7 ms·

Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

27 points by dev_0 4y ago

With China and Russia trying to isolate themselves from the world....Cold War 2.0 is coming I believe the era of growth is over. What are your preparation for low growth era?

0x445442 4y ago
China and Russia isolating themselves? You’ve heard of BRICS right?
- tuatoru 4y ago
  Here is how your BRICS were doing up until 2017.[1] India and China: OK at that point (before Modi and Xi had really started micromanaging, and before Covid hit trade). Brazil, Russia, and South Africa: get a participation certificate and commiserations. The acronym "BRICS" was a western invention in the early 2000s, shorthand for a list of good places to invest. Nothing more. 1. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Annual-GDP-Growth-of-BRICS-Countries_fig1_334611498 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Annual-GDP-Growth-of-BRI...
  - 0x445442 4y ago
    A lot has happened since 2017.
- orwin 4y ago
  Brasil, Russia, India, China, South Africa. Tell me, besides Russia who managed to align with both China and India in some way and is their intermediary (no kidding, Russian diplomacy was top tier before they attacked), which of this country do you think will align with each other against the US? China managed in five years to be hated more than UK and France in Africa (Russia however is very well viewed there, again their diplomacy and PR). Brazil managed to create a pretty good sphere of influence but Bolsonaro by himself massacred that (his recording about abusing underage venezuelan refugees do not help, but the trend was downward before). If i based myself solely on demographic and the concept of demographic dividends, i would be worried for most Brics. Luckily, I've read a bit about hidden migration and i now understand where the wives and sisters of Gulf countries and Singapore 'workers' are send (doing a different kind of 'work'), so i think China will do just fine. Probably the others will too once they fix their political troubles.
  - 0x445442 4y ago
    I wouldn’t be worried for most BRICS. Their coalition is growing because the world sees the hypocrisy of the west. And even the legacy western media is reluctantly capitulating to that fact. https://www.newsweek.com/nearly-90-percent-world-isnt-following-us-ukraine-opinion-1743061 https://www.newsweek.com/nearly-90-percent-world-isnt-follow...
dylanhassinger 4y ago
same as it ever was
version_five 4y ago
> Cold War 2.0 is coming This would be a blessing. I think we can trace most of our problems back to the end of the cold war. If we have some common thing to fight against we stop fighting each other (see Watchmen- ironically though it was about ending the cold war but a level down it works) More realistic is a 1984 style "continuous but meaningless war" that lets the various parties pursue their ideological aims without fear of revolt from inside. Though I have no idea how to prepare for this
- Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
  "I think we can trace most of our problems back to the end of the cold war. If we have some common thing to fight against we stop fighting each other...." That never happened during the Cold War from what I've read, and from what I observed starting in the early 1970s it steadily got worse.
  - nostrademons 4y ago
    Note that the 1970s was a time of detente in the Cold War, so it supports the OPs point. As we started to forget about the Russians, we started to fight each other. The 80s is often held up as a time of renewed national unity, and it corresponds with heightened Cold War fears.
    - Gud 4y ago
      On the other hand, the 60s saw race riots and massive demonstrations against the Vietnam war. Plus the McCarthyism in the 40s and 50s.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
- aliqot 4y ago
  On a more positive note, hell yea here comes another space race!
- scarface74 4y ago
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
drewcoo 4y ago
China and Russia are part of BRICS[1]. That's not isolation. That's half the world's people. And that's the coalition that will soon be the world economy. > Cold War 2.0 is coming I don't think the US can "win" that Cold War, so maybe it shouldn't pick the fight this time. [1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/brics.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/brics.asp
- bee_rider 4y ago
  BRICS is not a coalition, it is just a label for emerging economies that aren't 100% onboard with the US system. China and India aren't in a coalition, in fact their relationship has some rough spots.
ipaddr 4y ago
China and Russia are yesterdays growth stories (China is still at 5%). Look for growth in other places like Brazil which is poised to grow in the next 20 years.
- DenverR 4y ago
  India
  - Bombthecat 4y ago
    Climate change would like to have a word with you
    - pempem 4y ago
      Climate change will have a word with everyone. Investment in infrastructure and climate management might help in a stitch...
      - AstralStorm 4y ago
        While India is building the infrastructure to not starve and drown they will not have sufficient exploitable labor to "grow" as translated into building and manning sweatshops and factories.
- gruez 4y ago
  > Look for growth in other places like Brazil which is poised to grow in the next 20 years. Poised... how? This graph from a recent economist article doesn't inspire much confidence: https://www.economist.com/img/b/400/436/90/media-assets/image/20221022_AMC452.png https://www.economist.com/img/b/400/436/90/media-assets/imag...
- pempem 4y ago
  China has strategically made bets for the last decade and is a major MAJOR investor in many of these 'other places'
shahbaby 4y ago
Bad information is often worse than no information which is why it's better to save your energy/time/resources to deal with circumstances as they unfold instead of trying to prepare for the unknown.
- fabianhjr 4y ago
  Risk assessments and decision rules like Minimax exist. (Saving up energy/time/resources is a specific possible action of many and might or might not be the optimal action)
Mikeb85 4y ago
Technological advancement still means growth, even if it looks different from the growth of the last 30 or so years. Also, wouldn't be a bad time for defence-related startups...
quiltofshadows 4y ago
