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As the news media and twitterverse peddled the whole "crime-ridden SF" angle, I felt myself getting drawn into the same topic and agreeing with numerous friends

by mztwo 3y ago

As the news media and twitterverse peddled the whole "crime-ridden SF" angle, I felt myself getting drawn into the same topic and agreeing with numerous friends on how much the city has declined. This is a good reminder of how we gravitate towards powerful emotional narratives, which in the moment can feel absolutely true despite an utter lack of supporting facts on an individual murder case. I hope this brings some measure of peace and closure for his family and friends.

7e 3y ago
So, SF isn’t crime ridden now? Did someone not just die? Is murder only a crime when it’s a complete stranger?
spacemadness 3y ago
Is HN in the twitterverse? Because I sat back and watched people do the same thing here.
- mrguyorama 3y ago
  The biggest lie people on HN tell themselves is that they are "special" and not just normal people like the rest of us.
- phone8675309 3y ago
  It was gross to watch too, and the backpedaling from some now is sad.
asynchronous 3y ago
I don’t understand why it can’t be both: SF is degenerating when it comes to random crime AND this murder wasn’t by some random thug. I remember reading blog after blog on HN about people moving out of SF specifically for what the city had become.
- asveikau 3y ago
  The nature of the random crime is very different from violent crime. People were saying violent crime is the issue, and here was the proof, the turning point. All demonstrably false. You point out the falsity and people call you naive and say it's the crime stats that are wrong, not their take. Their version is reality. As a San Francisco resident, I don't want us wasting time, energy and resources going after the wrong problems.
- klyrs 3y ago
  Gravity is a force that attracts two massive objects. While that statement is true, it is completely irrelevant to the Bob Lee case. People using this tragedy as an excuse to flog their favorite scapegoat is disappointing.
  - bilbo0s 3y ago
    But kind of expected don't you think? That's why we call them scapegoats right? That's what people who scapegoat others do. Logic, Rational Thought, Dispassionate Analysis, these are all good. And one day, all humans will hopefully practice these disciplines as a matter of course. But right now, the vast majority of people are controlled by their emotions. What do they want to be true? What do they wish to be true? Well, that's what becomes "true". At least, true to them.
- hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
  The issue is not that "it can't be both". I personally think SF does have a serious crime problem that is not being properly addressed. But all the comments, tweets, etc immediately came out blaming SF government and SF's general crime problem specifically for Bob Lee's death. Like they couldn't just wait a teeny bit before forming an opinion after more facts were known? Especially from the crowd that prides itself on "logic" and "data driven" decisions.
  - deleted 3y ago
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- deleted 3y ago
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- tsgagnon 3y ago
  I don’t understand why it can’t be both: SF is degenerating when it comes to random crime AND this murder wasn’t by some random thug. Always important to reflect on whether stances like "SF is degenerating" are based on a rational analysis of what is actually happening, versus a more emotional response to stories that might be more like the topic of this post, just with less visibility into the exact circumstances of what happened. Not saying that's likely happening here, but the clear response to the original news was that this was the perfect example of what SF is becoming. How often does that assumption happen?
  - tsunamifury 3y ago
    You can appeal to facts and being as rational as you want, but people leave because of how they feel.
    - bilbo0s 3y ago
      I'm not the person you're responding to but I believe the point is that people leaving, doesn't make Bay Area degeneration a fact. Only actual Bay Area degeneration, can make Bay Area degeneration a fact. We need to know who is moving, who is coming in, the economics of the region, geological suitability to population demands, needs of the larger state and nation as it relates to the region. And on and on and on. A blog post about a guy who didn't like the dog poo in the Mission is not nearly enough data to draw the conclusions most of us were drawing. That includes myself. But after the glaring intellectual lapses I engaged in subsequent to the Asian mass shootings and the killing of the crypto exec, the inner me is attempting to reassert rational order by demanding intellectual honesty and logic. All of which is now firmly demonstrating to me that facts don't care about feelings, and will gleefully bite you in the ass if they don't align with the world view or narrative that you're emotionally comfortable with.
      - stanfordkid 3y ago
        Just because an economist wrote a utilitarian calculus saying "this is what makes a city great" doesn't make it so. The logic they use to define "good" ultimately has, at it's deepest core a morality. The morality that "longevity is good" "per capita GDP good", "average happiness good" ... is not an objective fact and has no bearing on how human beings measure greatness. The anesthetized bug-brained western homo-economicus would probably be laughed at by a Spartan warrior ... is one objectively a "better" human than the other?
- lern_too_spel 3y ago
  It is both, but these are unrelated facts.
- virgildotcodes 3y ago
  The linked article specifically shows that violent crime in SF is at an all time low, and lower than most other comparably sized cities.
