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Part of the problem is that the last few generations have been told the same thing: blue collar jobs aren't "good" jobs. You need to go to college so you can ge

Part of the problem is that the last few generations have been told the same thing: blue collar jobs aren't "good" jobs. You need to go to college so you can get a "good" job sitting at a desk because those other jobs are below you. If you take one of those blue collar jobs then you've failed and aren't "achieving your potential". The grand irony in all of this is that the people who did go on to become plumbers, electricians, mechanics, roofers, HVAC specialists, etc, are all the ones that are currently in huge demand. And over the next 20 - 30 years they're the ones that aren't going to be automated (well ... mechanics may become less relevant with electric cars rising in popularity). As much as I'd love to automate remodeling my kitchen I'm not holding my breath on seeing it happen any time soon.

massysett 10y ago
> And over the next 20 - 30 years they're the ones that aren't going to be automated Not true. Look at any construction site and labor-saving innovations abound. Plumbing comes in new materials like PEX, which takes less labor to install. Large parts of houses are fabricated off-site and shipped in on trucks. No job is immune from automation and increased efficiency.
pwthornton 10y ago
Blue collar employment has been falling in this country, replaced by either knowledge work -- which usually requires further education -- or service industry jobs. If there were truly huge demand for many of these professions, pay would be skyrocketing, encouraging more and more people to go into these professions. I agree that there are and will continue to be good skilled trade jobs and many people would be better served by pursuing these options, but there is tremendous value for the average American in a college degree. The problem is that a lot of Americans are unable to graduate college, and waste their time and money pursuing a degree instead of doing something more inline with their talents or their drive. As it stands, automation will most likely continue to primarily affect blue collar workers before it hits knowledge workers. Long-haul truck driving will probably fall relatively soon and factories will continue to have more and more automation.
- brianbreslin 10y ago
  I've seen welders making $160k/year in Texas (oil), BUT the caveat is that its 1 welder whereas 20 years ago that 1 guy had 3 coworkers.
  - FLUX-YOU 10y ago
    Plus that is likely a shitload of hours per week. Definitely not sustainable long term.
  - shostack 10y ago
    How do the health risks compare to sitting at a desk all day?
    - brianbreslin 10y ago
      You could argue programmers in most countries get compensated for that risk of sitting all day. But most office workers do not.
- ghaff 10y ago
  OTOH, I've been trying to get a bathroom remodel done for about 18 months at this point. (Hopefully about to start.) It's 1.) Not cheap and 2.) Isn't about to be done by a robot. Not for everyone obviously and it's not big pay but I know what I pay contractors and it's nowhere near minimum wage.
  - kasey_junk 10y ago
    But you could have gotten it done much faster by paying more...
    - ghaff 10y ago
      Ha! Money was not particularly an object. Everyone was just busy.
bsder 10y ago
> The grand irony in all of this is that the people who did go on to become plumbers, electricians, mechanics, roofers, HVAC specialists, etc, are all the ones that are currently in huge demand. Huge demand? Not in the US. Trades salary growth has been flat.
- rbritton 10y ago
  The demand for many of those trades largely follows the rises and falls of the housing market. I grew up with family in that industry and have seen both extremes of it. Right now, in this area, there is more demand than labor. Several years ago the opposite was true.
vaishaksuresh 10y ago
The problem with the jobs you're listing is that they are tied to the individual's physical health and capability. A 50 year old guy can sit at a desk and work, but many 50 year olds don't want to go fixing roofs. Sure they can run a business and hire other plumbers/roofers, but then they are doing desk job again.
tuna-piano 10y ago
The other irony is that when college is paid for by taxes of the entire society, both those who went to college and those who didn't, the ones who didn't go to college end up paying for those who did. Net, it's literally a transfer from the non-college educated people to the college-educated people. Absolutely insane.
- huherto 10y ago
  Even if they were not able to get a college education, their kids might. Also people who benefit the most for college will pay more. The productivity that society gains as a whole will offset the costs.
stevenkovar 10y ago
To me, the issue started when college became about securing a career over expanding / exploring intellectual horizons. The result of this transition incentivizes the wrong output: instead of kids coming out of college able to freely think for themselves, now they come out begging for direction.
duaneb 10y ago
