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Meanwhile, the economists behind Freakonomics argue that it was caused by the legalization of abortion: http://freakonomics.com/2005/05/15/abortion-and-crime-wh

by m0th87 7y ago

Meanwhile, the economists behind Freakonomics argue that it was caused by the legalization of abortion: http://freakonomics.com/2005/05/15/abortion-and-crime-who-should-you-believe/ http://freakonomics.com/2005/05/15/abortion-and-crime-who-sh... I don't have a strong opinion on whether cell phones or abortion or anything else caused the collapse in crime, but do feel like the theories you'll read about the most (assuming you're not an academic in the social sciences) are the ones that make for the most interesting headlines.

jgalt212 7y ago
or the elimination of leaded gasoline.
- thrower123 7y ago
  In reality, it is probably a hugely complicated blending of all these different effects that is almost impossible to tease out root causes for. Complex systems are complex.
  - codesushi42 7y ago
    The drop is likely related to the precipitous technological change at the time though. The Internet, wireless communication, video games, cheap cable TV. Even Internet porn. I don't really see cellphones as being the defining factor here. They were relatively rare during the 90s. Even by the early 00s, only rich folks owned them.
- tonyedgecombe 7y ago
  Or too cheap to steal consumer goods.
  - cal5k 7y ago
    Or video games.
  - sdinsn 7y ago
    Crime rates fell across the board, not just petty crime. Violent crime rates fell especially hard
    - Gibbon1 7y ago
      Rape dropped by 75-80% between 1970 and 2015.
fuzz4lyfe 7y ago
Wow that's dark, I never heard that angle. The founder of planned parenthood Margret Sanger was a eugenicist and primarily established abortion centers in poor areas to eliminate "human weeds"[0]. If freakonomics is correct it seems that Sanger was as well, at least in part. I hope they aren't. [0]"Birth control is not contraception indiscriminately and thoughtlessly practiced. It means the release and cultivation of the better racial elements in our society, and the gradual suppression, elimination and eventual extirpation of defective stocks— those human weeds which threaten the blooming of the finest flowers of American civilization." - Margret Sanger from "Apostle of Birth Control Sees Cause Gaining Here", The New York Times 1923
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  You're mixing up abortion and contraception, timelines, and omitting the fairly important fact that eugenics was a pretty mainstream idea in the 1920s. https://rewire.news/article/2015/08/20/false-narratives-margaret-sanger-used-shame-black-women/ https://rewire.news/article/2015/08/20/false-narratives-marg... > Sanger opposed abortion. She believed it to be a barbaric practice. In her own words, “[a]lthough abortion may be resorted to in order to save the life of the mother, the practice of it merely for limitation of offspring is dangerous and vicious.” Her views are, ironically, in keeping with the views of many of the anti-choicers who malign and distort her legacy. > In fact, Planned Parenthood did not even begin performing abortions until after 1973, when the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Roe v. Wade legalized the practice. Margaret Sanger had been dead for four years by then.
  - fuzz4lyfe 7y ago
    Thank you for the correction, you are right. I wonder what is special about abortion where this purposed effect can be observed and not simply with contraception.
    - ceejayoz 7y ago
dustinmr 7y ago
And they recently published updated results: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/05/new-paper-by-donohue-and-levitt-on-abortion-and-crime.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/05/ne...
duxup 7y ago
I always heard that folks linked it to lead exposure, paint, gas, etc.
oldgregg 7y ago
If the Ford or Gates Foundation dump hundreds of millions into contraceptive/abortion services in Africa the direct effect is culling the world of black babies. Wrapping it in a veneer of do-goodery is what imperialists have always been doing. Eugenics is still VERY much alive-- I run into sophisticated urbane people all the time who openly believe child-bearing should be restricted to people who pass IQ or means testing.
- HeyLaughingBoy 7y ago
  Um, no. The direct effect is on the lives of those who would otherwise have to birth and support those babies as they grow into children and adolescents. Using words like "culling" and "veneer of do-goodery" leads the discussion in the direction you want it to go.
lukev 7y ago
I can't believe there is a whole comment thread on this, when it's actually addressed (at moderate length) in the original article. Are people only responding to headlines, anymore?
- qwsxyh 7y ago
  Most HN comments are written with a complete disregard to the contents of the links posted.
melling 7y ago
There’s also a lead in gasoline theory: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead–crime_hypothesis https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead–crime_hypothesis
- Gibbon1 7y ago
  That theory at least has the advantage of having solid neuroscience behind it, generally solid clinical data, and lots of positive cross correlation.

