computer OS) right, so this is just strike 1. That said, Windows is already a minority computing platform (in terms of new devices sold) so perhaps it cannot be as complacent as it has been in the past. If Windows 8 flops monumentally, when Windows 9 ships in 2014 we may all be docking our pads or phones to a keyboard and/or 2160p wallscreen to use virtualized Windows (when we have to) running legacy software and ten year old microsoft licenses.

fingerprinter 14y ago

> Nowadays nobody under thirty writes anything on Microsoft developer tools unless they are demented or brain-dead. I see most people saying he is wrong here, though I can't think why. Are there people who thing A. writing software for windows? B. are targeting the windows phone? C. deploying to a cloud (private or public) using Windows servers? If you are targeting a phone, it is most def either iOS or Android, probably both. If MS, a distant third (and at that point you'll probably be using PhoneGap, Titanium or HTML5). The number of people actively developing new desktop apps for Windows has to be tiny. Maybe even smaller than tiny. And if you are deploying to anything other than Ubuntu, you're crazy (and potentially fiscally irresponsible...BizSpark not withstanding). I get that some people might be using the dev tools, though I would wager (no numbers on this, just gut) that the number of MS Web Devs is far, far fewer than the same open source web devs (PHP, Ruby, Python, NodeJS, Clojure etc). So, I don't get why people say he is off base. Frankly, the only people I can see still using MS stuff are the big corporates. IMO, MS is riding the long tail into obscurity. Though, with their financials, it would still be a long, long tail.

jgeralnik 14y ago
(Anecdotal counterpoint) For the vast majority of the students at my university, visual studio is the reach-to solution for any problem. They would much rather figure out how to write ASP.NET because visual studio is "awesome" than go around running node.js (what's that?) from a command line.
- skrebbel 14y ago
  Yeah, but many of those are going to be the lazy and uninfluential engineers anyway. I'm more interested in why people who do look further than the most obvious option would or would not choose .NET.
- spamizbad 14y ago
  Anecdotal counterpoint to your counterpoint - I saw the same thing 10 years ago when I was in school (Comp-Sci students gobbling up Visual Studio). It seems the more things change the more they stay the same... Despite this: -Qualified .NET developers continue to be difficult to find. Also, they make slightly less money than their Java counter-parts for reasons I don't fully understand. -The 00's are regarded as Microsoft's "lost decade" -Microsoft's tools gained little traction among startups... although MS-based ones do exist. The most notable being StackExcahnge however that was created by industry veterans not out-of-college whippersnappers. Don't count on computer science students to create Microsoft's future. Many will drop the major for something easier.

steve8918 14y ago

I read Bronte Capital all the time. He is a hedge fund manager in Australia, and it very good at sniffing out fraudulent stocks or short-worthy stocks and shorting them. I'm not too confident in his ability to assess technology though, and I think he may be a bit premature on this MSFT call. I do believe that Windows 8 is a mistake made out of desperation. Given that the change in interface will confuse a lot of people, I think enterprise will be wary of making the switch because of all the massive retraining it will require. Any type of little change in enterprise environments will always require retraining, so I think enterprise adoption will be very slow to adopt. Maybe MSFT will wake up and change the interface back and have some sort of switch to change back-and-forth before it ships a final version though.

mcguire 14y ago
* Prediction: this will wind up with a lower corporate take up rate than Vista (ie next to none).* * Prediction 2: this will accelerate, rather than slow down, the rate at which enterprises take their enterprise specific software into platform independent programs* * Prediction 3: by stuffing this up Microsoft has just about lost its bet on moving the retail computer market into docking cloud computers. Apple will do this. And they will do it by stealth.* Unfortunately, Microsoft seems to have survived Vista experience without too much injury. And having had some experience with enterprise platform movements, accelerating a "glacial" speed is still pretty slow. And finally, I still have doubts about Apple's capability and interest in the general "retail computer market". (Although I could be wrong about that.)

b0 14y ago

I think the guy's opinion is in line with the "popular internet opinion" but as usual that doesn't really match reality. I deal with a lot of small-medium businesses in the UK, and the reality is as follows: Chunks of VBA plumbing between Project, Excel, Word, Outlook powering lots of businesses, humming away on 2-3 year old Dell desktops under dusty desks in offices, written by people who don't understand or give a shit about "the cloud", "features" and "touch". A few of these places have a "server" (another dell wedged in a corner) or a few "servers" (3-4 dells or HP's possibly with exchange wedged under a desk and managed by a 3rd party). Most of this junk runs on hodge-podges of Windows XP, Vista and 7 with the odd Windows 2003 server. There are a few bespoke applications floating around but they are mainly knocked up in Access or VB6 and there are a couple of ASP.Net WebForms on internal servers with SQL Server or SQL Express. A couple of people have iPads (usually execs). Everyone has one or two phones. Work phones are mainly Android and Windows phones (CE and 7.5). Personal phones are all pretty much iPhones or Nokia feature phones. A few things you don't see: * Linux. Anywhere. Apart from a few of the cheaper organisations hosting it and their POP3 on a £2.99 a month hosting plan. They don't even know that as their "web design" company deals with all that. * Office 365. People just don't trust it or complain it's too expensive or don't know it exists. * Mac desktops or laptops. Never seen a single one, apart from one running Windows. * Amazon or EC2. That's where we get our books from... * Google apps. Nope not one. That's the real world and they'll quite happily buy Windows 8 and use it as they have for the last N versions.

