tripletao

6 ms·

1.
by tripletao 1mo ago
I don't think you're disputing that the requested order would halt Kalshi's operations nationwide for as long as Kalshi remained headquartered in NYC though? The CFTC's framing is disingenuous, presumably because they wa
2.
by tripletao 1mo ago
I think the point of confusion or obfuscation is that Kalshi is headquartered in NYC, so an order prohibiting them from offering bets/contracts "within or from New York" has the effect of prohibiting them nationwide. They cou
3.
by tripletao 2mo ago
The most likely theory of artificial origin is that SARS-CoV-2 was deliberately created as a chimera of two natural sarbecoviruses with a human-designed furin cleavage site between them. The WIV proposed to undertake this research in collab
4.
by tripletao 2mo ago
You seem to be implying that railway spending was "over 10% of GDP for a few decades" in the late 1800s. If yes then can you trace that back to a methodology? I tried and found much lower numbers, around 3% average over the peak d
5.
by tripletao 5mo ago
This seems to show the railroads peaking around 9% of GDP. While that's lower than some of the other unsourced numbers I've seen, it's much higher than the numbers I was able to find support for myself at https://n
6.
by tripletao 5mo ago
> you seem to be narrowing your argument to "well for simple math it's less efficient" but that's not the argument being made at all. What? Unless the thing you want to compute happens to be exactly that eml() functio
7.
by tripletao 5mo ago
> The core of this is the Arrhenius rate, (A × T^n × exp(-E_a/(R×T))), which involves an exponentiation, a division, a multiplication, and an exponential. On a GPU, that's multiple SFU calls chained with ALU ops. In an EML tree
8.
by tripletao 5mo ago
So to clarify, you think that replacing every multiplication with 24 transcendental function evaluations (12 eml(x, y), each of which evaluates exp(x) and ln(y) plus the subtraction; see the paper's Fig 2) is somehow a win? The fact th
9.
by tripletao 5mo ago
It would almost always be much, much worse. Practical numerical libraries (whether implemented in hardware or software) contain lots of redundancy, because their goal is to give you an optimized primitive as close as possible to the operati
10.
by tripletao 5mo ago
I'm not sure what you mean by this? It's true that any Boolean operation can be expressed in terms of two-input NAND gates, but that's almost never how real IC designers work. A typical standard cell library has lots of primi
11.
by tripletao 6mo ago
If you already own highly appreciated QQQ in a taxable account then your options are limited, since moving to a different ETF would realize the capital gain. It may be preferable to hold even if you think you're losing money buying Spa
12.
by tripletao 7mo ago
Nobody cares even then, because any bias due to theoretical deviation from k-equidistribution is negligible compared to the desired random variance, even if we average trials until the Sun burns out. By analogy, if we're generating an
13.
by tripletao 7mo ago
If you can find a case where this matters, then you've found a practical way to distinguish a CSPRNG seeded with true randomness from a stream of all true randomness. The cryptographers would consider that a weakness in the CSPRNG algo
14.
by tripletao 7mo ago
Ah, then I see where you got 4 assignments and 2x probability. Then I think that is the problem the author was worried about and that it would be a real concern with those numbers, but that the much smaller number of possibilities in your e
15.
by tripletao 7mo ago
This is correct, but for the author's example of randomizing turkeys I wouldn't bother. A modern CSPRNG is fast enough that it's usually easier just to generate lots of excess randomness (so that the remainder is nonzero but
16.
by tripletao 7mo ago
> If, say, you do the assignment from a 256 bit random number such that 4 of the possible assignments are twice as likely as the others under your randomization procedure Your numbers don't make sense. Your number of assignments is
17.
by tripletao 7mo ago
Everyone agrees that most of the possible shuffles become impossible when a CSPRNG with 256 bits of state is used. The question is just whether that matters practically. The original author seems to imply it does, but I believe they're
18.
by tripletao 7mo ago
As you note, a 256-bit CSPRNG is trivially not equidistributed for a tuple of k n-bit integers when k*n > 256. For a block cipher I think it trivially is equidistributed in some cases, like AES-CTR when k*n is an integer submultiple of 2
19.
by tripletao 7mo ago
Are they claiming that ChaCha20 deviates measurably from equally distributed in k dimensions in tests, or just that it hasn't been proven to be equally distributed? I can't find any reference for the former, and I'd find that
20.
by tripletao 8mo ago
It's good that Ioannidis improved the analysis in response to criticism, but that doesn't mean the criticism was invalid; if anything, that's typically evidence of the opposite. As I read Gelman's complaint of wasted tim
21.
by tripletao 8mo ago
I mean that in the context of "Most Published Research Findings Are False", he criticized work (unrelated to COVID, since that didn't exist yet) that used incorrect statistical methods even if its final conclusions happened t
22.
by tripletao 8mo ago
Ioannidis corrected for false positives with a point estimate rather than the confidence interval. That's better than not correcting, but not defensible when that's the biggest source of statistical uncertainty in the whole calcul
23.
by tripletao 8mo ago
He published a serosurvey that claimed to have found a signal in a positivity rate that was within the 95% CI of the false-positive rate of the test (and thus indistinguishable from zero to within the usual p < 5%). He wasn't necess
24.
by tripletao 8mo ago
Bank of America Travel Rewards is effectively 2.625% on everything if you put >$100k in a Merrill account and redeem the rewards against "travel" (including restaurants in any location) expenses charged to the card. There'
25.
by tripletao 8mo ago
Their problem is with false positives they find, not true positives you find. My application for a credit card was somehow flagged as fraudulent. Chase repeatedly asked for additional forms of ID, then told me the scans I sent were illegibl
26.
by tripletao 8mo ago
I think those optoisolators are indeed sold mostly for switching power supplies. That's probably why someone cared enough about aging to write an app note, since the ambient temperature is high there and the exact CTR matters more when
27.
by tripletao 9mo ago
The "RS-232" part is important here, since directly connecting the UART pins for the two MCUs without the RS-232 level shifters may trivially permit bidirectional dataflow, for example by reconfiguring the pins to GPIO and bit-ban
28.
by tripletao 9mo ago
> over a few years, the LED gets dimmer and dimmer That shouldn't happen unless the LED is driven near the top of its current rating, which shouldn't be necessary unless you're pushing the limits of its rise/fall time
29.
by tripletao 9mo ago
In many industrial applications, the concern is mostly control of the isolated side, like because that could physically destroy stuff. Exfiltration is a smaller or nonexistent concern, since you're already sending most data out deliber
30.
by tripletao 9mo ago
I'm not aware of any evidence that he was using testosterone enanthate (or any other particular steroid), though he certainly looked like he was using something. Those are already controlled substances, though. His drug dealer is presu

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