Putin, Xi, Modi, Biden/Trump are getting older. Generational shift is coming and it is a phase transition. Where it settles, in which attractor basin is the Quintilian dollar question. :) I vote for the ECO revolution.
- dev_0 4y ago
  Xi will last as long as MaoZedong
SapporoChris 4y ago
No. First you must produce compelling evidence that globalization is ending before you can should ask how to deal with such. I don't see the evidence, to many countries have on going interconnected relationships. Before we address something like this, you would need to show evidence that it is happening, such as: Imports and exports are halting for a majority of the countries. Termination of diplomacy and communication between countries. To assist in this, you might consult some definitions of globalism.
- anm89 4y ago
  These are always the most cartoonish viewpoints. How dare you have an opinion! This is the internet! SapporoChris is going to require journal published studies, probably several, before granting you the unbelievable kindness of acknowledging your question.
  - IAmGraydon 4y ago
    Having been a member of HN for 7 years, you should be well aware that we deal in facts and data here, and such things require evidence. If you want to spend your time with those who pull fiction out of thin air and present it as gospel, I would suggest you check out Reddit. It might be more your speed.
    - anm89 4y ago
      > Having been a member of HN for 7 years, you should be well aware that we deal in facts and data here, Could you start with the "facts and data" of where it is specified that there is requirement for "facts and data"? Having been a member here for 7 years, I can assure you that most posts do not contain "facts and data" and there is no requirement or implication of a requirement to post with "facts and data". In fact, a vast majority of everything written here is completely subjective and unsubstantiated. See. I'm not going to prove that with any facts or data at all. I'm just going to assert it. Ironically, you have a variation on breaking one of the actual written post guidelines in this very post: > Please don't post comments saying that HN is turning into Reddit. It's a semi-noob illusion, as old as the hills. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
sp332 4y ago
The future is more human-oriented instead of pursuing profit at the cost of everything else. It will be based on resilience instead of JIT, sustainability instead of extraction. Growth will be slow to zero, but things won't crash so often or so hard either. https://www.marketplace.org/2022/05/02/u-s-trade-representative-katherine-tai-worker-centered-policies/ https://www.marketplace.org/2022/05/02/u-s-trade-representat...
senectus1 4y ago
Green technologies and the de-centrification of energy sources is going to countermand the trend. The work will still grow.
nostromo 4y ago
This only really matters if you live in China or Russia. Everyone else will do just fine or better as manufacturing in China plateaus or declines and Russia’s sphere of influence recedes to its own border. The US will continue to grow modestly but steadily with decent governance, lots of resources, and a growing population.
- givemeethekeys 4y ago
  I keep wondering who'll work in all the factory jobs. How much will the jobs pay and how much will the rest of the people need to be able to make in order to afford Made in America things. Would appreciate insight into this.
  - hyperhopper 4y ago
    We need legislative changes to make that lifestyle sustainable, because at the current rate it will become less and less so. In the long long term, probably will only end with legislation, revolt, or dystopian outcomes.
  - pxue 4y ago
    It's just simply way too expensive to make things in America. We can build all the $B factories we want in the rust belt but shareholders will move it to places like Mexico at the first sign of profit. I'm seeing a real flow of software jobs to mexico too in the coming decades.
    - AstralStorm 4y ago
      Is it expensive, or is it that dollar is just too valuable to people out there? If they don't provide you with labor, (e.g. because they want it for themselves or they do not want to pollute their land) what will you do, raid them?
      - pxue 4y ago
        yes that's one way of looking at globalization, advanced economies export expensive and stable currencies to less advanced parts of the world in exchange for labor. That's the early 20s century model perfected by the Brits. Obviously it didn't last long but at least it made sense.
anm89 4y ago
I would try to avoid such binary narratives. I don't think globalization and growth are done, but they will almost certainly be very different going forward. In the case of the US, I think it's fair to say it will be a very long time before we have the level of globalized supply chains that we had at the end of 2019. I read this article earlier today which I thought provided some pretty insightful answers to this question: https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606 https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will...
c7DJTLrn 4y ago
Brexit too.
dilippkumar 4y ago
Since this is HN, here is a book recommendation: The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization by Peter Zeihan I’m going to add the usual disclaimers here about everything that comes with listening to a guy who has been predicting doom for a decade. He is very entertaining though and he has some unique insights and some unusual data comparisons - it’s fun to read. To be fair, he did predict events in Ukraine a few weeks before they happened [1]. That counts for as much credibility as one can have with a title of “geopolitical strategist” [1] Jump to 7:45 https://youtu.be/UA-jOLF2T4c https://youtu.be/UA-jOLF2T4c
- mysecretaccount 4y ago
