reducesuffering

7 ms·

1.
by reducesuffering 4d ago
This thread is a testament to the travesty of how bad HN discourse has gotten. It's become an echo chamber of knee-jerk cynical sneering. All the heads of the labs (Sama, Dario, Demis Hassabis, Ilya, Musk) agree with the risks to human
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by reducesuffering 4d ago
It's worrying because they all agree, along with Turing Award winners like Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio, that this is indeed an existential risk to humanity.
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by reducesuffering 5d ago
Yes, that's the point. It does no good for the US to stop if China doesn't. It does no good for the US to go full speed ahead to beat China, it still leads to a high probability of extinction. That would be like saying "I can
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by reducesuffering 5d ago
https://www.thecompendium.ai/ai-catastrophe https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMQ3cqWDPHhjtiesc/agi-ruin-a... A book if you will: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/If_Anyone_Builds_
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by reducesuffering 5d ago
"The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. This is not a marketing stunt. If anything, many executives and senior researchers will couch their phrasing in the press to sound sensible -
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by reducesuffering 6d ago
This forum is fundamentally unserious and complete kneejerk cynicism these days. At one point it was prescient. Now these types of things were discussed years ago in other channels and when we reach a point where finally everyone comes ar
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by reducesuffering 6d ago
GCP reported its first quarterly operating profit in Q1 2023, roughly 15 years after Google began offering cloud computing. Frontier labs are also reinvesting their tens of billions of revenue back into infra scaleout, sounds like Amazon. I
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by reducesuffering 6d ago
This is exactly how Cloud Computing looked in 2012-2018. Dumping huge $ into computing buildout that wasn't profitable yet. All those co's: Amazon, GCP, Azure paid off immensely and are ridiculously profitable.
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Personal Statement on Joining the OpenAI Board(paulfchristiano.substack.com)
4 points by reducesuffering 7d ago|0 comments
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by reducesuffering 8d ago
GP defined reasonable people as not believing in existential risk from AGI. I think the leadership and alignment teams are way more informed and reasonable than some of the very poorly thought through takes like GP just making things up abo
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by reducesuffering 8d ago
Both companies have deluded themselves into thinking the arms race is going to happen anyway and they need to rush to it first, as if somehow that helps. They have publicly stated as such repeatedly. They think the ~10-50% chance of extinct
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by reducesuffering 8d ago
How is it not addressed? The company never contained only "reasonable people" that believe AGI is not an existential risk to humanity. At both inceptions were people who believed in AGI x-risk, even the founders. Only after time,
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by reducesuffering 8d ago
Before OpenAI was ever even founded, way before any regulatory capture plausible claims: "Development of superhuman machine intelligence (SMI) [1] is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity. There are other
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by reducesuffering 8d ago
> I can only assume the reasonable people at openai and anthropic were all pushed out long ago Typical uninformed take on the side of "doomers are crazy". Both CEO's of OpenAI, Sam Altman and Dario Amodei, and many in thei
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by reducesuffering 8d ago
More like latent societal anxiety, some chaos, and then instant grey goo.
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by reducesuffering 8d ago
> extremely intelligent people make confident predictions about AI capabilities and progress, then be so completely wrong. The ability for the human mind to rationalize conclusions to maintain denial in the face of a very scary future is
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by reducesuffering 8d ago
Yes a couple of elite mathematicians working on the problem for a year, which AGI solved in a fraction of the time. What about everyone else 100IQ? What about as the models are even better 1 year from now, 2 years? The trajectory hasn'
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by reducesuffering 8d ago
Practical?! The goalposts will keep moving until morale improves (narrator: it doesn't)
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by reducesuffering 15d ago
> The bubble is here Zitron implied 2 years ago that OpenAI would collapse by now. How's that bubble popping going? All NVDA+memory co+frontier lab numbers are accelerating
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by reducesuffering 17d ago
You've been here awhile, this forum is default incredibly skeptical and critical, especially when it comes to AI. It has been to their predictive detriment for many years now. AI bubble conviction is over 2 years now, $300b NVDA profit
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by reducesuffering 20d ago
Their profits are incredible too, they have 62% net margin! Last quarter $60b profit on $96b revenue. Since the "AI bubble going to pop" terrible takes 2 years ago, NVDA has made $300b in profits.
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by reducesuffering 20d ago
Yes, exactly why you should not put belief in someone who has proven themselves to make poor predictions. He's even further removed from the zeitgeist 9 years later. Daniel Kokotajlo had the closest prediction for our current world, 5
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by reducesuffering 26d ago
Once a model like Fable/Mythos is trained, that was used for this project, the inference costs are profitable. CapEx vs. OpEx. Every new Zig->Rust port of this caliber using Fable/Mythos costs the standard token price, it'
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by reducesuffering 27d ago
Lobste.rs is now flagging Bun 1.4 post as spam and comments are dismissing it as nothing, even as that blog post got much more discussion and piling on about the rewrite. Internet echo chambers are quite a problem. AI success and its immens
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by reducesuffering 27d ago
~3 months start to finish and the price of 1 engineer for a year, to rewrite a critical infra codebase that tens of millions of user software relies on . Truly the goalposts keep moving. This kind of project would've have been 10x the
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by reducesuffering 28d ago
Absolute crickets from the "there's no way LLM's can rewrite Bun to Rust this quickly, it's going to be buggy, it's marketing" crowd Comments here 3 months ago are quite something: https://news.ycomb
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by reducesuffering 28d ago
This is still the case. The frontier lab leadership has admitted their mechanistic interpretability is practically nil and is an active area of research but they have made little progress. They don't understand how they work, they ju
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by reducesuffering 28d ago
Why should we believe someone who can't do basic due diligence that Hinton did indeed receive a Turing award? https://amturing.acm.org/byyear.cfm
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by reducesuffering 28d ago
It is extraordinarily emotionally hard for someone to stare down the terrible implications of what is unfolding. All manner of rationalization and cope will be applied to come up with excuses; motivated reasoning. The CIA director will call
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by reducesuffering 28d ago
no one dead because we're willing to use our means to enforce a restriction on a scenario that is likely on our trajectory to kill everyone. We also use serious threats to prevent nuclear proliferation that endangers everyone

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