6 ms·

Wondering if any geopolitical experts on HN can take a stab at explaining this move? From my rudimentary understanding, China was (has been) allied with Russia

by sgpl 5y ago

Wondering if any geopolitical experts on HN can take a stab at explaining this move? From my rudimentary understanding, China was (has been) allied with Russia behind the scenes in this move against Ukraine. Is this a hedge to maintain a good reputation and a good working relationship with the world by using this action as a: "Hey, look we helped Ukraine in its time of need"? > China has refused to describe Russia's activities in Ukraine as invasion.

WinstonSmith84 5y ago
not a geopolitical expert, but apparently China is trying to show a neutral stance. Or at least attempt to not antagonise either party https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2022/03/minitrue-turn-down-temperature-strictly-control-content-on-ukraine-situation/ https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2022/03/minitrue-turn-down-tem...
- raxxorrax 5y ago
  Maybe they realized that it surprised people that they did support Russia the directly. Many had no illusions about that, but would have expected their statements towards the invasion to be more diplomatic.
trasz 5y ago
China is essentially pacifist. And it’s not just their politics; it’s how Chinese - the actual people - feel. Invading anyone just isn’t their thing. So, they are quite unhappy with Russia’s invasion, but they can’t join US sanctions, because US. Instead they’ll probably sanction Russia silently, and then buy out Russian industry for peanuts.
- eloisius 5y ago
  This is news for anyone living in Taiwan.
  - trasz 5y ago
    Only if you believe in propaganda instead of looking at the facts. Can you tell me what offensive actions against Taiwan China has actually made?
    - eloisius 5y ago
      Are we limited to actions they have successfully carried out, or just those they threaten to? Are you implying that it’s Western/Taiwanese propaganda that China is willing to forcibly unify Taiwan and that in fact China would never consider it?
      - trasz 5y ago
        Precisely - China has been repeatedly saying they wouldn’t invade Taiwan. What you are describing is our western rhetoric built around it, which essentially assumes everything they say is a lie. We are perversely enthusiastic towards wars. Chinese - the people, not just their government - hate war. Even if sometimes it’s not a good thing, like when declining to join economic war against Russia.
        reducesuffering 5y ago
        > China has been repeatedly saying they wouldn’t invade Taiwan. This is the argument you're still positing after the last month? Is the irony lost on you? I guess if it's not crystal clear: https://www.npr.org/2022/01/10/1071766987/u-s-russia-dicuss-ukraine-can-diplomacy-help-avoid-a-military-confrontation https://www.npr.org/2022/01/10/1071766987/u-s-russia-dicuss-...
        acdha 5y ago
        > China has been repeatedly saying they wouldn’t invade Taiwan China also promised that Hong Kong would operate as it had until 2047 so clearly the Taiwanese have reason to question the sincerity of these claims.
        5y ago
irl_ 5y ago
China and Chinese Red Cross are different things.
- sgpl 5y ago
  Yeah I'd like to think that too, but the article mentions in its first paragraph that this aid was announced by the 'Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian.' So in this case it doesn't seem like they're different.
pvaldes 5y ago
I assume that Chinese oligarchs had taken good lessons about the fate of Russian oligarchs properties in the western countries (and specially about their money movements being watched more closely).
podviaznikov 5y ago
Not an expert. But this is tiny amount of money. So probably a formality. I know individuals who raised more for Ukraine from their friends. Also Red Cross seems to be dead. Many people on the ground said that in the past 8 years in Ukraine it did nothing. Will need more research but it seems to be highly ineffective organization that spends a lot of money and doesn’t produce much. So sending this amount of money is basically nothing and looks like PR move.
- powerapple 5y ago
  It is not money, it is products needed for refuges.
  - trasz 5y ago
    In which case it might be worth orders of magnitude more - basic stuff in China is way cheaper than in the West, and here they can also bypass all the usual middleman.
    - powerapple 5y ago
      Exactly. I don't understand west's point. They are not going to fight, and they will just supply weapon to make the war bloodier. And now they are pushing Poland to have direct conflict with Russia.
      - trasz 5y ago
        They supply weapons so that Ukraine can defend. And one of the things we now know is that Russian army is a laughing stock. They can be dangerous to civilians though, thus the need for SAMs.
  - mekster 5y ago
    Yeah, China is like, "Don't look at us as if we're on the bullying side, oh hey, I just happen to have a cookie, look."
kstenerud 5y ago
Russia surprised China with its invasion timing & planning, in particular the mismanagement that turned this from a regional thing into a major international incident, which is now causing a lot of embarrassment due to their mutual cooperation. They don't want to discard friendship with Russia over this, but at the same time it looks bad all around, right at the time when China is pushing hard to become the new moral, economic, and cultural center of the world. China isn't going to assist Ukraine directly, of course, nor is it going to push hard to back Russia. But backchannel humanitarian aid always looks good, and can't be criticised. Plus it helps to drive the point home that Putin has embarrassed them and they don't like that.
- prewett 5y ago
  And it’s not even expensive, just $800k and they get a headline on Reuters.
- CapricornNoble 5y ago
  Largely agree with your post except: My understanding is Xi knew of the invasion well-ahead, and actually told Putin to delay it, to not interfere with the Beijing Olympics. This might partly explain the logistical problems the Russians are having: when they first started massing combat power, they didn't plan to have 150,000+ guys sitting around in the winter for quite this long.
  - kstenerud 5y ago
    Yes he did know, sorry if I wasn't clear enough. The issue is that it was bungled horribly and turned into an international incident when it shouldn't have. TBH I'm still surprised Russia didn't employ salami tactics, taking the breakaway regions while holding troops on the Ukrainian border as a deterrence to interfere, and to warn them away from NATO. But then again, word on the street is that Putin really did believe that Ukrainians consider themselves Russian at heart and would welcome him. ... Or maybe he just got impatient?
    - FinanceAnon 5y ago
actuator 5y ago
This is Chinese Red cross and not China but this is very similar to what one more friend of Russia, India is doing. They have also sent in humanitarian aid. Humanitarian aid helps you support people and not help in the defense of Ukraine, so Russia won't mind. Also, compared to China's GDP, this is nothing when you compare it to other countries.
throwaway4good 5y ago
Given that India, China and a bunch of other countries do not condemn the invasion nor participate in the sanctions against Russia, most of the world, in terms of population, is actually not on the "western side" of this conflict. China in general is concerned with trade.
- trasz 5y ago
  US wouldn’t join Chinese sanctions either.
- adventured 5y ago
  > most of the world, in terms of population, is actually not on the "western side" of this conflict How do we know which side those people are on? Either way, fortunately the world doesn't function by 51% majority vote.
muzani 5y ago
I often recommend reading SCMP to see China's real stance. Western media tends to demonize China unfairly. This one is quite telling: https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3168656/ukraine-invasion-chinas-global-economic-ambitions-face https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3168656/u... Everyone knows China as a Russian trade partner but they're also a major Ukrainian trade partner as well. If you want a more neutral source there's Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Ukraine_relations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Ukraine_relation...
jacknews 5y ago
My guess is the Red Cross decided on the donation, and the CCP jumped on it, to take the credit, and deflect from their own lack of action - the announcement does appear to be from the foreign ministry. Supporting evidence is that the amount is paltry, even insulting, as a govt donation, so either they were rushed into 'sponsoring' the existing announcement, or they are sending a message of barely even token aid.
trasz 5y ago
China appears to be finally adjusting their course: “China steps away from Russia, finally calling the invasion of Ukraine a ‘war’”. https://fortune.com/2022/03/02/china-civilians-harm-russia-invasion-ukraine-war/amp/ https://fortune.com/2022/03/02/china-civilians-harm-russia-i...