  Around February 2022, I consumed every piece of Zeihan-related content I could find online. He is very entertaining but I had to give up on him because he plays a bit fast and loose with facts and makes pretty wild predictions. As an example, early in the Russia-Ukraine war, he claimed that Russia wanted to secure one of the geographical gateways into the country and could be expected to invade Poland and Romania circa this coming winter. He said that these gateways have been historically important for Russia's defense for hundreds of years and that they want to defend them before their population becomes too old to bear enough soldiers to take them. This is exemplary of both the good/bad with Zeihan: - He is entertaining and has unusual takes, as you said. - He tends to have an essentialist worldview: Russia is obsessed with its own topography so it invaded Ukraine, China is isolationist so Xi doesn't care about what goes on in other countries, etc. - He is a bit of a state department shill (probably necessary for his career, he seems to make a good amount from speaking gigs for these people). - He fixates on age demographics and draws many (probably too many) conclusions from them. Big props to him for introducing me to the population pyramid though: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_pyramid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_pyramid - He stopped making this claim around ~summer and I'm sure will never reckon with the fact that he sincerely said he thought Russia would invade a NATO country within a year in early-mid 2022, on multiple podcasts. I have heard him spout too much nonsense for me to listen to consistently at this point but I still check in on him just to hear what he has to say regarding major world events (like the NS1/2 pipeline bombings).
- civilized 4y ago
lordentropy 4y ago
I wish it was just a cold war. It has turned into a real fucking disaster. Despot Putin does not seem to be backing off, and perhaps will destroy all of Ukraine's vital infrastructure no matter the cost. If Ukrainians still stand still, he will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons.
- knewter 4y ago
  "Putin will not hesitate to nuke his neighboring country" I frequently wish people could read their words but with my reactions to them
  - mickdeek86 4y ago
    '...neighboring upwind country..."
jesuscript 4y ago
Why did the west even go to China in the first place? Cheaper labor. China can’t go do what the West does by meta colonizing (economically colonizing) South America, India, Africa and South East Asia because their people need the low wage jobs too. The West will just go elsewhere. If China and Russia don’t want the business, someone else will. And when suddenly those other someones become the growth story, China/Russia will adapt and reprice (as in, they will stop the shenanigans). This will sort itself out. Amoral industries will find the geopolitical jockeying by the growth economy leaders as a liability.
- scarface74 4y ago
  How much do you actually know about manufacturing in China? China is not where comps it’s go for “cheap labor”. Companies aren’t building clothing factories in China.
  - jesuscript 4y ago
    Clothing factories is how it started. They weren’t exactly talking a whole lot of shit as we kept investing in that trade partnership up until they got to this advanced point. So, if this is the end of the line, we simply have to start again from zero in other economies. Start with the Nike sneakers all over again in some other part of the world, and don’t ever let it get so far where they also make your technology.
    - tuatoru 4y ago
      It's been happening for the last seven or eight years in Bangladesh. Now, knowing something about populations of countries, you might ask yourself, why there? Why not Pakistan, Indonesia, the Philippines, or Nigeria? They all are bigger than Bangladesh, and all appear to have better trade links and geography (ports, location, and such). Finding out the answers can deepen your understanding of the world.
      - jesuscript 4y ago
        You guys are port country, direct access to a lot of water and centrally located between trade channels (dead smack in the middle of China and India and other places in the south east). That’s my best guess. Might be a little harder (longer) to ship stuff to and from Pakistan.
cr4nberry 4y ago
> I believe the era of growth is over. What are your preparation for low growth era? I doubt it. It's a shame to see China isolating itself, but at the end of the day the manufacturing could just be moved somewhere else like India or Vietnam. Economically speaking, isolation is never the way forward, and China will likely fall further behind. Any sort of aggression on their part will only ensure that this happens If anything, the extreme differences between China/Russia and the US will just bring the US (and the Anglosphere) closer together. I'm convinced the west has reached a stage of post war society where it's understood that it's better to grow up rather than out What will be interesting to see is how Putin handles the current situation, considering they're losing ground and poorly prepared Ofc I'm speculating here, and my position is highly US-centric
aaron695 4y ago
accountofme 4y ago
I guess it depends on how you look at it... For me this is like a river with a big rock in the way... The water will find it's way around with other means...
publicola1990 4y ago
Its more like US trying to isolate itself from Russia and China (for seemingly different reasons), don't you think? It is as if US wants to rollback globalisation, because they feel it is starting to disadvantage them. But for many companies Apple for example, a globalised world is better, in both ways in terms of efficient supply chains and getting access to markets. International trade is a magic bullet in economics.
pg_bot 4y ago
It's highly unlikely that we will enter a sustained period of low growth. It is too advantageous for all parties to continue interconnecting economies. Any country that chooses to isolate themselves from the rest of the world will find that it is much more difficult to be self sufficient than they imagined.
yogthos 4y ago
That is not what's happening at all. China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, and lots of other countries are currently building an alternative to western economy. These countries are where majority of the world population lives.
- defrost 4y ago
  Absolutely. China has a very public long standing policy of engaing in global economic colonialism via its "one belt | one road | silk road 2" strategy. China having less(?) to do with the USofA in no way translates to China withdrawing from the world - rumour has it there are many other countries other than the US.
  - uejfiweun 4y ago
    The US is the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. I don't think China will be able to simply swap out the US for Kazakhstan and these other 1B1R countries and throw in the towel. In fact, I just recently read that China is overhauling the entire program due to various failures: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-belt-road-debt-11663961638 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-belt-road-debt-1166396163...