  - P_I_Staker 3y ago
    Didn't SF used to be freaking scary prior to blowing up? I've heard people talk about it like they do Miami, Baltimore, Detroit, ect. An undesirable place that washed up people ended up, riddled with crime and violence. I think I might be getting the story wrong, but I recall hearing there used to be much more crime.
    - wombatpm 3y ago
      I never thought the issue was violent crime. More like the constant low-level theft and public urination from the homeless, drug addicts, and mentally ill.
    - xyzelement 3y ago
      I don't understand why Miami is ln your list. It seems clean and thriving.
      - microtherion 3y ago
        According to Wikipedia, Miami has nearly twice the murder rate of San Francisco, and more than three times the rate of New York City: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_crime_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...
        js2 3y ago
        11.23 per 100K. Tusla has a higher murder rate. You're about as likely to die in an automobile crash nation wide (11.1 per 100K), and in Florida, more likely (15.4 per 100K). https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7126a1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7126a1.htm https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state... Lies, damned lies, and statistics. We're all afraid of all the wrong things.
- sshconnection 3y ago
  Love how HN loves data driven analysis, except when analyzing SF violent crime rates.
- welder 3y ago
  Here's a good explanation of why perceived crime increased at the same time as total crime decreased in SF with COVID. TLDR: the number of crimes decreased, but the total number of people out-and-about decreased even more. The result is if you went out-and-about you were more likely to experience a crime. https://sfstandard.com/perspectives/perspective-why-your-chances-of-being-a-crime-victim-in-s-f-may-be-up-even-when-crime-is-down/ https://sfstandard.com/perspectives/perspective-why-your-cha...
  - selfmodruntime 3y ago
    Also, not every crime is reported. Not everything bad is a crime. Swathes of homeless living in tents is not a crime. So is being screamed at by a drugged maniac. You also won‘t see people openly shooting up or defecating on the street in these stats.
- digitaltrees 3y ago
  Because one topic, homelessness and its contribution to crime is irrelevant to the topic at hand, the tragic murder of a person. Yet there was a rush to link them. Why discuss them together when doing so implies a causal connection between them?
PragmaticPulp 3y ago
> This is a good reminder of how we gravitate towards powerful emotional narratives, which in the moment can feel absolutely true despite an utter lack of supporting facts on an individual murder case. It seems equally weird to me that so many people are taking this anecdote as a sort of proof that San Francisco does not have a crime problem. Focusing on individual anecdotes and swinging from one conclusion to another is the real problem. The source of this unfortunate murder shouldn’t dictate your entire view of a city’s crime problem.
- timmytokyo 3y ago
  Every major city has a crime problem and always has. The question is whether the situation is being blown out of proportion by sensationalist media or people with axes to grind. For a group that claims to be so rational, much of the HN crowd commenting here does seem to be averse to relying upon actual data.
  - v0idzer0 3y ago
    Every major (and minor) city has crime. Not a crime problem. A crime problem means the rate is too high for the population size.
  - ipaddr 3y ago
    Not every city has the same crime problems. Stealing in Tokyo will get you thrown out of the country. Stealing in SF is acceptable and will get you praise.
  - renlo 3y ago
    Anecdotally whenever I hear a SF resident say the "crime problem is overblown", they almost always live in the nicer areas where there's virtually no crime. I lived on the border of the Tenderloin years ago, and saw things that I've never seen anywhere else. I knew a guy who was murdered in the Polk Gulch, I had my car broken into (and rummaged through multiple times after I started leaving the door unlocked), I had to physically assert myself with my friend to not seem like a target when a man brandishing a metal rod was eyeing us suspiciously, I stepped on a used hyperdermic needle which pierced my shoe but luckily did not prick me ... this is only what comes to mind at the moment as a write this, but I'm sure there's more incidents I experienced that I could conjure after some reflection. Is my experience anecdotal? Sure, but I lived it. Your experience with the city has likely been a much better one, free from such disturbing experiences. Does that mean I didn't experience this though? Or that it is "overblown"? tldr; I lived in SF but now happily live in New York.
klyrs 3y ago
Ironically, when the killer is alleged to be another tech exec known to the victim, people here still prefer to talk about "crime-ridden SF" instead.
- phone8675309 3y ago
  Not surprising. You're on a forum full of techies and tech execs. It's like the people in Hollywood incredulous that #metoo movement was a thing because "they didn't know anyone like that!" until their coworkers and friends were outed. Same here - techies shocked, _shocked_ that one of "their own" could commit a crime like this. Easier for them to talk about crime in general than lay blame at the feet on one of "their own".
  - nemothekid 3y ago
    What was surprising to me is that everyone seemed to move in mass that this was some "random stabbing". Random murders are exceptionally rare. What bothered me is this was another high profile murder of someone involved in crypto. There were a dozen murders that fit the bill that happened last year, and seemed way more likely. The guy was stabbed in Rincon Hill. I don't consider that a crime ridden area.
