nathan_young

7 ms·

1.
by nathan_young 2y ago
If there is interest here I may add other streams. Would you sign up to such a site?
2.
by nathan_young 2y ago
Happy to answer questions as to the sources used (Kalshi and Metaculus) and the conditional probabilities assigned: - P(bird flu as bad as covid | 10,000 US cases) = .5 - P(bird flu as bad as covid | CDC travel advisory) = .1
3.
Bird Flu Risk Dashboard Using Prediction Markets (Current Risk "Low Chance")(birdflurisk.com)
30 points by nathan_young 2y ago|4 comments
4.
by nathan_young 2y ago
They came out of Manifold. Though I acknowledge that doesn't really answer your question.
5.
by nathan_young 4y ago
Ad what % is it crazy shit? I'm at about 7% of human disempowerment/exctinction, so it probably won't happen. Am I crazy?
6.
by nathan_young 4y ago
According to a study of 700 ML researchers (not AI safety) the median chance that that the long-run effect of advanced AI on humanity will be “extremely bad (e.g., human extinction)" is 5%. And 48% of respondents gave an answer of 10%
7.
by nathan_young 7y ago
If you see any tech tools or data please add them here: Coronavirustechhandbook.com
8.
Crowdsourced list of tech projects relating to Coronavirus. Please add yours(coronavirustechhandbook.com)
4 points by nathan_young 7y ago|0 comments
9.
by nathan_young 7y ago
A lot of these tools have very little money or support. Some of them have had 1m+ views last election. If something interests you, you could offer to help the developers involved. (disclosure: I am involved in the project)
10.
by nathan_young 7y ago
Please add it in.
11.
by nathan_young 7y ago
We (Newspeak House) would love to see one created. If you know people in that space, put up some tech and share it. Feel free to use our template if you credit us.
12.
by nathan_young 7y ago
Feel free to edit text to note if tools are biased/add tools with different biases. (disclosure, I helped initiate the doc)