5 ms·
Happy to answer questions as to the sources used (Kalshi and Metaculus) and the conditional probabilities assigned: - P(bird flu as bad as covid | 10,000 US cas
by nathan_young 2y ago
Happy to answer questions as to the sources used (Kalshi and Metaculus) and the conditional probabilities assigned:
- P(bird flu as bad as covid | 10,000 US cases) = .5
- P(bird flu as bad as covid | CDC travel advisory) = .1