  - overrun11 3y ago
    Are you suggesting that committing murder and violent crime is pervasive among tech executives?
    - klyrs 3y ago
      Great question! How do tech executives compare to the SF general population this year, in murders per 100k?
    - datavirtue 3y ago
      Check the Forbes 30 under 30 list. They do a good job of identifying psychopaths.
    - 4dayworkweek4u 3y ago
kyleblarson 3y ago
Two things can be true at the same time: SF has declined immensely and the killer in this case was not a criminal homeless addict.
hintymad 3y ago
As much as I don't like SF's progressive politics, the data showed that the recalled SF DA Boudin didn't charge less on murders or narcotics: https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/We-obtained-never-before-seen-data-on-Chesa-16592626.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/We-obtained-never-.... Boudin did charge less on theft and burglary.
uhandHn 3y ago
[flagged]
kornhole 3y ago
I never believed the original assumption in stories. I am skeptical of what I read. Random murders are very rare. He was running a crypto company. Crypto space has plenty of shady things and people.
- throitallaway 3y ago
  [flagged]
- bilbo0s 3y ago
  You would think the mass shootings of Asians would have taught us a lesson. But we all continue to jump the gun. I think more generally, people are mob parrots at heart. We go with the crowd. If we see a guy killed and someone yells, "Crime Wave!!!" Well, then we all start chanting "Crime Wave!!!" The average person, even on HN as we saw, can really not be trusted to give dispassionate analysis. In the vast majority of instances, we just parrot whatever narrative or world view we feel most emotionally comfortable with. I struggle mightily against it and still fall into that cesspool of intellectual laziness from time to time. It's just human. But you're right. We need to do better. Much better.
- Jackpillar 3y ago
  Same. The minute I read he was wandering about at 230am on a weekday I knew something was fishy. Despite how much reactionary tough-on-crime dorks want you to feel - homeless people rarely commit random murders of non homeless people. Then like you said - the minute I found out he was in crypto I was 100% convinced he was murdered by someone he knew. Not in any conspiracy view like the feds did it because his company was "too dangerous" to FedNow or something. But because a significant portion of people in crypto are unhinged.
- tootie 3y ago
  I got downvoted at the time, but Bob was heavily involved in launching Cash app which was exposed a few weeks ago as having inflated numbers to investors and been grossly negligent in policing their users many of whom were using the platform for crime. It's entirely possible that Lee was either mixed up with bad actors and/or pissed off some bad actors by providing details for the story. Obviously this is speculation too but it seems at least as plausible as it being truly random.
smsm42 3y ago
So, the lesson here is not to jump to global far-reaching conclusion based on one single case, and the reason why it is so important is because of this one single case from which we can totally make a global far-reaching conclusions...
Convolutional 3y ago
After the murder, I had to read scores of comments like this ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35456168 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35456168 ) about the homeless, need for more law enforcement (although the US already incarcerates more of its population than any industrialized country) etc. I had to read scores of tech bros in the professional-managerial class whinge about the poor, about black lives matter and how this was due to "progressivism". Turns out the suspected murderer is a guy who describes himself as an "entrepreneur" on Linkedin and has a Crunchbase listing where he is described as being in executive management. Maybe we should have law enforcement target entrepreneurs as opposed to people made homeless by the enormous wealth disparity on display in San Francisco.
- briantakita 3y ago
  I'm personally not into incarcerating mass amounts of people, as it only centralizes a prison industrial complex. Rather, one glaring issue is dangerous drugs showing up on our streets & the conditions that lead to this usage. In the comment you linked to, I noted Kensington Ave in Philadelphia, where there are videos of many people on hard drugs stooped over. Many people, who would otherwise have happier lives are now dealing with addiction & living on the streets. Note that the reason why drugs are showing up on the streets are not random acts of mere petty criminals but involve people in domestic government & foreign governments. Rick Ross & the crack epidemic detail the history of how intelligence agencies create the conditions of mass addiction. While some, including me, think this drug problem is an example of the hypocrisy of NeoLiberalism...I also think it's a centuries old playbook of wreaking havoc on whole populations of people by introducing vices such as drugs. The Opium Wars & what lead to the Opium Wars is an example. Side note, I would like there to be a graph based form of communication that can better express the context of statements. It's too easy to take a couple of sentences on a forum out of context.
  - thethethethe 3y ago
    > Many people, who would otherwise have happier lives are now dealing with addiction & living on the streets. I don't know about you but I don't know anyone who fell into drug use and homelessness who had happy lives. I think people who are homeless and or addicted to drugs are addicted to drugs because there lives are not good. If you improve economic and social conditions for people, drug abuse becomes less of a problem because people do not need to cope with difficulty in their life in the same way.