    - defrost 4y ago
      > The US is the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. For now, imagine what a Trump second term might achieve, particularly given the real life example of Truss in the UK: > The past six weeks have been not so much a cautionary tale as much as a textbook example of what happens when political ideologues are let off the leash, allowed to shut out anyone with opposing views and given the keys to the kingdom ( Rob Harris, Sydney Morning Herald ) Your linked WSJ article indicates that China's plans are coming to roost sooner rather than later: > ... have left countries struggling to repay their debts to China. as this is pretty much the point of economic colonialism, just as the British once ended up with Hong Kong as an outpost for a century so too will China end up with a ring of outposts spanning the globe for a century forward, ideal for those distributed ground stations for its space programs coupled with duty free ports for trade.
bombcar 4y ago
I guess there are two questions: 1. Will we have hyperinflation at some point? 2. Will we have all-out war? Everything else can be answered by the standard "don't spend more than you make, invest in a broad-market index, keep your reserves available". But if you have those things covered, you may want to consider thinking about what you could do to mitigate 1 and/or 2. You don't have to go bunker-prepper, but you can do things that could help in those cases (and even in boring emergencies like hurricanes) - for example, change your eating habits to always have 2 weeks-6 months of food on stock, rotating through it, things like that.
- jesuscript 4y ago
  Doubt any side is uncomfortable or desperate enough for war. The comfortable don’t fight. They do, however, demo their weight. There’s at least one or two month blockade somewhere in our future where trade halts between the super powers, where we all glimpse into the economic center of the earth that we know certainly exists. Economic morbid curiosity. Then we’ll all sit back and go “woah what a world, economic death does exist, US is a big deal, so is China, so are all these other countries, let’s diplomatically settle this, we’ve had our exploratory mushroom trip in the desert, as all people need to, you know, find themselves”. But no war, we’re all far too weird for that now at this point. Wait, I just realized I rhymed. We did the same nonsense with the nukes during the Cold War. There’s something magical about human natures curiosity for “we just wanted to see what it would be like, but we would never …”.
  - bombcar 4y ago
    Sounds a lot like what was said before a world war; things can get ugly way faster than we're used to - and it may not even be a war directly involving the US or any particular country. Russia and Ukraine has already caused massive secondary effects throughout the world, and that's a "relatively" minor conflict.
lolive 4y ago
Globalisation is all about transportation means being cheap and efficient. That will end with our understanding that it breaks the natural rules. (Or the depletion of cheap oil, whichever comes first) What you call the end of globalisation is the end of U.S dominance. [which is definitely NOT what I experience in Europe, on a day-to-day basis].
ospider 4y ago
Unfortunately, for people living in China, such as me, the only reasonable ways, under Xi's reign, are either to start a rebellion or to go abroad. Actually, the term "Run-ology"(润学), which basically means the study of running away, has been quite popular in China for some time. My current plan is to find a new job in a western country, hopefully. I used to think that my country was just an authoritarianism state and things would get better, but now I know that it's simply dictatorship. I feel so sorry about what's going on in the land I love so much.
- dev_0 4y ago
  I heard people are stopped from moving overseas
- mupuff1234 4y ago
  Is it risky for you to be writing this?
  - hajimuz 4y ago
    Posting things like this will get him in the jail. (Just kidding.
  - ospider 4y ago
    Posting English content on a US based platform is safe for me. I'm glad that I didn't skip all the English classes when I was a kid. :P However, I WAS asked to report to the police station once for cursing Xi himself in Chinese on Weibo. A lot of words have been banned or censored, such as Winnie the Pooh, just because someone jokes that Xi looks like it. It's indeed very oppressive and scary for anyone who is even only slightly curious about politics in China. Looks like Cultural Revolution 2.0 is about to be generally available.
    - IAmGraydon 4y ago
      Be careful, and use Tor if possible. Best of luck, friend. I’m sorry you and your country are going through this.
mardiyah 4y ago
"With China and Russia trying to isolate themselves from the world....Cold War 2.0 is coming" You've been brainwashed ..help ourselves please
chatterhead 4y ago
Considering this era of growth meant Americans became fatter, dumber, and went from 1 person working households to 2 people working multiple jobs who still require state-sponsored benefits households - the end of globalism sounds pretty great.
sys_64738 4y ago
You need to have an exit strategy. What will happen to you if you lose your jobs and the only alternative is a minimum wage paying job? This is what most youngsters haven't had a life experience of. When you first get money you spend it freely on materialist things but it's all dependent on how quickly you learn that governments want you to be a slave to the work grind. If you have an ability to think and make decisions for yourself then you are a big problem for governments.
- AstralStorm 4y ago
  Exit strategy to where? There is no viable exit when the world is crumbling around you. Not even actual farmers might be safe. We have a lot of actual physical labor to do, regardless of how much it is paid for. It can be paid for well or it can ruin you. What our societies did is devalue important physical labor, when it's more necessary then ever before. We need to fix rivers, build exosystems - with a shovel and rake, oftentimes - and build these wind farms and solar panels, meaning restarting old manufacturing in a new clean ways. All while at the same time food and water still gets delivered and cleaned, garbage is properly disposed of, or better yet, reused. None of which current revision of capitalism promotes.

