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You're concerned with a 23% YTD return on the stock and a 600% return over 5 years? The market has a way of signaling if a company is totally screwed up. Looks
by corbett3000 10y ago
You're concerned with a 23% YTD return on the stock and a 600% return over 5 years? The market has a way of signaling if a company is totally screwed up. Looks like it isn't.
- robszumski 10y ago> 23% YTD return While the 600% is impressive, the year to date performance matches the overall market. Gotta hit those Model 3 dates to maintain the confidence.
- ojbrien 10y agoWhat overall market? MSCI ACWI Autos and Components was at 3.44% YTD at the end of Feburary while MSCI ACWI was at 5.37%. The S&P 500 is at about 7% YTD return. Tesla's YTD return more than matches the overall market https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/f87aad4f-6f38-4878-a149-878bde47068c https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/f87aad4f-6f38-4878-a149...
- idiot_stick 10y ago>Tesla's YTD return more than matches the overall market What is so significant about YTD? You can arrange the data in any number of ways to tell a story: A Tesla investment since 2014 has lost money (and been diluted). Go back to 2013 and suddenly it's a goldmine. Tesla having been a "good purchase" depends on what you paid. But I have a feeling that more people are sitting on a cost basis >$250 than <$100, in which case a TSLA investment has been mediocre.
- Cookingboy 10y agoWell the market can be terribly wrong on many companies in the long run, both undervaluing great companies and overvaluing terrible companies. Tesla's vision is for the next 20 years, not the last 5. Historical performance is also not an indicator of future performance. Everyday I'm holding onto the shares is the same as if I made the decision to buy that many shares on that day. If anything the fantastic return would encourage long term investors so far to partially cash out and diversify their risk a bit.
- ganonm 10y ago> Everyday I'm holding onto the shares is the same as if I made the decision to buy that many shares on that day This is a great way to think about holding investments. I remember using this argument to try and convince a family member that they should sell what I considered to be a bad investment. I phrased it as 'If you were forced to sell your shares right now would you use the money from the sale to immediately buy back your shares?'. He responded that no, he wouldn't. Obviously this ignores brokerage fees, but it is a useful thought experiment nonetheless.
- Cookingboy 10y agoYep, and it's a great way to debunk stuff like the Sunken Cost (I've put in so much already!) fallacy.
- trevyn 10y agoIgnoring tax implications is a much, much bigger problem for your argument than ignoring brokerage fees.
- sokoloff 10y agoIndeed. Even execution slippage is greater than brokerage fees for a reasonable sized round-trip trade at a discount broker.
- floatrock 10y agoSure, the real world inhabited by the pro's is complicated, but the point is when we're first learning the fundamentals, we assume an idealized frictionless plane.
- olalonde 10y ago> This is a great way to think about holding investments. Unless you believe in the efficient market hypothesis...
- teslacar 10y ago
- CaveTech 10y agoThe market isn't an oracle, and a stock doing well is no guarantee that a company is moving in the right direction. The sentiment is that they're doing well, but only time can prove that.
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- ISL 10y agoThat return can only be realized if OP sells. It sounds like OP's intent was to buy shares in a long-term business/vision, not in a stock. In the long term, markets are a weighing machine, but in the short term, they are a popularity contest. In August 1998, YHOO traded under $10/share. In December 1999, YHOO traded at > $100/share, a > 1000% return over 16 months. From February 2001 to February 2003, YHOO traded under $10/share. Markets are fickle.
- teslacar 10y agoThat is because Yahoo got overtaken by Google's superior ad platform and search. Tesla has no obvious viable competitors. It is a premium product that caters to a specific demographic, much like the iPhone in 2007.
- vecinu 10y agoWhat about all the other manufacturers focusing on electric-only vehicles?
- teslacar 10y agoTesla caters to specific high-end market, which it dominates by far. Many also tried to copy the iphone and ipod but also failed
- dragonwriter 10y agoThe growth plan for the automotive business is specifically to expand beyond the premium market and escape the limited demographic, though. And to achieve that plan, they have to deal with lots of competition.
- zitterbewegung 10y agoHave you heard about this car company called Chevrolet ? They have this car called the Bolt. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Bolt https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Bolt
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- tma-1 10y agoVRX was worth $257 in 2015, now it's worth $11.
- RayVR 10y agoThe water is warm. Come trade.
- dsacco 10y agoI suppose "the market" was collectively looking the other way for Bear Stearns in January 2007, when it closed on a record high? What was the market signaling about Enron in September 2000, little over a year before it collapsed? Share prices can be fantastic while a company is horribly, even comically mismanaged. They soar right up until they don't.
- elastic_church 10y agoMillennials will buy anything. Can't short the retail bull. (Yet.)
- ebbv 10y agoThe market is very often wrong. This kind of blind faith is why.
- twblalock 10y ago> The market has a way of signaling if a company is totally screwed up. The markets can't predict the future. Investors' expectations about the future are priced into the stock, but those expectations are often wrong.
- kelvin0 10y agoWhere were you in 2009 and earlier years? The 'market' is the last one to tell you when the feces will be hitting the proverbial fan.
- shriphani 10y agoOne word - Enron.