dpedu 3y ago
This is a bad take and itself an emotional narrative. For one, the person arrested is a suspect and not in any way proven or admitted to be the killer. Putting that aside, it's still a bad take because you're ignoring the many other incidents that took place on the same day, such as the SF Fire Commissioner who was beaten with a metal pipe by random drug users outside his house.
- anigbrowl 3y ago
  the SF Fire Commissioner who was beaten with a metal pipe by random drug users outside his house Former fire commissioner, not outside his house (actually a parent's home), and what makes you so sure it was random? A man was arrested for that, who alleges that the victim initiated the confrontation by pepper spraying him. I'm quite interested in that case as I have relevant personal knowledge about people involved, but for that reason I'm reluctant to draw any conclusions about it for now.
  - dpedu 3y ago
    I said random because I haven't heard of anything linking the attacker and the commissioner beyond that the attacker was homeless and camped near the house. > who alleges that the victim initiated the confrontation by pepper spraying him. The reports I have seen state that the attacker claims the victim sprayed him with bear mace, not pepper spray. Regardless of this - and other minute points that don't matter - the subsequent footage of the attack shows the commissioner turning his back to and running away from the attacker, who quickly gives chase. It doesn't matter who started it; there's no justification for continuing the assault in such a situation.
areoform 3y ago
In the future, it may be helpful to remember that murder and violence — especially sexual violence — are oddly intimate things, In 2011, in incidents of murder for which the relationships of murder victims and offenders were known, 54.3 percent were killed by someone they knew (acquaintance, neighbor, friend, boyfriend, etc.); 24.8 percent of victims were slain by family members. The relationship of murder victims and offenders was unknown in 44.1 percent of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter incidents in 2011. https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded/expanded-homicide-data https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-... In short, people were killed by strangers 11.7% of the time. For 88.3% of murders (where the relationship between the killer and the victim was known), it was someone the victim knew. The statistics are similar for sexual violence. For juveniles and children who experience sexual violence, it is a family member of acquaintance 93% of the time. This percentage drops for adults to ~80%, i.e. in 80% of cases the victim will know the perpetrator. https://www.rainn.org/statistics/perpetrators-sexual-violence https://www.rainn.org/statistics/perpetrators-sexual-violenc... These crimes are very different from a mugging or robbery. It is easy to imagine why if you replay the situation in your mind — looking someone in the eyes as you stab them, up close takes a lot emotionally. It is a very intense situation. Almost everyone — if driven to it — will steal out of desperation and hunger, but very few can look people in the eye, walk up to them and stick a knife in them. There is a strong psychological aversion to hurting other human beings built into most of us and it's what keeps society mostly safe.
- kyleashipley 3y ago
  Nit, but I think that 24.8% is a subset of the 54.3%, not additive - i.e. “family members” are included in the category of “people you know.” (Confirmed with the pie chart in your first link.)
  - areoform 3y ago
    Great nit! I'll update it to the actual state i.e. only 11.7% of people are killed by strangers. 88.3% knew their killers in some capacity.
timcavel 3y ago
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maratbn 3y ago
The emotional narrative that was initially gravitated toward is in fact correct. Had there not been the entrenched environment of lawlessness in SF the perpetrator would not have even attempted his attack. And had the victim not been a prominent person the SF police would not have bothered to keep looking. The only mistake the murderer made here is he underestimated the public outcry that forced the police and the DA to keep investigating in fear of theirs and the city's reputation.
1vuio0pswjnm7 3y ago
Maybe it's time to stop paying attention to what Elon Musk and other so-called "tech industry" people publish on the internet. These are not journalists and it is not "news". It's garbage. Maybe it's time to wake up. One can only imagine what these two "tech industry" people were arguing about before one killed the other. The media reports make them sound like such wonderfully nice people, drinking and driving around SF at 2am on a Tuesday, one of them liking stay out to the wee hours on weeknights the other liking to keep butterfly and switch blades in his car. One of them apparently believed an "emotional narrative" about SF being in decline; that's allegedly why he moved to Miami. Here is the Expand IT Inc. website, listing the survivor's colleagues. https://web.archive.org/web/20230413142515if_/https://www.expand-its.com/ https://web.archive.org/web/20230413142515if_/https://www.ex... All these references to "Cash App" in the articles about this crime yet none explaining its main use has been amongst criminals.
- 1vuio0pswjnm7 3y ago
  Correction: It was a Monday night. It's doubtful moving to Miami could have much to do with safety as Miami has higher crime rates than SF. More likely the reason was political.
smrtinsert 3y ago
Is there a word for people who think they're logical but mostly driven by emotion? Like an emotional dk effect?
- cocacola1 3y ago
  Rationalist?