27 points by dev_0 4y ago

With China and Russia trying to isolate themselves from the world....Cold War 2.0 is coming I believe the era of growth is over. What are your preparation for low growth era?

0x445442 4y ago

China and Russia isolating themselves? You’ve heard of BRICS right?

tuatoru 4y ago
Here is how your BRICS were doing up until 2017.[1] India and China: OK at that point (before Modi and Xi had really started micromanaging, and before Covid hit trade). Brazil, Russia, and South Africa: get a participation certificate and commiserations. The acronym "BRICS" was a western invention in the early 2000s, shorthand for a list of good places to invest. Nothing more. 1. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Annual-GDP-Growth-of-BRICS-Countries_fig1_334611498 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Annual-GDP-Growth-of-BRI...
- 0x445442 4y ago
  A lot has happened since 2017.
orwin 4y ago
Brasil, Russia, India, China, South Africa. Tell me, besides Russia who managed to align with both China and India in some way and is their intermediary (no kidding, Russian diplomacy was top tier before they attacked), which of this country do you think will align with each other against the US? China managed in five years to be hated more than UK and France in Africa (Russia however is very well viewed there, again their diplomacy and PR). Brazil managed to create a pretty good sphere of influence but Bolsonaro by himself massacred that (his recording about abusing underage venezuelan refugees do not help, but the trend was downward before). If i based myself solely on demographic and the concept of demographic dividends, i would be worried for most Brics. Luckily, I've read a bit about hidden migration and i now understand where the wives and sisters of Gulf countries and Singapore 'workers' are send (doing a different kind of 'work'), so i think China will do just fine. Probably the others will too once they fix their political troubles.
- 0x445442 4y ago
  I wouldn’t be worried for most BRICS. Their coalition is growing because the world sees the hypocrisy of the west. And even the legacy western media is reluctantly capitulating to that fact. https://www.newsweek.com/nearly-90-percent-world-isnt-following-us-ukraine-opinion-1743061 https://www.newsweek.com/nearly-90-percent-world-isnt-follow...

dylanhassinger 4y ago

same as it ever was

version_five 4y ago

> Cold War 2.0 is coming This would be a blessing. I think we can trace most of our problems back to the end of the cold war. If we have some common thing to fight against we stop fighting each other (see Watchmen- ironically though it was about ending the cold war but a level down it works) More realistic is a 1984 style "continuous but meaningless war" that lets the various parties pursue their ideological aims without fear of revolt from inside. Though I have no idea how to prepare for this

Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
"I think we can trace most of our problems back to the end of the cold war. If we have some common thing to fight against we stop fighting each other...." That never happened during the Cold War from what I've read, and from what I observed starting in the early 1970s it steadily got worse.
- nostrademons 4y ago
  Note that the 1970s was a time of detente in the Cold War, so it supports the OPs point. As we started to forget about the Russians, we started to fight each other. The 80s is often held up as a time of renewed national unity, and it corresponds with heightened Cold War fears.
  - Gud 4y ago
    On the other hand, the 60s saw race riots and massive demonstrations against the Vietnam war. Plus the McCarthyism in the 40s and 50s.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
aliqot 4y ago
On a more positive note, hell yea here comes another space race!
scarface74 4y ago

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

drewcoo 4y ago

China and Russia are part of BRICS[1]. That's not isolation. That's half the world's people. And that's the coalition that will soon be the world economy. > Cold War 2.0 is coming I don't think the US can "win" that Cold War, so maybe it shouldn't pick the fight this time. [1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/brics.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/brics.asp

bee_rider 4y ago
BRICS is not a coalition, it is just a label for emerging economies that aren't 100% onboard with the US system. China and India aren't in a coalition, in fact their relationship has some rough spots.

ipaddr 4y ago

China and Russia are yesterdays growth stories (China is still at 5%). Look for growth in other places like Brazil which is poised to grow in the next 20 years.

DenverR 4y ago
India
- Bombthecat 4y ago
  Climate change would like to have a word with you
  - pempem 4y ago
    Climate change will have a word with everyone. Investment in infrastructure and climate management might help in a stitch...
    - AstralStorm 4y ago
      While India is building the infrastructure to not starve and drown they will not have sufficient exploitable labor to "grow" as translated into building and manning sweatshops and factories.
gruez 4y ago
> Look for growth in other places like Brazil which is poised to grow in the next 20 years. Poised... how? This graph from a recent economist article doesn't inspire much confidence: https://www.economist.com/img/b/400/436/90/media-assets/image/20221022_AMC452.png https://www.economist.com/img/b/400/436/90/media-assets/imag...
pempem 4y ago
China has strategically made bets for the last decade and is a major MAJOR investor in many of these 'other places'

shahbaby 4y ago

Bad information is often worse than no information which is why it's better to save your energy/time/resources to deal with circumstances as they unfold instead of trying to prepare for the unknown.

fabianhjr 4y ago
Risk assessments and decision rules like Minimax exist. (Saving up energy/time/resources is a specific possible action of many and might or might not be the optimal action)

