pembrook

6 ms·

1.
by pembrook 3d ago
To be fair, his takes on the Ukraine war from the covid days have aged very well, and were contrarian to mainstream narratives at the time.
2.
by pembrook 3d ago
I don't agree with Sacks on a lot but he's 100% correct here. I heavily use frontier models daily, and quite frankly their capabilities are just not very relevant outside of a narrow subset of software engineering tasks and the pr
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by pembrook 5d ago
Do you care to elaborate on what “this” is that is so bad? And just out of curiosity, have you come to this opinion independently through your own research? Or is this just regurgitated sentiment you’re memetically repeating to signal in-gr
4.
by pembrook 5d ago
Yes and Nordea has predicted housing prices will start to climb again every quarter for the last 3 years. Next quarter I guess! Electricity demand will likely stay well under the lower end of those estimates, but its good that estimating is
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by pembrook 5d ago
Coal usage is rapidly declining in Estonia too: https://www.enerdata.net/estore/energy-market/estonia/
6.
by pembrook 5d ago
Finland’s electricity consumption is not projected to rise rapidly. Finlands energy use in general is in decline, their economy isn’t growing and neither is their population: https://www.treasuryfinland.fi/annualreview2022
7.
by pembrook 6d ago
Finland doesn't get the rest of its power from coal, they're one of the greenest energy markets on the planet.
8.
by pembrook 6d ago
Before the American tinfoil-hat data center nuts comes out in force: - This is a plant that was going to be decommissioned without investment - Finland is a rational country due to their small size and unfortunate proximity to Russia. They
9.
by pembrook 6d ago
What details of the criticism? The comment I replied to had nothing to rebuttal, it was communicating a general mood with zero supporting evidence.
10.
by pembrook 6d ago
Some things have objectively gotten worse. Not EVERYTHING as this site would lead you to believe.
11.
by pembrook 7d ago
If even their modest scenario becomes consensus by next year, the market will 2X or more. They could easily leverage that to 10X returns. Their business is not going to 10X cash flows next year, so yes, that would be the smart move if they
12.
by pembrook 7d ago
"We're confident our technology will 10X GDP growth, we just need you to disable javascript first. That one we couldn't figure out."
13.
by pembrook 7d ago
Because the market is forward-looking, and brings all future cashflows to the present. If it became clear by 2027 that GDP growth would permanently reach 15% (I didn't make that absurdly stupid chart, they did), S&P 500 valuations
14.
by pembrook 7d ago
This could be the most cringe main-character-syndrome thing I've ever seen produced by a company in the history of silicon valley. And the people treating this as serious economic forecasting rather than a marketing puff post are even
15.
by pembrook 8d ago
Can you offer a believable rebuttal to any of my statements? AfD just had a historic victory in Germany, France is leaning the same direction, etc. Just those two are 40% of the EU economy, and do you think them both turning ethno-nationali
16.
by pembrook 8d ago
Yea people tend to give Apple the benefit of the doubt because they’re the most successful and valuable company in human history. Mistral is not Apple, and is not emulating their strategy. Please show me Mistral’s half a $Trillion in year
17.
by pembrook 8d ago
On its own, all regulations usually look reasonable. It’s when you stack over 100,000 regulations (this is literally the number the EU has created) on top of each other and then combine them with country level regs that you create a system
18.
by pembrook 9d ago
If there’s one thing the legacy, dying industrial companies of Europe love, it’s consulting. So they’ll probably make more money creating PowerPoints with ChatGPT than they will trying to compete with the US and China. Which would be the mo
19.
by pembrook 11d ago
A loose canon for text generation where you can just unplug the server.
20.
by pembrook 11d ago
A lot of the progress on the frontier has been made using agent swarms. So the story is basically: "Thing that was designed to collaborate with other agents collaborated with other agents"
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by pembrook 11d ago
Let's not be hyperbolic and manufacture more virality for OpenAI's marketing team. We're talking about outdated message board comments, not murder. Any analogy between the two is not suitable. I'm so sick of everybody pr
22.
by pembrook 15d ago
This is the most bizarre and trivial line of argument I’ve ever seen on HN. Swapping those words changes nothing about that sentence.
23.
by pembrook 15d ago
Because a sincere discussion of media (a fundamentally insincere medium with perverse incentives) is silly without addressing this. Autistically pretending the world is rational and not factoring this in is just as false as Zitron’s predic
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by pembrook 15d ago
The fact that you know Ed Zitron's name means that, regardless of his predictions being consistently wrong (which they are), his strategy for manipulating human attention has been correct. The question is whether he sincerely believe
25.
by pembrook 22d ago
HN is no longer a place of people with nuanced opinions. During Covid it got overrun by normies and redditors during the mass reddit exodus. Since then it's become basically a typical leftist ragebait-driven subreddit on a different do
26.
by pembrook 22d ago
The tax won't actually create the desired outcome though. In practice the tax is basically just a wealth transfer from the private sector to the state, who will use that money to dump into boomer pensions and not invest in packaging i
27.
by pembrook 22d ago
Please cite ANY evidence that Amazon, Epstein, Aliens, etc. had anything to do with this particular EU packaging nightmare...and that it wasn't wholly due to the bike shedding nature of a massive incomprehensible bureaucracy.
28.
by pembrook 22d ago
I’m no fan of big tech, but, at some point the conspiratorial bending over backwards to blame big business instead of the government representatives creating the actual harm gets ridiculous. Again, I often sympathize with the left leaning
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by pembrook 23d ago
If you need to both: a) exempt companies with under 50 employees to not kill small business AND b) are okay with doing so, ie. there's little consequences from exempting companies from this Then this is the mark of a terrible piece of
30.
by pembrook 1mo ago
OP doesn't either. You haven't answered the question.

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