Non-salaried jobs are not stable, it's not about "good"ness. If you want to provide, find a salaried job. If you want to weather recessions, find a salaried job. If you want to have a career as opposed to a job, start with a salaried position and work your way up. At least this is how I was raised. I don't think I have an opinion myself aside from enjoying the idea that I'll likely have the same job in a year I do now.
k-mcgrady 10y ago
>> Part of the problem is that the last few generations have been told the same thing: blue collar jobs aren't "good" jobs. You need to go to college so you can get a "good" job sitting at a desk because those other jobs are below you. If you take one of those blue collar jobs then you've failed and aren't "achieving your potential". I think another part of it is that even low level office jobs now require some sort of degree simply because everybody has one. It's no longer something unique to have on your CV hence why so many people seem to be going for Masters degrees too. I know so many people only getting out of education in their late 20's and many of them got a degree, struggled to find a job, so went back for the Masters to give them ad edge. Another problem all this education causes is lack of experience. If you decide at 16 or 17 that you're going into a trade you can get an apprenticeship and build up experience. If you go to college 'because that's what people do' and struggle to find a job based on your degree when you come out it's hard to even get a job in retail or sales because you're 23 with no experience. One solution might be to only offer loans for degrees that lead to a job (doctor, lawyer, architect etc.) and consider things like History or Music a luxury.
- pwthornton 10y ago
  Education is not job training. And a good education should prepare you to switch careers. Comparing higher education to job training is especially damaging in a fast paced economy with new fields and jobs popping up all the time.
- ThrustVectoring 10y ago
  >I think another part of it is that even low level office jobs now require some sort of degree simply because everybody has one. This is the key problem - education is often positional good, since not every job seeker can be better educated than the others. >One solution might be to only offer loans for degrees that lead to a job (doctor, lawyer, architect etc.) and consider things like History or Music a luxury. Better is to make asking about and providing your college background illegal, with some exceptions for doctors/lawyers/engineers/etc.
- jinfiesto 10y ago
  I'm skeptical of not allowing loans for degrees that don't lead to jobs. The fact that a statistical argument can be made, like "Only 30% of music majors have jobs out of school" totally obscures the fact that there are causal factors that determine career success out of school. I don't think the issue is degrees that don't lead to jobs. I think much of the issue is people beginning degrees that they have no business beginning. I suppose this is probably related to to many people going to college in the first place? I majored in music. It's pretty easy to tell who will have a reasonable career after college. The people who are well prepared succeed. The people who aren't usually flounder and subsequently go on to flounder after school. Should we be telling people who are likely to succeed in their field that they can't get loans to study something they will probably do well at because of all the asshats that apply to these programs with little preparation?
ng12 10y ago
I don't even think it goes that far. A lot of young kids go to school because they can. It's autopilot, basically no different than going middle school -> high school. Find a school that'll accept you, pick a major when they tell you to, and don't worry about the loans until after you've graduated. I saw this first-hand -- I want to a very good school that wasn't _quite_ top-tier. My classes were full of kids who were only there because their parents had decided they should go to college, and then the parents fell in love with the school.
maxerickson 10y ago
The trades are difficult to completely automate but there are similar impacts from deskilling and moving work into factories. When I say deskilling, I'm talking about creating products that reduce the amount of skill required to do a task. This increases the pool of labor competing for the job. It also often increases how much a single person can get done in a given amount of time. Compare PEX and copper pipe fitting.
- TheSpiceIsLife 10y ago
  Yep, the laser cutter I operate can do in a day what it was taking 4 apprentices to do in a week. And it can do things no human could possibly do with hand tools. The next thing we'd like to get us something like the Voortman V808[1], that thing should cut or labour input requirements by 50% or more. 1. https://youtu.be/Tk1un34l81E https://youtu.be/Tk1un34l81E
  - chrishynes 10y ago
    That's the interesting thing. It's the opposite of deskilling that the parent was talking about. Instead of removing skilled jobs and increasing a job pool of less skilled ones, tech can increase efficiency of master craftsman to the point where there is no need for the less skilled/experienced apprentices, thereby compressing the job pool instead of expanding it.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