Mikeb85 4y ago

Technological advancement still means growth, even if it looks different from the growth of the last 30 or so years. Also, wouldn't be a bad time for defence-related startups...

quiltofshadows 4y ago

Putin, Xi, Modi, Biden/Trump are getting older. Generational shift is coming and it is a phase transition. Where it settles, in which attractor basin is the Quintilian dollar question. :) I vote for the ECO revolution.

dev_0 4y ago
Xi will last as long as MaoZedong

SapporoChris 4y ago

No. First you must produce compelling evidence that globalization is ending before you can should ask how to deal with such. I don't see the evidence, to many countries have on going interconnected relationships. Before we address something like this, you would need to show evidence that it is happening, such as: Imports and exports are halting for a majority of the countries. Termination of diplomacy and communication between countries. To assist in this, you might consult some definitions of globalism.

anm89 4y ago
These are always the most cartoonish viewpoints. How dare you have an opinion! This is the internet! SapporoChris is going to require journal published studies, probably several, before granting you the unbelievable kindness of acknowledging your question.
- IAmGraydon 4y ago
  Having been a member of HN for 7 years, you should be well aware that we deal in facts and data here, and such things require evidence. If you want to spend your time with those who pull fiction out of thin air and present it as gospel, I would suggest you check out Reddit. It might be more your speed.
  - anm89 4y ago
    > Having been a member of HN for 7 years, you should be well aware that we deal in facts and data here, Could you start with the "facts and data" of where it is specified that there is requirement for "facts and data"? Having been a member here for 7 years, I can assure you that most posts do not contain "facts and data" and there is no requirement or implication of a requirement to post with "facts and data". In fact, a vast majority of everything written here is completely subjective and unsubstantiated. See. I'm not going to prove that with any facts or data at all. I'm just going to assert it. Ironically, you have a variation on breaking one of the actual written post guidelines in this very post: > Please don't post comments saying that HN is turning into Reddit. It's a semi-noob illusion, as old as the hills. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

sp332 4y ago

The future is more human-oriented instead of pursuing profit at the cost of everything else. It will be based on resilience instead of JIT, sustainability instead of extraction. Growth will be slow to zero, but things won't crash so often or so hard either. https://www.marketplace.org/2022/05/02/u-s-trade-representative-katherine-tai-worker-centered-policies/ https://www.marketplace.org/2022/05/02/u-s-trade-representat...

senectus1 4y ago

Green technologies and the de-centrification of energy sources is going to countermand the trend. The work will still grow.

nostromo 4y ago

This only really matters if you live in China or Russia. Everyone else will do just fine or better as manufacturing in China plateaus or declines and Russia’s sphere of influence recedes to its own border. The US will continue to grow modestly but steadily with decent governance, lots of resources, and a growing population.

givemeethekeys 4y ago
I keep wondering who'll work in all the factory jobs. How much will the jobs pay and how much will the rest of the people need to be able to make in order to afford Made in America things. Would appreciate insight into this.
- hyperhopper 4y ago
  We need legislative changes to make that lifestyle sustainable, because at the current rate it will become less and less so. In the long long term, probably will only end with legislation, revolt, or dystopian outcomes.
- pxue 4y ago
  It's just simply way too expensive to make things in America. We can build all the $B factories we want in the rust belt but shareholders will move it to places like Mexico at the first sign of profit. I'm seeing a real flow of software jobs to mexico too in the coming decades.
  - AstralStorm 4y ago
    Is it expensive, or is it that dollar is just too valuable to people out there? If they don't provide you with labor, (e.g. because they want it for themselves or they do not want to pollute their land) what will you do, raid them?
    - pxue 4y ago
      yes that's one way of looking at globalization, advanced economies export expensive and stable currencies to less advanced parts of the world in exchange for labor. That's the early 20s century model perfected by the Brits. Obviously it didn't last long but at least it made sense.

anm89 4y ago

I would try to avoid such binary narratives. I don't think globalization and growth are done, but they will almost certainly be very different going forward. In the case of the US, I think it's fair to say it will be a very long time before we have the level of globalized supply chains that we had at the end of 2019. I read this article earlier today which I thought provided some pretty insightful answers to this question: https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606 https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will...

c7DJTLrn 4y ago

Brexit too.

dilippkumar 4y ago

Since this is HN, here is a book recommendation: The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization by Peter Zeihan I’m going to add the usual disclaimers here about everything that comes with listening to a guy who has been predicting doom for a decade. He is very entertaining though and he has some unique insights and some unusual data comparisons - it’s fun to read. To be fair, he did predict events in Ukraine a few weeks before they happened [1]. That counts for as much credibility as one can have with a title of “geopolitical strategist” [1] Jump to 7:45 https://youtu.be/UA-jOLF2T4c https://youtu.be/UA-jOLF2T4c