by sgpl 5y ago

WinstonSmith84 5y ago

not a geopolitical expert, but apparently China is trying to show a neutral stance. Or at least attempt to not antagonise either party https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2022/03/minitrue-turn-down-temperature-strictly-control-content-on-ukraine-situation/ https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2022/03/minitrue-turn-down-tem...

raxxorrax 5y ago
Maybe they realized that it surprised people that they did support Russia the directly. Many had no illusions about that, but would have expected their statements towards the invasion to be more diplomatic.

trasz 5y ago

China is essentially pacifist. And it’s not just their politics; it’s how Chinese - the actual people - feel. Invading anyone just isn’t their thing. So, they are quite unhappy with Russia’s invasion, but they can’t join US sanctions, because US. Instead they’ll probably sanction Russia silently, and then buy out Russian industry for peanuts.

eloisius 5y ago
This is news for anyone living in Taiwan.
- trasz 5y ago
  Only if you believe in propaganda instead of looking at the facts. Can you tell me what offensive actions against Taiwan China has actually made?
  - eloisius 5y ago
    Are we limited to actions they have successfully carried out, or just those they threaten to? Are you implying that it’s Western/Taiwanese propaganda that China is willing to forcibly unify Taiwan and that in fact China would never consider it?
    - trasz 5y ago
      Precisely - China has been repeatedly saying they wouldn’t invade Taiwan. What you are describing is our western rhetoric built around it, which essentially assumes everything they say is a lie. We are perversely enthusiastic towards wars. Chinese - the people, not just their government - hate war. Even if sometimes it’s not a good thing, like when declining to join economic war against Russia.
      - reducesuffering 5y ago
        > China has been repeatedly saying they wouldn’t invade Taiwan. This is the argument you're still positing after the last month? Is the irony lost on you? I guess if it's not crystal clear: https://www.npr.org/2022/01/10/1071766987/u-s-russia-dicuss-ukraine-can-diplomacy-help-avoid-a-military-confrontation https://www.npr.org/2022/01/10/1071766987/u-s-russia-dicuss-...
      - acdha 5y ago
        > China has been repeatedly saying they wouldn’t invade Taiwan China also promised that Hong Kong would operate as it had until 2047 so clearly the Taiwanese have reason to question the sincerity of these claims.
        5y ago

irl_ 5y ago

China and Chinese Red Cross are different things.