karma_vaccum123 10y ago
Not only that, but "tradespeople" start earning right after high school. That four-five year head start is more meaningful than people realize. You could be making a down payment on owning your residence while your friends are still undergrads. Nothing wins in investing like being early.
- Broken_Hippo 10y ago
  That depends on whether or not your trade requires some sort of qualifacation or not and whether your high school or surrounding area offers free courses in it. (Occasionally folks will pay to train you, if you meet minimum qualifacations, but you also must work for them for some years). Otherwise, you wind up going to school a couple more years. You are still likely going to start work 2-3 years sooner than someone going for a 4 year degree.
- pwthornton 10y ago
  Conversely, leverage allows you to make more money, and if you can use education as leverage to put you into a six-figure-a-year career trajectory, that's going to pay off.
- protomyth 10y ago
  Technically, some really need to go through an apprenticeship. Plumbers take a while. Most also need to go to a trade school. Your point about a head start stands though. Plus its very hard to ship those jobs overseas.
joesmo 10y ago
They aren't good jobs. The average salary for plumbers is around $50-55k or so, right around the median for the US. Ok, but certainly not good. For roofers and mechanics, you're significantly below the median around $35k, basically in poverty especially if you have a family. I don't think encouraging people away from education is the problem when salaries are this low (poverty levels).
- Broken_Hippo 10y ago
  Here is the thing: A lot of jobs after college are bad jobs if you go by income only. The average teacher's salary is around 40-45k, beginners make much less. Preschool teacher with degree? Barely over minimum wage if you are lucky. Sure, you get summers off, but you also don't have a paycheck during that time. Business degree? You might be a retail store manager because that is what you found that you actually have experience in... because you worked retail through school. It is bad all around.
- imgabe 10y ago
  Most of these jobs are not salaried and can have significant opportunity for overtime at time and a half or more.
- aianus 10y ago
  The median you quoted is for a household (usually more than one person). 55k is well above the median individual income.
- danreedx86 10y ago
  not to split hairs, but that's median household income... usually made of 2 incomes these days. plumbers, electricians, and plenty of other blue collar vocations do pretty well imo.
- santaclaus 10y ago
  35K is def not poverty. I managed to get by in Manhattan on less...
  - 10y ago
flubert 10y ago
>plumbers, electricians, mechanics, roofers, HVAC specialists, etc, are all the ones that are currently in huge demand. ...You might get a different picture of things if you hang out in some of the skill trades reddits: https://www.reddit.com/r/SkilledTradesNetwork/wiki/community_listing https://www.reddit.com/r/SkilledTradesNetwork/wiki/community... ...fer instance: "Here's what 10$ an hour looks like! Had to put in my 2 weeks." https://www.reddit.com/r/Welding/comments/52byky/heres_what_10_an_hour_looks_like_had_to_put_in_my/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Welding/comments/52byky/heres_what_...
- tw04 10y ago
  >>...fer instance: "Here's what 10$ an hour looks like! Had to put in my 2 weeks." And pretty much every reply is "I make way more than that, what are you thinking??" I'd imagine the guy either doesn't know how to show up consistently and on-time, or has such a severe lack of social skills that he can't properly interview for a job. If you can weld like that and can't find a job making more than $10/hr you are doing something SERIOUSLY wrong.
  - leereeves 10y ago
    > "I make way more than that, what are you thinking??" Way more than that being $30/hour = $60K per year.
    - falcolas 10y ago
      Which is $20k over the US household average. Not arguing that we could consider it low, but providing more context.
      - duaneb 10y ago
        IIRC just this week the US Census released a median household income of $56,000k. Even traditionally poor-performing demographics are well above $40,000/year at median.
stale2002 10y ago
Or how about software engineer? You can absolutely get a job as a web developer without a degree. I know many who have done so.
harryh 10y ago
Your anecdotes are interesting but the data shows that the college wage premium is as high as it has ever been.
quizzas 10y ago
Contracting trades (electrician, plumbing, HVAC, etc.) make great money. I helped a few friends get in the business; they couldn't find jobs with their ITT tech degrees, so I hooked them up with a few general contractors to make ends meet. Fast forward 10 years, and all three of them run their own crews (HVAC mostly) and easily make $200,000 each. They do work hard, 7 days per week, but love their job and take 30 days off between jobs during peak summer. Hanging around their group, I realize that those who succeed in this area have one thing in common: total commitment to hardwork. Very simple, and something many people have in spades but are applying it in dead end desk jobs.