by mztwo 3y ago

7e 3y ago

So, SF isn’t crime ridden now? Did someone not just die? Is murder only a crime when it’s a complete stranger?

spacemadness 3y ago

Is HN in the twitterverse? Because I sat back and watched people do the same thing here.

mrguyorama 3y ago
The biggest lie people on HN tell themselves is that they are "special" and not just normal people like the rest of us.
phone8675309 3y ago
It was gross to watch too, and the backpedaling from some now is sad.

asynchronous 3y ago

I don’t understand why it can’t be both: SF is degenerating when it comes to random crime AND this murder wasn’t by some random thug. I remember reading blog after blog on HN about people moving out of SF specifically for what the city had become.

asveikau 3y ago
The nature of the random crime is very different from violent crime. People were saying violent crime is the issue, and here was the proof, the turning point. All demonstrably false. You point out the falsity and people call you naive and say it's the crime stats that are wrong, not their take. Their version is reality. As a San Francisco resident, I don't want us wasting time, energy and resources going after the wrong problems.
klyrs 3y ago
Gravity is a force that attracts two massive objects. While that statement is true, it is completely irrelevant to the Bob Lee case. People using this tragedy as an excuse to flog their favorite scapegoat is disappointing.
- bilbo0s 3y ago
  But kind of expected don't you think? That's why we call them scapegoats right? That's what people who scapegoat others do. Logic, Rational Thought, Dispassionate Analysis, these are all good. And one day, all humans will hopefully practice these disciplines as a matter of course. But right now, the vast majority of people are controlled by their emotions. What do they want to be true? What do they wish to be true? Well, that's what becomes "true". At least, true to them.
hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
The issue is not that "it can't be both". I personally think SF does have a serious crime problem that is not being properly addressed. But all the comments, tweets, etc immediately came out blaming SF government and SF's general crime problem specifically for Bob Lee's death. Like they couldn't just wait a teeny bit before forming an opinion after more facts were known? Especially from the crowd that prides itself on "logic" and "data driven" decisions.
- deleted 3y ago
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tsgagnon 3y ago
I don’t understand why it can’t be both: SF is degenerating when it comes to random crime AND this murder wasn’t by some random thug. Always important to reflect on whether stances like "SF is degenerating" are based on a rational analysis of what is actually happening, versus a more emotional response to stories that might be more like the topic of this post, just with less visibility into the exact circumstances of what happened. Not saying that's likely happening here, but the clear response to the original news was that this was the perfect example of what SF is becoming. How often does that assumption happen?
- tsunamifury 3y ago
  You can appeal to facts and being as rational as you want, but people leave because of how they feel.
  - bilbo0s 3y ago
    I'm not the person you're responding to but I believe the point is that people leaving, doesn't make Bay Area degeneration a fact. Only actual Bay Area degeneration, can make Bay Area degeneration a fact. We need to know who is moving, who is coming in, the economics of the region, geological suitability to population demands, needs of the larger state and nation as it relates to the region. And on and on and on. A blog post about a guy who didn't like the dog poo in the Mission is not nearly enough data to draw the conclusions most of us were drawing. That includes myself. But after the glaring intellectual lapses I engaged in subsequent to the Asian mass shootings and the killing of the crypto exec, the inner me is attempting to reassert rational order by demanding intellectual honesty and logic. All of which is now firmly demonstrating to me that facts don't care about feelings, and will gleefully bite you in the ass if they don't align with the world view or narrative that you're emotionally comfortable with.
    - stanfordkid 3y ago
      Just because an economist wrote a utilitarian calculus saying "this is what makes a city great" doesn't make it so. The logic they use to define "good" ultimately has, at it's deepest core a morality. The morality that "longevity is good" "per capita GDP good", "average happiness good" ... is not an objective fact and has no bearing on how human beings measure greatness. The anesthetized bug-brained western homo-economicus would probably be laughed at by a Spartan warrior ... is one objectively a "better" human than the other?
lern_too_spel 3y ago
It is both, but these are unrelated facts.
virgildotcodes 3y ago
The linked article specifically shows that violent crime in SF is at an all time low, and lower than most other comparably sized cities.
- P_I_Staker 3y ago
  Didn't SF used to be freaking scary prior to blowing up? I've heard people talk about it like they do Miami, Baltimore, Detroit, ect. An undesirable place that washed up people ended up, riddled with crime and violence. I think I might be getting the story wrong, but I recall hearing there used to be much more crime.
  - wombatpm 3y ago
    I never thought the issue was violent crime. More like the constant low-level theft and public urination from the homeless, drug addicts, and mentally ill.
  - xyzelement 3y ago
    I don't understand why Miami is ln your list. It seems clean and thriving.
    - microtherion 3y ago
      According to Wikipedia, Miami has nearly twice the murder rate of San Francisco, and more than three times the rate of New York City: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_crime_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...
      - js2 3y ago
        11.23 per 100K. Tusla has a higher murder rate. You're about as likely to die in an automobile crash nation wide (11.1 per 100K), and in Florida, more likely (15.4 per 100K). https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7126a1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7126a1.htm https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state... Lies, damned lies, and statistics. We're all afraid of all the wrong things.
sshconnection 3y ago
Love how HN loves data driven analysis, except when analyzing SF violent crime rates.
welder 3y ago
Here's a good explanation of why perceived crime increased at the same time as total crime decreased in SF with COVID. TLDR: the number of crimes decreased, but the total number of people out-and-about decreased even more. The result is if you went out-and-about you were more likely to experience a crime. https://sfstandard.com/perspectives/perspective-why-your-chances-of-being-a-crime-victim-in-s-f-may-be-up-even-when-crime-is-down/ https://sfstandard.com/perspectives/perspective-why-your-cha...
- selfmodruntime 3y ago
  Also, not every crime is reported. Not everything bad is a crime. Swathes of homeless living in tents is not a crime. So is being screamed at by a drugged maniac. You also won‘t see people openly shooting up or defecating on the street in these stats.
digitaltrees 3y ago
Because one topic, homelessness and its contribution to crime is irrelevant to the topic at hand, the tragic murder of a person. Yet there was a rush to link them. Why discuss them together when doing so implies a causal connection between them?