by m0th87 7y ago

jgalt212 7y ago

or the elimination of leaded gasoline.

thrower123 7y ago
In reality, it is probably a hugely complicated blending of all these different effects that is almost impossible to tease out root causes for. Complex systems are complex.
- codesushi42 7y ago
  The drop is likely related to the precipitous technological change at the time though. The Internet, wireless communication, video games, cheap cable TV. Even Internet porn. I don't really see cellphones as being the defining factor here. They were relatively rare during the 90s. Even by the early 00s, only rich folks owned them.
tonyedgecombe 7y ago
Or too cheap to steal consumer goods.
- cal5k 7y ago
  Or video games.
- sdinsn 7y ago
  Crime rates fell across the board, not just petty crime. Violent crime rates fell especially hard
  - Gibbon1 7y ago
    Rape dropped by 75-80% between 1970 and 2015.

fuzz4lyfe 7y ago

Wow that's dark, I never heard that angle. The founder of planned parenthood Margret Sanger was a eugenicist and primarily established abortion centers in poor areas to eliminate "human weeds"[0]. If freakonomics is correct it seems that Sanger was as well, at least in part. I hope they aren't. [0]"Birth control is not contraception indiscriminately and thoughtlessly practiced. It means the release and cultivation of the better racial elements in our society, and the gradual suppression, elimination and eventual extirpation of defective stocks— those human weeds which threaten the blooming of the finest flowers of American civilization." - Margret Sanger from "Apostle of Birth Control Sees Cause Gaining Here", The New York Times 1923

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
ceejayoz 7y ago
You're mixing up abortion and contraception, timelines, and omitting the fairly important fact that eugenics was a pretty mainstream idea in the 1920s. https://rewire.news/article/2015/08/20/false-narratives-margaret-sanger-used-shame-black-women/ https://rewire.news/article/2015/08/20/false-narratives-marg... > Sanger opposed abortion. She believed it to be a barbaric practice. In her own words, “[a]lthough abortion may be resorted to in order to save the life of the mother, the practice of it merely for limitation of offspring is dangerous and vicious.” Her views are, ironically, in keeping with the views of many of the anti-choicers who malign and distort her legacy. > In fact, Planned Parenthood did not even begin performing abortions until after 1973, when the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Roe v. Wade legalized the practice. Margaret Sanger had been dead for four years by then.
- fuzz4lyfe 7y ago
  Thank you for the correction, you are right. I wonder what is special about abortion where this purposed effect can be observed and not simply with contraception.
  - ceejayoz 7y ago

dustinmr 7y ago

And they recently published updated results: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/05/new-paper-by-donohue-and-levitt-on-abortion-and-crime.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/05/ne...

duxup 7y ago

I always heard that folks linked it to lead exposure, paint, gas, etc.

oldgregg 7y ago

If the Ford or Gates Foundation dump hundreds of millions into contraceptive/abortion services in Africa the direct effect is culling the world of black babies. Wrapping it in a veneer of do-goodery is what imperialists have always been doing. Eugenics is still VERY much alive-- I run into sophisticated urbane people all the time who openly believe child-bearing should be restricted to people who pass IQ or means testing.

HeyLaughingBoy 7y ago
Um, no. The direct effect is on the lives of those who would otherwise have to birth and support those babies as they grow into children and adolescents. Using words like "culling" and "veneer of do-goodery" leads the discussion in the direction you want it to go.

lukev 7y ago

I can't believe there is a whole comment thread on this, when it's actually addressed (at moderate length) in the original article. Are people only responding to headlines, anymore?

qwsxyh 7y ago
Most HN comments are written with a complete disregard to the contents of the links posted.

melling 7y ago

There’s also a lead in gasoline theory: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead–crime_hypothesis https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead–crime_hypothesis

Gibbon1 7y ago
That theory at least has the advantage of having solid neuroscience behind it, generally solid clinical data, and lots of positive cross correlation.