mysecretaccount 4y ago
Around February 2022, I consumed every piece of Zeihan-related content I could find online. He is very entertaining but I had to give up on him because he plays a bit fast and loose with facts and makes pretty wild predictions. As an example, early in the Russia-Ukraine war, he claimed that Russia wanted to secure one of the geographical gateways into the country and could be expected to invade Poland and Romania circa this coming winter. He said that these gateways have been historically important for Russia's defense for hundreds of years and that they want to defend them before their population becomes too old to bear enough soldiers to take them. This is exemplary of both the good/bad with Zeihan: - He is entertaining and has unusual takes, as you said. - He tends to have an essentialist worldview: Russia is obsessed with its own topography so it invaded Ukraine, China is isolationist so Xi doesn't care about what goes on in other countries, etc. - He is a bit of a state department shill (probably necessary for his career, he seems to make a good amount from speaking gigs for these people). - He fixates on age demographics and draws many (probably too many) conclusions from them. Big props to him for introducing me to the population pyramid though: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_pyramid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_pyramid - He stopped making this claim around ~summer and I'm sure will never reckon with the fact that he sincerely said he thought Russia would invade a NATO country within a year in early-mid 2022, on multiple podcasts. I have heard him spout too much nonsense for me to listen to consistently at this point but I still check in on him just to hear what he has to say regarding major world events (like the NS1/2 pipeline bombings).
civilized 4y ago

lordentropy 4y ago

I wish it was just a cold war. It has turned into a real fucking disaster. Despot Putin does not seem to be backing off, and perhaps will destroy all of Ukraine's vital infrastructure no matter the cost. If Ukrainians still stand still, he will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons.

knewter 4y ago
"Putin will not hesitate to nuke his neighboring country" I frequently wish people could read their words but with my reactions to them
- mickdeek86 4y ago
  '...neighboring upwind country..."

jesuscript 4y ago

Why did the west even go to China in the first place? Cheaper labor. China can’t go do what the West does by meta colonizing (economically colonizing) South America, India, Africa and South East Asia because their people need the low wage jobs too. The West will just go elsewhere. If China and Russia don’t want the business, someone else will. And when suddenly those other someones become the growth story, China/Russia will adapt and reprice (as in, they will stop the shenanigans). This will sort itself out. Amoral industries will find the geopolitical jockeying by the growth economy leaders as a liability.

scarface74 4y ago
How much do you actually know about manufacturing in China? China is not where comps it’s go for “cheap labor”. Companies aren’t building clothing factories in China.
- jesuscript 4y ago
  Clothing factories is how it started. They weren’t exactly talking a whole lot of shit as we kept investing in that trade partnership up until they got to this advanced point. So, if this is the end of the line, we simply have to start again from zero in other economies. Start with the Nike sneakers all over again in some other part of the world, and don’t ever let it get so far where they also make your technology.
  - tuatoru 4y ago
    It's been happening for the last seven or eight years in Bangladesh. Now, knowing something about populations of countries, you might ask yourself, why there? Why not Pakistan, Indonesia, the Philippines, or Nigeria? They all are bigger than Bangladesh, and all appear to have better trade links and geography (ports, location, and such). Finding out the answers can deepen your understanding of the world.
    - jesuscript 4y ago
      You guys are port country, direct access to a lot of water and centrally located between trade channels (dead smack in the middle of China and India and other places in the south east). That’s my best guess. Might be a little harder (longer) to ship stuff to and from Pakistan.

cr4nberry 4y ago

> I believe the era of growth is over. What are your preparation for low growth era? I doubt it. It's a shame to see China isolating itself, but at the end of the day the manufacturing could just be moved somewhere else like India or Vietnam. Economically speaking, isolation is never the way forward, and China will likely fall further behind. Any sort of aggression on their part will only ensure that this happens If anything, the extreme differences between China/Russia and the US will just bring the US (and the Anglosphere) closer together. I'm convinced the west has reached a stage of post war society where it's understood that it's better to grow up rather than out What will be interesting to see is how Putin handles the current situation, considering they're losing ground and poorly prepared Ofc I'm speculating here, and my position is highly US-centric

aaron695 4y ago

accountofme 4y ago

I guess it depends on how you look at it... For me this is like a river with a big rock in the way... The water will find it's way around with other means...

publicola1990 4y ago

Its more like US trying to isolate itself from Russia and China (for seemingly different reasons), don't you think? It is as if US wants to rollback globalisation, because they feel it is starting to disadvantage them. But for many companies Apple for example, a globalised world is better, in both ways in terms of efficient supply chains and getting access to markets. International trade is a magic bullet in economics.

pg_bot 4y ago

It's highly unlikely that we will enter a sustained period of low growth. It is too advantageous for all parties to continue interconnecting economies. Any country that chooses to isolate themselves from the rest of the world will find that it is much more difficult to be self sufficient than they imagined.

yogthos 4y ago

That is not what's happening at all. China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, and lots of other countries are currently building an alternative to western economy. These countries are where majority of the world population lives.