sgpl 5y ago
Yeah I'd like to think that too, but the article mentions in its first paragraph that this aid was announced by the 'Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian.' So in this case it doesn't seem like they're different.

pvaldes 5y ago

I assume that Chinese oligarchs had taken good lessons about the fate of Russian oligarchs properties in the western countries (and specially about their money movements being watched more closely).

podviaznikov 5y ago

Not an expert. But this is tiny amount of money. So probably a formality. I know individuals who raised more for Ukraine from their friends. Also Red Cross seems to be dead. Many people on the ground said that in the past 8 years in Ukraine it did nothing. Will need more research but it seems to be highly ineffective organization that spends a lot of money and doesn’t produce much. So sending this amount of money is basically nothing and looks like PR move.

powerapple 5y ago
It is not money, it is products needed for refuges.
- trasz 5y ago
  In which case it might be worth orders of magnitude more - basic stuff in China is way cheaper than in the West, and here they can also bypass all the usual middleman.
  - powerapple 5y ago
    Exactly. I don't understand west's point. They are not going to fight, and they will just supply weapon to make the war bloodier. And now they are pushing Poland to have direct conflict with Russia.
    - trasz 5y ago
      They supply weapons so that Ukraine can defend. And one of the things we now know is that Russian army is a laughing stock. They can be dangerous to civilians though, thus the need for SAMs.
- mekster 5y ago
  Yeah, China is like, "Don't look at us as if we're on the bullying side, oh hey, I just happen to have a cookie, look."

kstenerud 5y ago

Russia surprised China with its invasion timing & planning, in particular the mismanagement that turned this from a regional thing into a major international incident, which is now causing a lot of embarrassment due to their mutual cooperation. They don't want to discard friendship with Russia over this, but at the same time it looks bad all around, right at the time when China is pushing hard to become the new moral, economic, and cultural center of the world. China isn't going to assist Ukraine directly, of course, nor is it going to push hard to back Russia. But backchannel humanitarian aid always looks good, and can't be criticised. Plus it helps to drive the point home that Putin has embarrassed them and they don't like that.

prewett 5y ago
And it’s not even expensive, just $800k and they get a headline on Reuters.
CapricornNoble 5y ago
Largely agree with your post except: My understanding is Xi knew of the invasion well-ahead, and actually told Putin to delay it, to not interfere with the Beijing Olympics. This might partly explain the logistical problems the Russians are having: when they first started massing combat power, they didn't plan to have 150,000+ guys sitting around in the winter for quite this long.
- kstenerud 5y ago
  Yes he did know, sorry if I wasn't clear enough. The issue is that it was bungled horribly and turned into an international incident when it shouldn't have. TBH I'm still surprised Russia didn't employ salami tactics, taking the breakaway regions while holding troops on the Ukrainian border as a deterrence to interfere, and to warn them away from NATO. But then again, word on the street is that Putin really did believe that Ukrainians consider themselves Russian at heart and would welcome him. ... Or maybe he just got impatient?
  - FinanceAnon 5y ago

actuator 5y ago

This is Chinese Red cross and not China but this is very similar to what one more friend of Russia, India is doing. They have also sent in humanitarian aid. Humanitarian aid helps you support people and not help in the defense of Ukraine, so Russia won't mind. Also, compared to China's GDP, this is nothing when you compare it to other countries.

throwaway4good 5y ago

Given that India, China and a bunch of other countries do not condemn the invasion nor participate in the sanctions against Russia, most of the world, in terms of population, is actually not on the "western side" of this conflict. China in general is concerned with trade.

trasz 5y ago
US wouldn’t join Chinese sanctions either.
adventured 5y ago
> most of the world, in terms of population, is actually not on the "western side" of this conflict How do we know which side those people are on? Either way, fortunately the world doesn't function by 51% majority vote.

muzani 5y ago

I often recommend reading SCMP to see China's real stance. Western media tends to demonize China unfairly. This one is quite telling: https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3168656/ukraine-invasion-chinas-global-economic-ambitions-face https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3168656/u... Everyone knows China as a Russian trade partner but they're also a major Ukrainian trade partner as well. If you want a more neutral source there's Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Ukraine_relations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Ukraine_relation...

jacknews 5y ago

My guess is the Red Cross decided on the donation, and the CCP jumped on it, to take the credit, and deflect from their own lack of action - the announcement does appear to be from the foreign ministry. Supporting evidence is that the amount is paltry, even insulting, as a govt donation, so either they were rushed into 'sponsoring' the existing announcement, or they are sending a message of barely even token aid.

trasz 5y ago

China appears to be finally adjusting their course: “China steps away from Russia, finally calling the invasion of Ukraine a ‘war’”. https://fortune.com/2022/03/02/china-civilians-harm-russia-invasion-ukraine-war/amp/ https://fortune.com/2022/03/02/china-civilians-harm-russia-i...