PragmaticPulp 3y ago

> This is a good reminder of how we gravitate towards powerful emotional narratives, which in the moment can feel absolutely true despite an utter lack of supporting facts on an individual murder case. It seems equally weird to me that so many people are taking this anecdote as a sort of proof that San Francisco does not have a crime problem. Focusing on individual anecdotes and swinging from one conclusion to another is the real problem. The source of this unfortunate murder shouldn’t dictate your entire view of a city’s crime problem.

timmytokyo 3y ago
Every major city has a crime problem and always has. The question is whether the situation is being blown out of proportion by sensationalist media or people with axes to grind. For a group that claims to be so rational, much of the HN crowd commenting here does seem to be averse to relying upon actual data.
- v0idzer0 3y ago
  Every major (and minor) city has crime. Not a crime problem. A crime problem means the rate is too high for the population size.
- ipaddr 3y ago
  Not every city has the same crime problems. Stealing in Tokyo will get you thrown out of the country. Stealing in SF is acceptable and will get you praise.
- renlo 3y ago
  Anecdotally whenever I hear a SF resident say the "crime problem is overblown", they almost always live in the nicer areas where there's virtually no crime. I lived on the border of the Tenderloin years ago, and saw things that I've never seen anywhere else. I knew a guy who was murdered in the Polk Gulch, I had my car broken into (and rummaged through multiple times after I started leaving the door unlocked), I had to physically assert myself with my friend to not seem like a target when a man brandishing a metal rod was eyeing us suspiciously, I stepped on a used hyperdermic needle which pierced my shoe but luckily did not prick me ... this is only what comes to mind at the moment as a write this, but I'm sure there's more incidents I experienced that I could conjure after some reflection. Is my experience anecdotal? Sure, but I lived it. Your experience with the city has likely been a much better one, free from such disturbing experiences. Does that mean I didn't experience this though? Or that it is "overblown"? tldr; I lived in SF but now happily live in New York.

klyrs 3y ago

Ironically, when the killer is alleged to be another tech exec known to the victim, people here still prefer to talk about "crime-ridden SF" instead.

phone8675309 3y ago
Not surprising. You're on a forum full of techies and tech execs. It's like the people in Hollywood incredulous that #metoo movement was a thing because "they didn't know anyone like that!" until their coworkers and friends were outed. Same here - techies shocked, _shocked_ that one of "their own" could commit a crime like this. Easier for them to talk about crime in general than lay blame at the feet on one of "their own".
- nemothekid 3y ago
  What was surprising to me is that everyone seemed to move in mass that this was some "random stabbing". Random murders are exceptionally rare. What bothered me is this was another high profile murder of someone involved in crypto. There were a dozen murders that fit the bill that happened last year, and seemed way more likely. The guy was stabbed in Rincon Hill. I don't consider that a crime ridden area.
- overrun11 3y ago
  Are you suggesting that committing murder and violent crime is pervasive among tech executives?
  - klyrs 3y ago
    Great question! How do tech executives compare to the SF general population this year, in murders per 100k?
  - datavirtue 3y ago
    Check the Forbes 30 under 30 list. They do a good job of identifying psychopaths.
  - 4dayworkweek4u 3y ago

kyleblarson 3y ago

Two things can be true at the same time: SF has declined immensely and the killer in this case was not a criminal homeless addict.