defrost 4y ago
Absolutely. China has a very public long standing policy of engaing in global economic colonialism via its "one belt | one road | silk road 2" strategy. China having less(?) to do with the USofA in no way translates to China withdrawing from the world - rumour has it there are many other countries other than the US.
- uejfiweun 4y ago
  The US is the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. I don't think China will be able to simply swap out the US for Kazakhstan and these other 1B1R countries and throw in the towel. In fact, I just recently read that China is overhauling the entire program due to various failures: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-belt-road-debt-11663961638 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-belt-road-debt-1166396163...
  - defrost 4y ago
    > The US is the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. For now, imagine what a Trump second term might achieve, particularly given the real life example of Truss in the UK: > The past six weeks have been not so much a cautionary tale as much as a textbook example of what happens when political ideologues are let off the leash, allowed to shut out anyone with opposing views and given the keys to the kingdom ( Rob Harris, Sydney Morning Herald ) Your linked WSJ article indicates that China's plans are coming to roost sooner rather than later: > ... have left countries struggling to repay their debts to China. as this is pretty much the point of economic colonialism, just as the British once ended up with Hong Kong as an outpost for a century so too will China end up with a ring of outposts spanning the globe for a century forward, ideal for those distributed ground stations for its space programs coupled with duty free ports for trade.

bombcar 4y ago

I guess there are two questions: 1. Will we have hyperinflation at some point? 2. Will we have all-out war? Everything else can be answered by the standard "don't spend more than you make, invest in a broad-market index, keep your reserves available". But if you have those things covered, you may want to consider thinking about what you could do to mitigate 1 and/or 2. You don't have to go bunker-prepper, but you can do things that could help in those cases (and even in boring emergencies like hurricanes) - for example, change your eating habits to always have 2 weeks-6 months of food on stock, rotating through it, things like that.

jesuscript 4y ago
Doubt any side is uncomfortable or desperate enough for war. The comfortable don’t fight. They do, however, demo their weight. There’s at least one or two month blockade somewhere in our future where trade halts between the super powers, where we all glimpse into the economic center of the earth that we know certainly exists. Economic morbid curiosity. Then we’ll all sit back and go “woah what a world, economic death does exist, US is a big deal, so is China, so are all these other countries, let’s diplomatically settle this, we’ve had our exploratory mushroom trip in the desert, as all people need to, you know, find themselves”. But no war, we’re all far too weird for that now at this point. Wait, I just realized I rhymed. We did the same nonsense with the nukes during the Cold War. There’s something magical about human natures curiosity for “we just wanted to see what it would be like, but we would never …”.
- bombcar 4y ago
  Sounds a lot like what was said before a world war; things can get ugly way faster than we're used to - and it may not even be a war directly involving the US or any particular country. Russia and Ukraine has already caused massive secondary effects throughout the world, and that's a "relatively" minor conflict.

lolive 4y ago

Globalisation is all about transportation means being cheap and efficient. That will end with our understanding that it breaks the natural rules. (Or the depletion of cheap oil, whichever comes first) What you call the end of globalisation is the end of U.S dominance. [which is definitely NOT what I experience in Europe, on a day-to-day basis].

ospider 4y ago

Unfortunately, for people living in China, such as me, the only reasonable ways, under Xi's reign, are either to start a rebellion or to go abroad. Actually, the term "Run-ology"(润学), which basically means the study of running away, has been quite popular in China for some time. My current plan is to find a new job in a western country, hopefully. I used to think that my country was just an authoritarianism state and things would get better, but now I know that it's simply dictatorship. I feel so sorry about what's going on in the land I love so much.

dev_0 4y ago
I heard people are stopped from moving overseas
mupuff1234 4y ago
Is it risky for you to be writing this?
- hajimuz 4y ago
  Posting things like this will get him in the jail. (Just kidding.
- ospider 4y ago
  Posting English content on a US based platform is safe for me. I'm glad that I didn't skip all the English classes when I was a kid. :P However, I WAS asked to report to the police station once for cursing Xi himself in Chinese on Weibo. A lot of words have been banned or censored, such as Winnie the Pooh, just because someone jokes that Xi looks like it. It's indeed very oppressive and scary for anyone who is even only slightly curious about politics in China. Looks like Cultural Revolution 2.0 is about to be generally available.
  - IAmGraydon 4y ago
    Be careful, and use Tor if possible. Best of luck, friend. I’m sorry you and your country are going through this.

mardiyah 4y ago

"With China and Russia trying to isolate themselves from the world....Cold War 2.0 is coming" You've been brainwashed ..help ourselves please

chatterhead 4y ago

Considering this era of growth meant Americans became fatter, dumber, and went from 1 person working households to 2 people working multiple jobs who still require state-sponsored benefits households - the end of globalism sounds pretty great.

sys_64738 4y ago

You need to have an exit strategy. What will happen to you if you lose your jobs and the only alternative is a minimum wage paying job? This is what most youngsters haven't had a life experience of. When you first get money you spend it freely on materialist things but it's all dependent on how quickly you learn that governments want you to be a slave to the work grind. If you have an ability to think and make decisions for yourself then you are a big problem for governments.

AstralStorm 4y ago
Exit strategy to where? There is no viable exit when the world is crumbling around you. Not even actual farmers might be safe. We have a lot of actual physical labor to do, regardless of how much it is paid for. It can be paid for well or it can ruin you. What our societies did is devalue important physical labor, when it's more necessary then ever before. We need to fix rivers, build exosystems - with a shovel and rake, oftentimes - and build these wind farms and solar panels, meaning restarting old manufacturing in a new clean ways. All while at the same time food and water still gets delivered and cleaned, garbage is properly disposed of, or better yet, reused. None of which current revision of capitalism promotes.