8 ms·

If it's the case that prediction market traders were trying to front-run the market outcomes, the prediction markets should put the fix on their end by locking

If it's the case that prediction market traders were trying to front-run the market outcomes, the prediction markets should put the fix on their end by locking down trading before a market closes with some time buffer to prevent this.

blurgo 2mo ago
[dead]
eru 2mo ago
Why should that be necessary? You can unilaterally stop trading 'before a market closes with some time buffer to prevent this.' No need for centralised action.
- brookst 2mo ago
  Because markets succeed or fail based on perceived fairness. It is in a prediction market’s best interest to not become the place where you go to get fleeced. Today they’re the Wild West and run like the early days of darknet markets, but if the
  - fhdkweig 2mo ago
    Could you please rephrase your last sentence? I appears to be incomplete.
  - eru 2mo ago
    > Because markets succeed or fail based on perceived fairness. Commodities markets in the US only got anti-insider-trading rules very recently. I don't think fairness perceptions have changed much?
Cthulhu_ 2mo ago
That's assuming the prediction markets all play fair and by the same rules. If Polymarket were to do that, its competition could choose not to. Since these exchanges are not tied to any one country (or jurisdiction), its users would jump ship. Because the users don't care. See also stock market trading, where companies would go to great lengths to shave nanoseconds off of getting information and putting in trades. Now apply this min/maxing to worldwide, unregulated and anonymous. This is what tech libertarians / cryptobros want.