massysett 10y ago

> And over the next 20 - 30 years they're the ones that aren't going to be automated Not true. Look at any construction site and labor-saving innovations abound. Plumbing comes in new materials like PEX, which takes less labor to install. Large parts of houses are fabricated off-site and shipped in on trucks. No job is immune from automation and increased efficiency.

pwthornton 10y ago

Blue collar employment has been falling in this country, replaced by either knowledge work -- which usually requires further education -- or service industry jobs. If there were truly huge demand for many of these professions, pay would be skyrocketing, encouraging more and more people to go into these professions. I agree that there are and will continue to be good skilled trade jobs and many people would be better served by pursuing these options, but there is tremendous value for the average American in a college degree. The problem is that a lot of Americans are unable to graduate college, and waste their time and money pursuing a degree instead of doing something more inline with their talents or their drive. As it stands, automation will most likely continue to primarily affect blue collar workers before it hits knowledge workers. Long-haul truck driving will probably fall relatively soon and factories will continue to have more and more automation.

brianbreslin 10y ago
I've seen welders making $160k/year in Texas (oil), BUT the caveat is that its 1 welder whereas 20 years ago that 1 guy had 3 coworkers.
- FLUX-YOU 10y ago
  Plus that is likely a shitload of hours per week. Definitely not sustainable long term.
- shostack 10y ago
  How do the health risks compare to sitting at a desk all day?
  - brianbreslin 10y ago
    You could argue programmers in most countries get compensated for that risk of sitting all day. But most office workers do not.
ghaff 10y ago
OTOH, I've been trying to get a bathroom remodel done for about 18 months at this point. (Hopefully about to start.) It's 1.) Not cheap and 2.) Isn't about to be done by a robot. Not for everyone obviously and it's not big pay but I know what I pay contractors and it's nowhere near minimum wage.
- kasey_junk 10y ago
  But you could have gotten it done much faster by paying more...
  - ghaff 10y ago
    Ha! Money was not particularly an object. Everyone was just busy.

bsder 10y ago

> The grand irony in all of this is that the people who did go on to become plumbers, electricians, mechanics, roofers, HVAC specialists, etc, are all the ones that are currently in huge demand. Huge demand? Not in the US. Trades salary growth has been flat.

rbritton 10y ago
The demand for many of those trades largely follows the rises and falls of the housing market. I grew up with family in that industry and have seen both extremes of it. Right now, in this area, there is more demand than labor. Several years ago the opposite was true.

vaishaksuresh 10y ago

The problem with the jobs you're listing is that they are tied to the individual's physical health and capability. A 50 year old guy can sit at a desk and work, but many 50 year olds don't want to go fixing roofs. Sure they can run a business and hire other plumbers/roofers, but then they are doing desk job again.

tuna-piano 10y ago

The other irony is that when college is paid for by taxes of the entire society, both those who went to college and those who didn't, the ones who didn't go to college end up paying for those who did. Net, it's literally a transfer from the non-college educated people to the college-educated people. Absolutely insane.

huherto 10y ago
Even if they were not able to get a college education, their kids might. Also people who benefit the most for college will pay more. The productivity that society gains as a whole will offset the costs.

stevenkovar 10y ago

To me, the issue started when college became about securing a career over expanding / exploring intellectual horizons. The result of this transition incentivizes the wrong output: instead of kids coming out of college able to freely think for themselves, now they come out begging for direction.

duaneb 10y ago

Non-salaried jobs are not stable, it's not about "good"ness. If you want to provide, find a salaried job. If you want to weather recessions, find a salaried job. If you want to have a career as opposed to a job, start with a salaried position and work your way up. At least this is how I was raised. I don't think I have an opinion myself aside from enjoying the idea that I'll likely have the same job in a year I do now.