jiggy2011 14y ago

The "nobody under 30 writes MS" statement is obviously false at it's core but perhaps it means something slightly different? I imagine most of the under-30 devs working on MS software are being hired by established companies to work on enterprise type software or for consultancies building websites using ASP.net etc. What about people under 30 who are starting their own businesses from scratch? For example startups, they tend to be using stuff like Ruby/Python/JS etc. So the question is , what happens when the old guard start to retire? How many will stick with MS because that is what they have used to that point , or will there be interest in switching to newer tools to build newer systems?

kenjackson 14y ago
What about people under 30 who are starting their own businesses from scratch? For example startups, they tend to be using stuff like Ruby/Python/JS etc. As someone who was under 30 during Microsoft's heyday (90s) I can say that most developers under 30 then also didn't use MS tools. Borland tools ruled the roost until VC6 and VB6 (around '98). And most young developers out of school back then knew Unix, not Windows. My point is that it's a myth that there existed some time when all young developers used MS tools. In fact I'd argue that in terms of mindshare MS devtools are near their all-time high in popularity now -- it's that the Windows OS isn't as popular as it once was among the under-30 crowd.
jmcqk6 14y ago
I'm in a startup that uses C# and ruby, ASP.NET MVC, and PostgreSQL. All software we right has to pass tests on windows and linux (we'll add os x when we get an os x computer). I know we're not conventional, but we feel like these are the best tools. Anything else is just an argument from popularity and isn't worth our time.

skrebbel 14y ago

> Nowadays nobody under thirty writes anything on Microsoft developer tools unless they are demented or brain-dead. I'm 29 now, switched to mostly doing C# two years ago, and I love it. Its mix of pragmatism, familiarity and modern constructs is unparalleled, and no other truly modern language has this good IDE support. The only thing I don't love about it is the vendor lock-in, but in reality this is a smaller problem for many applications than it seems.

skrebbel 14y ago
Self-reply here: naturally, none of this means that the author is wrong on the big picture. I wouldn't be surprised if MS indeed is very much dying. Sad, cause I like their dev tools.
jmcqk6 14y ago
Yeah, the author is apparently unaware that C# is one of the few truly multi-platform languages, which runs on Android, iPhone, OS X, Linux, windows of course, and whatever other platform the mono people have since added. I don't even get the complaint about vendor lock-in. What does using C# lock you into (especially compared to the use of other languages)? Sure, it's possible to use C# in such a way that you're stuck with microsoft tech, but it's not mandated that this is the case.
- giulianob 14y ago
  It can be a bit of an effort though to get your code to run on multiple platforms w/ C#. Mono is awesome but it's not perfect by any means.
  - irahul 14y ago
    > Mono is awesome but it's not perfect by any means. If by perfect, you mean doesn't implement whole of .net, then yes. For me, this is good enough http://www.mono-project.com/Compatibility http://www.mono-project.com/Compatibility I am not looking to play catch-up with MS's implementation(good to see mono mentioned WPF as no plans to implement) What I don't like about .net in general is it's still catching up on package and dependency management.

stcredzero 14y ago

> In the late 1990s Windows developed huge market power. Whilst not strictly a monopoly the company had plenty of monopoly characteristics. Sure you could buy a Macintosh - but that market was so small that people did not develop software for Macs and hence Macs were for people who did not need a wide range of software. So is this, in addition to careful attention to typography, the explanation for why Macs were big with designers? (Many designers do the vast majority of their work in a handful of programs, and one in particular.)

RandallBrown 14y ago

Platform agnostic tools have hardly done anything on the desktop or mobile. If you're writing a mac app without Cocoa or a Windows app without .NET (or other various Microsoft technologies) you're going to have a bad time. Python and Ruby might be first class languages on the web, but they're never going to be on the desktop/mobile. (Yes I know about things like RubyMotion) No devs under 30 work on Microsoft stuff? Even if you take that to mean "No dev under 30 wants to work on Microsoft stuff", that is ridiculous.

sixothree 14y ago

How can I say this gently.. Windows 8 looks like ass. I don't know a single person running it today. Things do not look good for Microsoft in this release cycle. I don't think the following one will be any better.

varelse 14y ago

Say what you want about Microsoft, and acknowledging the past decade has been a real disappointment, I wouldn't count them out just yet... If I compare Microsoft's handling of the OEM PC industry of the 1990s to Google's handling of the Android ecosystem, the latter is utterly laughable in comparison cough Nexus 7 Screen issues cough. That alone is reason enough for me to think they could return. They just need the right leadership. And if you think such a transition is impossible, compare the Apple of today to the Apple before Steve Jobs returned...

ybother 14y ago

Wait, so he's saying that he's moving from MSFT to AAPL because AAPL has better lock-in? Personally, I'm staying with MSFT because MSFT has already learned the follies of relying on lock-in and is moving on where AAPL is repeating MSFT of the 90's mistakes.

Patient0 14y ago

To my mind, Microsoft ought to be putting all of their corporate weight behind Mono. CLR, F#, C# are all technically superior to JVM, Scala and Java IMHO and many others. But what holds alot of people back from .Net in the enterprise is that they want Linux in the server room, not Windows. If Microsoft really put their weight behind Mono then I think lots of enterprise customers would ditch Java in favour of .Net

geon 14y ago

> Nowadays nobody under thirty writes anything on Microsoft developer tools unless they are demented or brain-dead The gamedev community is very MS centered. There are a few people doing handheld stuff, or homebrew console hacking, but the majority use Windows and Direct X. A lot of people use C#, or even develop for the Xbox 360.