squidproquo

5 ms·

1.
by squidproquo 2mo ago
If it's the case that prediction market traders were trying to front-run the market outcomes, the prediction markets should put the fix on their end by locking down trading before a market closes with some time buffer to prevent this.
2.
by squidproquo 11mo ago
When OpenAI goes public that will be the sign that they need to pass the baton to the retail invest--I mean--bag-holders.
3.
by squidproquo 11mo ago
The non-determinism is part of the allure of these systems -- they operate like slot machines in a casino. The dopamine hit of getting an output that appears intelligent and the variable rewards keeps us coming back. We down-weight and igno
4.
by squidproquo 1y ago
Reminds me of the marketing for a really bad movie: - “genius” - “the missing link” - “breaks the barrier”
5.
by squidproquo 1y ago
The other thing to note is that journalism in the US has gotten really lazy. A lot of the articles you will see in the MSM are based on leaked info and press-releases from PR firms, etc. It's easier to for journalists to regurgitate st
6.
by squidproquo 1y ago
Agree with this. Human language is also not very information-dense; there is a lot of redundancy and uninformative repetition of words. I also wonder about the compounding effects of luck and survivorship bias when using these systems. If y
7.
by squidproquo 2y ago
Thank you for this. It’s nice to feel not alone.
8.
Tutorial Forecasting for Data Scientists (Christoph Bergmeir) [video](youtube.com)
3 points by squidproquo 2y ago|0 comments
9.
by squidproquo 2y ago
Excellent blog post. Summed up what I've been thinking for the past few years. I find myself endlessly consuming content (videos, podcasts, etc.) that I would deem "educational". It feels good, like you're learning somet
10.
by squidproquo 4y ago
A lot of these instances seem to describe meteorites. I don't see a connection to lightning at all. Also, it's pretty crazy that the ball lightning phenomenon has been around for a while, yet it hasn't been replicated in a la
11.
by squidproquo 5y ago
I'm pretty sure you can get Knorr Aromat Seasoning in Europe. It's not pure MSG, but it does contain it (probably the main ingredient).
12.
by squidproquo 5y ago
Interesting, I built an app that does something similar with respect to converting forecasts to trades, allowing forecasters to trade their predictions (in hidden market) for points (not real money). https://www.unitarity.com&#x2
13.
by squidproquo 5y ago
You will probably score very high on this test: https://www.psychopathtest.com/
14.
Big Tech is playing a financial shell game(ft.com)
5 points by squidproquo 5y ago|2 comments
15.
by squidproquo 5y ago
An interesting PBS Space Time episode covering this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rh898Yr5YZ8
16.
by squidproquo 5y ago
This site is crowdsourcing forecasts for the location of flight MH370: https://www.unitarity.com/app/challenges/mh370/events/2020
17.
by squidproquo 5y ago
If anyone is interested in forecasting the location of where flight MH370 will be found: https://www.unitarity.com/app/challenges/mh370/events/2020
18.
by squidproquo 5y ago
I built this project a few years ago with a Django back-end and and Angular as a SPA front-end. The component that shows the 3-D Earth was built with d3. The goal of the project (Unitarity) is to make crowdsourcing forecasts for various eve
19.
Show HN: Predict Flight MH370's Location(unitarity.com)
1 points by squidproquo 5y ago|1 comments
20.
by squidproquo 5y ago
This is not a great investment. It's pays it's base rate (0.0%) plus inflation (7.12%). The rate is based on inflation and is reset every 6 months, and I'm assuming the base rate of (0.0%) doesn't change. It may make sen
21.
by squidproquo 5y ago
I think the overarching idea here makes sense, but the devil is in the details. 1) It's going to be difficult to ensure that the 'Orb' device can't be hacked and allow bad actors to send a bunch of random codes to signup
22.
by squidproquo 5y ago
This article reminded me about a strange incident that happened to me a decade ago. I was with a group of friends in a bar playing a game of Trivial Pursuit. None of us were drunk or under the influence of drugs. Sometime, during the middle
23.
by squidproquo 5y ago
As reassuring as when Palau joined the "Coalition of The Willing."
24.
by squidproquo 5y ago
If anyone dabbles in forecasting the Consumer Price Index (CPI), add your forecast here: https://www.unitarity.com/app/challenges/us-consumer-price-i...
25.
by squidproquo 6y ago
Star Trek replicator technology v0.0.0.0.0.1
26.
by squidproquo 6y ago
Reducing the number of hours/jobs that people currently work would reduce the labor supply and wages would rise (Econ 101). I don't see how these "consequences" are a bad thing. Furthermore, "unforeseen consequences
27.
Fossil fuel-free jet propulsion with air plasmas(phys.org)
3 points by squidproquo 6y ago|1 comments
28.
by squidproquo 6y ago
If anyone has been doing Covid-19 simulations for the United States. I'm crowdsourcing forecasts on this site: https://www.unitarity.com/app/challenges/us-coronavirus-outb...
29.
by squidproquo 6y ago
Interesting article. In late March I built a simple SEIRD model for a few US states with python. It was very difficult to estimate R0. R0 is essentially Beta/Gamma, where Beta^-1 is is time between contacts and Gamma^-1 is the time unt
30.
by squidproquo 6y ago
I ran some SEIRD epidemiological simulations (I'm not an expert nor in that field), but the death rate in the NY region was indicating a R0 between 4 and 6, not the 2.5 or so I've seen in a bunch of places. Obviously, population d

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