k-mcgrady 10y ago

>> Part of the problem is that the last few generations have been told the same thing: blue collar jobs aren't "good" jobs. You need to go to college so you can get a "good" job sitting at a desk because those other jobs are below you. If you take one of those blue collar jobs then you've failed and aren't "achieving your potential". I think another part of it is that even low level office jobs now require some sort of degree simply because everybody has one. It's no longer something unique to have on your CV hence why so many people seem to be going for Masters degrees too. I know so many people only getting out of education in their late 20's and many of them got a degree, struggled to find a job, so went back for the Masters to give them ad edge. Another problem all this education causes is lack of experience. If you decide at 16 or 17 that you're going into a trade you can get an apprenticeship and build up experience. If you go to college 'because that's what people do' and struggle to find a job based on your degree when you come out it's hard to even get a job in retail or sales because you're 23 with no experience. One solution might be to only offer loans for degrees that lead to a job (doctor, lawyer, architect etc.) and consider things like History or Music a luxury.

pwthornton 10y ago
Education is not job training. And a good education should prepare you to switch careers. Comparing higher education to job training is especially damaging in a fast paced economy with new fields and jobs popping up all the time.
ThrustVectoring 10y ago
>I think another part of it is that even low level office jobs now require some sort of degree simply because everybody has one. This is the key problem - education is often positional good, since not every job seeker can be better educated than the others. >One solution might be to only offer loans for degrees that lead to a job (doctor, lawyer, architect etc.) and consider things like History or Music a luxury. Better is to make asking about and providing your college background illegal, with some exceptions for doctors/lawyers/engineers/etc.
jinfiesto 10y ago
I'm skeptical of not allowing loans for degrees that don't lead to jobs. The fact that a statistical argument can be made, like "Only 30% of music majors have jobs out of school" totally obscures the fact that there are causal factors that determine career success out of school. I don't think the issue is degrees that don't lead to jobs. I think much of the issue is people beginning degrees that they have no business beginning. I suppose this is probably related to to many people going to college in the first place? I majored in music. It's pretty easy to tell who will have a reasonable career after college. The people who are well prepared succeed. The people who aren't usually flounder and subsequently go on to flounder after school. Should we be telling people who are likely to succeed in their field that they can't get loans to study something they will probably do well at because of all the asshats that apply to these programs with little preparation?

ng12 10y ago

I don't even think it goes that far. A lot of young kids go to school because they can. It's autopilot, basically no different than going middle school -> high school. Find a school that'll accept you, pick a major when they tell you to, and don't worry about the loans until after you've graduated. I saw this first-hand -- I want to a very good school that wasn't _quite_ top-tier. My classes were full of kids who were only there because their parents had decided they should go to college, and then the parents fell in love with the school.

maxerickson 10y ago

The trades are difficult to completely automate but there are similar impacts from deskilling and moving work into factories. When I say deskilling, I'm talking about creating products that reduce the amount of skill required to do a task. This increases the pool of labor competing for the job. It also often increases how much a single person can get done in a given amount of time. Compare PEX and copper pipe fitting.

TheSpiceIsLife 10y ago
Yep, the laser cutter I operate can do in a day what it was taking 4 apprentices to do in a week. And it can do things no human could possibly do with hand tools. The next thing we'd like to get us something like the Voortman V808[1], that thing should cut or labour input requirements by 50% or more. 1. https://youtu.be/Tk1un34l81E https://youtu.be/Tk1un34l81E
- chrishynes 10y ago
  That's the interesting thing. It's the opposite of deskilling that the parent was talking about. Instead of removing skilled jobs and increasing a job pool of less skilled ones, tech can increase efficiency of master craftsman to the point where there is no need for the less skilled/experienced apprentices, thereby compressing the job pool instead of expanding it.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]

karma_vaccum123 10y ago

Not only that, but "tradespeople" start earning right after high school. That four-five year head start is more meaningful than people realize. You could be making a down payment on owning your residence while your friends are still undergrads. Nothing wins in investing like being early.

