mathdev

14 ms·

31.
by mathdev 6y ago
No country does enough testing to make empirical death rates informative.
32.
by mathdev 6y ago
> So if we assume half the ship caught it, that could cut the numbers in half again. Actually by a factor of four if we assume that the virus managed to reach everyone it was going to reach on the cruise ship and doesn't spread bett
33.
by mathdev 6y ago
Right, we should listen to specialists, unless they contradict the mass panic.. It really is hopeless.
34.
by mathdev 6y ago
The number comes from the column named "symptomatic cases requiring hospitalisation"
35.
by mathdev 6y ago
The 510k deaths figure assumes 80% get infected (upper bound given by models and no mitigation whatsoever) and 1% mortality. The actual mortality is almost certainly significantly lower - the Oxford's CBM estimates 0.2% [1], so twice a
36.
by mathdev 6y ago
Voluntary isolation and support system for at-risk people (and possibly denial of care to those who choose not to isolate). Something along the lines of what the UK had been planning to do.
37.
by mathdev 6y ago
It's an ethical, not epidemiological question.
38.
by mathdev 6y ago
Likewise.
39.
by mathdev 6y ago
Both, but also with including the time spent under house arrest in life expectancy with full weight, disregarding the side-effects and tail risks of such isolation imposed on everyone, both social and economic. Most of all, with the irratio
40.
by mathdev 6y ago
> But I have a 4.9% chance of being hospitalized You are not taking into account the asymptomatic rate, among other mistakes.
41.
by mathdev 6y ago
It is amazing how the whole society can spiral into madness almost overnight. The COVID histeria reminds me of descriptions of the mood among the Hutu people in Rwanda in 1994, also driven by fear instilled by the media. We still have some
42.
by mathdev 7y ago
Of course there is.
43.
by mathdev 7y ago
Took Hubei nearly two months with a complete shutdown. The West cannot do anything remotely close to a complete shutdown due to different social order and there being multiple loci of infection. Therefore, the measures will be exponentially
44.
Can freedom, prosperity return at all?(motls.blogspot.com)
1 points by mathdev 7y ago|0 comments
45.
by mathdev 7y ago
> I suspect this has happened in China and South Korea How could it have if only a negligible fraction of the population caught it?
46.
by mathdev 7y ago
I thought it was going to be about training an economist.
47.
by mathdev 7y ago
I hope not. Much too late, I recently realised that I probably would not survive my WhatsApp history getting out.
48.
by mathdev 7y ago
Congrats, these micro (or nano ;) business success stories are the most inspiring.
49.
by mathdev 7y ago
I guess running a bootstrapped (small) online business with low touch sales.
50.
by mathdev 7y ago
Perhaps flogging would achieve the same goal while being financially neutral.
51.
by mathdev 7y ago
It has definitely reduced the tracking. Due to degraded usability I use European websites less, so fewer companies have my data.
52.
Ask HN: Are there any ways to approximate university learning experience?
3 points by mathdev 7y ago|1 comments