hintymad 3y ago

As much as I don't like SF's progressive politics, the data showed that the recalled SF DA Boudin didn't charge less on murders or narcotics: https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/We-obtained-never-before-seen-data-on-Chesa-16592626.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/We-obtained-never-.... Boudin did charge less on theft and burglary.

uhandHn 3y ago

[flagged]

kornhole 3y ago

I never believed the original assumption in stories. I am skeptical of what I read. Random murders are very rare. He was running a crypto company. Crypto space has plenty of shady things and people.

throitallaway 3y ago
[flagged]
bilbo0s 3y ago
You would think the mass shootings of Asians would have taught us a lesson. But we all continue to jump the gun. I think more generally, people are mob parrots at heart. We go with the crowd. If we see a guy killed and someone yells, "Crime Wave!!!" Well, then we all start chanting "Crime Wave!!!" The average person, even on HN as we saw, can really not be trusted to give dispassionate analysis. In the vast majority of instances, we just parrot whatever narrative or world view we feel most emotionally comfortable with. I struggle mightily against it and still fall into that cesspool of intellectual laziness from time to time. It's just human. But you're right. We need to do better. Much better.
Jackpillar 3y ago
Same. The minute I read he was wandering about at 230am on a weekday I knew something was fishy. Despite how much reactionary tough-on-crime dorks want you to feel - homeless people rarely commit random murders of non homeless people. Then like you said - the minute I found out he was in crypto I was 100% convinced he was murdered by someone he knew. Not in any conspiracy view like the feds did it because his company was "too dangerous" to FedNow or something. But because a significant portion of people in crypto are unhinged.
tootie 3y ago
I got downvoted at the time, but Bob was heavily involved in launching Cash app which was exposed a few weeks ago as having inflated numbers to investors and been grossly negligent in policing their users many of whom were using the platform for crime. It's entirely possible that Lee was either mixed up with bad actors and/or pissed off some bad actors by providing details for the story. Obviously this is speculation too but it seems at least as plausible as it being truly random.

smsm42 3y ago

So, the lesson here is not to jump to global far-reaching conclusion based on one single case, and the reason why it is so important is because of this one single case from which we can totally make a global far-reaching conclusions...

Convolutional 3y ago

After the murder, I had to read scores of comments like this ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35456168 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35456168 ) about the homeless, need for more law enforcement (although the US already incarcerates more of its population than any industrialized country) etc. I had to read scores of tech bros in the professional-managerial class whinge about the poor, about black lives matter and how this was due to "progressivism". Turns out the suspected murderer is a guy who describes himself as an "entrepreneur" on Linkedin and has a Crunchbase listing where he is described as being in executive management. Maybe we should have law enforcement target entrepreneurs as opposed to people made homeless by the enormous wealth disparity on display in San Francisco.

briantakita 3y ago
I'm personally not into incarcerating mass amounts of people, as it only centralizes a prison industrial complex. Rather, one glaring issue is dangerous drugs showing up on our streets & the conditions that lead to this usage. In the comment you linked to, I noted Kensington Ave in Philadelphia, where there are videos of many people on hard drugs stooped over. Many people, who would otherwise have happier lives are now dealing with addiction & living on the streets. Note that the reason why drugs are showing up on the streets are not random acts of mere petty criminals but involve people in domestic government & foreign governments. Rick Ross & the crack epidemic detail the history of how intelligence agencies create the conditions of mass addiction. While some, including me, think this drug problem is an example of the hypocrisy of NeoLiberalism...I also think it's a centuries old playbook of wreaking havoc on whole populations of people by introducing vices such as drugs. The Opium Wars & what lead to the Opium Wars is an example. Side note, I would like there to be a graph based form of communication that can better express the context of statements. It's too easy to take a couple of sentences on a forum out of context.
- thethethethe 3y ago
  > Many people, who would otherwise have happier lives are now dealing with addiction & living on the streets. I don't know about you but I don't know anyone who fell into drug use and homelessness who had happy lives. I think people who are homeless and or addicted to drugs are addicted to drugs because there lives are not good. If you improve economic and social conditions for people, drug abuse becomes less of a problem because people do not need to cope with difficulty in their life in the same way.