Broken_Hippo 10y ago
That depends on whether or not your trade requires some sort of qualifacation or not and whether your high school or surrounding area offers free courses in it. (Occasionally folks will pay to train you, if you meet minimum qualifacations, but you also must work for them for some years). Otherwise, you wind up going to school a couple more years. You are still likely going to start work 2-3 years sooner than someone going for a 4 year degree.
pwthornton 10y ago
Conversely, leverage allows you to make more money, and if you can use education as leverage to put you into a six-figure-a-year career trajectory, that's going to pay off.
protomyth 10y ago
Technically, some really need to go through an apprenticeship. Plumbers take a while. Most also need to go to a trade school. Your point about a head start stands though. Plus its very hard to ship those jobs overseas.

joesmo 10y ago

They aren't good jobs. The average salary for plumbers is around $50-55k or so, right around the median for the US. Ok, but certainly not good. For roofers and mechanics, you're significantly below the median around $35k, basically in poverty especially if you have a family. I don't think encouraging people away from education is the problem when salaries are this low (poverty levels).

Broken_Hippo 10y ago
Here is the thing: A lot of jobs after college are bad jobs if you go by income only. The average teacher's salary is around 40-45k, beginners make much less. Preschool teacher with degree? Barely over minimum wage if you are lucky. Sure, you get summers off, but you also don't have a paycheck during that time. Business degree? You might be a retail store manager because that is what you found that you actually have experience in... because you worked retail through school. It is bad all around.
imgabe 10y ago
Most of these jobs are not salaried and can have significant opportunity for overtime at time and a half or more.
aianus 10y ago
The median you quoted is for a household (usually more than one person). 55k is well above the median individual income.
danreedx86 10y ago
not to split hairs, but that's median household income... usually made of 2 incomes these days. plumbers, electricians, and plenty of other blue collar vocations do pretty well imo.
santaclaus 10y ago
35K is def not poverty. I managed to get by in Manhattan on less...
- 10y ago

flubert 10y ago

>plumbers, electricians, mechanics, roofers, HVAC specialists, etc, are all the ones that are currently in huge demand. ...You might get a different picture of things if you hang out in some of the skill trades reddits: https://www.reddit.com/r/SkilledTradesNetwork/wiki/community_listing https://www.reddit.com/r/SkilledTradesNetwork/wiki/community... ...fer instance: "Here's what 10$ an hour looks like! Had to put in my 2 weeks." https://www.reddit.com/r/Welding/comments/52byky/heres_what_10_an_hour_looks_like_had_to_put_in_my/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Welding/comments/52byky/heres_what_...

tw04 10y ago
>>...fer instance: "Here's what 10$ an hour looks like! Had to put in my 2 weeks." And pretty much every reply is "I make way more than that, what are you thinking??" I'd imagine the guy either doesn't know how to show up consistently and on-time, or has such a severe lack of social skills that he can't properly interview for a job. If you can weld like that and can't find a job making more than $10/hr you are doing something SERIOUSLY wrong.
- leereeves 10y ago
  > "I make way more than that, what are you thinking??" Way more than that being $30/hour = $60K per year.
  - falcolas 10y ago
    Which is $20k over the US household average. Not arguing that we could consider it low, but providing more context.
    - duaneb 10y ago
      IIRC just this week the US Census released a median household income of $56,000k. Even traditionally poor-performing demographics are well above $40,000/year at median.

stale2002 10y ago

Or how about software engineer? You can absolutely get a job as a web developer without a degree. I know many who have done so.

harryh 10y ago

Your anecdotes are interesting but the data shows that the college wage premium is as high as it has ever been.

quizzas 10y ago

Contracting trades (electrician, plumbing, HVAC, etc.) make great money. I helped a few friends get in the business; they couldn't find jobs with their ITT tech degrees, so I hooked them up with a few general contractors to make ends meet. Fast forward 10 years, and all three of them run their own crews (HVAC mostly) and easily make $200,000 each. They do work hard, 7 days per week, but love their job and take 30 days off between jobs during peak summer. Hanging around their group, I realize that those who succeed in this area have one thing in common: total commitment to hardwork. Very simple, and something many people have in spades but are applying it in dead end desk jobs.