dpedu 3y ago

This is a bad take and itself an emotional narrative. For one, the person arrested is a suspect and not in any way proven or admitted to be the killer. Putting that aside, it's still a bad take because you're ignoring the many other incidents that took place on the same day, such as the SF Fire Commissioner who was beaten with a metal pipe by random drug users outside his house.

anigbrowl 3y ago
the SF Fire Commissioner who was beaten with a metal pipe by random drug users outside his house Former fire commissioner, not outside his house (actually a parent's home), and what makes you so sure it was random? A man was arrested for that, who alleges that the victim initiated the confrontation by pepper spraying him. I'm quite interested in that case as I have relevant personal knowledge about people involved, but for that reason I'm reluctant to draw any conclusions about it for now.
- dpedu 3y ago
  I said random because I haven't heard of anything linking the attacker and the commissioner beyond that the attacker was homeless and camped near the house. > who alleges that the victim initiated the confrontation by pepper spraying him. The reports I have seen state that the attacker claims the victim sprayed him with bear mace, not pepper spray. Regardless of this - and other minute points that don't matter - the subsequent footage of the attack shows the commissioner turning his back to and running away from the attacker, who quickly gives chase. It doesn't matter who started it; there's no justification for continuing the assault in such a situation.

areoform 3y ago

In the future, it may be helpful to remember that murder and violence — especially sexual violence — are oddly intimate things, In 2011, in incidents of murder for which the relationships of murder victims and offenders were known, 54.3 percent were killed by someone they knew (acquaintance, neighbor, friend, boyfriend, etc.); 24.8 percent of victims were slain by family members. The relationship of murder victims and offenders was unknown in 44.1 percent of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter incidents in 2011. https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded/expanded-homicide-data https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-... In short, people were killed by strangers 11.7% of the time. For 88.3% of murders (where the relationship between the killer and the victim was known), it was someone the victim knew. The statistics are similar for sexual violence. For juveniles and children who experience sexual violence, it is a family member of acquaintance 93% of the time. This percentage drops for adults to ~80%, i.e. in 80% of cases the victim will know the perpetrator. https://www.rainn.org/statistics/perpetrators-sexual-violence https://www.rainn.org/statistics/perpetrators-sexual-violenc... These crimes are very different from a mugging or robbery. It is easy to imagine why if you replay the situation in your mind — looking someone in the eyes as you stab them, up close takes a lot emotionally. It is a very intense situation. Almost everyone — if driven to it — will steal out of desperation and hunger, but very few can look people in the eye, walk up to them and stick a knife in them. There is a strong psychological aversion to hurting other human beings built into most of us and it's what keeps society mostly safe.

kyleashipley 3y ago
Nit, but I think that 24.8% is a subset of the 54.3%, not additive - i.e. “family members” are included in the category of “people you know.” (Confirmed with the pie chart in your first link.)
- areoform 3y ago
  Great nit! I'll update it to the actual state i.e. only 11.7% of people are killed by strangers. 88.3% knew their killers in some capacity.

timcavel 3y ago

[dead]

maratbn 3y ago

The emotional narrative that was initially gravitated toward is in fact correct. Had there not been the entrenched environment of lawlessness in SF the perpetrator would not have even attempted his attack. And had the victim not been a prominent person the SF police would not have bothered to keep looking. The only mistake the murderer made here is he underestimated the public outcry that forced the police and the DA to keep investigating in fear of theirs and the city's reputation.

1vuio0pswjnm7 3y ago

Maybe it's time to stop paying attention to what Elon Musk and other so-called "tech industry" people publish on the internet. These are not journalists and it is not "news". It's garbage. Maybe it's time to wake up. One can only imagine what these two "tech industry" people were arguing about before one killed the other. The media reports make them sound like such wonderfully nice people, drinking and driving around SF at 2am on a Tuesday, one of them liking stay out to the wee hours on weeknights the other liking to keep butterfly and switch blades in his car. One of them apparently believed an "emotional narrative" about SF being in decline; that's allegedly why he moved to Miami. Here is the Expand IT Inc. website, listing the survivor's colleagues. https://web.archive.org/web/20230413142515if_/https://www.expand-its.com/ https://web.archive.org/web/20230413142515if_/https://www.ex... All these references to "Cash App" in the articles about this crime yet none explaining its main use has been amongst criminals.

1vuio0pswjnm7 3y ago
Correction: It was a Monday night. It's doubtful moving to Miami could have much to do with safety as Miami has higher crime rates than SF. More likely the reason was political.

smrtinsert 3y ago

Is there a word for people who think they're logical but mostly driven by emotion? Like an emotional dk effect?

cocacola1 3y ago
Rationalist?